I’VE GOT SOME BAD NEWS

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Posted on 3rd June 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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I generally try to maintain a balance between hope and despair on TBP. I attempt to mix humor with doom in order to relieve the tension of the times. Some people would prefer doom 24/7. Others think we need more optimism and positive stories. A weekend in Wildwood NJ would drain the optimism from Winnie the Pooh. We had to clean the condo before the next tenant arrived, so Avalon and I had to go to the shore when it was 80 degrees and sunny. On top of that, the kids didn’t want to go. So mom-in-law agreed to stay over and we headed down Saturday morning for a relaxing weekend. As we arrived, we could see the town was bustling with activity. It seemed this was after-prom weekend in Wildwood.

There were teenagers everywhere. I guess it is now tradition for hundreds of teens from a high school to take over entire motels for the weekend after their proms. The motels actively promote this weekend with advertising showing teenagers like this.

Sounds harmless enough. The day was beautiful and after some preliminary cleaning, we decided to take a long walk on the boardwalk. Our trek on the boardwalk was a real eye opener. After an hour of walking and observing the sights, we were equally appalled, disgusted, amused, horrified, and depressed by what we had witnessed. I can unequivocally declare that baggy pants are the least of the worries in Wildwood. Avalon was actually frightened by what she was seeing. I was just more convinced than ever before in my observations that the majority of Americans are just willfully ignorant morons. Everyone judges people by their appearance. It’s what human beings do. I did not see the teenagers pictured in the ad above. These pictures are an accurate reflection of the crowd on the Wildwood boardwalk at 4:00 pm on a Saturday afternoon in June.

  

 

 

 

 

I wish this was an exaggeration, but even these pictures don’t capture the essence of the crowd roaming freely on the Wildwood boardwalk. My visceral reaction was anger that most of these idiots had already thrown in the towel on their lives. How stupid could they be? The proliferation of tattoos among the low class is frightening to behold. Don’t these people realize that a neck tattoo or full arm tattoo has eliminated their chances to ever get a decent paying job? Teenagers are often stupid and clueless, but sometimes they mature and come to their senses in their 20′s or 30′s. I hire employees. I can tell you right now, I will never ever hire a person with a tattoo on their face, neck or any visible area of their body. If you have a cheek or nose piercing you will never be taken serious by anyone. The deforming and mutilation of their bodies is surely a sign of mental illness.

The vast majority of the low class people on the Wildwood boardwalk were oblivious to their own low classness. This is normal in America today. They are wearing $300 Air Jordan sneakers and dropping hundreds of dollars on fried oreos, fudge, rides and shooting basketballs to win an enormous stuffed pig. I would go out on a limb and guess that more than 50% of the people on that boardwalk were receiving some form of government assistance. So essentially you were paying for their fun in the sun with your tax dollars. Liberals are unable to make this connection. If the welfare state was not supporting those who are not truly in need of assistance, they would be forced to work and wouldn’t have the time to deform their bodies, become obese, or buy $300 Air Jordans. The growing welfare state has created this culture of degradation. If you can connect the dots, you win a stuffed pig.

As we were nearing the end of our journey through this funhouse of doom, I noted to Avalon that 99.9% of the people on that boardwalk would have absolutely no understanding of anything that we discuss on TBP every day. If 25% of these people could name the Vice President of the United States, I’d be surprised. They have no concern about the future of the country. They don’t understand math. It’s hard. They care about their next 1,000 calorie meal and what is on the boob tube tonight. They are the ignorant masses produced by our government run public education system and decades of corporate marketing propaganda. They are the useful idiots of the ruling class. Keep them ignorant and provide them the minimum amount of sustenance through government programs and they will remain sedated. When the EBT cards stop working, these fools will start killing each other and burning down their neighborhoods. I’d be remiss if I did not mention that every ride and booth on the entire boardwalk was manned by a clean cut, non-tattooed, non-pierced white or Asian teenager. African American teenagers made up 40% of the clientele and 0% of the workers. I wonder why?

Avalon and I agreed that we’ve reached the tipping point and there really is no hope to change the system. It’s too late. There are more of them than us. Those in control of the system are reaping the benefits and they will not willingly change it. The people on the Wildwood boardwalk don’t even know there is a problem. They don’t want to think. They just want to feel good and do whatever gives them pleasure today. It’s all about them. Civic duty is an unknown concept. Once we made it back to our condo, we had only one choice to blot out the visions we had witnessed during the day - A NIGHT AT THE SHAMROCK !!!!

