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“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley

 

 

Six months ago I wrote an article called Are You Seeing What I’m Seeing?, describing my observations while traveling along Ridge Pike in Montgomery County, PA and motoring to my local Lowes store on a Saturday. My observations were in conflict with the storyline portrayed by the mainstream media pundits, Ivy League PhD economists, Washington politicians, and Wall Street shills. It is clear now that I must have been wrong. No more proof is needed than the fact the Dow has gone up 1,500 points, or 11%, since I wrote the article. Everyone knows the stock market reflects the true health of the nation – multi-millionaire Jim Cramer and his millionaire CNBC talking head cohorts tell me so. Ignore the fact that the bottom 80% only own 5% of the financial assets in this country and are not benefitted by the stock market in any way.

The mainstream corporate media that is dominated by six mega-corporations (Time Warner, Disney, Murdoch’s News Corporation, Comcast, Viacom, and Bertelsmann), has one purpose as described by the master of propaganda – Edward Bernays:

“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.

These media corporations’ task is to use propaganda and misinformation to protect the interests of the status quo. The ruling class has the power to manipulate public opinion, obscure the truth, alter government data, and outright lie, but they can’t control the facts and reality smacking the average person in the face every day. Based on the performance of the stock market and the storyline of economic recovery being peddled by the corporate media, the facts must surely support their contention. Here are a few facts about what has really happened in the last six months since I wrote my article:

  • The working age population has grown by 1.1 million, the number of employed Americans is up 500k, while the number of people who have left the labor force has gone up by 600k. The BLS reports the unemployment rate has fallen without blinking an eye or turning red with embarrassment.
  • The number of Americans entering the Food Stamp Program in the last six months totaled 1 million, bringing the total to 47.8 million, or 20% of all households (up 15 million since the Obama economic recovery began in December 2009).
  • Existing home sales have increased by a scintillating 2.9% on a seasonally adjusted annual basis and average prices have fallen by 6% in the last six months. It is surely a great sign that 32% of all home sales are to Wall Street investors and 25% are either foreclosure sales or short sales. A large percentage of the remaining sales are funded by 3% down FHA government backed loans.
  • There were 31,000 new homes sales in January versus 34,000 new home sales six months prior. Through the magic of seasonal adjustment, this translates into a 15% increase.
  • Single family housing starts were 41,600 in February versus 51,400 six months prior. Even using seasonal adjustments, the government drones can only report a pathetic 4.7% annualized increase and flat starts over the last three months, with mortgage rates at all-time lows.
  • The National Debt has gone up by $750 billion in the last six months, while Real GDP has gone up by less than $150 billion.
  • Real hourly earnings have not increased in the last six months.
  • Consumer debt has risen by $65 billion as the Federal Government has doled out student loans like candy and auto loans (through the 80% government owned Ally Financial – aka GMAC, aka Ditech, aka ResCap) like crack dealer in West Philly.
  • The Federal Reserve has increased their balance sheet by $385 billion in the last six months by buying toxic mortgages from Wall Street banks and the majority of Treasuries issued by the government to fund the $1 trillion annual deficits being produced by the Obama administration. It now totals $3.2 trillion, up from $900 billion in September 2008, and headed to $4 trillion before this year is out.
  • Retail sales have increased by less than 2% over the last six months and are barely 1% above last February. On an inflation adjusted basis, retail sales are falling. Other than internet sales and government financed auto sales, every other retail category is negative year over year. This is reflected in the poor sales and earnings reports from JC Penney, Sears, Best Buy, Wal-Mart, Target, Lowes, Kohl’s, Darden, McDonalds, and Yum Brands. I’m sure next quarter will be gangbusters, with the Obama payroll tax increase, Obamacare premium increases, 15% surge in gasoline prices, and continued inflation in food and energy.

Considering that 71% of GDP is dependent upon consumer spending (versus 62% in 1979 before the financialization of America), the dreadful results of retailers and restaurants even before the Obama tax increases confirms the country has been in recession since the second half of 2012. In 1979 the economy was still driven by domestic investment that accounted for 19% of GDP. Today, it wallows at all-time lows of 13%. In addition, our trade deficits, driven by debt fueled consumption, subtract 3.5% from GDP. These facts are reflected in the depressed outlook of small business owners who are the backbone of growth, hiring and entrepreneurship in this country. Small businesses of 500 employees or less employ half of all the private industry workers in the country and account for 65% of all new jobs created. There are approximately 27 million small businesses versus 18,000 large businesses. The chart below does not paint an improving picture. The small business optimism has dropped from an already low 92.8 in September 2012 to 90.8 in March 2013.

Small business optimism report for March 2013

The head of the NFIB couldn’t make the situation any clearer:

While the Fortune 500 is enjoying record high earnings, Main Street earnings remain depressed. Far more firms report sales down quarter over quarter than up. Washington is manufacturing one crisis after another—the debt ceiling, the fiscal cliff and the Sequester. Spreading fear and instability are certainly not a strategy to encourage investment and entrepreneurship. Three-quarters of small-business owners think that business conditions will be the same or worse in six months. Until owners’ forecast for the economy improves substantially, there will be little boost to hiring and spending from the small business half of the economy. NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg

If consumers, who account for 71% of the economy, aren’t spending, and small business owners, who do 65% of all the hiring in the country, are petrified with insecurity, why is the stock market hitting all-time highs and the corporate media proclaiming happy days are here again? It can be explained by the distribution of wealth and income in this country. Every media pundit, politician, Wall Street shill, Ivy League PhD economist, and corporate titan you see on CNBC, Fox or any corporate media outlet is a 1%er or better. The chart below shows the bottom 99% saw their real incomes decline between 2009 and 2011, while the top 1% reaped the stock market gains and corporate bonuses for using “creative” accounting to generate record corporate profits. The trend in 2012 through today has only widened this gap, as real worker wages have continued to decline and the stock market has advanced another 20%.

The feudal financial industry lords are feasting on caviar and champagne in their mountaintop manors while the serfs and peasants scrounge in the gutters for scraps and morsels. This path has been chosen by the king (Obama) and enabled by his court jester (Bernanke). Money printing and inflation are their weapons of choice. We are living in a 21st Century version of the Dark Ages.

