The MSM reports about retailer results this week have been spun positively. Shocking!!! I’ve heard things like, “they beat expectations”. What they don’t mention is that they delivered way below the expectations from the beginning of the year. They didn’t beat the expectations from 2 months ago. They beat the lowered expections from the previous day. This is the kind of bullshit propaganda that passes for financial journalism today. I ignore the crap being spewed by these media mouth pieces. I even ignore the press release highlights put out by the company PR departments. I go directly to the balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement and details about comparable store sales. When Home Depot, Macys, and Target reported this week the MSM did not mention that this 4th quarter included 14 weeks and last year’s 4th quarter included 13 weeks. For the math challenged, this means that this year should have an automatic 7.7% increase over last year. Anyone hear that mentioned by the faux journalists on CNBC or Marketwatch?
Here is the link to the Home Depot results:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-depot-announces-fourth-quarter-112700430.html
Here is my assessment of their results:
- The blaring headline said Home Depot sales up 13.9%, but they were really up only 6.3% because of the extra week.
- The press touted the annual sales of $74.8 billion and the net income of $4.5 billion as tremendous achievements. Well guess what? Home Depot’s sales reported SIX years ago were $79 billion, with a profit of $5.8 billion. They had higher sales and profits five years ago also.
- Buried in their press release was the fact that 4th quarter sales were given a huge BOOST from Hurricane Sandy. It’s interesting that Sandy was used as an excuse whenever there were bad economic reports, but no one mentions the one time benefits. Home Depot will not repeat the 7.1% comp store sales again.
- Their gross margins are declining. This is due to Bernanke’s non-existent inflation.
- The most interesting data point was the customer traffic in the 4th quarter. It was up 8.6%, but we know that the extra week accounted for 7.7% of this increase. This means that comparable traffic was ONLY up 0.9% in the 4th quarter and only 1.6% for the year. This means that 80% of the comparable store sales increase was due to INFLATION price increases.
- Remember the tremendous opportunity in China? Home Depot is closing up operations in China. I guess there aren’t too many customers in those ghost cities.
- Home Depot is forecasting only 2% sales increases for 2013 – not exactly booming when you consider real inflation is north of 5%.
Next up was Macys. Here is a link to their results:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/macy-inc-reports-fourth-consecutive-130000477.html
Here is my assessment of their results:
- These dirtbags touted their ANNUAL EPS growth. Maybe because their income DROPPED in the 4th quarter.
- Their 4th quarter earnings FELL by $15 million and their gross margin declined.
- They proclaimed a 7.2% sales increase, but the extra week added 7.7%, so their comparable sales FELL by 0.5%.
- They claimed that comparable sales increased 3.9%, BUT these douchebags include ONLINE sales in their comparable sales numbers, which were up 47.7% as their bricks and mortar concept dies. Extracting these on-line sales shows that actual instore sales were only up 0.6%.
- They do not report customer traffic, but it was clearly NEGATIVE based on the 0.6% increase in sales, since we know inflation accounted for at least 2% or 3% of the sales increase.
- Their forecast for comparable store sales increase in 2013 is 3.5%. This includes online sales, so they are basically forecasting 0% sales increases in their physical stores.
Target reported dreadful results this morning. Here is a link to their results:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-reports-fourth-quarter-fiscal-123000259.html
Here is my assessment of their results:
- Target reported a 6.8% sales increase for the 4th quarter, but the extra week added 7.7%, so their sales really DECLINED by 1.1%.
- Their profit DECLINED by $20 million, even with an extra week. Their gross margin is declining. They boosted this profit by reducing their allowance for losses on their credit card portfolio by $32 million. If it is doing so well, why are they selling the portfolio?
- They reported a pitiful 0.4% comparable sales increase. Their store traffic was NEGATIVE 1.0%. Any sales gains are being achieved through price increases.
- Their cash flow from operations declined by $100 million for the year.
- Their debt went up by $1.2 billion as these idiots borrowed to buy back their stock.
- Their forecast for 2013 is essentially flat on net income. I’ll take the under.
