The Complete Idiot’s Guide To Being Right About Donald Trump

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Posted on 13th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

By Eddie Zipperer, originally published in The Hill

The complete idiot’s guide to being right about Donald Trump

If you operate under the assumption that helium is heavier than the air around you, you’re going to lose your balloon. If you’re smart, you won’t lose many balloons before you change your assumption. If you don’t change your assumption, you’re going to keep losing balloons and start to look pretty stupid in the process.

But it looks like you can’t teach old pundits new paradigms. After presidential candidate Donald Trump finished in second in the Iowa Republican caucus, the media went straight to work picking out a coffin for his campaign, battling it out to see who could write the most definitive obituary. After months of being wrong about Trump, something finally happened to make them look right: All the Iowa polls were wrong — Trump lost! Sure, he scored more Iowa votes than anyone ever — excepting Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), who won Iowa — but he lost. Trump is a loser and this proves it.

It’s hard to blame them for trying to spike the ball in Trump’s face. You’ve seen it before. Your favorite NFL team is down by 50 points. The team finally gets a first down, and the halfback celebrates like he just won the Super Bowl. Everyone except him just laughs and shakes their head. That’s what opinion writers like David Brooks — who wrote a piece declaring that “Donald Trump Isn’t Real” in the aftermath of Iowa — looked like last week. CNN ran a piece by Michael D’Antonio headlined “Donald Trump is a loser.” And the list of similar sentiments is long.

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FOURTH TURNING UPDATE WITH NEIL HOWE

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Posted on 13th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

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Talk about comprehensive. Neil Howe gives his opinion about everything he thinks will happen in this crucial year of 2016. He isn’t optimistic. He is in the midst of writing a new book called The First Turning. I hope we make it there.

Via John Mauldin

The Big Picture

January 2016 Report

All signs point to 2016 being a momentous year on every front, from the shuddering global economy to the stormy upcoming election season. How will the world look by year’s end? BP interviewed Saeculum Research Founder and President Neil Howe to get his take on what’s ahead. (This is an expanded version of the interview we published as a Social Intelligence report on January 6, 2016.)
BP: Neil, 2016 sure began with some big headlines, didn’t it?
NH: Yes, the year began with a bang—and not in a good way. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 suffered their worst 5-day and 10-day start to a year in history. With the market down roughly 8%, we are suddenly back to the “correction” lows of late last summer. China’s Shanghai market entered free fall, with circuit breakers stopping trading on January 6 after only 29 minutes. Beijing had to intervene massively to keep the CNY from following suit. Meanwhile, most of the Sunni Arab nations abruptly broke off diplomatic relations with Iran. And North Korea successfully tested an H bomb, which—Dear Leader Kim Jong Un helpfully, if not quite accurately, reminded the media—“is capable of wiping out the whole territory of the U.S. all at once.”
BP: Wow. “Bang” may be just the right word. Neil, could you give us a sense of what everybody is going to be talking about in 2016?
NH: In January, analysts always predict how the economy will perform over the coming year. Now is no different, especially with the big December announcement that the Federal Reserve is raising short-term interest rates by 25 basis points to between 0.25 and 0.5%. The Fed boldly suggests that interest rates may close in on 1.4% by the end of 2016 and 2.4% by the end of 2017. Spoiler alert: I think this is delusional. The global economy is in no condition to take this medicine. My very safe prediction is that the Fed will either stall or back down. And the risk of U.S. recession by the end of the year? It’s higher than most are estimating: I’d say roughly 50-50.
Abroad, there are signs of progress in international relations, but the overall geopolitical outlook is dangerous. The Middle East has become a maelstrom. Europeans are voting for leaders who want to dismantle Europe. Putin seems to enjoy doing whatever he damn well wants to—while boasting off-the-chart popularity ratings at home. Meanwhile, Americans are left wondering why their country no longer plays a leadership role in world affairs.
These issues only raise the stakes for the upcoming elections. Not that Americans needed more reason to pay attention: Ever since the first slate of primary debates last summer, we haven’t been able to take our eyeballs off this race. We have the prospect of seeing another Clinton in the White House, a highly polarized presidential campaign season, and—oh yeah—Donald Trump endlessly in the headlines.
BP: OK, let’s focus on the economy. You sound a bit more downbeat than most.