The doom portion of our story was complete. The humorous portion was about to begin.

First we drove over to the Anglesea Pub for some dinner. The place has been there since the early 1900′s and they serve good beach food. We stayed long enough to play a couple of rounds of Name That Tune, but we lost by a nose. Our team (Avalon’s in the Hizzle) lost because I couldn’t remember the artist who sang Play that Funky Music White Boy. Avalon is very competitive when it comes to games, and she wasn’t happy with me.

We got back to the condo at 10:00 pm and headed out on foot to the Shamrock, which is about five blocks away. We were delighted when we saw that Billy Jack was back. It was his first performance of the summer season and he was fired up. We were there for three and a half hours and he played for three of those hours. He knows half the crowd by name. He takes requests on the fly. He invites patrons up to play with him. The bar is a huge rectangle and Billy Jack stands in the middle playing his electrified acoustic guitar with a drum machine. He also plays the harmonica when needed. He always wears a Jack Daniels headband. The bartenders automatically duck when they pass him because they have been whacked in the head with his guitar on multiple occasions. The patrons bought him beers and shots all night long while he was playing. His versatility is fantastic. His solo versions of Stairway to Heaven and Freebird were spectacular. I think he was psyched because the place was as crowded as I had ever seen it. We had trouble finding a seat at the humungous bar.

The Shamrock had survived the three foot flood waters from Hurricane Sandy with no problem. When you haven’t done anything to improve the place in the last thirty years, it’s tough to distinguish between damage and its normal everyday appearance. They did make a major upgrade in the men’s bathroom, which consists of a room length trough and one stall. The management invested in one of those orange smelling mats for the bottom of the trough. Now when you piss into the trough a delightful smell wafts through room.

We settled onto our stools and began to soak in the Cheers like atmosphere, where everybody knows your name. We both noticed the frumpy middle aged depressed woman at the end of the bar. She clearly didn’t go out of her way trying to look good on her Saturday night out on the town.  We also noticed the middle aged horn dog with a red hat trying to hit on anything that was breathing. He sat down next to me while attempting to woo the three married forty something ladies on a girls’ weekend. They shunned his advances. I told Avalon he should wait until 2:00 am and then make his move on Miss Frumpy. He decided to make his move at midnight. He appeared to be making progress. She was answering his questions and may have even cracked a smile. Then she pulled out her iPhone and began texting. Within two minutes he was sitting in the stool next to Avalon. He had been shot down by the ugliest chick in the bar. I was embarrassed for him. Then I saw Avalon turn and strike up a conversation with him. She was a little tipsy and I was worried. She told him we were rooting for him. He told her the lady said she wanted to be left alone. He laughed and left the bar a few minutes later in shame.

There was a clearly intoxicated chick directly across the bar. She had been dancing by herself and with anyone who walked by. She was guzzling her beer. She sat on her stool and seemed to be fading fast. She then proceeded to put her bare feet up on the bar. I turned to tell Avalon about this display of class and when I looked back over she was gone. She had flipped backwards onto her head. People were scrambling to pick her up. About thirty minutes later it appeared her brother or some other relative arrived to try and take her home. She was having none of it. He tried to make her leave and she started swinging at him and the bouncer had to intervene. She eventually left after having a couple glasses of water.

Then Avalon’s bathroom adventures began. She headed to the can and as she rounded the end of the bar she slipped on something and almost fell on her ass. When she came back out she realized it was puke on the floor that she had slipped in. The Shamrock is the kind of bar where you do some shots, turn around and throw up without getting off your stool, and then order another shot. And the other patrons don’t blink an eye or request a cleanup. This wasn’t even her most eventful trip to the bathroom. On the next trip she walked into the bathroom while a black girl was shuffling across the room with her pants around her ankles. Her stall didn’t have any toilet paper and there was no one to ask if they could spare a square. She took matters into her own hands and made the mad shuffle across the room, only to be caught by Avalon.

We needed this comic relief and alcohol after witnessing eyeball burning sights earlier in the day. We’ve crossed the Rubicon. There is no going back. The American people have made the choice to remain willfully ignorant. They will eventually pay a high price for this choice. The bad news is that we’ve passed the point of no return. For those of us who can see what is coming, there is a choice. We can be consumed by doom or we can just prepare as well as we can and find some enjoyment and humor in the times we have left. We all need a night at the Shamrock once in awhile.

