D’arcy, Iran, Oil

The crazies are at it again: neocons, useful idiots, and the fearful of anything. Not that it will make a difference, but the real history of Iran’s screwing-over for more than a century is worth reflecting on.

William Knox D’Arcy (1849-1917), born at Devon, England and educated at Westminster School, London, came to Australia in 1866 with his family.

They settled in Rockhampton, Queensland where William qualified as a solicitor in 1872. He followed his father in the law and indeed initially worked with him before setting up his own practice. A decade later, three brothers who’d located a potential gold mining claim at Ironstone Mountain came to William D’Arcy for both legal advice and as a potential investor.

A syndicate was formed and mine production commenced, though not fast enough for the Morgan brothers, who sold their piece of the action to the syndicate for £100,000. The mine continued profitable, though claim-jumpers a became a problem that required D’Arcy’s skill at litigation.

D’Arcy had other mining and land interests, one of which had led to his marriage in 1872 to Elena, only daughter of Samuel Birkbeck, mining engineer.

Continue reading “D’arcy, Iran, Oil”

Pearl Harbor Historiography: A Lesson in Academic Housecleaning

By

December 9, 2013

The Establishment Cover-Up Continues

 

Robert Stinnett closes his excellent summary article on Pearl Harbor historiography with these words: “Though the Freedom of Information Act freed the foreknowledge documents from the secretive vaults to the sunlight of the National Archives in 1995, a cottage industry continues to cover up America’s foreknowledge of Pearl Harbor.” Cottage industry, indeed! This cottage industry is the entire professional guild of salaried historians.

Pearl Harbor’s Establishment historiography remains as secure in its tenured cocoon as it was when I began college in 1959. American history textbooks are as free from the truth about Roosevelt’s deliberate provocation of Japan, and his advance knowledge of Pearl Harbor, as they were in 1943. Mr. Stinnett does not have a Ph.D., nor is he employed as a history instructor. He was therefore in a position to tell the truth. This was equally true of journalist George Morgenstern, whose 1947 book on Pearl Harbor was the first to put the story together in one detailed volume. The historical guild paid no attention to Morgenstern. We shall see if it pays attention to Stinnett. I strongly doubt that the reception will be either favorable or widespread.

A week ago, I sent a letter to a group of my subscribers. It provided background on the issues raised by Mr. Stinnett. I made this point, in the context of how intellectual guilds operate. They adopt a three-phase position on a controversial new idea.

  1. The story isn’t true.
  2. The story is true, but so what?
  3. We always knew it was true.

I then illustrated this with the historiography of Pearl Harbor. Here is what I wrote.

* * * * * * * *

Consider the conservatives’ account of Roosevelt’s advance warning of the Japanese attack in late 1941. When George Morgenstern wrote Pearl Harbor: The Story of a Secret War, only right-wing Devin-Adair would publish it (1947). The book was ridiculed by academic historians as being a pack of unsubstantiated opinions written by a mere journalist — and a Chicago Tribune journalist at that. When the premier liberal historian, Charles A. Beard, said much the same thing the next year in President Roosevelt and the Coming of the War (Yale University Press), he was dismissed by his colleagues as senile, and he permanently lost his reputation. When the premier American diplomatic historian, Charles C. Tansill, said it again in 1952 in his Back Door to War (Regnery), he, too, was shoved down the liberals’ memory hole.

Today, the revisionist account of Pearl Harbor is more widely accepted, and is gaining ground fast. Another journalist, Robert B. Stinnett, recently found the “smoking gun” — an 8-page 1940 memo by a lieutenant commander in the navy on how to get Japan to attack us, a memo that Roosevelt adopted, point by point. His book is titled, Day of Deceit: The Truth About FDR and Pearl Harbor(Free Press, 1999). Stinnett served under a young George Bush during World War II. His book is the capstone to his career.

The liberals are now moving to stage 2: “The story is true, but so what?” Stinnett’s book argues that Roosevelt basically did the right thing in luring the Japanese to attack Pearl Harbor. This attack overcame America’s anti-interventionists, who had 88% of the people behind them in 1940. Pearl Harbor got us into the War in Europe.

It didn’t, of course. Hitler’s suicidal declaration of war on the United States on the following Thursday is what got us into the European war.

It will be a long time before liberal historians get to stage 3: “We always knew it was true.” They will not admit how they smeared the reputations of first-rate historians who told the truth early, and then for the next fifty years used their power over graduate schools and professional academic journals to screen out the truth. The issue was power, and liberals respect it and use it.

* * * * * * * * * *

What happened to Beard sent a warning to any aspiring young grad student who might have been tempted to follow in Beard’s revisionist path. Beard was at the end of a long and distinguished career. He was the only scholar ever to be elected as president of both the American Historical Association and the American Political Science Association. But his academic achievements gained him no mercy when he broke ranks on Pearl Harbor. James J. Martin, the premier revisionist historian after Harry Elmer Barnes died in 1968, in 1981 provided an account of what happened.

Beard not only infuriated the influential supporters of Roosevelt by his insistence that the continuous deception by the President in making his steady moves toward war while endlessly talking about his peacefulness (few were allowed to forget his pre-election promise in 1940 never to send Americans off to a war outside U.S. borders) was in essentials, as Leighton described it, “completely to undermine constitutional government and set the stage for a Caesar” (Beard’s famed peroration on pp. 582-584 of his Epilogue to President Roosevelt is required reading in this context.) He had opened up another sore while writing his book with a famed article in the Saturday Evening Post for October 4, 1947, “Who’s to Write the History of the War?,” in which he revealed that the Rockefeller Foundation, working with its alter ego, the Council on Foreign Relations, had provided $139,000 for the latter to spend in underwriting an official-line history of how the war had come about, in an effort to defeat at the start the same kind of “debunking” historical campaign which had immediately followed the end of World War I. Beard complained of inaccessibility of various documents, which he was sure would be fully available to anyone doing an Establishment version of the wartime past, convinced that these would be sat on as ‘classified’ for a generation or more. . . .

So it was understandable that the following February, two months before the publication of President Roosevelt, when the National Institute of Arts and Letters awarded Beard their gold medal for the best historical work published in the preceding decade, that his erstwhile liberal admirers would reach the end of their tolerance. The highlight of their protest was the resignation in rage from the Institute by one of its most influential members, Lewis Mumford, accompanied by abuse of Beard so extreme that it led to a memorable chiding to Mumford from Harry Elmer Barnes in a 11/2 column letter to the editors of the Chicago Tribune, published 11 February 1948. But the attack on Beard had barely begun.

With the publication of President Roosevelt two months later, in April, the denunciation of Beard became a veritable industry, and the most eminent of the Roosevelt academic defenders were recruited to contribute to the character assassination. Probably the most outrageous was that of Harvard’s Samuel Eliot Morison, Roosevelt’s handpicked choice to write a history of American naval operations in World War II, and even elevated to the rank of Admiral in recognition of his labors. But the outline of the total campaign aimed at Beard is substantial, extensively documented in the later editions of Barnes’s booklet The Struggle Against the Historical Blackout (especially 6th thru. 9th).

Beard died in 1949. His book on Roosevelt was allowed — a mild word, given the circumstances — to go out of print almost immediately, and it was never reprinted. Maybe the Web will resurrect it. I hope so.

The final product of the Council on Foreign Relations’ investment of $139,000 in 1946 — a lot of money in 1946 — was the standard Establishment history of the coming of the war, written by William L. Langer and S. Everett Gleason, The Challenge to Isolation: The World Crisis of 1937-1940 and American Foreign Policy (1952). It was still the standard account two decades later. Its perspective remains dominant on campus today. Langer was a professor of history at Harvard. So was Gleason — medieval history — until he moved to Washington after Pearl Harbor, to join the Office of Strategic Services (OSS), the precursor of the CIA. He later became the official historian of the State Department. Establishment enough for you? (The other standard book was Herbert Feis’s Road to Pearl Harbor (1950). He had served as the State Department’s Advisor for International Economic Affairs.) Yes, the victors always write the history books, but when the historians are actually policy-setting participants in the war, the words “court history” take on new meaning.

I read Admiral Kimmel’s Story (Regnery, 1955) in 1958. That same year, I read anti-Roosevelt journalist John T. Flynn’s The Roosevelt Myth (Devin-Adair, 1948). At age 16, I became a World War II revisionist.

In 1963, I had a conversation with Thomas Thalken, who later became the librarian of the Herbert Hoover Presidential Library. We were then both employed by a short-lived think tank, the Center for American Studies. He was its librarian. I was a summer intern, fresh out of college. He had earned a master’s degree in history under Tansill a decade earlier. He told me that Tansill had advised him not to earn a Ph.D. in history. Tansill had said that anyone who taught the truth about America’s entry into World War II would see his career end before it even began. Thalken took his advice.

This is why there are no tenured World War II revisionists who write in this still-taboo and well-policed field. The guild screened them out, beginning in the early 1950′s. Beard and Tansill by 1960 were remembered only for their non-WWII revisionist writings. Barnes was forgotten. Martin — in my view, the most accomplished American revisionist historian — never became known on campus. Anthony Kubek spent his career on the academic fringes. What the guild did to Barnes, Beard, Tansill at the end of their careers, and to Martin at the beginning of his, posted a warning sign: Dead End.

I went on to earn a Ph.D. in American history, but I never did teach in my field. Neither did Bruce Bartlett, who wrote The Pearl Harbor Cover-Up (Arlington House, 1978). (Our paths crossed briefly in 1976: we were both on Congressman Ron Paul’s Washington staff.) Bartlett did not earn a Ph.D. Instead, as a supply-sider on Jack Kemp’s Congressional staff, he wrote his way into economic policy-making.

This is typical of the handful of WWII revisionists in the post-Tansill era. Most of them never made it onto a campus, and of the few who did, they did not teach WWII revisionism. The WWII revisionist books of 1947-55 were out of print by 1960. They remain out of print.

In 1966, an aged Barnes wrote a brief introduction to an article that appeared in a small-circulation journal published by libertarian pioneer Robert Lefevre, Rampart Journal. At the end of his introduction, Barnes wrote: “We should be able to look foreword to something more honest and dependable in the quarter of a century between now and the fiftieth anniversary of Pearl Harbor.” Nice dream; no fulfillment. World War II revisionism remains a fringe movement of non-certified, non-subsidized historians.

Conclusion

In 1958, the only book critical of Franklin Roosevelt’s domestic policies and his foreign policies was Flynn’s book. In 1958, it was out of print. In the Year of Our Lord, 2000, it remains the only book critical of Roosevelt’s domestic and foreign policies.

We haven’t come a long way, baby.

Things are beginning to change for the better. The Web has begun to chip away at every academic guild’s monopoly. What is taught in college classrooms no longer has the same authority that it possessed in 1960. But until the subsidizing of higher education by the state ends, and until the state-licensed accreditation oligopoly ends or is overcome by new, “price-competitive technologies,” it will remain an uphill battle for Pearl Harbor revisionists in academia.

The Social Security Story

Where better to start than with the horse’s mouth … so to speak.

SSA site

The 1936 Government Pamphlet on Social Security

To Employees of Industrial and Business Establishments

FACTORIES-SHOPS-MINES-MILLS-STORES-OFFICES AND OTHER PLACES OF BUSINESS

Beginning November 24, 1936, the United States Government will set up a Social Security account for you, if you are eligible. To understand your obligations, rights, and benefits you should read the following general explanation.

THERE is now a law in this country which will give about 26 million working people something to live on when they are old and have stopped working. This law, which gives other benefits, too, was passed last year by Congress and is called the Social Security Act.

Under this law the United States Government will send checks every month to retired workers, both men and women, after they have passed their 65th birthday and have met a few simple requirements of the law.

WHAT THIS MEANS TO YOU

THIS means that if you work in some factory, shop, mine, mill, store, office, or almost any other kind of business or industry, you will be earning benefits that will come to you later on. From the time you are 65 years old, or more, and stop working, you will get a Government check every month of your life, if you have worked some time (one day or more) in each of any 5 years after 1936, and have earned during that time a total of $2,000 or more.

The checks will come to you as a right. You will get them regardless of the amount of property or income you may have. They are what the law calls “Old-Age Benefits” under the Social Security Act. If you prefer to keep on working after you are 65, the monthly checks from the Government will begin coming to you whenever you decide to retire.

The Amount of Your Checks

How much you will get when you are 65 years old will depend entirely on how much you earn in wages from your industrial or business employment between January 1, 1937, and your 65th birthday. A man or woman who gets good wages and has a steady job most of his or her life can get as much as $85 a month for life after age 65. The least you can get in monthly benefits, if you come under the law at all, is $10 a month.

IF YOU ARE NOW YOUNG

Suppose you are making $25 a week and are young enough now to go on working for 40 years. If you make an average of $25 a week for 52 weeks in each year, your check when you are 65 years old will be $53 a month for the rest of your life. If you make $50 a week, you will get $74.50 a month for the rest of your life after age 65.

IF YOU ARE NOW MIDDLE-AGED

But suppose you are about 55 years old now and have 10 years to work before you are 65. Suppose you make only $15 a week on the average. When you stop work at age 65 you will get a check for $19 each month for the rest of your life. If you make $25 a week for 10 years, you will get a little over $23 a month from the Government as long as you live after your 65th birthday.

IF YOU SHOULD DIE BEFORE AGE 65

If you should die before you begin to get your monthly checks, your family will get a payment in cash, amounting to 3.5 cents on every dollar of wages you have earned after 1936. If, for example, you should die at age 64, and if you had earned $25 a week for 10 years before that time, your family would receive $455. On tile other hand, if you have not worked enough to get the regular monthly checks by the time you are 65, you will get a lump sum, or if you should die your family or estate would get a lump sum. The amount of this, too, will be 3.5 cents on every dollar of wages you earn after 1936.

TAXES

THE same law that provides these old-age benefits for you and other workers, sets up certain new taxes to be paid to the United States Government. These taxes are collected by the Bureau of Internal Revenue of the U. S. Treasury Department, and inquiries concerning them should be addressed to that bureau. The law also creates an “Old-Age Reserve Account” in the United States Treasury, and Congress is authorized to put into this reserve account each year enough money to provide for the monthly payments you and other workers are to receive when you are 65.

YOUR PART OF THE TAX

The taxes called for in this law will be paid both by your employer and by you. For the next 3 years you will pay maybe 15 cents a week, maybe 25 cents a week, maybe 30 cents or more, according to what you earn. That is to say, during the next 3 years, beginning January 1, 1937, you will pay 1 cent for every dollar you earn, and at the same time your employer will pay 1 cent for every dollar you earn, up to $3,000 a year. Twenty-six million other workers and their employers will be paying at the same time.

After the first 3 year–that is to say, beginning in 1940–you will pay, and your employer will pay, 1.5 cents for each dollar you earn, up to $3,000 a year. This will be the tax for 3 years, and then, beginning in 1943, you will pay 2 cents, and so will your employer, for every dollar you earn for the next 3 years. After that, you and your employer will each pay half a cent more for 3 years, and finally, beginning in 1949, twelve years from now, you and your employer will each pay 3 cents on each dollar you earn, up to $3,000 a year. That is the most you will ever pay.

YOUR EMPLOYER’S PART OF THE TAX

The Government will collect both of these taxes from your employer. Your part of the tax will be taken out of your pay. The Government will collect from your employer an equal amount out of his own funds.

This will go on just the same if you go to work for another employer, so long as you work in a factory, shop, mine, mill, office, store, or other such place of business. (Wages earned in employment as farm workers, domestic workers in private homes, Government workers, and on a few other kinds of jobs are not subject to this tax.)

OLD-AGE RESERVE ACCOUNT

Meanwhile, the Old-Age Reserve fund in the United States Treasury is drawing interest, and the Government guarantees it will never earn less than 3 percent. This means that 3 cents will be added to every dollar in the fund each year.

Maybe your employer has an old-age pension plan for his employees. If so, the Government’s old-age benefit plan will not have to interfere with that. The employer can fit his plan into the Government plan.

What you get from the Government plan will always be more than you have paid in taxes and usually more than you can get for yourself by putting away the same amount of money each week in some other way.


Note.–“Wages” and “employment” wherever used in the foregoing mean wages and employment as defined in the Social Security Act.

So that was the original plan.
Maybe it seemed like a good idea at the time. Optimistic? Good intentions? You know where that road leads.
In 1940, then, about 42 workers began paying for every one retiree. Yes, of course! how can you be saving for yourself when the scheme started and began to cover those who came before you???

The first SS retiree:
The first monthly payment was issued on January 31, 1940 to Ida May Fuller of Ludlow, Vermont. In 1937, 1938 and 1939 she paid a total of $24.75 into the Social Security System. Her first check was for $22.54. After her second check, Fuller already had received more than she contributed over the three-year period. She lived to be 100 and collected a total of $22,888.92.
By 1950, the ratio of workers to retirees was 16 to one. Today there are less than three.
As of 2011, the Social Security trustee projects that SS benefits exceeding taxes collected.
In any case, the myth of the ‘lockbox’ is just that. The current surplus of taxes is spent by Congress. At the same time, the Treasury Dept. issues illiquid government securities to the Social Security account. An IOU.

It gets worse …
In a U.S. Supreme Court case, Helvering v. Davis (1937), the court held that Social Security is not an insurance program, saying:

“The proceeds of both (employee and employer) taxes are to be paid into the Treasury like internal revenue taxes generally, and are not earmarked in any way.”

In 1960, the Supreme Court decreed in Flemming v. Nestor that “entitlement to Social Security benefits is not a contractual right.
Health, Education and Welfare Secretary (Arthur Sherwood) Flemming stated in his brief:
“The contribution exacted under the Social Security plan is a true tax. It is not comparable to a premium promising the payment of an annuity commencing at a designated age.”

In 1997, Paul Krugman wrote for the Boston Review:

“Social Security is structured from the point of view of the recipients as if it were an ordinary retirement plan: what you get out depends on what you put in. So it does not look like a redistributionist scheme.
“In practice it has turned out to be strongly redistributionist, but only because of its Ponzi game aspect, in which each generation takes more out than it put in.
“Well, the Ponzi game will soon be over, thanks to changing demographics, so that the typical recipient henceforth will get only about as much as he or she put in (and today’s young may well get less than they put in).”

