Here we go again. The BLS is reporting that the unemployment rate FELL to a four year low of 7.7%. The MSM immediately latches onto this storyline and pronounces all is well with the economy. The stock market soars higher. The big swinging dicks on Wall Street go on CNBC and gleefully proclaim a new paradigm. Meanwhile, it’s nothing but bullshit and propaganda. Here is a link to the BLS report so you can see for yourself:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Here are the facts:
- The working age population went up by 165,000.
- The number of employed people went up by 170,000.
- Anyone with a smattering of math skills would conclude that the unemployment rate would stay the same.
- You’d be wrong. The number of unemployed people DROPPED by an astounding 300,000. And guess where they went? THEY DECIDED TO LEAVE THE LABOR FORCE. All 300,000 decided to leave the workforce in February of their own free will.
- Of course the participation rate DROPPED to a THREE decade low of 63.5% and the employment to population ratio stayed at a three decade low of 58.6%.
So let me get this straight. The working age population has gone up by 2.4 million people in the last year and we’ve only added 1.5 million new jobs, but the unemployment rate has PLUNGED from 8.3% to 7.7%.
How could this be? Do the BLS and the Washington ruling class actually think critical thinking human beings believe that 1.7 million Americans chose to leave the labor force in the last year because they don’t want a job? It’s beyond laughable, but the MSM government mouthpieces will spew these lies without a 2nd thought. They are doing their duty. If an economy is growing and in recovery mode, why would people be leaving the labor force? It’s not the Baby Boomers, because their participation rate is at an all-time high and going higher.
We do know where millions of these non-job seekers have gone. It was revealed late yesterday when another government propaganda agency reported consumer credit. It reached a new all-time high of $2.8 trillion. It went up by $10 billion, but credit card debt FELL by $19 billion. Credit card debt is 18% lower than it was in 2008. If more people are employed and confident about the future, why aren’t they using their credit cards?
Guess what went up to a new high? That’s right – STUDENT LOAN DEBT. It skyrocketed by $26 BILLION in one month. Obama and his minions continue to blow another epic bubble that will burst and cost taxpayers hundreds of billions in the not too distant future. But a forty year old former construction worker majoring in lesbian studies at the University of Phoenix is not in the labor force and doesn’t count as unemployed in the Orwellian Obama world we live in today.
So be a good muppet and listen to the corporate media and your government leaders when they tell you all is well. Buy stocks before you miss out.
ThePessimisticChemist says:
“Do the BLS and the Washington ruling class actually think critical thinking human beings believe that 1.7 million Americans chose to leave the labor force in the last year because they don’t want a job?”
There aren’t that many of us. Even among my friends who have completed their degrees, its a constant uphill battle to get them to pull the wool from over their eyes.
If I can sit them down long enough to walk through the numbers, I’ll get a convert. But such a person is rare, most people know what they know, and don’t give two flying fucks about anyone who disagrees with them.
To be honest, I think the main problem is that so many people are wholly dependent upon the government for a living. Shaking their faith in that monolithic organization tends to ruin their perfect little worlds.
My Dad is a smart man, but when I try to explain to him that we kicked off the arms race with the Soviets, and he balks right off the bat.
Why? Because our propaganda was so good during that time period, he truly believes we were the good guys, and they were the bad. One example he always brings up, their country fell while ours took off like a shot.
I’m hoping to “convert” him to the way of logic and reason before I’m able to offer up the counterargument that “the US fell too, it only took thirty more years to do it.”
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8th March 2013 at 9:30 am
Administrator says:
Published in 1999. Sells for 1 cent on Amazon.
These idiots have no shame. They write an article today saying how they will be right. They were just a little early.
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8th March 2013 at 10:05 am
Bretfox says:
You are right. Your Dad is a smart man. Listen to him.
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8th March 2013 at 10:07 am
razzle says:
Regarding the student loan debt. I read somewhere that it is counted as part of gdp, can’t remember where I read it.
3 weeks ago I had a customer come in for a repair on her vehicle. She needed brake work done, somewhat dangerous, rear brakes metal to metal. I advised her about the situation. She responded that she would return as soon as possible, as she didn’t have the money to pay for the repair at this time. She figured about 10 days or so. She needed to make up 11 hours of class credit in order to receive her next student loan deposit.
I am not demeaning the customer, I just wonder how much of this student loan money is entering the economy for necessities beyond the educational purposes.
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8th March 2013 at 10:17 am
Holmes says:
Admin:
I do believe the BLS link was improperly posted…FYI.
