I just started a new book, American Theocracy by Kevin Philips. It is about how politics, religion, oil and borrowed money have put this country in its current predicament. I had previously read Bad Money which was written in 2006/2007 and predicted the financial collapse. A true test of an author is when they see what is coming. Anyone can write about what happened and explain it after the fact. Philips was a tried and true Republican that finally got sick of the lies and bowing down to Wall Street and Big oil. His point of view is refreshing. Here is a one paragraph explanation of Peak Oil. Even a moron should get it. But, somehow the MSM, politicians, intellectuals, and the average citizen either don’t get it or don’t want to get it.
“A short explanation of the “peak” concept is in order. Geologists define it as the point at which at least half of a field’s reachable oil has been extracted. After this stage, getting each barrel out requires more pressure, more expense, or both. Output shrinks accordingly. After a while, despite nominal reserves that may be considerable, more energy is required to find and extract a barrel of oil than the barrel itself contains. By then, production becomes uneconomic – at least until the price of oil rises or the cost of extraction drops.”
Is that clear enough? Peak oil does not mean we have run out of oil. Half the oil in the earth is still there. All the easy to obtain oil has been extracted. Why do you think BP was drilling in one mile deep ocean? When you hear someone say that the US has hundreds of billion of barrels of oil in the Bakken Shale, don’t believe it. Most of it can not be extracted. It will only be economical to extract it at a $200 per barrel. At $200 per barrel, our way of life comes to a grinding halt. It is just over the horizon and we just go on like nothing will happen.
This is bigger than Social Security, Medicare, and deficits because it will affect us by 2015. It is depressing to watch the ineptitude, myopia and stupidity of our leaders and the disinterest of our population. We’ll get what we deserve.
KaD says:
I’m glad someone has put this on the table so plainly. I get tired of trying to explain the concept to people who don’t WANT to get it.
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31st October 2010 at 11:05 am
acjitsu says:
Have the book, haven’t read it yet. Wondering if his perspective swayed too far over the the left? Also, bought “Crossing the Rubicon, The Decline of the American Empire at the end of the age of oil.” Ruppert seems to have a really good grasp on Peak Oil, even though his movie, “Collapse” is a bit dramatic.
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31st October 2010 at 2:44 pm
admin says:
acjitsu
Kevin Philips is certainly not left. He just seems to tell it like it is. He comes across as a realist, disgusted with both parties.
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31st October 2010 at 4:52 pm
Kill Bill says:
Geologists define it as the point at which at least half of a field’s reachable oil has been extracted.
Many define it as half of ALL known fields have been depleted. Typo?
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31st October 2010 at 8:04 pm
eugend66 says:
Either 200 USD per barrel or a sharp decline of the quality of life, shortages, riots, pain.
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31st October 2010 at 4:32 am
Yojimbo says:
Admin
I agree wholeheartedly with you. However, I see one small weakness in your statement for which others might take you to task.
“Why do you think BP was drilling in one mile deep ocean?”
Isn’t part of the reason because shallow water drilling has been banned?
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31st October 2010 at 7:35 am
Steve in Hungary says:
You may be right about shallow water drilling, but where I came from (UK) both the UK and Norway have sucked the relatively shallow waters of the North Sea virtually dry. Production peaked in 1999 (UK sector) and 2001 (Norway sector).
So, maybe deep water because there’s nothing left on land that can give the volumes required. Tar sands won’t cut it (maybe 2.5 mbbs/day) and oil shales definitely won’t cut it. Perhaps you might consider why the Saudis are now doing offshore and why they have announced a halt to exploration. All the easy stuff is either gone, or going fast.
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31st October 2010 at 8:27 am
admin says:
Shallow water drilling wasn’t banned in the Gulf of Mexico until after the BP disaster.
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31st October 2010 at 8:56 am
ssgconway says:
It’s funny how the Hand of Providence moves. I found “American Theocracy” in a dollar-store bin a while back, and it’s been on my mind to finish reading it. Now I will. What strikes me is how the same ideas, broadly speaking, occur to disparate people, and how those ideas are transmitted to others, such as the online community Jim Q. fosters here.
The turn of the tide is nearing. I stopped by to see friends on one of my weekly trips to Detroit last Wednesday. They were out, but their 22 y/o son was home. He’s an ex-computer science major who has taken up urban farming. We talked about how he and his friends harvest mulberries from a tree that grew up in a spot of land next to a multi-story parking garage, among other things. The knowledge of how to live off the land, even amidst the ruins, is being discovered and shared. In that, I have hope for the future.
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31st October 2010 at 9:16 am
ropesolo says:
much of the peak oil denial observed is rooted in an ignorance of the 2nd law of thermodynamics. peak oil is entropy illustrated. ignore entropy at your own peril.
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31st October 2010 at 9:45 am