ALGERIA MATTERS BECAUSE……

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Posted on 17th January 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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How long before Obama puts our military on the ground in Algeria? The price of oil hit $96 per barrel today, up from $80 per barrel in June. The price of natural gas is up 40% in the last year. Guess who has the 17th largest oil reserves in the world, is the 15th largest oil producer, and the 10th largest natural gas producer in the world?

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=AG&trk=p1

We will now be sold a story about Al Queda terrorist cells and the imminent danger to our nation unless we do something to help the poor Algerians. The fact is they have over 12 billion barrels of oil under their country and we want to control it. I’m sure we’ll fuck this up too. Before we invaded Iraq, the price of oil was $25 per barrel. I wonder what the price will be after we make a complete clusterfuck out of Algeria. It will be really embarassing when we lose to these guys.

Malgeria Crisis Update

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durdenon 01/17/2013 12:00 -0500

The situation in MalgeriaTM continues to remain uncertain but the following updates should provide some color as to where they stand currently (and a primer on the initial French intervention). Critically, Stratfor warns that the escalation in Algeria will possibly lead to further militants crossing the Mali border, further endangering Westerners and energy infrastructure (which is important as Algeria is one of the largest exports of light, sweet crude oil in the world and a significant natural gas exporter to Europe).

 

Stratfor 3-minute Primer:

 

Update:

1) In general there is chaos as FranceTV put it “it is very confusing, with no official confirmation of any of the actions being reported on”

 

 

2) Up to 35 (of the 44) Hostages have apparently been killed in the Algerian rescue (retake) operation, with hostages freed (one Irishman);
2a) All 8 of the hostage-takers have apparently been killed

Who is Mokhtar Belmokhtar?

 

3) A US Drone is now on site to take a look for the first time;

4) The UK’s Cameron was not informed before the Algerian operation (and wanted to be consulted);

5) Stratfor’s concern is that Algeria’s action will bring more militants across the border and threaten more Westerners and energy production

 
 

There are hundreds of smaller oil and gas fields in between, to the west of In Amenas and around the central desert region surrounding In Salah. Algeria lacks the capacity to provide a robust security presence for all of these sites, nor can it afford to suspend operations given the aggressive oil and gas production expansions planned for 2013. Algeria cannot maintain a permanent security presence at every production site across its territory, but as evidenced by the Jan.16 attack, they are capable of quickly organizing regional security forces at sites of unrest.

 

6) BP is pulling all non-essential staff out

THE FREE MARKET WORKS IF YOU LET IT

12 comments

Posted on 26th November 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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If we can keep the government out of the picture and the do-gooders who think they can dictate what people and markets should do, the free market will make rational decisions based on economic interest. The U.S. is currently overflowing with natural gas due to the fracking boom. Prices are very low. They are much lower than the prices for oil. Trucking companies, municipalites, and bus companies are doing cost benefit analysis and deciding to switch their fleets to natural gas. They are doing it because the ROI is good. They aren’t doing it because Big Brother told them to do it. They are doing it because it is a good economic decision.

Essentially, this is what T Boone Pickens proposed a few years ago. It is easier to set up the infrastructure for fleets of trucks, buses and municipal vehicles. You don’t require a massive buildout of refueling locations. Pickens wanted to add in wind power as a way to power factories, while freeing up more natural gas for transportation. Problems with connecting to the electrical grid have stopped the wind idea cold. I do believe converting all of the truck fleets in the country to natural gas would be a smart thing to do over the long-term. It won’t solve our energy problem, but it would delay the painful decline for a few more years.

But, this is the United States of Obama. His minions will interfere and try to control this transition to natural gas. They will drive prices up and make it uneconomical. Then they will provide tax credits with your money to do something stupid. Book it. 

Natural gas drillers target US truck, bus market

Associated Press

SCRANTON, Pa. — If the trash truck or bus rolling down your street seems a little quieter these days, you’re not imagining things. It’s probably running on natural gas.

Surging gas production has led the drilling industry to seek out new markets for its product, and energy companies, increasingly, are setting their sights on the transportation sector.

Touting natural gas as a cheaper, cleaner-burning alternative to gasoline and diesel, drillers, public utilities and government officials are trying to boost demand for natural gas buses, taxis, shuttles, delivery trucks and heavy-duty work vehicles of all sorts, while simultaneously encouraging development of the fueling infrastructure that will be needed to keep them running.

