AND THE BAND PLAYED ON

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Posted on 21st May 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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A confluence of events last week has me reminiscing about the days gone by and apprehensive about the future. I’ve spent a substantial portion of my adulthood rushing to baseball fields, hockey rinks, gymnasiums, and school auditoriums after a long day at work. I’d be lying if I said I enjoyed every moment. Watching eight year olds trying to throw a strike for two hours can become excruciatingly mind-numbing. But, the years of baseball, hockey, basketball, and band taught my boys life lessons about teamwork, sportsmanship, winning, losing, hard work, and having fun. There were championship teams, awful teams and of course trophies for finishing in 7th place. As my boys have gotten older and no longer participate in organized sports, the time commitment has dropped considerably. Last week was one of those few occasions where I had to rush home from work, wolf down a slice of pizza and head out to a school function. It was the annual 8th grade Spring concert.

My youngest son was one of a hundred kids in the 8th grade choir. I think it was mandatory, since none of my kids like to sing. As my wife and I found a seat in the back of the auditorium where we could make a quick escape at the conclusion of the show, neither of us were enthused with the prospect of spending the next ninety minutes listening to off-key music and lame songs. I’ve been jaded by sitting through these ordeals since pre-school. But a funny thing happened during my 30th band concert. I began to feel sentimental about the past and sorrowful about the future for these Millennials.

The Millennial generation was born between 1982 and 2004. Therefore, they range in age from 9 years old to 31 years old. There are approximately 87 million of them, or 27.5% of the U.S. population. In comparison, the much ballyhooed Boomer generation only has 65 million cohorts remaining on this earth. The Millennials will have a much greater influence on the direction of this country over the next fifteen years than the currently in control Boomers. There has been abundant scorn heaped upon this young generation by their elders. In a fit of irrationality befit the arrogant, hubristic, delusional elder generations, they somehow blame a cohort in which 54 million of them are still younger than 21 years old for many of the ills afflicting our society. This disgusting display of hubris is par for the course among these delusional elders.

Are Millennials addicted to their iGadgets, cell phones and Facebook pages? Probably. Do they spend too much time on the internet and playing PS3 & Xbox? Certainly. Have they been indoctrinated in social engineering gibberish like diversity and planet worship by government run public school bureaucrats? Absolutely. Are they young, foolish, immature, irrational and not respectful towards their elders? You betcha. Teenagers have acted like this forever. You acted like that. The ongoing crisis in this country and our unsustainable economic system are in no way the result of anything perpetrated by the Millennial generation.

Can the Millennial generation be blamed for the $17 trillion national debt, $222 trillion of unfunded un-payable social obligations promised by corrupt politicians, $1 trillion of annual deficits, undeclared wars being waged across the globe on behalf of the military industrial complex arms dealer mega-corporations, economic policies that have resulted in 48 million people dependent on food stamps, tax policies that enrich those who write the code, trade policies that benefit corporations who gutted the industrial base and shipped jobs overseas to slave labor factories, or monetary policies that have destroyed 96% of the dollar’s purchasing power? They had no say in the creation of our untenable welfare/warfare state.

There are no Millennials among the 535 corrupt bought off politicians slithering down the halls of Congress. There are no Millennials running the Too Big To Control Wall Street banks. There are no Millennials in charge of the mega-corporations that buy and sell our politicians. There are no Millennials at the upper echelon of the Military Industrial Complex or in the upper ranks of the U.S. Military. But, and this is a big but, they have done most of the dying in the Middle East over the last ten years in our multiple undeclared preemptive wars of aggression. They have died under the false pretenses of a War on Terror, when they are truly dying on behalf of the crony capitalists who profit from never ending war. They have been fighting and dying to protect “our oil” that happens to be under “their sand”. If the energy independence storyline was true, why is our military perpetually at war in the Middle East?

The Millennials will also be required to do the heavy lifting over the next fifteen years of this Fourth Turning Crisis. The Silent Generation is dying off rapidly. The Boomer generation has done some hard living and some hefty eating and with the oldest of their cohort hitting 70 years old, their supremacy will begin to diminish over the coming fifteen years. At 87 million strong, and millions yet to reach voting age, the Millennials will become more influential by the day regarding the future course of this nation. The question is what will be left of this country by the time they assume control. They are saddled with $1 trillion of student loan debt, peddled to them by the government and Wall Street with the false promise of good paying jobs and the opportunity for a better life than their parents lived. They have obediently followed the path laid out by their elders, but they have been badly misled. This American dream has been shattered upon an iceberg of debt, delusion, deception and denial. The unsinkable American empire’s hubris and arrogance are leading to its demise. The Millennials are coming of age during a Crisis that will reach momentous magnitudes over the next fifteen years, and they had nothing to do with creating the circumstances which will propel the chaos and anarchy that ensues. But, they will bear the brunt of the dreadful consequences.

Generational Bridge

“The Boomers’ old age will loom, exposing the thinness in private savings and the unsustainability of public promises. The 13ers will reach their make or break peak earning years, realizing at last that they can’t all be lucky exceptions to their stagnating average income. Millennials will come of age facing debts, tax burdens, and two tier wage structures that older generations will now declare intolerable.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning

The kids on the stage at the 8th grade Spring concert were all around 14 years old. They are unaware they are in the midst of a twenty year period of Crisis. The boys are at that gawky looking stage with pimply faces and gawky limbs. The girls mature quicker than the boys at that age. These youngsters have barely begun their lives. I was amazed at their proficiency with a wide variety of musical instruments. They displayed poise and talent. The soloists exhibited composure well beyond their years. The performers were all musically endowed and proved that hard work and practice pays off. They were clearly enjoying themselves. They were all dressed in their Sunday best. I found myself enjoying the show despite my jaded attitude upon entering the auditorium. Even my son, wearing one of my ties, actually appeared to be singing during the choir performance. What I saw were hundreds of bright eyed Millennials with their hopes and dreams for a bright future intact. They have no idea what trials and tribulations await them.