PRESIDENTS DAY

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Posted on 13th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

Via Investors.com

QUOTES OF THE DAY

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Posted on 13th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

“All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis. Over and over, with slight variations. Because markets are driven by humans and human nature never changes.”

Jesse Lauriston Livermore

“Professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole; so that teach competitor has to pick not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view. It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of one’s judgement are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practice the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.”

John Maynard Keynes


Question of the Day, Weekend Edition

31 comments

Posted on 12th February 2016 by Back in PA Mike in Economy

Would you use a credit card to get a cash advance for a down payment in a real estate transaction?


EVOLUTION OF MEN

28 comments

Posted on 12th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

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Via Lonely Libertarian


FRIDAY FAIL

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Posted on 12th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

funny fail image valentine's day sign condom hand

dogs,FAIL,Rachel Ray,magazine,food,spacing

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MUSLIM TERRORIST ATTACK IN OHIO – MSM COVERS IT UP

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Posted on 12th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

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A Muslim walks into a deli and asks whether the owner is Jewish or Christian. He is told it is owned by a Jewish man. He leaves and comes back with a machete, hacking up patrons of the deli. The police are baffled by this “random” attack. A Muslim from Somalia attacks a a Jewish deli and the police and MSM can’t figure out the motive. The fucking political correct bullshit in this country is mind numbing.

Cops kill man after machete attack at Ohio deli

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Police shot and killed a man who stormed into a central Ohio restaurant wielding a machete and randomly attacking people as they sat unsuspectingly at their dinner tables, authorities said.

Four people were injured in the brutal attack Thursday evening at Nazareth Restaurant and Deli, a Mediterranean restaurant in Columbus. The victims were taken to an area hospital and were expected to recover.

CBS News has learned that investigators have identified the suspected attacker as Mohammad Barry. CBS News homeland security correspondent Jeff Pegues reports that investigators were running down leads to try to determine if the attack was somehow tied to terrorist organizations.

“There was no rhyme or reason as to who he was going after,” said Columbus police Sgt. Rich Weiner.

Police said the man walked into the restaurant, had a conversation with an employee and then left. He returned about a half hour later. That’s when police said he approached a man and a woman who were sitting just inside the door at a booth and started the attack.

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MURICA IS #1

25 comments

Posted on 12th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

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Thank God for the Department of Education and Common Core. No child is being left behind in our quest for idiocy. I’m sure paying union teachers more money will solve our problems. Free college for morons who can’t add 2 + 2 will be the answer.

Infographic: The Countries Struggling The Most With Math | Statista
You will find more statistics at Statista


THE DEMOCRAT “FREE SHIT” DEBATE IN 90 SECONDS

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Posted on 12th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

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Impact of automation puts up to 85% of jobs in developing countries at risk

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Posted on 12th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

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Via Kurzweil

The risk of jobs being replaced by automation varies by country (credit: World Bank Development Report, 2016)

A new report from the Oxford Martin School and Citi considers the risks of job automation to developing countries, estimated to range from 55% in Uzbekistan to 85% in Ethiopia — a substantial share in major emerging economies, including China and India (77% and 69% respectively).

The report, Technology at Work v2.0: The Future Is Not What It Used to Be, builds on 2013 research by Oxford Martin School’s Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, who found that nearly half of U.S. jobs could be at risk of computerization (as KurzweilAI reported), and on the first Technology at Work report, published in 2015.

The Future is Not What is Used to Be provides in-depth analysis of the vulnerabilities of countries and cities to job automation, explores what automation will mean for traditional models of economic growth, and considers how governments can prepare for the potentially disruptive impacts of job automation on society.

47% of US jobs are at risk from automation, but not all cities have the same job risk (credit: Berger, Frey and Osborne/Citi Research report, 2015)

Key areas of analysis in the report include:

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The Curious Case Of The “Strong” January Retail Sales: It Was All In The Seasonal Adjustment

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Posted on 12th February 2016 by Administrator in Economy

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