NEITHER THE GUTS NOR THE DESIRE

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Posted on 6th May 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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You can be sure Paul Krugman won’t be writing an article about the $23 trillion unfunded Social Security liability. That’s just a rounding error for a intellectually bankrupt Keynesian douchebag. As Bruce points out, no one in Washington DC or in the MSM will put forth a plan to save SS. They’ll let future generations figure it out when it implodes. The $23 trillion will rise rapidly after the SSDI program runs out of money in 2015 and the SS program starts paying for those bad backs and depression. The illegal immigrants will be given credit for SS taxes previously withheld when they are legalized. If the generations graduating high school today understood math, they’d be really mad. They will fund their parents retirements but be left with a flaming bag of shit when it’s their turn.

SS Report Due Out This Week

 
Bruce Krasting's picture

Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 05/06/2013 07:06 -0400

The Social Security Trust Fund annual report to Congress is due out this week. It will be discussed in the Press for a few days. Some of the things that will come up:

 

- The NPV of the unfunded liability will go up by approximately $2 trillion, to $23 trillion. Every year this horrific number is discussed, and then ignored. What does this number mean? The 2012 increase in new liabilities is double the reported increase in federal debt. If this number were added to the existing debt, it would bring the total nut the country faces to $39T – 250% of GDP.

The problem is that the calculation measures the present cost of the infinite future. Who cares about something that might go wrong 50+ years from now? Hopefully, the scary NPV number to be released will focus attention on SS. The fact is that SS is PayGo. It has a revenue base, it spends more than it takes in, the Treasury makes up any shortfall by issuing more debt. If this reality were the basis of looking at SS (versus goofy TF accounting), then there would be no infinite future issues.

 

- The date of exhaustion of the OASDI TF will be shortened by 2 years to 2031. This means that anyone 47 or younger is paying “full price” for a benefit that will be worth only 75 cents on the dollar. That is how the law is currently written; I keep wondering when younger workers will wake up to the realities of what they are paying for.

 

- The SSTF will recommend that either payroll taxes go up by 2.5%, or that all current and future benefits get cut by 2.5% (or some combo). These recommendations would require an immediate change to achieve the desire long term stability of SS.

There is note a chance in hell that anything like that will happen. Washington can’t agree to a change in benefits that amounts to .3% a year. There is no way that an across the board cut could be agreed on. More payroll taxes are not going to happen either. They are regressive, so liberals don’t like them and conservatives will just say “no” to higher taxes. Either of the options would be a drag on the economy, so nothing will happen.

 

- The “drop-dead” date for the Disability Fund will be revised to the 4th quarter of 2015. In 30 months all DI benefits will be cut by 30%. Again, that is current law.

I think the TF report will make it clear that a fix for the problem with DI must be addressed ASAP. Nothing will come from that plea; the fix on DI will be resolved a week before the drop dead date.

 

- There will have to be significant downward YoY adjustments in interest income that the TF will earn. It’s the Fed’s policy to starve SS. ZIRP and QE will “cost” SS $500b in lost income in the 2008-2018 period. The deterioration at SS in 2012 will largely be attributable to the realities of the Fed’s policies.

 

- The combined OASDI Funds will “top out” in 2017, the peak of the Funds will be ~2.85T. This milestone is coming much sooner than had been anticipated a few years ago. The maximum size of the TF will be smaller than what has been assumed.

The reality is that the Baby-Boomers did not “save” enough to cover their cost. The Boomers will come up ‘short’ by at least $1T. The day that they will be hitting the principal of that ‘savings’ is coming 5 years sooner than hoped for.

 

- The Report will contain all sorts of economic projections. (There might also be changes in mortality rates.) There are dozens of ways to push numbers back and forth. One of the more significant variables is the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). In May of 2013 the USA is facing the lowest LFPR in decades. The SSTF has assumed that this will reverse course and move substantially higher over the next five years, and remain at higher levels forever. If the SSTF does revise downward its assumptions on the LFPR it will have significant consequences to the long term health of SS. I do not think that the necessary changes will be made, an unrealistic assumption will be used again.

I expect an overall “Blue Skies” set of assumptions in the SSTF report to Congress. There will also be an analysis that is referred to as “High Cost”. This set of numbers will be ignored by the main stream media, but these numbers will be closer to what is coming for SS.

 

-There will be ZERO discussion in the TF report to Congress on the most critical short-term issue that SS faces – Immigration Reform. I study these things, and I can’t give you an idea what will happen to the economics at SS when there are new immigration laws. There is no data available to draw a definitive conclusion as yet. The TF report should address the uncertainties (or at least provide some numbers that could be studied), but it won’t.