I reached a milestone on the age chart last week that had me ruminating about yesteryear and contemplating the future. I reached the half century mark. Birthdays generally do not faze me, but the intersection of the 8th grade concert and my landmark birthday had me pondering my purpose for inhabiting this world. I’ve likely realized two-thirds of my life. The final third of my life will be spent trying to maneuver through the minefields of this Fourth Turning. I’m a father to three Millennial boys. I consider it my duty to defend and support them during this Crisis. Strauss & Howe wrote their book in 1997 and predicted a Great Devaluation in the financial markets around the time Millennials were entering their twenties. This Crisis began in September 2008 with the worldwide financial collapse created by Wall Street “Greed is Good” Boomers, as the oldest Millennials entered their twenties. It continues to worsen as more Millennials approach their twenties. We’ve reached a point in history when the elder generations need to sacrifice in order to insure younger generations have a chance at some form of the American dream.

I believe each generation has an obligation to future generations. We are bridge between preceding generations and future generations. We have a civic obligation to manage the resources of the country in a prudent manner. It’s our duty to leave the country in a financially viable condition so younger generations have an opportunity to live a better life than their parents. Every generation that preceded the Millennials has achieved the goal of having a better standard of living than their parents. I don’t believe my boys will enjoy a better life than I’ve lived. We’ve lived well beyond our means for decades. Government, Wall Street banks, corporations and individuals have run up a $56 trillion tab and are sticking the Millennials with the bill.

The $17 trillion national debt accumulated by elder generations to benefit themselves and $222 trillion of unfunded entitlements promised to themselves is nothing but generational theft. It’s immoral and possibly the most selfish act in human history. I’m ashamed that my generation and older generations have committed this criminal act of theft. Deficit spending today with no intention of repaying that debt is a tax on future generations. This egotistical abuse of power by the current and past regimes must be reversed voluntarily or it will be done by force. I’m 50 years old and will dedicating my remaining time on this earth fighting to create a sustainable future for my kids and their kids. The lucky among us get eighty years on this planet to make a difference. When did the definition of success become dying with the most toys and spending your life screwing your fellow man by accumulating obscene levels of wealth at their expense? If Boomers and Generation X have any sense of guilt about what they have done, they would be willingly offering to sacrifice their ill-gotten entitlements.

Not only are those currently in power not proposing to scale back their spending, debt accumulation, or entitlement transfers, but they have accelerated the pace of each in the last five years. An already unsustainable corrupted economic structure is being driven towards collapse by psychopathic central bankers and cowardly captured politicians. These are acts of treason against the youth of this country and larceny on a grand scale. It will lead to generational warfare and these crooks will pay for their transgressions. Strauss & Howe suspected in 1997 the elders might cling to their illicit profits acquired at the expense of the Millennials:

“When young adults encounter leaders who cling to the old regime (and who keep propping up senior benefit programs that will by then be busting the budget), they will not tune out, 13er – style. Instead, they will get busy working to defeat or overcome their adversaries. Their success will lead some older critics to perceive real danger in a rising generation perceived as capable but naïve.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning

The elders who represent the status quo do perceive real danger in the rising Millennial generation. The initial skirmishes occurred in the midst of the Occupy protests. The young protestors initially focused on the true culprits in the crashing of the financial system and vaporizing of the net worth of millions – Wall Street bankers and their sugar daddy at the Federal Reserve. In a display of status quo bipartisanship you had liberal Democrat mayors in cities across the country call out their armed thugs to beat the millennial protestors into submission while being cheered on by Fox News and the neo-cons.

The existing status quo regime provides the illusion of choice, but both political parties are interchangeable in their desire to control our lives, flex our military might around the globe, indebt future generations and write laws to favor their corporate and banking masters. The establishment is showing contempt for the futures of our youth. Their solutions to the criminally created financial crisis have been to reward reckless debtors and bankers at the expense of future generations. Their doling out of hundreds of billions in student loan debt and artificial propping up of home prices has effectively made it impossible for millions of young people to get their lives started. Boomers have done such a poor job saving for their retirements they are unable to leave the workforce. Since January 2009, despite adding $400 billion of student loan debt, Millennials have a net loss in jobs, while the Boomers have taken 4 million jobs.

Strauss & Howe anticipated that older people would be anguished to see good kids suffer for the mistakes they had made. They thought the elders couldn’t possibly be shallow enough, selfish enough, or immoral enough to deny the Millennial generation a chance at the American Dream. They were wrong. The old regime has no plans to step aside or sacrifice on behalf of younger generations. The implications of this resistance will be dire.   

“The youthful hunger for social discipline and centralized authority could lead Millennial youth brigades to lend mass to dangerous demagogues. The risk of class warfare will be especially grave if the 20% of Millennials who were poor as children (50% in inner cities) come of age seeing their peer-bonded paths to generational progress blocked by elder inertia.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning

The social mood in this country continues to deteriorate as the sociopathic financial elite accelerate their pillaging of the working middle class, steal money from senior citizens through zero interest rate inflationary policies, and enslave our youth in the chains of crushing debt and promise of dead end jobs. When the next leg down in this ongoing depression strikes like an F5 tornado, the simmering anger in this country will explode in a chaotic frenzy of violence and retribution. The chances of class and generational warfare have increased exponentially due to the actions of the elderly regime over the last five years.