The economics are compelling. Natural gas costs about $1.50 to $2 per gallon equivalent less than gasoline and diesel. That can add up to tens of thousands of dollars in savings for vehicles that guzzle the most fuel.

Fleet managers are taking notice. Companies as diverse as AT&T, Waste Management and UPS are converting all or parts of their fleets to natural gas, as are transit agencies, municipalities and state governments.

“Now that you can save a dollar or two dollars a gallon, there’s huge interest in the market, especially in those fleets that use a lot of fuel,” said Richard Kolodziej, president of the trade group Natural Gas Vehicles for America.

Waste Management, the nation’s largest trash hauler, has committed to replacing 80 percent of its fleet with trucks powered by natural gas. Rich Mogan, the company’s district manager in southwestern Pennsylvania, said about half of his fleet of 100 trucks now run on the cheaper fuel. They are quieter and less expensive to maintain, he said, and “we are looking at a 50 percent reduction in our (fuel) cost.”

Driller EQT Corp. opened its own natural gas filling station outside Pittsburgh in summer 2011, using it to refuel its trucks while also making it available to the public. It’s now doing about 1,000 fill-ups a month — and only half involve EQT vehicles. Other users include City of Pittsburgh trash trucks, shuttles run by the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, a taxi service and a handful of consumers.

EQT wasn’t sure how the station would be received.

“We didn’t have commitments at all beyond our own vehicles. It was really a guess of what we think we could do,” said David Ross, an EQT vice president focused on market development. “We had people who, at the beginning, said, ‘No, we’re not interested.’ Today they actually own a vehicle that’s natural gas. I think having the physical asset sitting there has helped it become real for people.”

Natural gas vehicles aren’t new. But the drilling boom, spurred by new technology that unlocked vast reserves of natural gas in deep rock formations like the Marcellus Shale underneath parts of New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio — created a gas glut that depressed prices. That, in turn, has made natural gas more attractive as a transportation fuel.

Partly because of a lack of fueling infrastructure, gas isn’t expected to grab significant market share from petroleum anytime soon. Only a tenth of 1 percent of the natural gas consumed in the Unites States last year was used as vehicle fuel, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Of more than 250 million vehicles on the road today, perhaps 125,000 are powered by natural gas.

But energy companies see potential.

Chesapeake Energy Corp., the nation’s No. 2 producer, has been especially aggressive about targeting transportation. The Oklahoma City-based driller invested $150 million in Clean Energy, a company backed by Texas investor T. Boone Pickens that’s building a nationwide network of liquefied natural gas refueling stations for long-haul truckers. Chesapeake also teamed up with General Electric on “CNG In A Box,” a compressed natural gas fueling system for retailers; announced a partnership with GE and Whirlpool to develop a $500 appliance that would allow consumers to refuel their natural gas-powered cars at home; and has been working with 3M to design less expensive tanks.

“It’s simply a matter of time before the U.S. meaningfully shifts from transportation systems built around consuming high-priced oil to consuming low-priced domestic natural gas,” Chesapeake CEO Aubrey McClendon wrote to investors this year.

States are also promoting natural gas as a transportation fuel. Nearly two dozen state governments have formed a consortium to add natural gas-powered vehicles to their fleets, an effort launched by the governors of Oklahoma and Colorado that attracted more than 100 bids from dealerships last month.

Separately, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection is dangling $20 million worth of incentives to goose the market for medium- and heavy-duty natural gas vehicles. The three-year program, which launches Dec. 1 and is funded by a state fee on drillers, aims at putting 600 to 700 new natural gas-powered trucks and buses on the road in its first year.

State officials also hope to use the grant program to spur a network of new filling stations. Pennsylvania has only 14 publicly available stations, and more places to fill up could help stoke consumer demand.

“The big prize here is to get consumers purchasing vehicles that run off natural gas,” said Geoff Bristow of the Pennsylvania DEP.

Industry officials, though, acknowledge that’s a long way off.

Conventional gasoline engines are becoming more efficient, and consumers might balk at spending more on a natural gas-powered car. Plus, the United States has less than 1,000 natural gas filling stations available to the public, compared with 160,000 gas stations.

The only factory-made, natural gas-powered passenger car available to U.S. consumers is the Honda Civic Natural Gas. While Honda expects sales to top 2,000 this year, that’s a fraction of the number of gasoline-powered Civics it moves in a single month.

