“STRONG” RETAIL SALES???

242 comments

Posted on 13th May 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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The markets are attempting to rally on the “unexpectedly positive” retail sales numbers for April. The bullshit is getting so deep in this country, you have to wear hip boots. Even though I’m a trusting soul and know the MSM and our Wall Street economist “experts” will tell me what I need to know, I decided to go directly to the report. Here is a link in case you want the actual data:

http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Here are my observations about the “strong” retail sales:

  • Through the beauty of seasonal adjustments the actual 2.7% decrease in retail sales in April versus March becomes a .09% increase, which is rounded up to .1% by the MSM. The government drones would never use seasonal adjustments to make numbers look better than they really are. Right?
  • Even with seasonal adjustments, retail sales only went up $377 million. The subprime financing scam being run by the Obama owned Ally Financial and the other government subsidized Wall Street shysters resulted in a $783 million increase in auto sales. Therefore, retail sales excluding this government use of your tax dollars actually declined by $406 billion.
  • The MSM is crowing about the lower gasoline sales which are benefitting the American consumer. If you look at the 4 month trend versus last year, you see that retail sales at gasoline stations is down 1.1% versus last year. Let me remind you that last year was the highest average price for gasoline in history, so a 1.1% decline is not exactly a windfall to the consumer. Do you see the MSM reporting the facts on this chart?

  • The first four months of retail sales in 2013 have sucked. Overall, they are up 3.3%. Subtracting the government boosted auto sales and the increase is 2.5%. Even using the government manipulated CPI yields basically flat retail sales with 2012. Using a real inflation rate of 5% reveals that real retail sales are declining by 2.5% in the first four months of 2013.
  • If there is a real housing recovery how could retail sales of furniture, electronics and building materials be languishing in the -0.7% to 3.6% range? How can general merchandise sales (Wal-Mart, Target) be 3.4% below last year?

The fact is that real retail sales are falling. The Obama tax increases and Obamacare insurance premium increases have sucked the life out of the consumer. Gas prices have risen 10 cents per gallon in the last two weeks. The busy driving season is coming. The Middle East is a powderkeg. Hurricane season isn’t far off. Companies are cutting the hours of their employees. The savings rate is already at 2.7%. Consumers are reducing credit card debt. There are 10,000 people per day turning 65. Sounds like a recipe for strong retail sale growth. Right?

Maybe a government drone economist could chime in and explain the extreme wide variation in seasonal adjustments over the last ten years. Shouldn’t seasonal adjustments for the same month be fairly consistent over time? Inquiring minds want to know.

 

RETAIL SALES ALWAYS FALL DURING AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY – RIGHT?

6 comments

Posted on 12th April 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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It was the Sequester!!! It was Easter!!! It was too cold!!! It was too much fiscal austerity!!!!

What we’ve got here is TOO MUCH BULLSHIT!!!

Wall Street, the MSM and your political hack representatives will try to spin our deteriorating economic calamity into gold, but report after report confirms that we are in recession and headed south. But, buy stocks anyway. Just because consumer spending accounts for 71% of GDP, why would a collapse in consumer spending have an impact on our economy? It takes a village of idiots to run this country.

Here is the link to the atrociously bad retail report:

http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Here are my observations, which will be SLIGHTLY different than the bullshit you will hear on CNBC or read on Marketwatch:

  • Retail sales fell in March versus February by $2 billion, and shockingly January sales which had been reported as being higher, were revised lower. Your government drones doing their usual coverup.
  • The increase over last year of 2.8% is less than the real inflation rate of 5%.
  • Even auto sales dropped, despite 48% of sales from subprime loans and as long as 7 years.
  • If there is a housing recovery how could furniture and electronics sales be flat with last year? I guess Blackrock isn’t buying furniture for their millions of rental units.
  • How could Building Materials stores (Home Depot, Lowes) have flat sales if there is a housing recovery?
  • General merchandise store (Wal-Mart, Target) sales fell month over month and year over year. This is with 5% inflation. The profits of department stores are going to plummet in the 1st quarter.
  • Even internet sales were flat. They had been advancing at a 10% to 15% clip.
  • Even with food inflation of 5% to 10%, grocery store sales declined.
  • The fractional increase in restaurant and bar sales was due to inflation and people drowning their sorrows in alcohol.