The consequences to SS regarding changes in immigration range from good, to neutral, to bad. SS has previously disclosed that it has collected hundreds of billions from illegal SS cards. My estimate on the amount involved is +$300B that has been collected and retained by SS. What will the resolution of this be?

 

* The new immigration laws could say that any prior contributions are lost – that is the “penalty” that must be paid. This would be a windfall to SS.

* The law could be written in a way that would recognize those prior contributions, and allow them as “credits” to the individual’s benefit calculations. This would result in significant additional liabilities for both the DI and the Retirement Funds.

 

For wonks like me, the annual report is something to look forward to. For the 99.0% of Americans who have no idea what is at stake, it will be another ho-hum. SS is the largest source of government spending and the biggest source of tax revenue. It’s not financially sound – the report will reconfirm that. The upcoming report will make for some splashy headlines for a few days, and then it will be forgotten. D.C. has neither the guts nor the desire to take on what is America’s biggest economic problem.

 

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FREE SHIT “DISABLED” ARMY MASSING ITS FORCES

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Posted on 13th January 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Whenever I hear a liberal MSM talking head say that Social Security is not a problem, I could spit.

Obama and Romney both declared the Social Security system sound. They lied to the American people that it will only require minor tweaks to keep it solvent for a hundred years. Liberals hate math. The Social Security System has an unfunded liability of $18 trillion. This means our politicians have promised $18 trillion more than they can possibly pay out. I guess $18 trillion is trivial to a liberal minded person like Krugman or Obama. Lucky for them that 99% of all Americans don’t understand what unfunded liability even means. The chart below gives the gory details. The Social Security system had a negative cashflow of $47.8 billion last year, after running a $48 billion deficit the year before. You may notice that 77% of this deficit was created by the SSDI program, where the depressed masses gather after their 99 weeks of unemployment run out. Do you have a headache? Are you depressed because liquor stores don’t accept food stamps? Did you pull a muscle getting on your government provided rascal? Trouble hearing your Obama phone? Then you are eligible for SSDI.

The funniest line item on the chart is the Assets at End of Year line, which shows the Social Security system having $2.7 trillion. Even using this funny number, the SSDI will be broke in three years. Al Gore told us this money was in a lockbox. They take it out of your paycheck and put it into a fund, waiting for you to retire and collect what you’re owed. Right? Wrong! If you tried to observe the vault with the $2.7 trillion on deposit, you’d be looking for a long long time. You see, the noble politicians in Washington DC took the $2.7 trillion and spent it on undeclared wars overseas, ethanol subsidies, investments in Solyndra, turtle crossings, tax breaks for hedge funds, TARP, bailing out AIG, subsidizing GM, $800 billion stimulus packages, cash for clunkers, homebuyer tax credits, predator drones, DHS, Sandy relief and thousands of other buckets of shit. There are nothing but IOU’s in the vault. The $2.7 trillion is long gone. The U.S. government had to borrow $47.8 billion to fund SS last year. They will have to borrow over $50 billion this year. There will be 10,000 per day turning 65 for the next decade. The borrowing will rise exponentially. If the $2.7 trillion actually existed, why would we need to borrow?

The trust funds are required by law to hand over all surplus revenues to the Treasury and the Treasury then provides “special issue” non-marketable bonds—essentially electronic IOUs—to the trust funds in return for the cash. These “IOUs” become part of the national debt. When the Treasury pays “interest” that increases the value of the Social Security Trust Funds it does so by increasing the number of IOUs it owes the trust funds. When the Social Security program runs a net cash flow deficit, as it has in the last three fiscal years, the Treasury needs to borrow cash from the “public” to keep the program funded.

Does this look like a trend that is going to reverse itself or level out with 10,000 Boomers turning 65 years old every freaking day?

These costs will be exceeding $1 trillion per year in the near future. Meanwhile, the number of workers per retiree will continue to fall as it has for decades. In 1945 there were 42 workers per retiree. In 1965 there were 5 workers per retiree. Today there are less than 2.5 workers per retiree. There are only 1.6 full time private workers for every one retiree. With Obamacare working its magic of destroying jobs across the land, there is much less revenue going into the Social Security System. The system is unsustainable and ignoring the problem will not make it go away.

A recent article on Bloomberg below barely scratches the surface of the massive fraud going on in the SSDI program. Those who think we owe them a living are faking disabilities by the millions. The number of annual applications were flat at 2.1 million per year between 2004 and 2007. They now exceed 3 million per year, as the Obama administration has actively attempted to get more people on the dole. In a matter of a couple years, there were suddenly 40% more people getting disabled. Amazing!!!