Analyst Mike Omotoso of research firm LMC Automotive sees natural gas as a niche transportation fuel.

“There is very little interest in natural gas for cars,” Omotoso said. “People looking for alternatives are looking at hybrids and electric vehicles.”

For now, the gas industry is concentrating on heavy trucks and buses, vehicles that ply a regular route and return to the same base to fill up.

But both Kolodziej and Norman Herrera, Chesapeake’s director of market development, see a future where natural gas-powered cars and SUVs are commonplace and “you have a market like transit and trash, where all the pieces are in place and all the bottlenecks have been resolved,” Herrera said.

NUCLEAR POWER HAS A BAD CASE OF GAS

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Posted on 11th July 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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What  is it with these morons? When I was the Controller of the IKEA Real Estate division we built 9 new stores in 10 months. I produced the budgets for these projects with our construction and real estate teams. The total budget for these stores was $1 billion and the final costs totaled $990 million. How can these nuclear industry assholes have a $2.5 billion budget and come in at $4.5 billion? You’d think these projects were being run by ex-CIA agents and ex-US Air Force officers for Christ sakes. With these kind of cost overruns, these project managers are top candidates for Federal government jobs running Obamacare. With natural gas selling for less than $3, why would a utility company invest billions to build a nuclear plant rather than a natural gas powered plant? 

America’s New Nuclear Plants Cost Billions More Than Expected

ATLANTA (AP) — America’s first new nuclear plants in more than a decade are costing billions more to build and sometimes taking longer to deliver than planned, problems that could chill the industry’s hopes for a jumpstart to the nation’s new nuclear age.

Licensing delay charges, soaring construction expenses and installation glitches as mundane as misshapen metal bars have driven up the costs of three plants in Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina, from hundreds of millions to as much as $2 billion, according to an Associated Press analysis of public records and regulatory filings.

Those problems, along with jangled nerves from last year’s meltdown in Japan and the lure of cheap natural gas, could discourage utilities from sinking cash into new reactors, experts said. The building slowdown would be another blow to the so-called nuclear renaissance, a drive over the past decade to build 30 new reactors to meet the country’s growing power needs. Industry watchers now say that only a handful will be built this decade.

“People are looking at these things very carefully,” said Richard Lester, head of the department of nuclear science and engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Inexpensive gas alone, he said, “is casting a pretty long shadow over the prospects” for construction of new nuclear plants.

The AP’s review of pending projects found:

— Plant Vogtle in eastern Georgia, initially estimated to cost $14 billion, has run into over $800 million in extra charges related to licensing delays. A state monitor has said bluntly that co-owner Southern Co. can’t stick to its budget. The plant, whose first reactor was supposed to be operational by April 2016, is now delayed seven months.

— The long-mothballed Watts Bar power plant in eastern Tennessee, initially budgeted at $2.5 billion, will cost up to $2 billion more , the Tennessee Valley Authority concluded this spring. The utility said its initial budget underestimated how much work was needed to finish the plant and wasted money by not completing more design work before starting construction. The project had been targeted to finish in 2012, but has been postponed until 2015.

— Plant Summer in South Carolina, expected to cost around $10.5 billion, has seen costs jump by $670 million; but with lower interest rates and cheaper-than-expected labor; the owners assert the project is still on or under budget. A deadline to put the first new reactor online has been delayed from 2016 to 2017; the second reactor is now eight months ahead of schedule, targeted for early 2018.

Southern Co. and others in the nuclear business say cost overruns are expected in projects this complex, and that they are balanced out by other savings over the life of the plant. Southern Co. expects Plant Vogtle will cost $2 billion less to operate over its 60-year lifetime than initially projected because of anticipated tax breaks and historically low interest rates.

Regulators have been trying to make it easier to build, encouraging the use of off-the-shelf reactor designs that get approval in advance. New construction techniques are supposed to require less in-the-field assembly, making building quicker and reducing human error. Interest rates and labor costs have been down after a bruising recession.

“It’s a down environment economically,” said Steve Byrne, president of generation and transmission for SCANA’s South Carolina Electric & Gas Co., one of the utilities building Plant Summer’s reactors. “It’s terrible for the country, but it’s a great time to be building” a nuclear facility.