This was a horrific retail report. The Obama tax increases, Obamacare premium increases, declining real wages for workers, and the continued QEing of the American middle class by Bernanke is why this is happening. It ain’t the fucking weather!!! 

 

Retail sales post biggest drop in 9 months

Spending falls by 0.4% in March as most stores take a hit

By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Americans spent less at gasoline stations and most other stores in March, as retail sales posted the biggest decline in nine months.

The decline in sales — the biggest since last June — might be a sign that higher taxes and slower job creation are taking a bite out of the economy. A cold snap in March might also have limited sales for some retail items such as clothing. 

Retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.4% last month after a revised 1.0% gain in February, the Commerce Department said Friday. That was below the MarketWatch forecast of a 0.1% decline.

Sales for January were also revised to show a 0.1% drop instead of a 0.2% increase, suggesting that first-quarter growth might not be as strong as forecast. The U.S. is estimated to have grown 3.0% in the first quarter, according to the latest MarketWatch estimate.

The drop in retail sales is the latest in a string of reports, including last week’s disappointing employment number for March, signaling the U.S. economy has cooled off again.

The “recent data suggest that the economy took a step backward in March after coming out of the gates reasonably strongly to start the year,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.

Sales fell the sharpest at gasoline stations, down 2.2% in the month, as the price at the pump declined. The average cost of regular gas fell from $3.72 a gallon to around $3.57 in March, according to government figures.

Falling sales at gas stations are a good thing for consumers because it gives them more to spend on other items aside from basic necessities. Yet Americans also reduced purchases at many other stores.

Sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6% at auto dealers, 1.6% at electronic and appliance stores, 1.2% at general-merchandise outlets and 1.1% at department stores.

Retailers that sell books, music, hobby items, personal-care goods also posted lower sales. Even spending at groceries tapered off.

Many economists had predicted sales might soften in the spring as consumers began to feel the pinch of higher taxes or move to rebuild a savings rate that plunged at the end of 2012. Reductions in federal spending via a law known as the sequester and a slower pace of hiring may have also weighed on consumer spending.

Retail sales account for about one-third of consumer spending, the main engine of the economy. They are a good proxy for how fast the U.S. is growing, though the data is prone to sharp revisions like what occurred in January.

Sales have fallen in two of the first three months of 2013, though, and the pace of spending has decelerated. In the past 12 months, the increase in retail sales slowed to 2.8% in March from 4.4% in February.

A few retailers stood out in March. Spending jumped 0.9% at stores that sell home furnishings, a carryover from improving home sales. The housing market is finally rebounding from a long slump, and sales are expected to continue to rise.

Sales also rose at bars and restaurants, in somewhat of a surprise, as well as at Internet retailers, a category that has outperformed most others over the past decade.

Sales were essentially flat at apparel stores, perhaps because of a cold spell in March. That may have spurred shoppers to delay the purchase of new clothes for the spring, meaning there could be a snapback in April.

In February, the government revised the retail-sales increase to 1.0% from 1.1%

EXCUSE OF THE MONTH FOR CONTINUED DOWNWARD SPIRAL OF RETAILERS

15 comments

Posted on 11th April 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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It was TOO cold for consumers to shop in March. It will be TOO hot for consumers to shop in April. People were TOO depressed by the Newtown shooting to shop at Christmas. The devastation from Hurricane Sandy was TOO overwhelming for consumers to shop in November.

Do you sense a pattern? There is a continuous stream of excuses for terrible sales by even the best retailers. Costco is the best run retailer in America and they aren’t meeting expectations. Most retailers aren’t covering their cost inflation with their comp store sales gains. Real inflation is running above 5%, but the majority of retailers are barely ecking out 2% sales increases.