The results for these three huge retailers sucked. This is after the results of Wal-Mart and Lowes also sucked. This was during the best quarter of the year for retailers. This was before gasoline surged by 15%. This was before the payroll tax hit. This was before the surge in food prices in the pipeline. This was before real estate tax increases and Obamacare smack people in the side of the head. Only a MSM financial writer or a CNBC dimwit could look at the facts and conclude that 2013 will be better than 2012. But don’t listen to me. The stock market was up 170 points today. All must be well.
Eddie says:
Whap! Ka-Pow!
Financial Ninja Assassin admin slashes the income statements of major retailers with the Samurai Sword of Truth.
Take THAT you lying CFO curs! Your stockholders can drink your blood as it drips from your now deflated balance sheet.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
17 
0
27th February 2013 at 4:44 pm
Llpoh says:
Admin, you are great at forecasting losers. Kudos.
But what I need are some winners to invest in. So quit fucking around. Tell me what companies are going to go well, so I can make some money. Short selling the losers you pick is too risky the way the market is gamed.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
13 
0
27th February 2013 at 4:54 pm
Administrator says:
llpoh
Winners: Gun manufacturers, liquor producers, bullet proof vest manufacturers, and undertakers.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
18 
0
27th February 2013 at 5:00 pm
treemagnet says:
Not necessarily these retailers, but have you ever wondered how much total money is being spent by people preparing – from the whole range of people preparing to preppers, just starting out all the way to full tilt? I do, its just gotta be a big number – and I don’t mean just guns/ammo (which is huge), but ALL of it. In my little world, I’ve noticed some of our deliveries (residential) now include pallets of freeze dried food.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
5 
0
27th February 2013 at 5:04 pm
Administrator says:
HOLY FUCKING SHIT – AM I EVER WRONG?
J.C. Penney’s loss, sales worse than feared
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE:JCP) on Wednesday said its loss for the quarter ended Feb. 2 widened to $552 million, or $2.51 a share, from $87 million, or 41 cents a year earlier. Sales fell 28% to $3.88 billion. On an adjusted basis, its loss totaled $1.95 a share. Analysts, on average, were looking for a loss of 23 cents a share on sales of $4.09 billion, according to FactSet. Comparable store sales slumped 32%, missing the 28% drop analysts expected in a Thomson Reuters poll. Online sales dropped 34%. Penney shares slumped 6% in after-hours trading.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
7 
0
27th February 2013 at 5:09 pm
Llpoh says:
Damn, what part of companies did you not understand? Specifics, man, specifics!
Remington? Smith and Wesson? Colt? Jim Beam? I do not know any listed vest makers, nor undertakers.
You selfish bastard, you are keeping all the good info for yourself, aren’t you. And given all the ad revenue you are creaming off us TBPers, you should be ashamed of yourself for holding out on us.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
9 
0
27th February 2013 at 5:13 pm
anotherjuan says:
LLPOH , admin takes all the risk and you want equal shares?
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
5 
0
27th February 2013 at 5:24 pm
Celtic Tiger says:
Yeah, I saw the Penney’s story on Zero Hedge just before popping in here. OMG! I worked for them about 30 years ago. K-Mart too. Both headed for the dustbin within two years.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
6 
0
27th February 2013 at 5:39 pm
Eddie says:
admin and llpoh
The last businesses to fail will be the ones that supply the “troops”. Want to invest wisely? If safety were my main concern, I’d buy NOC and AVAV. Unfortunately, General Atomics is privately held.
If it makes you squirm to think about buying the stock of companies that make drones (as it does me) then perhaps the stock market is not the place to put your vast fortunes.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
5 
0
27th February 2013 at 5:59 pm
Hope@ZeroKelvin says:
None of those stores has anything to do with my prepping so I could care less.
In fact, most of the CEOs of those firms are/were big Obama cock suckers and now the Obama Shit Economy is gonna sink ‘em so karma is really a bitch, HA.
Besides, when those big box stores come to town, they drive out all the Mom & Pop stores, drive down wages/benefits, get a property tax pass for like 10 years and are full of plastic crap from China.