But the economy is also working against progress on new construction. The next company in line to build, Progress Energy, has pushed back construction plans for two reactors in Florida because of the economy, low demand and extremely cheap natural gas. It expects its first new reactor to be finished in 2024.

The plants burning natural gas are far cheaper to build than nuclear power plants. But utility executives say they need a diversified mix of power plants, including nuclear, because relying too heavily on a single fuel like natural gas backfires if prices go up.

The rising construction costs hit an industry already under financial pressure, after meltdowns last year at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant after a tsunami in Japan. NRG Energy wrote off a $481 million investment in two planned reactors in Texas shortly after the accident, citing uncertainties after the Japanese disaster. Other utilities still seeking to build have said they expect the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission will adopt new safety rules in response to the accident; they cannot predict the exact costs.

Industry leaders say the soaring costs could threaten projects that are worth the investment, and send the wrong message to the public.

“It’s important to get this project done right because if every time we build a nuclear plant we go substantially over budget, ratepayers will begin to believe we can’t do a nuclear project on budget,” said Tim Echols, a nuclear power proponent who chairs Georgia’s Public Service Commission.

An earlier push to expand the reach of nuclear power in the 1970s was thwarted by a number of obstacles: Electric companies overestimated demand and designed plants they didn’t need. They had trouble managing massive construction workforces. Utilities designed nuclear plants as they built, leading to mistakes and slowdowns. Interest rates skyrocketed and the 1979 meltdown at the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania forced plant operators to meet new rules at additional costs.

To win approval to build at Plant Vogtle, Southern Co. had to promise it would build its plant on budget, particularly as state officials remembered the massive cost overruns that occurred when it built the plant’s two existing reactors, said Robert Baker, a former utility regulator who has criticized the project.

The utility has been authorized to spend just over $6.1 billion as its share of the estimated $14 billion project, which was tracking under budget at the end of last year.

Southern Co. is about seven months behind schedule, mostly because of the federal approval process for the reactor, according to company executives and filings. Southern Co. also faced delays in getting an important license allowing it to start building the guts of the plant.

Another, less exotic problem at Vogtle: At one point, workers built metal bars straight rather than curved, as regulators had directed, so Southern Co. had to rip them out and replace them. Crews in South Carolina, watching the progress at Vogtle, have halted the construction of those bars.

Plant Vogtle’s designers and builders — Westinghouse Electric Co. and The Shaw Group Inc. — want Southern Co. to pay an additional $400 million for the licensing delays, according to a May report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Southern Co. subsidiary Georgia Power, which owns nearly half the new plant, denies responsibility for those costs and is negotiating on behalf of all the owners. Financial information divulged by three companies who own 98 percent of the project show $838 million in potential charges.

It is unclear how much this could cost the utility’s 2.4 million customers. Southern Co. earlier estimated typical residential customers would see a $10 increase in their monthly bills when both reactors are producing power in 2018. Utility regulators ultimately set the rates.

Similar issues have played out in central South Carolina, where SCANA Corp. and Santee Cooper won permission to build two reactors at Plant Summer, about 25 miles north of Columbia. SCANA agreed to pay $138 million in March to settle claims over licensing delays raised by the companies designing and building the reactor. Santee Cooper will pay nearly $113 million as its share of those costs, company officials said.

In May, SCANA asked utility regulators to raise its base spending on the project by $283 million, which includes the settlement related to licensing delays and extra costs for cyber security and staffing. However, the company said it will stay within its existing budget because it expects other expenses to be lower.

Supplying parts efficiently for the new reactors has also proved difficult. William Jacobs Jr., the state monitor hired by Georgia utility regulators, has publicly questioned whether a factory run by The Shaw Group can master quality control rules and deliver parts on time. NRC inspectors have faulted the facility for failing to maintain accurate records on the qualifications of workers. SCANA Corp. raised similar concerns.

Shaw spokeswoman Gentry Brann said the company has addressed the NRC’s concerns.

In Tennessee, internal reviews faulted the Tennessee Valley Authority for not providing enough oversight on the project and for allowing a culture to develop that discouraged the sharing of bad news, for example, site problems that led to delays. Not enough engineering work was finished before construction started, meaning construction workers sometimes did not have enough work to do.