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8th March 2013 at 10:17 am
Administrator says:
Holmes
Thanks for the heads up. That link was more truthful than the BLS link.
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8th March 2013 at 10:25 am
Leobeer says:
Admin, I believe that Dow 36,000 is a possibility. Of course, everything else we use will have tripled in price by then as well.
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8th March 2013 at 10:29 am
bluestem says:
Got to keep the Dow up at any cost. John
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8th March 2013 at 11:02 am
Stucky says:
I am encouraged by the BLS math.
At the current rate of improvement, unemployment should be around zero in a couple years.
Sadly, most of America will believe even that number.
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8th March 2013 at 11:58 am
AWD says:
What A Difference For Jobs $1.2 Trillion In Debt Makes
by Tyler Durden on 03/08/2013
The media’s ecstatic read through of today’s Nonfarm payroll beat can barely end: after all, a print of 236k on expectations of 165K, why that has to be great. Well, it is. Until one looks to the number from February 2012, which happens to be 271,000. And even the Keynesian will agree that February follows January, which in 2013 was a downward revised 119K. January 2012? 311,000. In other words, the first two months of 2012 saw a 582,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. In 2013: 355,000. But something else happened between February 29, 2012 and February 28, 2012… Oh yes, the US government issued some $1,198,397,883,967.30 in debt. Oh, and the Fed monetized about half of this amount, and virtually all of the Treasurys issued to the right of the ZIRP period (i.e., risky debt). To summarize: $1.2 trillion in debt buys the US…. 61% of the jobs created a year ago.
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8th March 2013 at 12:16 pm
AWD says:
If you do the math,
It costs $3,200,000 of debt per job created.
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8th March 2013 at 12:19 pm
Bostonbob says:
Admin,
10,000 boomers retiring each day, 30 days later we have 7.7% unemployment.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=how%20many%20boomers%20retire%20every%20day&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pewresearch.org%2Fdaily-number%2Fbaby-boomers-retire%2F&ei=sxw6UeibEcyUrgex7IDoCQ&usg=AFQjCNFpvykwvFYMIpzYITybb6EC43FnQQ
Oh wait there participation rate is at an all time high, reminder to myself, read for comprehension. I will say I have a number of aquaintences both police and in the school systems who are retiring at 60ish. Trying to get out before some retoactively changes the rules.
Bob.
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8th March 2013 at 12:20 pm
fool on the hill says:
Fool is working on the problem.
Stay alert for his IPO.
Small pharma operation will soon bring to market DOWCIALLIS.
This will really help equities.
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8th March 2013 at 12:56 pm
Stucky says:
In January, incomes decreased 3.6%, ……… the largest monthly drop in 20 years
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8th March 2013 at 1:15 pm
Stucky says:
Ya’ll remember that TransCanada Keystone XL pipeline …… supposed to create half a million jobs?
The numbers have been … cough, cough, ahem ………..updated.
35 PERMANENT NEW JOBS
bwaaahahahahahah!stop!bwaaaahahaha
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/New-Report-States-that-Keystone-XL-will-Only-Create-35-Permanent-New-Jobs.html
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8th March 2013 at 3:10 pm
AWD says:
Every “Record” Dow Jones Point Costs $200 Million In Federal Debt
by Tyler Durden on 03/08/2013
The past week brought us history: on Tuesday, GETCO and Citadel’s HFT algos were used by the Primary Dealers and the Fed to send the Dow Jones to all time highs, subsequently pushing it to new all time highs every single day of the week, and higher on 8 of the past 9 days: a 5ish sigma event. But there is never such a thing as a free lunch. And here is the invoice: in the past 5 days alone, total Federal Debt rose from$16.640 trillion to $16.701 trillion as of moments ago: an increase of $61 billion in five days, amounting to $198,697,068 for every of the 307 Dow Jones Industrial Average points “gained” this week. Because remember: US debt is the asset that allows the Fed to engage in monetization and as a result, hand over trillions in fungible reserves to banks… mostly foreign banks.
And I present data that each job created in today’s bullshit jobs report costs $3.2 million in debt, and nobody notices or cares. This is what a topped-out collapsing empire looks like, and nobody bothered to notice. Fuckin hell.
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8th March 2013 at 5:46 pm
Administrator says:
Unemployment rates without BLS adjusting away the people who have given up.
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8th March 2013 at 10:53 am
Thunderbird says:
With 10,000 people a day leaving the workforce for retirement, or 300,000 people in 30 days it seems that someone has to replace them at the bottom rung.