On the Road Again

I’ve been baffled by a visible disconnect between deteriorating data and the storyline being sold to the ignorant masses by the financial elitists that run the show. The websites and truthful analysts that I respect and trust (Zero Hedge, Mish, Jesse, Karl Denninger, John Hussman, David Stockman, Financial Sense and a few others) provide analytical evidence on a daily basis that confirm my view that our economic situation is worsening. We are all looking at the same data, but the pliable faux journalists that toil for their corporate masters spin the data in a manner designed to mislead and manipulate in order to mold public opinion, as Edward Bernays taught the invisible ruling class. As you can see, numbers and statistical data can be spun, adjusted, and manipulated to tell whatever story you want to depict. I prefer to confirm or deny my assessment with my observations out in the real world. I spend 12 hours per week cruising the highways and byways of Montgomery County and Philadelphia as I commute to and from work and shuttle my kids to guitar lessons, friends’ houses, and local malls. I can’t help but have my antenna attuned to what I’m seeing with my own eyes.

As I detailed in my previous article, Montgomery County is relatively affluent area with the dangerous urban enclaves of Norristown and Pottstown as the only blighted low income, high crime areas in the 500 square mile county of 800,000 people. The median household income and median home prices are 50% above the national averages. Major industries include healthcare, pharmaceuticals, insurance and information technology. It is one of only 30 counties in the country with a AAA rating from Standard & Poors (as if that means anything). On paper, my county appears to be thriving and healthy, with white collar professionals living an idyllic suburban existence. One small problem – the visual evidence as you travel along Welsh Road towards Montgomeryville or Germantown Pike towards Plymouth Meeting reveals a decaying infrastructure, dying retail meccas, and miles of empty office complexes.

I don’t think my general observations as I drive around Montgomery County are colored by any predisposition towards negativity. I see a gray winter like pallor has settled upon the land. I see termite pocked wooden fences with broken and missing slats. I see sagging porches. I see leaky roofs with missing tiles. I see vacant dilapidated hovels. I see mold tainted deteriorating siding on occupied houses. I see weed infested overgrown yards. I see collapsing barns and crumbling farm silos. I see houses and office buildings that haven’t been painted in 20 years. I see clock towers in strip malls with the wrong time. I see shuttered gas stations. I see retail stores with lights out in their signs. I see trees which fell during Hurricane Sandy five months ago still sitting in yards untouched. I see potholes not being filled. I see disintegrating highway overpasses and bridges. I constantly see emergency repairs on burst water mains. I see malfunctioning stoplights. I see fading traffic signage. I see regional malls with rust stained walls beneath their massive unlit Macys, JC Penney and Sears logos. I see hundreds of Space Available, For Lease, For Rent, Vacancy, For Sale and Store Closing signs dotting the suburban landscape. These sights are in a relatively affluent suburban county. When I reach West Philly, it looks more like Dresden in 1945.

                      Dresden – 1945                                                     Philadelphia – 2013

 

I moved to my community in 1995 when the economy was plodding along at a 2.5% growth rate. The housing market was still depressed from the early 90s recession. The retail strip centers and larger malls in my area were 100% occupied. Office parks were bustling with activity. Office vacancy rates were the lowest in twenty years during the late 1990s. National GDP has grown by 112% (only 50% after adjusting for inflation) since 1995, with personal consumption rising 122%. Domestic investment has only grown by 80%, but imports skyrocketed by 204%. If the economy has more than doubled in the last 18 years, how could retail strip centers in my affluent community have 40% to 70% vacancy rates and office parks sit vacant for years? The answer is that Real GDP has not even advanced by 50%. Using a true rate of inflation, not the bastardized, manipulated, tortured BLS version, shows the country has essentially been in contraction since the year 2000.

The official government sanctioned data does not match what I see on the ground, but the Shadowstats version of the data explains it perfectly.

My observations also don’t match up with the data reported by the likes of Reis, Trepp, Moody’s and the Federal Reserve. Reis reports a national vacancy rate of 17.1% for offices, barely below its peak of 17.6% in late 2010. Vacancy rates are 35% above 2007 levels and more than double the rates in the late 1990s. But what I realized after digging into the methodology of these reported figures is the true rates are significantly higher. First you must understand that Reis and Trepp are real estate companies who are in business to make money from commercial real estate transactions. It is in their self -interest to report data in the most positive manner possible – they’ve learned the lessons of Bernays. These mouthpieces for their industry slice and dice the numbers according to major markets, minor markets, suburban versus major cities, and most importantly they only measure Class A office space.

I didn’t realize the distinctions between classes when it comes to office space. The Building Owners and Managers Association describes the classes:

Class A office buildings have the “most prestigious buildings competing for premier office users with rents above average for the area.” Class A facilities have “high quality standard finishes, state of the art systems, exceptional accessibility and a definite market presence.” Class B office buildings as those that compete “for a wide range of users with rents in the average range for the area.” Class B buildings have “adequate systems” and finishes that “are fair to good for the area,” but that the buildings do not compete with Class A buildings for the same prices. Class C buildings are aimed towards “tenants requiring functional space at rents below the average for the area.”

So we have landlords self-reporting Class A vacancy rates in big markets to a real estate company that reports them without verification. Is it in a landlord’s best interest to under-report their vacancy rate? You bet it is. If potential tenants knew the true vacancy rates, they would be able to negotiate much lower rents. There is a beautiful Class A 77,000 square foot building near my house that was built in 2004. Nine years later there is still a huge Space Available sign in front of the building and it appears at least 50% vacant.

I pass another Class A property on Welsh Road called the Gwynedd Corporate Center that consists of three 40,000 square foot buildings in a 13 acre office park. It was built in 1998 and is completely dark. The vacancy rate is 100%. As I traveled down Germantown Pike last week I noted dozens of Class A office complexes with Space Available signs in front. I’m absolutely certain that vacancy rates in Class A offices in Montgomery County exceed 25%. When you expand your horizon to Class B and Class C office space, vacancy rates exceed 50%. The only booming business in my suburban paradise is Space Available sign manufacturing. We probably import those from China too. Despite the spin put on the data by the real estate industry, Moody’s reported data supports my estimates:

  • The values of suburban offices in non-major markets are 43% below 2007 levels.
  • Industrial property values in non-major markets are 28% below 2007 levels.
  • Retail property values in non-major markets are 35% below 2007 levels.