Generational Sacrifice

You got your whole life ahead of you, but for me, I finish things.” – Walt Kowalski – Gran Torino   

  

A couple days after the Spring concert I was flipping through the 650 channels on my TV with nothing worth watching when I stumbled across the 2008 Clint Eastwood movie Gran Torino. This was the third episode within the week that had me thinking about the future of my kids. It was his highest grossing film in history. Eastwood played a bigoted tough guy Korean War veteran whose Detroit suburban neighborhood had deteriorated into a dangerous gang infested Asian war zone. The movie did not follow the standard Eastwood plot where he kills dozens of bad guys. He grudgingly befriends two young Millennial teenage Laos refugees who live next door. He had lost his wife of 50 years. He was in his 70s and dying from some undiagnosed illness. I viewed the movie as an allegory for the generational sacrifice that should be taking place now.

Eastwood’s character, Walt Kowlaski, decided to finish things his way. He realized the two Millennials would never find peace or have a chance at a better life until the criminal gang running the show in the neighborhood were confronted and defeated. He knew he was too old to kill six gang members singlehandedly, so he made a choice to sacrifice himself and be gunned down in cold blood in front of multiple witnesses so the perpetrators would go to jail and allow his Millennial companions to have a chance at a better life. He sacrificed his life for the good of young people who weren’t even related to him.  This message has not connected with the elder generations who control the purse strings and political system in this country. The media propaganda machine supporting the existing regime continues to peddle a storyline that debt doesn’t matter, consumption is good, saving is for suckers, and passing the bill for unfunded entitlements to future generations is not immoral and cowardly. Walt Kowalski displayed courage, bravery, and valor that is sorely lacking in the elderly generations today.

At the age of 50 I have a choice with my remaining 20 or 30 years. I can choose to keep accumulating material goods with debt, voting for politicians who promise never to cut my entitlements, believing deficits growing to infinity are beneficial to the economic health of the nation, supporting the military industrial complex as they wage undeclared wars across the world, applauding the Orwellian fascist surveillance measures instituted to give the illusion of safety while sacrificing freedoms and liberties and selfishly looking out for my best interests. Or I can stand up to the corporate fascist old boy regime and lure them into a violent response that will ultimately lead to their downfall. I’m willing to sacrifice what is supposedly “owed” to me on behalf of my kids and all Millennials. They don’t deserve to start life in a $200 trillion hole created by their parents and grandparents. It is disconcerting to me that more Boomer and Generation X parents are unprepared, unwilling or too willfully ignorant to forfeit entitlements awarded them under false pretenses in order to preserve a decent standard of living for their children and grandchildren. The Bernaysian propaganda programmed into their brains over decades by the sociopathic central planning status quo has created this inertia.

The inertia will be replaced by frenzied activity when this unsustainable system ultimately fails. Time seems to be standing still. People have been lulled into a false sense of security even though history is about to fling us into a chaotic transformational period in history. How do I know this is going to happen? Because it happens every eighty years like clockwork. The best laid plans of the men running the show will be swept away in a whirl of pandemonium, violence, war and reckoning for sins committed against humanity. There will be no escape.     

“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance. The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning

Our country has entered a period of Crisis. We may or may not successfully navigate our way through the visible icebergs and more dangerous icebergs just below the surface. The similarities between the course of our country and the maiden voyage of the Titanic are eerily allegorical.

The owners of the ship (Wall Street, Washington politicians, crony capitalists) are arrogant and reckless. They declare the ship unsinkable, while only providing half the lifeboats needed to save all the passengers in case of disaster in order to maximize their profits. The captain (Ben Bernanke) has been tendered the greatest cruise liner (United States) in history. The initial voyage across the Atlantic Ocean has drawn the financial elite ruling class (financers & bankers) onboard, occupying the luxurious state rooms on the upper decks. But, the lower decks are filled with young poor peasants (Millennials) who are sneered at and ridiculed by those in the upper decks. A maiden voyage should always be approached cautiously. A prudent captain would not take undue risks.

Our captain (Ben Bernanke) wants to make his mark on history. He considers himself an expert in navigating dangerous waters (Great Depression) because he studied dangerous waters at his Ivy League school. It doesn’t matter that he never actually captained a ship in the real world.  He declares full steam ahead (reducing interest rates to 0% and throwing vast amounts of fiat currency into the engine room boilers). Midway through the voyage, the captain is handed a telegram warning of icebergs (potential financial catastrophe) ahead. If he slows down the vessel, he will not set the speed record and receive the accolades of an adoring public. He ignores the warning and steams on to his rendezvous (eternal disgrace) with destiny.

In the middle of the night, the lookouts (Ron Paul, John Hussman, Zero Hedge) cry iceberg!! But, it is too late. The great ship (United States) has struck an enormous iceberg (debt & currency crisis). At first, it seems like everything will be OK. The captain and crew assure the passengers that everything is under control and their evasive action has saved the ship. But below the waterline, the great ship (United States) is taking on water (toxic levels of debt, un-payable entitlement promises, trillion dollar deficits, political & financial corruption). The engine room (Federal Reserve) works frantically to alleviate the damage (QE to infinity). The captain is sure the compartmentalization of the ship will save it. One of the designers of the ship (David Stockman) sadly declares that the ship will surely sink. The captain orders the band (CNBC, Fox, MSNBC, CNN) on deck to distract the passengers from their impending fate with soothing music. The owners of the ship (Wall Street, Washington politicians, crony capitalists) aren’t worried. They collected their fees upfront and over-insured the vessel. They anticipate a windfall when the ship sinks. It worked last time.