Fuck ‘em.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
13 
0
27th February 2013 at 6:14 pm
Llpoh says:
Anotherjuan – I expect inside info for that ad click I did back in 2011. I earned it.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
6 
0
27th February 2013 at 6:15 pm
Zarathustra says:
If I could, I would invest in Goodwill Industries.
Like or Dislike:
3 
0
27th February 2013 at 6:28 pm
Administrator says:
The company I used to replace Google ads was called Adbrite. I received an email from them in early January that they were going out of business the next day. They stiffed me for $200.
Now I’m selling space to advertisers per month. I couldn’t depend on you cheap bastards to click the ads and make me rich 10 cents at a time.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
8 
0
27th February 2013 at 6:47 pm
Llpoh says:
I guess Admin’s prediction skills are not infallible. He can predict JC Penny, but not that a company owing him money will go broke.
And the fact that he ever thought his monkeys would stop throwing shit long enough to click an ad was not especially astute, either.
Guess I will have to ask Muck for advice.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
9 
1
27th February 2013 at 7:30 pm
anotherjuan says:
Llpoh says: “I guess Admin’s prediction skills are not infallible. He can predict JC Penny, but not that a company owing him money will go broke.”
not to put myself at admin’s level, or anyone else’s but if i was an INTJ (and i think i am, my buddy mike said, the boss says you’re a dangerous man, you don’t have to go anywhere to figure out what’s going on.) i could have made a bunch of money. unfortunately, i have not the sense to take advantage of my own insights, but i share them with others at work who take full credit.
Like or Dislike:
1 
0
27th February 2013 at 9:45 pm
OF says:
Undertaker is it. I was seriously considering maybe investing in that business…
Like or Dislike:
2 
0
27th February 2013 at 4:45 am
Administrator says:
Dine Equity runs Applebees and IHOP reported a 33% decline in profits and declining traffic in their restaurants.
Same-Restaurant Sales Performance
Fourth Quarter 2012
•Applebee’s domestic system-wide same-restaurant sales increased 0.9% for the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. The increase in same-restaurant sales reflected a higher average guest check, partially offset by a decline in traffic compared to the same quarter a year ago.
•IHOP’s domestic system-wide same restaurant sales decreased 2.6% for the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. The decline in same-restaurant sales reflected a decrease in traffic and a lower average guest check compared to the same period in 2011.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
27th February 2013 at 8:13 am
Hope@ZeroKelvin says:
@OF: Don’t bother about getting into the “undertaker” trade. When TSHTF all you need is a shovel, some lime and old sheets. Nobody is gonna be paying you to do a fancy bit of undertaking, sorry. Besides, FEMA has millions of plastic coffins all ready to go!
@Admin: Yup, those middle of the range resturants are getting hit hard cuz that demographic has no freaking money to spend on eating out. Although as to IHOP, I could never see the sense in paying $10 for pancakes, eggs and bacon I could make at home for $3 (besides their food tasting like crap). Just wait until Obamacare comes into its own…..
@Zara: You don’t “invest” in Goodwill, dear. GW is a charity. You GIVE your still serviceable stuff to them and they resell it to support their good works.
Like or Dislike:
2 
0
27th February 2013 at 8:47 am
Eddie says:
Buy Case-New Holland. They will be burying people with backhoes, the way it looks.
Like or Dislike:
3 
0
27th February 2013 at 9:04 am
Chicago999444 says:
Don’t bet on undertakers.
More and more people are opting out of expensive traditional funerals with their huge expense in grave plots, vaults, caskets, and the rest, in favor of cremation. No new cemetaries have been licensed in the U.S. since 1961.
And those who choose cremation have discovered that they are being scammed by the funeral homes on this. Funeral home cremations run $2800 (the cheapest I found) clear up to $7000, because they sell you the memorial, a fancy urn, a plot or crypt space to inter the urn, a video montage of the life of the deceased.
So, realizing that a dead body is just that, and that the soul it housed has quite departed, many people are choosing places like the Illinois Cremation Society, where the basic cremation will cost around $700, and an urn will cost another $300. If they arrange the memorial, another $500. But many people want their ashes scattered, and many conduct small, personal memorials at home. Why spend money that the living need on a corpse?
Like or Dislike:
4 
0
27th February 2013 at 12:33 pm