The data being reported by Reis regarding vacancies in strip malls and regional malls is also highly questionable, based on my real world observations. The reported vacancy rates of 8.6% for regional malls and 10.7% for strip malls, barely below their 2011 peaks, are laughable. Again, there is no benefit for a landlord to report their true vacancy rate. The truth will depress rents further. This data is gathered by surveying developers and landlords. We all know how reputable and above board real estate professionals are – aka David Lereah, Larry Yun. A large strip mall near my house has a 70% vacancy rate, with another, one mile away, with a 50% vacancy rate. Anyone with two eyes and functioning brain that has visited a mall or driven past a strip mall knows that vacancy rates are at least 15%, the highest in U.S. history. These statistics don’t even capture the small pizza joints, craft shops, antique outlets, candy stores, book stores, gas stations and myriad of other family run small businesses that have been forced to close up shop in the last five years.

The disconnect between reality, the data reported by the mouthpieces of the status quo, and financial markets is as wide as the Grand Canyon. Even the purveyors of false data can’t get their stories straight. Trepp has been reporting steadily declining commercial delinquency rates since July 2012, when they had reached 10.34%, the highest level since the early 1990s. The decline is being driven solely by apartment complexes and hotels. Industrial and retail delinquencies continue to rise and office delinquencies are flat over the last three months. Again, the definition of delinquent is in the eye of the beholder.

The quarterly delinquency rates on commercial loans reported by the Federal Reserve is less than half the rate being reported by Trepp, at 4.13%. Bennie and his band of Ivy League MBA economists have reported 10 consecutive quarters of declining commercial loan delinquency rates. This is in direct contrast to the data reported by Trepp that showed delinquencies rising during 2012.

Real estate loans

All

Booked in domestic    offices

Residential 1

Commercial 2

Farmland

2012:4

7.57

10.07

4.13

2.67

2011:4

8.48

10.34

6.11

3.26

2010:4

9.12

10.23

7.96

3.59

2009:4

9.59

10.54

8.73

3.42

2008:4

6.04

6.67

5.49

2.28

2007:4

2.91

3.08

2.75

1.51

2006:4

1.70

1.95

1.32

1.41

The data being reported doesn’t pass the smell test. Commercial vacancy rates are at or above the levels seen during the last Wall Street created real estate crisis in the early 1990’s. During 1991/1992 commercial loan delinquency rates ranged between 10% and 12%. Today, with the same or higher levels of vacancy, the Federal Reserve reports 4% delinquency rates. When the latest Wall Street created financial collapse struck in 2008 and commercial property values crashed while vacancy rates soared, there were dire predictions of huge loan losses between 2010 and 2012. Commercial real estate loans generally rollover every 5 to 7 years. The massive issuance of dodgy subprime commercial loans between 2005 and 2007 would come due between 2010 and 2012. But miraculously delinquency rates have supposedly plunged from 8.78% in mid-2010 to 4.13% today. The Federal Reserve decided in 2009 to look the other way when assessing whether a real estate loan would ever be repaid. A loan isn’t considered delinquent if the lender decides it isn’t delinquent. The can’t miss strategy of extend, pretend and pray was implemented across the country as mandated by the Federal Reserve. This pushed out the surge in loan maturities to 2014 – 2016.

In an economic system that rewarded good choices and punished those who took ridiculous undue risks and lost, real estate developers, mall owners, and office landlords would be going bankrupt in large numbers and loan losses for Wall Street Too Stupid to Succeed banks would be in the billions. Developers took out loans in the mid-2000’s which were due to be refinanced in 2012. The property is worth 35% less and the rental income with a 20% vacancy rate isn’t enough to cover the interest payments on the loan. The borrower would have no option but to come up with 35% more cash and accept a higher interest rate because the risk of default had risen, or default. Instead, the lenders have pretended the value of the property hasn’t declined and they’ve extended the term of the loan at a lower interest rate. This was done on the instructions of the Federal Reserve, their regulator. The plan is dependent on an improvement in the office and retail markets. It seems the best laid plans of corrupt sycophant central bankers are going to fail.

Eyes Wide Open

There are 1,300 regional malls in this country, with most anchored by a JC Penney, Sears, Barnes & Noble, or Best Buy. The combination of declining real household income, aging population, lackluster employment growth, rising energy, food and healthcare costs, mounting tax burdens, and escalating on-line purchasing will result in the creation of 200 or more ghost malls over the next five years. The closure of thousands of big box stores is baked in the cake. The American people have run out of money. They have no equity left in their houses to tap. The average worker has only $25,000 of retirement savings and they are taking loans against it to make the mortgage payment and put food on the table. They can’t afford to perform normal maintenance on their property and are one emergency away from bankruptcy. In a true cycle of doom, most of the jobs “created” since 2009 are low skill retail jobs with little or no benefits. As storefronts go dark and more “Available” signs are erected in front of these weed infested eyesores, more Americans will lose their jobs and be unable to do their 71% part in our economic Ponzi scheme.

The reason office buildings across the land sit vacant, with mold and mildew silently working its magic behind the walls and under the carpets, is because small businesses are closing up shop and only a crazy person would attempt to start a new business in this warped economic environment of debt dependent diminishing returns. The 27 million small businesses in the country are fighting a losing battle against overbearing government regulations, increasingly heavy tax burdens, operating cost inflation, Obamacare mandates, a low skill poorly educated workforce, and customers with diminishing resources and declining disposable income. Small business owners are not optimistic about the future because they don’t have a sugar daddy like Bernanke to provide them with free money and a promise to bail them out if their high risk investments go bad. With small businesses accounting for 65% of all new hiring in this country and looming healthcare taxes, mandates, regulations and penalties approaching like a freight train, there is absolutely zero probability that office buildings will be filling up with new employees in the next few years. With hundreds of billions in commercial real estate loans coming due over the next three years, over 60% of the loans in the office and retail category, vacancy rates at record levels, and property values still 30% to 40% below the original loan values, a rendezvous with reality awaits. How long can bankers pretend to be paid on loans by developers who pretend they are collecting rent from non-existent tenants who are selling goods to non-existent customers? The implosion in the commercial real estate market will also blow a gaping hole in the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which is leveraged 55 to 1.

