“STRONG” RETAIL SALES???

242 comments

Posted on 13th May 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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The markets are attempting to rally on the “unexpectedly positive” retail sales numbers for April. The bullshit is getting so deep in this country, you have to wear hip boots. Even though I’m a trusting soul and know the MSM and our Wall Street economist “experts” will tell me what I need to know, I decided to go directly to the report. Here is a link in case you want the actual data:

http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Here are my observations about the “strong” retail sales:

  • Through the beauty of seasonal adjustments the actual 2.7% decrease in retail sales in April versus March becomes a .09% increase, which is rounded up to .1% by the MSM. The government drones would never use seasonal adjustments to make numbers look better than they really are. Right?
  • Even with seasonal adjustments, retail sales only went up $377 million. The subprime financing scam being run by the Obama owned Ally Financial and the other government subsidized Wall Street shysters resulted in a $783 million increase in auto sales. Therefore, retail sales excluding this government use of your tax dollars actually declined by $406 billion.
  • The MSM is crowing about the lower gasoline sales which are benefitting the American consumer. If you look at the 4 month trend versus last year, you see that retail sales at gasoline stations is down 1.1% versus last year. Let me remind you that last year was the highest average price for gasoline in history, so a 1.1% decline is not exactly a windfall to the consumer. Do you see the MSM reporting the facts on this chart?

  • The first four months of retail sales in 2013 have sucked. Overall, they are up 3.3%. Subtracting the government boosted auto sales and the increase is 2.5%. Even using the government manipulated CPI yields basically flat retail sales with 2012. Using a real inflation rate of 5% reveals that real retail sales are declining by 2.5% in the first four months of 2013.
  • If there is a real housing recovery how could retail sales of furniture, electronics and building materials be languishing in the -0.7% to 3.6% range? How can general merchandise sales (Wal-Mart, Target) be 3.4% below last year?

The fact is that real retail sales are falling. The Obama tax increases and Obamacare insurance premium increases have sucked the life out of the consumer. Gas prices have risen 10 cents per gallon in the last two weeks. The busy driving season is coming. The Middle East is a powderkeg. Hurricane season isn’t far off. Companies are cutting the hours of their employees. The savings rate is already at 2.7%. Consumers are reducing credit card debt. There are 10,000 people per day turning 65. Sounds like a recipe for strong retail sale growth. Right?

Maybe a government drone economist could chime in and explain the extreme wide variation in seasonal adjustments over the last ten years. Shouldn’t seasonal adjustments for the same month be fairly consistent over time? Inquiring minds want to know.

 

10 DAYS

6 comments

Posted on 29th April 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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The S&P 500 is on the verge of a new all-time high. In the last two weeks it has risen a whopping 3.7%. The MSM is all over this dramatic increase. It’s the best time to buy. The great rotation will make you rich. Don’t miss the boat.

All you hear about in the MSM is about the crash in gold. Douchebags like Barry Ritholtz, who has been wrong about gold for 12 years, has been cackling like a double chinned hyena about what a terrible investment gold has been. Meanwhile, this investing genius has missed out on an 11% increase in gold in two weeks. I’m not hearing too much about this 11% rebound.

I’ve also heard the MSM declaring the rebirth of the consumer because gas prices have dropped so dramatically. The faux journalists may have spoken too soon. Oil prices have shot up 9.5% in less than two weeks. Just in time for summer driving season. The price at the station near my house went up 4 cents over the weekend. Expect a 20 to 30 cent increase over the next month. I’m sure the MSM won’t be crowing about that.

Lastly, the 10 year Treasury bond yield has fallen from 1.82% to 1.67% over the last two weeks. Bond yields fall when an economy is weakening. The companies that have reported 1st quarter earnings are reporting an overall 2% DECREASE in revenue versus last year. They have used accounting gimmicks to produce a 5% increase in earnings. How long can you report declining revenue and increasing earnings. The stock market is reaching new heights on hope and QEfinity. What we have is the Wile E Coyote economy. And we all know how that ends.

RETAIL SALES SURGE!!! ACCORDING TO MSM – OH YEAH IT WAS FOR GASOLINE

3 comments

Posted on 13th March 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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I see the huge MSM headline that retail sales SURGED in February. Glory be to the father, the economy is saved. One little tiny itsy bitsy problem. The SURGE was due to gasoline prices going up 15% and you having to spend gobs more money filling your gas tank. But that doesn’t make a good headline.  Here is a link to the retail report:

http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 Here are my observations:

  • “Adjusted” retail sales rose by $4.4 billion, but unadjusted sales FELL by $1.4 billion. Gotta love those government “adjustments”.
  • Note this closely. Of the $4.4 billion SURGE in retail sales, $2.3 billion was from gasoline stations. For the math challenged morons in the MSM, that means that 52% of the increase was due to average Americans spending their hard earned wages on fuel. Thank you Ben Bernanke for that non-existent inflation.
  • Another $900 million of the increase was from auto sales, which are entirely financed by cheap government debt through Ally Financial (Failed the Fed stress test) and the other criminal Wall Street banks. That accounts for another 20% of the increase.
  • Grocery stores accounted for another $400 million as food prices continue to rise. That accounts for another 9%, with internet purchases increasing $600 million (14%) because people can’t afford to drive to malls anymore.
  • Gas, autos, food, and internet purchases accounted for 95% of the retail sales SURGE. What a fantastic month!!!!
  • Sales at furniture stores, electronics stores, sporting goods stores, and restaurants FELL, even using the good old “adjusted” government figures. This is called discretionary spending. It’s where people spend when they have something left over from trying to survive their day to day existence.

