Oh What a Tangled Web We Weave

6 comments

Posted on 16th December 2012 by MuckAbout in Economy

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If this doesn’t piss you off, nothing will.  Let’s just solve all our problems by making the BIG LIE official policy of the Government (as if it isn’t already!).  Now the FED is going to set it QE4EVA policy based on unemployment – which figures are just as big lies as the “official” CPI rate which understates inflation by a minimum of 7%  (Official CPI year over year: 2%, true year over year is 9%).  So what do we do?  Modify the way the CPI is figured, yet once again, so any adjustments to payments made based on the “official” CPI will be lower – saving the Goobermint money and putting the greased pole to anyone receiving benefits.

Now benefits from Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, Obamaphones, SNAP and Social Security are going to have to be reformed and probably cut.  But WHY IN HELL CAN’T THE GOVERNMENT BE HONEST AND SAY, “Hey guys and girls, we’re going broke and can’t afford these entitlements.” instead of LYING about it, not reducing Gooberment spending, fraud and abuse, cut Federal salaries (especially the automatic pay raises CONgress awarded themselves) and everyone share the pain?  

This “suggestion” sucks and John Rubino calls them on it..

 

Hat tip to  John Rubino

 

By the age of 12 or so, most people have learned through bitter experience that dishonesty is hard to pull off, because one lie tends to require more lies, until the complexity of the situation exceeds the liar’s ability keep everything straight.

This is just as true for governments as for individuals, especially when it comes to money. A currency that holds its value over long periods of time is nice but restrictive, because it limits a government’s ability to fight multiple wars and buy votes with generous social programs. So every government eventually resorts to monetary inflation, which is a combination of theft and deceit – or fraud, as it’s known in legal circles. By creating large amounts of new currency, a country lowers the value of each piece of currency in the hands of citizens, thus secretly taxing them to run the government. Then, to mask the effects of this stealth tax, governments distort their reported economic statistics to portray a world that’s healthier than the one most people experience. The goal is to siphon off as much wealth as possible while keeping the victims docile for as long as possible. The longer the con runs, the richer the people at the top become.

Eventually the gap between government reports and individual experience grows so wide that the lie is revealed and the scam ends, either through some sort of revolution or a financial collapse or both. A sign that we’re approaching that point is the following article, in which Time Magazine advocates making a heretofore-unspoken part of the con explicit government policy:

Fixing Inflation Adjustments Is the Smart Way to Shrink the Deficit

Let’s face it: There’s no way to reduce America’s budget deficit that won’t hurt someone, and that pain can’t be limited only to the rich. A payroll tax, passed in 2010, is scheduled to expire at the end of this year, for example, and that will cost middle-class households anywhere from $600 to $1,200. In addition, more than 20 million taxpayers could become subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT), adding several hundred dollars to their annual tax bills on average. On the spending side, budget cuts would not only reduce government services but could also eventually cost tens of thousands of Americans their jobs.

But there are other ways to make progress on the deficit over the long term that would be a lot less painful and would also be politically viable. In my last column, I wrote about the estimated $30 billion a year that the Federal government could save by getting really tough on fraud. Even more could be done, though, by changing the inflation adjustments for government spending.

Cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) are used throughout the U.S. economy – for union contracts and income tax brackets, as well as for government entitlements. It may seem only fair to adjust contracts and government programs for inflation – otherwise recipients would see their standard of living steadily erode over time. But there are a lot of ways to adjust for inflation. Moreover, the most commonly used gauge, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), may overstate the adjustment needed. Switching to a more conservative measure could save as much as $200 billion over the coming decade.

The most commonly proposed change is to replace the CPI with another index called the “chained CPI.” Basically, inflation is calculated based on putting together a basket of commonly bought goods and services and then tracking the price increases for them. In reality, though, people don’t consistently buy the same things. If one particular item – steak, for example – gets very expensive, people will typically buy something cheaper instead, such as chicken. The chained CPI takes into account the substitution of cheaper items for things that get too expensive, and is therefore arguably more accurate than the regular CPI. It also rises a little bit more slowly.

The result of replacing the regular CPI with the chained CPI would be slightly slower increases in monthly Social Security payments and some other government benefits. The new measure would also modestly boost tax revenues. The reason: tax brackets are indexed to inflation and would ratchet up more slowly if the chained CPI were used to adjust them. For many taxpayers, that would mean that some of their income would fall in a higher bracket.

Further savings could come from changing the formula used to calculate initial Social Security benefits. Because Social Security was originally designed to mimic a pension plan rather than look like a welfare entitlement, initial benefits are pegged to retirees’ earnings over their working lives. Because the general standard of living improves over time, wages and salaries normally outpace inflation – and so do initial Social Security benefits. (After benefits have begun, further increases are based on a more usual cost-of-living adjustment.) Some economists have long argued for altering the formula for initial benefits. Keeping the current more generous earnings-based calculation for lower-income retirees but switching to an inflation-based calculation for the more-affluent half of the population could eliminate half of the Social Security deficit over the next 75 years.