federal reserve balance sheet

I regularly drive along Schoolhouse Road in Souderton. It is a winding country road with dozens of small manufacturing, warehousing, IT, aerospace, auto repair, bus transportation, retail and landscaping businesses operating and trying to scratch out a small profit. Most of these businesses have been operating for decades. I would estimate that most have annual revenue of less than $2 million and less than 100 employees. It is visibly evident they have not been thriving, as their facilities are looking increasingly worn down and in disrepair. Their access to credit has been reduced since the 2008 crisis, as only the Wall Street banks and mega-corporations with Washington lobbyists received Bennie Bucks and Obama stimulus pork. These small businesses have been operating on razor thin margins and unable to invest in their existing facilities or expand their businesses. The tax increases just foisted upon small business owners and their employees, along with Obamacare mandates which will drive healthcare costs dramatically higher, and waning demand due to lack of income, will surely push some of these businesses over the edge. There will be some harsh lessons learned on Schoolhouse Road over the next few years. I expect to see more of these signs along Schoolhouse Road and thousands of other roads in the next few years.

The mainstream media pawns, posing as journalists, have not only gotten the facts wrong regarding the current situation, but their myopia extends into the near future. The perpetual optimists that always see a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow are either willfully ignorant or a product of our government run public education system and can’t perform basic mathematical computations. As pointed out previously, consumer spending drives 71% of our economy. As would be expected, the highest level of annual spending occurs between the ages of 35 to 54 years old when people are in their peak earnings years. Young people are already burdened with $1 trillion of government peddled student loan debt and are defaulting at a 20% rate because there are no decent jobs available. Millions of Boomers are saddled with underwater mortgages, prodigious levels of credit card and auto loan debt, with retirement savings of $25,000 or less. Anyone expecting the young or old to ramp up spending over the next decade must be a CNBC pundit, University of Phoenix MBA graduate or Ivy League trained economist.

There will be 10,000 Boomers per day turning 65 years old for the next 18 years. Consumers in the 65-74 age segment spend 28% less on average than during their peak years. It is estimated that between 2010 and 2020 there will be approximately 14.5 million more consumers aged 65 or older. The number of Americans in their peak spending years will crash over the next decade. This surely bodes well for our suburban sprawl, mall based, cheap energy dependent, debt fueled society. Do you think this will lead to a revival in retail and office commercial real estate?

We’ve got $1 trillion annual deficits locked in for the next decade. We’ve got total credit market debt at 350% of GDP. We’ve got true unemployment exceeding 20%. We’ve had declining real wages for thirty years and no change in that trend. We’ve got an aging, savings poor, debt rich, obese, materialistic, iGadget distracted, proudly ignorant, delusional populace that prefer lies to truth and fantasy to reality. We’ve got 20% of households on food stamps. We’ve got food pantries, thrift stores and payday loan companies doing a booming business. We’ve got millions of people occupying underwater McMansions in picturesque suburban paradises that can’t make their mortgage payments or pay their utility bills, awaiting their imminent eviction notice from one of the Wall Street banks that created this societal catastrophe.

We’ve got a government further enslaving the middle class in student loan debt with the false hope of new jobs that aren’t being created. We’ve got a shadowy unaccountable organization, owned and controlled by the biggest banks in the world, that has run a Ponzi scheme called a fractional reserve lending system for 100 years, and inflated away 96% of the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. We’ve got a self-proclaimed Ivy League academic expert on the Great Depression (created by the Federal Reserve) who has tripled the Federal Reserve balance sheet on his way to quadrupling it by year end, who has promised QE to eternity with the sole purpose of enriching his benefactors while impoverishing senior citizens and the middle class. He will ultimately be credited in history books as the creator of the Greater Depression that destroyed the worldwide financial system and resulted in death, destruction, chaos, starvation, mayhem and ultimately war on a grand scale. But in the meantime, he serves the purposes of the financial ruling class as a useful idiot and will continue to spew gibberish and propaganda to obscure their true agenda.

It is time to open your eyes and arise from your stupor. Observe what is happening around you. Look closely. Does the storyline match what you see in your ever day reality? It is them versus us. Whether you call them the invisible government, ruling class, financial overlords, oligarchs, the powers that be, ruling elite, or owners; there are powerful wealthy men who call the shots in this global criminal enterprise. Their names are Dimon, Corzine, Blankfein, Murdoch, Buffett, Soros, Bernanke, Obama, Romney, Bloomberg, Fink, among others. They are using every means at their disposal to retain their control and power over the worldwide economic system and gorge themselves like hyenas upon the carcasses of a crippled and dying middle class. They have nothing but contempt and scorn for the peasants. They’re your owners and consider you as their slaves. They don’t care about you. They think the commoners are unworthy to be in their presence. Time is growing short for these psychopathic criminals. No amount of propaganda can cover up the physical, economic, social, and psychological descent afflicting our world. There’s a bad moon rising and trouble is on the way. The time for hard choices is coming. The words of Edward Bernays represent the view of the ruling class, while the words of George Carlin represent the view of the working class.

“There’s a reason that education sucks, and it’s the same reason it will never ever be fixed. It’s never going to get any better, don’t look for it. Be happy with what you’ve got. Because the owners of this country don’t want that. I’m talking about the real owners now, the big, wealthy, business interests that control all things and make the big decisions. Forget the politicians, they’re irrelevant.

Politicians are put there to give you that idea that you have freedom of choice. You don’t. You have no choice. You have owners. They own you. They own everything. They own all the important land, they own and control the corporations, and they’ve long since bought and paid for the Senate, the Congress, the State Houses, and the City Halls. They’ve got the judges in their back pockets. And they own all the big media companies so they control just about all the news and information you get to hear. They’ve got you by the balls.