I suppose the stock market will SURGE on this wonderful data. It’s really hard to watch this propaganda machine in action when you know the truth. So it goes.

U.S. retail sales jump 1.1% in February

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – U.S. retail sales posted the biggest increase in February in five months, but about half the increase took place at gas stations and reflected higher prices at the pump. Sales rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1% last month, or by 1.0% excluding the auto sector, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected retail sales to jump 0.7% for both the overall number and minus autos. Sales rose a smaller 0.6% excluding gas stations and 0.4% minus autos and gas. Retail sales are a good proxy for how fast the U.S. is growing and the latest data sugggest consumer spending is fairly steady. In the past 12 months, retail sales are up 4.6%, slightly more than double the rate of consumer inflation. Last month, sales surged at auto dealers, gas stations, building-material stores and Internet retailers. Gas-station sales shot up 5%, the biggest increase since oil prices spiked last August. Sales also rose slightly for stores that sell clothes and general merchandise. Sales fell at department stores and shops that sell home furnishings, electronics, and sporting and hobby items. Bar and restaurant sales also declined. In January, the increase in retail sales was revised up a tick to 0.2%. December sales were unchanged at a 0.5% gain.

 
 

INFLATION IS WELL CONTAINED

15 comments

Posted on 12th December 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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I’m sure glad I don’t use gasoline or eat food, or I’d think I was already experiencing inflation. Thank God for Ben Bernanke and the BLS. Without them telling me inflation is well contained, I’d be really worried.

Is This The Chart Making Bernanke Nervous?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durdenon 12/12/2012 10:35 -0500

With the Fed nervous to even let a little MEP ‘Twist’ expire (tightening), we can’t help but be a little nervous of their unbridled and passionate belief that if inflation should rear its ugly (or virtuous, perhaps, in their satanic eyes) head, they will be able to manage and tighten to control it. To wit, we note that one of the Fed’s most-watched indicators of inflation – the 5Y5Y forward inflation breakeven – has just reached its highest level in 17 months and is near its peak since the financial crisis lows in 2009 at over 3.08%. We have six little words for Bernanke, Yellen, et al. “Be Careful What You Wish For.” And by the way, the last few times, the 5Y5Y reached these levels marked a short-term top in the S&P 500.

17 month highs in inflation expectations…

 

These local peaks in inflation expectations have marked local highs in the S&P 500 also…

 

HOW LONG WILL WE NEED TO WAIT FOR A STATEMENT FROM OBAMA ABOUT THIS HATE CRIME?

111 comments

Posted on 27th March 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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I’m sure Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson are headed for Kansas City as soon as they are done making sure justice has been done in Florida. I haven’t seen a statement from Obama yet on this outrageous hate crime. I’m sure he is preparing one. I’m sure MSNBC will be dedicating an entire show to this hate crime. Right? Maybe the pastors of all those black churches across the land can carry Bic lighters at their next Sunday service in honor of this little boy. I think we have to give these poor black 16 year olds the benefit of the doubt. They probably accidently poured the gasoline on the boy and were really just offering to light his cigarette.

Justice is an interesting concept in America today.

The silence is deafening in Kansas City. Meanwhile, in Florida…………..

Teens set kid on fire for being ‘white boy’

MEENA HART DUERSON
Sunday, March 04, 2012

A 13-year-old boy who police say was doused with gasoline and lit on fire last week while walking home from school is recovering from first-degree burns to his face and head.

The boy was just two blocks from his home in Kansas City Tuesday when two teenagers began to follow him and then attacked him, his mother, Melissa Coon, said.

Police have described the suspects as black 16-year-olds, while the victim is white.

“We were told it’s a hate crime,” Coon told KTLA.

“They rushed him on the porch as he tried to get the door open,” Coon told KMBC. “(One of them) poured the gasoline, then flicked the Bic, and said, ‘This is what you deserve. You get what you deserve, white boy.’”

By lighting the gasoline, the second attacker “produced a large fireball burning the face and hair” of the boy, according to a Kansas City Police Department report obtained by KCTV.

“It was pretty bad stuff,” Detective Stacey Taylor told the TV station, adding that police are concerned the boy may have suffered damage to his eyes and lungs.

Coon said her son put out the fire with his shirt and called 911 himself. He was rushed to the hospital and was treated for his injuries.

She believes the students also attend East High School with her son, and said he will not be returning to the school. She also told KMBC her traumatized family plans now plans to move.

“My 5-year-old came in and asked me, ‘Mom, am I going to get set on fire today?’” Coon said. “I was in tears.”

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