A new home sale is recorded when a contract is signed. These homes haven’t even had a closing. Only 10,000 of them are actually built. The MSM actually has the balls to declare this pitiful display as a housing recovery. I’m sure the PLUNGE in consumer confidence bodes well for home sales and the fantastic after Christmas sales at JC Penney.
Consumer Confidence Plunges, Unadjusted New Homes Sales Slide To Lowest Since February
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/27/2012 10:19 -0500
Just as we saw with UMich, it appears the hope for change is wearing thin among the people. Today’s Consumer Confidence data missed by its biggest margin in 7 months, dropped below the year’s average, and saw the largest 2-month drop in over 15 months. All age cohorts lost confidence with the eldest most and it appears those earning over $35k are also beginning to worry (as those between $35k and $15k seem more confident). Over 40% expect stock prices to decline and it is expectations that have plummeted from a hope-filled 80.9 to a 13-month low of 66.5.
In other news, we got the November New Homes Sales report from the Census Bureau. On the surface the number was good, if a slight miss to expectations of 380K, printing at 377K, up from 361K in October, and “the highest in years.” As we said on the surface. Because like the Initial Claims data earlier, where we subsequently learned that the DOL had to estimate the claims data of 19 states (!) as their labor offices were closed for the holiday, it is digging into the data that reveals the reality once more. Sure enough, on an unadjusted, unannualized basis, November saw a tiny 27K houses sold, of which just 2K in the northeast, and 3K in the Midwest. Furthermore, of these 27K actual new home sales, which by the way was the lowest number of home sales since February 2012, 9K were homes still under construction, and 8K were not even started, with just 10k homes completed and now sold. Digging further, on page 3 we found the dreaded (Z) designator in the $750,000 and over category, meaning that a negligible (taken to mean under 500 but usually implying 0) homes were sold in the $750,000 and higher price range. In fact, the only thing that really did soar was the number of homes for sale at the end of the period which rose to 151K: the highest since November of 2011. Yet magically the median month for sale since completion dropped to a tiny 5.3 months, down from 7.2 a year ago. It’s a miracle what a few million mortgages in the “foreclosure stuffing” pathway will do to shadow and real inventory.
Administrator says:
Posted 2012-12-27 10:18
by Karl Denninger
Consumer Confidence 65.1
No, really?
Confidence collapsed to 65.1 .vs. expectations of 70. Note that “100″ is neutral, so the mood of the consumer is definitely in the “gutter, but not quite in the crapper” category.
The usual blame game will likely spin this as “fiscal cliff” anxiety.
Nonsense.
The truth is the the so-called “economic recovery” has been false for the last three years; instead of actual recovery The Federal Government has, with an assist by The Fed, handed out “free money” and thus made people feel better.
For a while.
But let’s face reality: You don’t feel good sitting on your glutes and sucking beer. You accomplish nothing (other than being a sponge) doing that. You get soft, both mentally and physically.
This morning Reid is back out in the Well of The Senate preaching about Boehner and The House not being in session. Mr. Reid, go **** yourself with a chainsaw — you are the douchebag that has refused to pass a budget, the single legislative act you must undertake as a Constitutional duty, for the last three years!
Reid’s ass should be impeached and then jailed for that crap. He has absolutely no room to preach at anyone about anything. And the responsibility is ours for standing by and putting up with this crap, not to mention the people in his state that keep sending him back to The Senate.
The truth is that Washington DC is utterly incapable of telling the truth — on both sides of the aisle. Neither Democrat or Republican will stand at the lectern and deliver the truth: We lied. We promised you, the people, that which we knew we couldn’t pay for. We’re mendacious jackasses and we take responsibility for our actions. Fire us if you wish, but you must either pay twice as much in taxes, from top to bottom, or you must accept much less in government services — roughly half of what is doled out now.
You’re not going to hear that, and as a consequence consumer “confidence” is going to continue to sour — and it should!
I think the market has this wrong and the consumer has it right. We’re headed for a big dive here as there’s no deal that’s going to get passed that will matter and without Congress and The White House stepping to the lectern and telling the truth there is no solution.
The consumer is right on this one — and the market wrong.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
8 
0
27th December 2012 at 12:30 pm
cahuitabeachbound says:
I don’t get something. Why would anyone build a new home when the market is so saturated. I understand if you’re wealthy and want a custom custom home but where is the market for 2 million dollar and under new builds?
Like or Dislike:
3 
0
27th December 2012 at 5:56 pm
display home for sale says:
Hi,
Thanks for the share of this useful information and i liked your blog design.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
27th December 2012 at 12:56 am