GREY CHAMPION ASSUMES COMMAND (PART TWO)

In Part One of this article I discussed the arrival of Grey Champions in previous Fourth Turnings; their attributes, deficiencies, and leadership skills; and why Donald Trump is the Grey Champion of this Fourth Turning – whether you like it or not. Now I will try to make sense of what could happen next.

“Our movement is about replacing a failed and corrupt political establishment with a new government controlled by you, the American people. The establishment has trillions of dollars at stake in this election. For those who control the levers of power in Washington and for the global special interests, they partner with these people that don’t have your good in mind. The political establishment that is trying to stop us is the same group responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal immigration and economic and foreign policies that have bled our country dry.

It’s a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities. The only thing that can stop this corrupt machine is you. The only force strong enough to save our country is us. The only people brave enough to vote out this corrupt establishment is you, the American people.” Donald Trump

Seventy year old Donald Trump has assumed the Grey Champion flagstaff. In an increasingly chaotic world, normal working class Americans in flyover country were seeking a leader who could bring order, defeat the corrupt establishment, make tough decisions, and capture the zeitgeist of this moment in history. The ruling elite oligarchs and their fawning minions, occupying their strongholds in New York, California, Illinois, and D.C., are infuriated the peasants have dared to resist. In their secretive secure spaces, the elites are plotting with one purpose in mind – this uprising must be quelled.

Continue reading “GREY CHAMPION ASSUMES COMMAND (PART TWO)”

More Signs Of The “Strong US Consumer” Emerge As Auto Repossessions Soar

Tyler Durden's picture

A quick glance at recent U.S. auto sales would imply that all is well in autoworld.  Sure, sales have stagnated for about a year but they’re still near all-time highs, right?

Auto Sales

 

That said, a look just beneath the surface reveals a slightly different take on the U.S. auto industry.  As the Financial Times recently pointed out, auto repossessions in the US are soaring and, with the exception of the “great recession” in 2008 and 2009, stand at the highest levels recorded in 20 years.

Continue reading “More Signs Of The “Strong US Consumer” Emerge As Auto Repossessions Soar”

ALL TIME HIGHS

The stock market has reached new all-time highs this week, just two weeks after plunging over the BREXIT result. The bulls are exuberant as they dance on the graves of short-sellers and the purveyors of doom. This is surely proof all is well in the country and the complaints of the lowly peasants are just background noise. Record highs for the stock market must mean the economy is strong, consumers are confident, and the future is bright.

All the troubles documented by myself and all the other so called “doomers” must have dissipated under the avalanche of central banker liquidity. Printing fiat and layering more unpayable debt on top of old unpayable debt really was the solution to all our problems. I’m so relieved. I think I’ll put my life savings into Amazon and Twitter stock now that the all clear signal has been given.

Technical analysts are giving the buy signal now that we’ve broken out of a 19 month consolidation period. Since the entire stock market is driven by HFT supercomputers and Ivy League MBA geniuses who all use the same algorithm in their proprietary trading software, the lemming like behavior will likely lead to even higher prices. Lance Roberts, someone whose opinion I respect, reluctantly agrees we could see a market melt up:

“Wave 5, “market melt-ups” are the last bastion of hope for the “always bullish.” Unlike, the previous advances that were backed by improving earnings and economic growth, the final wave is pure emotion and speculation based on “hopes” of a quick fundamental recovery to justify market overvaluations. Such environments have always had rather disastrous endings and this time, will likely be no different.”

As Benjamin Graham, a wise man who would be scorned and ridiculed by today’s Ivy League educated Wall Street HFT scum, sagely noted many decades ago:

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

Continue reading “ALL TIME HIGHS”

THE GREAT STUDENT LOAN SCAM

Doug Short quantifies the amount owed to the government for student loans, but he doesn’t discuss the absolute fact that hundreds of billions will never be repaid. The Obama administration is solely responsible for this disaster and they don’t give a shit. Keeping millions of morons in school artificially lowers the already fake unemployment figures. Doling out billions in loans to functionally illiterate dumbasses is a perfectly acceptable liberal solution.