To avoid mass panic, the crew (government apparatchiks) has locked the youthful poor peasants (Millennials) below deck. The captain and his crew are content to let them go down with the ship. They’ve decided the women, children, and senior citizens (Middle Class) can also be sacrificed. The financial elite ruling class (financers and bankers) are piling into the boats with the ship’s jewels, escaping the fate of the peasants. The captain (Ben Bernanke) has no intention of going down with the ship. In a cowardly act, he leaps onto the 1st lifeboat to be launched. We are on a voyage of the damned. The great cruise liner (United States) has a fatal wound and is headed for a watery grave. Are we going to let the owners, captain and crew dictate who will be saved in the few lifeboats or will we rise up and throw these guilty parties overboard?

 

It comes down to the abuse of power by a few evil men and their henchmen as they have centralized their control over our financial, political, economic and social institutions. The existing social order is an ancient, rotting, fetid swamp of parasites that will be drained during this Fourth Turning. The Millennials are rising and will be the spearhead of the coming revolution. As each day passes they will become a more powerful force and the power of the existing regime will wane. Meanwhile, the band will play on as the ship of state descends into the abyss.

THE GREAT FRACKING FRAUD

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Posted on 3rd April 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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I love when the MSM storyline is OBLITERATED by the alternate truth telling media. The MSM cares nothing about facts. Their job is to sedate the masses with propaganda, like the storyline about 100 years of oil under our feet. They peddle the bullshit storyline about the U.S. becoming an oil exporter in the next 5 years when we currently import 10 million barrels per day. Every drop of oil and every cubic foot of gas is accessible at a certain price. One problem. Once the price reaches a certain level, our economy collapses. So Solly.

Those in power know the true situation. They and their MSM mouthpieces are lying to the American people because they have no solution to decreasing supplies and higher prices. But you now know why we refuse to leave the Middle East and are now very interested in Africa.

Read the part in the article about the Bakken oil fields and how quickly they deplete. If we are swimming in Bakken oil and our consumption is going down, why is oil selling for $96 a barrel?

The Myth Of U.S. Energy Independence

Submitted by Alan von Altendorf,

Let’s begin with the Federal Reserve. Adding $1 trillion a year to its balance sheet sounds like big money. The Congressional Budget Office recently projected an $845 billion federal deficit in 2013. States and localities will likewise disburse more than they take in taxes — so altogether let’s say it adds up to $2+ trillion of fiscal and monetary stimulus, to prop up asset values and hopefully inspire U.S. households to borrow more and spend more. Good news for investors, right?

The fly in the ointment is energy. Global oil supply has plateaued and more demand will push up prices. Americans always think of themselves first, but we’re not alone in consumption of energy. China, Japan, Korea, India, the EU, and exporters like Saudi Arabia and Russia are consumers, too. Last week Britain came within days of running out of natural gas until three LNG supertankers arrived from Qatar. Those cargoes were held, waiting to see who would pay the highest price. It was freezing cold in Britain, a pipeline from Belgium went down, and the Brits bid 30% above market for the LNG cargoes to stave off power blackouts, misery and death. Price was no object. They had to have emergency supplies and it’s a seller’s market.

That’s the ugly truth about oil & gas, flat supply and high demand.

Oil inventories in particular are extremely tight. Spare production and market rigging are easily disproved. It’s a competitive global market with thousands of brokers, shippers, production operators and service companies. OPEC quotas don’t mean squat. Everyone is pumping as much as they can.

 

Oil matters first, most, and always because it powers 95% of U.S. transportation. Farm to market. Bunker fuel. Passenger cars. Jet aircraft. Heavy equipment for construction and mining. Asphalt for roads. Lubricants that every machine, every pump, everything with wheels has to have, including a commercial fleet of 350,000 big rigs and 25,000 diesel locomotives. Oil is our industrial lifeblood.

Are you thinking about natural gas? Good. Much of it came from oil fields. It got separated at the platform and piped away as a byproduct of oil production. There are numerous conventional gas fields in Texas, Louisiana, and the Outer Continental Shelf, all of them historically owned and operated and bankrolled by oil companies. Oil paid the freight for gas development.

Of the top 10 U.S. gas producers, oil companies currently deliver 12 Tcf a year, compared to 8 Tcf from big shale frackers. And there’s a dirty secret about shale gas that no one wants to discuss. Bankruptcy. Horizontal fracking for dry gas is a money-losing business. Huge sums were invested in 2008 when gas was north of $10 mmbtu. At the time no one bothered to calculate the “full cycle” cost of drilling and fracturing thousands of pricey horizontal wells.

 

Throughout 2009 and 2010, shale drillers played hide the sausage with hedge contracts, until their bankers and investors saw an ocean of red ink operations. Petrohawk lost $1 billion and needed a particularly dumb white knight to rescue it, which ultimately cost BHP’s CEO Marius Kloppers his job. I covered the BHP-Petrohawk acquisition when it was announced (link) with a follow-up (link). If you examine any of the shale drillers’ financials, like Chesapeake, you’ll find the same green eyeshade heroics of hedging to cover operating losses in 2009-10.