Bed Bath & Beyond reported their earnings last night. If you adjust their results for the extra week in this year’s number, their earnings declined. Their comp store sales increases are below 2.5%. These fools spent $600 million buying Cost Plus and used another $350 million buying back their stock.

The idiot MSM parrots ridiculous notions that the housing recovery will spur retail sales. These faux journalists actually think that Blackstone and the rest of the Wall Street shysters buying up foreclosed homes to rent out is going to spur retail sales? It’s beyond laughable.

The excuses will continue. The average American family continues to see their real wages decline. Without income, consumers can’t buy shit from retailers. It really is that simple, but those in power don’t want to accept the truth. A storyline about weather or Easter will do for now.

Retailers deliver chilly same-store sales

By Karen Talley

Retailers are posting tepid sales for a second month in a row, with March blasted by cold weather and a still-uncertain consumer, much like February.

Spring and summer merchandise remained on racks during a month that traditionally marks the beginning of warm-weather buying.

“The mass public is still not feeling good about discretionary spending,” said Nancy Liu, retail strategist at consulting firm Kurt Salmon. “Gas prices are still high, the job market is still slow to recover, so there is a lack of confidence.”

Because of sluggish buying, “on the retailers’ side, there could be pressure on inventories that could lead to heavier-than-usual discounting” in late spring and early summer, Ms. Liu said.

Among retailers bucking the trend, Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST) posted a 6% rise in U.S. same-store sales minus gas, when 5.9% was expected.

L Brands Inc., the former Limited Brands, saw same-store sales grow 3%, when flat results were expected. The operator of Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works said the Easter shift into March this year from April last year hurt sales by 1% to 2%. The company expects April same-store sales to rise by a low-single-digit percentage rate. At L Brands, “New and updated product continues to drive the business and this is a trend we believe will continue,” said RBC Capital Markets analyst Howard Tubin.

The 11 retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters are expected to post 2.2% growth in same-store sales, or sales at stores open more than a year. This is the lowest growth since September 2009, when 1.9% was recorded as the economy suffered the lingering effects of the recession. The March figure compares with 7.1% a year ago when much of the country was enjoying unseasonably warm weather that spurred demand and consumers to pay full price for merchandise. In February, retailers posted 3.9% growth in same-store sales, compared with a 7.4% rise for 11 companies a year earlier.

Even Easter falling in March this year didn’t help, as traditional spring buying around the holiday was hurt by cold weather in many parts of the country. Last month was the coldest March in the U.S. in 17 years, with the most snowfall in 20 years, according to Weather Trends International, a weather-tracking service.

Also, many retailers were closed on Easter.

TJX Cos. (NYSE:TJX) posted a 2% drop in same-store sales when a 1% decline was expected. “Due to the year-over-year timing of Easter, we had not planned March to be a strong month against last year’s high increase,” said Carol Meyrowitz, chief executive of the operator of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls.

Zumiez Inc.’s (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) March same-store sales rose 2.1%, topping expectations for a decrease of 7.5%. Shares are up 9.4% to $27.25 premarket.

Fellow teen retailer Buckle Inc. (NYSE:BKE) posted flat comparable-store sales when a 0.3% decline was expected.

Fred’s Inc. (NASDAQ:FRED) posted a 3% drop in same-store sales when a 1.7% decline was expected. The discount retailer “expected that March general merchandising sales would be adversely affected by unseasonably cool weather and the timing of the Easter holiday,” with seasonal and lawn and garden departments especially hard hit, said Chief Executive Bruce Efird.

Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS) , which reports after the closing bell, is expected to post a 2.1% decline, its first drop in same-store sales in just about a year.