Walter E. Williams, economist, quoted by Laurence Vance in 2011:

“a man reaching age 65 in the year 2000 could expect to receive $71,000 more in government transfer payments (of which the largest amount is Social Security) than he paid in taxes. But a 20-year-old man who entered the workforce in the year 2000 can expect to pay $312,000 more in taxes than he will ever receive in benefits.”

Form ssa-7005-sm-si (the summary of your lifetime SS payments) might be worth your time to check.
Given the outcome of the GFC and the case law cited above, you would be correct in having a concern about your retirement, if it is based solely on the government.
And after all that, the only thing to add is: Medicare unfunded projections are worse.
Math is hard. Cruel, even. Also it is reality.

 

(this is an excerpt from my Kindle book, “Embrace the Doom”

take note, Muck About … )

Embrace the Doom: Joseph Elkhorne: Amazon.com: Kindle Store

 

Money in America – the Publication

Money in America – the Publication

 

 

When this project began, it came from one random thought: that few had ever seen a U.S. silver certificate. The first post became many.

The writing involved research and discovery; I learned new things along the way, went on tangents, refined the narrative and passed it along. Once finished, it still felt incomplete. So I collated all the posts into one document and put it on Scribd.

Your suggestions led to Amazon and I had quite another project in mind about there. A while back someone had mentioned CreateSpace, aha.

https://www.createspace.com/Products/Book/

The good news is, there’s much information there; the bad news is, I’ve seen better organized web sites. After several hours of poking around various sections, I understood the phrase, “A little learning is a dangerous thing.” Having acquired an associate diploma, Professional Writing and Editing (with particular focus on print layout) I left with more questions on their process.

I’d looked at some of the topics and followed some threads in the community forums. The following day, I registered and decided the only way to see how it worked was to have a go, and like Indiana Jones, make it up as I went along. Despite my misapprehension from the website (Overview / Cover / Interior etc.) after the administrative bump, you do start with the interior content.

Well, it was far easier than I expected. The ‘Create a book’ button takes to a login page, from there, a multi-step process begins. Enter a title, fill out various form info – including the droll ‘reporting to the IRS’ topic (Big Brother is everywhere!) and follow the creating steps in sequence. There are options along the way, including for-pay professional help. On your own, you can exit at any stage and return to that step later.

Early on, you have the option of taking the free ISBN number provided by CreateSpace (such a deal!) But there is flexibility if others require another way.

There’s plenty of good advice from other users in the community. There are various industry standard templates to use in word processing software. You will need to know some details about formats, both text and graphics.

Both of the images I’d used were snagged from the web and caused the one autocheck error in the test of my PDF file: CS process wants 300 dpi for images and typically from the web one has 72 dpi. A simple matter to convert.

As I run Ubuntu linux and the Open Office suite, and the Gimp (Graphic Image Manipulation Program) a couple of tweaks fixed the problem. (Both of those programs have Windows versions, btw.) And with OO, I can save as .doc format or alternates and also export a PDF which CS prefers. You will select a book size (aka, trim size – page dimensions) this is where the template comes in, and there are various industry-standard sizes, in both plain and formatted types.

As mentioned, your images need to be 300 dpi (which I had not checked aforehand) and the PDF must have the fonts embedded. There is a tickbox in Open Office to do this – embedding a font insures ‘what you see is what you get’ as there are untold numbers and styles of fonts.

Once the process determines your file is acceptable, there is an Interior Reviewer to inspect. This gives you an online squiz and the ability to spot mistakes, a final proof read.

If the ‘robot’ has found no errors, it’s on to the next step: a final check, apparently by a real person, and an email will be sent confirming the digital proof is acceptable. And you can download a copy. Onscreen it’s suggested you can go on to the next step, which is the Cover Designer. There are five pages of styles, and optional images from their gallery.

Once you select a type, you can modify, include an author image, back cover text, style and colour for front title and author name, a lot of options.

I made my choices, and ‘go’. A confirmation email will be sent within 48 hours.

OK. From the time I asked a last question in a forum on Saturday the 30th, to starting and completing the project was but a few hours. The confirmation “Proof is ready to order” was here on 1 July. Yay! I immediately opted for five copies (the max at cost, $2.55) and 48 minutes later, the email confirming the proofs were shipped. Woah!

From a file to a book in under a day? “We have the technology!”

And surely the dinosaurs trying to prop up a 20th century business model here and now are Very Scared. By comparison, in 1993 I offered a project to a business publisher in Melbourne. Not exactly their area, but no one else in Australia had published anything on computer bulletin boards. They went for it. Months later, it was ready (all the delays due to them.) Cover price, $20 and my cut, $1,50 a unit – but you had to chase them twice a year to get the royalty checks.

Not the best experience, but it was good having a book in hand, even better when it ended up on university recommended reading lists.

I haven’t run the final figures for the Amazon book but the rough example I put through earlier was

For a 184 page black and white book, you set your USD list price at $8.99. A customer purchases your book on Amazon.com and a book is printed to fulfill that order.

Sales Channel % = $3.60

Fixed Charge = $0.85

Per Page Charge = $2.20

Your Royalty = $2.34

My later check for my project yielded “@ $8.95 for MIA, royalty $2.82 Amazon.com, $4.61 CS eStore.

Returning to CS, there was one more step, they offer the option to link to Kindle Direct Publishing. CreateSpace is part of the Amazon group of companies. And the completion of their create process offers the option of going to Kindle Direct Publishing. KDP. Maybe … I’ll just come back here later, and opted to find out more my own way.At that point, CS offers download of the book cover and the digital proof PDF but cautions that KDP does not like PDF. *shrug*

So I then delve into their requirements of formats. And look at their forums. Oh, my, why do things get so complicated?

CreateSpace is ‘part of Amazon’ but you need to register with them. With KDP, you use your existing Amazon account to sign in. Hmmm …Here’s the KDP home page:

https://kdp.amazon.com/self-publishing/signin

And a link to a “Getting Started” page with a link to a “Do It Yourself” option. OK. This offers building your book for Kindle, and a second link for Mac.

The first, being Mcrosoft-centric … argh! No thanks, I don’t need a Kindle Edition even if it IS free, because I don’t have a Kindle! So I poke around the website for info on what format they really really prefer and can I do it their way?!

Back to the home page > Prepare Your Book > Types of Formats. Uh huh.

KDP accepts most DOC files for eBook conversion;”

Long story short after much travail. Like the old commercial said, “Oils ain’t oils, Sol.” No, some .doc files are more equal than others, especially if they are ~proprietary~ (sneer quotes intentional!)

And KDP also accepts ePub, Plain Text, .mobi or .prc, HTML, Rich Text Format … and PDF (but maybe only if it Adobe-centric(?) Or not or WTF?

At that point, it’s another “suck it and see”.

What was so easy with CS is grrrr! time and it’s getting late and I plunge ahead. More forms, cluttered, and wanting information already produced for the book version but alas, it’s flash time – c’n’p. With the preliminaries out of the way, it’s upload the interior. I save a .doc but it no like. I export an HTML but no … and I’m searching more ~help~ on the website. Near as I can figure, the preferred HTML (if it conforms to the Supported Tags) would be generated as a Filtered HTML from Microsoft Word.

WTF is that?

Wasn’t the whole hassle of computerization in the early days about interchanceability and compatibility? Like some unknown genius said a long time ago: “The nice thing about computer standards is, there’s so many of them.”

Now, if I could understand what it is they REALLY wanted, I could probably build it, made by hand. Or I could just give up and use a Microsoft box.

But I tried various conversions, even HTML and inspecting the source and see the data for the two images but no. Dammit! Oh wot the hell, I throw my CS .pdf at it and the computer seems to hang … bloody hell … but I find there’s an alert box had popped up about the previous attempted upload, only it’s under another window. Whimper. X that. Hit the upload again … I see no activity and suddenly, Conversion completed successfully.

I should add that on this process page were several form entries that disappeared more than once. Obviously the geeks that write the code here need some lessons from the CS crowd. But magically, it seems that I’m moving along. And I can view the ‘proof’ in a little window and begin and suddenly I am passed on to another page and it’s all done. WTF? Why, how?

And I didn’t have the option of downloading the completed file, probably because I don’t have a registered Kindle. Nor could I read it anyway, one of their pages said so. Oh, there are free Kindle readers for PC and one for Mac.

Argh. And I see the first email next morning, rec’d 04:25:21, “The book “Money in America” you recently submitted to KDP has been published to the Kindle Store and is already available* for readers to purchase here.

So, yesterday I Google for linux kindle reader and … WTF”

Search returns with some mentions of open source approaches and also:

https://read.amazon.com/about

for the Kindle Cloud Reader.

Kindle Cloud Reader runs in your web browser but looks and acts just like an app—and you can continue reading even if you lose your internet connection

Another anomaly from the site … several pages refer to the ~fact~ that kindle’s don’t handle tables. But the specs for the new, improved models state that table rendering has been added, yay.

Well, I haven’t actually seen my finished Kindle product yet. If it looks like a dog’s breakfast, I’m Han Solo: “It’s not my fault!”

Really, the takehome lesson from this experience is, the problem had to do with two images in my original. And yes, a couple of minor flaws by using my own template which was designed with “white space” … i.e., more readable on the screen”. Oh well, trial-and-error (rinse and repeat) worked for Edison.

I’m sure the next project will go much easier.

Money in America — Epilogue

 

Our last chapter ended with the beginning of the end –or are we at a way station to a new beginning of the story of America?

This saga began with one thought: the realization that few had seen one of these:

U.S. silver certificate

Thus began a journey of exploration. I began with what I knew and added what more I learned along the way. The project became a chronological narrative more than a history – thus, no cites or even sites as a scholarly work would be expected to provide. Rather, it’s an overview, a guide for others to pursue areas of interest.


Sources

Google got a workout, as did the ‘Lazy Man’s Encyclopedia’ (Wikipedia) which is a good starting point. As Mulder would say, “Trust no one” so cross-referencing is a good modus operandi. It’s amazing how many professionals are sloppy about quotes. And some famous ones ‘everybody knows’ just aren’t so.

This – http://www.snopes.com/ is a useful tool.

Some of the books that were piled up by the desk:

 

The Wealth of Nations” – Adam Smith

A People’s History of the United States” – Howard Zinn

A History of Money and Banking in the United States” – Murray Rothbard

33 Questions about American History You’re Not Supposed to Ask” – Thomas E. Woods, Jr.

The Real Lincoln” – Thomas J. DeLorenzo

Lincoln Unmasked” – Thomas J. DiLorenzo

The Creature from Jekyll Island” – G. Edward Griffin

Your Money or Your Life” – Sheldon Richman

The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal” — Robert P. Murphy, Ph.D.

Resurgence of the Warfare State” – Robert Higgs

FDR’s Folly” – Jim Powell

The Forgotton Man” – Amity Shlaes

Human Smoke” – Nicholson Baker

Attention Deficit Democracy” – James Bovard

The Irregulars” – Jennet Conant

Generations”, “The Fourth Turning”, and “Millennials Rising”, William Strauss & Neil Howe

… and there were more. A dozen or so from the ‘Nixon shock’ into the present. As well, countless essays, articles and reviews of the aforementioned authors available online.

Trivia

The United States Treasury’s processing and issuance of paper currency began in 1861.

From 1863 to 1935, National Bank Notes were issued in many denominations by thousands of banks throughout the country and in U.S. territories during three charter periods.

As of January 1, 1929, there were more than 7,600 National banks in existence.

The chartering of banks and administrative control over the issuance of National Bank Notes were the responsibility of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

The design of 1863 U.S. currency incorporated a Treasury seal, the fine line engraving necessary for the difficult-to-counterfeit intaglio printing, intricate geometric lathe work patterns, and distinctive linen paper with embedded red and blue fibers.

Gold Certificates were issued by the Department of the Treasury from 1865against gold coin and bullion deposits and were circulated until 1933.

The Department of the Treasury established the United States Secret Service in 1865 to control counterfeits, at that time amounting to one-third of circulated currency.

In 1866, National Bank Notes, backed by U.S. government securities, became predominant

The Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing in 1910 assumed all currency production functions, including engraving, printing, and processing.

Paper currency was first issued with “In God We Trust” as required by Congress in 1955. The inscription appears on all currency Series 1963 and beyond.

On November 5–6, 2010, Ben Bernanke stayed on Jekyll Island to commemorate the 100-year anniversary of this original meeting.

…the Federal Reserve has similarities to the country’s first attempt at central banking, and in that regard it owes an intellectual debt to Alexander Hamilton.” – Minneapolis Fed

By December 23, 1913, when President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law, it stood as a classic example of compromise —a decentralized central bank that balanced the competing interests of private banks and populist sentiment.

Benjamin Strong, the influential Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a key protagonist in Friedman and Schwartz’s narrative, had strong reservations about using monetary policy to try to arrest the stock market boom. (speech by Ben S. Bernanke, Chicago, Ill. November 8, 2002)

The silver certificates authorized by the Silver Purchase Act of 1934 were redeemable for silver held by the Treasury. At a market price above $1.29, a profit could be made by redeeming the silver certificates, receiving 0.77 ounce of silver from the Treasury and then selling the silver. In addition, at a market price above $1.38, a profit could be made by melting U.S. circulating coinage for its silver content.

The Government began a program to demonetize silver. Public Law 88-36, which repealed the Silver Purchase Act of 1934 and authorized the printing of Federal Reserve Notes not redeemable in silver, was passed in mid-1963.

The Coinage Act of 1965 eliminated the use of silver in dimes and quarters and reduced the silver content of half dollars. In 1967, silver coins were withdrawn from circulation, and holders of silver certificates were given 1 year, until June 24, 1968, to redeem the certificates for silver.

James Warburg was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He gained some notice in a February 17, 1950, appearance before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations in which he said, “We shall have world government, whether or not we like it. The question is only whether world government will be achieved by consent or by conquest.”

That’s all, folks!

Money in America — Part Eight

 

In our last dramatic episode, we saw America ready for war … with British help, looked at a war economy from the vantage point of Main Street, and touched on post-war conditions.

 

World War Two loose ends

The behind-the-scenes activities of the British Security Coordination (officially know as the British Passport Control Office in NYC) not only derailed the ‘isolationist’ element of the American public, it also succeeded in deposing Vice President Henry Wallace as FDR’s running mate in 1944.

One factor was Wallace’s vision of a post-war world which conflicted with Churchill and others, hoping to retain their stature as a world power. Recall that Great Britain insisted on returning to a gold standard at the pre-WW1 value of the pound. During WW2 years, they feared the growth and ambition of their American cousins. Perhaps the most significant area of disagreement was the role of civil aviation and who would claim the lion’s share of world domination.

Juan Trippe’s Pan American had received a $260 million war contract to build some 16 airfields in South America for military use. One provision of this contract granted the reversion of “$38 millions worth of work” to Pan Am and exclusive use of these facilities after the war. The final cost was estimated upwards of one billion dollars …

Pan Am also had their Boeing 314s (the Clipper flying boat) taken over by the government as they were the only existing aircraft that could carry large payloads across an ocean. The airline had other contracts, ferrying bombers and other aircraft, and flew all up more than 90 million miles for the U.S. Government.

Perhaps one of the factors that drew Churchill’s approval of Harry Truman was that the latter disliked Pan Am’s monopoly in South America.

Most of this aviation war work fell under the auspices of the Army Air Transport Command. What started in wartime as a very small scale operation ended up larger than the entire United States commercial airline establishment. The British were right to worry about their future.

(A slight digression)

The Tokyo Skytower, world’s largest freestanding tower, opened on 21 May 2012. This is a significant rhyme … and Skytower’s “curves and arches reflect[ing] a traditional Samurai sword” katana imagery offers interesting symbolism.

Although the first skyscraper was built in Chicago in 1884-5, the great push for really big building occurred even as the Great Depression unfolded.

  • NYC – Chrysler Building, 1930, Empire State building, 1931.
  • Chicago – Palmolive building, Carbide and Carbon building, and Medinah Club building, 1929.
  • Cincinnati – AT&T building, 1929, Carew Tower, 1930, and Times-Star building, 1933.
  • Kansas City, Missouri – Power and Light building, 1931, and Jackson Country Courthouse, 1934.
  • Hartford, Conn. – Southern New England Telephone building, 1931.
  • Providence, RI – County Courthouse, 1930.
  • Philadelphia, PA – Lewis Tower, 1929, and Ritz-Carlton , 1931.
  • Pittsburgh, PA – Gulf Building, 1932.

Just a few examples then and here we are now in another similar era with tall, taller, tallest buildings springing up around the globe. Do you feel lucky, punk?

The Post-War Economy

In a fine example of linear thinking, the pundits looked forward by looking backward. Some remembered the Bonus Army. Others anticipated a new depression … “the greatest and swiftest disappearance of markets in all history” … “insecurity, instability, and maladjustment” … “the infections of a postwar disillusionment” … “a declining birthrate” …

Fearing a thinning population and collapsing economy, the U.S. Government began planning a massive campaign, involving two hundred organizations, to provide work relief on the scale of the original New Deal.

It wasn’t necessary.

The Fourth Turning, pg. 146

With vast examples of wartime spending, many economists feared the subsequent drop in military spending would see the economy revert to depression hard times. Not so – a dozen years of thwarted consumer demand assisted strong economic growth. The 1940 GNP of $200 billion in 1940 went to $300 billion by 1950. And a decade later, GNP surpassed $500 billion.

Rebuilding Europe via the Marshall Plan aid and U.S. exports certainly was a factor. And an ‘Iron Curtain’ descending over eastern Europe supplanted the Nazi menace with a Soviet one and the Cold War was underway. Cue the MIC.

Also, the union movement threw off the government shackles imposed by the war effort. 1945 ended with automobile, electrical and steel strikes.

A gathering of elites from allied nations had met at Bretton Woods in 1944 and established a regulated method of exchange rates, referenced to the U.S. gold backed dollar – and thus the US$ became the world reserve currency.

Whether or not it’s true that the U.S. held 80% of world gold reserves then, “he who owns the gold makes the rules.” As of 2010, the total of gold reserves was 30,807 tonnes and the U.S. is said to have 8,133.tonnes, even if it’s now “only tradition” …

“After World War II, the United States held over 20,000 tons of gold in its reserves much of it having come from Europe to pay for war supplies and arms.”

