By Andria Cheng, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — It doesn’t look like the new year will greet retailers on a welcome note.
Retailers, scheduled to report their critical December same-store sales on Thursday, will likely show disappointing results hurt by factors including declining consumer confidence tied to Washington’s fiscal-cliff uncertainty, analysts said Monday. See related on consumers’ latest expectations as compiled by the Conference Board.
Consensus estimates for December, according to Retail Metrics data, fell another 0.2 of a percentage point on Monday for both same-store sales and same-store sales excluding drug stores — to increases of 1.9% and 3.7%, respectively. Retail Metrics noted that the average analyst estimate has declined by 0.6 of a percentage point from the start of the month.
ReutersA man walks past a shop while carrying a shopping bag in New York the day after Christmas. The 2012 holiday season may have been the worst for retailers since the financial crisis, with sales growth likely to come in far below expectations, forcing many to offer massive post-holiday discounts in hopes of shedding excess inventory.
“This is significant downward move to sales estimates for the most important month of the year,” said Retail Metrics president Ken Perkins, noting that December alone represents about one-fifth of total annual sales.
The gain would mark retailers’ worst December performance since 2008, Perkins told MarketWatch.
With two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, retailers, without must-have items to entice shoppers, also experienced a big lull following consumers’ initial fervor seen over Thanksgiving weekend fervor as more procrastinated in their holiday shopping, analysts said.
Meanwhile, a bout of colder weather in late December didn’t look to salvage warmer-than-average temperatures seen earlier in the month that hurt demand for heavy coats and other cold-weather merchandise. All in all, December has shaped up to be the second warmest in more than 21 years for the U.S. as a whole, according to Weather Trends International.
Consumers’ mood to visit malls and shop also was hurt by the mass shooting at a Newtown, Conn., school, they said. See related story on ShopperTrak cutting holiday forecast.
The dampened mood is cutting into estimates across the discount, department-store and apparel segments. Among individual retailers, analysts have lowered consensus estimates on Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS) , Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE:KSS) and Macy’s Inc. (NYSE:M) as well as Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE:LTD) , the parent of Victoria’s Secret and T.J. Maxx parent TJX Cos. (NYSE:TJX) , Retail Metrics data showed.
‘Short of plan’
Retailers had hoped they would make up business in December after Hurricane Sandy, the superstorm that devastated parts of the Northeast, hurt their November receipts. Retailers’ November miss raises holiday stake.
“We believe December same-store sales trends fell short of plan,” said UBS analyst Michael Binetti, who cut estimates on Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN) besides on Macy’s and Kohl’s.
A late-month “sales rally wasn’t sufficient to hit planned sales targets. Weather-sensitive Kohl’s has the most [sales] downside. Macy’s strong e-commerce business and aggressive extended hours pre-Christmas strategy helped fight sluggish mall traffic in the month,” Binetti wrote. High stakes in retailers’ post-Christmas hustle.
Analysts also cut their fourth-quarter sales view on struggling J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE:JCP) , which doesn’t report monthly sales, to a 24.9% drop following a 26% decline in the third quarter, Retail Metrics data showed.
Meanwhile, electronics retailer Best Buy Co. (NYSE:BBY) , facing the possibility of a buyout pending its holiday sales results, was expected to report a 3% fourth-quarter drop, Retail Metrics data showed. See related story on Best Buy.
Still, while sales may have suffered a setback, analysts said better inventory control and mostly planned promotions so far in the season, coupled with lower cotton costs, are likely going to keep retailers’ profit margin mostly intact.
It’s a “ho-hum holiday, but margin cushion [is] to allow most to meet [per-share profit] expectations,” said UBS analyst Roxanne Meyer, adding chains such as Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) and Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) were “notably less promotional” in December.
She cut her sales estimates on Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE:ARO) , Gap and Victoria’s Secret.
Analysts have also cut their estimates on discounter Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT) , after the company’s much-touted designer collection in partnership with Neiman Marcus failed to generate expected demand. Target marked the collection off by 50% just about three weeks after the launch at the start of December.
Analysts also said Target’s P-Fresh expanded food assortment and 5% discount given on its Target card purchases provided less of a lift during the holiday period because spending is more geared toward non-essential items during the holidays.