RETAIL SALES SURGE!!! ACCORDING TO MSM – OH YEAH IT WAS FOR GASOLINE

3 comments

Posted on 13th March 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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I see the huge MSM headline that retail sales SURGED in February. Glory be to the father, the economy is saved. One little tiny itsy bitsy problem. The SURGE was due to gasoline prices going up 15% and you having to spend gobs more money filling your gas tank. But that doesn’t make a good headline.  Here is a link to the retail report:

http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 Here are my observations:

  • “Adjusted” retail sales rose by $4.4 billion, but unadjusted sales FELL by $1.4 billion. Gotta love those government “adjustments”.
  • Note this closely. Of the $4.4 billion SURGE in retail sales, $2.3 billion was from gasoline stations. For the math challenged morons in the MSM, that means that 52% of the increase was due to average Americans spending their hard earned wages on fuel. Thank you Ben Bernanke for that non-existent inflation.
  • Another $900 million of the increase was from auto sales, which are entirely financed by cheap government debt through Ally Financial (Failed the Fed stress test) and the other criminal Wall Street banks. That accounts for another 20% of the increase.
  • Grocery stores accounted for another $400 million as food prices continue to rise. That accounts for another 9%, with internet purchases increasing $600 million (14%) because people can’t afford to drive to malls anymore.
  • Gas, autos, food, and internet purchases accounted for 95% of the retail sales SURGE. What a fantastic month!!!!
  • Sales at furniture stores, electronics stores, sporting goods stores, and restaurants FELL, even using the good old “adjusted” government figures. This is called discretionary spending. It’s where people spend when they have something left over from trying to survive their day to day existence.

I suppose the stock market will SURGE on this wonderful data. It’s really hard to watch this propaganda machine in action when you know the truth. So it goes.

U.S. retail sales jump 1.1% in February

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – U.S. retail sales posted the biggest increase in February in five months, but about half the increase took place at gas stations and reflected higher prices at the pump. Sales rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1% last month, or by 1.0% excluding the auto sector, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected retail sales to jump 0.7% for both the overall number and minus autos. Sales rose a smaller 0.6% excluding gas stations and 0.4% minus autos and gas. Retail sales are a good proxy for how fast the U.S. is growing and the latest data sugggest consumer spending is fairly steady. In the past 12 months, retail sales are up 4.6%, slightly more than double the rate of consumer inflation. Last month, sales surged at auto dealers, gas stations, building-material stores and Internet retailers. Gas-station sales shot up 5%, the biggest increase since oil prices spiked last August. Sales also rose slightly for stores that sell clothes and general merchandise. Sales fell at department stores and shops that sell home furnishings, electronics, and sporting and hobby items. Bar and restaurant sales also declined. In January, the increase in retail sales was revised up a tick to 0.2%. December sales were unchanged at a 0.5% gain.

 
 

CHRISTMAS SALES IN THE SHITTER

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Posted on 31st December 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Who could of predicted this? Oh yeah – ME.

The Wall Street shills were predicting the best retail sales in years. Even with two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, sales went into the shitter. The excuses are well known – Sandy, Newtown, fiscal cliff, blah, blah, blah. The one excuse you won’t hear is that the country has run our of money. People need jobs to buy the Chinese slave labor produced shit from Wally World. Extracting more money from the producers and handing it to the unemployable is a net zero transaction. The debt based system has reached its limit. There is nothing left. I predict that shysters will predict strong after Christmas sales in January. I also predict they will be wrong again.

Retailers gird for disappointing December sales

Pivotal month’s receipts may turn out to be lowest in four years

By Andria Cheng, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — It doesn’t look like the new year will greet retailers on a welcome note.

Retailers, scheduled to report their critical December same-store sales on Thursday, will likely show disappointing results hurt by factors including declining consumer confidence tied to Washington’s fiscal-cliff uncertainty, analysts said Monday. See related on consumers’ latest expectations as compiled by the Conference Board.

Consensus estimates for December, according to Retail Metrics data, fell another 0.2 of a percentage point on Monday for both same-store sales and same-store sales excluding drug stores — to increases of 1.9% and 3.7%, respectively. Retail Metrics noted that the average analyst estimate has declined by 0.6 of a percentage point from the start of the month.

Reuters

A man walks past a shop while carrying a shopping bag in New York the day after Christmas. The 2012 holiday season may have been the worst for retailers since the financial crisis, with sales growth likely to come in far below expectations, forcing many to offer massive post-holiday discounts in hopes of shedding excess inventory.