 

 

TBP POLL OF DOOM

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Posted on 15th May 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Do you get the feeling there is something seriously wrong with the world right now? There appears to be a confluence of events that are in direct conflict. Capital markets are in disarray. Politicians are clueless and flailing about. Central Bankers have pressed their foot on the accelerator through the floorboard. Stock markets are hitting new highs. Real economic measurements are plunging. Corporations are slashing the hours of their workers. The entire Middle East is on the verge of revolution. Europe is in a deep depression and social unrest is reaching a crescendo.

I’m reminded of Vladimir Lenin’s quote about history:

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”  

I have a feeling in my gut that we are getting very close to a week when decades of history will unravel and historic events will mark a dramatic turn in world history. It’s just a feeling. Somebody will do something stupid and all hell will break loose.

I have a feeling that Japan has lit the fuse. Their stock maket has now soared by 77% in the last seven months and is accelerating upward at a rapid pace. Meanwhile, their 10Year bonds have declined by 45% in the last five days. Surging interest rates in a country with a debt to GDP ratio of 250% is suicide. The Yen has declined by 26% versus the USD in the last 6 months and 8% in the last month. These are not normal changes. The Japanese are taking a reckless gamble that will end in the Prime Minister committing hari kari.

The other extreme oddity occuring across the globe is the continuing drop in gold and silver prices even though demand for physical gold and silver is off the charts. The U.S. Mint has run out of gold and silver coins. Countries are repatriating physical gold. It takes weeks to get silver coins from dealers. People in China and India are buying gold and silver in a frenzy. JP Morgan’s vaults have the lowest amount of physical gold in history. There is a valid concern that there is not nearly enough physcial gold and silver to back up all of the paper gold and silver obligations.

The citizens of countries across the world are losing faith in their political leaders. They have already lost faith in the bankers. They are losing faith in fiat paper currencies. The natives are growing restless. Americans are buying guns in record numbers. The government is attempting override the 2nd amendment and disarm the citizens. Their fallback position has been to buy up all of the ammunition and not allow the citizens to buy it. The government is conducting military “exercises” in cities across the country. DHS is arming local police forces with military style weaponry. DHS and the military are accelerating the proliferation and use of domestic drones in communities around the country. Surveillance of citizens is increasing.

All is not well below the surface. The men behind the curtain are nervous. Their “solutions” are failing. I believe they are preparing for a scenario the average person on the street cannot fathom. I’ve been wrong before and I hope I’m wrong this time, but I’ve got a bad feeling.

What do you think will happen in the next six months?

  1. Markets will rise, the economy will recover, gold and silver will continue to fall, and people around the world will become more optimistic about the future.
  2. Markets will flatten out, along with gold and silver. The status quo will remain in effect and there will be no dramatic world events to change the course of history.
  3. A worldwide currency crisis will be created by the grand Japanese experiment leading to plunging markets across the globe. Gold and silver will rise as the only safe haven. Surging interest rates will bring down developed nations across the globe. The Middle East will explode, with wars and revolutions. The U.S. will be the least affected by the worldwide turmoil and the USD will rise.
  4. It is revealed that there is no gold or silver backing up most of the paper in the world. There is a worldwide run on banks, creating havoc and confusion. The masters of the fractional reserve banking system circle the wagons and attempt to keep people from withdrawing their money and their gold. The politicians fall into line behind their banker puppet masters. People around the world begin to realize they have been screwed. Violence and revolution breaks out in countries around the world. Obama calls out the troops. There are skirmishes and battles in cities and communities around the country. The urban areas begin to burn as the FSA stop receiving their EBT deposits.
  5. Some combination of 3 and 4.
  6. Don’t bother me. I’m busy texting someone about the American Idol finale and updating my status on Facebook.

 

Embrace the Doom

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Posted on 8th December 2012 by Novista in Economy |Politics |Social Issues |Technology

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the print edition

 A little science, history, and speculation to reveal everything you never wanted to know about the dooms and disaster the universe has in store.

From the ordinary worries about the next financial crisis to the possibilities for war, civil unrest, or martial law or even “Mad Max” world, to things that fall out of the sky (ask the dinosaurs) or Extreme Weather, to magnetic pole shift, coronal mass ejections, novae and supernovae complete with massive x-radiation — and beyond the Solar System to the fartherest reaches of the cosmos.

“Embrace the Doom” is a Grand Tour like nothing you’ve ever seen before.

all my projects

 

I’ll say this about indie publishing — CreateSpace (“an Amazon company”) is easy to use. KDP, Kindle Direct Publishing is another kettle of fish, and none of these people seem to talk to each other. KDP has two user guides, the ‘easy’ one is inadequate and the ‘techy’ one is incomprehensible — both assume everyone in the world uses Microsoft Windows.