The government is hiding the true disaster in plain sight. Obama has the balls to declare that “only” 11.6% of student loans are in default. Now that’s funny. Here are the facts:

  • Total student loan debt outstanding of $1.32 trillion.
  • The Federal government is owed $972 billion, up from the $945.6 billion in Doug’s article.
  • Loans in official default of $51 billion.
  • Loans officially in repayment of $400 billion – the other $500 billion isn’t due because the students are still in school or the government says they don’t have to pay because they have a good excuse (like the dog ate their homework).

According to the government that makes the default rate a high, but reasonable 11.6%. One problem. The total amount of debt that should be in repayment is $600 billion, not $400 billion. There is $200 billion of student loan deb that should be being paid back, but the government has either allowed forbearance or deferment. The reasons allowed for these categories are unemployment, non-full time job, or the ever popular financial hardship.

So in layman terms, that means that $200 billion is in DEFAULT. They aren’t paying because they can’t pay. Therefore, the true default rate is 38%, not 11.6%. Obama and his minions prefer the BIG LIE when reporting any statistic. And what’s worse, this is after shifting $200 billion of debt to their new and improved repayment programs with Orwellian names like: Income-contingent plan, Income-based plan, Pay As You Earn. 

Obama and his Keynesian acolytes are doing everything in their power to shift hundreds of billions in bad loans onto the backs of taxpayers. Every time one of these fraudulent for profit diploma mills goes bankrupt or is charged with fraud by the government, they relieve the debt of the morons who were stupid enough to enroll in these criminal institutions. Relieving their debt means you pay. Easy peasy. Who could have possibly figured out the University of Phoenix, Corinthian, Devry, ITT, and the rest of the for profits were a fraud? 

Obama continues to dole out over $100 billion per year in future bad debt to people intellectually incapable of succeeding in college, with no oversight, no realistic chance of getting repaid, and no concern for the massive budget implications. The losses to taxpayers will be in excess of $300 billion. So it goes. 

 

Guest Post by Doug Short


Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam’s financial accounts?

  • A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets
  • B) Total Mortgages
  • C)Taxes Receivable
  • D) Student Loans

The correct answer, as of the latest quarterly data, is … Student Loans.

Continue reading “THE GREAT STUDENT LOAN SCAM”

China Proposes Unprecedented Nationalization Of Insolvent Companies: Banks Will Equitize Non-Performing Loans

Tyler Durden's picture

In what may be the biggest news of the day, and certainly with far greater implications than whatever Mario Draghi will announce in a few hours when we will again witness the ECB doing not “whatever it takes” but “whatever it can do”, moments ago Reuters reported that China is preparing for an unprecedented overhaul in how it treats it trillions in non-performing loans.

Recall that as we first wrote last summer, and as subsequently Kyle Bass made it the centerpiece of his “short Yuan” investment thesis, the “neutron bomb” in the heart of China’s impaired financial system is the trillions – officially at $614 billion but realistically anywhere between 8% and 20% of China’s total $35 trillion in bank assets – in non-performing loans. It is the unknown treatment of these NPLs that has been the greatest threat to China’s just as vast deposit base amounting to well over $20 trillion, which has been the fundamental catalyst behind China’s record capital flight as depositors have been eager to move their savings as far from China’s domestic banks as possible.

As a result, conventional thinking such as that proposed by Bass, Ray Dalio, KKR and many others, speculated that China will have to devalue its currency in order to inflate away what is fundamentally an excess debt problem as the alternative is unleashing a massive debt default tsunami and “admitting” to the world just how insolvent China’s state-owned banks truly are, not to mention leading to the layoffs of tens of millions of workers by these zombie companies.

However, China now appears to be taking a surprisingly different track, and according to a Reuters report China’s central bank is preparing regulations that would allow commercial banks to swap non-performing loans of companies for stakes in those firms. Reuters sources said the release of a new document explaining the regulatory change was imminent.

According to Reuters, the move would represent, “on paper, a way for indebted corporates to reduce their leverage, reducing the cost of servicing debt and making them more worthy of fresh credit.”

It gets better.

