We haven’t had a TBP poll in quite a while. I know it’s a long way off, but the President who is elected in 2016 will be in power during the most dangerous portion of this Fourth Turning. The period from 2016 through 2024 will likely involve much bloodshed, war, and the likely climax of this Crisis period in our history. I can guarantee you the country will not look the same in 2024 as it does today. The tough choices we’ve put off for decades will be forced upon us. The country could be renewed or destroyed during the next Presidency.
Who do you think will be elected President in 2016?
A. Hillary Clinton
B. Andrew Cuomo
C. Deval Patrick
D. Marco Rubio
E. Rand Paul
F. Chris Christie
G. Paul Ryan
H. Condoleezza Rice
I. Barack Obama declares himself dictator due to national emergency
J. A general topples the government and assumes power
K. Ben Carson
L. Stuck
M. The country won’t exist by 2016
Eddie says:
My own instincts tell me that the FSA will dominate until we have a major crisis, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hillary or some other Democrat demagogue take the White House.
We could see a Paul Ryan if the backlash against Obamacare gains traction, or if the Dow loses half its book value in a year.
If Dr. Carson runs, he has my vote. If Rand Paul runs, I’d consider him, too. Paul Ryan, I think he lacks the real vision to make any significant change.
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20th February 2013 at 9:23 am
mabuk says:
Hillary in a landslide over Rubio, most everyone will be anti-immigration by then as fight for jobs becomes a bloodsport, so Hillary will ride that fence straight into the White House on the female vote — and Obama wouldn’t bother with usurping another term, he’ll be happy to retire and collect on all those favors from Wall Street.
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20th February 2013 at 10:01 am
TC says:
Easy answer: A. That corrupt globalist-statist cuntbag is still the most popular politician in America despite being a corrupt globalist-statist cuntbag. It damn sure won’t be a republican – those fucking morons running the party couldn’t win dog catcher. It won’t be a freedom-oriented 3rd party candidate like Ron Paul because well we love war and big government. My second guess would be Joe Biden. Despite being a complete moron with obvious financial shenanigans in his closet, the lefties are already setting him up as some kind of genius who should have been prez instead of ol’ barky. We’re fucked either way it goes.
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20th February 2013 at 10:02 am
TPC says:
My guess is Hillary for 2016. She won’t repeat in 2020, as her tenure will make Obama’s looks kind and friendly by comparison.
2020 – A sane leader?
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20th February 2013 at 10:12 am
treemagnet says:
Admin, off topic – but its your fault, didn’t even know about Strauss & Howe before. Read the fourth turning and working on my generations book, the 13ers. The dye is cast for me and mine, but my kids are born ’98 thru ’01…..so they’re sort of millenials until they’re labeled later – or they’ll straddle the two. I want to know what I can about their future so they can make better decisions with their life. What read would you suggest and do you know if strauss/howe have something in the works? Thanks for your time and consideration.
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20th February 2013 at 10:21 am
Steve Hogan says:
Hillary in 2016. By the time she gets done with her first term, it won’t matter much who wins in 2020. The place won’t be recognizable.
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20th February 2013 at 10:23 am
Fred the Vet says:
There won’t be a 2016 Election.
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20th February 2013 at 10:24 am
Administrator says:
treemagnet
Strauss is dead. Howe has his Lifecourse Blog, but he hardly ever posts anything. He’s running a successful business helping companies understand the generational aspects of their workforces. I don’t think he is writing a book.
I wouldn’t put that kind of pressure on your kids at that age. There really isn’t anything they can do at this point other than have their eyes open to the reality around them.
We are in for tough sledding ahead. I’m not sure how it will turn out.
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20th February 2013 at 10:29 am
Wyoming Mike says:
Joe Biden will beat Chris Christie when Christie chokes to death on a hot dog backstage at a debate. Commuter trains will be built everywhere. We will return to the shining city on the hill!
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20th February 2013 at 10:38 am
Eddie says:
So far it looks like Hillary by a landslide. We are such pessimists.
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20th February 2013 at 10:43 am
card802 says:
I agree with most here, the republican party for all intents is dead, the FSA wants more and democrats will promise more. That is their base, that will be their power.