Shockingly, as 1.4 million people have been kicked off the 99 week unemployment rolls, the number of people applying for SSDI skyrocketed. Just because the scumbags on Wall Street and in the rest of corporate America commit fraud on a massive scale does not mean we should look the other way when lowlifes in our community do the same thing on a smaller scale. The working middle class pays the bill for the cost of both frauds. More than 90% of all the people who go onto SSDI never go back to work. This program was supposed to be short term until people could recover and go back to work. There are now 8.83 million people so disabled, they supposedly can’t work. There are only 12 million officially unemployed people in the country. The government is so incompetent, they barely check the applications for SSDI. Anyone with an ounce of brain power (this disqualifies anyone on MSNBC) knows that at least 50% of the people on SSDI are capable of some form of employment.

The Social Security system is already broke. The money is gone. Pretending all is well is for fools and there are millions of them in this country. If someone within the leadership of this country was honest with the American people we could fix the Social Security system. A combination of age adjustments, means testing, and reconfiguration of income levels subject to the tax could make it viable. Too bad Washington is inhabited by snakes, scumbags, liars and knaves. Corrupt lowlife politicians, lying liberal media whores, and a delusional populace will ignore the Social Security problem until it becomes a crisis of epic proportions. Then they will propose wrong solutions and implement them badly. Some things are easily predictable.

GRANNY CHOOSES CAT FOOD OVER SLOTS

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Posted on 10th October 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Maybe Las Vegas casinos should start accepting EBT cards for their slot machines. You know times are tough when poor senior citizens have given up the dream of hitting it big playing the slots in Vegas. Overall, gambling revenues are falling in Vegas and Atlantic City. The poor suckers are running out of dough to blow. Word is out that the Social Security increase for next year will be 1.7%, because we all know food, energy and medical costs for senior citizens have barely gone up in the last year. This doesn’t bode well for the casino industry. Maybe we can bail them out next year.

The little blurb below reveals another truth. The 1% play table games and that revenue is up nicely. The 99% play slots and that revenue plunged. Granny will have to pick cat food over hitting the jackpot.

  

Oct. 10, 2012, 11:40 a.m. EDT

Nevada gambling revenue off 3% in August

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Gambling revenue in Nevada fell a bit more than 3% to $859.2 million in August, according to figures released Wednesday by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. On the Las Vegas Strip, which accounts for more than half the statewide total, revenue slipped 1.2% to $490.9 million with the take from slot machines off 9% and table games up 7.6% on the back of solid baccarat volume. “We believe these results are consistent with investor expectations of relatively soft summer spend trends on the Strip as evidenced by our weekly room rate survey,” said Joe Greff of J.P. Morgan. “At the end of the day, we believe these results point to a continued uneven recovery on the Las Vegas Strip, which represents no change from prior and more recent views.” Major players in the market include MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) , Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) , Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) .



13,000 – 46,500,000 – 22,500,000 – 8,750,000

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Posted on 29th July 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Four charts that tell you everything you need to know about the American Empire of Dirt are below. While the 1% who run the rigged financial system of this country utilize their high frquency trading super computers to ramp the Dow Jones back up to 13,000 (still 8% below the level of 2007) in an effort to gorge themselves on the carcasses of the middle class, the true picture of our collapsing empire is there to see for anyone with two eyes and a functioning brain. There are 117 million households in this country and 22.3 million of them are on foodstamps. There are only 75 million owner occupied houses in the country and 30% of them have a mortgage loan greater than the home value. That’s 22.5 million households underwater. There are 243 million working age Americans and only 142 million of them working, with 35 million of those only working part-time. At the same time we have 48 million people collecting Social Security retirement and another 8.7 million people collecting Social Security Disability.

We have re-entered recession. Gas and food prices are rising. Europe is about to collapse. China’s fraud of an economy is coming to a halt. Retail sales have imploded. Consumer confidence is in the toilet. New and existing home sales are falling. But CNBC and the Wall Street shills are telling you its the best time to buy.

Are we living in bizarro world?  