Such fixes to benefit plans are not uncontroversial. When a recent Republican budget proposal included changes to the way the Federal government calculates inflation, the idea was swiftly rejected by some Democrats. Opponents of the idea objected that retirees face higher inflation than the average American because of health-care costs and that some of the tax increases would fall on the middle class. It’s true, of course, that altering inflation adjustments will limit future benefit increases and cause an upward creep in income taxes. But the idea that the Federal deficit can be brought down to sustainable levels without anyone giving up anything is simply unrealistic. Hiking tax rates on the rich alone will raise enough revenue to cut the deficit only by about 8%. In the end, simple arithmetic ensures that the bulk of deficit reduction will come from the middle class – the challenge is to minimize the pain.

Unfortunately, tinkering with inflation adjustments will be little help with other runaway costs – most significantly health care, which presents even greater long-term budget problems than Social Security does. Advances in medicine often make treatment more expensive. In addition, health care is labor intensive, and in all service sectors it’s hard to offset rising labor costs with the sort of productivity gains that can be achieved in manufacturing. Doctors can only see so many patients an hour, teachers can only correct so many papers, and there’s a limit to how fast a pianist can play the minute waltz.

But where rising costs are chiefly the result of inflation adjustments, fine-tuning those mechanisms may be the least painful way to start bringing down the long-term deficit. The spending cuts that are currently scheduled to go into effect next year in the absence of a budget deal look horrific and could result in 7% to 9% reductions in a broad range of Federal programs. Surely it seems more rational to minimize the need for such sudden, deep, and indiscriminate cuts in the near term by accepting smaller increases in government spending over the coming decades.

Some thoughts:
This is a perfect example of how lying sometimes corrupts both liar and victim. The honest approach to a situation where there’s not enough wealth would be to explain that everything from the military empire to the welfare state will henceforth have to live smaller. But that’s both hard to say and hard to hear, which makes the lie relatively painless for both sides. Just keep telling citizens that they’ll get everything they expect, while actually giving them a little less each year. Government gets the inflation-generated resources it wants, and the recipients of government spending get to pretend for a while longer that they’re taken care of. The problem is pushed into the future for tomorrow’s leaders and the children of today’s recipients to deal with.

Put more clearly, US voters are enabling the liars because – despite the mounting evidence that the lies are coming at our expense – we prefer the comfort of those lies to the harsh reality of no more free money for the lifestyles we thought were our birthright.

The result of dishonest public policy being enabled by voters in denial is a corrupt society, where lying – as in the article reprinted above – becomes acceptable public policy. We’re not far from the old Soviet joke, “we pretend to work and they pretend to pay us.”

INFLATION OR DEFLATION – OPEN THREAD

13 comments

Posted on 4th September 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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The Federal Reserve has inflated away 96% of the purchasing power of the dollar since 1913. If you don’t believe me, calculate it for yourself:

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

So, the question is whether we will experience inflation or deflation over the next ten years.

ONE MONTH

9 comments

Posted on 19th July 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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These deflationary trends sure are killing us. Ben Bernanke has the balls to sit in front of Congress this week and declare inflation under control. I keep being told by the MSM that home prices are rising. I’m told by the MSM that rents are soaring. The charts below prove that energy and food prices are skyrocketing. But, somehow the CPI says there is no inflation. Maybe the BLS has assumed you’ve switched from steak to hamburger to eating stink bugs, therefore there has been no food inflation. The charts below are for one freaking month.

OIL

HEATING OIL

NATURAL GAS

UNLEADED GAS

CORN

SOYBEANS

WHEAT

COFFEE

SUGAR

 

Your burger is about to get pricier

By Hibah Yousuf @CNNMoneyInvestJuly 18, 2012: 10:47 AM ET

 
corn prices, food inflation, beef, pork, poultry, dairyIf the Midwest drought lingers and the high cost of corn continues to weigh on farmers, consumers could face an increase as high as 10% for fresh protein at the grocery store.

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — As the widespread drought continues to damage grain crops across the Midwest, consumers could soon be facing steeper bills at the grocery store.

“We haven’t seen any rain at all, and based on that, food inflation is definitely a real threat,” said Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago.

The dry, scorching heat has had the most severe impact on corn crops.

Nearly 40% of the corn planted across the nation is in poor or very poor condition, compared to just 11% at this time last year, according to to the U.S. Department of Agriculture

The drought and the fear that conditions could worsen, further pressuring crop yields, has triggered a 50% spike in the prices of corn futures over the past month to $7.79 per bushel.

On average, food prices typically rise 1% overall for every 50% jump in corn prices, said Richard Volpe, an economist for the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, but particular categories of food are impacted more severely.

Analysts and economists predict that prices of beef, pork and poultry will jump the most, as corn is the main feedstock for chicken, cattle and pigs.

Prior to the drought, analysts had predicted a 4% to 6% rise in retail beef prices, said Michael Miller, senior vice president of global research for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.