They spend billions of dollars every year lobbying to get what they want. Well, we know what they want; they want more for themselves and less for everybody else. But I’ll tell you what they don’t want—they don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking. They don’t want well informed, well educated people capable of critical thinking. They’re not interested in that. That doesn’t help them. That’s against their interest. You know something, they don’t want people that are smart enough to sit around their kitchen table and figure out how badly they’re getting fucked by a system that threw them overboard 30 fucking years ago.” George Carlin

 

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109 Comments
Nonanonymous
Nonanonymous
March 26, 2013 11:44 pm

I’ve been called un-Christian by better than you.

Now, answer the question, so you believe God, or do you lean unto your own understanding?

You’ve thus far been intellectually dishonest. Prove you’re not, and answer the question. Albeit, your evasiveness has been your accuser.

Being dishonest, also makes you a liar and a cheat. I will not tread lightly, nor do I accept your insinuation that I’m somehow damaged goods. I also know who is the father of lies, and the accuser of men, so I suggest you tread lightly.

Answer the question, or don’t. Your silence speaks volumes. I would hope that we have some common ground, but I see there is none.

Your saving grace, with God, there is always a way. I pray you accept it.

llpoh
llpoh
March 26, 2013 11:45 pm

Re truth – it is what I believe it to be, and what I know to be, and what can be proven to be. Belief in God plays no part in it. Some who believe in God have the temerity to call others liars and cheats. To me that proves believing in God does not mean a person has integrity. My experience suggests quite the contrary is often the case.

llpoh
llpoh
March 26, 2013 11:58 pm

Non – you are a hypocrite. You call me a liar and/or a cheat, without even knowing me or how I do business. And in the same breath you claim to be a Christian. What a load of shit. That is dishonesty of the highest order. Who the fuck gave you the right to judge others? Your God?

Of course you are damaged goods. One does not become so bitter and twisted without being damaged. It is obvious to me that you are an abject failure in life, and to salve your failures and to make youself feel better, you have begun to think of those more successful as having achieved their success via lying and cheating. It makes you feel better about your own failures. And you have begun to think that you rightly deserve the fruits of someone else’s success, and claim it as a scientific fact. You are no more than a parasite on society’s ass. Go forth and make your own way, and quit trying to steal from hard-working, succesful people that have earned what they have. But then, you tried that and failed, now didn’t you. Well, I suppose there is always food stamps.

You fall back onto your religion, while being an utter hypocrite. There is no Christian charity in you. I have seen your ilk in many shades and forms. You are a disgrace. Those such as you are the reason I keep my personal beliefs to myself. I would hate to be tarnished by association.

Nonanonymous
Nonanonymous
March 27, 2013 12:02 am

Thank you for the answer. You’re your own god, and I believe that to be so. I also believe that’s what you believe.

I will pray for you, regardless of whether you believe I have integrity, or not. Hurling accusations may be fun on online forums. I’m still having trouble reconciling that with your integrity, but as long as you get to make the rules, have at it.

Any more accusations you care to make? BTW, I did tell you who is the father of all lies, and the accuser of mankind, did I not?

I see you are a master of avoiding accountability. Is that you secret of succes? It wouldn’t have anything to do with government contracts, or public spending in any way, would it? We’ll come back to taxes, since that’s how you justify your success and not giving to charity. Care to own up, or will your silence speak volumes in this regard, as well.

Please give an answer, since you’re so quick to make accusations. In fact, strike that. I don’t want an answer. I believe we’ve established we’ll not agree on anything.

I still reject your accusations.

rumcrook™
rumcrook™
March 27, 2013 12:17 am

marrisa hit the nail on the head right out of the gate.
I just got back from a one of our regular visits to family
in lima peru in south america and the level of business,
prosperity, and real growth in capital was so much greater, exponentially greater than what goes on here its disturbing. it has actually led me to consider moving the family, retiring from my small treading water business, sell our assets and go open a bar and grill near the beach, drink beer and forget the mess we are in here.

llpoh
llpoh
March 27, 2013 12:19 am

I take no money from the government whatsoever – no contracts, no subsidies, etc. My business pays millions in taxes each year, directy and indirectly. My charitable contributions are minor by my reckoning, but would be generally considered quite substantial by most folk. I will not pay large amounts to charity so long as my personal tax bill is so horrific. Most of my tax paid is effectively forced charity and goes to welfare. The government has decided they know best so so be it. My personal charity goes to organizations supporting animals, children and young people.

Non – it is you that have accused. I guess you missed the bit about those without sin casting the first stone and all of that.

I simply have drawn the reasonable conclusion that you are an abject failure, as I have seen your sort many, many times. Invariably, someone that calls another a liar and a cheat, with no basis for it other than the success of the person, is doing so for some personal reasons. These reasons are almost always resentment of the others success, bred out of their own failures. You want what you cannot have, and lay claim to that which you have not earned nor do you deserve. It is very common these days. We call those that do this the Free Shit Army. Hope being a member works out for you.

llpoh
llpoh
March 27, 2013 12:22 am

rumcrook – you are not alone in that sentiment. I read a bit about Peru recently. The downside seemed to be getting medical insurance, but other than that i sounded like a reasonable place to go. Keep in mind the US govt/IRS are making things extremely difficult on expats at the moment, and it is not inconceivable that expats may not be able to open bank accounts overseas for much longer. That would make it very dificult indeed to live overseas.

Stucky
Stucky
March 27, 2013 1:04 am

“I am trying to antagonize Stuck ….” ——— llpoh

You are doing QUITE WELL with nonanonymous, without my interfering.

Carry on!!

Stucky
Stucky
March 27, 2013 1:18 am

OK, never mind, I do wanna participate just a little.

“ In fact, to go a step further, I define words the way God defines them in his word. So, faggots ..”

Nonanonymous, care to share the scripture verse where God calls someone a “faggot”? I hope you find one cuz that would be funny as shit. But, you won’t. So, stop quoting bible verses, real or imagined, as it adds nothing to your argument.

Hey Nonanonymous!! Have YOU ever started a business? If so, please tell us about it.