My theory is that they kept drilling to impress unsophisticated investors and stay busy while praying prices would come back. Lets assume they were well hedged at $10/mcf. It still costs them $8/mcf to find and produce that gas, so with the spot price at $4, they are losing $4/mcf. However, they are making $6/mcf on their hedge, for a net of $2/mcf. So basically you have an extremely unprofitable gas company, tied to a very profitable trading / hedging operation. They should have cut their losses on the drilling and cashed in their hedges at $6/mcf… [but] eliminating drilling means cutting staff, so they kept going, even though it was foolish and they ended up destroying a lot of shareholder wealth. [Oil Drum comment]

Two years ago drilling cratered, except to hold acreage by production, and dry gas shale operators started offloading property to foreign investors who liked the idea of bagging hard currency mineral rights. China didn’t care if shale gas was a broken business model. It wanted the technology.

Chart adapted from Berman and Pettinger (2010)

Exxon’s purpose in acquiring shale driller XTO was to book reserves, not profits. “We are all losing our shirts,” Rex Tillerson told the Council on Foreign Relations last June. “We’re making no money [from gas production]. It’s all in the red.” Reserves replacement is a life or death problem for the oil majors. A quirk of accounting rules allow them to comingle assets and pretend that 6 mcf of proved gas reserves worth $20 at the wellhead = $100 barrel of Louisiana Light. As long as they don’t have to produce any of that unprofitable gas, it looks good on the balance sheet.

What’s happening at the majors is capitulation. Conventional gas production has been deliberately allowed to decline because there’s no money in it. But smaller shale players are stuck. They have to keep producing to service their mountain of debt, pay dividends, and pay themselves fat salaries. The next two charts tell a ghastly story. Conventional gas is down, money-losing shale production up.

 

 

Energy maven Michael Fitzsimmons recently wrote that “supply and demand are coming back into alignment. In addition to substantial growth in the electrical generation sector, natural gas is also making significant progress in the transportation sector.” [link] He expects a breakout to $5/mcf, once excess underground strorage is drawn down. Maybe so. But shale drillers need $8/mcf to break even, and the majors aren’t going to spend another dime drilling for conventional gas. Which brings us to Sean Hannity’s pie-in-the-sky reserves.

Mr. Hannity thinks shale gas is an inexhaustible resource.

With a steady supply of gas we’d be able to put people back to work… Environmentalists are unable to see that natural gas is not only more accessible, but more affordable. If America taps into its assets, we could become the world’s leading exporter of natural gas.

[Hannity nationally sydicated radio broadcast 3/12/13]

Assuming that the spot price for gas moves north of $6 it’s possible to see some more production. But how much, for how long? Forever? 100 years? — or less than only a dozen years, during which prices will have to gap higher as various consumers bid for increasingly scarce gas?

 

 

The U.S. does not have 100 years of natural gas supply. There is a difference between resources and reserves that many outside the energy industry fail to grasp… The Potential Gas Committee is the standard for resource assessments because of the objectivity and credentials of its members, and its long and reliable history. In its 2011 biennial report, three categories of technically recoverable resources are identified: probable, possible, and speculative. The President and many others have taken the P.G.C. total of all three categories (2,170 Tcf) and divided by 2010 annual consumption of 24 Tcf. Much of this total resource is in accumulations too small to be produced at any price, is inaccessible to drilling, or too deep to recover economically. More relevant is the Committee’s probable mean resources value of 550 Tcf of gas. [Berman, Feb 2012]

 

click to enlarge)

The future of natural gas is a long-term shortfall and significantly higher prices to bring production back.

I have long been puzzled by the economics of shale gas. I was never involved in shale, but was involved in drilling exploration wells in the Permian Basin. We stopped drilling for pure gas wells in 2009. We had a ten well project leased and ready to go when gas prices started collapsing. Our breakeven price was about $7/mcf, and $8 gave us a respectable profit. We drilled the first well, but put the rest on the shelf.

[B.J. Doyle]

The Bakken Bust

Another one of Sean Hannity’s brainless rants had listeners leaping for joy, because exponential fracking for oil in North Dakota, Montana, and the Texas Eagle Ford can produce an endless cornucopia of abundant, cheap U.S. gasoline, if we get those pesky environmentalists out of the way! America has so much shale oil that we could be the world’s Number One oil producer and exporter! Never have to import another barrel of oil from the Middle East!

Okay. Reality check.

Whereas conventional wells like those in the Thunder Horse (deepwater Gulf of Mexico sandstone) reservoir produce at a rate of 40,000 bpd, only 14 of the nearly 9,000 wells in the Bakken produce more than 800 barrels per day, and the average well produces only 52 bpd.

[Derik Andreoli, 12/12/11]

 

(click to enlarge)

Presently the estimated breakeven price for the average well in the Bakken formation in North Dakota is $80-$90/bbl. In plain language this means that presently the commercial profitability for new wells is barely positive. The average well now yields around 85 000 bbls during the first 12 months of production and then experiences a year over year decline of 40%. The recent trend for newer wells is one of a perceptible decline in well productivity.

[Rune Likvern, 1/1/13]

 

While production continues to ramp up daily, there is one part of western North Dakota where the excitement of oil has gone bust. Chesapeake’s attempt to find the southern edge of the Bakken is being described as the largest failure in drilling in the state since the 1980s…Tanks are there, collecting nothing. Well heads are in place, abandoned… Director of Mineral Resources for North Dakota, Lynn Helms said: ‘There’s only one well that’s made any measurable oil, and it’s about 10 percent oil at best, 90% water.’ Chesapeake invested $60 million in the prospect of hitting oil. That excludes money spent on leases. ‘Because all the drilling had been taking place north of there and the geological risk was zero, it made it look too easy. So in terms of the technology of drilling and fracking, well prepared, but in terms of geology probably not,’ said Helms.