“We expect [Target] sales remained sluggish in aggregate over the holidays amidst a competitive backdrop,” said Robert W. Baird & Co. analyst Peter Benedict.
On the other hand, larger rival Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) . which doesn’t report monthly sales, is regarded as a holiday winner. Pawn shops also a holiday bright spot?
“We believe Walmart had a strong holiday season,” said Gilford Securities analyst Bernard Sosnick. The company “had its best Black Friday and that layaways were greater than a year ago.
“Food and consumables sales benefited from sharper pricing … apparel departments had a good sell-through across much of the U.S.”
Stucky says:
Fuck “Holiday Spending”. I ain’t playing. I spent less than $200 this year …. and my immediate family consiss of 10 human souls. Gifts to ME totalled lessan than $40 …. and THAT was $40 bucks to much, as I requested …. nothing.
This fellow traveler states it better than I. Originally found it cross-posted on RE’s website. Original is here;
http://emtmusings.blogspot.com/2012/12/have-meaningless-holiday-cheap-plastic.html
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HAVE A MEANINGLESS HOLIDAY CHEAP PLASTIC SHIT ON ME.
There was a time, not so long ago, where it seemed the only limiting factor for what you could accomplish was your own laziness. Maybe this idea has always been an illusion, but I don’t think so. A four year college degree doesn’t get you employment now. The only thing you can expect from a four year degree now is a monthly bill that has to be paid. My wife got a four year degree in communications and all it has done has been to generate a $117.63 bill every month which is comparatively low. That’s mostly because she worked and paid $800 a month towards college while she was attending. We have another 10 years to go before her student loan is paid in full. What are we to do now to better our financial situation? What kind of meaningful work is there in our meaningless society? If you were to argue that our civilization has meaning, what kind of meaning would you argue for?
Our lifestyle is dependent on a wealth pump with the intake end rooted by coercive trickery in the third world. It’s come down to a cheap plastic lifestyle assembled in China and imported to America. All of this cheap plastic shit is designed to make it’s way to a landfill where it will outlive the human race as cheap plastic shit. My house is awash in this holiday plastic shit that was generated through a perverse celebration which requires everybody to perpetuate this cheap plastic shit paradigm. The fact that it’s meant to be a celebration of the birth of our salvation is just too ironic for further comment. What does the Winter Solstice have anything to do with cheap plastic shit made in China and Jeebus? Apparently there is a link, or I wouldn’t be literally tripping over it now. To make matters worse half of these gifts just end up going straight back to Wally World where they are exchanged for store credit because trailer park America can’t even abide the cheapness. They’d rather have store credit to buy cheap American beer and cheese puffs so that they can anesthetize their minds from the onslaught of how cheap their lives have become.
I suppose it’s a good thing that all of this worthless crap is so cheap because minimum wage is $7.25 an hour. That’s $290.00 a week gross at 40 hours a week. That’s in the neighborhood of $230 a week take home which is $920 a month. Are they fucking serious with that shit? What the hell are you supposed to do with $920 a month? About the only thing you can do is buy some cheap American beer and cheese puffs at Wally World to go with your kid’s cheap plastic made in China gifts. It’s no wonder America stares at the teevee at night, after working for jack shit at a job that doesn’t matter. All so that we can live in a place that’s not worth caring about and is destined to rot as soon as climate control goes away. That cheap plastic shit is going to outlive our residences.
The only thing the world cares about is money. Have you ever really let that sink in? I remember making the decision, right about the time I dropped out of college with a 4.0 gpa, that I wasn’t going to live my life being concerned about money. I didn’t want to make decisions that had to do with the acquisition of money because it felt so cheap and trivial a thing to be concerned with. I thought there were ideas and causes that needed my attention more than money. I was wrong. Those ideas and causes require money. It’s strange how if you have enough money, than you don’t have to worry about making money because the bankers just give you money. I wish I could live off of the interest from all of the money that I have. But when your bank account looks like it was made in China, all the bankers do is nickel and dime you $5 dollars a month for the privilege of keeping your money there. I had a negative balance in my savings account a couple of months ago from those charges growing more than my “savings.” This is just the way it is. It’s sad.