There is a high demand for skilled workers in the work place; probably because of all the retirement into social security by the old skilled workers and managers.
So the uemployment/employment numbers don’t mean a thing. People who want to be employed and have a skill or skills will find employment. Those that don’t have skills or incentive will remain unemployed.
The problem with the large corporations is that they are not paying skilled workers a descent wage for their skills. This is why I encourage those with skills to market them as an independent contractor.
In addition, the giant corporations that are centrally controlled with corporate policy are now contracting and headed by CEO buffoons who don’t know the social skills to get their employees involved to save the company. Case in point: JC Penny.
These large corporations treat their employees like shit and now in these hard economic times with business declining they are going to find out how lack of loyalty is going to ruin them.
However, these times are good for self starters and innovators. So my advice for people with skills is to go independent. Your skills are badly needed. Don’t fall into the wage trap. Sell yourself. The demand for your services are out there.
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8th March 2013 at 11:04 am
Administrator says:
Posted by Jesse at 4:10 PM
Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report – The Good News, Bad News – Unadjusted Unemployment at 13%
Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report was encouraging despite the downward revision from last month’s headline grabbing number, which in part helped make up today’s headline grabbing number.
The seasonality adjustment used in this number was out of the normal bounds from past seasonality adjustments. And as one might have anticipated, the Birth Death model added its customary large number of estimated (imaginary) jobs into the mix.
As you know I prefer to look at the trends, rather than the month to month numbers which can be used to manage perception in the market and the public.
The overall trend shows that the US is not faring as badly as if it might have, at least in the short term, under an austerity regime such as that being followed in Europe.
The most encouraging statistics are the steady although somewhat anemic jobs growth, and the upturn, finally, in average pay. I could not find current median pay numbers in a chart, and this is what is most interesting to me as you know.
The Labor Participation Rate continues its decline. It is a much more significant number than the ‘headline’ unemployment rate which fluctuates in whom it decides to count as employment-seeking.
According to Bloomberg if the Labor Participation Rate was maintained as steady from before the financial collapse, and ‘discouraged workers were not eliminated, the current unemployment rate in the US would be a little north of 13%. But as workers get discouraged the government stops counting them as employment seeking, and the Labor Participation Rate falls.
And finally there is Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita, which is as close to median as I could get. And just for comparison, a chart showing Total Personal Disposable Income from 1921 to 1939, including the secondary recession of 1937 which was due to a policy error in premature Fed tightening from a fear of inflation.
I think we learned in the 1930′s that austerity after a credit bubble induced financial collapse is a destabilizing influence on civil governments. Or at least that was the case in much of the world back then. We seem to have forgotten quite a few lessons from history about regulation, reform, and the consequences of extremes in wealth inequality.
There is little doubt that if the nascent recovery falters, the ‘sequester’ will be blamed, and not the lack of reform and safeguards in the financial sector which caused the most recent financial crisis in the first place, although it was most certainly a key player in the tech bubble and collapse as well.
One can only speculate that if genuine reform, including restraints on rampant deregulation, had been enacted after the stock market excess of the Tech Bubble, would the people and the world have been spared the Financial Collapse of 2008? And what is yet to come, most likely out of Europe or China?
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8th March 2013 at 11:16 am
Administrator says:
There ARE NOT 10,000 people per day retiring.
FALSE STORYLINE
There are 10,000 per day turning 65 years old. The number of people over 65 still working is skyrocketing.
The BLS Labor Force definition is 18 to 64 years old. With 10,000 people per day turing 65 the Labor force participation rate should be going UP.
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8th March 2013 at 11:20 am
Thunderbird says:
Good point Administrator, thanks for providing a more realistic picture.
I still believe that the unemployment/employment numbers are not important because my observation is that skills and incentive will get one a job. These are lacking in the work place today.
It is also my observation that the large corporations have ruined their employee relations because of their selfish policies and that is why they seek foreign workers and labor.
The day of reckoning is coming for many of these large corporations who treat their employees like chattel and expecting them to follow and apply their arbitrary policies in the work place; even when these policies cause unintended consequences. They have attracted the type of employee that they can’t count on to be a loyal and hard worker. They have doomed themselves. Look at JC Penny and Wall Mart for two examples and follow their demise over the months ahead. A company is nothing without good employees; employees that can make decisions at the local level without the interference of insane corporate policies from an upper management that has no clue of what is going on at the local level with the customer and environment.
Good by JC Penny. You used to be a good company.
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8th March 2013 at 12:03 pm