A conversation I envision could happen;
——— llpoh: “I worked my ass off and risked everything for my company.”
——— Nonanonymous: “You didn’t build that!!”

howard in nyc
howard in nyc
March 27, 2013 1:59 am

Terry~

That was a marvelous post. Thank you for sharing your experience with the Tea Party. I too was an early member–I showed up at the first protest organized on Denninger’s site, in front of Bear Stearns back in Spring 2008. I saw the quick turn from an anti-bailout and anti-corruption movement to an anti-Obama movement.

It kills me how many people not only deny the historic facts which are well documented, but they reject the actual experiences of other folks, such as you have laid out above. People love their dogma and their comfortable political beliefs. But you cannot credibly deny a person’s own experiences.

I didn’t believe what the teevee news was saying about Occupy, and it was easy enough for me, living in New York, to go and see for myself. Not a surprise, the teevee lied again. Stucky and Quinn similarly went to downtown NYC to see for themselves as well.

I went from Tea Partier to Occupier, in little over two years. Few seem to understand how that can be possible; it makes complete sense to me.

marissa
marissa
March 27, 2013 2:00 am

@rumcrook–What are you waiting for? Get going, a bar on the beach in Peru is calling your name. Your kids will be fine.

I think that this is a beginning of investment, upwardability, and prosperity for south America as much of the rest of the developed world deals with resource depletion, overpopulation, and unrest. South America has a certain unity among itself, and a great distance from the rest of the maddening world. I truly believe it’s a rising star.

Now is a great time to be going down there to get in while the getting’s good. If I were you I’d be packing.

Mike Moskos
Mike Moskos
March 27, 2013 2:57 am

Actually llpoh, I think most people start their own business because they have an idea of doing things THEIR way, not the boss’s and that is probably a far bigger motivator than the amount of money they might potentially make.

I can’t imagine anything worse than starting a business, working like hell, then selling shares in it and suddenly becoming nothing more than an employee: answerable to a slew of people who think they have more of a right to make decisions about that business than those who work in it every day. You must die a slow emotional death.

Llpoh
Llpoh
March 27, 2013 3:37 am

Mike – those folks you mention tend to be more self-employed rather than real business owners. But I get your point. Many do as you say.

Re selling shares, best to take the money and run when the sell is done. Or keep controlling interest.

The type you mention do not tend to grow their businesses. They are one man bands as a rule.

flash
flash
March 27, 2013 8:21 am

Never mind.Quayle is associated with Coast to Coast radio… enough said.

Nonanonymous
Nonanonymous
March 27, 2013 8:26 am

Stuck, I said they, faggots, are called sodomites in the bible. I thought it was clear enough, but apparently not enough for you.

Yes, I ran my own business for 5 years in the service industry and generally had one employee other than myself. I also started another business which didn’t really take off..

I’m not an over achiever like you, yet I contribute to society. I work and pay taxes. Isn’t that enough? You accuse me of being condescending, yet you’re the one questioning why anyone would believe God. The fair question to ask is why wouldn’t they?

Skeptics come and go, the word of God lives and abides forever. I can look that up for you if you like. If you call that condescending, so be it. What you believe matters little to me, since you don’t believe anything anyway. However, I’ll let you in on a little secret, everybody believes something. I choose to believe the word of truth, which is my privilege, just as it is yours to not believe. I don’t knock what you believe, so why knock what I do? It’s a strange, strange world when everything is either the truth, or a perversion of it. There’s a lot more perversion than truth in the world today. You can believe what you will. However, don’t believe me, believe God. Don’t do anything I say, do what God says. If you don’t know what he says, maybe it’s time to start learning. However, it does no good to know what is right, and not do it.

However, Herr Stuck, I’m not convinced you know what is right, do you?

Nonanonymous
Nonanonymous
March 27, 2013 8:37 am

Besides, I just like saying the word, faggot. It has a nice ring to it. Meat is another good one. How about, pork and beans, buns, oven.

One of the funniest things I ever read on a alt-religion news group was when a fellow christian pointed out a sodomite contributor who would quote the bible out of context could, “say anything and make it smell like a used condom”. I kinda doubt he ever used one, I mean, what’s the point, but still, it was funny.

Ritchie The Riveter
Ritchie The Riveter
March 27, 2013 8:40 am

One thing to keep in mind … who is working for who, when it comes to exploiting this nation?

Corporations, despite their wealth, do not have access to the coercive force of law to exploit and abuse others, either directly or via the US Treasury … unless our government leaders collude with them to give them that access. Without that access, corporate power is VERY limited … were that not so, entrepreneurs from Steve Jobs to Sam Walton would have seen their enterprises strangled at birth by their established corporate opponents.

And said leaders only grant that access to those who will dance to the leaders’ tune … it may look like it’s the other way around, but the decision is always the leader’s to make, even when it comes to taking the corporate cash in exchange for favorable treatment.

This is the problem I have with OWS … they went after the wrong target; they should have earned the name OBEoPA – Occupy Both Ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

But, as our author contends, they too have been conditioned, along with millions of others to accept the status quo … but that conditioning also includes the belief that “non-profit” entities are inherently – and always – more noble and trustworthy than the for-profit.

And also conditioned to believe the following;

“All you need to do is show up for work or go to school; we have experts who have the answers to your housing needs, your health care needs, your financial needs … no need to plan for your future or actively manage your career, since we can do a better job than you can; just trust us to solve those problems FOR you.”

This belief … encouraged by our leaders and allegedly Best and Brightest for almost a century, now … turned into a vicious cycle that led us to “outsource” more and more of our personal responsibility, decision-making authority, and/or resources to others – deep-pocketed employers, union leadership, great minds in academia, and particularly government … with these leaders employing more and more “experts” and creating more and more functions to “solve” those problems FOR us.

As a result, we put more and more of our eggs in the basket of government … and expanded the opportunities for the crony capitalism among the Best and Brightest, moneyed or not.

Meet the enemy … he is us. We bought into a lie, sweetened by the thirty years after WWII when we were the 800 lb. gorilla in the world economy as others were literally rebuilding from the rubble, and are letting our birthright – our ability to pursue happiness and reach it – be stolen from us by our “betters” because we have been led to believe that they ARE better than us.

It is our subordination of our responsibility and initiative to the diktats of the “experts”, that has created what we are going through today. It is the fundamental problem we are facing, that is leaving ordinary people vulnerable to economic misery.