It doesn’t matter who runs in 2016, as long as they have a D by their name, they win.
Then after another four years of more of the same, maybe we get a clue, but I will not hold my breath.
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20th February 2013 at 10:59 am
treemagnet says:
Oh I don’t mean I’d have them read it, I want to know – any other books?
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20th February 2013 at 11:05 am
treemagnet says:
My vote is I – because the addict will be chasing a new high.
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20th February 2013 at 11:07 am
Administrator says:
I think Kunstler’s Long Emergency is worthwhile. I bought his Too Much Magic book, but I haven’t read it yet.
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20th February 2013 at 11:08 am
sangell says:
The Rodhamster will be too hideous looking by 2016 to even be considered for president. Already her cosmetically altered visage is deteriorating into the face of an ill tempered hag. Her health doesn’t appear to be that good either. Bill will probably be dead by 2016 as well. Nobody in his family lived to be 70. Its even possible that Bill and the hagster will actually meet now that neither has a job and police will be called to their Chapaqua residence and haul one of them off to jail for domestic violence if not murder.
On the GOP side I’d lean to Rubio being the candidate. The GOP desperately needs to cleave a few percentage points of the Latino vote away from the Democrats and Rubio might be the way to do that.
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20th February 2013 at 11:12 am
Administrator says:
I think you guys are assuming this farce of an economic system will hold together through 2016 and the Democrats will sweep to victory.
I’d give only a 20% probability that the economy is still intact by 2016. We will have an epic crash in the next four years. Book it.
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20th February 2013 at 11:14 am
Olga says:
Since it’s apparently incumbent upon TPTB to rotate our puppet leaders between parties I don’t see Hillary getting in – perhaps a third party that is a break-way comprised of fiscally conservative and socially liberal?
Treemagnet – this is scheduled for tomorrow.
http://solari.com/blog/how-the-youngest-generations-will-contribute-with-neil-howe-february-21/
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20th February 2013 at 11:15 am
Eddie says:
I’ve read most of Too Much Magic. It’s worthy. No huge surprises if you follow Kunstler, but he gives plenty of references for his POV that you don’t get from his blog posts. jmho.
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20th February 2013 at 11:16 am
Chicago999444 says:
I believe a Republican could win easily if, and ONLY if, the Republicans divorce the Christian Right.
Believe me, there is immense anger and disgust with Democrats among Dem voters. Disgust with and hatred of Obama is widespread among them, and most people are distrustful of Hillary Clinton and every other plausible Dem candidate. The expansion of the welfare state is a major flash point- you don’t have to be an ideological Republican to figure out that there’s no way we can have an expanding public sector and expanding welfare entitlement programs while the private sector that pays for it all is shrinking. They are dismayed by the expansion of the surveillance state and the cancellation of our civil rights.
But they know that Republicans will do nothing differently, except insert more government into our bedrooms and our wombs. After all, the blatantly unconstitutional and oppressive USAPATRIOT Act was passed by a Republican president, senate, and house. Worse, the Republicans are dead set on establishing a Fundamentalist Christian Theocracy and cancelling the last of our civil rights. At the same time, they shamelessly promote corporate welfare and pre-emptive war, and worst of all, they have managed to co-op the Libertarian Party.
Believe me, if the Republicans nominated a candidate who promoted fiscal responsibility, the roll-back of welfare entitlements AND corporate welfare, and who supported religious freedom and freedom from government interference in people’s personal lives and reproductive decisions, a Republican would win by a massive landslide, so deep is the disgust with the Democrats.
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20th February 2013 at 11:18 am
Eddie says:
I am reading Jared Diamond’s new one, “The World Until Yesterday”. Not exactly Generational Theory, but I think it has some pearls for collapseniks.
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20th February 2013 at 11:19 am
Thinker says:
treemagnet, if you don’t mind my weighing in, your kids are late Millennial/Homelander cusp. It’s very likely they’ll be too young to serve in the 4T Crisis war, so you can have some comfort there. Unless it’s an extended one, which is anyone’s guess.