Alex Stanczyk – Beijing China Jan. 7th, 2012 speech

Businessmen, industrialists, entrepreneurs, all demonized in the 30s and co-opted in the 40s saw a ‘sea change’ in attitudes. Having assisted in victory, albeit via government spending, the post-war years saw new attitudes welcoming progress. And innovation. An industrial conference certainly embraced innovation – and even depression-era experiments like television quickly became a reality that grew. Radar and microwaves turned from war to civilian use. The potential of computers was discussed; the only one willing to take a chance was Thomas J. Watson, who said he would probably lose money but it was worth exploring.

As quickly as Detroit factories had converted to war work, they changed back even faster. The first 1946 civilian cars rolled off the lines before year’s end.

In the farm sector, increased productivity led to agricultural overproduction. Small farms were losing competitive ability and the 1947 farm workforce of 7.9 million people declined over the next forty years to less than half that. Farming grew to become Big Agra.

Nothing goes up forever – business eased off from expansionary investment. President Truman responded to an eleven month slump beginning in November 1948, shortly after his “Fair Deal” economic reforms. Coincidentally the Federal Reserve had initiated a period of monetary tightening. Also, there was the new, improved threat of the Cold War – and Truman reinstituted the draft. Economists had forecast a much worse period, deflation, gloom and doom. The GNP declined 1.5%, consumerism had lessened and unemployment went up to 7.9%. A little deficit spending wouldn’t hurt …

The face of the urban workplace environment changed, too. By the 1950s more service works would be counted than those who produced goods. By 1956, more white-collars were employed than blue-collars. Unions won their first long-term employment contracts, with generous benefits …

Business activity has expanded greatly since the spring of 1946 in response to the stimulation of a large postwar civilian demand for goods and services. As a result of this increased activity, as well as of advancing prices and a sharp reduction in corporate taxes, business profits after taxes reached new high levels by the end of 1946. In this period expenditures by business for plant, equip- ment, and inventories have been in unprecedented volume. In order to finance the great increase in assets, business in general has invested the largest annual volume of retained earnings in history, has drawn upon its large wartime accumulation of cash and Government securities, has borrowed from banks, and has floated new issues of securities.

Federal Reserve Bulletin, May 1947

The Fed also noted that the dollar volume of sales in 1946 was 75 percent greater that the previous peacetime peak year of 1929. Wartime profits for business contributed to unusually high levels of plants and equipment spending – aided by a large volume of investment funds. Banks with large holdings of short-term Treasuries could sell or pledge against advances from the Federal Reserve and thus increase their loan portfolios. Special tax credits adjustment wartime taxes for business reduced the 1946 tax liabilities.

Wartime financing by the twelve Federal Reserve Banks, after statutory dividends to the member banks in 1947 yielded a net earning of 60 million dollars. About 90 percent was paid into the Treasury.

 

The Rise of Suburbia

William Levitt addressed the problem of affordable home ownership first in New York and four other locations. A generation accustomed to ‘government issue’ found the identical ‘cookie-cutter’ houses acceptable, especially since they were cheaper than renting. Assembly-line production techniques in building houses for the first time proved effective.

Levitt & Sons and other builders were guaranteed by the V.A. and FHA which benefitted veterans significantly. The first homes were offered in March, 1949, even as the administration fought deflation.

The typical blue collar family had an option for better living also.

http://tigger.uic.edu/~pbhales/Levittown/Life%20magazine%20images%201949-/Bernard%20Levey%20family%20in%20front%20of%20original%20Cape%20Cod.jpg

Levittown, New York was the model of an ideal American suburb. It would take decades for these modest homes to morph into McMansions all across the nation – but once a paradigm shift has begun, it must stay the course.

The symbiosis of automobiles for Everyman as well as tidy little suburban homes was irresistible. Those hordes who once escaped the family farm for city life now expanded inexorably into something that was neither. The average new car cost $1,510 in 1950 and a gallon of gas to put in it set you back 18 cents. That Cape Cod house style averaged $8,450 and it came with modern kitchen appliances!

A middle-class wage averaged $3,210 and one of the biggest discretionary expenses was a B&W TV at $249.95, and it was made in America.

The sprawl continued over the years: inner suburbs, outer suburbs, exurbs, and by the 1990s, suburbs mingled with commercial centres, industrial parks, and corporate headquarters.

The Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord

The Federal Reserve System formally committed to maintaining a low interest rate peg on government bonds in 1942 after the United States entered World War II. It did so at the request of the Treasury to allow the federal government to engage in cheaper debt financing of the war. To maintain the pegged rate, the Fed was forced to give up control of the size of its portfolio as well as the money stock. Conflict between the Treasury and the Fed came to the fore when the Treasury directed the central bank to maintain the peg after the start of the Korean War in 1950.

http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/special_reports/treasury_fed_accord/background/

Actually, Truman wanted that peg maintained for his U.N. police action. The Fed argued the low peg produced an excessive monetary expansion causing inflation. The Accord, eliminated the obligation of the Fed to monetize the debt of the Treasury at a fixed rate. This agreement became essential to the independence of central banking …

Thus, 1951 ushered in “the modern Federal Reserve System”.

Sociologically, all you need to know about the decade of the 50s was written in William H. Whyte’s “The Organization Man.” Americans inspired to win World War 2 returned to an empty suburban life, conformity, and the pursuit of the dollar. Kurt Vonnegut would have agreed. His first novel, “Player Piano”, reflected the corporate culture of uniformity, team work, collectivism and stability that he experienced at General Electric.

And there was McCarthy and reds under the bed. The Rosenberg trial. HUAC. The ever-present threat of the Cold War and mushroom clouds. Captain America and Mickey Spillane taking out Commies. A new chapter in ‘War is the health of the state’ …

The business magazine Steel had applauded Truman’s policies: “the firm assurance that maintaining and building our preparations for war will be big business in the United States for at least a considerable period ahead.”

In 1950, the U.S. Budget was $40 billion with $12 billion for the military. By 1955, that year’s budget was $62 billion with $40 billion for the military. When John F. Kennedy was elected in 1960, it was 49% of about $91 billion total. Very soon after his inauguration, JFK asserted the country was spending too much for war and intended to cut back the size of the active military. Then he reversed course, adding $9 billion to the ‘defense’ kitty. A curious observation has been made about the Nixon-Kennedy debates: those who felt JFK won were primarily television viewers; the radio audience leaned toward Nixon. The 1960 election was incredibly close.

Of course, news of Soviet buildups, the “bomber gap” and the “missile gap” turned out to be exaggerated. Nonetheless, the 1970 military budget had grown to $80 billion – half of that to about 15 industrial corporations.

The fear factor card never gets old, continually played and believed. From an Iranian threat, the panic of “Reds” only 90 miles away to Bay of Pigs to the Cuban missile crisis and then an assassination to wonder about. On and on.

But by 1964, the American High had worn out and the greatest antiwar movement ever experienced in America had its effect – enter the Second Turning, the Consciousness Revolution. Perhaps the prelude to this season shift was the founding of the AARP in 1958 – another type of looking ahead from the previous generation.

After the ‘death of Camelot’ (smothered by glitz, hype and myth) America embraced the Great Society with good intentions and no ability to do simple arithmetic. The 1964 election saw the biggest Democratic landslide since 1938. Liberals would eliminate poverty – and any slight failures were blamed on the excessive spending on the Vietnam War.

And along came Nixon

Aside from health problems, LBJ also faced dissension within the ranks, from an antiwar movement, complete with Hollywood celebrities – and depressing polling results indicated the pragmatic decision to “not seek … not accept the nomination of my party for another term.” Following his earlier remarks in that speech, suspending bombing in North Vietnam and being in favor of peace talks, this decision was unexpected.

With LBJ’s withdrawal from a race that was looking promising for antiwar Eugene McCarthy likely to win large numbers of convention delegates, Hubert Humphrey announced his candidacy. So did Robert Kennedy. The latter’s ambition ended with another lone nut with a gun … McCarthy was overshadowed by Humphrey. The 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago, complete with antiwar riots and police brutality seen by “the whole world” had some influence in the outcome of the election. The failed Paris peace talks … for whatever reason … added to the shift to the Republican brand.

Nonetheless, the end result was squeaky close with but 0.7% in favor of Nixon.

Nixon assumed office after about eight years of expansion. By the end of 1969, attempts to handle the budget deficits of the Vietnam War and Federal Reserve monetary tightening via raised interest rates spawned an eleven month recession. Confidence grew with the Christmas present of the end of a mild (0.6%) recession and 1971 started looking bright.

Meanwhile, what had begun at Bretton Woods was slowly unraveling. With a little bit of coercion, the U.S. Dollar had been accepted as the world reserve currency and a fixed-exchange system would reign.

Everything worked well in the post-war era. The Marshall Plan and other aid was designed to assist growth of nations, such as Japan, as targets for export of U.S. goods – and thus able to absorb U.S. Dollars. The U.S. was producing half of the world’s manufactured goods. Initially holding half of the world’s reserves, and a creditor nation. But by 1970, U.S. Reserves were down to 16%, the Deutsche Mark and yen were undervalued with neither country willing to revalue – this being the justification for weaker currency being good for exports. Trade imbalances were worsening.

And then there was de Gaulle. With the U.S. insisting on the FDR gold price fix of $35/oz., an open market for gold made the pegged convertability between central banks a problem.: the U.S. had to keep running deficits to keep the system liquid and other countries were tempted to buy gold at the Bretton Wood price and sell on the open market for the artifically maintained strength of the U.S. Dollar.

In about 1967, de Gaulle realized the reserve currency was unsustainable and intended returning France to a gold standard. Having been a party to the establishment of the London Gold Pool in 1961, he responded to his prime minister’s later analysis:

“The international monetary system is functioning poorly because it gives advantages to the country issuing the reserve currency. Such a country can have inflation by making others pay for it.”

George Pompidou

France pulled out and the London Gold Pool collapsed in 1968. By 1971, U.S. Reserves were only around $10 billion and foreign banks held $80 billion in dollars.

In early 1971, de Gaulle sent a French battleship with a hoard of dollars to convert to gold at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The British ambassador to Washington conveyed the August 11 instruction of his government, conversion of $3 billion dollars into gold, to be stored in the underground vault of said bank. Other foreign governments had gold stored there also.

On August 16, 1971, Nixon abandoned the gold standard, asserting that the United States would no longer redeem dollars.

 

Fiat on!

And it’s been downhill ever since.

 

Epilogue to come …

 

Arrested Development

” … the moment young people walk into school, they increasingly find themselves under constant surveillance: they are photographed, fingerprinted, scanned, x-rayed, sniffed and snooped on. Between metal detectors at the entrances, drug-sniffing dogs in the hallways and surveillance cameras in the classrooms and elsewhere, many of America’s schools look more like prisons than learning facilities.”

 https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/john_whiteheads_commentary/arrested_development_the_criminalization_of_americas_schoolchildren

Money in America Part Seven

Previously, we saw the so-called do nothing Hoover do far too much, sowing the seeds of the New Deal and making the depression Great. The example of 1920-21 had been forgotten. Eight years of FDR experimentation included the 1937-38 ‘recession within a depression’, and some recovery.

 

Did the Great Depression End in 1940?

The conscription act certainly improved the employment statistics. Meanwhile, the tocsin of European war grew louder. This offered new policy opportunities but also internal conflict. A Neutrality Act had been in place and often ignored. Is there, though, any difference between the WPA and “training and service”?

At any rate, England was already in the war, one result of the mutual assistance treaty with Poland, August 25, 1939. A week later, the Nazis invade Poland. Two days after, Britain, France, Australia, and New Zealand declare war on Germany. America proclaims neutralist on September 5. By the end of the month, the Nazis and Soviets were slicing and dicing Poland.

Dateline, May 26, 1940, the evacuation of Allied troops from Dunkirk begins. Two weeks later is the start of the Battle of Britain. There was worse to come in the next months.

August 9, 1941 – Churchill arrives off the coast of Newfoundland on the HMS Prince of Wales for his first meeting with FDR, on the USS Augusta. Churchill hopes for a U.S. Declaration of war on Germany. What he gets is the Atlantic Charter, first titled the “Joint Declaration by the President and the Prime Minister” of which no signed copy exists. Even though a film crew was on hand, the equipment failed. Twice. Churchill first used the term ‘Atlantic Charter’ on August 24 in Parliament, describing not a blueprint but hopeful goals for the post-war period.

What Churchill did get was more Lend-Lease.

Back in December, 1940, FDR had suggested the U.S. Should sell munitions and so on to Britain and Canada. Opinion in the U.S.was already sharply dividied. Three month earlier, the America First Committee had formed, a non-interventionists group that peaked at 800,000 paid members and folded after Pearl Harbor.

Although the selling scheme was shot down, the Lend-Lease idea floated in early 1941 gained favor with a majority of the people – they believed it would keep American out of the war. FDR signed the Lend-Lease bill on March 11, 1941 and improvements to aid China and Russia were added. Britain got $1 billion in aid by October.

Prior to this, Britain had been selling assets and working on a ‘gold-and-carry’ principle and was running out of gold. The earlier 50 USN destroyers for basing privileges had helped some. That agreement also initiated the building of Liberty Ships.

Also back in 1940, there was another ploy. FDR proposed sending B-17 bombers and crews to Britain for testing. The Department of Justice reckoned it was illegal but recognized British orders that had not been fulfilled. General George Marshall certified that the new bombers were not essential and the deal was done. The bombers were flown to Britain with American crews.

After the loss of the HMS Hood to the Bismarck in May, 1941, the latter’s escape was short-lived: first it was sighted by the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Modoc and radio reported to the British. This information soon assisted a Catalina aircraft piloted by a U.S. Naval reserve ensign who radioed the location and heading to the Admiralty. British warships pursued and went for the kill. Some 2,200 dead, 110 captured. A cat survived. The British had three casualties from friendly fire.

Meanwhile, on the high seas, the German U-boat packs were menacing shipping. As a courtesy, U.S. Naval ships were sent to shepherd the merchant vessels. Up until 1941, America had only the naval fleet at the West Coast.

Various units were detached to become the Atlantic Fleet. The shipping lanes were declared a security zone, then the greater Atlantic as a Neutrality Zone, by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. But submarines make mistakes, especially when viewing at periscope depth. In June, 1941 the U.S.merchant ship Robin Moor was torpedoed; most of the crew survived. A formal apology from Germany was met by FDR freezing German assets in the U.S. and sending consular officials home.

On September 4, the USS Greer (DD-145) had received a radio message from a British aircraft about a German submarine. The Greer followed, reporting updated location for hours, which assisted attacks from British planes repeatedly. Finally, the U-boat (U-652) fired a torpedo which missed. The Greer countered with depth charges, lost the target but searched without result for three more hours.

FDR had a fireside speech about the incident. The Senate demanded an inquiry and asked for the Greer’s log. They never got it.

In any case, what passed for neutrality ended with the attack on Pearl Harbor.

*

To answer the question of this section, one must look for prosperity. Unemployment had peaked at 19% in the recession within the depression – at 17.2% in 1939 but was still at 15% in 1940.

From there to 1944, the curve drops steadily down to 2.4%, a combination of the selective service act and the many Rosie the Riveters and their peers. Forty percent of the labor force were either in the military or engaged in war work.

And GDP peaked that year – with gross public debt at 120% of GDP. War is expensive. So, was Main Street prosperous? It didn’t look like it and it didn’t feel like it. Wartime rationing had its bite on the domestic public; so did supply and demand. If it wasn’t rationed, it was less readily available and cost more. Personal income taxes rose to 91 percent (and later increased to 94%); corporate excess profits tax hit 91%.

On Wall Street, the Dow did not reach its 1929 level until 1954.

Washington, D.C. Invaded!

The Brits invaded the Capitol in 1940. Unlike 1814, they didn’t set fire to the White House; indeed, they were welcomed with open arms by President Roosevelt. Churchill had sent his favorite Canadian, William Stephenson, to head the British Security Coordination. This outfit and others planned a systematic propaganda campaign to “do all that was not being done and could not be done by overt means”.

Aside from propaganda and political subversion, they would also assist the new American intelligence unit, the OSS – and ensure an unprecedented fourth term for FDR.

None better to impress the American public than a handsome war hero, Roald Dahl, whose near-fatal crash put an end to his flying. Assigned in a minor diplomatic position, he befriend Charles Marsh, an influential newspaper tycoon who had moved to D.C. With high-level business and political contacts, as well as household names of journalism, the pair elevated Dahl into an intelligence elite agent. Others were added to the team: Ian Fleming, for one.

“I have in my possession a secret map made in Germany by Hitler’s government – by the planners of the new world. It is a map of South America and a part of Central America as Hitler proposes to reorganize it.

“That map, my friends, makes clear the Nazi design not only against South America but the United States as well.”

FDR Navy Day radio speech, March 11, 1941

Be very afraid – Nazis in your backyard! A work of art, that map. Here’s the thing: one of Stephenson’s proteges, Ivar Bryce – Ian Fleming’s Eton classmate and his closest friend – came up with the idea. His draft map went to Canada, BSC’s technical arm at Station M. Forty-eight hours later, an authentic-looking German map, even worn and discolored from use, arrived on Stephenson’s desk. Whether by guile or with a wink, the bogus map was given to Donovan, who took it to FDR. Plausible denialability, in any case.

America First and other isolationists” didn’t stand a chance. That, and countless other dirty tricks were played on the American people when Britannia waived the rules. But there was home-grown help: Walter Winchell, Drew Pearson, Walter Lippmann and other stenographers dutifully relayed the ‘facts’ to the public. American dramatist Robert Sherwood who did propaganda work for Donovan’s OSS, later said:

 

If the isolationists had known the full extent of the secret alliance between the U.S. And Britain, their demands for the president’s impeachment would have rumbled like thunder across the land.”

Let God save the King! had been the slogan of a fair number of Americans, mindful of WW1. But Pearl Harbor was a game changer. There had been a hint from Proclamation 2487 on May 27, 1941 “that an unlimited national emergency confronts this country … “

 December 8, 1941 – “The country seemed to remember again what it always knew: that the adventurer was the force that pushed the country forward. It was the adventurer’s America too that the soldier would shortly be defending. And no one wanted to serve more than the Forgotten Man.”

