PROOF THAT ALL ECONOMIC REPORTS ARE A LIE

35 comments

Posted on 18th January 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

, , , ,

Every manipulated, massaged, seasonally adjusted economic measurement fed to the American sheeple on a daily basis to convince them that the economy is recovering are complete and utter bullshit. It is the government’s job to mislead you and and keep you sedated. They understand the power of the message and know what propaganda techniques work best to keep you in the dark. But there are some facts that cannot be manipulated. The chart below proves that our economy is in freefall. A truly growing economy would require more energy to propel that growth. There would be more people driving to work. There would be more trucks on the road transporting goods. Just the growth in population and number of cars on the road would naturally result in more gasoline usage.

The lying MSM propagandists would spin this as better fuel efficiency and people switching to smaller cars. That is complete bullshit, as the vehicle sales data proves that people are still overwhelmingly buying SUVs, pickup trucks and luxury automobiles that get less than 20 mpg. Gasoline usage is 7% below the levels of 2006 and plunged in 2012 by 100 million barrels. Gasoline usage does not plunge when the economy is really growing. When GDP is truly measured using a real inflation rate, we have never left the recession that began in 2007 and it is getting worse. Do you believe the government storyline or the facts?

TRY TO SPIN THIS

27 comments

Posted on 10th March 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

, ,

So we are told that automobiles are selling like hotcakes. We are told that 250,000 Americans per month have been getting new jobs in the last three months. We are told that retailers and restaurants are doing great. We are told that the economy is in its third year of recovery and we are accelerating. I’m told this by my President. I’m told this by the MSM. I’m told this by the Wall Street shysters. If people are buying cars and driving to jobs, stores and restaurants, how could gasoline usage be plunging to levels last seen in 2001. Gasoline usage is far below the levels at the bottom of the financial crisis. It isn’t due to people buying fuel efficient vehicles. Over 70% of all vehicles sold are SUVs, pickups, or gas guzzling luxury cars. Petroleum usage (aka diesel) is at 1996 levels. You may have noticed that commerce is conducted in this country by 18 wheelers delivering goods all over the country. If diesel usage is plunging, how are the goods being delivered to stores selling at an increasing rate?

Could all of the positive statistics being spouted by the government and the media be a complete fabrication, completely due to seasonal adjustments to the real numbers? Are those car sales really just inventory piling up on dealers’ lots. Are those supposed added jobs actually a statistical anomaly?

Do you believe the facts or do you believe the storyline?

BALTIC DRY INDEX

7 comments

Posted on 19th February 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

, ,

The Baltic Dry Index has collapsed below the level of 2008. Part of the reason is the supply of new ships, but demand has collpsed as Europe is in a deep recession, the U.S. is headed back into recession, and China’s customers aren’t buying as much of their shit. Gallup has just reported a large jump in unemployment in February. Gasoline usage has plunged in the last month. Oil just hit a nine month high of $105 per barrel.

Politicians, Wall Street and the MSM want you to believe the economy is in good shape. Buy stocks. Buy cars. Buy another TV. Do your part. Borrow and spend to save America.

Do you really think the economy is recovering? Do you really think the stock market will be higher in six months? Really?



DO YOU BELIEVE YOUR EYES OR THE GOVERNMENT REPORTED LIES?

21 comments

Posted on 6th February 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

, ,

Below is a post from Mike Shedlock showing that gasoline and petroleum usage in the United States is plunging. This is completely counter to what you would expect if employment is growing dramatically and the economy is recovering strongly as proclaimed by the government and their media mouthpieces. If more people have jobs, there should be more cars on the road driving to those jobs. Auto sales are supposedly booming as the annual rate of sales is above 14 million versus below 10 million in 2009. My own eyes confirms the plunge in gasoline usage. Anyone who has been reading this blog for the last three years knows I’ve regularly complained about my shitty commute. Well, over the last three months my commute isn’t so shitty anymore. My regular commute was often an hour or more. Now my regular commute is always under 50 minutes. I’m travelling at the same time on the same roads. My drive home at night is particularly pleasant, with me getting home in 45 minutes on a regular basis. There are clearly less vehicles on the road. The economic recovery story is a crock of shit. The 243,000 added jobs in January is a lie. Do you believe you eyes or the government reported lies?

Huge Plunge In Petroleum and Gasoline Usage

 

Inquiring minds are watching a plunge in Petroleum Distillates and Gasoline usage.

Reader Tim Wallace writes

Hello Mish

As I have been telling you recently, there is some unprecedented data coming out in petroleum distillates, and they slap me in the face and tell me we have some very bad economic trends going on, totally out of line with such things as the hopium market – I mean stock market.

This past week I actually had to reformat my graphs as the drop off peak exceeded my bottom number for reporting off peak – a drop of ALMOST 4,000,000 BARRELS PER DAY off the peak usage in our past for this week of the year.

I have added a new graph to my distillates report, a “Graph of Raw Data” to which I have added a polynomial trendline. You can easily see that the plunge is accelerating and more than rivals 2008/09 and in gasoline is greatly exceeding the rate.