No idea why the Doom print version does not have the Look Inside feature when all the others do. Oh well.

My only cost — other than time capital — has been ordering print proofs (and shipping that costs more than my cost of said books, grrrr. So it goes.) I’ll welcome any feedback, particularly on Kindle problems. I have three ways of reading that format on Ubuntu linux and two readers on Windows 7 new laptop, and none agree on the display, maybe the format is just flaky!

 

7th Street

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Posted on 7th August 2012 by Colma Rising in Economy |Politics |Social Issues |Technology |Uncategorized

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A ditty by Chinese Man entitled “7th Street” with a great video….

Please don good headphones if not equipped with a sub!

PROPHETS OF DOOM

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Posted on 23rd March 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

Interesting that most of these guys are still in the market, despite predicting terrible times ahead.

Money moves 5 doomsayers are making now

Prophets of gloom look to profit from Fed, corporate actions

By Wallace Witkowski, MarketWatch

Unemployed men wait outside a soup kitchen in Chicago in February 1931.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — They are sentries at the stock market’s wall of worry, warning investors to prepare for another epic crash for debt-laden economies.

But with U.S. equity markets on a tear since early October, hitting levels not touched in several years, most of Wall Street isn’t seeing much cause for alarm.

Instead, increasingly optimistic buyers have pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA)  above 13,000; the Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ:COMP)  over 3,000, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SNC:SPX)  past 1,400.

The gains extend beyond stocks. Gold (CNS:GCJ2) may be off its September 2011 high of $1,907 an ounce, but is still in the respectable mid $1,600s, and oil (NMN:CLK2)  remains above $100 a barrel. Meanwhile, yields on both the 10-year Treasury note (ICAPSD:10_YEAR) and the 30-year bond (ICAPSD:30_YEAR)  are around a percentage point lower from a year ago, boosting bond values.

Also, the greenback is rising. The U.S. Dollar Index (NYE:DXY) , a measure of the dollar against six other major currencies, is up sharply over the past 12 months.

It’s enough to make a confirmed pessimist downright gloomy.

After all, what’s a doomsayer to do when it seems everything — even Europe — is rallying? Do you stand your ground in cash, or join the crowd and closely eye the exit?

Party like it’s 2007

Of the five prominent market skeptics interviewed for this article, four are reluctantly going along for the ride.

The consensus among this group is that the rally is not sustainable — just another big party before an even bigger hangover. They see stock prices as being artificially inflated by Federal Reserve policies of quantitative easing and low interest rates, and that to put out the fires in Europe, the European Central Bank has gotten in on the act.

But, these strategists say, while these monetary drugs are palliative to markets, they require bigger doses for progressively dwindling results and will eventually fail.

Also, they believe the market’s valuation is stretched beyond what the fundamentals justify. Government policies are encouraging leveraged institutional investors and hedge funds to go long on stocks, they maintain, while cash-flush companies buy back outstanding shares from cash-strapped individual investors.

Individual investors, not incidentally, are engulfed by debt, the doomsayers point out. As they see it, consumers struggling to unwind debt are getting squeezed by higher food and energy costs. Accordingly, they’ll have even less disposable income to sustain corporate profits, the pessimists say. And one outcome these forecasters can all agree on is that the stage is being set for a big, ugly global stock-market crash.

Five shades of gray

1. Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff, chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital, said the worst investment now is bonds, because it’s the one asset that hasn’t been crushed. The second-worst option is cash, because the Fed insists that inflation is not a threat, he said.

Peter Schiff

Schiff is known for having called the 2007 financial crisis, and has been a vocal critic of artificially low interest rates set by the Fed.

Among stocks, Schiff said he’s focusing on multinationals and exporters, areas that have some insulation to a U.S. economy that he believes is heading for a crisis.

Earlier in the month, Euro Pacific’s asset management arm launched its EP Strategic U.S. Equity Fund (MFD:EPUSX) , which focuses on U.S. businesses that stand to benefit from increasing sales in overseas markets.

Schiff said the Fed can be in denial about inflation for only so long, and eventually will have to raise interest rates.

“They’ll keep [rates] low until the market forces them,” Schiff said. “It’s like trying to hide it when you’re pregnant, you can only do it for so long.”

He added: “If we get to 2014 and we don’t have a crisis, the Fed will keep rates low but at some point it won’t matter because we won’t have any money because we’ll be paying $30 for a carton of milk.”