Amity Shlaes, “The Forgotten Man” (2007)

 

The War Years

January 1, 1942 – the Declaration of the United Nations was signed by 26 Allied countries.

On the 26th, the first American forces officially arrived in Great Britain.

February 19, 1942 – FDR signs Executive Order 9066 authorizing Japanese-American internment. The Census Bureau assisted locating those of Japanese ancestry from their records in 1944. (The Supreme Court asserted the constitutionality of the internment. Little did they know that FDR appointee Charles Fahy withheld the Office of Naval Intelligence report concluding Japanese-Americans on the West Coast posed no military threat.)

The FDR administration is a study in evolution: in the early years, the plan was to demonize business. Later, New Deal 2.0 instituted the idea of cartelization. And then, co-opting business for war was natural. Some might conclude this was the building of the military-industrial complex.

In March, 1942, the Federal Reserve published a “Pay-as-you-go Income Tax plan”. Social Security had initiated withholding in 1937. Now, the income tax would take another upfront bite. The problem that created was that, before, income tax was paid the following year in one hit. A double dip would be impossible for most people, so the Congress came up with a modified plan cancelling either the 1942 or 1943 amount by 75% – the main thing was to implement this ‘temporary’ scheme.

And there was more – April 27, 1942, FDR tells Congress: “No American citizen ought to have a net income, after he has paid his taxes, of more than 25,000 a year. The Treasury Department issued a memorandum to Congress wanting a 100 percent tax on incomes over $25,000. (And people whine about a health insurance mandate today.)

October 3, 1942, FDR executive order 9250 “providing for the stabilization of the economy” to implement such a plan. Does this look like prosperity?

The rise of withholding tax created a dramatic expansion of the IRS. This was all a ‘temporary’ wartime measure …

March 18, 1942 – the War Relocation Authoritywas initiated. WRA hired Dorothea Lange and other photographers to document the Japanese relocation effort. About 13,000 photographs were produced – and impounded for many years … (Shlaes, pg 387)

FDR issued executive orders from 9017 in 1942 to 9508 in 1944. So much history with social and economic impact. Executive Order 9300 on Subversive Activities by Federal Employees. February 5, 1943, one interesting example of many.

Following the money, though, shows how completely the economy was impacted by necessity … from 1940s defence spending as 17.53% of federal spending to 1945s 89.49% record.

Taxes provided some $136.8 billion to pay for part of the war. The other $167.2 billion came from Treasury bonds and “war bonds” the latter often by payroll deduction. Banks also indulged in Treasury bonds and paper, accrusing $24 billion by the end of World War Two. The 2.9% interest on the ten year war bonds, though, were after the maturity and never compensated for the rise in consumer prices over the period. So it goes.

Overall, Robert Higgs (1992) calculated that the national living standard varied through the war years from level to slightly declining.

Still, it wasn’t all doom and gloom. Civilian employment had increased from the 1940 statistic by 13.4% in 1944 and unemployment was but 0.7% of the population. Some 10 million women worked outside the home by war’s end. Two million women had been involved in war work.

 

The Post-war Years

Actually, the major monetary event preceding peacetime was the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference. Formalizing rules for currency conversion and esablishing the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (now part of the World Bank) provided an international monetary order.

The experts of the day looked past August 15, 1945. Emperor Hirohito’s surrender of Japan by radio broadcast at noon and General Order No. 1 signed by President Truman on August 17. They forecast 1946 in Chicken Little’s words, or maybe they mistook Randolph Bourne’s 1918 essay as a policy.

Defence spending in 1946 was still at 77.3% of federal spending. It halved by 1947 and was still at 32.2% in 1950. Some economists had predicted a slide back into depression with the return of servicemen and women. The #13 billion Marshall Plan and the $1.8 billion for Japan reconstruction helped a lot. It also built in a trading potential mindful of America’s import and export requirements. Building your markets, perhaps. Not exactly the ‘broken window’ fallacy’.

There was the G.I. Bill – access to suburban housing, vocational training, college education, and private cars available again. And peacetime consumer production certainly ramped up. Innovations of the 1930s were readily available to a new generation establishing homes. Post-war implementation of wartime invention added new ideas for commerce and prosperity.

The initial post-war outcome proved the experts wrong. Nonetheless, the recession of 1948-49 arrived, a confluence of Truman’s economic reforms and monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. This downturn began in November, 1948 and only last eleven months. Unemployment peaked around 7.9% and the wholesale price index was down by 12 points. GDP had fallen by 1.7%, and Chicken Little’s sky shone even more brightly in 1950.

GNP had been $200 billion in 1940, rose to $300 billion by 1950 and surpassed $500 billion in 1960 during those “baby boom” years.

The growth of production of consumer goods, affordable low-cost mortgages and other benefits for returning military and general post-war euphoria led to a rising middle class. The overall work force was changing, too. During the 50s, services jobs grew to equal and then surpass goods production. The farm sector over-productivity’ led to decline of small farms as Big Agra grew. The decline of the farm sector from 1947 at 7.9 millions continued for generations. By 1956, there were more white-collar workers than blue.

The availability of personal automobiles, demand for single-family homes, and the rise of suburbia began and continued. Only eight shopping centers existed at war’e end and grew to 3,840 in 1960.

As individuals left the big cities for suburbia, so, too, industries fled Metropolis for the Sun Belt. Even air-conditioning became a ‘must have’.

And there was the federal highway system to facilitate the migration.

The decade of the 1950s, a time of complacency and conformity, would dramatically change in the 1960s. It was the time of the Second Turning, the High had peaked and cultural revolution was upon America.

 

In the exciting conclusion to come …

Money in America, Part Six

In the last episode, we followed post-World War One arrangements to return to a gold standard generally; the little-known Recession of 1920-1; the Strong-Norman dynamic duo; the Weimar collapse; the easy money that put the roar in the Roaring 20s; Black Thursday and Hoover’s seeds of the New Deal.

An overture: February, 1929, Montague Norman comes to the United States for secret meeting with Secretary of the Treasury, Andrew Mellon. Also, he confers with Federal Reserve directors, presumably to agree to a coordinated approach to the impending bubble collapse.

Let it be?

Surely it was only a coincidence that the Federal Reserve advisory to member banks was to liquidate their stock market holdings. Paul Warburg had also told stockholders of his International Acceptance Bank:

If the orgies of unrestrained speculation are permitted to spread, the ultimate collapse is certain not only to affect the speculators themselves, but to bring about a general depression involving the entire country.

After Black Thursday

The stock market crash of 1929 did not cause the Great Depression but it was a warning. Too much speculation, animal spirits, hid the underlying truth of much productivity increase since the 1920-1 correction.

A voice crying in the wilderness at the time:

I was one of the only ones to predict what was going to happen. In early 1929, when I made this forecast, I said that there would be no hope of a recovery in Europe until interest rates fell, and interest rates would not fall until the American boom collapses, which I said was likely to happen within the next few months.

What made me expect this, of course, is one of main theoretical beliefs that you cannot indefinitely maintain an inflationary boom. Such a boom creates all kinds of artificial jobs that might keep going for a fairly long time but sooner or later must collapse. Also, I was convinced that after 1927, when the Federal Reserve made an attempt to stave off a collapse by credit expansion, the boom had become a typically inflationary one.

Friedrich Hayek

Irving Fisher had a different viewpoint, thought stocks would rebound, had skin in the game and got skinned. By 1933, he had rejected equilibrium and developed his theory of debt-deflation. He reckoned that speculation and overconfidence were less important than the risk factor of debt.

I fancy that over-confidence seldom does any great harm except when, as, and if, it beguiles its victims into debt.

It took three years for the market to find a bottom. With Hoover doing his bit along the way: wage controls, assisted by the Smoot-Hawley tariff, public works like the Hoover Dam, increased corporate taxes, the increase in the top tax bracket from 25% to 63% and more.

Coolidge on political action:

When depression in business comes, we begin to be very conservative in our financial affairs. We save our money and take no changes in its investment. Yet in our political actions we go in the opposite direction …

When times are good we might take a chance on a radical government. But when we are financially weakened we need the soundest and wisest of men and measures.

Silent Cal also said that Hoover had given him nothing but advice (as Secretary of Commerce) and all of it bad. Coolidge also labelled him “Wonder Boy” back then.

Hoover’s good intention of maintaining wages ran down a rocky road: some businesses followed the ‘patriotic’ duty foisted on them by cutting staff; others simply went out of business. Oh well. To compensate, the administration by April 1930 pumped public works spending to the highest point in five years.

And then there were the farmers. Having been lured into acquiring more land through easy money, and consequent overproduction, supply outran demand. Prices were falling. Deflation! Shock, horror, but Hoover’s tariff was part of the fix. Irving Fisher and 1027 other economists signed a letter to Hoover begging him to veto the bill, because of the unintended consequences.

The irony is, getting rid of tariffs (they were regressive!) was the justification for the income tax. Also, over the preceding fifteen years, U.S. exports surpassed foreign imports – what domestic price improvement would be made would be offset by reduced or curtailed export income. And, not to mention, higher food prices tended to disadvantage the poor sap buying groceries.

And by early 1930, unemployment was up to nine percent anyway.

That was the year Paul Warburg published his The Federal Reserve System: Its Origin and Growth. (1930) From Vol. 1:

While technically and legally the Federal Reserve note is an obligation of the United States Government, in reality it is an obligation, the sole actual responsibility for which rests on the reserve banks … The government could only be called upon to take them up after the reserve banks had failed.

Hoover tried an each-way bet for his tariff: he would not veto it, contingent on his independent commission overseeing and setting prices domestically after review of local and foreign statistics. But the executive could veto the conclusions of the committee …

Inevitably, retaliation happened. First, the Swiss, upset about their watch exports, boycotted all U.S. Imports. Add Italy, France, India, Canada and dozens of others.

To make matters worse, the U.S. was owed debts from foreigners from the war years and after. Without cross-trade under the gold exchange standard such repayments easily fell into arrears. Shooting yourself in both feet is not a sound foundation to stand on.

Hoover had been dubbed “the Great Engineer” for the world-class firm he founded in 1908 and his reputation expanded for his humanitarian efforts in organizing food shipment to central Europe during WW1 and even into Russia in 1921. By the 1932 election, voters remembered he had supported Prohibition and its unintended consequences and the near-death spiral of unemployment up above 24.1% and rising, more raised income taxes across the board, the Bonus Army and other Hoovervilles.

The New Deal Era

Franklin Delano Roosevelt won 42 of the 48 states in the 1932 election.

Russians Hopeful of ‘a New Deal’

New York Times dispatch from abroad. November 10, 1932

FDR’s first national radio speech in April, 1932 on the campaign trail focused on the underdog: “the Forgotten Man”. No, hardly the one written by William Graham Sumner. The new, improved version was of the “forgotten, the unorganized but indispensable unit of economic power.”

The inauguration on March 4, 1933 was the last such transition date. The Twentieth Amendment changed inauguration date to January 4 – it was ratified on January 23, 1933 but took effect on October 15, 1933.

In his 20-minute speech, Roosevelt asserted

that the only thing we have to fear… is fear itself

along with the greed … of bankers and businessmen, unscrupulous money changers, the falsity of material wealth, to put people to work, and requesting broad Executive powers.

The following day, he asked Congress for a bank holiday and initiated one by personal edict. On March 9, the retroactive Emergency Banking Act was signed; it included the process for reopening the banks and a few other obscure matters. Ten thousand banks had failed from 1929 to 1932; the current bank panic and runs on the banks by scared depositors was the justification for the bank holiday of four days, breathing space for legislation to cope.

By the end of the month, three-fourths of the closed banks were returned to business as usual.

More or less … Fractured reserve banking had received unlimited amounts of Federal Reserve currency to restore their solvency.

On March 12, 1933 FDR inaugurated his fireside chats. He asked the public to banish fear. A day later, citizens stood in line having raided their mattresses and restored half of their currency that had been ‘hoarded’ during the crisis.

Executive Order 6102

Technically, this was signed on April 5, 1933. In reality it was already a fait accompli due to the Emergency Banking Act. This had incorporated provisions from the never repealed 1917 Trading with the Enemy Act and a subsection dealing with the Federal Reserve Act and the Secretary of the Treasury. There had also been a stopgap Executive Order 6073 on March 10.

Curse those dirty hoarders was the excuse. So 6102 demanded confiscation of gold coin, gold certificates, and bullion, on pain of fine and/or imprisonment.

Oh, there were exemptions, private citizens could keep about 5 troy ounces of gold. At this time, the official price of gold was $20.67 but millions of Americans riding the rails in search of jobs and food probably did not get to exercise that option.

Those working with gold, jewelers, artisans, and so on, could maintain some working stock. And coins of numismatic value were exempt, not likely having any relevance on Main Street, though.

All else was to be returned to the Federal Reserve or their agents.

Act in haste, repent by modification: 6102 was altered by 6111, 6260 and 6261 later in the year. Even so, there was an ‘oops’: New York attorney Frederic Barber Campbell had in 1932 deposited a total of 5000 troy ounces of gold bullion at Chase National and demanded its return in September 1933. The bank cited the various executive orders and Campbell sued.

Then a federal prosecutor indicted Campbell for failing to report and failure to surrender said gold. That prosecution failed due to the error that the Secretary of the Treasury was to have signed the order instead of the president. Like they say, though, the house always wins. The right of the government to confiscate was affirmed anyway. Bye bye, bullion.

The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 sorted out all the inconsistencies and further added that gold clauses in private contracts were unenforceable. Previously, such clauses had been used to demand payment in weight of gold, on the basis one would be protected from government debasement of the money.

But that Act was yet to come and would legitimize the answer to the 1933 problem the administration faced.

Significant other activity that year was the Banking Act of 1933, aka the Glass-Steagall Act. This created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – and the Federal Open Market Committee. Second was the acceptance of the 21st Amendment to the Constitution on December 5, 1933. This added some tax revenue to the government coffers.

 

Those old Liberty Bonds …

The chickens were coming home to roost. Aside from the interventions to help the British, the U.S. Entry into World War One was partly paid for by about 70% inflation. The public bought the Liberty Bonds – with a little push – which were gold denominated. Series one, two, and three had rolled over into a fourth in 1918 at ever more favorable rates.

For many years, the Treasury had ‘bled’ gold to pay the interest on these bonds and other debts. By 1933, the outstanding debt in gold was $22 billion and the Treasury had only $4.2 billion in the kitty.

Default was FDR’s answer but it wasn’t called that. No, the justification was shored up by blaming hoarders, the failing banks and a downturn of the economy that no one could have anticipated. The role of the Federal Reserve System in pumping the money supply for World War One and its severe contraction that led to the 1920-1 depression never entered the public discourse. James Warburg, son of Paul (one of the Jekyll Island gang) served as one of FDR’s advisors. So, too, did Irving Fisher, who’d believed his own stock market theories enough to invest the family fortune in 1929 and lost.

The bank holiday and gold confiscation went hand in hand to solve the problem that the U.S. Government simply could not pay its debts in gold.

Of course, the mantra always sounded that the most important issue was to save the banks. Another belief, supported by ‘repealing the law of supply and demand’ was artificially maintaining high prices. To assist in this and ‘help’ the farmers, 10 million acres of cotton would be plowed under; 5 million hogs and 2 million cattle would be destroyed. Of course, Hoover had helped the farmers first with the artificial raising of prices and the tariff, and loans to farmers, FDR built on this foundation with the Agricultural Adjustment Administration, and other acronym soup varieties.

Various critics complained that gold confiscation was effectively taking the country off the gold standard. FDR said it was only temporary and his Treasury Secretary William Woodin said the charge was “ridiculous and misleading.” The next step of cancelling the gold clause of private contracts did not reassure the critics.

Uncertainty ruled the day, not least amongst foreigners. FDR’s bizarre official setting of the gold price did not help.

If anybody ever knew how we really set the gold price through a combination of lucky numbers, etc., I think they would be frightened.”

Secretary of the Treasury Henry Mortenthau

While all this was happening, the ghost of Bryan raised its Populist head. Factions, particularly in the western states, were calling for a return to a bimetallic standard. FDR’s “pump and dump” began in 1933, followed by the Silver Purchase Act of 1934. The Treasury regularly bought silver at above market rates, tripling the value to one-third of its gold reserves. The metal itself had tripled in value in just two years.

“Whenever in the judgment of the President such action is necessary to effectuate the policy of this act, he may by Executive order require the delivery to the United States mints of any or all silver by whomever owned or possessed. The silver so delivered shall be coined into standard silver dollars or otherwise added to the monetary stocks of the United States as the President many determine; and there shall be returned therefor in standard silver dollars, or any other coin or currency of the United States, the monetary value of the silver so delivered less such deductions for seigniorage, brassage, coinage, and other mint charges as the Secretary of the Treasury with the approval of the President shall have determined: Provided, That in no case shall the value of the amount returned therefor be less than the fair value at the time of such order of the silver required to be delivered as such value is determined by the market price over a reasonable period terminating at the time of such order.”

excerpt from Proclamation 2092 (emphasis mine)

Unintended (?) consequences: China, traditionally on a silver-backed currency, and faced with an artificial market price for silver, did all the wrong things. Ultimately, the private banks were nationalized by the Nationalist government, unredeemable paper money to solve the problem was issued.

Fiat on. The Nationalist government debased their currency, fell eventually and the communists took charge of the country. Mexico was whacked by that 1934 Act also.

January 31, 1934 – the ‘gold letter day’ when the official price was set at $35, rather a significant devaluation of the dollar from the former $20.67 and the Treasury held its “my preciousss”. Only a few lucky individuals in the U.S. owned any gold for decades.

Earlier in January, FDR asked Congress for $10.5 billion for recovery programs. On the 31st, he signed the Farm Mortgage Refinancing Act. Several more farm relief measures were undertaken.

On June 6, FDR signed the Security Exchange Act establishing the SEC. First chairman, Joseph Kennedy.

That Silver Purchase Act which was signed on June 19 also established the National Labor Relations Board. And June 28 was very busy:

  • the start of the Federal Housing Administration
  • Taylor Grazing Act reserves 8 million acres
  • Tobacco Control Act imposes quotas
  • Federal Farm Bankruptcy Act imposes moratorium on foreclosures

 

The Second New Deal, 1935-1938

A significant style of administration change is notable in this period, as presented in FDR’s annual message to congress.