In an embarrassing episode, the TVA temporarily stopped work at the site in January after two mishaps revealed safety problems. No one was injured, and the operating plant did not experience any problems. In one case, workers removed a cable connected to equipment in the working reactor. In another, they cut out valves before getting proper clearance and verifying the system was safe.

Changes have been made to bring the project under control, said Mike Skaggs, who became the authority’s senior vice president of nuclear construction in October. He said the TVA has carefully evaluated the remaining work on the reactor, slimmed down its workforce and made instructions to work crews easier to understand.

Skaggs has been involved in building two other nuclear plants and said the project requires constant monitoring.

“If you’ve got a good estimate, you use the estimate as a roadmap to complete the project,” Skaggs said. “What I’m most worried about is the assumptions we’ve made in the estimate — are they ringing out true?”

KABOOM GOES THE MARCELLUS SHALE GAS BOOM

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Posted on 30th March 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Well this boom didn’t take long to go boom. The politicians and mega-corp CEOs like Aubrey McClendon promised riches and hundreds of thousands of jobs for the poor people in rural Pennsylvania. We didn’t need to tax them or put any safety regulations on their fracking. Natural gas is selling for $2.17 per MMBtu this morning. It costs approximately $8 per MMBtu to extract shale gas through fracking. Hmm. What do you think is going to happen? How about bankruptcies, writeoffs, massive losses, no new jobs, no new riches, and contaminated pools of fracking solution left behind for the fine people of rural PA. The Wall Street slime and weasels like McClendon are still selling the leases to clueless dupes, promising them riches beyond their dreams. I’ve learned that whenever McClendon opens his big mouth, be sure that the exact opposite will occur. This douchebag borrowed millions to invest in his own stock in 2007 before the collapse and ended up wiping out almost his entire net worth.

This slow motion collapse will pick up speed in the next year. I love the name Marcellus. Just don’t say WHAT AGAIN.

 

 

Marcellus Shale: A house of cards

The gas industry scored a major public relations coup in 2009 when it commissioned two Pennsylvania State University professors to extol its position in a research paper published by the university.

The “Penn State Report” as it came to be known, established the gas industry’s compact with the state. It created a shell within which the industry would not be taxed heavily and not taxed at all on the gas it extracted. In return, the state was promised taxes, jobs, and economic development from the “multiplier effect” of the drilling activity and from the expected investment by leaseholder’s bonuses and royalties. Except for state leases on forest land, no income would come directly from gas production.

Essentially, the state was persuaded to give up a finite commonwealth asset, worth hundreds of billions of dollars, in return for unsubstantiated promises of jobs and taxes from drilling service industries. Only a small portion of the promised “multiplier” benefits have materialized. A study by Penn State Extension and Pennsylvania College of Technology looked at how lessees in Bradford and Tioga counties spent their bonuses and royalty money in 2009. Only 15.3 percent of how they used this income would have added jobs in the state.

Gas corporations compete to lease acreage, leases which are time sensitive and require active exploitation within a few years. That, and satisfying investors with production, has caused a rush to drill. The state, to get its promised rewards, became a partner in expedited drilling. The industry quickly overproduced its market which has caused the price of gas to plummet.

Shale gas is expensive to exploit. A 2008 Bank of America NYMEX analysis put the average break-even point for drillers at $8 per thousand cubic feet which is more than three times its current market value. With gas value decoupled from its high production cost, gas companies are experiencing large negative cash flows, $6 billion for Chesapeake Energy alone last year. There is a distinction between technically recoverable and economically recoverable natural gas. At the moment, it is likely that none of the gas in Pennsylvania’s Marcellus shale is economically recoverable.

Unable to make money from selling gas, corporations rely on their investors and the sale of assets to carry them through. Investors count on in-ground reserves to underpin their confidence which is problematic because estimates vary wildly and there is suspicion of hype by corporations. Arthur Berman, a geologist and investment analyst, has been warning that some of these investments are already under water.

The need to book in-ground reserves has created a commodity market for shale acreage independent of the price of natural gas. Selling in-ground assets to other corporations has often become the core business. Aubrey McClendon, Chesapeake Energy’s CEO, bragged that flipping acreage is much more profitable than selling gas. Foreign companies, some state owned, helped drive this market, investing $56.4 billion dollars last year. Sven Del Pozzo, a senior equity analyst at IHS Inc. worries that this market, which is fetching around $15,000 per acre, has become a bubble.