How is it that I’ve made it to 33 years old and I am just now figuring all of this out? I got married. Somehow that meant buying a house and being concerned with something called a “career.” I wasn’t very good at the career bit. I had one, it lasted about six years until I had to chose between being medicated with a career or not medicated with no career. I chose the later. Now I’m going back to college for the eighth time in my life. Hopefully with my new found knowledge about the way the world works, I’ll be able to actually acquire a degree and a career after said acquisition. It’s not a career that I want. I never once said “self, I think we should be a nurse.” It’s a practical decision that revolves around what the world requires from me. I’m doing it for the money. I’ve never done that before in my life. I’ve never done something so blatantly about money. When I’m studying medical terminology, anatomy and physiology, probability and statistics, and intro to computers this semester it’s all going to be motivated by the end goal of a job that will pay me well for my time. It has nothing to do with my ideals, or about the change I want to see in the world, or about helping people…just money. Just the root of all evil. That’s what I have to concern myself with at 33 years old. Why? Best I can tell it’s because I was so brazen as to want to reproduce and have a family. Apparently that means I have to be concerned first and foremost with money. Because without it…well that doesn’t make me a very responsible family man now does it.
Now here I am, studying to be a nurse. In this case I like the euphemism of RN. RN sounds less gender specific (or how about a murse), which is a quality I like since I don’t have tits that can feed a baby. Where else does the term “nurse” come from? If you think about it I will be nursing my family with money. So my tits will feed them money instead of milk. I wish I could nurse my family by building soil, keeping livestock, and growing food…or farming, but that’s not in the cards. Not for me at least. How foolish of me, all these years thinking that the unexamined life was not worth living. When you examine it, if your going to be honest, what other conclusion can you come to other than that your examination better come up with the rent and utilities. For 750,000 years paleolithic man didn’t have to worry about rent and utilities. Money wasn’t even a concept. Life was a somatic experience with meaning all around. Now the only thing that matters is money, and the only meaning is cheap plastic Chinese pointlessness that lies about waiting to be tripped over. I can hear it now, “yeah, but he had to worry about getting eaten by saber tooth tigers, killing Woolly mammoths, and not freezing to death.” Sounds like a meaningful existence to me. What do we have to worry about now? Taxes, terrorists and football? Inconsequential drivel and cheap plastic Chinese made crap.
I’ve got an announcement to make (you must be pretty bored if you’ve made it this far)…cheap plastic Chinese made crap (for good measure, and to help drive my point home). I managed to get diagnosed by a psychiatrists with Aspergers syndrome. That’s right, I’m officially an Aspie. Just barely mind you. It wasn’t an easy case, but at the end of the day I met all of the criteria as outlined by the DSM5- 299.80. Presence of: A2,3, 4. B 1 and C,and absence of: D, E and F. I was right. At least I’m justifiably different from the rest. I have a reason for this shittier than usual attitude. I have just enough Aspie to make me intolerably in the world, but not enough to make it a disability to get me off of the hook that’s attached to the rent. Finally I have a psychological reason for not liking my own species much. Still, I have to buckle down, and go out into the pointlessness to extract money so that I can have a family. The only way to extract that money is to participate in yet more pointlessness. When society is soulless can there ever be any hope of meaningful activity? How fucked is it that the last thing I want to do is to deal with people (here again explained by Aspergers) and yet just about any work I could get will require me to deal with people. Our society is a service one. All we do is make up a bunch of needs and then service them. I’ve been thinking that maybe I’ll try to get a job at a grocery store since at least eating is a need that has to be met. A nuclear engineer turned medic turned grocery store clerk. You don’t really have to deal with people. Just ring up their shit and say “have a nice day.” Maybe I could get a job stocking shelves. That would be even better. Talk about wasted talent. Yet I never found a job that was worth any talent. Eventually I’ll be nursing, which will occasionally provide me with the opportunity to do something worth while, granted only occasionally. At least I’ll be paid well for my effort. I’ll just have to learn to become impervious to the rude patients who view the hospital more like a hotel than a hospital. I was thinking I might like to be a hospice nurse. At least then people will be dying and less prone to acting like ass holes. It should help keep my life in perspective as well. Plus, being an Aspie, I don’t suffer much from empathy, which is a positive attribute when seen from this angle. I’m just trying to focus on my strengths.