1935 gave America the Works Progress Administration, National Labor Relations Act, the Social Security Act, Resettlement Act, Rural Electrification Administration, the Wagner Act, Federal Credit Union Act, Revenue Act and more, including a Neutrality Act. The Banking Act of 1935 officialized the FDIC as a permanent agency. Keynesianism in its glory.

The next three years saw the Soil Conservation Act, United States Housing Authority, and 1936 was noteworthy for the Treasury order to build the gold repository at Fort Knox. Just as well …

So many changes, so many improvements. So much uncertainty.

Who really cared that the stock market was slowly climbing out of the abyss. Not everyone agreed with FDR’s policies, the Supreme Court overturned some of them. Meanwhile, Main Street was not singing happy days are here. Unemployment in October, 1933 was 22.9 percent, November, 23.2% and still sinking; January, 1934 at 21.2%, November, 23.2%. July, 1935, 21.3%.

By December, 1936 the rate was improved, 15.3%; a month later, 15.0%.and at 13.5 in August, 1937.

But. FDR’s tax fiddling had unintended consequences: the undistributed profits tax on companies ate into reserves and employers who had retained workers could not now afford to do so. Credit lay fallow as businesses hesitated to invest. Stock prices began falling, illuminating the inconvenient truth that companies had been losing money for years. And in the heartland, 15,000 farm families left the drought and headed west.

Also, the administration attempt to balance the budget was an unexpected U-turn. No wonder people were confused and uncertain. At any rate, the market was like Black Tuesday redux. The embezzlement by Richard Whitney, head of the NYSE, didn’t help nor even his conviction and imprisonment.

By January, 1938, unemployment was up to 17.4% in this ‘recession within a depression’. Naturally there was a decline in the stock market. Despite all the cartelization of industries under the New Deal, greedy businessmen were demonized. Yet even Keynes told FDR that the recession was more than a monetary problem:

“It is a mistake to think businessmen are more immoral than politicians.”

If there was uncertainty in business and among the general public, it was only a reflection of the dithering shifts of administration policy. Wendell Willkie made speeches on the ‘the terrifying effect of its random targeting of businesses had on the general economy.’

One sign of the times was the election of 1938. The Republican brand had lost members in both houses in 1930, with further declines in 1932, 1934, and 1936. But this time, they gained eight in the House, eight in the Senate, and eleven governors. The times they were a’changing. Meanwhile, news from Europe looked more and more grim.

In the election of 1940, Wendell Willkie had won his party’s nomination with some difficulty but offered a classical liberal platform:

I say that we must substitute for the philosophy of distributed scarcity the philosophy of unlimited productivity. I stand for the restoration of full production and reemployment by private enterprise in America.”

Roosevelt, though, had some advantages. Massive spending on jobs across the country and 42 millions enrolled in Social Security certainly helped. FDR had also diminished the rhetoric against business. Still, he lost some Democrats over the choice of running for a third term (what would George Washington have said?)

Willkie tried the ploy of claiming FDR would secretly plunge American into a world war and though it may have cost some support, FDR’s pledge ‘he would not send ‘American boys into a foreign war saw a resounding win of 27 million against Willkie’s 22 million. Electoral College: 449-82.

The Selective Training and Service Act of 1940, enacted September 16, was the first peacetime conscription in American history. The initial term was for twelve months.

In early 1941, FDR asked for an extension which passed the House by a single vote.

The unemployment rate perforce went down considerably. After the Day of Infamy, a new, improved selective service act extended the term of duty to two years after the war. Pearl Harbor saw thousand of volunteers a day later and thousands more conscripted. In all, over 10 million were enrolled in the military.

And thus began the myth of ‘wartime prosperity’.

When we return, a look at the real wartime economy and the post-war boom.

Money in America, Part Five

 

Previously, we learned that the early 20th Century was a whole new ball game. A new and improved banking reform demanded by the people, with help, led to the Federal Reserve System. The “war to end war” commenced and ended, more or less …

 

Although peace broke out on November 11,1918 an Allied naval blockage hemmed in Germany for eight more months. Some 250,000 civilians, estimated, died in this period of disease and starvation. The necessity of importing food and the refusal of a loan from the United States meant Germany’s gold reserves diminished.

The signing of the Treaty of Versailles on June 28, 1919 ended the blockade. Germany had neither representation nor an invitation to the treaty completion. German reparations were specified at 132 billion marks (US$31.5 billion) and loss of territory, as well as limitations of their military. (The final reparation payment occurred in October, 2010.)

A few movers and shakers sat on the carpet playing their own version of ‘Risk’ and redrawing the world map to their liking. Meanwhile …

The Return of the Gold Standard

Great Britain was one of the victors of World War One – at a cost. They, and others, had monetized the debts for the war effort, double, triple or quadruple their money supply. Germany had extended to eight times pre-war! Only the United States had remained on the classic gold-coin standard, a dollar equal to one-twentieth of an ounce.

By February, 1920, the fiat pound sterling was worth one-third less than the pre-war value. Other countries were worse; the German mark had depreciated by 96 percent.

The British had a plan, floating exchange rates had to go: only a return to the pre-war value of the pound sterling would save the day.

Only one thing was wrong with this idea: an overvalued pound meant their mercantilist export market would suffer. A further complication to the alternate of a realistic value was the trade unionist movement – a deflationary policy was unthinkable. Britain would continue a monetary expansion – inflation – from the new standard and easy credit would solve all problems.

A policy was formulated, provisional on the U.S. maintaining an inflational policy to prevent adverse flow of British gold out of the country.

Britain hedged with the Gold and Silver Embargo Act of 1920, vowing to return to a gold standard by 1925. Both countries had seen an immediate post-war boom – and a ‘correction’ in 1920-21.

 

That Unknown ‘Correction’

Not many people apparently know of the U.S. Recession of 1920-21.

The Federal Reserve had been compliant in easing policy to support World War One. According to New York Federal Reserve Governor Benjamin Strong, the Fed was Treasury’s agent and servant. Independence … Anyway, by 1919, U.S. Inflation had risen over 27%. The Wilson administration slashed federal spending severely and by November, the federal budget was balanced. In concert, the Fed Reserve raised interest rates, sequentially to a final 7%.

This one-two punch to the economy resulted in employment and productivity declining and finally falling remarkably in June, 1920. Farmers, misled by high food prices in wartime had expanded land holdings based on cheap credit. The 7% final Fed’s rate was a killer. Wholesale prices overall declined by half. Bankruptcies on the land and general contagion bottomed the economy. Briefly – the economy immediately bounced upward (not a dead cat bounce) and the short-lived hardship was forgotten in the bling of the Roaring 20s.

Most everyone knew Great Britain intended to restore the gold standard. Speculators took advantage and a return to the prewar value of the pound stering was effectively priced in – objectively, it was overvalued.

Warren G. Harding had assumed the presidency in 1921 and further assisted the recovery by cutting government spending even more.

Incidentally, there was another Harding during this era: William P.G. Harding, second president of the Federal Reserve, 1916-1922. then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1923 to 1930, when he died. Connecting more dots … Carter Glass was Secretary of the Treasury from late 1918 to early 1920.

Great Britain’s post war recovery was not quite reflected in the unemployment rate, which varied between 9 and 15 percent even into 1924. The government countered this with a new unemployment program. Most of the problem involved the export industries. J.M. Keynes offered some opinions and criticism during the period. (By the way, he insisted his name was pronounced “Canes” or “Cains.” Or maybe it was “Cain’s descendant … )

“When stability of the internal price level and stability of the external exchanges are incompatible, the former is generally preferable.

There is no escape from a ‘managed’ currency, whether we wish it or not. In truth, the gold standard is already a barbaric relic.”

A Tract on Monetary Reform – 1924

Keynes advocated semi-monopolistic structures operating under government approval and with government supervision. He also favored eugenics. And he appeared to believe that individual or private business self-interest should be replaced by the “intelligent judgement” of government. For the common good.

Keynes surely appreciated the U.S. Federal Reserve System. Before 1914, government issued gold certificates were 100% redeemable. FRNs afterward were only 40% backed by gold. Aha, thus the money supply increased during the war years a great deal.

Benjamin Strong had gone to England in 1916 to set up monetary coordination between the two countries. He met Montague Norman, then deputy governor of the Bank of England and a personal and professional friendship began that ended only in 1928 when Strong died.

A dozen years working together can accomplish a lot. The goal was to return to a gold standard with the pound sterling at $4.86, its pre-war value. To accomplish this, the U.S. would maintain inflationary policy to keep gold from leaving England. Strong and his New York Fed purchased U.S. government securities from November 1921 to June 1922 and the money supply grew. To enhance this policy, Norman also advocated lowering Fed interest rates.

Strong was ill through much of 1923 and the Federal Reserve Board sold off much of the government securities. On his return, Strong intervened again and again the money supply increased.

Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon received the rationale that keeping American prices higher than British would establish the pound around par and facilitate the return to the gold standard. By early 1925, a line of credit to Britain of $200 million in gold was necessary to keep the scheme alive. The House of Morgan assisted with a $100 million line of credit. No one in authority disagreed with these maneuvers, neither Mellon nor the Federal Reserve Board. Higher prices in America supported the pound sterling.

Even so, Norman came to America for a serious talk with Strong and “Jack” Morgan, seeking reassurance about returning to gold.

Harding had died in office in August, 1923 and Vice President “Silent Cal” Coolidge had become the new president. Business as usual. Except …

… there was this: Weimar Germany and war reparations. The German war machine was powered by the printing press – the national debt went from 5 billion marks to 156 billion. Their wartime government had imposed price controls but the flood of money printing overwhelmed such efforts.

The first reparations payment, at 2 billions of gold marks at the 1913 value came due in June, 1921. A combination of gold, currency, coal, iron and wood sufficed to keep the wolves from the door.

But prices had caught up well and truly with the supply of money and in 1922, it appeared a default on the next installment was inevitable.

“Jack” Morgan organized an international reparations conference; to no one’s surprise, no easy answer was available. The German cost of living index that June was 41 but had risen to 685 by December.

France had its fifty-year grudge for the defeat of 1871 and with Belgium, invaded the productive Ruhr industrial area in January, 1923.. The Weimar government ordered a general strike. To pay the idled workers and support families who’d lost their homes during the 18-month occupation, there was only one quick answer: print more money!

Imagine at a given moment that a person orders one cup of coffee at a cost of 5,000 marks – and minutes later, a second cup had risen to 9,000.

Overall the mark had gone from 4.20 to the U.S. Dollar in 1914 and by November, 1923, one dollar fetched 4.2 trillion with a T marks.

Klaus Mann, a writer of the day: “What breathtaking fun it is to watch the world coming off the rails … the complete depreciation of the only truly credible value in this godforsaken era: that of money.”

His brother, Golo Mann, a historian: “What was there to trust, who could you rely on if such were even possible?”

A critic of the government at the time was interviewed and asserted that the high cost of living was the biggest problem Germany faced. “We intend to make life cheaper,” he declared. His name was Adolf Hitler.

The Gold-Exchange Standard!

At last! Years in the making, the British Cabinet announced the return to gold on March 25, 1925, with conditions: a $300 million credit line from the U.S., no Bank of England change of the bank rate, and the new pretend standard would be based on gold bullion and not gold coin redemption. Also, the Chancellor of the Exchequer would discourage the domestic use of gold coin. If this didn’t work, there was always the legislative hammer.

By comparison, the classical gold standard empowering redemption in gold coin restrained issue of the currency and government excess. The bullion standard thus disempowered ordinary people but kept exchange for international trade.

The Gold Standard Act of 1925 specified a minimum bullion bar of 400 gold troy ounces. Montague Norman explained it this way:

“ … confidence in the value of money does not depend upon the existence of gold coin … in times of abundance hoarding [of gold coin] is bad because it weakens the command of the Central Bank over the monetary circulation and hence over the purchasing power of the monetary unit … the use of monetary gold can be limited, in case of need, to the settlement of international balances.”

In point of fact, however, Britain would be on gold and European countries effective went on a pound sterling basis. Effectively, European countries would redeem their masses of international trade currency for pounds as reserves.

The beauty of this was that Britain could issue more pounds for settlement which was a stealth opportunity for European economies to inflate their own money supply due to greater pound reserves. Such a deal!

America was the exception in this scheme but the Strong-Norman connection ensured U.S. Dollar inflation and no gold would flee jolly old England.

Some European countries fared better than others, initially. France, for example, had experienced significant inflation to the rate of 240 francs to the pound. Under the British plan, France returned to gold at 124 francs/pound. Germany, Austria, and other countries that experienced hyperinflation returned to the pretend gold standard at a more pragmatic rate.

Immediate post-war prices were high due to the armies of fiat dollars sloshing around the world. Those early masters of the universe feared ‘deflation’ so much that the falling prices of 1920-21 convinced them without much effort that an inflationary policy was the best response.

Some 39 countries were embroiled in the gold-exchange standard by 1926, and 43 by 1928.

Governor of the Bank of France, Emile Moreau had this to say at the time:

“England … putting Europe under a veritable financial domination … remedies prescribed always involve the installation in the central bank of a foreign supervisor who is British or designated by the Bank of England … guarantee against possible failure they are careful to secure the cooperation of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Moreover, they pass on to America the task of making some of the foreign loans if they seem too heavy, always retaining the political advantages of these operations.”

In the U.S., the money supply from 1921 to 1929 increased 61 percent. This certainly helped Great Britain but not enough. The self-serving policy of a strong pound sterling in reality shot themselves in the foot and fettered their export market. Also, militant trade unions maintaining a high wage rate also exacerbated high unemployment. During the whole of the Roaring Twenties, Britain’s unemployment rate remained around recession grade and was eleven percent by 1929.

Meanwhile, American prices had started to decline in the middle of the decade, and this threatened the balance again Britain. Not to be undone, the dynamic duo, Strong and Norman called a secret conference in 1927. Britain had already suggested to France that perhaps the pound sterling might have to be devalued. The duo met with counterparts from the French and German central banks. Even the Federal Reserve Board in Washington know nothing of this.

Strong promised more inflation, a boost to the stock market, and a further purchase of $60 million sterling to backstop that British pound. He also made significant purchases of U.S. Securities.

An article in The Banker, a London journal, praised Strong as “a friend of England in her greatest need.

Strong died in October, 1928, from a lengthy illness, and never saw the fruits of his labors.

The stock market certainly benefitted by Strong’s attentions, doubling in 1929. Before President Coolidge vacated the White House in March, 1929 he praised the American economy as “absolutely sound” and said stocks were cheap.

Black Thursday and Beyond

Belatedly, the Federal Reserve tried weakly to stuff the easy money genie back in the bottle. But the trends were already in place – July, 1927 unemployment, 3.3% and Dow Jones Industrial Average, 168. Early October, 1929, unemployment around 5%, DJIA, 343.

Coolidge had said back in 1927, “I do not choose to run for president in 1928.” He already had five years in and believed that too often, the man became the office. Harding, before him, had offered Herbert Hoover a cabinet post. Hoover chose Commerce, which was a minor position – and he aimed to change that. Harding died in office and VP Coolidge rose to the White House and though he kept Hoover in place, he privately referred to him as ‘Wonder Boy’.

The 1928 three-way early race for Republican nominee led to Hoover being nominated on the first ballot. The election went resoundingly to him with Democrat Al Smith winning but six states.

Hoover courted the press in his first seven months but after Black Thursday, his availability was diminished. Having already made a name for himself as a reformer and regulator of early radio, he made more plans for reform. He disliked laissez faire ideas and advocated public-private cooperation, expanded the civil service and unleashed the Justice Department and Internal Revenue Service on tax evaders like Al Capone.

Far from the “do-nothing presidency” faux reputation believed by some, he was a very busy administrator with hands in every pot, domestic and foreign.

Meanwhile in the last week of October, the Federal Reserve was still assisting Montague Norman; doubling the hoard of government securities and adding $300 million bank reserves increased liquidity, fuel to the fire on Wall St. Speculators on margin included more people than you can imagine: elevator operators, shoe shine boys, housewives, farmers, college students; it seemed every American was acting on the latest hot stock tip.

Volatility had increased with large swings both ways. DJIA peaked at 381.17 on September 3, the culmination of a six-year run.

On Thursday, October 24, the market fell by 11% after the opening bell.

Panic! The House of Morgan, Chase Bank, and the National Bank of New York met to agree on emergency funding. Richard Whitney, vice president of the New York Stock Exchange was chosen as their facilitator. He placed massive orders for blue chip stocks, U.S.Steel and others. By the day’s close, the DJIA was only down 6.38 and everyone breathed a sigh of relief until …

“Black Monday”, October 28, the market opened to massive selling and lost 13%. “Black Tuesday” followed with another drop of 12%. Sixteen million shares were traded that day, setting a record that lasted nearly 40 years.

One of the triggers for the instability was the anticipation, or dread, of the passage of Hoover’s Smoot-Hawley tariff.

Despite more interventions, the market continued to slide until November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. Then a bear market rally (dead cat bounce) took the peak to 294.07 on April 17, 1930. From there, the market declined to July 1932 when the Dow closed at 41.22. Only in November, 1954 did the Dow see a figure reminiscent of the 1929 peak.

The so-called ‘do nothing’ president got his tariff, part of an overall plan of price and wage manipulation, the Glass-Steagall Act, the National Credit Corporation, forced migration of Mexicans back to Mexico, the largest peacetime tax increase in history, the Federal Home Loan Bank Act, the Emergency Relief and Construction Act, the Reconstruction Finance Corporation – and more. Truly, these were the seeds of the New Deal.

Hoover’s policies claimed he did too little, too late, nothing worked – and then there was the debacle of the Bonus Army.

He accepted a nomination for re-election in 1932, likely because no other of the party wanted the job. Franklin Delano Roosevelt called Hoover “jelly” and people not only threw rotten eggs and fruit at his appearance but several assassination attempts were thwarted. By the election, Hoover won only as many states as Al Smith had in the previous election. Roosevelt captured the presidency, the house and the senate, and increased Democratic representation in many states as well.

 

Our next episode will begin with the real default of 1933, more interventions, the recession within the Depression, and the real end of the Great Depression.



Money in America, Part Four

 

Previously,we saw the holy Grail of banking reform was actually a hidden agenda of politics, banking, and big business.The seeds were planted in Indianapolis and now, the game is surely afoot.