But if the drought lingers and the high cost of corn continues to weigh on farmers, consumers could face an increase as high as 10% for fresh protein at the grocery store, said Miller. That means beef prices could jump from an average of $4.35 per pound in 2011 to an average of nearly $4.80 per pound this year.

The true extent of the increases won’t be known until the crops are harvested later this year, and prices won’t jump overnight of course. In fact, consumers will likely face the trickle down effect toward the end of this year, and into the start of 2013, Miller added.

“We’re in one of those situations where everyone is watching the weather and corn prices from the edge of their seats,” said Miller. “This is the first time in a long time that we’ve had a drought this significant in the Corn Belt, and that’s why the market is so nervous.”

Weather experts aren’t at all optimistic in their forecasts. According to AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist Alex Sosonowski, “the combination of too much hit and too little rain moving forward into the middle of August will prove to be too much for corn to take.”

While the price of meat and milk products will likely rise as a result of higher corn prices, other products, like a box of corn flakes, will remain relatively steady, according to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, as prices for those types of foods are more heavily impacted by packaging, processing, advertising, and transportation. In fact, a 49% increase in corn prices only raises the price of a box of corn flakes by about 0.5%

A FUNNY THING HAPPENED ON THE WAY TO DEFLATION

15 comments

Posted on 3rd July 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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It should be clear to all the critical thinking members of TBP that we’ve entered part two of the Greater Depression. The MSM continues to spew out happy talk and propaganda. We all know it’s bullshit. We know real wages are falling. We know millions are falling off the extended unemployment rolls. We know there is no real housing recovery. We know the upcoming jobs report is going to show no job growth. We see the Space Available and For Lease signs in the strip malls across the land. We know that retailers have flat to negative real sales. We know the auto sales are being gamed by cheap loans to subprime borrowers using Ally Financial and the Wall Street banks by the Federal Government. We know our National Debt is growing at $3.8 billion per day.

So we should be experiencing deflation, right? The BLS says prices are dropping. They wouldn’t lie, right? Well here are a few facts not being reported by the MSM or the BLS or the Federal Reserve. Oil is up $9 in the last week or an 11.5% increase. It is back to where it was on June 1 at $86.50 per barrel. So much for those falling gas prices. It seems cutting off Iranian oil supplies to the EU does impact prices. Obama must have skipped Econ 101 for Community Organizing 69.

Now for the really interesting data. Get a load of these charts:

NATURAL GAS

 

COPPER

CORN

SOYBEANS

WHEAT

PORK

COCOA

COFFEE

COTTON

SUGAR

Isn’t it funny how you haven’t heard about the surge in food prices in the last month? None of these price increases can be attributed to booming economies. Europe is in a depression. China has slowed dramatically. The U.S. is in a recession. But we now have surging prices for energy, food and clothing.

The Federal Reserve is responsible for this situation. They continue to destroy the middle class with their zero interest rate policy and creation of inflation. We now have declining wages, more job losses, new healthcare taxes, record levels of debt and now higher prices for food and energy. Sounds like a recipe for an Obama re-election.

Open your eyes people. We are getting fucked. 

The Deflationary Undertow Before The Inflationary Wave

9 comments

Posted on 16th February 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Gonzalo adjusting his inflation outlook slightly.

 

Ride the wave, or drown. 

War between Israel and Iran now seems inevitable. Leon Panetta claimed that it would be this coming spring—and I see no reason to doubt him.

How an Israeli-Iranian war will play out—that is, whether it will draw in more geopolitical actors (such as the U.S.), or if it will be a series of limited attacks, counter-attacks, and then stalemate—is impossible to predict. War tends to take on a life of its own.

But we can predict how it will affect the global markets.

A very reasonable assumption is that oil supplies, especially to Europe, will be severely curtailed. Aside from the fact that one fifth of the world’s oil production passes through the Straight of Hormuz—ground zero of a war with Iran—the rest of the world and especially Europe depends on Iranian oil. As discussed in the SPG Scenario of this past June (“An Israeli-Iranian War?”), close to 10% of the eurozone’s oil comes from Iran—and the countries most particularly dependent on Iranian oil are precisely those most in trouble right now: The so-called PIIGS.

So oil prices will inevitably rise. And so—just like 1979, after the overthrow of the Shah of Iran and the subsequent Oil Shock—the world’s economies will experience another likely oil shock which will send up the price of oil, hurting the world economies rather badly—

—and driving up inflation.

Dollar inflation and euro inflation is in the offing, in the weeks and months following a war with Iran. The assets that will rise drastically in price will be precious metals, especially silver; agricultural commodities; and oil—obviously. The assets that will collapse in price will be sovereign bonds, corporate bonds, and equities, in that order. In the Scenario, I discussed which countries will hurt the most, so I won’t bother repeating what I wrote there.

However, notice I say that inflation will rise “in the weeks and month following a war with Iran”: A war with Iran which disrupts oil supplies will—inevitably—lead to an inflationary wave.

But before that inflationary wave hits—that is, in the days and hours following the beginning of the war—we will experience a deflationary undertow.

This deflationary undertow will present some interesting opportunities.