James
James
March 27, 2013 9:29 am

Civilization is a cancerous growth and we’re all a part of it. Those cell lines that grow most rapidly, metastasize widely and find their way around the rules that encumber other cells, win a very temporary victory. The final terminal destination is assured when exponential growth and living forever are the inalienable goals of such a system. Everyone wants more money, more years of life, more, more, more……….until the surrounding environment can no longer nourish the unnatural and unsustainable trajectory. The “American Dream” is the dream of temporarily and comfortably living within a neoplasm until “the pursuit of happiness” gives way to descent into Hades.

Now get out there and form your own little cancerous cell, make it grow, and even if you never get stock options in a gargantuan tumor like Wal-Mart, your little polyp of growth may still nourish your innate longings for the sordid “American Dream”.

George B
George B
March 27, 2013 1:15 pm

Businesses simply need less commercial real estate in the US independent of economic decline. My home and auto insurance agent in Richardson, TX moved his business to smaller, less expensive, office space. His business is still healthy, but he no longer needs space for file cabinets of paper records. The Cisco office complex here has lots of land and Buildings 4, 5, 6, and 9. I predict buildings 7 and 8 will never be built. Their growth in employment shifted to Bangalore. Thomas Friedman used to talk about the efficient new “green” semiconductor fab that Texas Instruments built as a success, but I’ve never seen cars in the parking lot or any other evidence that it has ever produced anything. http://www.tialumni.org/infolinkalumni/story.asp?count=1125 Business practices changed and semiconductor manufacturing shifted to independent semiconductor foundries in Asia.

In a healthy economy, outdated and unneeded real estate gets torn down or modified to meet current demands. The Prestonwood Town Center mall was torn down and replaced by separate stores, offices, and apartments. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prestonwood_Town_Center A sure sign of economic decay is unused buildings sitting vacant with no investment in converting the space into something that makes money.

Llpoh
Llpoh
March 27, 2013 3:13 pm

So I was right. Poor old Non is oh for two trying to run a business. Note the euphemism “did not take off”. What he meant was he went broke – again.

He and his fellow “Christians” sure are a judgemental lot, calling folks liars, cheats, and faggots. I guess the milk of human kindness and decency does mot course through his veins in abundance.

Their are some true Christians out and about. Full of love and compassion and understanding of their fellows. Non is not one of those. He uses Christianity as a tool to support his judgemental and bitter positions. I hope when he stands before his God, his God is a tolerant and loving God, as he is going to need it.

YumYum
YumYum
March 27, 2013 3:23 pm

Nonanonymous & Llpoh

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YumYum
YumYum
March 27, 2013 3:27 pm

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TPC
TPC
March 27, 2013 4:00 pm

@MechEngine –

I’ve about given up trying to talk about things more serious than NCAA, iPhones or getting laid.

Nobody cares.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
March 27, 2013 5:08 pm

Maybe it would be wise to study those who Bernays may have consolidated into a cogent and pragmatic mechanism?

Perhaps some rare minds who threw their arms up and, in effect, said “Fuck these clowns” in their own special ways?

Smoke and mirrors require spectrums to distort and objects to reflect. Unfortunately for all, that very fact creates the dillema: It is always easier to rest with an answer given than it is to focus on actuality.

Certainly, to confuse the two even by accident has trapped even the brightest in the foggy halls of the carnival mad house.

Great work, Admin: Another proverbial tap on the funhouse mirrors.

llpoh
llpoh
March 27, 2013 5:46 pm

TPC – I care. I mightily appreciate the views of whippersnappers like you and Colma. By and large you youngsters have good insight. You are good at identifying problems, and propose some interesting solutions. Your lone issue as a rule — and it is natural and there is nothing you can really do about it – is that your solutions do not always address everything involved in the problem. A ridiculous fake example of this would be you might propose shooting the wild, rampaging bear, but omitt how you will clean up the blood, what will you do with the carcass, etc. Experience and age tends to allow (smart) people to see past the immediate crisis and include plans/solutions that cover the entire event.

Without presenting comments/opinions/solutions how are you ever going to learn and test yourself? From a purely selfish perspective, who is going to keep me apprised of what is going on in the minds of the younger generations (who are our last, best hope)?

Please do not be misled – people care about what you, and the younger crowd around here, think and believe. It is important. Do us all a favor and keep bringing it.

llpoh
llpoh
March 27, 2013 5:52 pm

YumYum – I am not nearly as ruthless as the character DD Lewis played. I am really just a softie.

[img]http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRjpmKZ_yxKUxOmqCp-YMVBBuunNd1xl0sJMQpFYDdEnDUDceN6[/img]

Novista
Novista
March 28, 2013 8:57 pm

The U.S. is like a sumo wrestler, having eaten today’s lunch and all of tomorrows and reached peak growth. Now the unwilled diet begins.

I hear ya, sister
I hear ya, sister
March 31, 2013 10:18 pm

Interesting article. I have two homes. One is in a small Colorado town and the other is in Scottsdale. The economic disparity between the two in regards to infrastructure, commercial real estate and general economic activity is amazing. I feel like one is in a sustained depression, while the other is already back to pre_crash levels. I was at Safeway today behind the ubiquitous food stampers and extreme coupon idiots and was overcome by the defeatist attitude of most of the patrons. I have been an employee and an employer, got rich and went broke, but have never just given up. The economy can never have any true intrinsic recovery if a significant portion of the population does not produce. They see no upside, have no life’s work and don’t improve their situations. Starting a small business now is crazy, but someone will say fuck it and do it anyway. Some tiny fraction of those that do will be successful.

DWK
DWK
April 4, 2013 2:59 pm

For all of you dreamers that think Latin America, you are out of your minds! I have been in South America for over nine years and will be writing a book on what a shit hole it is! I am currently in Chile and have been here for over 71/2 years! It is HORRIBLE, UGLY, POLLUTED and UNFRIENDLY!
The Chileans are pure garbage and nothing more. They are greedy, lazy and crooked. Wages are low and the cost of living is more than in the US! The country is tax hungry and food and services are garbage. Gasoline is 7.00 US per gallon and one quart of Mobil 1 is 24.00 US! A magazine from the US is 30.00 or more and the people are ignorant, fear the Catholic Church and Opus Dei is huge in this backwards country. All of the food is genetically modified and the beef, chicken and pork are filled with hormones and antibiotics. There is no such thing as customer service and they think 100 years in the past.