 

The National Monetary Commission in 1908

Informing the public via a predetermined public relation campaign, with surveys and solutions of a predetermined outcome worked well. Keeping the scheme going for a decade took time, effort, and investment.

With the passage of the Aldrich-Vreeland Act in 1908 contained two important but little-known provisions: the emergency currency potential and the establishment of the NMC. The former provision would have expired in 1914 but curiously, was used for the one and only time that year.

However, Aldrich had packed his commission in June of 1908 with senators and representatives but, more significantly, powerful banking leaders.

This junket headed for Europe in the fall, studying and gather information with heads of private European banks and central banks. They concluded European banking was more efficient and the European currencies had more gravitas compared to the dollar. By December,, back in the U.S., Aldrich added Paul Warburg and others to the inner circle. Charles A. Conant was chosen for ‘research and public relations’. Warburg consulted with many academic economists at top-tier universities.

The American Bankers Association recommended a U.S. Central bank along the lines of the German Reichsbank. Hesitant heads of national banks were assured the business model would not be adversely affected by the origin of a U.S. Central bank.

Regional banking districts in the country, under control of a central board, was a recommentation in November, 1909. Throughout this whole era, the Morgan and Rockefeller banking interests had agreed to agree on a central bank. Yes.

Incidentally, William Howard Taft was elected president, a friend of Aldrich and others since 1900. On September 14, 1909, President Taft spoke in Boston and gave a big boost to the notion of a central bank. Wow. And a week later, The Wall Street Journal gave space to various op-eds, unsigned, praising that great idea of ‘elastic currency’ and other benefits. Actually, these letters were crafted by Charles Conant. He also recommended the regulation of interest rates by the central bank as a useful tool. The Washington Bureau of the Associate Press was also co-opted.

Another significant speech by Paul Warburg in New York on March 23, 1910 impressed the Merchants’ Association of New York. They had printed 30,000 copies of the transcript and distributed these far and wide.

For public consumption, a monetary conference in New York in November 1910 presented a specific recommendations for a central bank and an appeal for all part of the country to support the Bill that Alrich would soon craft.
The Private Railroad Car

G. Edward Griffin [1] sets the scene at a New Jersey railroad station like the opening of a thriller movie: it’s 10 p.m. on November 22, 1910 as a handful of important men board a private car. Unlike the numbered cars of the rest of this train, this one has no number, only a small plaque with the inscription “Aldrich”.

The senator greets his guests by first name only – and this rule is adhered throughout the trip and the week at Jekyll Island, Georgia. The private club on the island is part-owned by J.P. Morgan.

The personnel lineup:

  • Senator Nelson P.Aldrich
  • Paul Warburg, various banking connections
  • Abraham Andrew, Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury
  • Henry P. Davison, senior partner, J.P. Morgan Co.
  • Frank A. Vanderlip, president, National City Bank of New York
  • Charles D. Norton, president, First National Bank of New York
  • Benjamin Strong, head of Bankers Trust Co.

(The last two are questionable due to differing accounts in the ‘historical record’ but both were in the Morgan camp. Aldrich, incidentally, was a financial partner of J.P. Morgan, and also father-in-law of John D. Rockefeller, Jr.)

If Strong wasn’t there, he surely knew about it – we will hear more of him.

The public did indeed hear something of this secret meeting, but it was in 1935. The Saturday Evening Post carried an article by Vanderlip and the key takeaway was:

If it were to be exposed publicly that our particular group had got together and written a banking bill, that bill would have had no chance whatever of passage by Congress.

Warburg led the argument for a regional structure, presumably cognizant of public mistrust of too much power located in one area. Aldrich wanted an overt central bank with no political meddling. The compromise that was reached became the Aldrich Plan, introduced in Congress in 1912 and 1913.

(On November 5–6, 2010, Ben Bernanke stayed on Jekyll Island to commemorate the 100-year anniversary of the original meeting.)

Alas, the Democrats won the 1912 elections resoundingly. The Republican Aldrich Plan seemed to fall by the wayside.

Shiny new President Woodrow summoned a special session of Congress in April 1913. To seal the importance, he appeared in person, the first president since John Adams to do so. Wilson’s address outlined various approaches to economic policies, banking and currency reform, tariffs, and the income tax.

The 16th Amendment had been ratified on February 3, 1913. Wilson needed that tax to support lower tariffs. A little bit of patronage pressure, and the Revenue Act of 1913 was passed by the House on May 8, 1913; finally it went through the Senate on September 9, 1913.

Meanwhile, the Aldrich Plan was not dead, though that hated Republican name vanished. Representative Carter Glass, chairman of the House Banking and Currency Committee, and Senator Robert Owen, chairman of the Senate’s did a little tinkering here and there. Wilson mandated a central Federal reserve board be appointed by the president – with the consent of the Senate.

There was one thorn in Wilson’s side, his Secretary of State, William Jennings Bryan. The “Cross of Gold” person was still a power in the Democratic Party. The sop to Bryan was that Federal Reserve currency would be a liability of the government – and also, provision for federal loans to farmers.

All this horse trading took time, though, and Wilson had other fish to fry during 1913.

The 17th Amendment (Direct Election of U.S. Senators), ratified and declared, became part of the Constitution on May 31, 1913..

Finally, months in the making, what started as the Glass-Owen bill became the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. It passed the House on December 13 and the Senate, after an all nighter, on December 23. Wilson signed it that morning.

A great year for the Populists, remember they wanted:

  • a graduated income tax, direct election of senators

and before long, they got women’s suffrage (19th Amendment), the eight-hour work day, and restricted immigration.
The Federal Reserve System, 1914 and Beyond

Aldrich had convened the Jekyll Island cabal but Warburg was the only expert on the European central bank model. Galbraith asserted that “Warburg has, with some justice, been called the father of the system.”

In the end, everybody won something. Aldrich’s ‘decentralization’ became the regional banks and avoidance of the term ‘bank’ itself inevitably led to the Federal Reserve System nomenclature. And having the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. implied ‘government’. Smoke & mirrors.

A decade later, the little Orphan Annie comic strip appeared. Did anyone recognize Daddy Warbucks, the self-made billionaire doing good works with his wealth as an avatar of Paul Warburg? Anyway …

Back in the day, the public story was that the Federal Reserve System would stabilize the economy. We’ll see how that worked out.

The real power of the System was – and is – the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. And who was offered the post of governor there? Benjamin Strong. Whether or not he was at Jekyll Island, there is no doubt he had influence, having been the personal auditor for J. P. Morgan, Sr. during the Panic of 1907, and also a long-time friend of Henry Davidson.

Paul Warburg became one of the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington.

History has a droll way of throwing some unexpected crises – who would have imagined the assassination of an obscure archduke would lead to a worldwide conflagration? Well, that’s the myth, anyhow. That the British mercantilist system might have been under threat from a foreign export power is unthinkiable as a cause for war. Isn’t it?

The outbreak of World War One had one immediate financial side effect: the New York Stock Market closed. Public anxiety was dispelled by the Secretary of the Treasury, using that dormant part of the Aldrich-Vreeland Act. Emergency currency was available, by October 23, 1914, $368,616,990.

In November, the 12 regional banks of the Federal Reserve System had opened and the emergency currency was withdrawn. The FRS was open for business!

England and various European countries had been preparing for war for years. Armies were trained, alliances arranged. But when war occurred, England found itself fiscally bereft. John Pierpoint “Jack” Morgan, Jr. ruled the House of Morgan, his father having died in March, 1913. Jack became the sales representative of British bonds and also the procurement officer for their needed war material. Nice profit on money going and coming!

In 1915, President Wilson removed the ban on private bank lending to foreign allies. The House of Morgan immediately loaned $12,000,000 to Russia and $50,000,000 to France. Meanwhile, the first $12,000,000 British contract arrived, the first of many. The final total would be $3,000,000,000.

Author John Moody, writing in 1919 summed it up:

Not only did Britain and France pay for their supplies with money furnished by Wall Street, but they made their purchases through the same medium … Inevitably the House of Morgan was selected for this important task. Thus the war had given Wall Street an entirely new role. Hitherto it had been exclusively the headquarters of finance; now it became the greatest industrial mart the world had ever known. In addition to selling stock and bonds, financing railroads, and performing other tasks of a great banking centre, Wall Street began to deal in shells, cannon, submarines, blankets, clothing, shoes, canned meats, wheat, and the thousands of other articles needed for the prosecution of a great war.

Large profits and small. A commission for selling $2 billion of Allied stock holdings to buy munitions. The sale of 4,400,000 rifles for $194,000,000. The House of Morgan was both buyer and seller, and no surprise that many of the purchase contracts went to businesses where Morgan was a shareholder.

A reputation as war profiteer does attract some resentment. On July 3, 1915 an intruder stole into Jack’s Long Island mansion and shot him twice in the groin. Jack, however, survived.

Great Britain, having burned through the Australian gold, from the 19th century gold rush there, found itself short of money to fund a war. It did the thing that is obvious to every politician: achieve fiat money by golng off the gold standard. Every other country in Europe did also. America maintained a gold standard but not redemption for foreign held dollars.

By the end of the war, every country had inflated its money supply; Germany went eight times the pre-war amount. This explains much of things to come.

 

The Cunard Lines had turned over their record-breaking Lusitania over to the Admiralty. The speedy ocean lined proved inadvisable to refit into an auxiliary cruiser due to operational expense (910 tons of coal a day!), so it was ordered to continue passenger (and mail) service. On April, 22 1915, the German embassy ordered advertisements in 50 U.S. newspapers, advising prospective passengers that an Atlantic crossing went through a war zone, the seas around the British Isles.. Many of these advertisements were never published …

On May 1, 1915, the Lusitania set out on its final voyage to Liverpool, England. Little did the passengers know there was a hidden cargo of munitions and other material for the British war effort.

At this point in time, the German navy followed the code of limited submarine warfare. Neutral vessels were off limits.

At 1420 hours on May 6, the commander of the U-20, Walther Schwieger, fires one torpedo at a target:

Torpedo hits starboard side right behind the bridge. An unusually heavy detonation takes place with a very strong explosive cloud. The explosion of the torpedo must have been followed by a second one [boiler or coal or powder?]… The ship stops immediately and heels over to starboard very quickly, immersing simultaneously at the bow… the name Lusitania becomes visible in golden letters.

U20 log

The Lusitania sank in only 18 minutes. Few lifeboats were properly launched due to the extreme starboard list.

Of 1,959 passengers and crew, 1,195 perish, including 128 Americans.

Several official inquiries were convened that created enough obfuscation to keep tinfoil hat manufacturers busy to this very day. Prevented testimony, state secrets, crew statements in identical handwriting with similar phrasing; definitely one, no, two, or was it three torpedos. Some closed hearings, other open with no access to some evidence. Two sets of Admiralty papers, depending on the type of hearing. Perjury.

At any rate, Wilson’s immediate response was three diplomatic notes to Germany: strong, stronger, ultimatum. After the second, Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan resigned in protest.

Nonetheless, the American public had been fired up, just not enough for war.

The British were already hinting that, should they lose the war, they would never be able to repay their debt to America. In early 1916, President Wilson sent his personal adviser, “Colonel” Edward Mandell House to London. And why not – House was the shadow power that had arranged Wilson’s nomination for president. House even had two rooms at the White House. And while Wilson sought re-election on the slogan “he kept American out of war”, his adviser consulted with British foreign office officials, notably Sir Edward Grey. Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan had not be told of this unofficial arrangement, nonetheless, he was not stupid.

Mary Baird Bryan, co-author, The Memoris of William Jennings Bryan:

While Secretary Bryan was bearing the heavy responsibility of the Department of State, there arose the curious conditions surrounding Mr. E.M.House’s unofficial connection with the President and his voyages abroad on affairs of State, which were not communicated to Secretary Bryan … The President was unofficially dealing with foreign powers.

U.S. Ambassador Walter Hines Page:

House arrived … [with] the idea of American intervention … a minimum programme of peace – the least the Allies would accept, which, he assumed, would be unacceptable to the Germans …we should plunge into the War, not on the merits of the cause, but by a carefully sprung trick.

(memorandum, February 9, 1916)

On March 9, 1916, President Wilson sanctioned the secret agreement with England and France for the United States of intervene on behalf of the Allies. It seems Wilson and House believed the worthy end, of world peace and a world government, lay through the means of war. They had help: Assistant Secretary of the Navy Roosevelt (the Franklin Delano) urged arming merchant ships in violation of neutrality.

And time passed with America on the sidelines and the Allies accusing Wilson of dragging his feet. Maybe they didn’t understand the U.S. election cycle. The attitude of the British public toward America was “too proud or too scared” and they termed unexploded shells on the front line as “wilsons”.

Both British and German propaganda served to inflame the American public over the next months.

Wilson was narrowly re-elected in 1916. A tipping point happened when Germany attempted to enlist Mexico as an ally, following their new policy. Of unrestricted submaine warfare. This threated American commercial shipping.

On April 2, 1917 in his message to Congress, Wilson spoke of armed neutrality no longer working, “enemies against us at our very doors … unsuspecting communities … and offices of government with spies … criminal intrigues” … and a warning: disloyalty “will be dealt with a firm hand of repression.” And finally, the world must again be safe for democracy.

With fifty representatives and six senators opposted, a declaration of war was passed by Congress on April 4, 1917 and signed by Wilson the April 6.

Behind the scenes during this period, the Federal Reserve went into full operation in 1915. They played a significant role in financial Allied and U.S. War efforts (with some help.)

Wilson furthered Democratic values with the agricultural Smith-Lever Act of 1914 and the Federal Farm Loan Act of 1916. He also thwarted a national transportation shutdown by guiding the Adamson Act through Congress which instituted the eight-hour day.

Then there was the Espionage Act of 1917 and the Sedition Act of 1918. A firm hand, yes. Anarchists, Wobblies, communists, anti-war activists, and even newspaper editors were grist for the DoJ mill. Deportation of recent immigrants who opposed the war came with the Immigration Act of 1918. Then there was Wilson’s Committee of Public information, the first official propaganda office.

Wilson’s League of Nations concept came via a speech on January 8, 1918, his Fourteen Points.

 

Liberty Bonds

We have a war! And on April 24, the 1917 Emergency Loan Act initiated the first of four bond issues. Buy Liberty Bonds! It’s a patriotic duty. A limit of $5 billion was set; $2 billion were sold.

The second, third and forth issues appeared in, respectively, October 1,1917, April 5, 1918, and September 28, 1918.

A poor response to the bonds was met by the Treasury with a sales campaign promoted by Hollywood stars, Boy Scouts, and even a special Army Air Corps elite group that travelled the country. Buy a bond and get to ride in a JN-4 airplane!

Incidentally, that 1917 act is the tool by which U.S. Treasury bonds are issued to this very day.

We will re-visit the fourth Liberty Bond issue in fifteen years.

The active “war to end war” ended on November 11, 1918 with a cease fire. The Treaty of Versailles was signed on June 28, 1919.

 

In our next exciting episode, we will see the Federal Reserve assistance to restoring the gold standard for the world. Only it wasn’t …

Money in America, Part Three

Previously, we saw the post-bellum era in the light of political economy: who controls the money and what kind shall it be? Those decades were but an overture to a concerted scheme to change the nature of money and government. The plot thickens …

The Indianapolis Monetary Convention

Every special interest has a Very Good Reason why some policy should be adopted that favors them. Protectionists love tariffs – high prices on Main Street be damned. Remember the northern tariff benefited the manufacturers of the region at the expense of the agricultural South.

The silver miners wanted a free market that supported their productivity even if the federal government had to pick up the tab with a premium. The Populists wanted ‘an elastic money’.and no one thought of the law of supply and demand. Everyone wants more money and few understand that extra units of currency are actually the hidden tax of inflation.

Monetary reform in the guise of the Indianapolis Monetary Convention ­of January 12, 1897 promised to find an answer.

The alleged grassroots movement of midwestern businessmen, with behind-the-scenes advice from banking interests, particularly the J.P. Morgan faction, petitioned President McKinley to appoint a presidential commission to craft legislation for a national monetary reform bill. This effort produced a bill which passed in the House but died an ignominious death in the Senate.

Snatching a potential victory from the jaws of that defeat, the secretary of the Indianapolis executive committee, George Foster Peabody,appointed the group’s own commission. Peabody, of an elite Boston family and an investment banker, had picked influential bankers, high-powered businessmen, people having railroad interests, and academics. Funding for the commission came from the banking and corporate world and included J.P. Morgan personally.

Their first major effort was a detailed monetary questionnaire sent to hundreds of chosen experts. Selected portions of the document were sent to newspapers throughout the country.

This public relations effort and other measures to form public opinion reached over 7,000 newspapers, along with support through letters from prominent businessmen and a large cadre of organized partisans. The goal of affirming the monometallism gold standard ended the influence of the Bryan and Populist believers of free silver.

Lobbying in Washington, led by Mark Hanna, McKinley’s “brain” and manager of his campaigns of 1896 and 1900, left no stone unturned. Hanna also urged a public letter-writing effort in support of a proposed reform bill.

The Monetary Commission met in Washington on September 22, 1897 and worked into December to produce a preliminary report:

REPORT OF THE MONETARY COMMISSION
TO THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF
THE INDIANAPOLIS MONETARY CONVENTION

and quoting the resolution establishing the committee

that it has become absolutely necessary that a consistent, straightforward
and deliberately-planned monetary system shall be inaugurated, the
fundamental basis of which should be: first, that the present gold standard
should be maintained; second, that steps should be taken to insure the
ultimate retirement of all classes of United States notes by a gradual and
steady process, and so as to avoid injurious contraction of the currency or
disturbance of the business interests of the country, and that until such
retirements provision should be made for a separation of the revenue and
note-issue departments of the Treasury ; third, that a banking system be
provided which should furnish credit facilities to every portion of the
country and a safe and elastic circulation, and especially with a view of
securing such a distribution of the loanable capital of the country as will
tend to equalize the rates of interest in all parts thereof.

By now, enough public relations schemes had influenced the people. A second convention in Indianapolis in early 1898 included nearly 500 delegates from 31 states – and a thorough sampling of the nation’s corporate leaders. Bankers were included and academic economists, also.

