As soon as I saw the blaring headlines in the MSM about unemployment claims dropping to the lowest level since 2008, my bullshit meter went haywire. PLEASE click this link and look at the numbers for yourself. When you look at the REAL UNMANIPULATED numbers, claims DID NOT decline by 37,000. They went up by 2,360. Initial claims were 555,708. This is actually a 30,000 increase over last year during the same week and 65,000 higher than two weeks prior.
The chart below paints an even darker picture. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits went up by almost 400,000 during the last week in December.
Do any of these figures point to an improving employment picture? Do you believe anything the government or MSM reports? You shouldn’t.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
Administrator says:
The Market Ticker ® Commentary on The Capital Markets Posted 2013-01-17 08:44
by Karl Denninger
+335k, Do You Believe In Magic?
I have trouble believing this, but it is what it is….
In the week ending January 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 335,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,250, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 366,000.
….
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 555,708 in the week ending January 12, an increase of 2,360 from the previous week. There were 525,422 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
So what we have here is on an annual (that is, like-vs-like week — no adjustment required) increase of about 30,000. But the Department of Lies reports a 37,000 claim decrease predicated on alleged “seasonal adjustment”, despite the fact that the raw figures were up 2,360.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
17th January 2013 at 9:05 am
Administrator says:
Initial Claims Drop To 5-Year ‘Old Normal’ Lows On Seasonal Shenanigans
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/17/2013 08:51 -0500
Initial jobless claims saw their biggest beat in almost 4 years to the lowest absolute (seasonally adjusted level) in almost 5 years. The market’s initial reaction was a shrug (is good bad now that the Fed is pinned to jobs or is the market getting wise in the ways of seasonal-adjustment shenanigans?) but now it appears to be buying the new ‘old’ normal (+6 points). In the unadjusted data, things look very different – with a lag, New York (37,189), Georgia (15,354), and North Carolina (13,606) saw major rises in initial claims with only Michigan (-12,536) seeing a decent drop in claims – as we note that non-seasonally-adjusted claims rose notably less than in the prior 4 years, and assuming seasonal-adjustments are triggered from those, this will reflect very rosily on today’s seasonal adjustment. With Claims back to ‘normal’, what will the Fed do?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
17th January 2013 at 9:08 am
JIMSKI says:
Perhaps they are finally filling up all the mass graves with useless eaters? that would explain why the workforce keeps shrinking. Wait that’s eliminating your voting base so THAT’S not the reason.
Perhaps you just do not have the math for this? I spent some time with a theororetical – err theroretical – umm physost – I mean I spent some with a Sheldon Cooper type person and he tried to school me on string theory and his basic tag line was ” you just don’t have the math for this”
Like or Dislike:
2 
0
17th January 2013 at 9:22 am
card802 says:
I don’t believe the reported numbers, I doubt if any TBP readers believe the reported numbers.
I love facebook only because I can piss so many people off that gush over this administration, be it debt ceiling, gun control, or reported numbers. People don’t want facts, they don’t want truth. All they want is to feel good and be entertained.
Bread and circus’s baby!
Anybody see that a few house democrats are pushing legislation to eliminate the debt ceiling?
Everyone of these fucknuts were against Bush raising the debt ceiling, lack of leadership they called it, unpatriotic they called it.
What a circus………
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2013/01/16/democrats-push-bill-to-eliminate-debt-ceiling/
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
7 
0
17th January 2013 at 9:26 am
Maddie's Mom says:
The lies are coming fast and furious now.
I can barely keep up with them all.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
9 
0
17th January 2013 at 10:17 am
JJ3 says:
This is inevitable with any form of government, eventually they all self destruct.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
6 
0
17th January 2013 at 10:45 am
Thinker says:
Mistakes like this mean it’s only a matter of time before more people start to notice the numbers are fudged. Earlier this month, I mentioned my own tracking shows a significant increase in unemployment in late December.
My latest tracking shows credit card delinquencies are increasing. As people are faced with the bills from Christmas (even though they spent less in 2012), they’re finding they can’t pay.
It’s getting even uglier.
Like or Dislike:
3 
0
17th January 2013 at 10:03 am
TheCarMan says:
I noticed this departure in year-to-year SA for quite some time. In January of this year (2013) it became even worse when NSA numbers were over 550,000 two weeks in a row, yet SA numbers were claimed to be a 4-year lows. Is it really so “unexpected” to see the overall rate tick up to 7.9%, which relies less on adjusted data?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
17th January 2013 at 9:52 am