That’s gonna be some time from now, given I reach that point in time. Our society isn’t exactly healthy. What do I have to bitch about really? I’ve got a roof over my head and food in my belly. So what if I have to go out and spend my priceless time on this Earth cultivating and fostering a lifestyle that’s not worth caring about. The least I could be is grateful for the opportunity to line the man’s pockets. After all, it’s not as if I’m entitled to anything other than taxes. I’m just bitter that my ideas about right living don’t matter at the end of the day. What matters is the acquisition of money. After that, if I’m left with any, I can use it to be the change. That’s the point. Without money, you can’t be the change…not if your me, and definitely not if you have kids depending on you to keep them safe and healthy.
This Monday I’ll be off to fill out applications for a job that will hopefully be more than minimum wage. Grocery stores and restaurants. I could go back to granny snatchin’ but it will only pay $11 an hour, and I’ll have to put up with the smell of lotion and doodoo that’s so ubiquitous in those geezer freezers where we stuff our elderly for big pharma to profit off of until they stop breathing. Granny snatchin’ is too depressing for me to go back to. I’d rather flip burgers at McDonalds where I’ll at least not have to deal with the public. I can just stand there and do a menial task over and over again while not dealing with what it is that I’m actually doing there. Besides, those burgers are no more poisonous than allopathic medicine is (and I won’t be tempted to eat them either). I’ll just go from poisoning people for minimum wage to poisoning people for 60 grand a year right out of school. I think I can deal with people for that amount of money. The most I’ve ever made in my life is $28,000 a year, so I’ll be more than doubling that. That’s 60 grand? $4000 a month take home thereabouts? I’ll be fuckin’ rich, and I get to wear scrubs as a work uniform. My wife will be able to stay home and raise our children, and I’m going to have a lot. If I’m gonna be out there participating in the meaninglessness of a society not worth caring about than I’m going to at least come home to meaning. I’ll have time, and money left over after the bills are paid. That will enable me to afford to be the change I want to see in the world. Great advice Ghandi, but some of us have kids to feed. Granted, I chose to have kids, but isn’t that a large part of the human experience? Aren’t you glad your parents had you? And if you have any siblings, aren’t you glad your parents had them?
So what is the meaning of life? It seems the answer to that question only matters if you can afford to ask it in the first place.
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31st December 2012 at 1:55 pm
AKAnon says:
Is there any chance, no matter how remote, that a significant percentage of the population has finally acquired most of the shit they think they need? I.e., could we possibly be seeing a decrease in the growth of consumerism and consumption? Nah, I didn’t think so.
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31st December 2012 at 2:03 pm
card802 says:
Nothing makes cents:
ABC News three days ago:
WASHINGTON — A measure of the burden of U.S. household debt tumbled in the third quarter to its lowest level in 29 years, which should help free up money for consumer spending and support the economy.
The household debt service ratio — an estimate of the share of debt payments to disposable personal income — fell to 10.61 percent from 10.72 percent in the second quarter, the Federal Reserve said on Thursday.
It was the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 1983.
“Consumers have more money in their pockets to spend, which should be positive for the economic recovery going forward,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, an economist at TD Securities in New York.
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31st December 2012 at 2:04 pm
AKAnon says:
Stuck-we posted at the same time-similar wavelengths, tho. Happy New Year to all.
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31st December 2012 at 2:05 pm
AKAnon says:
Speaking of Chinese made crap; a KMart shopper found a letter from a Chinese slave labor camp in a package of Chinese made crap:http://www.businessinsider.com/kmart-shopper-finds-letter-from-china-2012-12
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31st December 2012 at 2:30 pm
KaD says:
That was me. I have no idea why it did that.
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31st December 2012 at 2:30 pm
youcanthavemyglock says:
Well it WAS the best sale in years……..for Colt, Magpul, Smith&Wesson and all ammo manufacturers. The media just doesn’t want to talk about it, Obama is SOO mad America has stocked up on guns and ammo to last us for next 100 years hahahah
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31st December 2012 at 2:35 pm
Administrator says:
Pawn shops are booming. That must be a sign of a healthy consumer.
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31st December 2012 at 2:38 pm
CHRISTMAS SALES IN THE SHITTER « The Burning Platform « Deals Sales Management says:
[...] reading here: CHRISTMAS SALES IN THE SHITTER « The Burning Platform Comments [...]
