Why 2016 Was Not The Worst Year Ever
Tag: 2016
2016: The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year
Guest Post by John W. Whitehead
“What’s past is prologue.” ― William Shakespeare, The Tempest
What a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year this has been.
Endless wars. Toxic politics. Violence. Hunger. Police shootings. Mass shootings. Economic downturns. Political circuses. Senseless tragedies. Loss. Heartache. Intolerance. Prejudice. Hatred. Apathy. Meanness. Cruelty. Poverty. Inhumanity. Greed.
Here’s just a small sampling of what we’ve suffered through in 2016.
After three years of increasingly toxic politics, the ruling oligarchy won and “we the people” lost. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the election. Donald Trump won the White House while the American people lost any hope of ending the corporate elite’s grip on the government.
The government declared war on so–called “fake news” while continuing to peddle its own brand of propaganda. President Obama quietly re-upped the National Defense Authorization Act, including a provision that establishes a government agency to purportedly counter propaganda and disinformation.
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Stucky QOTD — The Great Debate
This may have been discussed and/or asked before. However, The Debate Of The Ages is today. Sooo ,,,
Q: What does Donald Trump need to do to win the debate?
I believe Buchanan’s article below is spot on the money. Neither candidate will win because of their mastery of the supposed issues. Buchanan gives the examples of JFK and Ronnie.
— “Kennedy won the first debate, …. because he appeared more lucid, likable and charismatic, more mature than folks had thought.”
— “Reagan won his debate with Carter because of his sunny disposition and demeanor and his “There you go again!” airy dismissal of Carter’s nit-picking contradicted the malevolent media-created caricatures of the Gipper as a dangerous primitive or an amiable dunce.”
There ya go, Donald, make ’em like ya!! Show them that the MSM-whores caricature of you as a (fill-in-the-invective) is pure bullshit. Do that, and the election is in the bag for you.
SAFE SPACES
SAFE SPACES CIRCA 1910
SAFE SPACES CIRCA 2016
Why Donald J. Trump Will Be the Next President of the United States
Trump often emerges on stage from behind a dark navy curtain. That is a symbolically rich move, and it is a symbolism whose deeper meaning and importance throws others off, especially the likes of Hillary Clinton. This is the puppet master, the man behind the curtain, the campaign donor and buyer of favours and influence, who has suddenly decided to step out into the spotlight, and to not only be seen but to announce his role as a former puppet master, now turned rival. That has to ruin the whole show. The move is so deeply subversive, that one has to wonder just how many have truly appreciated its import.
Taking the bait, by agreeing to provide an explanation of why on several occasions since last September I have been voicing my always more certain belief that Donald Trump will be the next president of the US, is not the same thing as saying he should or should not be the president. The primary motivation in producing this is to argue against the self-satisfied misconceptions of status quo representatives, who “refuse to adapt to reality,” whose “explanations” take the dominant system for granted, and who write as if from the depths of a permanent static equilibrium. It is also written as an expression of surprise—surprise that so many in the US, even if a minority overall, seem to have understood so little about their own country, probably because again they take so much for granted and self-confidence has been fossilized as orthodoxy.
Here then are some of the major reasons why Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States, and arguments against commonly proffered reasons for his demise. The numbering below does not suggest any ranking—except for the first item in the list, which I would rank as my top reason.
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EVERYBODY SUCKS
WILL THE LIBERTARIAN PARTY MATTER IN 2016?
Last Friday night, proving what a party animal I really am, I watched the Libertarian debate during the John Stossel Show. It was a one hour part one of a two part debate. The second part will be tonight. The three candidates are Gary Johnson, the 2012 Libertarian candidate & former Governor of New Mexico; John McAfee, billionaire security software creator; and Austin Petersen, a young unknown quantity.
Stossel is a hard core libertarian, and his show is one of the few Fox shows I can stomach. It was an entertaining hour. All three hold views I generally agree with. Johnson is the odds on favorite to win the nomination again, as he has the best name recognition and track record. I found the debate interesting and completely the opposite of the Republican and Democrat circus debates. There was no yelling, screaming, accusations, or gotcha questions from faux journalists. Stossel asked good questions and the candidates answered them honestly.
Truthfully, none of the three could ever inspire a movement. Ron Paul is more of a Libertarian than any of them. Petersen was the most passionate, quoting the founding fathers at every opportunity. But he is in his thirties, hasn’t done anything of substance, and comes across as naive and child like. McAfee has certainly accomplished stuff in his life. He created a security software company and made a billion dollars. He was also on the run from the law in South America on murder charges, that were never proved. He comes across as a little weird. His statement that we are already at war with China was odd for a Libertarian. He made a few odd statements and joked with Petersen about meeting in a gay bar.
