Every manipulated, massaged, seasonally adjusted economic measurement fed to the American sheeple on a daily basis to convince them that the economy is recovering are complete and utter bullshit. It is the government’s job to mislead you and and keep you sedated. They understand the power of the message and know what propaganda techniques work best to keep you in the dark. But there are some facts that cannot be manipulated. The chart below proves that our economy is in freefall. A truly growing economy would require more energy to propel that growth. There would be more people driving to work. There would be more trucks on the road transporting goods. Just the growth in population and number of cars on the road would naturally result in more gasoline usage.
The lying MSM propagandists would spin this as better fuel efficiency and people switching to smaller cars. That is complete bullshit, as the vehicle sales data proves that people are still overwhelmingly buying SUVs, pickup trucks and luxury automobiles that get less than 20 mpg. Gasoline usage is 7% below the levels of 2006 and plunged in 2012 by 100 million barrels. Gasoline usage does not plunge when the economy is really growing. When GDP is truly measured using a real inflation rate, we have never left the recession that began in 2007 and it is getting worse. Do you believe the government storyline or the facts?
ThePessimisticChemist says:
Another good one is the continuing decline of household income.
Even when ignoring the fact that many households now house multiple working age adults, it still looks bad.
Even when counting welfare/SNAP/Medicare as INCOME, the chart STILL looks bad.
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18th January 2013 at 9:40 am
sangell says:
UCLA and some outfit called Ceridian put out something called the Pulse of Commerce that tracks diesel sales at truck stops all across the US. Mish Shedlock has put out some charts that show total fuel consumption is back at 1997 levels. Diesel use is much more strongly connected to actual economic activity because diesel is what moves trains, trucks and heavy equipment.
Most of the economic data we are bombarded with is too narrow and too subjective to be of any use beyond goosing the S&P one way or another.
The serious economic figures are energy consumption and government revenues. If they are going up the economy is expanding. If they aren’t well all the unemployment and GDP rate manipulation in the world can’t hide reality forever.
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18th January 2013 at 9:54 am
AWD says:
Some 30 million people have “left the workforce” and don’t have jobs (other than collect their disability or welfare checks). No jobs means don’t need gas to go to work.
Labor force participation rate:
In the US, while the official unemployment rate is falling, a much better indication of the labor market is the Labor Force Participation Rate– the percentage of people within a society who are engaged in the work force.
It rose steadily for decades after World War II as more and more women entered the work force, peaking in the late 1990s/early 2000s. It has been in terminal decline for the past ten years, having now reached the same level as from the late 1970s.
According to ADP data, the number of people employed in the United States today (111 million) is roughly the same as in 2001. Yet back then, there were about 285 million people in the US. Today there are 315 million people.
So the conclusion is that there has been no growth in the number of jobs, far more people in the country, and far fewer of them ‘participating’ in the work force.
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18th January 2013 at 9:58 am
Administrator says:
Total Petroleum usage at 1997 levels.
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18th January 2013 at 10:00 am
Administrator says:
SURE SIGN OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 13 MONTH LOW
Consumer sentiment declines in January
Gauge comes up well short of economists’ view for an increase
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Led by gloomier views on current conditions, a gauge of consumer sentiment declined in January, hitting the lowest level since December 2011, according to a Friday report from the University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters.
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18th January 2013 at 10:31 am
AWD says:
U.S. wages as a percentage of GDP are at record lows.
Consumer debt has grown since 2011
30 million fewer people working, those that do work have seen their wages fall, and to compensate they have simply gone into more debt. Sounds like a great recovery!
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18th January 2013 at 10:38 am
DaveL says:
C’mon Jim. Everybody knows it was the Cash for Clunkers program that got all the gas guzzlers off the road. And if they don’t know yet, you can be sure the MIC will claim that explanation for the drop in gas usage.
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18th January 2013 at 5:29 pm
Llpoh says:
Diesel truck engines have become much more efficient. Each new generation is something like 7% more efficient than the last. It would indeed have an impact on sales of diesel to trucks. Will look up the stats when I have time.
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18th January 2013 at 5:55 pm
Llpoh says:
A quick review indicates diesel fuel efficiency has increased by around 40% in the last 15 years. I cannot 100% percent confirm the reliability of this but it seems to be about right. As old trucks retire and new trucks hit the road, I am in no doubt there will be a significant drop in diesel used per mile of trucking. And I am in no doubt that it is reasonable that truck fuel use below 1997 levels would relate to improved fuel efficiency.