An amazing thing to note is that in two out of the last three weeks gasoline usage has dropped below 8,000,000 barrels per day.

The last time usage fell that low was the week of September 21, 2001! And you know what that week was! Prior to that you have to go back to 1996 to have a time period truly consistently below 8,000. We have done it two out of the last three weeks.

The second graph once again shows the year on year change in usage of distillates. The Obama “stimulus” package and Fed monetary actions masked the underlying systemic problems.

The third and final graph shows the changes in usage off the peak year of 2007. Once again you can see the effect of the stimulus and how now we are heading below 2008/09 in an accelerating fashion.

Looking at these numbers I believe we are about to have a surge in unemployment – by the end of April latest, possibly as early as beginning of March.

Tim

Petroleum Distillates and Gasoline Usage in Barrels per Day

click on any chart for sharper image

Note that on a best curve fit, petroleum usage is back to 1997 level and gasoline usage is back to 2001 level. Moreover, as Wallace points out, two out of the last three weeks gasoline usage has dropped below 8,000,000 barrels per day.

Year-Over-Year Petroleum and Gasoline Usage (Compared to Peak Usage)

Note the trough of the recent recession, the rebound, and now a sudden plunge in gasoline and petroleum usage once again.

Decline from Peak Usage

A mild winter can explain part of the drop in petroleum usage (heating oil), but it does not explain the declines in gasoline usage or the overall trends.

 

Get an H&R Block At Home Deluxe w/ State Tax Preparation Software (OEM) for $24.99 at Buy.com, a $20 Savings! Valid through 02/10/2012

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

MY ANECDOTAL OBSERVATION IS CONFIRMED

9 comments

Posted on 9th December 2011 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

, ,

I’ve been noticing something over the last month. I’ve been getting home from work in 40 to 45 minutes on a consistent basis. At first I thought it was just luck. But, it has become a consistent situation. There is clearly less traffic on the major highways leading to and from the City of Philadelphia. The post below confirms my suspicion. Gasoline usage has plunged in the last five weeks compared to prior years. This does not happen in when an economy is growing and employment is increasing. The government can’t fake these numbers. My conclusion is that there are more people not working and there is less commerce happening, so there are less cars and trucks on the roads. This is a sure sign we are in recession, despite the happy talk from the MSM.

So there are some benefits to our Greater Depresssion – my daily commute has improved. I’m always looking for a silver lining.

US Petroleum and Gasoline Usage Plunges Last 5 Weeks Compared to Prior Years

Here is a set of charts from reader Tim Wallace on Gasoline and Petroleum usage vs. the same five weeks in prior years. Explanations from Wallace follow each chart.

click on any chart for sharper image

Petroleum Usage

Petroleum usage history for the past 6 years for this 5 week snapshot – you can see the drop from ’06 to ’07 was small but I caught that trend in Oct of ’07 and got out of the market.

My experience suggests that if petroleum does not grow at least 0.8% year on year the economy is headed recessionary. Notice the plunge of ’08 into the abyss of ’09.

We see a good improvement in 2010, not anywhere near the recovery we need as we were in an abyss, but it shows improvement. This year, we see another significant downturn, reflective of a stalled at-bet economy.

Gasoline Usage

Gasoline usage history shows a small rise in ’07, then a plunge in ’08. Usage level for the next two years was flat, followed by a huge plunge now. I did not expect this plunge because gasoline is a lot less volatile in my historical analysis than the overall distillates, some of which are weather related, such as heating oil.

It raises the question, why have people stopping driving, because that is what is happening.

Fuel Distillates Usage

The third chart shows the fuel distillates usage. This is the diesel, heating oil segment combined. Diesel makes up 17% of all petroleum and heating oil 3%. Much of the driver in the petroleum usage drop in ’08 and ’09 came from this segment of the economy. The current drop is due to a huge plunge in gasoline usage.

Percent Change from 2006 Baseline

The final chart shows the percentage changes in the past five years off the 2006 baseline. You can see gasoline at about 46% of distillates usage is the driver for the big drop in petroleum right now.

Cash-for-Clunkers Mileage Improvement Not the Explanation for Gasoline Plunge

Please see Crude Futures Have Risen Significantly, So Why are Gasoline Prices Relatively Low? for additional commentary and a rebuttal to the idea that improved mileage or cash-for-clunkers may have anything to do with the current decline in gasoline usage.

The best explanation for declining gasoline usage is that millions have dropped out of the labor force.

Quick Facts on Unemployment Rate

  • In the last year, the civilian population rose by 1,726,000. Yet the labor force fell by 67,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 1,793,000.   
  • In November, those “Not in Labor Force” rose by a whopping 487,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.  
  • Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

 
Please see Charts of the Day: Labor Force and Unemployment Rate Adjusted for Population Growth Since 1948 Show Falling Unemployment Rate is “Statistical Mirage” for details and charts.

People have given up looking for work, entered forced retirement collecting social security, ran out of unemployment benefits, do more shopping online, or are simply too broke (or have less desire) to travel than before. 

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com