BERNANKE DESTROYING LIVES OF SENIOR CITIZENS & BANKRUPTING SOCIAL SECURITY

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Posted on 4th July 2012 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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Bernanke’s Zero Interest Rate Policy has already stolen $400 billion per year from seniors and savers and put it into the pockets of Wall Street bankers. Now, Bruce Krasting reveals that Bernanke’s policy will completely bankrupt Social Security by 2023. I sure hope you 50 year olds weren’t counting on that monthly SS check in 15 years. These are called the unintended consequences of bad decisions and bad policy. Bernanke’s only goal is to keep the existing oligarchs in power and protect their wealth. He doesn’t give a shit about you. They will throw the middle class under the bus when Social Security runs out of money. They’ll declare it was unpredicatable even though demographics and interest rates on bonds are about as predictable as anything on earth. Ben Bernanke is destroying America with his zero interest rate policy and he is being cheered on by Paul Krugman, Obama and the douchebags in Congress.

   

Bernanke – My Goal is to Wreck Social Security

Bruce Krasting's picture

Submitted by Bruce Krastingon 07/04/2012 14:28 -0400

In June of each year the Social Security Trust Fund (SSTF) reinvests a significant portion of its investment portfolio in newly issued Special Issue Treasury Securities. The interest rates on these bonds is set by a formula that was established in 1960. The formula was designed to insulate the SSTF from transitory changes in interest rates by averaging market based bond yields over a three-year period.

Bernanke’s Fed has set interest rates at zero the past four years. In 2012 the 1960′s formula has finally caught up with the SSTF. It got murdered on this year’s rollover.

The following is from the SSA (link). It shows what has matured this year and what new investments have been made. I will be breaking down sections of this report, so don’t get eye strain looking at this:

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Consider the bonds that matured in 2012:

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$135 billion of old bonds matured this year. This money was rolled over into new bonds with a yield of only 1.375%. The average yield on the maturing securities was 5.64%. The drop in yield on the new securities lowers SSA’s income by $5.7B annually. Over the fifteen year term of the investments, that comes to a lumpy $86 billion. It gets worse.

Bernanke has pledged that he will keep interest at zero for a minimum of another two years. The formula used to set interest rates for SSA looks back over the prior three years. Therefore, SSA will be stuck with a terrible return on its investments until at least 2017. I anticipate that the formula will result in still lower investment returns for the next five years, but I’ll conservatively use the rates set this year to evaluate the consequences to SSA.

The following looks at what is maturing at SSA:

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A total of $543 billion of securities with an average yield of 5.6% is coming due in the existing ZIRP window. The reduction in income from the 4.2% drop in yield translates to a nifty $23 billion a year, for fifteen years ($350b). It gets worse.

As a result of the Fed’s extended ZIRP policy, and the SSA’s interest rate setting formula, it is now a certainty that interest income at SSA is going to substantially drop over the coming decade. The problem is that SSA has provided projections for its interest income over this time period that don’t jive with this reality.

From the 2012 SSA report to Congress:

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The SSTF believes it will earn an average of 4% over this period. That is not possible any longer. I calculate that the most SSA could earn is an average of 2.3% (it could be significantly lower). The drop in yield translates to a reduction in income of $535B over the forecast period. That’s a lot of dollars.

Consider again the base case provided by SSA in April. The following compares the size of the trust fund based on SSA’s estimates and my adjustments for what interest income will be (everything else is constant).

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Based on a realistic assessment of interest income at SSA, the trust fund tops out in 2015, its peak value will be ~$2.823B. The SSTF has reported that the TF will top out at $3,061B, and that milestone will not be reached until 2021. Essentially, the train wreck will happen six years earlier then assumed, and the TF will be $250B short. It gets worse.

The other key ingredients in the SS “pie” are tax receipts from workers and the amount of monthly benefit payments (the assumptions used is that GDP growth will average 4%, and unemployment falls to 5.5% -  no recessions over the ten-year horizon). These are not realistic assumptions. This means that once the SSTF hits its peak in 2015, the run off in assets will happen very quickly.

The SSTF has stated that the date in which the TF falls to zero will be 2033. The actual termination date of the TF is much closer than that. It could come as early as 2023.

Anyone who is 55 or older should be worried about this. Based on current law, all SS benefit payments must be cut by (approximately) 25% when the TF is exhausted. This will affect 72 million people. The economic consequences will be severe. The drop in SS transfers translates into a permanent drag on GDP of 2%. In other words, when this happens, the country will be unable to have any significant positive growth for a long time to come.

I know I will get comments from readers who have worked 40 years and paid into SS and now want it back. I tell those folks in advance that I’m sorry, but they will have to accept a cut in benefits. It will happen it about ten-years. Make your plans accordingly. If you don’t like these conclusions, write a letter to Bernanke. It’s well past time that the true consequences of his monetary policies are understood. He’s not just breaking the backs of small savers; he’s killing Social Security.

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Enjoy the fireworks!

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