Auto sales are selling at an annual rate of 12.3 million. The MSM is ecstatic. Buy GM stock. But wait. Let’s pull out a handy dandy chart and surprise, surprise. Auto sales are at the same level as the 1991 recession. They are selling at a lower level than they were in 1973 and 1978 and about 4 million below the pace of the mid 1980s. Here was the population of the United States back then versus now.
- 1973 – 212 Million population – 15.8 million car sales – 74 cars per 1,000 people
- 1978 – 223 Million population – 16.0 million car sales – 72 cars per 1,000 people
- 1987 – 242 Million population – 18.0 million car sales – 74 cars per 1,000 people
- 2011 – 310 Million population – 12.3 million car sales – 40 cars per 1,000 people
The MSM strikes again. We are selling cars at a pace 46% below the pace from 3 or 4 decades ago and they are screaming from the rooftops about the great car sales. The MSM is pitiful and disgusting.
Thinker says:
I see in Reuters’ reporting of this, they claim one of the main reasons auto sales are “increasing” is because consumer confidence is increasing. Funny, various polls on that subject show that’s not the case, either.
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4th January 2011 at 5:37 pm
thoughtcrime says:
Lies, damn lies and statistics. Ugh!
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4th January 2011 at 5:49 pm
DavosSherman says:
Oh, car sales are increasing – in China.
“China sold more than 13.5m vehicles last year, the official Xinhua news agency said today, compared with 10.4m cars and light trucks sold in the US, the lowest level in 27 years.”
Link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/08/china-us-car-sales-overtakes
This article speaks of US Peak Travel : http://www.wired.com/autopia/2011/01/study-suggests-weve-hit-peak-travel/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+wired/index+(Wired:+Index+3+(Top+Stories+2))&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
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4th January 2011 at 5:57 pm
Smokey says:
Cars cost far more today, last much longer and require much less maintenance now.
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4th January 2011 at 6:01 pm
Administrator says:
The average cost of a car in 1970 was $3,900. The CPI in 1970 was 37.8. The CPI today is 218.8.
$3,900 X 218.8/37.8 = $22,575
On an inflation adjusted basis, cars do not cost far more today. People keep their cars for 4 or 5 years on average before trading them in for a new one.
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4th January 2011 at 7:31 pm
Administrator says:
Zero Hedge shows that GM is inventory stuffing at their dealers. Blatant manipulation.
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4th January 2011 at 7:34 pm
Administrator says:
Smokey
How did you get 6 thumbs up with such a weak post? Are you pulling an RE?
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4th January 2011 at 7:46 pm
Snake says:
Admin,
Wow, you are quick. I question you and WHAM there it is.
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4th January 2011 at 7:56 pm
Jackson says:
Re lower car sales numbers – Of course you have to take into account that cars are better built now than they ever have been. For that reason people are holding on to their cars longer. Why should we in the middle class trade in our decade old vans when they run like tops, cost pennies to insure, and are like old family retainers?
Besides there are more important things for us to spend money on now. Higher priced groceries, tax increases, and saving for the next great Depression take priority. They’re necessities. Those costs and putting out for guns galore to defend ourselves and homes means we have little left to ante up for new wheels.
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4th January 2011 at 9:33 pm
TeresaE says:
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
I just had this discussion with a brother-in-law and asked him how the industry could be “booming” when sales were lower.
Now to find the numbers of licensed drivers from each of those years and compare that. I know it won’t make it look any better.
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4th January 2011 at 9:34 am
Thinker says:
Just one more fun fact… I looked up number of 1- and 2-car households in the U.S. In 2006, 24.73% of households had 1 car; by 2010, that number was 23.36%.
For two-car households, the 2006 figure was 37.42%, compared to 37.21% in 2010. Of course, the number of households grew during this time, so that can be factored in.
In our small, rural community, I’ve noticed more and more people walking and bicycling to / from the grocery store. I wondered if it was a function of losing one car from the household, or a function of high fuel prices. Either way, it’s an indication of the real economic environment we’re in.
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4th January 2011 at 9:39 am
Administrator says:
In 1970 there were 112 million drivers and 108 million cars (.96 cars per driver). This was before women went into the workforce in great numbers. One car per household was common.
Today there are 208 million drivers and 260 million cars (1.25 cars per driver). 30% more cars per driver since 1970. More is better. The American way.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_United_States
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4th January 2011 at 9:57 am
Smokey says:
Administrator——Did I say inflation adjusted basis?
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4th January 2011 at 10:01 am
Smokey says:
Obviously that MASSIVE onslaught of thumbs up to my comment is based as much on WHO made the comment as it is on the brilliance of the comment.
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4th January 2011 at 10:05 am
Administrator says:
Smokey
You can’t make a statement that car prices are much higher than they were in 1970 as proof that car sales should be lower and not take inflation into account.
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4th January 2011 at 10:17 am
Smokey says:
I can’t? I thought I just did.
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4th January 2011 at 10:49 am
Thinker says:
Smokey,
He meant, “you MAY not.”
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4th January 2011 at 11:11 am