They will grow up amid great strife and uncertainty, but they’ll be protected by Gen X/13er parents, who are among the most protective parents — mainly because they grew up underprotected, and they want to prevent their kids from facing the same issues they did. Also, because society will be overturning during their childhood, you as parents will want to minimize the impact on them.
If you read Generations, S&H’s first book, you’ll be able to equate them with the various Artist generations. They’ll grow up during a period of prosperity (depending on how this 4T plays out), will be able to enjoy the artistic and cultural advances that mark their generational type and be old enough to not have too much of a role in the next Awakening, periods which are often also marked by violence (of an internal sort, with new Prophets trying to change their world).
There’s a great forum of S&H followers, if you’re interested. I’ve barely scratched the surface of what to expect; there are lots of things that you might consider investing in so your children can make the most of each Turning financially and professionally. Let me know if you want to be pointed over there; you may already be familiar with it.
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20th February 2013 at 11:21 am
napari says:
Dr Carson would get my vote.
Rubio’s got charisma but I’m starting to think he’s been co-opted by the republican establishment.
No Gary Johnson? Whats up with that??
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20th February 2013 at 11:21 am
Eddie says:
“if the Republicans nominated a candidate who promoted fiscal responsibility, the roll-back of welfare entitlements AND corporate welfare, and who supported religious freedom and freedom from government interference in people’s personal lives and reproductive decisions, a Republican would win by a massive landslide”
If only.
Monkeys will fly out of my ass before that happens.
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20th February 2013 at 11:22 am
treemagnet says:
Thinker, what do know – I’ll check it out. Thanks.
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20th February 2013 at 11:26 am
fool on the hill says:
Ben Carson gets my vote with Rand Paul as VP.
In reality, however, I think the republic is mortally wounded.
I have been concentrating on several caches of ordinance and precious metals.
One in Colombia.
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20th February 2013 at 11:27 am
Chicago999444 says:
Oh, and at least half of the socially liberal women of my acquaintance dislike and distrust Hillary Clinton, as do I. Most people perceive another paid flunky of the financial cartel in Hillary, and it’s considered that her fortune was gotten dishonestly. The Clintons were nearly penniless when Bill won the presidency in 1992, but the couple is worth over $100M now. Needless to say, she will only expand the welfare state.
Among those on the list, Condaleeza Rice is the best of bad choices, her major drawback being that she is a typical neo-con warhawk and interventionist, one of the people instrumental in creating the debacle in Iraq.
Rand Paul still has possibilities, though I’m losing hope.
The rest are unacceptable.
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20th February 2013 at 11:30 am
Persnickety says:
Some combination of A and I, followed shortly by J, then M.
If you look at various state legislatures’ reactions to Obamacare, marijuana, and gun control, you can see some mighty big faultlines opening up, in the same general areas.
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20th February 2013 at 11:31 am
card802 says:
Admin: “I’d give only a 20% probability that the economy is still intact by 2016. We will have an epic crash in the next four years. Book it.”
I know you are right a high percentage of the time, but this time I hope you are wrong. But then again, it’s what I’ve been planning for, it’s just hard to face.
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20th February 2013 at 11:32 am
AWD says:
Let’s see,
Feds buy 2 billion rounds of ammo
Feds buy 12,000 assault rifles for staffers nationwide
Obama has 62 drone bases nationwide
Feds supplying drones to every city and state
600 FEMA Detention Camps in the US
TSA and DHS with armored assault vehicles
CISPA and dark star surveillance in Utah
Illegal domestic military operations in cities nationwide
1000′s of TSA raids and checkpoints throughout U.S.
NDAA gives Obama power to kill or detain anyone
Everyone from children to bloggers labeled terrorists (see NDAA)
Banning of firearms for civilians
Government going bankrupt, out of cash
Politicians and D.C. residents buying more bunkers than anyone in U.S.
The handwriting is on the wall, if you care to read it. Obama is going to pull a Hitler and seize power, become our Fuhrer. Book it, Danno.
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20th February 2013 at 11:38 am
AWD says:
Please add to my list:
Democrats sweep elections in 2014, giving Obama almost unlimited power.