Taxpayers To Lose Billions On Student Loan Refinancing

Tyler Durden's picture

Monday marked the beginning of what could end up being one of the largest taxpayer-funded bailouts in history. On the heels of Corinthian Colleges’ move to shutter its remaining campuses after government investigations tied to deceptive practices forced the school to wind down operations last year, thousands of students have appealed to the Department of Education to have their federal student debt forgiven.

The initial joint petition sent to Secretary of Education Arne Duncan came from dozens of consumer and labor organizations claiming to represent some 80,000 aggrieved students seeking to have their loans discharged on the basis that the government’s move to close the school was the result of Corinthian’s fraudulent practices.

Initially, the Education Department wasn’t sure how to proceed, but after two weeks of apparent deliberation, the decision was made that students who attended schools run by Corinthian would be eligible to have their federal student debt forgiven, a move that could cost taxpayers some $3.6 billion.

Should the government crackdown on for-profit institutions continue, the taxpayer bill could run into the tens, if not hundreds of billions. For the Education Department, it’s a choice between eradicating fraud and saddling taxpayers with the bill once the schools are closed.

Continue reading “Taxpayers To Lose Billions On Student Loan Refinancing”

BEIJING WE’VE GOT A PROBLEM

The Chinese stock market hit a four year high today at 3,020. This is up 53% since the middle of 2013 low and up 48% in the last six months. I guess this must mean the Chinese economy is operating on all cylinders. If you think so, you’d be wrong. Barron’s interviewed a no-nonsense woman who has lived, worked and analyzed China from within since 1985. Anne Stevenson-Yang has spent the bulk of her professional life there working as a journalist, magazine publisher, and software executive, with stints in between heading up the U.S. Information Technology office and the China operations of the U.S.-China Business Council. She’s now research director of J Capital, an outfit that works for foreign investors in China doing fundamental research on local companies and tracking macroeconomic developments.

This lady is about as blunt as you can get about Chinese fraud, lies, mal-investment, and data manipulation. The entire Chinese economic miracle is a fraud. The reforms are false. The leaders are corrupt and as evil as ever. The entire edifice is built upon a Himalayan mountain of bad debt.

The slave labor manufacturer for the world’s mal-investments since 2008 make Japan look like pikers.

China, for all its talk about economic reform, is in big trouble. The old model of relying on export growth and heavy investment to power the economy isn’t working anymore. Sure, the nation has been hugely successful over recent decades in providing its people with literacy, a decent life, basic health care, shelter, and safe cities. But starting in 2008, China sought to counter global recession with huge amounts of ill-advised investment in redundant industrial capacity and vanity infrastructure projects—you know, airports with no commercial flights, highways to nowhere, and stadiums with no teams. The country is now submerged by the tsunami of bad debt that begets further unhealthy credit growth to service this debt.

The BLS should take lessons from the Chinese government in data falsification. But, the American MSM dutifully reports the Chinese data as if it was real. Faux journalism at its finest.

People are crazy if they believe any government statistics, which, of course, are largely fabricated. In China, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle of physics holds sway, whereby the mere observation of economic numbers changes their behavior. For a time we started to look at numbers like electric-power production and freight traffic to get a line on actual economic growth because no one believed the gross- domestic-product figures. It didn’t take long for Beijing to figure this out and start doctoring those numbers, too.

Real numbers from the real economy and real companies reveal the truth about the Chinese economy. If revenues are falling, why is the Chinese stock market up 48% in the last six months? The same reason the U.S. stock market is up. Rampant speculation created by blind faith in central bankers and central banks buying stocks.

I’d be shocked if China is currently growing at a rate above, say, 4%, and any growth at all is coming from financial services, which ultimately depend on sustained growth in the rest of the economy. Think about it: Property sales are in decline, steel production is falling, commercial long-and short-haul vehicle sales are continuing to implode, and much of the growth in GDP is coming from huge rises in inventories across the economy. We track the 400 Chinese consumer companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and in the third quarter, their gross revenues fell 4% from a year ago. This is hardly a vibrant economy.

The Chinese are learning the same thing as Americans. Stimulus does nothing for the average person or the real economy. It benefits crony capitalists and crony communists. It results in mal-investment, booming stock markets and ultimately a bust – that will negatively impact the average person.