[KXNet.com, 1/1/13]

 

With 55 to 85% yearly decline rates how are those investors going to look in five years; especially in places like the Bakken which have $10 million wells. Eagle Ford has dismal production (143 b/d)…Chesapeake got into the shale gas game early, and is now selling everything the company has to stay out of receivership. Decline rates were much higher than originally projected. The rest of the shale industry will find the same thing happening to them.

[TOD, 2/10/13]

 

(click to enlarge)

The government is going to be pretty damned disappointed and upset if unconventional oil turns out to be a colossal bust. And there is something funny about that EIA chart (above). Ignore the big purple blob of Tight Lower 48 and look closely at the black line and right hand scale. EIA thinks crude is going to $160 a barrel. No wonder DOE policy wonks expect shale drillers to poke around forever in marginal plays. 90% water cut sounds ok all of a sudden at $160 a barrel.

With Bernanke printing free money for the foreseeable future, and incredibly low HY rates of 5-6%, any wacky business plan is good to go, assuming that drilling contractors and completion companies don’t go bankrupt with Obamacare. I also doubt their ability to keep costs down in the future. Each horizontal completion needs 1 million gallons of fresh water and someplace to get rid of it after contamination by radioactive, poisonous and corrosive formation chemicals. But broadly speaking, cheap HY funding rocket fueled the shale boom, and in the near term I expect another round of free drinks on the Fed’s tab for North Dakota’s roughnecks. Yee-haw!

Former Kansas City Fed president and vice chairman of the FDIC, Thomas M. Hoenig, isn’t having any of it. “This system [of pumping liquidity into money center banks] distorts the market and turns appropriate risk-taking into recklessness,” he warned in a WaPo op-ed last Friday.

Well, duh. Obama is throwing billions at solar and biofuels. Recklessness is the order of the day, all day, every day, to make America “energy independent” and to save the planet, of course.

The U.S Department of Defense is the world’s largest consumer of refined petroleum — gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel — for which it pays about $3.00 a gallon because it buys tens of millions of gallons at a whack. But DoD is under tremendous pressure to “go green” and switch to biofuels. Here’s the price per gallon the Pentagon paid for algae, wax and peanut oil fuel. And they had a clear winner! Fat and sugar were a bargain at slightly over $25 a gallon.

 

Death By Regulation

I’m a very old fashioned, simple analyst. I look at the geology, the balance sheet, and the company management. One of Houston’s best is W&T Offshore (WTI) — and it’s a heartbreaker. Currently trading at a $14 handle, if you do the math on shareholder equity and common shares outstanding, it might be worth $7.

Let me repeat, so there’s no misunderstanding. W&T Offshore is a superb small company, with the right stuff subsurface and a terrific management team. Absolutely first class offshore operator. Very high rate of success. (Disclosure: No position long or short in WTI and no business relationship past or present with the company or any of its employees or managers.)

No question about WTI’s integrity. Reserves are audited by Netherland Sewell. If ever there was a minnow that deserved investor loyalty and a blank check to grow the business, it’s W&T Offshore. But I can’t recommend it as a buy, and it breaks my heart to say sell.

The succubus that’s draining WTI financially is regulation. The latest 10-K calmly explains why this excellent oil finder is hanging on by a thread. If you want to understand why U.S. conventional oil production is trending downward, year after year, this is why:

BOEM [Dept of Interior] may require any of our operations on federal leases to be suspended or terminated… Numerous governmental departments issue rules and regulations to implement and enforce such laws, which are often difficult and costly to comply with and which carry substantial civil and even criminal penalties for failure to comply… Environmental laws and regulations have been subject to frequent changes over the years, and the imposition of more stringent requirements could have a material adverse effect upon our capital expenditures, earnings or competitive position, including the suspension or cessation of operations in affected areas… The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act imposes liability, without regard to fault, on certain classes of persons that are considered to be responsible for the release of a “hazardous substance” into the environment… In addition, companies that incur liability frequently also confront third-party claims because it is not uncommon for neighboring landowners and other third parties to file claims for personal injury and property damage allegedly caused by hazardous substances or other pollutants released into the environment from a polluted site.

Just boilerplate? Not in WTI’s case.

The United States Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Louisiana, along with the Criminal Investigation Division of the EPA conducted a federal grand jury investigation beginning in late 2010 of environmental compliance matters relating to surface discharges and reporting on four of our offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico in 2009… Cameron Parish landowners filed suits in the 38th Judicial District Court against the Company and several other defendants unrelated to us… alleged that property they own has been contaminated or otherwise damaged by the defendants’ oil and gas exploration and production activities… During 2012, we settled claims with certain landowners and paid $10.0 million. We assessed the remaining claims to be probable and have accrued $1.3 million in our contingent liabilities… we cannot state with certainty that our estimates of additional exposure are accurate concerning this matter. On September 21, 2012, we were served with a complaint in a qui tam action filed under the federal False Claims Act by an employee of a Company contractor… A qui tam action is a lawsuit brought by a private citizen seeking civil penalties or damages against a person or company on behalf of the government for alleged violations of law. If the claims are successful, the person filing the suit may recover a percentage of the damages or penalty from the lawsuit as a reward for exposing a wrongdoing… The alleged environmental violations include allegations of discharges of relatively small amounts of oil… the same allegations involved in the federal grand jury investigation.