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20th February 2013 at 11:40 am
Persnickety says:
Just read all the prior responses and I’m interested in the focus on an individual. I agree with Jim’s guarantee of an epic collapse in the next four years – I wouldn’t be surprised if it actually happens this year. I suspect that one way or another another “D” wall-street globalist hack will be installed in 2016, but between general disgust and a collapsed economy (and probably society, too) it will be little more important than who won the Golden Globes, as the country devolves into something different.
What used to be the middle class is being wiped out, and no one below the 0.1% is doing well. This will have significant effects.
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20th February 2013 at 11:48 am
Randa says:
The good news is that there will never in the future of the human race be another American presidential election. No election because there will be no USA.
I’ll go one step further (the bad news). There will be no planet Earth by 2016.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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20th February 2013 at 11:50 am
AWD says:
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20th February 2013 at 12:06 pm
ecliptix543 says:
Who gives a rat’s ass? Most of the people on this site will have been imprisoned or vaporised by drone long before the next Selection in 2016.
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20th February 2013 at 12:07 pm
Zarathustra says:
AWD, Hitler was a genuine leader, as was Mussolini. Obama is a pussy; he doesn’t have the balls to elevate himself to dictator.
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20th February 2013 at 12:12 pm
BUCKHED says:
Hillary has a shot if she can get a good cosmetic surgeon to change her bulldog looks. If Bill slams her head into the kitchen counter again..I mean she slips and hits her head then the brain damage may be too great for her to run .
Rice won’t run…folks can’t accept a person who is both black and a lesbian at this time…..way too much confusion for the religious folks.
Andrew…nope.. unless he shoots an intruder with an Ar-15 and says the ban is going to be lifted .
Patrick..maybe if the Republicat’s fuck up badly enough…he would be the first TRULY black president
Rubio…no… La Raza has him tagged to take over the Republic of California
Paul…only if the country has crashed and a total reset is needed based on the Constitution…which will happen only if the FSA has disappeared .
Christie…nope he too much of a fat fuck and the Republicant’s will remember he sucked on Obama’s balls for Sandy money.
Ryan…nope….never been a President with a cow lick !
Barack Obama declares himself dictator due to national emergency…VERY POSSIBLE
A general topples the government and assumes power…no there’s no one with a enough charisma like MacArthur or Ike that would be able to take and HOLD power
Carson…could be if he lives long enough…can’t have a conservative black guy shitting on the Demorat’s .
Stuck…only if he truly has a 12″ Magic Johnson…..and the balls to go with it .
The country won’t exist by 2016….my bet ….a 50/50 chance
BUCKHED…. 90% chance….because my last name is Nobody…and Nobody’s Perfect !
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20th February 2013 at 12:34 pm
Work-In-Progress says:
Kim Kardashian
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20th February 2013 at 12:51 pm
Hope@ZeroKelvin says:
M.
Actually I am totally offended that NO ONE considered ME for president.
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20th February 2013 at 2:06 pm
SSS says:
@ Hope
Don’t be offended that no one here considered you for president. You’re our TBP secret, and we want to keep it that way.
“I think you guys are assuming this farce of an economic system will hold together through 2016 and the Democrats will sweep to victory.”
—-Admin
Actually, the economy may continue to get battered, but it will not break apart by 2016. Which means that I side with many others ……. Hillary in a landslide.
Liberals will all vote for her, and so will most blacks. The Latino vote may slip a touch because of the machismo factor. But it’s the women voters who will help her pound her opponent into the dust. Hillary watched her husband triangulate for 8 years and get away with it. She will do the same and win not only easily, but very easily.
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20th February 2013 at 3:35 pm
Stucky says:
I am honored to be listed as a possible candidate.
However, I was born in Austria. Therefore, I am not eligible.
Oh ….. wait …..
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20th February 2013 at 3:37 pm
Stucky says:
My belief is it will be “Other”.
Someone we’ve never heard of, or considered. Someone neither a Repub or Dem. Some charismatic leader who is above the fray, affiliated with no one, …. and therefore someone ALL the people can trust and rally behind. (Of course all that will be a sham.)