“This is significant downward move to sales estimates for the most important month of the year,” said Retail Metrics president Ken Perkins, noting that December alone represents about one-fifth of total annual sales.

The gain would mark retailers’ worst December performance since 2008, Perkins told MarketWatch.

With two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, retailers, without must-have items to entice shoppers, also experienced a big lull following consumers’ initial fervor seen over Thanksgiving weekend fervor as more procrastinated in their holiday shopping, analysts said.

Meanwhile, a bout of colder weather in late December didn’t look to salvage warmer-than-average temperatures seen earlier in the month that hurt demand for heavy coats and other cold-weather merchandise. All in all, December has shaped up to be the second warmest in more than 21 years for the U.S. as a whole, according to Weather Trends International.

Consumers’ mood to visit malls and shop also was hurt by the mass shooting at a Newtown, Conn., school, they said. See related story on ShopperTrak cutting holiday forecast.

The dampened mood is cutting into estimates across the discount, department-store and apparel segments. Among individual retailers, analysts have lowered consensus estimates on Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS) , Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE:KSS) and Macy’s Inc. (NYSE:M) as well as Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE:LTD) , the parent of Victoria’s Secret and T.J. Maxx parent TJX Cos. (NYSE:TJX) , Retail Metrics data showed.

‘Short of plan’

Retailers had hoped they would make up business in December after Hurricane Sandy, the superstorm that devastated parts of the Northeast, hurt their November receipts. Retailers’ November miss raises holiday stake.

“We believe December same-store sales trends fell short of plan,” said UBS analyst Michael Binetti, who cut estimates on Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN) besides on Macy’s and Kohl’s.

A late-month “sales rally wasn’t sufficient to hit planned sales targets. Weather-sensitive Kohl’s has the most [sales] downside. Macy’s strong e-commerce business and aggressive extended hours pre-Christmas strategy helped fight sluggish mall traffic in the month,” Binetti wrote. High stakes in retailers’ post-Christmas hustle.

Analysts also cut their fourth-quarter sales view on struggling J.C. Penney Co. (NYSE:JCP) , which doesn’t report monthly sales, to a 24.9% drop following a 26% decline in the third quarter, Retail Metrics data showed.

Meanwhile, electronics retailer Best Buy Co. (NYSE:BBY) , facing the possibility of a buyout pending its holiday sales results, was expected to report a 3% fourth-quarter drop, Retail Metrics data showed. See related story on Best Buy.

Still, while sales may have suffered a setback, analysts said better inventory control and mostly planned promotions so far in the season, coupled with lower cotton costs, are likely going to keep retailers’ profit margin mostly intact.

It’s a “ho-hum holiday, but margin cushion [is] to allow most to meet [per-share profit] expectations,” said UBS analyst Roxanne Meyer, adding chains such as Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) and Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) were “notably less promotional” in December.

She cut her sales estimates on Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE:ARO) , Gap and Victoria’s Secret.

As retailers like Tiffany, Saks, Best Buy and Wal-Mart vie for last-minute holiday sales, customers are being drawn away by a growing crop of competitors: pawn shops. Andria Cheng has details. (Photo: Getty Images.)

Analysts have also cut their estimates on discounter Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT) , after the company’s much-touted designer collection in partnership with Neiman Marcus failed to generate expected demand. Target marked the collection off by 50% just about three weeks after the launch at the start of December.

Analysts also said Target’s P-Fresh expanded food assortment and 5% discount given on its Target card purchases provided less of a lift during the holiday period because spending is more geared toward non-essential items during the holidays.

“We expect [Target] sales remained sluggish in aggregate over the holidays amidst a competitive backdrop,” said Robert W. Baird & Co. analyst Peter Benedict.

On the other hand, larger rival Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) . which doesn’t report monthly sales, is regarded as a holiday winner. Pawn shops also a holiday bright spot?

“We believe Walmart had a strong holiday season,” said Gilford Securities analyst Bernard Sosnick. The company “had its best Black Friday and that layaways were greater than a year ago.

“Food and consumables sales benefited from sharper pricing … apparel departments had a good sell-through across much of the U.S.”

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