Before living here, I was in Punta del Este, Uruguay. Still backwards, expensive but decent food and not polluted. Poverty is everywhere and this is common in Latin America where ignorance and breeding more kids is the order of the day.

So to all you armchair travelers, who spend a few days in a place like Ecuador! That is a great place, as that is a lie. Do tell them about the bank will retain 3% of any money you bring into the country, as that was mandated by their president! Be sure and tell about the alcohol tax that is huge and forces prices over the top. Be sure and mention about the broken down roads and ignorant people. If you want to learn head shrinking, Ecuador is the place to go.

Finally, in all of Third World Latin America, owning a firearm is practically impossible! The whole continent is backwards and will remain so!

Novista
Novista
April 4, 2013 9:49 pm

The Ugly American syndrome lives again!

Stucky
Stucky
April 5, 2013 2:48 pm

Comment #99.

Mick
Mick
April 7, 2013 11:47 am

Yet JQ ignores the most important fact. Why JQ? Are you just a coward– cowed by the “birther” epithet? Or are you not as smart as I thought?

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley

Obama is a Usurper, non natural born Citizen, installed I by the NWO Central bankers, to effect the dissolution of the US Constitution , and US Citizens’ sovereignty. When there is no legal President, whom is the executor of the laws, then there is no law, no Constitution, and no “United States”

Obama was born British of a British subject father (“an improper ascendant” (improper ancestor)— see Federalist 68)), and is likely still British today, and is the front-man of the Rothchilds.
Obama 2 would not be eligible if born on the Oval Office desk—- because he was born of a foreign father— and he said so—“Dreams FROM My Father”.

American law (SCOTUS Precedent):
“The Constitution does not in words say who shall be natural-born citizens. Resort must be had elsewhere to ascertain that. At common law, with the nomenclature of which the framers of the Constitution were familiar, it was never doubted that all children born in a country of parents who were its citizens became themselves, upon their birth, citizens also. These were natives or natural-born citizens, as distinguished from aliens or foreigners.” 88 US 162, 167, Minor v, Happersett (1874)

Natural born Citizens are born to US Citizen parents (2) on US soil, so that no foreign influence or allegiance is installed at birth. The founders were wise, and we were stupid.

See Deuteronomy 17:15— it is against the law of nature to place one who is a foreigner, and not your brother, over you as a leader.

Mass awareness of the FACT that Obama is not eligible is a game changer, and is the Usurper’s kryptonite, yet you refuse to understand its importance directy before your eyes.

Stucky
Stucky
April 7, 2013 12:24 pm

DWK

Your comments about your experiences are a breath of fresh air.

I have always harbored a modicum of doubt when I read about how wonderful South American countries are. Like that asshole blogger known as Sovereign Man.

It’s probably great if you live in a Gated and Guarded Community … like a fuckin’ prisoner.

Stucky
Stucky
April 7, 2013 12:26 pm

Mick

Are you a masochist?

Novista
Novista
April 7, 2013 8:30 pm

Mick

Your topic focus makes Fuligo septica look superior.

Anonymous
Anonymous
April 9, 2013 12:18 am

Dear Jim

Listened to you today on the podcast about this article and the former one about excess vacancy of commercial retail and office space available on the market. I am a Commercial real estate appraiser and am constantly amazed at what I witness in the market. First of all your claim that Residential subprime is the crux of the market collapse is not totally accurate. While that practice is widely excepted as the excuse. It didn’t factor in the greedy homeowner who fully leveraged his home out on a HELOC. Who now is in debt below the market peak.
I have also seen Loan to Value ratio on commercial loans well in excess of 100%.
Ergo Many of these guys have never had any skin the game, Banks allowed this practice in order to remain competitive with other aggressive loan tactics. The vacancy is well reported since 2009 which was the market dead space. The period was pall of inactivity.
Since the enduring Fed policy of nearly zero interest, Buyers starved for rate of return have been starved to invest in the hard assets of real estate. While the measurement of investment is the cap rate (Recapture or rate of return). Theory is the greater the risk, the greater the rate of return. However even though the fundamental bottom lines have remained unchanged investors have been willing to except a lower rate of return.

Stucky
Stucky
April 10, 2013 12:21 am

Wed April 10, 2013 … 12:18PM

Wow. The new comments OP list to the right is completely filled with names I’ve never seen before. Including some Chink bastard. The comments are mostly gibberish, with some linking to porn sites.

I think TBP is being hacked.

Peter Coley
Peter Coley
April 10, 2013 9:53 am

Good work Admin. Thank you

Certain personality types flourish in the culture we occupy – egotistical, clever, competitive, driven, gifted, subtle, ambitious and most importantly, dominant people. The activity of a very small number of these individuals -whose main drive is to be The Winner and who are in competition with one another at the very top of the corporate world tree – governs the way we all live and determines a culture whose overwhelming message is: ‘work’. Forget family, forget personal development, forget art, culture, leisure, education, real relationships, communal activity. Just work.

I grew up the 1970’s in a modest middle class home with four siblings. My Dad worked a 40hr week in middle management. So did the Dad’s of most of my school friends. That was 40 parent hours a week taken by work from the home. Now, for a similar household, 60,75,90 parent hours a week taken. It doesn’t take much to imagine what harm that’s doing to children, especially very young ones. And to family bonds. And to a sense of ‘home’

Jeff G
Jeff G
May 8, 2013 3:11 pm

The real estate problem you observed might be due to structural changes in how we work and the inability of the real estate industry to take note of these changes in how we work. For example, taking an industry that I work in, retail banking, 62% of respondents in a recent PwC study indicate that the Internet is now their preferred banking method compared to only 20% for branch banking (see retail banking trends). Now combine with the the lowered ROI expectations of brick and mortar or just take a straight line reduction in bank branch vs. digital preference and you get an idea of how little real estate is needed by banks vs. how much is now occupied.

Perhaps the country is in better shape than the over building of real estate during a real estate bubble indicates.