By our calculations, since June the central government directly and indirectly has added more than $400 billion of stimulus and relaxed lending terms for housing purchases. Yet, every spasm of new stimulus seems less and less effective in boosting the economy. So most likely, China is sinking into a deflationary recession that’s increasing in speed and may take some time to run its course. Investors have lost faith in the property market, which alone comprises about 20% of GDP, when taking into account the entire supply chain, from iron-ore production to construction to related financial services and appliance sales. Employment and wage compensation will suffer. Consumption will continue to suffer. There’s even an outside possibility that China’s economic miracle could end up in a fiery crash landing, if a surge in banking-system loan defaults outruns government regulators’ attempt to contain such a credit crisis and restore financial confidence.

The diminishing effectiveness of Keynesian claptrap projects is evident for all to see.

The giant government economic-stimulus programs since 2008 are rapidly losing their effectiveness. The reason is simple. Much of the money has been squandered in money-losing industrial projects and vanity infrastructure spending that make no economic sense beyond supplying temporary bump-ups in GDP growth. China is riding an involuntary credit treadmill where much new money has to be hosed into the economy just to sustain ever-mounting bad-debt totals. Capital efficiency, or the amount of capital it takes to generate a unit of GDP growth, has soared as a result.

Nothing like 50 million unoccupied housing units to create the greatest housing bust in world history. Maybe Blackstone can work its buy to rent strategy in China. It’s worked so well here in the U.S.

The Chinese home real estate market, mostly units in high-rise buildings, is truly bizarre. Many Chinese regard apartments as capital-gains machines rather than sources of shelter. In fact, there are 50 million units in China that are owned but vacant. The owners won’t rent them because used apartments suffer an immediate haircut in value. It’s as if the government created a new asset class that no one lives in. This fact gives lie to the commonly held myth that the buildout of all these empty towers and ghost cities is a Chinese urbanization play. The only city folk who don’t own housing are the millions of migrant laborers continuously flocking to Chinese cities. Yet, they can’t afford the new housing.

China should rename themselves Bad Debts R Us. I’m sure they can keep the bad debt balls in the air for another decade. Right?

Interestingly, liquidity seems to be a growing problem in China. Chinese corporations have taken on $1.5 trillion in foreign debt in the past year or so, where previously they had none. A lot of it is short term. If defaults start to cascade through the economy, it will be more difficult for China to hide its debt problems now that foreign investors are involved. It’s here that a credit crisis could start. Bad debt in China never seems to get written down. The huge pile of nonperforming bank loans that Beijing assumed earlier in the millennium in order to be able to take its major banks public still sits on the balance sheets of various asset-management companies.

China is still an evil communist nation that disregards human rights, murders its citizens, crushes dissent, and suppresses free speech. Other than that, they are a great bunch of guys.

In my opinion, the press is somewhat guilty of willing suspension of disbelief on developments in China. Xi’s agenda of Confucian [moral] purification has nothing to do with opening up the economy or social reform. He wants to bolster the power of the Communist Party and tamp down the cynicism about the system that is increasing in China. This explains in large part his bellicosity in the South China Sea, quashing of dissent on the Internet and elsewhere, and heavy-handed attacks on non-Han populations like the Uighurs. He openly disdains Western democratic values. As for Xi’s much-ballyhooed anti-corruption campaign inside China, it offends me that international media depict it as a good-governance effort. What’s really going on is an old-style party purge reminiscent of the 1950s and 1960s with quota-driven arrests, summary trials, mysterious disappearances, and suicides, which has already entrapped, by our calculations, 100,000 party operatives and others. The intent is not moral purification by the Xi administration but instead the elimination of political enemies and other claimants to the economy’s spoils.

Nothing like a little blunt truth on the day the Chinese stock market hits a four year high. Nothing but smoggy skies ahead.

BOOMING AUTO SALES & ALL IT TOOK WAS ZERO DOWN ZERO INTEREST SEVEN YEAR SUBPRIME LOANS

Thank God there are no consequences to doling out long term loans to people with bad credit in order to boost sales for a rapidly depreciating piece of machinery. This strategy never turns out bad. Right?