Sangell – you are drawing conclusions from facts that relate more to increased fuel efficiency than drop in economic activity.
I suspect that cars will begin going to diesel en masse soon. Similar to Europe.
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18th January 2013 at 6:28 pm
Administrator says:
llpoh
Do you think there are more or less diesel trucks on the road than there were in 1997?
The chart in the post is just gasoline. Please explain that drop.
The number of miles driven has plunged. Please explain that.
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18th January 2013 at 7:08 pm
Llpoh says:
Admin – there are more diesel trucks today than in 1997. How many more or how much milage they are doing I have no idea. However, i do know that engines are 40 percent more efficient today. One estimate, if the info is available, woild ge to multiple the use today by 40 percent, and compare to 1997 figue use. This would give an estimate of total milage hauled 1997 vs today.
I know a fair bit about diesel trucks. You can take to the bank what I am saying. You have made a point re cars. I do not know if it is true or otherwise. But you cannot make the same point re trucks. Trucks are much much more efficient today than 15 years ago.
Thems the facts. Yor chart shows around a ten percent drop in gas usage. Here are a few facts: more pick ups are using diesel engines. That would be affecting gas use. I do not know how much. But some.
Is it possible that more small cars are being sold? Maybe. That would affect usage. Hybrids? Yep.
I do not believe anyone can say with certainty that a 10 percent drop means less milage. Other factors are at play. It may ge the case. But I would not bet on it one way or the other without more info.
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18th January 2013 at 7:48 pm
Llpoh says:
I just googled total milage figures. First chart I saw shows an increase in milage driven of around 25 percent from 2000-2010.
Sorry that does not fit our hypothesis.
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18th January 2013 at 7:55 pm
Llpoh says:
“Your hypothesis”.. My hypothesis was that other factors were at work, not necessarily gas efficiency but rather switches to smaller vehicles, hybrids coming on line, more diesels running around, etc.
Damn, I hate it when I am right.
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18th January 2013 at 7:57 pm
Administrator says:
My post is about what has happened since 2006. Miles driven has fallen and has been below the peak in 2006 for 61 consecutive months. Here is the chart. Miles driven has gone up for decades and has now fallen for five years. Miles driven does not fall when an economy is expanding. It is that simple. Gas mileage has nothing to do with it. This includes truck and car miles driven.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/11/dot-vehicle-miles-driven-decreased-15.html
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18th January 2013 at 8:02 pm
Administrator says:
The smaller vehicle hypothesis is obliterated by the facts.
14.5 million vehicles sold in 2012
7.1 million trucks
2.8 million small cars
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html
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18th January 2013 at 8:06 pm
Administrator says:
Just like old times.
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18th January 2013 at 8:09 pm
Llpoh says:
Down .6 percent in 2012, and 1.5 in Sept. 12. Article says it relates to age, as older drivers drive less. I know I am driving about half as much since my kids are at college.
Also, there has been around a ten percent drop in gas use since 2007, but not nearly the same drop in milage.
Admin, there are many more factors at work, and it is not just economy and gas prices causing the drop in gas use.
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18th January 2013 at 8:10 pm
Llpoh says:
I am kicking your ass. As ever. You should have left sleeping big dogs lie. Even your post ed link contradicts you!
“However, as I’ve mentioned before, gasoline prices are just part of the story. The lack of growth in miles driven over the last 5 years is probably also due to the lingering effects of the great recession (high unemployment rate and lack of wage growth), the aging of the overall population (over 55 drivers drive fewer miles) and changing driving habits of young drivers.
This graph from the Federal Highway Administration is based on the National Household Travel Survey shows the miles driven by certain age groups over time. The key is a large group is moving into the older age brackets, so their miles driven will decline – a large group is moving the from the “54 to 58″ age group into the higher age groups.
Also miles driven has been falling for lower age groups over the last few years, and the next survey will probably show that decline. Here is an article on younger drivers: Young People Are Driving Less—And Not Just Because They’re Broke (ht KarmaPolice)
An April study by the U.S. Public Interest Research Group found that between 2001 and 2009 the average annual vehicle miles traveled by Americans ages 16 to 34 fell by close to a quarter, from 10,300 to 7,900 per capita (four times greater than the drop among all adults), and from 12,800 to 10,700 among those with jobs.
…
The PIRG researchers concluded that this change couldn’t simply be pegged to the economy, but indicates a value shift.
With all these factors, it may be years before we see a new peak in miles driven.”
I will let you off the hook. Call it a draw. I win on the diesel and truck point, tho.