The second convention approved of the monetary commission work on January 26, 1898 and requested a final report of greater detail. This was finished and printed for distribution in June 1898. Improvements included a broader currency base – and specifically, a central bank with sole authority to issue bank notes.

McKinley’s Secretary of the Treasury, Lyman Gage agreed with this idea, and asserted that, without a central bank, the Panic of 1893 would not be the last. With Mark Hanna’s help, he sponsored bills in the House to no avail.

1900 – The Gold Standard Act

Agreeing to support the gold standard helped McKinley get the presidency and the new century was a fine time to deliver.

The groundwork had been done by the Indianapolis conventions and the independent monetary commission reports – along with that great public relations effort of Hanna and friends. The Congress met in December, 1899 and the Gold Standard Act of 1900 came to official life in March. Some of the fine print favored currency that was flexible, “especially at harvest time” and in other instances of the need for money …

Certain factions would never be satisfied and the insistence of more reform of the banking system continued. All this agitation came from the large bankers. Small town and rural banks had no problem with the existing system – mainly because their business model apparently was founded on common sense. (Maybe they were the models for “George Bailey”.)

No system exists without someone wanting to tinker and ‘improve’ it – to their benefit. Morgan’s Chase National Bank and the American Bankers Association crafted further reform proposals which became the Fowler Bill. One provision suggested other assets than government bonds for banks would be a Good Idea, expanding the fractional reserve notion even more.

Better yet, the big banks wanted to legalize branch banking for the national banks. This would be accomplished by a third factor: centralization of the banking system via a troika at the Treasury, a preliminary step to a true central bank.

The Indianapolis Monetary Convention favored this but small banks across the country and ordinary people writing their representatives in government succeeded in killing the Fowler Bill.

Enter Plan B and Senator Nelson Aldrich of Rhode Island. The Aldrich Bill of 1903 would have authorized New York national banks to issue “emergency currency” as necessary, backed by other assets, principally railroad and municipal bonds. Not for nothing was Aldrich known in the press as the “general manager of the nation” though mention of his connection to the Rockefeller interests was ignored. Even with reputation and influence, the Aldrich Bill failed.

Too, Aldrich never saw a tariff he did not like, especially when it protected American factories. Wealthy when he entered public service, he retired a multimillionaire from his investments in sugar, rubber, street railroads – and banking. Tariff induced higher prices on Main Street weren’t his problem.

The Panic of 1907

Surely, it was only happenstance that J.P.Morgan claimed the Knickerbocker Trust Company was insolvent.

The initial instability happened on Wall St on October 14, in a failed attempt to corner the stock of United Copper Company, with collateral damage to an associate at Knickerbocker a week later. By the following day, a bank run on the Knickerbocker began.

Contagion spread. Trust Company of America and Lincoln Trust Company. Twelfth Ward Bank, Empire City Savings Bank, Hamilton Bank of New York, First National Bank of Brooklyn, International Trust Company of New York, Williamsburg Trust Company of Brooklyn, Borough Bank of Brooklyn, Jenkins Trust Company of Brooklyn and the Union Trust Company of Providence.

The New York Stock Exchange was in danger of failing. The City of New York reckoned insolvency by November 1.

J.P. Morgan left a church conference in Richmond, Virginia and assembled a cabal of prominent bankers. The cabal saved the Exchange with $23 million and Morgan bought $30 million city bonds. There were peripheral issues handled by President Theodore Roosevelt, U.S. Steel and a potential anticompetition takeover of Tennessee Coal, Iron and Railroad company.

To fix such problems in 1908, the Aldrich–Vreeland Act established a National Monetary Commission, of which good ol’ Nelson was both sponsor and chairman. Thirty reports were issued leading to an Aldrich Plan, the rudiments of a central bank.

A year later, Aldrich found a tariff feature he did not like and co-authored the Payne-Aldrich Tariff Act of 1909. This struck down excessive import duties on fine European art – and ultimately benefited some of America’s museums.

That was the same year Aldrich introduced a constitutional amendment for an income tax – a policy he had strongly opposed only a decade before.

Columbia University gathered other academics and interested persons after the Panic and the last speaker was one Paul Warburg. His main points were the superiority of the European banking system over the American one (no surprise!) and the need for a government central bank to replace competition. “Small banks,” he said, constituted the real danger. Yes …

Next, Paul Warburg and the Creature, Aldrich (again), the Crimes of 1913, Liberty Bonds, the gold standard can’t pay for a war, stay tuned!


Money in America, Part Two

In our last exciting episode, we saw barter, foreign coinage, fiat money, the rise of a banking system and systematic efforts to fiddle the system, by both banks and government. From one Turning to the next …

When the War Between the States ended, federal expenses had doubled, to $130 billion. The United States notes called the “greenback” arose from the Legal Tender Act of 1862, especially useful for all debts, public and private when there was already not enough specie to support the banking system.

The old state banking operations were supplanted by a system of banking entwined with the federal government. This new scheme led to the establishment of the Federal Reserve System.

First, of course, the government had assured the people that only $150 million greenbacks would be issued. Alas, they made two more issues, reaching a total of $415 million in 1864, all of which depreciated in real terms. Secretary Salmon P. Chase had tried unsuccessfully to manipulate the gold market to stem the depreciation along with other ‘tricks’. He ended up losing office.

Meanwhile, the state banks were still operational, and quite happy with the new fiat currency.

Needless to say, price inflation increased significantly. In the South, the Confederate fiat money issuance was far worse.

In 1865, Congress legislated a 10 percent tax on existing state banks notes. After that, the federal national banking system that had arisen had the legal monopoly on fiat money.

Much argument about the large public debt which existed after the war, and what to do about it and the greenback question. A federal debt of about $65 million in 1860 had blown out to $2.3 billion in 1866. The greenback issue was finally ruled unconstitutional in 1870 by Chief Justice Salmon P. Chase. Yes, he was for it before he was against it. Chase had become a born-again sound money supporter.

The Republicans of the day loved the legal tender laws; Democrats supported specie resumption. The railroads weren’t happy at the thought of paying their massive debts in gold. President Grant had two vacancies on the Supreme Court – and judiciously filled them with a pair of railroad lawyers. A 5-4 revisit to The Law in 1871 established paper money in accordance with the Constitution. All the banks, state and national, were happy, too, and the money supply more than doubled in seven years.

The Panic of 1873

Easy money led to easy loan, to individuals and companies. When the growth levelled off after their period of prosperity, the money supply did not decrease, nor productivity. Prices fell because costs were down and output up.

So where, really, was the panic? Yes, with a bloated banking system and railroads fat with subsidies from the federal government and the inevitable boom time speculation. Then Jay Cooke’s Northern Pacific railroad crashed and burned – hoist on his own petard of inflationary policy.

The U.S. Mint ratios, as determined by the Constitution, undervalued silver. As a result, silver coinage left for better climes where the value was respected. That’s the flaw of a bimetallic system. Also, European countries were shifting from silver to a gold standard. Add the discovery of silver mines in the American West and a government intervention.

February 1873, Congress passed a bill discontinuing further minting of silver dollars. Further legislation in June, 1874, demonetized silver for good. The GSR reached 18-1 in 1876 and was 32-1 on 1894!

The lack of transparency regarding silver had not been unnoticed by those who called for the free coinage of silver at the traditionally accepted ratio, and in unlimited quantities. This faction carried on throughout the century. Really, this movement was essentially the people vs. eastern bankers …

In 1875, the ubiquitous greenbacks still circulated, albeit discounted by 17% against gold. Grant’s administration determined to resume specie resumption in 1879. The next decade experienced great productivity, gold flowed into the country, prices were still edging downward, yet wages were up by 23 percent. Goodbye greenbacks.

Even the great Panic of 1873 had GDP growth of 6.8 perent a year. Prices going down is a signal for some economists to shriek “deflation”. Ordinary people hardly noticed; maybe the main deflation was that of fatcats whose greed brought them down.

(1877 – The Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing started printing all U.S. currency, A year later, they issued Silver Certificates in exchange for silver dollars. The last issue was in the Series of 1957. )

The Gold Standard Era, 1879 –1913

The NBER identifies a Long Depression from October 1873 to March 1879. At 65 months, this was a bigger record than the Great Depression of the 20th Century, which contraction was 43 months.

Some economists see price deflation over a long span and interpret that as the Great Depression of 1873 – 1896. While this period was most noticeable in Great Britain, in the U.S. after the inevitable correction to the panic, Main Street nor farmers hardly noticed any problem.

Productivity through 1897 continued to grow at 3.7% each year, average. Prices crept downward one percent a year. The change in money supply made the difference. A small panic hit in 1884 due to a minor contraction in the money supply.

Foreigners noted the increase of silver reserves at the Treasury and wondered if the U.S. would stay on the gold standard. The domestic agenda actually had to do with favors to the pro-silver bugs, including the western miners.

This was a tremendous period of growth – real wages climbing, prices declining slightly, savings up, inflation modest. High employment, significant investment activity, and continued rise in productivity created a period seldom equalled in American history. In real terms.

Like some say, no good deeds go unpunished.

The Devils in the Details

In the real world, one cannot separate politics and economy – it’s a symbiosis. Only academics can do this, as though it is meaningful. Back before Lincoln’s War, we saw the Whig Party implode, and Lincoln seeking his destiny with the new Republican party.

He did say, however, “I will always be a Whig in politics” which meant following his idol, Henry Clay, with internal improvements, high protectionism by tariff, a strong central government, and a national bank predicated on inflationary money policy.

In other words, mercantilism, cronyism, central control. And regionalism. For decades, tariffs had been based on the bulk of the costs borne by the South and the expenditures by the federal government primarily in the North.

The new Republican party in 1854 grew from a coalition of Whigs in disarray, “Free Democrats”, the Liberty Party, “Free Soilers” and abolitionist Democrats. Everybody had an agenda and none of it amounted to “the party of limited government” and the rest of the hype.

After Andrew Johnson’s one term, there were Republican administrations: Grant, Hayes, Garfield, Arthur – and in 1885, the first term of Democrat Grover Cleveland.

The Republicans’ nomination of James G. Blaine of Maine, former Speaker of the House, for president dissatisfied many partisans who considered Blaine as immoral. Democrats seized the day by nominating Cleveland, whose reputation of opposing corruption in government appealed to voters generally.

Cleveland’s first term was marked by significant government reform. He repudiated the ‘spoils system’ in which an incoming president appointed party cronies and turfed out the opposition. Cleveland said Republicans doing their jobs well would not be fired, merit ruled. He also diminished government departments staffed by chair warmers. Even worse, from some points of view, he attacked railroad robber barons who had not extended rail lines in accordance with agreement – those land grants were forfeit.

Cleveland was also the master of the presidential veto.

He also believed in a gold standard as opposed to bimetallism, which won him more enemies of the silver persuasion. And he also advocated tariff reform, as the beloved Republican high tariffs had actually created a government surplus. The Republic Senate, however, defeated the reform bill. The tariff question became a significant issue in the 1888 election.

Republican candidate Benjamin Harrison won two swing states, narrowly defeating Cleveland yet slightly behind the national popular vote – another victory for the Electoral College.

The advocates for free silver resurrected. The Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890 required the Treasury to buy 4.5 million ouces of silver each month. To pay for this increase in reserves, wait for it … a new issue of greenbacks although these were redeemable, with Treasury deciding whether gold or silver would be used.

1890 – Inflation is good!

Harrison, of course, had supported the Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890. Add the McKinley Tariff Act of 1890 and the supporters of high tariffs and an inflationary policy were happy.

Also, in August of that year, the New York Subtreasury used old greenbacks and the new greenback (silver) Treasury Notes. The result was paper replacing gold for settling customs charges. Cause and effect thus yielded gold outflows to foreigners, decreased imports, and growth declined.

Interventions beget interventions.

With foreigners already concerned about the U.S. honoring the gold standard, the Treasury imposed a fee on exported gold bars. As a result, all gold leaving the country was by American gold coin! Then the Senate put the cat among the pigeons in 1892 by passing a free-silver coinage bill.

Inevitably, gold exports increased. The gold-backed dollar was untrusted.

Banks submitted $6 million in Treasury notes for redemption. Treasury, worried about their declining gold reserves, implored the banks to exchange the gold for paper.

But as imported goods became more expensive, formerly Republican voters, particularly in the western states, opted for the new Populist Party. The election of 1892 was a curious and quiet affair: Harrison’s wife was dying of tuberculosis and he elected not to actively campaign. Cleveland followed in deference.

Nonetheless, much activity by the free silver factions opposing the Republican agenda, and others, led to a strong victory for Cleveland’s second term, with a significant margin in both electroal and popular vote.

He was inaugurated during this period of uncertainty and money crisis. In May 1893, the stock market collapsed. And in June, a run on the banks caused failures across the land. Many remaining banks suspended specie payment with government permission. The full-blown Panic of 1893 rocked the country. The total money supply diminished over 6 percent.

Cleveland, a sound money advocate, strongarmed the repeal of the Sherman Silver Purchase Act in November.

The gold-standard was reaffirmed.

Even so, silver advocates continued to press their case in 1895. The Treasury actively bought gold from a cartel of banks, including J.P. Morgan, and reassured everyone that gold was king.

Meanwhile, the fight against the McKinley Tariff continued. A revision bill passed the House with a large margin, after much debate. The Republican Senate, however, felt compelled to add over 600 amendments, all protectionism for cronies. The tariff, especially on raw materials was decreased, but to make up the revenue shortfall, a compromise income tax of 2% on earnings over $4,000 was added. Cleveland was not wholly satisfied with the reform but let the bill become law without his signature.

Gold and Party Politics in 1896

The once-and-forever two-party political system as we know it simply did not exist in the 19th Century.

As mentioned earlier, the Whig party effectively shot itself in the foot. Whigs became new Republicans. Four political parties contested the 1860 election. After the unCivil War, several special interests coalesced: farmers wanting lower railroad freight charges and higher crop prices, silver miners and silver bugs, prohibitionists and factions for certain populist changes to the system.

A People’s Party began in the Utah Territory in 1870 and expired in 1891. More concerned with local issues, they purported to represent the majority of Utah residents; supporting women’s suffrage helped the party. The dissolution of the party as such was an aid to gaining statehood in 1896.

The People’s Party of 1887 – 1908 is more commonly know as “the Populists” and became formally organized in 1893 with the adoption of the “Omaha Platform.” This resolution included:

  • free silver (and bimetallism!)
  • a graduated income tax
  • direct election of senators
  • public ownership of railroads and communication
  • women’s suffrage
  • eight-hour work day
  • restricted immigration

Everyone knows the phrase “the man behind the curtain” and the metaphor gets wide use in our time. L. Frank Baum’s 1900 “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz” may well contain political imagery, though it is unclear if Baum himself intended this or if later commentary reads the story as allegory.

Most people in our time are probably more familiar with the movie version. Perhaps a significant clue, Dorothy’s silver shoes in Baum’s story became ruby slippers, courtesy of Technicolor.

The movie departs from the story significantly, as Baum wrote Oz as a real place, not a dream. Another clue might be that a later Baum Oz book mentioned Aunt Em and being unable to pay the mortgage on the new house which replaced the carried-away one.

If the symbolism was intended, then the characters represent:

  • Dorothy – the American people
  • Scarecrow – western farmers (backbone of Populist movement)
  • Tin Woodman – industrial workers
  • Cowardly Lion – William Jennings Bryan (lost elections)
  • Wicked Witch of the East – eastern banking interests
  • Yellow Brick Road – gold leads to Washington, DC
  • Oz – abbreviation of ounce (gold or silver?)
  • the Wizard – possibly William McKinley

Baum supported women’s suffrage, and had known a Populist advocate who later was an elected People’s Party senator.

The Panic of 1893

Haven’t we seen this movie before?

Well, yes, we did skim it above – but 1893 is a reprise of 1873. The usual suspects: Treasury mistakes undermining the greenback, their gold reserves declining, railroad speculation, national and state banks suspended specie payments. McKinley’s Tariff of 1890 contributed rising import prices and gold outflow from the U.S.

The Philadelphia and Reading Railroad went bankrupt ten days before Grover Cleveland’s second inauguration. Then, the National Cordage Company went into receivership – it had been the most active stock on the exchange. Several other railroads went bankrupt. The stock market crashed completely. Unemployed soared to near 20%.

Distrust of the banking system caused runs on banks all across the country. The money supply diminished over 6% in less than a year.

By November, Cleveland had killed the silver purchase act, the Treasury acted to restore confidence in the gold standard, and the panic was over.

But there was yet no joy on Main Street Unemployment remained high. Ohio congressman Jacob Coxey led a “petition in boots” march from Massillon in March, 1894. Coxey’s Army of over 500 reached Washington, DC and were arrested – don’t walk on the grass at the Capitol!

Another faction out west had commandeered a Northern Pacific train, avoided detainment by Federal marshalls as they headed east. They were stopped most of the way across Montana, at Forsyth, by the army. This action foreshadowed the military breaking the Pullman Strike later in the year.

The Populist movement thought they had a win by getting Lincoln’s income tax resurrected. “Curse you, robber barons,” they might have said. But the Supreme Court had the last word in 1895 and struck down the measure.

Needless to say, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for everything, the 1894 election was a bloodbath for Democrats. And the Populist movement was marginalized and thus had to support the Bryanite Democrats in the 1896 election.

The election of 1896

It was a year that the political party system in the U.S. changed for the fourth time. For the Populists, every cloud had a silver lining and William Jennings Bryan was one.

This election was about money in more than one way: bimetallism and free silver, the gold standard, the tariff – and who could spend the most.

1896 truly ushered in modern campaigning. Republican campaign manager Mark Hanna commanded $3.5 million, easy when your candidate, McKinley represents the moneyed classes. Bryan appealed to the Rocky Mountain states, rural Midwest, and the South.

And so much for the two-party myth: there were nominations from the Democrats, National Democratic Party (pro-gold), the Populist Party, the Socialist Labor party, and the Prohibition Party and the Silver Party of Nevada.

Bryan appeared to be an outside chance at the nominating convention of the Democratic party but had the final word on the third day of the debate: his “Cross of Gold” speech turned the tide. Having begun with humility, and illustrated the equivalence of all walks of life as kinds of business; praised bimetallism, invoked an early ‘trickle-down’ concept as a bad idea, and finished with the killer quote:

Having behind us the producing masses of this nation and the world, supported by the commercial interests, the laboring interests, and the toilers everywhere, we will answer their demand for a gold standard by saying to them: You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns; you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.