Drilling rigs are beginning to leave the “dry gas” region of northeast Pa. in flight to “wet gas” regions. They won’t all go because of the need to secure leases and show production to anchor stock prices. Gas production will continue and even increase in the short term as already-drilled wells are connected to the distribution network.

Small business owners who have invested in providing services to the drilling industry believed in the decades of prosperity that their government, their university, and their business leaders promised. Now, just two-and-a-half years later, they are in great danger of being hurt.

Jon Bogle is a Professor Emeritus at Lycoming College. A founding member and first president of the Responsible Drilling Alliance in Williamsport, Pennsylvania he has testified before state legislative committees on shale gas economics and environmental issues.

SOMEBODY’S GOING TO GET FRACKED

12 comments

Posted on 19th January 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Shale Gas Boom – Meet Shale Gas Bust. It appears the hype about endless riches for companies spearheading the fracking of America is about to run right into the wall of reality at 100 mph. At this very moment the price for natural gas is currently $2.34/Mcf. This is a ten year low. It seems the laws of supply and demand still apply. When I saw this info, my initial question was what is the breakeven price for a shale gas well. You see it is costly and time consuming to frack. Millions of gallons of water, ponds, leasing the land, transporting the gas, labor, rigs, etc. Well I came across a number of articles on the interwebs. Here is a link to one:

 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7075

Below is the key fact.

Shale gas operators have consistently told investors that their projects are profitable at sub-$5/Mcf (thousand cubic feet) natural gas prices. Yet company 10-K SEC filings show that this is untrue. They have invented a new calculus of partial-cycle economics that excludes major capital draws for land costs, interest expense and overhead. They justify these disclosure practices because excluded costs are either sunk or fixed and, therefore, supposedly should not affect their decisions to drill. Their point-forward plans are made at shareholder expense since the dollars spent were very real at the time, and their costs cannot be charged to a profit center other than the wells that they drill and produce.

A multi-year evaluation of production costs for ten shale operators indicates a $7.00/Mcf average break-even cost for shale gas plays in the U.S. taking hedging into account (Figure 1). In other words, shale gas plays are not low-cost but comparable to conventional and other non-conventional projects. Despite claims to the contrary, the gas-price environment has been favorable over this period, in part because of hedging, and poor performance cannot be blamed on price. Over-production has changed this dynamic and hedging will not benefit operators in the second half of 2010 or in 2011, and possibly not for several years forward. This emerging trend will test the shale gas business model and show that it is unsustainable. The same ten companies that we evaluated have cumulative debt of more than $30 billion of which three have combined debt of more than $20 billion.

A number of other articles also estimated the breakeven price at $7/Mcf. This means that any company fracking today is losing their shirt at $2.34/Mcf. If prices stay this low or go lower you will see rig counts drop and companies declaring bankruptcy. All the politicians counting on new jobs and increased tax revenues will be sorely disappointed. There is one thing that always happens with booms. They always go bust.

Natural Gas Keeps Tumbling, And Even Lower Prices Could Be On The Way

By Dan Strumpf

Bloomberg

Is there any end to the free-fall that has gripped the natural gas market?

We’ve been following this bloodbath all week, which has gotten even worse today. Front-month February gas futures are down again for the eighth day in a row–trading down more than 5%. Recently they sank to 2.336 per million British thermal units, their lowest level since March 1, 2002.

That’s right, a 10-year low.

Today’s decline is driven primarily by a weekly inventory report from the Department of Energy. The report said U.S. natural gas stockpiles fell 87 billion cubic feet last week.

Gas inventories usually fall in the winter as homes and offices turn up their thermostats and burn more of the fuel. But the size of the draw is absurdly small. This time last year, inventories fell 228 billion cubic feet. The five-year average decline for the week is 162.

The reason: unusually warm temperatures have swept the country in recent months. And forecasters widely believe temps will stay high all winter. That means less fuel used for heating–and more fuel in storage.

Pax Saunders, analyst at the Houston firm Gelber & Associates, describes natural gas inventories this way: “It’s just an amazing millstone on the neck of the market.

So far this year, natural gas has lost more than 20% of its value. At some point, analysts say, natural gas producers will have to start curtailing production. But for many wells, pumping gas is so cheap that they can still afford to keep the taps on. Many produce a mix of gas, oil and other liquids, which offset the rock-bottom price of gas.

Which means that even lower prices could be on the way.