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20th February 2013 at 3:42 pm
AWD says:
“Hillary in a landslide”
She’ll get all the dried up skank votes, and all the bull dyke lesbian votes.
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20th February 2013 at 3:48 pm
BUCKHED says:
AWD…..Who’s thee chick on the back of the motorcycle grabbing Stuck’s man boobs !
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20th February 2013 at 4:32 pm
Eddie says:
Nope.
The one in front is a girl too, cause she’s on a Sportster. No fatt-ass male biker with that many tattoos would be without a full size Harley.
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20th February 2013 at 4:41 pm
Persnickety says:
@Stucky: stop lying, we know you were born in Hawaii. We even have the “birth certificate” to prove it.
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20th February 2013 at 4:51 pm
Pirate Jo says:
Treemagnet, above all else, buy gold and silver and give it to your kids someday.
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20th February 2013 at 7:34 pm
Llpoh says:
Hillary Cliton in a landslide.
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20th February 2013 at 7:38 pm
chupacabron says:
Work-In-Progress says: Kim Kardashian
she’s a business woman like Romney but better looking. and she is as well travelled as hillary. i don’t think it would be a tough sell. less hipocritical than the guy selling tix to the inauguration, we will know there’s money being made. repeat of Kamelot (or Kanyelot).
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20th February 2013 at 8:19 pm
Novista says:
M-2
treemagnet
The best preparation for your kids is to discuss the issues with them. Find out what lies they get fed at public school or what they hear on the media and provide alternatives. John Williams’ ShadowStats takes the mickey out of government ‘elastic’ statistics. And so on.
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20th February 2013 at 8:38 pm
todd says:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=PpccpglnNf0
the goat at the 1:24 mark gives us the answer.
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20th February 2013 at 9:15 pm
Old buck says:
A general will be elected president in 2016 or 2020 the latest
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20th February 2013 at 9:39 pm
a cruel accountant says:
None of the above.
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20th February 2013 at 9:55 pm
Scott says:
Stucky
Obama was not born in the states either even though his phony Hawaii birth certificate shows that he was. The republican party is dead. I hate to say that since I am a registered republican. It’s the democrats from here on. A one party system as we head for full blown socialism. I guess my pick will be Hillary Clinton.
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20th February 2013 at 10:07 pm
SSS says:
Hey, how come I get 2 thumbs down for going with Hillary, and everyone else who picked her gets a multitude of thumbs up? You people are meanies. It’s just not fair. I want FAIRNESS on this site. I demand fairness. Who’s with me?
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20th February 2013 at 10:38 pm
crazyivan says:
sss,
Two ups and two down is as good as it gets around here. Half of us are just lonely fools, and the other half are just arrogant fools. Not everyone votes.
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20th February 2013 at 10:55 pm
Zarathustra says:
SSS, in Iran, a “thumbs up” means the same thing as flipping the bird in our culture, so count your blessings.
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20th February 2013 at 11:08 pm
printmemoney says:
not much to say except I thumbs up’d llpoh – Hillary in a landslide, the appearance with obama on 60 minutes was a handback to bill for giving the speech at the DNC convention
And to the Vet, there will always be elections…..some bitches in Cleveland may vote 6 times
No idiot dictator doesn’t hold elections.
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20th February 2013 at 11:38 pm
Bob says:
None of the above.
By Nov. 2016, the chaos factor will be high. Obama will be historically unpopular, and may be hounded out of office before his second term expires. The Republican party will either disband or reform into something else. Either way, there is likely to one or more new parties on the national scene, probably with opposing views. The 2016 election (I believe there will be one) may be the catalyst for dividing up the country into its geographic and ideological pieces — if so, this will take a while. I don’t expect to see the country still intact by 2020.
One should strive to live in a philosophically like-minded area if at all possible. Casualties may be high among those who are mismatched.
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20th February 2013 at 7:54 pm
anotherjuan says:
SSS – “It’s just not fair. I want FAIRNESS on this site. I demand fairness. Who’s with me?”
my sore loser’s dictionary defines fairness as the refuge of people who did not get their way. it’s not fair kanye gets to date kim, he has all the advantages, i want a level playing field.
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20th February 2013 at 8:49 pm