He walked back to his chair, in silence, thinking he had failed. Only then, the crowd exploded in praise, a frenzy that took nearly a half hour to quell.

It took five ballots the next day but Bryan carried that day.

Alas, his rhetoric did not carry the election. This key aspect of the Democratic platform more than anything:

We demand the free and unlimited coinage of both silver and gold at the present legal ratio of 16 to 1 without waiting for the aid or consent of any other nation. We demand that the standard silver dollar shall be a full legal tender, equally with gold, for all debts, public and private, and we favor such legislation as will prevent for the future the demonitization of any kind of legal tender by private contract.

killed Democratic aspirations and McKinley reigned. The free silver enthusiasts built a castle of dreams and good intentions, failing to understand that they could not impose their GSR on the rest of the world.

The real outcome of 1896 was the death of any support for the quaint Democratic party belief in small government, sound money, and laissez-fare ‘mind your own business’ attitudes. The wowsers won and the drive for Prohibition would not go away.

Old-time Democrats had voted Republican for the first time in their lives.

The McKinley campaign also succeeded because “those men behind the curtain” were the Morgan and Rockefeller banking groups; $3.5 million war chest had to come from somewhere! One of the stipulations for McKinley was to agree to support the gold standard.

The Populists were down but not out. Another Reform movement began, to solve the problems they perceived in monetary police and their dislike of the gold standard. A grassroots currency reform in the Midwest was suggested in a letter to the Indianapolis Board of Trade – by Mark Hanna, businessman, political manager and also friend of President McKinley, and U.S. Senator from Ohio from 1897 to 1904.

The Indianapolis Monetary Convention began in 1897 with representatives from 26 states and the District of Columbia. The Yale Review noted it was an assembly of “businessmen in general” and not “bankers in particular”.

One of their resolutions suggested a new and improved system of elastic bank credit. Do you see where this is heading?

Meanwhile, the economy had recovered in 1897 and the Progressive Era would soon remake the society.

*

Money in America, Part One « The Burning Platform

Money in America, Part One

A romp through history

First there was the Spanish silver dollar

In colonial times, they used it as de facto money, as did many other places. Other specie was also commonly accepted. But the Spanish silver dollar was the most widely used coin in the colonies. It maintained a reputation as the most honest coin in the world from the 16th century to the 19th.

The early years also saw commodity money, beaver fur, wampum, fish, corn, rice and, most of all, tobacco.

Of course, as an outpost of the British empire, the official money was the British pound, based on a silver standard. Britain also coined gold, regulating its weight to silver ratio, effectively a bimetallic standard.

England also prohibited the colonies from minting coinage. Exporting of English coins was also prohibited – but that did not stop the colonies from obtaining them from other countries.

Fiat money raises its head

Massachusetts, in 1690, needing money to pay its soldiers for a raid on Quebec gone bad, could not raise the funds from Boston merchants. The quick fix was the issue of £7,000 of paper notes, with a promise to redeem in specie accrued from taxation. A year later, they printed £40,000 ‘for the ‘last time’.

No surprise, then, that the paper currency had depreciated by 40% against real money. The government’s answer was to enact a legal tender law.

The unintended but inevitable consequence was one more iteration of Gresham’s Law – Bad money drives out good.

Specie disappeared from the colony. Prices went up, exports declined.

Proving that no idea cannot be repeated, by 1711, Connecticut and Rhode Island had also issued paper money. In the two decades, about 20% more paper had been issued than the silver coinage, which had all but vanished from circulation.

Governmental response? Fines, confiscation of property (asset forfeiture is not new!) and imprisonment were the answers to people refusing fiat at par.

By 1750, all colonies had issued fiat paper, initiating an inflationary boom, followed by deflationary bust. Parliament had attempted to pull the colonies back to hard money and in 1764 required the retirement of paper. The usual doomsayers expected an “absence of money” and ruination of trade. The return of sound money actually enhanced trade, lower prices, more exports and inflow of specie.

As an amusing aside, Maryland issued new fiat in 1733 and distributed almost half of it to the people, to assure its acceptance. They didn’t have helicopters then but surely established the fallacy. Of course, the depreciation was quick.

Private banking in the colonies

The few that appeared in the early days did not last long, for various reasons. For instance, the Massachusetts Land Bank of 1740 issued irredeemible paper notes, and lending on real estate. Within six months, the public was refusing the fiat and Parliament outlawed it.

One wonders at the persistence of inflationary money. For the indebted, typically wealthy businessmen and land owners, a borrowed paper pound today can be paid back with interest in the same paper of less value tomorrow.

Nothing changes.

Money During the Revolution

When a war needs to be financed and the total money supply of the rebel colonies is but $12,000,000 (est.) the quick answer is more fiat! Thus, the irredeemable Continental was born. Initially promised to be retired in seven years by taxes from the states, the first issue in June, 1775, of $2 million had grown to $6 million by the end of the year. In five years, another $225 million had been added of fiat paper.

“Not worth a Continental” proved correct – by 1781, one silver dollar was worth 168 fiat paper notes.

Even worse, various states had issued their own paper money. A total of 210 million more depreciated dollars swelled the money supply.

When the Continental was not accepted by anyone, the Continental Army supplied itself by ‘paying’ with federal certificates, like it or not. Fortunately, when the dust settled, the state and federal governments rescinded taxing the citizens and all fiat vanished into oblivion.

Not precisely money were the Continental Congress issuance of ‘loan certificates’, some $600 million. Issued to pay for merchant supplies, these certificates became a type of currency but depreciated, one silver dollar worth 24 certificate dollars. Some were liquidated at depreciated rates but most became the federal debt.

This need not have happened, as natural attrition could have taken its course.

But no, Robert Morris, wealthy Philadelphia merchant – who had been Minister of Finance to the Continental Congress – had a plan: make the debt at par value to be repaid, principal and interest. This supported his advocacy for the taxing ability of Congress, a notion the Articles of Confederation had not allowed. A younger Alexander Hamilton had been his aide …

Morris introduced a bill to create the first commercial bank which also effectively would be a privately owned central bank. This scheme was chartered on December 31, 1781 by the Congress of the Confederation.

The Bank of North America

opened on January 7, 1782, not surprisingly headed by Robert Morris.

He deposited gold and silver coin of his own wealth, not enough to meet the charter requirements. Fortunately, and still also ‘treasurer’ of the Confederation, he undertook ‘loans’ from France and the Netherlands, of enough gold and silver to satisfy.

The Bank of North America was also set up as a fractional reserve operation and a monopoly to issue paper money. The first deposit account was the government itself, to which he loaned $1.2 million.

It only took a year of excess issuing of paper money – and depreciation – for people to lose confidence. Outside of Philadephia, their notes depreciated. Complaints of foreign influence and favoritism, and unfair practices added fuel to the fire.

The Bank of New York and Massachusetts Bank in Boston arrived in 1784.

Morris lost the central bank role in 1785 and ultimately became a private commercial bank with a charter from the state of Pennsylvania in 1787 .

A new nation, a new money

Custom is powerful – the term ‘dollar’ borne by the Spanish silver coin became the base unit of American money. The Continental Congress decided this in 1785, although the first American coinage was not struck until 1893.

Having had numerous bad experiences with unsupported fiat paper, the framers opted for a monetary system of intrinsic value. Enshrined in the Constitution:

  • Article 1, Section 8
  • 1. Coins; Weights; Measures
    To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures;

Also, Section 10 .1 unconditionally prohibited states from coining money … [nor]  make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts

In 1791, Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton submitted a Report on the Establishment of a Mint”. A year later, Congress passed the Coinage Act of 1792. This established the composition of gold and silver coins at a fixed ratio of 15-to-1, asserted both were legal tender, with the silver dollar and $10 gold eagle as the basic coinage.

Hamilton thought bimetallism a good idea at the time. Keeping both metals active should have increased the supply of money. Alas, Gresham’s Law prevailed – Mexican silver mining increased enough by 1810 to undervalue gold and gold coins virtually disappeared from American usage from then through 1834.

The fixed ratio in the Constitution had not taken into account market variations of the two metals.

The First Bank of the United States

Even before the ‘Mint Report’, Hamilton, who had always wanted a central bank, produced the “Report on a National Bank”. Congress chartered The First Bank of the United States in February 1791 for twenty years.

Hamilton’s real agenda was to initiate the role of paper money, claiming a scarcity of specie.

Showing that continuity and experience is important, Philadelphian Thomas Willing, who had been president of the Bank of North America, was appointed president of this new enterprise. Hamilton had planned a private institution but with the fig leaf of the government owning 20% of the shares.

The new bank’s notes were redeemable on demand and also acceptable for paying taxes. In practice, the operation was fractional reserve banking. Having issued millions of bank notes, and investing heavily in the government itself, the initial $2 million of capital was outmatched by the over $6 million of notes.

Needless to say, monetary inflation unleashed a 72% rise in prices within five years. Eighteen new banks arose in this period.

Enter a Constitutional crisis. In this corner we have Hamilton and the Federalists; adversaries, the Jeffersonian faction. Ultimately, McCulloch v. Maryland before the Supreme Court was ruled in favor of the Hamilton interpretation, ‘implied powers’.

But where did the money come from? a child of the 21st century might ask. All she’s known is Federal Reserve notes, and unlikely to have ever seen a silver certificate,

The real money, of course, was the gold and silver coins made by the mint. State banks were chartered and, in the fractional-reserve mode, were required to keep a certain amount of gold and silver on hand to redeem their paper notes when customers wanted real money.

By 1811, there were 117 state banks. Their combined reserve ratio had fallen to 0.23 due to expansion of easy credit. The recharter bill in Congress that year failed by one vote in the House and one in the Senate.

By 1815, the number of state banks had about doubled. So had their issue of unsupported paper. When New England banks demanded in 1814 that the other banks redeem their notes, the U.S. Government recognized those banks were insolvent in real money terms and allowed them to waive the contractual requirement.

The War of 1812 had been a factor in bank expansion and loose credit and now, de facto fiat paper, which lasted until early 1817.

The Second Bank of the United States

Third time lucky?

As we have seen, the love of an inflationary policy and subsequent depreciation of fiat recurs repeatedly. At this point in time, 232 banks played that game. Rather than bring them to heel, yet another ‘central bank’, the Second Bank of the United States began operation in January, 1817.

Similar to the predecessor, with one-fifth of the shares of this private bank owned by the federal government, this Second Bank enabled the state banks with immediate issuance of easy credit. Its bank notes were redeemable in specie and the notes were effective legal by way of being accepted by the federal government for the paying of taxes.

In practice, however, irredeemable state bank notes continued to circulate and attempts by the Second Bank to ask for specie was countered by ‘hardship’.

In two-and-a-half years of operation the Second Bank held $2.36 million in specie against an issuance of $19.2 million increase of the national money supply. Repeated fraud at two of its branches and no control of distant state banks, continuing their easy credit inflationary policy, led to the Panic of 1819-21. Unintended consequences of loose money reaped the inevitable crisis: rising unemployment, bank failures, mortgages foreclosed, investment, particularly in the western states all but ceased, and trade diminished.

Property values fell as much as half in some areas. The first urban poverty crisis saw debtor’s prison for some; soup kitchens; an estimated one million jobless; charity drives for clothes, shoes, and food; perhaps one-third of the national population of 9 million disadvantaged. Almost everyone blamed the banks. The southrons criticized protective tariffs. They and those of the western states complained about the Second Bank’s money tighterning.

One popular refrain was the ‘high cost of government’ and people demanded reduced state and federal budgets.

The outcome of economic depression led to the development of a new Democratic Party in the mid 1820s. Elderly Thomas Jefferson was onboard for the agenda of restoring sound money, minimal government-backed economics, paying off the national debt, and ultimately anticipating the ending of fraction-reserve banking. Others included Martin van Buren, old-line Virginians, Thomas Hart Benton of Missouri and Andrew Jackson.

Jackson won the election of 1828 and the first step was to attack the Second Bank, considered the initial source of inflation.

“Old Hickory” had won the presidency with a significant popular vote, a true man of the people. In his annual message to Congress in 1829, he declared his intentions toward the Second Bank. The battle lines were drawn. Nichola Biddle, head of the bank, and his attorneys Henry Clay and Daniel Webster, pushed a confrontation in 1831 to derail Jackson’s re-election campaign.

By insisting on an early re-charter, and getting a passing vote in Congress, followed by Jackson’s veto, their plan failed when Congress would not pass said bill over the veto.

Jackson had told Martin van Buren, “The bank is trying to kill me but I will kill it.”

The 1832 election confirmed Jackson’s position with another strong popular vote. It was the people and their president against the bank.

The Second Bank, having been structured like its predecessor, had the 20% public Treasury deposits there in. In 1833, Jackson removed the government money and spread it around to a number of private banks. His adversaries claimed this would produce inflation. The facts are, however, the record of the Second Bank repeated earlier excesses. Biddle’s Second Bank had already created more than enough inflation: the total money supply had nearly doubled in only a few years.

Although wholesale prices had remained relatively steady, this is explained by rising productivity.

Biddle’s Second Bank, having lost its mojo, ended up in 1836 getting a charter from the state of Pennsylvania.

In his second term, Jackson did fail in the goal of ending fractional-reserve banking. Even more significant, however, is that he paid off the national debt. Remember, the debt of the states after the Revolutionary War had become part of that national debt – and had been growing. The amounts due were withdrawn from the Second Bank and pro-rata distributed to the respective states.

A Generation of Monetary Experimentation

Martin van Buren succeeded Jackson in the presidency, and continued their agenda. He proposed an Independent Treasury early in 1837. although it did not pass until 1840. This sound money plan lasted until the Civil War.

The plan as accepted then made the national Treasury totally independent of the banks – it held specie in its own vaults for payment of trade debts and so on. A legal tender clause mandating specie payment was also included; public opinion against this was bipartisan. People always like easy money … and this was one of the reasons van Buren became a one-term president.

The expansion of the money supply in the 1830s stalled due to several factors. The Bank of England, confronted with inflation and the outflow of gold, raised interest rates, tightening its money supply. The resulting credit crunch impacted on American cotton exports; also, export of silver to China (due to that country’s shift to buying opium – a story for another day) dropped.

With trade affected, the Panic of 1837 ensued but ended by 1838 when Bank of England changed policy. Cotton prices rose again,

Meanwhile, state governments exacerbated the 1838 boom by spendthrift projects – “internal improvements” – due to the distribution of federal money in paying off the national debt.

Not only did they spend the unexpected payout, they borrowed and borrowed for more public works!

No one would be surprised that 1839 ushered in a crisis that lasted four more years of deflation overall. Foolish banks failed, uneconomic state projects died. Polk’s Whig administration, having succeeded Martin van Buren’s, elected to bail out the various states in danger of default.

Default in this era of course, was inability to pay gold and silver on demand from customers losing all confidence in fractional-reserve paper.

The Democratic Party continued to support hard-money principles of the Jacksonian persuasion; the Whigs countered with support for easy credit, especially in states issuing bonds. Banks eagerly bought this government, using it to expand their money supply. This in turn expanded the issue of state bonds, debt! States connived in this quid pro quo by permitting suspension of specie redemption and also legal tender laws accepting bank notes for taxes.

The Whigs were also active in various schemes and were fond of state usury laws, leading to more easy credit. Inflation and speculation grew.

The bimetallism trap

To compound money problems, the gold rush in California and new gold from Russia and Australia upset the gold-silver ratio in 1850. With gold cheaper in the market, silver dollars gained around 4-5 percent of true value and thus virtually vanished into arbitrage land. The only silver coinage left in U.S. Circulation were ‘junk silver’, worn Spanish and Mexican coins.

Congress reacted to the problem in 1853, keeping a Constitutional aspect of bimetallism but with a de facto gold standard and debased silver coinage. The silver quarter-dollar began minting and became popular.

By 1857, Congress outlawed the use of foreign coins. That year also saw a Panic due to the usual suspects, inflating money supply and states waiving specie redeeming.

The Civil War and Beyond

Suppose they gave a war and nobody could afford it? That’s the usual case, examples littered history. Lincoln had precedent for issuing an irredeemable currency, the Greenback. During the War of 1812 period, for two-and-a-half years, state and federal government suspended specie payment.

Banks loved this – they could inflate the money supply like there was no tomorrow.

More significantly, the federal government initiated use of greenbacks by outlaw new issue of state bank notes. And the Treasury offered a $150 million bond issue, expecting the state banks to subscribe and pay in specie – but they did not have the gold. ‘Sauce for the goose’, as it were and the Treasury suspended specie payment on its notes. By February, 1862, the Treasury issued the first Greenbacks. And they were declared legal tender.

From 1861’s federal expense of $66 million to $1.3 billion four years later.

To no one’s surprise, save the government experts, the greenbacks depreciated rapidly. Various interventions were tried, Treasury Secretary Chase even sold $11 million of gold bullion to lower the gold premium of greenbacks. The market barely noticed. Then he attempted a foreign exchange effort to lower the British pound to dollar ratio. Fail.

Like beating a dead horse into glue, the last manuever was to forbid gold futures contracts and regulate brokerage sales of gold and speculation. All Chase’s gold legislation succeeded in doing was to drive the value of the greenback further down, ultimately to forty cents in June, 1864.

Congress repealed this legislative mistake at the end of the month – and Secretary Chase found himself replaced.

During the war years, fiat experimentation even affected coinage. Silver coins left the country for better value elsewhere. The ignominy of a debased bronze penny appeared in 1864 also, all better coins had been exported.

The first federal income tax!

To supplement monetary magic, Lincoln signed on August 5, 1861, the first federal income tax law , the Revenue Act. A flat tax of three percent on annual income over $800 was imposed. The wording was carefully chosen to skirt around the Constitution’s limitation on a direct tax.

Proving that no bad idea cannot be improved, the Revenue Act of 1862 was progressive – three percent at $600 income and five over $10,000. This act also was intended to cease in 1866.

Not content with that, Lincoln also imposed additional sales and excise taxes as well as estate taxes. War is expensive! The income tax was finally repealed in 1872.

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Part Two will continue with the inflationary games bankers play. And more.