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31st December 2012 at 2:47 pm
JIMSKI says:
3 of my best newer customers have pawn shops. 2 were solid middle class guys who have upgraded vehicles to high end Euro and in the case of one guy he did the full upgrade including hair, teeth, and wife. All 3 pay C A S H.
BTW we are MILES from any pawn shops.
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31st December 2012 at 3:26 pm
AWD says:
“Extracting more money from the producers and handing it to the unemployable is a net zero transaction.”
It’s not a “net zero” transaction. It’s taking productive working capital and giving it to parasites to sit on their couch, drink 40′s, smoke cigarettes, pop pain and nerve pills, and stuff themselves with SNAP goodies all day and night. Over $1 trillion a year is spent on Welfare yes $1 trillion per year. Hardly a net zero transaction, more like a black hole. What productive enterprise might have resulted from the $16 trillion we’ve spent so far?
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31st December 2012 at 3:38 pm
AWD says:
When Priced In Gold, The US Economy Is At Depression-Era Levels
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-31/guest-post-when-priced-gold-us-economy-depression-era-levels
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31st December 2012 at 3:49 pm
card802 says:
And the DOW measured in gold is about a 11% drop since 2009.
Inflation, it’s a real bitch.
But hey! It’s at 13,000! MSM said that is GOOD!
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31st December 2012 at 5:54 pm
Anonymous says:
Probably the dumb asses are spending their money on student loans
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31st December 2012 at 5:58 pm
Anonymous says:
At over $1 trillion, U.S. student loan debt came to exceed credit-card debt in 2012.
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31st December 2012 at 5:59 pm
Llpoh says:
At least education has the potential to add value. If student loans are buying good education and arts degrees, there still is no better investment.
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31st December 2012 at 7:02 pm
Hope@ZeroKelvin says:
Well, that matches what I saw at the ritzy Woodlands Mall. Fair amount of foot traffic, not much buying.
My son got two DVDs from amazon (ordered through TBP), my daughter a new laptop for college, I got a top line set of kitchen knives and Mr. HZK got some new rifle scopes (Zeiss).
Everybody else got folding cash in a fancy card.
Tonight, Mr. HZK and I are getting in the hot tub with a good bottle of wine and watch the moon come up, although it is very foggy so far today. The kids are plugged into their computers. With out recent dry conditions, we have a burn ban so no bonfires or fireworks.
Guess that fits with the generally subdued mood of the country.
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31st December 2012 at 7:13 pm
Llpoh says:
“And not art degrees”. Damn wordpress.
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31st December 2012 at 7:15 pm
Llpoh says:
Hope- all the best. Glad you can still afford a good bottle of wine, what with all the crap doctors are going thru. Enjoy.
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31st December 2012 at 7:17 pm
KaD says:
I spent a little for Christmas, but not stupid stuff. My Mom got some chocolates-sugarplums and liquer filled chocolate bottles, salmon meals and seafood chowders, and a basket of lotion and stuff for dry skin. I (we) got the SO’s parents a scratching post and Da Bird for their kitty (purrfectpost.com), and the SO got some spf 30 shirts (sunprecautions.com), and hat and a mug warmer for his coffee. I got a Ruger. Woo hoo!
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31st December 2012 at 7:21 pm
Muck About says:
@HZK + hubby” Be advised, TBP is not the place to post sordid porn descriptions of naked HOT TUB adventures!!!!
These kind of things keep me awake at night dreaming about them! Shame…,
MA
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31st December 2012 at 8:18 pm
Administrator says:
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31st December 2012 at 8:31 pm
Makati1 says:
Humm. Six Christmas cards & postage from the Philippines. Three on-line toys for my grand son, $40. ( Metal Slinky, mouth organ and a gyroscope. Nothing requiring batteries or made of plastic.) $200 by Western Union to my two daughters for Christmas expenses. Total spent in US $240. Total in the Philippines P 900 (~ $20 ). E-mail Christmas greetings for the rest.
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31st December 2012 at 10:57 pm
a cruel accountant says:
I gave everyone 1oz of silver this year.
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31st December 2012 at 11:51 pm
KaD says:
I got my fiend who’s a disabled Vietnam Vet a shipment of bison meat from http://www.wildideabuffalo.com
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31st December 2012 at 1:34 pm