The government put out their sliced, diced, massaged, and manipulated unemployment claims lies this morning. It’s amazing what spits out of their excel spreadsheet model versus what is actually happening. Karl Deninger always posts the UNADJUSTED numbers to see the real picture. Here are the facts:
- The government reported a 4,000 increase in unemployment claims for the week. The real numbers show that 31,479 people actually filed unemployment claims. Just a slight difference. Which number do you believe?
- Now for the really good news. Another 75,500 people fell off the 99 week gravy train. That surely bodes well for the economy.
- Almost 1.5 million Americans are not receiving extended 99 weeks of unemployment today that were collecting one year ago. Of course, the BLS says they have willingly left the workforce and are not really unemployed. All is well.
So we have payroll taxes on those employed going up, we have the number of employed Americans going down, millions falling off the unemployment dole, rising energy and food prices, and full implementation of Obamacare. Sounds like a recipe for an economic boom. Buy stocks.
Administrator says:
Initial Claims Miss Fourth Week In A Row; Prior Week Revised Lower
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/10/2013 08:47 -0500
Initial claims came, saw and missed for the 4th week in a row, printing at 371K, on expectations of a decline from 372K to 365K. As happens at the end of every year when employers turn on the pink sheet machine, the not seasonally adjusted number soared from 490K to 552K in the week ending January 5, a difference to the seasonally adjusted print of 181K. This is to be expected. What was unexpected is that the last week print saw its first downward adjustment in what seems years (it actually is years), with the December 29 week claims number declining from 372K to 367K, probably as a result of all the year end guessing that goes on to assist the other guessing that goes into the seasonal adjustment guessing. In short: everyone is guessing. States that saw a surge in layoffs in the week ended December 29 were MI (+15K) and PA (+12K) due to “Layoffs in the manufacturing industry”, and “Layoffs in the transportation, construction, food and beverage manufacturing, and metals industries.” Finally those claiming extended benefits plunged by 76K in the last week of 2012, putting further pressure on the strength of the US consumer. Overall a report that confirms that 6 years after the start of the Depression, propped by some $15 trillion in central bank reserve liquidity injections the bulk of which has been used to prop stock markets, there is still no actual improvement in the economy.
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10th January 2013 at 10:15 am
Eddie says:
I’m sure a hefty tax increase on anybody with a job woill solve all our problems.
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10th January 2013 at 10:22 am
Wyoming Mike says:
I guess the good news is that by pumping $15 trillion of unearned fresh printed money into the economy, the dollar is worth much more today than 6 years ago. No?
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10th January 2013 at 10:26 am
Eddie says:
Here’s a prediction for 2013:
1. Congress will begin to debate the necessity of some kind of national sales tax.
2. Since everyone knows that sales tax is highly regressive, it will be sold as a “luxury tax”.
3. The definition of luxury will be highly subjective, and it will change over time.
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10th January 2013 at 10:28 am
Dirty Billy says:
Bullish!
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10th January 2013 at 11:16 am
BUCKHED says:
Eddie…..food will soon be a luxury !
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10th January 2013 at 11:36 am
card802 says:
I agree with Eddie. There must be new taxes first.
Just as income tax was first sold to the American public as a tax only on the wealthy, a new VAT or National Sales Tax will be pushed as another way to tax the wealthy, and the idiots will fall for it, again.
That and a new tax on firearms and ammo, you know, to put the purchase of assault weapons out of the reach of gang bangers and other miscreants. As we all know Walmart or Dicks Sporting Goods is the place to go for gang angers.
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10th January 2013 at 12:55 pm
card802 says:
Gang angers?
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10th January 2013 at 12:57 pm
IndenturedServant says:
Admin, can you provide a chart of the number of people getting on disability every month? I wonder how this number will correlate with the number of people running out of extended unemployment.
I_S
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10th January 2013 at 3:59 pm
Administrator says:
IS
I have a post on SSDI planned for tonight or tomorrow.
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10th January 2013 at 4:20 pm
AWD says:
More people are getting on disability than are getting jobs.
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10th January 2013 at 4:24 pm
IndenturedServant says:
Thanks admin.
I_S
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10th January 2013 at 9:22 pm