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18th January 2013 at 8:14 pm
sangell says:
Population of US in 1997- 268 million
Today over 310 million. 42 million more people.
I’ll tell you where some of the lost fuel consumption went IMO. Housing.
Building home is a fuel intensive exercise. Site preparation, delivering material to the job site uses a lot of fuel. The collapse in new home construction put a big dent in diesel use.
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18th January 2013 at 8:24 pm
Administrator says:
More bullshit. The percentage of people over 55 working has soared since 2007. That would mean more driving by older people. Copying and pasting crap from the Calculated Risk blog doesn’t cut it.
There are less miles being driven because there are 4 million less people employed than in 2007. I think that may have something to do with the economy. There are less businesses operating today than there were in 2007. Is that economic?
The U.S. population has grown by 15 million people since 2007.
GDP has supposedly grown from $14 trillion to $16 trillion since 2007.
How is that possible with less miles driven? (Trucks & cars)
It’s not possible. The GDP and the rest of the numbers reported by the government are fraudulent. I rest my case.
You can now scamper away like a mangy cur after another epic defeat at the hands of Admin.
I hope you aren’t too embarassed and will come back again.
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18th January 2013 at 8:35 pm
Llpoh says:
It was your link! So you are calling your own link bullshit! I win again!
I cannot find total truck miles but anecdotally it looks as if they are up modestly. However, that is not a good measure, as trucks are getting smaller (smaller payloads), in general, based on what I sell to truck companies.
How is that possible he asksre reduced driving and increased GDP. I do not know. But perhaps public transportation? Young people use it more and more. Carpooling? Biking? Those are some possibilities.
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18th January 2013 at 8:44 pm
sangell says:
I suppose older people at some point drive less but you don’t see many young people driving an RV and older people also travel more by boat and plane as our cruise ship travelers have reported to us.
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18th January 2013 at 8:45 pm
Llpoh says:
Public transit up around 5 percent since 06.
I also hypothesize that kids are being ferried around a lot less since 06. That would kill off a lot of miles.
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18th January 2013 at 8:50 pm
Administrator says:
Be gone you mangy cur. Git.
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18th January 2013 at 8:51 pm
Administrator says:
Public transit accounts for about 5% of our travel and is up 5% in 6 years.
That is all you got?
Absofuckinglutely pathetic.
You do really need to retire. You’ve lost your mojo.
You used to put up a good fight before I vanquished you.
Now it’s just sad.
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18th January 2013 at 8:54 pm
Llpoh says:
Well, I have countered a quarter percent with that one argument. Wait til I pound you with bike stats. Each little bit pounds you to dust. Like water erodes a rock. I do not look for a knockout punch, but little body blows til you surrender.
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18th January 2013 at 8:57 pm
Llpoh says:
Bike use has grown 40 or 50 percent since 07. Woohoo, chalk me up some more points. Admin is suffering death by a thousand cuts.
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18th January 2013 at 9:02 pm
Llpoh says:
That looks like another quarter to half percentage point. So I have found almost 3/4 of a percentage of milage change on two states alone. I am kicking ass. Now on to carpool.
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18th January 2013 at 9:06 pm
Llpoh says:
So far I have hit him with age demographics, public transport, fuel efficiency, change from gas to diesel and hybrids, biking, and his own stats and links. Man, I have slowly but surely beat him to a pulp.
His current condition:
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18th January 2013 at 9:12 pm
Administrator says:
Admin approaches llpoh after his pitiful display while Admin was asleep.
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18th January 2013 at 8:39 am
Administrator says:
I long for the good old days when Smokey would give me a decent battle before I crushed him.
Kicking llpoh and SSS around simultaneously on seperate threads barely gets the blood pumping.
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18th January 2013 at 8:41 am
sangell says:
Public transit growth seems to be increasing in tandem with population growth so this doesn’t seem a very promising avenue to explain reduced fuel consumption. I will grant you that many public transit agencies have REDUCED service as a result of budget tightening by their government owners. Having a full sized bus traveling a route with but 3 or 4 passengers on board is a bigger waste of fuel than me driving my Nissan Titan the same distance.
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18th January 2013 at 9:09 am
Llpoh says:
The Admin only gets his blood pumping once a month, pussy that he is.
Yes, Smokey was a worthy opponent. Sad so few take you on these days.
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18th January 2013 at 6:02 pm
SSS says:
I’m not finished with Admin yet over on the feature article.
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18th January 2013 at 12:46 am
Llpoh says:
One of my best insults ever only gets three thumbs up? WTF?
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18th January 2013 at 9:16 pm