The size of loans for new and used cars is at an all-time high. It is now $27,500. The average monthly payment for a new vehicle, also increased $10 to $467 in Q2 2014. Over 20% of the new car loans in the last year have been to subprime deadbeat borrowers. Over 50% of all used car loans in the last year have been to subprime deadbeat borrowers. Of all new vehicles sold in Q2 2014, leases accounted for a record high 25.6 percent, up from 23.4 percent the previous year. This sure sounds like a healthy thriving auto market.

As usual, there are consequences to every dumbass action. The MSM will downplay the rising risks and the rapidly rising bad debts until the entire clusterfuck blows up “unexpectedly”. Loaning deadbeats $20,000 to $40,000 for a vehicle that depreciates by 10% when you drive it off the lot when they have no means to make a $300 to $500 per month loan payment always ends well. With loan to value ratios of 125%, repossession doesn’t pay the bills. The cracks in the dam are clearly evident. It’s beginning to spring leaks. The deluge is yet to come, but it is coming.

The total balance of loans that are 60-days delinquent has increased by $859 million since Q2 2013, while the balance of 30-day delinquent loans has increased by $2.8 billion from a year earlier. The overall automotive repossession rate saw a significant increase in the second quarter of 2014, jumping more than 70 percent to 0.62 percent from a year earlier.

I predict booming business for the repossession industry over the next three years.

U.S. consumers turn to auto loans at a record rate

NEW YORK Wed Sep 3, 2014 8:59am EDT

A group of Chevrolet Camaro cars for sale is pictured at a car dealership in Los Angeles, California April 1, 2014. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni

A group of Chevrolet Camaro cars for sale is pictured at a car dealership in Los Angeles, California April 1, 2014.

Credit: Reuters/Mario Anzuoni

(Reuters) – A record number of U.S. consumers are taking out loans to buy cars, especially those purchasing used vehicles, according to data released on Wednesday.

In the second quarter, 85 percent of new car purchases and 53.8 percent of used car purchases were financed, according to data from Experian Plc (EXPN.L), an information provider.

That was up 0.5 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points, respectively from the same period in 2013.

Additionally, the size of auto loan amounts and monthly payments continued to rise, especially for used cars. Since the second quarter of 2013, the average used vehicle loan rose 1.9 percent to $18,258 and the average monthly payment on such vehicles rose 1.1 percent to $355, both all-time highs.

“More and more consumers, especially those that are credit challenged, are turning to the used vehicle market as a viable option to purchase their next car,” said Melinda Zabritski, senior director of automotive finance for Experian, in a statement.

Banks were the largest lenders to consumers buying used cars, financing 35.6 percent of all such purchases, or 0.8 percentage points less than the second quarter of last year.

In recent years banks have begun to focus more on the used car market as automakers’ in-house financing arms came to dominate the new car market. Such “captive” finance companies made more than one out of every two new car loans in the second quarter, according to Experian.

Regulators have become more concerned with banks’ willingness to lengthen terms on car loans, lend to borrowers with lower credit scores and give out loans that are larger than vehicles are worth.

In addition, the U.S. Department of Justice has started investigating subprime auto loans that companies such as General Motors Co’s (GM.N) auto financing arm and Santander Consumer Holdings USA Inc (SC.N) have made and securitized since 2007.

But at least in the second quarter, the share of both new car and used car loans that went to borrowers with subprime credit scores declined, according to Experian.

“Lenders are still showing cautionary signs when lending to the subprime market and keeping their risk at manageable levels,” Zabritski said.

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) remained the largest U.S. auto lender in the second quarter with a market share of 5.75 percent, down from 5.89 percent a year prior.

Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) surged past JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) to become the third largest U.S. auto lender after Ally Financial Inc (ALLY.N). The McLean, Virginia-based bank’s share of the used car market rose from 3.77 percent to 4.20 percent.