Johnson is the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination again. Denninger hates him. He comes across as if he is smoking some of that weed he has been selling. He has no charisma, no passion, and no guiding principles. He seems alright with forcing businesses to sell to people they choose not to sell to. He is Libertarian-lite. He got the most votes of a Libertarian candidate in history at 1.3 million in 2012. That amounted to 1% of the vote. I voted for him as my protest vote.
The story below was a shock to me. Johnson is currently polling in double digits. The biggest detriment to the Libertarian candidate is not getting to participate in the debates. They need to be polling at 15% or higher to get invited to the debates. The only way to explain his double digit support at this point is the absolute hatred that many Americans have for Clinton and Trump. There is no middle ground. You either love them or hate them. This does open up a door for an alternative candidate. If Ron Paul ran as a Libertarian he would get more than 15%. Those debates would be for the ages.
But, it’s not to be. Watch part two of the Libertarian debate tonight at 9:00 on Fox Business Network and see what you think of these guys. I hope Johnson doesn’t kiss McAfee again, like he did in part one.
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2016 VOTER’S GUIDE
Hat tip Joe
WILL HISPANICS SINK TRUMP IN THE GENERAL ELECTION?
The chart probably makes it look worse than it really is for Trump. Hispanics lean Democrat by 65% to 35% anyway. There are only three states where their votes will matter much. California has a huge amount of Hispanics (14.4 million) and would vote for Hillary anyway. Texas has 9.8 million Hispanics, but went to the Republicans by 57% to 43% in 2012. Trump will win this state. Florida is always a key state and has 4.4 million Hispanics. Trump has an excellent chance based on his landslide victory over Rubio last week. The rest of the Hispanic population is mainly in the urban Democrat controlled shitholes. They won’t swing anything.
You will find more statistics at Statista
It should be expected that U.S. Hispanics have a fairly negative view of Donald Trump, given his highly controversial comments about Mexican immigration. Gallup has confirmed just how deeply unpopular the Republican frontrunner really is, finding that 77 percent of Hispanics have an unfavorable view of him. By contrast, 59 percent of them have a favorable view of Hillary Clinton. Trump has characterized Mexican immigrants as drug traffickers and rapists.
He has also called for a wall to be constructed along the U.S. border with Mexico, which America’s southern neighbor should finance. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto recently saying there is no scenario where his country would pay for Trump’s wall.
IT’S NOT 2008 – IT’S WORSE
FOURTH TURNING UPDATE WITH NEIL HOWE
Talk about comprehensive. Neil Howe gives his opinion about everything he thinks will happen in this crucial year of 2016. He isn’t optimistic. He is in the midst of writing a new book called The First Turning. I hope we make it there.
The Big Picture
January 2016 Report
All signs point to 2016 being a momentous year on every front, from the shuddering global economy to the stormy upcoming election season. How will the world look by year’s end? BP interviewed Saeculum Research Founder and President Neil Howe to get his take on what’s ahead. (This is an expanded version of the interview we published as a Social Intelligence report on January 6, 2016.)
BP: Neil, 2016 sure began with some big headlines, didn’t it?
NH: Yes, the year began with a bang—and not in a good way. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 suffered their worst 5-day and 10-day start to a year in history. With the market down roughly 8%, we are suddenly back to the “correction” lows of late last summer. China’s Shanghai market entered free fall, with circuit breakers stopping trading on January 6 after only 29 minutes. Beijing had to intervene massively to keep the CNY from following suit. Meanwhile, most of the Sunni Arab nations abruptly broke off diplomatic relations with Iran. And North Korea successfully tested an H bomb, which—Dear Leader Kim Jong Un helpfully, if not quite accurately, reminded the media—“is capable of wiping out the whole territory of the U.S. all at once.”
BP: Wow. “Bang” may be just the right word. Neil, could you give us a sense of what everybody is going to be talking about in 2016?
NH: In January, analysts always predict how the economy will perform over the coming year. Now is no different, especially with the big December announcement that the Federal Reserve is raising short-term interest rates by 25 basis points to between 0.25 and 0.5%. The Fed boldly suggests that interest rates may close in on 1.4% by the end of 2016 and 2.4% by the end of 2017. Spoiler alert: I think this is delusional. The global economy is in no condition to take this medicine. My very safe prediction is that the Fed will either stall or back down. And the risk of U.S. recession by the end of the year? It’s higher than most are estimating: I’d say roughly 50-50.
