Sales of new homes plunged in October versus the ORIGINAL BULLSHIT number reported last month. This number was revised DOWN by 20,000 homes. Now the MSM will spin this as a Sandy effect, even though they knew about Sandy when they were projecting a number of 390,000. They only missed by 6%. Well guess what? Sandy hit on the freaking last day of the freaking month. It’s impact on new homes sales was negligible. But the MSM needs to keep their housing recovery storyline going. Home prices always fall 4.2% during a recovery. Right?
So new home sales are now running 74% below 2005 levels and we are having a housing recovery? And this is with the lowest mortgage rates in the history of the country. New home sales are at 1970 and 1982 recession lows with a 110 million more people living in the country than in 1970. Don’t you need to apply for a mortgage when you buy a home? How can mortgage applications be running 20% below the 2009 recession levels if there is a housing recovery?
There is no housing recovery. It’s a storyline being spewed by the MSM, Wall Street shysters and government officials in order to boost consumer confidence and artificially increase prices, so the banks can dump their millions of foreclosed homes onto the clueless dupes who think we are really on the verge of another housing boom. So it goes.
U.S. new-home sales in September revised down
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. declined 0.3% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 368,000, with a large drop in the Northeast, hit by Hurricane Sandy, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported Wednesday.
The pace is up 17.2% from the prior year. The sales pace in September was revised down to 369,000 from a prior estimate of 389,000. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected new-home sales in October to remain steady at a rate of 390,000 on more demand and lean inventories.
The median sales price in October declined 4.2% to $237,700 and is up 5.7% from October 2011. The supply of new homes increased to 4.8 months at October’s sales rate from 4.7 months in September. By region, sales in October fell 32% in the Northeast and 12% in the South. Monthly sales rose a record 62% in the Midwest and 9% in the West. Overall, the pace of new-home sales remains relatively low compared with a peak rate of almost 1.4 million in 2005.
Administrator says:
THE SPIN ABOUT SANDY WAS IMMEDIATE. HOW DID SANDY RESULT IN THE MASSIVE DOWNWARD REVISION FOR SEPTEMBER?
Surprise: Right After The Election, New Home Sales Tumble From Downward Revised Two Year High
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/28/2012 10:22 -0500
There are those who may be surprised that last month’s number of Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales, which was then reported at 389K, and which number hit the airwaves days before the Obama reelection, was the highest since April 2010. We are not among them, as we were fully expecting today’s number to be a major revision of the September number lower – as just happened, with the whopper of a print revised far lower to 369K – but doubled down with the additional miss of expectations of Seasonally Adjusted annualized new home sales of 390K for October when in reality only 368K were sold. All these numbers are annualized. When observed on an as is basis, in October there was a grand total of 29,000 new homes sold in the entire USA, with the Northeast representing a whopping… 2,000 of this. Oh and of the 29,000 houses sold, 9,000 were not even started. And finally, for those who enjoy pointing out the rise in home prices driven only and exclusively by foreclosure inventory stuffing and removal of all such real estate from the open markets, both the median and average new home price ($237,700 and $278,900) printed at at the lowest since June. Oh wait, we know: Sandy’s fault. Which explains all bad data. When the data is good, it is nobody’s fault.
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28th November 2012 at 10:49 am
AWD says:
You forgot to mention this illusionary housing number was issued right before the election. It was a lie created by Obama’s minions to make him look good right before clueless idiot FSA members showed up at the polls to once again vote themselves free shit.
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28th November 2012 at 11:53 am
Eddie says:
I’ve started reading about a move to cut the second home mortgage deduction. It will be interesting to see how that flies, since the 1%, including congressmen, all have second homes…and since Bernanke and the Fed are working so HARD to re-inflate the real estate bubble.
If the deduction is eliminated, that would likely drive a stake through the heart of the real estate market.
So…does the “need” for more tax revenue trump the need for housing related jobs? That’s what it boils down to. My guess is that revenue shortfalls are going to be ever more shocking as we descend into the next phase of our ongoing Greater Depression.
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28th November 2012 at 12:38 pm
BUCKHED says:
In the little one horse town I live in the average house was was going for 88K at the peak of the housing market. We had 4 houses sold in foreclosure for under 25K. in the past 4 months…the housing recovery ran over this town on its way out .