Anyone killed or injured? No. An oil slick? No. A few barrels spilled and a forgotten journal entry. If you’ve seen a video of an offshore drilling crew at work, it’s miraculous that a handful of men control hundreds of barrels of drilling mud and produced water, volatile poison gases that have to be flared or connected to an undersea pipeline, and thousands of barrels of flowing crude without spilling a drop.

A good company ruined — because a contractor blabbed to the Feds, knowing that it would pay him a fat “whistlebower” reward and civil suits would pay landowners miles away, without proof of damage to their land. Ready for full context? Natural seeps in the Gulf of Mexico spew 500,000 barrels of gooey oil and sticky tar, each and every year. Has absolutely nothing to do with WTI’s offshore operations.

 

(click to enlarge)

There is no hope whatsoever of so-called U.S. “energy indepedence” unless three things happen. Environmental rules have to be wound back to 1970 standards — in other words, disband the EPA and make civil plaintiffs show actual harm, not just hypothetical harm because someone goofed on a sheaf of mandated paperwork. Second, stop wasting taxpayer money on nonsense like $25 per gallon biofuel.

Third and most urgently, stop subsidizing Wall Street. Let the market decide what interest rates make sense, rewarding companies who can find and produce oil, instead of gorging themselves sick on artificially cheap junk bonds that money-losing shale swindlers will never pay off.

Everything the Fed does ultimately leads to less economic activity, less savings and more debt resulting in poverty for Americans, not prosperity.

[Zero Hedge]

RELIEF AT THE PUMP?

13 comments

Posted on 8th November 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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 There are lots of things that stick in my craw and one of them is when I hear the numbskulls and dimwits in the MSM blather on about relief at the pump when gas prices drop a few cents over a couple week period. They tout this as proof that the consumer will soon have gobs of discretionary dollars to start buying more igadgets. I don’t know about you, but I need to fill my gas tank up every damn week. Gas prices rise and gas prices fall, but the only thing that matters is the average price you pay from year to year. Below is a chart that details the average monthly price for a gallon of regular gas going back to 1990. Think about this chart when Bernanke tells you inflation is well contained. You might notice that you were paying an average price of $1.42 per gallon from 2000 through 2002. Then our friend Bush decided to make the world safe for democracy. Well done Georgie.

Now let’s deal with reality. The average price over the last few years has been:

2006 – $2.57

2007 – $2.80

2008 – $3.25

2009 – $2.34

2010 – $2.78

2011 – $3.52

2012 – $3.67

So enough with the bullshit. We have paid the highest average price in the history of the country for a gallon of gas in 2012. The previous highest average price in history was last year. These prices are much higher than 2008 when oil spiked to $140 per barrel. Now put on your thinking caps. Our gasoline usage has dropped significantly since 2007, but we are paying 31% more for a gallon of gas. We were paying under $1.00 per gallon in 1999. I’d like all the peak oil deniers to explain the 267% increase in gas prices since 1999.

We know for a fact that real median household income has fallen by $4,000 since 2007. If the average household drives 20,000 miles per year and gets 25 mpg from their vehicles, then they are buying 800 gallons of gas per year. These households are paying $1,000 more per year than they did in 2009. They are paying $1,800 more per year than they were in 2002, before we began our never ending wars in the Middle East.

The moronic pundits and shill economists can’t seem to understand why the economy continues to suck and the middle class is slowly and methodically being wiped out. It may have something to do with the combo of declining income and the highest energy costs in history.

U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)
 
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  1990               1.218 1.258 1.335 1.324 1.341
  1991 1.180 1.094 1.040 1.076 1.126 1.128 1.096 1.115 1.109 1.088 1.099 1.076
  1992 1.022 1.006 1.013 1.052 1.107 1.145 1.137 1.122 1.122 1.114 1.111 1.078
  1993 1.062 1.054 1.052 1.078 1.100 1.097 1.078 1.062 1.050 1.092 1.066 1.014
  1994 0.998 1.009 1.008 1.027 1.047 1.078 1.106 1.155 1.144 1.114 1.116 1.091
 
  1995 1.082 1.073 1.072 1.111 1.178 1.192 1.154 1.123 1.111 1.087 1.062 1.071
  1996 1.090 1.089 1.137 1.231 1.279 1.256 1.227 1.207 1.202 1.204 1.232 1.235
  1997 1.236 1.230 1.205 1.199 1.200 1.198 1.174 1.224 1.231 1.197 1.171 1.131
  1998 1.086 1.049 1.017 1.030 1.064 1.064 1.055 1.026 1.009 1.019 0.995 0.945
  1999 0.939 0.921 0.982 1.131 1.131 1.114 1.158 1.221 1.256 1.244 1.251 1.273
 
  2000 1.289 1.377 1.516 1.465 1.487 1.633 1.551 1.465 1.550 1.532 1.517 1.443
  2001 1.447 1.450 1.409 1.552 1.702 1.616 1.421 1.421 1.522 1.315 1.171 1.086
  2002 1.107 1.114 1.249 1.397 1.392 1.382 1.397 1.396 1.400 1.445 1.419 1.386
  2003 1.458 1.613 1.693 1.589 1.497 1.493 1.513 1.620 1.679 1.564 1.512 1.479
  2004 1.572 1.648 1.736 1.798 1.983 1.969 1.911 1.878 1.870 2.000 1.979 1.841
 
  2005 1.831 1.910 2.079 2.243 2.161 2.156 2.290 2.486 2.903 2.717 2.257 2.185
  2006 2.316 2.280 2.425 2.742 2.907 2.885 2.981 2.952 2.555 2.245 2.229 2.313
  2007 2.240 2.278 2.563 2.845 3.146 3.056 2.965 2.786 2.803 2.803 3.080 3.018
  2008 3.043 3.028 3.244 3.458 3.766 4.054 4.062 3.779 3.703 3.051 2.147 1.687
  2009 1.788 1.923 1.959 2.049 2.266 2.631 2.527 2.616 2.554 2.551 2.651 2.607
 
  2010 2.715 2.644 2.772 2.848 2.836 2.732 2.729 2.730 2.705 2.801 2.859 2.993
  2011 3.095 3.211 3.561 3.800 3.906 3.680 3.650 3.639 3.611 3.448 3.384 3.266
  2012 3.380 3.579 3.852 3.900 3.732 3.539 3.439 3.722 3.849 3.746    

CHICKEN OR EGG?