Abroad, there are signs of progress in international relations, but the overall geopolitical outlook is dangerous. The Middle East has become a maelstrom. Europeans are voting for leaders who want to dismantle Europe. Putin seems to enjoy doing whatever he damn well wants to—while boasting off-the-chart popularity ratings at home. Meanwhile, Americans are left wondering why their country no longer plays a leadership role in world affairs.
These issues only raise the stakes for the upcoming elections. Not that Americans needed more reason to pay attention: Ever since the first slate of primary debates last summer, we haven’t been able to take our eyeballs off this race. We have the prospect of seeing another Clinton in the White House, a highly polarized presidential campaign season, and—oh yeah—Donald Trump endlessly in the headlines.
BP: OK, let’s focus on the economy. You sound a bit more downbeat than most.
BERNIE 2016
2016 Economic Predictions: Year of the Epocalypse
Guest Post by David Haggith
An economic apocalypse upon us. My 2016 economic predictions provide the full explanation as to why 2016 will be the year of the Epocalypse — a word that encompasses the roots “economic, epoch, collapse” and “apocalypse.” I needed a word big enough to describe all that is about to befall the world in 2016. When you see the towering forces that are prevailing against failing global economic architecture and the pit of debt beneath that structure, as laid out here, I think you’ll recognize that the Epocalypse is here, and it is everywhere. The Great Collapse has already begun.
What follows are the megatrends that will increasingly gang up in the first part of 2016 to stomp the deeply flawed global economy down into its own hole of debt. The economic collapse that is already developing includes the US economy and the US stock market that is now collapsing from the external forces and internal vacuum that I’ve been writing about for a few years here.
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HAPPY “CHINESE” NEW YEAR
Isn’t it funny how those in power feel the need to shut down the free market when stocks plunge by 7%? Would they shut down the market if prices had soared by 7%? Welcome to 2016 folks. The markets have been rigged for years. The debt levels are unsustainable. The jig is up. Shit is hitting the fan. Just buy and hold. That’ll work out real well for ya.
China Halts Stock Trading For Day After Entire Market Crashes
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 01:11 -0500
Following the initial halt in CSI-300 Futures at the 5% limit down level, the afternoon session opened to more carnage and amid the worst ‘first day of the year’ in at least 15 years, Chinese stocks collapsed further to a 7% crash. At 1334 local time, stock trading was halted for the rest of the day across all exchanges (at least two hours early).
As Bloomberg reports,
Chinese stock trading was halted for the rest of the day after the CSI 300 Index plunged more than 7 percent.
Trading of shares and index futures was halted from about 1:34 p.m. local time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Stocks fell as manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month and investors anticipated the end of a ban on share sales by major stakeholders.
Under the mechanism which only became effective Monday, a move of 5 percent in the CSI 300 triggers a 15-minute halt for stocks, options and index futures, while a move of 7 percent close the market for the rest of the day. The CSI 300 of companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell as much as 7.02 percent before trading was suspended.
Not a happy new year…
Dow futures are now down over 150 points from NYE close, Gold and Treasuries are bid, and offshore Yuan has plunged most since the August devaluation.
More Ominous Charts For 2016
If 2015 was the year in which no investment strategy worked, 2016 is looking like the year in which all economic policies fail. Already, at what should be the blow-off peak of a long expansion, US corporate profits are instead rolling over:
In recent quarterly reports, most companies blame their dimming fortunes on the strong dollar’s impact on foreign sales, an assertion that’s borne out by recent declines in industrial production. We’re selling less real stuff abroad, so factories are making less:
The huge bright spot in an otherwise bleak manufacturing landscape is auto sales, which have snapped back nicely:
Trump – the Next President?
Donald Trump has surged to 36% in the polls driving the political pundits crazy. After more than 30 years of dealing directly with politicians around the world, I must say one thing. Politicians NEVER will admit a mistake. No matter what, they will always follow a single course simply because they declared that direction from the outset. So we will not see a reform of the Euro but authoritarianism to force it to work. We will not see Obama back-down from trying to overthrow Assad despite the fact this will lead to ISIS controlling Syria and creating even more of a problem if not World War III. Politicians do not change direction.
Trump being a businessman, is not cut from the same cloth. Perhaps he would change the direction we are headed in and would actually negotiate with Putin. His risk is that of assassination for those really in power Behind the Curtain do not want to lose the reins or power. They would have him killed before the give up control and playing warlord.
One thing is clear. Trump is at least a shot at making a change compared to Hillary and Bush. Looks like the political upset for Washington predicted by our computer way back in 1985 for 2016 will be spot on. All it takes is turning the economy down to upset politics.
Trump actually has more support than most incumbent political parties in any other government worldwide. This is illustrating that indeed 2015.75 was by far the peak in government on a major global scale.