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28th November 2012 at 1:09 pm
Celtic Tiger says:
The TPTB are desperate to keep house prices high to prevent a collapse in local property tax revenues. And the easy credit of recent decades has helped churn out trillions of extra income and sales taxes for all levels of government. Follow that money!
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28th November 2012 at 1:35 pm
llpoh says:
Why would anyone build a new home given the number of established homes that are for sale/vacant. I mean, they are going for almost nothing in Detroit!
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28th November 2012 at 6:55 pm
TeresaE says:
What a shock!
You mean that the good times were overestimated thus making O look like he did a better job than he did, overestimated to keep the conductor of the TBTF and realtor and local property tax collector in business at least past the election, so their gravy train doesn’t stop?
Get the hell outta here! No way!
no shit. Anyone that is surprised deserves the shitstorm that will someday rain upon them.
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28th November 2012 at 7:04 pm
llpoh says:
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28th November 2012 at 7:09 pm
Leobeer says:
Housing recovery — yeah right.
In fact, the actual number of new homes “sold” was 29,000. I say “sold” because the Census Bureau counts a “sale” when the contract is signed, regardless of whether or not financing is in place. Of that number, 9,000 were not yet started, 10,000 were under construction and 10,000 were finished but not necessarily delivered. From my last post on this, the cancellation rate of new home contracts was, in general, in the low 20% range. Based on subsequent homebuilder quarterly reports, the cancellation rate is closer to 30%, with Beazer reporting a 31% cancellation rate. This means that OF THE 29,000 CONTRACTS SIGNED, it is highly probable that only 20,000 will actually close and be delivered. If you annualize this number straight up, you get 240,000 actual homes sales
to read the entire article :
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/
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28th November 2012 at 8:34 pm
Bruce says:
In light of all we know, all the possible problems and costs we face with energy it might make sense to build a new home if you have the cash. If you build the right house in the right spot.
That new home would consider the orientation of the structure, efficient design, incorporate some solar and or wind, use appropriate materials, have a well, a septic system and land enough for a garden.
A new home can be built at a very competitive cost ( especially if some concession to size is taken) that will use minimal amounts energy and still be livable and comfortable for the most part if the grid goes away. It does not have to look like a Euro Box either.
With the few new homes I see being built not one lesson of efficient design, orientation, gridless technology passive or active or high performance material is being incorporated………….nothing. Stupid fucking people.They go right out and build brand new conventional homes when all the possibilities to build super efficient are at their disposal, easy and cost effective when building a new structure. They think efficiency is having Energy Star Appliances and E Glass. When the SHTF these homes will be freezers in the winter, boilers in the summer and have no water or sewage capability. No ability to refrigerate food or heat water. In other words mostly uninhabitable. By building smart if the shit never hits the fan one would still save a ton of money, have a very comfortable home and glide right through minor power outages or water utility disruptions.
It is a great source of comfort to us that even though our home was built long before our recognition and acceptance of the imminent Doom that if the power is gone we will have heat, water and be able to cook. We will also be able run the refrigerator and freezer with out a problem as long as they still work.
I don’t think people will ever build very many truly efficient homes. The Shit will hit the Fan long before their dull minds can wrap around the idea. The media has people convinced that Off Grid Homes or Near Off Grid Homes are not possible without extravagant costs, many sacrifices to comfort and convenience or are only for eccentric misfits. Nothing could be further from the truth. Except for maybe the eccentric part because not being a conformist drone is eccentric and odd in the collective these days.
The main issues in some areas with the most ultra efficient concepts is not the possibilities or cost but completely fucked up zoning laws and government bureaucrats that fear that by allowing exceptions or authorizations of something they haven’t seen before they will jeopardize their FSA career paths or its just too much work to verify and check out all the details of a new idea.
To build or buy a conventionally built new home at this point in time is the big shinny badge of a moron. The bigger the home the bigger the badge. To build right or buy cheap enough to retrofit is a good idea because that’s a very probable requirement to survival the near future. Not a guarantee of survival but an important element that will boost ones chances from extremely poor to not quite as extremely poor.
Not that it will be all that great as Doom always sucks, but if you’re just the least bit curious what the world will be like after a massive reduction of sheeple, the total extinction of Wal-Mart shoppers and the elimination of the FSA in designer athletic shoes with Obama phones you will do everything possible to make it through to have a look see. Having a reasonably sustainable home will be of some help.
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28th November 2012 at 1:23 am