10 comments

Posted on 21st September 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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High oil prices cause higher food and energy costs in Middle East countries. Middle East unrest causes higher oil prices. Higher oil prices causes recessions in the U.S. Recessions in the U.S. cause oil prices to drop. Recessions cause more unrest in the world. More unrest in the world causes higher oil prices. Rinse and repeat.

Today’s chart provides some long-term perspective in regards to gasoline prices by presenting the inflation-adjusted US price of one gallon of gasoline since 1980. There are a couple points of interest from today’s chart. For one, Middle East crises are often associated with major swings in the price of gasoline. Also, gasoline price spikes have often occurred prior to an economic downturn. Both those issues are in play today. Middle East instability (e.g. Arab spring) and Middle East tensions (e.g. Iran) are ongoing. Also, the inflation-adjusted US price for a gallon of unleaded is up over $0.50 since the end of June and has rarely been higher than current levels.

 

Chart of the Day

SYRIA, IRAN, ISRAEL, TURKEY, QATAR, SAUDI ARABIA, RUSSIA & YOU

33 comments

Posted on 18th July 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Interesting discussion from Bruce Krasting and his contact. The worse our economy gets, the more likely that Obama pushes forth with a foreign conflict to distract the ignorant masses. There is also the possibility that any single player in this game of international chess does something stupid. And then all hell breaks loose. Timing is everything. The Iranians are being squeezed by sanctions. Will they lash out when desperation sets in? What would happen next? Nothing good, for sure.

Words of War

 
Bruce Krasting's picture

Submitted by Bruce Krastingon 07/17/2012 14:42 -0400

I had an interesting conversation with a fellow who lives in Europe and has been connected to the spook world in the past. (See this for prior discussions with him.) It went like this:

Paris

Have you been watching the events in Syria?

 

BK

Not really. I’m not sure what, if any, are the implications of this is.

 

Paris

You should. Things are moving faster and faster. For example, have you seen the level of fighting in the streets of Damascus the past few days?

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BK

No. It seems there is fighting every day.

 

Paris

There is now heavy fighting in the capital of Damascus. Clearly, the opposition has grown substantially for this to happen. It also means that the fighters are being armed. They would not take on a battle in the capital unless they were well armed.

 

BK

Interesting. Where are they getting these arms?

 

Paris

The same place that the Libyans got theirs, the Qataris and the Saudis.

 

BK

Ah! How do the Saudis and Qataris get arms into Syria?

 

Paris

Through Turkey, of course. You don’t think those Turkish jets got shot down by accident do you? This was the excuse for Erdogon (Turkish President) to get involved. Now he is.

 

BK

Why would Erdogon want to get involved in the Syrian mess?

 

Paris

He sees himself as a guardian of the Sunni. What we are witnessing is the re-emergence of the Ottoman Empire. What is happening is that Syria is in a civil war, but behind this is a religious war. Sunni versus Shia. The fighting today is in the streets of Syria, but in the end, this is a war between the Saudis and the Iranians.

 

BK Where’s this headed?

 

Paris

At this point, the USA is sharing any intelligence it has with all “friendly” interested parties, including the Turks, the Israelis, the Qataris and the Saudis. Given that all of these countries are also “leakers” of info, it is a safe bet that the Russians have the same info and are passing it along to the Iranians. It’s an equally safe bet the Iranians are very angry at this. In particular, they are pissed at the Qataris. And that gets us right back to the Straits of Hormuz.

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BK

Are you saying Iran might attack Qatar?

 

Paris

No, I wouldn’t think so. That would be suicide. The Americans have two aircraft carriers and a full fleet of other ships available to crush any aggression by Iran. But that is the point, all Iran needs do is threaten Qatar, and the price of crude shoots up. With it, would go insurance charges for the ships that ply those waters. A few well-placed mines would do the trick.

 

BK

Do you think it will play out like that?

 

Paris

The Iranians truly hate the Saudis, the Saudis hate the Iranians just as much. Today there is a new excuse to hate each other, Syria.

As to the odds, who knows? But I think that the odds are greater for something to happen to escalate what we are seeing today, versus a return to regional stability.

 

BK

Timing?

 

Paris

Impossible to say. Keep in mind that Obama and Hilary Clinton have effectively put Israel on a leash as far as Iran’s nukes are concerned until after the American election. The Iranians know this, and they understand that November is not so far away. The US does not have the Israelis tied up regarding matters in Syria.

I don’t see how “they” can put a lid on all of this. There are too many moving parts. Do the Iranians have an interest in stirring up a hornet’s nest before November? Sure they do. It could be a matter of weeks.

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Note:

Qatar produces (only) 1.3m barrels of crude a day. However, they are the largest producer of liquified natural gas (LNG) in the world. .

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