2. Harry Dent Jr.

Harry Dent Jr., who heads research and forecasting firm HS Dent, said the recovery in the economy and markets is “artificial” in that it’s being fueled by quantitative easing measures in the U.S. and Europe.

Harry Dent

Dent notes that asset classes are rising in tandem, when normally stocks and bonds have an inverse relationship. If the economy is indeed recovering, then it shouldn’t require the Fed’s help, he said.

In fact, Dent contended, the Fed isn’t about to take the economy off life-support because that would put some $42 trillion in private U.S. debt at risk.

Dent uses demographics to inform his economic and market forecasts. He’s known for a prediction in the 1980s that Japan’s economic slowdown would last more than a decade, based on population trends, and cautions that the U.S. is setting itself up for a similar economic malaise.

Aging baby boomers are no longer fueling U.S. economic growth, he said, and younger generations can’t keep the momentum going.

“The government and most economists are in denial when the largest generation is spending less and paying down their debt,” Dent said.

If you have to be in the stock market, Dent suggests hedging stocks with the CBOE Volatility Index (MDE:VIX) . The best way to play a bubble is to realize it’s a bubble and be ready to get out quickly, he said.

For the U.S. market, Dent said he expects a near-term selloff followed by a summertime rally due to another round of quantitative easing that could last until the presidential election. After that, Dent sees a market peak in 2013 or 2014 and then another crash.

3. A. Gary Shilling

Economic consultant A. Gary Shilling said stocks are vulnerable because the U.S. consumer is worn out, and that puts businesses, and the broader economy, on a weak footing.

A. Gary Shilling

Shilling has long predicted that Fed measures to stimulate the economy will fall short and believes that the global economy is in a long period of deleveraging marked by anemic growth.

“If the consumer pulls back, there’s nothing else in the economy that can sustain growth, and if the consumer retrenches we have a recession,” Shilling said.

Corporate profits are not driving earnings and stocks, Shilling said — corporate cutbacks are. Indeed, he added, U.S. businesses are in a tricky spot where they can no longer rely on cost cutting to boost the bottom line.

“U.S. businesses have been doing this since 2000 and you’ve had consumers willing to borrow to support it, but that’s not the case anymore,” he said. “We no longer have a cushion of people willing to borrow to support corporate profits.”

Now, businesses need to hire more people to increase productivity, he said. The only problem with that is that hiring slices into profits.

For stock investors, Shilling recommends a focus on companies that pay a high dividend, particularly in utilities and consumer staples. He also favors North American energy stocks with natural-gas pipeline assets.

Outside of equities, Shilling likes long-term Treasurys for their potential appreciation rather than yield, and the U.S. dollar against the euro and the yen.

4. Charles Biderman

Charles Biderman, who heads TrimTabs Investment Research, said he’s bullish on stocks given that the Fed’s cheap money is levitating prices. But, he added, at some point stocks are going to drop.

Charles Biderman

Biderman, who approaches stock prices as a function of liquidity instead of fundamental value, expects the U.S. market to slow considerably in the second half of the year, and that the Fed will try to stimulate investment with QE3.

A day will come, Biderman said, when the Fed will pull the plug on cheap money. Then he sees the Dow tumbling to financial crisis lows in the 6,000 range. For clues, watch what companies are doing with their cash, he said.

“If buybacks slow,” he said, “that would be the time to start getting out.”

Biderman manages the AdvisorShares TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (NAR:TTFS) . The top five holdings in the $8.3 million fund include mattress maker Tempur-Pedic International Inc. (NYSE:TPX) , industrial adhesive and coating maker Nordson Corp. (NASDAQ:NDSN) , motor home and bus manufacturer Thor Industries Inc. (NYSE:THO) , Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) , and hotel chain Wyndham Worldwide Corp. (NYSE:WYN) . By sector, the ETF is overweight on consumer cyclical, health-care and technology stocks.

5. Robert Prechter

Robert Prechter

Robert Prechter, head of market forecasting firm Elliot Wave International and the most bearish of the five strategists, said investors should shun every asset class that’s popular now, including stocks, commodities, precious metals and bonds.

Prechter maintains there are parallels between today’s U.S. economy and the Great Depression. This time, a deflationary spiral threatens the nation’s health.

As for stocks, Prechter said individual investors are tapped out and that most of the market activity is driven by institutional investors. The market’s rebound since 2009, he said, is a classic bear market rally.

“Hold cash, and keep it safe,” Prechter said. “There will be another buying opportunity, probably about four years from now.”

He added: “When investors are afraid again, and when stocks are cheap again, that will be the time to buy.”