 

TWO CANARIES IN THE CONSUMER COAL MINE

First we have good old Darden Restaurants, purveyor of processed slop to the obese endless bread stick addicted middle class. They pre-announced that they will lose $20 million this quarter. It seems the problem was not just their recently shit canned Red Lobster division. If there really has been excellent job growth as we have been told by Obama and the MSM, why does traffic continue to plunge at the formerly popular Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse? All those great jobs must translate into wage increases and disposable income. Right? The results of this middle class dining chain, along with the continued decline in McDonalds sales are a canary in the coal mine. The middle class has run out of disposable income and is no longer disposing of something it doesn’t have.

Look at the numbers in those charts. Look at how much lower the traffic is than total sales, particularly for Longhorn. Do you know what that means? Longhorn is a steakhouse. Beef prices are at all-time highs. These restaurants are jacking up prices big time. So not only has the middle class run out of disposable income, but real inflation in the real world is raging.

I had never heard of Conn’s until this morning. They are evidently a Texas based retailer with 86 stores selling appliances, furniture and electronics. They have been growing rapidly and opening stores at a healthy clip. They grew their sales by an amazing 29% over last year, with an 11% increase in same store sales. Wow!!! They must be a real sales juggernaut. Well not quite. Their stock dropped 29% this morning.

You see they are another canary in the coal mine of how hard goods retailers and car companies have generated fantastic sales in the last couple years. Subprime and 0% interest debt peddled at prodigious rates to anyone that can breath and scratch an X on a loan document can really juice the top line for awhile. But guess what? The ignorant masses with no jobs actually have to make the payments for it to work out in the end.

It seems Conn’s has generated all of their fabulous sales with 0% deferred plans made to questionable credit worthy customers. Their portfolio of credit receivables grew by 40% while sales grew by 29%. It seems when you make loans to people incapable of paying you back, they eventually default. The delinquency rate is soaring on their $1.2 billion portfolio. Bye Bye profits.

This is the same sale strategy used by the big automakers over the last two years. Those fantastic sales have been a fraud. The bad debt avalanche has just begun. You need income to eat out and you need income to make the debt payments on those 52 inch HDTVs. The middle class is tapped out and more debt will not cure what ails them. The canary is dead.

 

Darden Announces Expected Fiscal First Quarter Results

ORLANDO, Fla., Sept. 2, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI, +1.61% today reported that it expects diluted net loss per share from continuing operations for its fiscal first quarter ended August 24, 2014 to be approximately 13 to 15 cents.

Darden also reported that preliminary U.S. same-restaurant sales for the fiscal first quarter by month for Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse were as follows:

Olive Garden June July August
Same-Restaurant Sales -1.0% -4.2% 0.8%
Same-Restaurant Traffic -0.9% -4.3% -2.3%

 

LongHorn Steakhouse June July August
Same-Restaurant Sales 3.3% 1.5% 3.2%
Same-Restaurant Traffic -1.1% -1.6% 0.2%

 

Conn’s, Inc. Reports Second-Quarter Fiscal 2015 Financial Results

THE WOODLANDS, Texas, Sep 02, 2014 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Conn’s, Inc. CONN, -28.62% a specialty retailer of furniture, mattresses, home appliances, consumer electronics and provider of consumer credit, today announced its financial results for the second quarter ended July 31, 2014.

Credit segment operating income declined $7.7 million to an operating loss of $0.2 million;
• The percentage of the customer portfolio balance 60+ days delinquent increased 70 basis points sequentially to 8.7% as of July 31, 2014;
• Credit segment provision for bad debts on an annualized basis was 13.9% of the average outstanding portfolio balance in the current quarter and 11.1% on an annualized basis for the first six months of fiscal 2015;
• Diluted earnings was $0.48 per share, compared to $0.52 per share in the prior year;
• Adjusted diluted earnings was $0.50 per share, compared to $0.52 per share a year ago; and
• Full-year fiscal 2015 guidance was updated to a range of $2.80 to $3.00 adjusted earnings per diluted share. The new full-year guidance reflects primarily the impact of higher expected provision for bad debts and the issuance of $250 million in 7.25% senior unsecured notes in July 2014.

“Overall results were not satisfactory. Our credit operations ran into unexpected headwinds, resulting in portfolio performance deterioration. Despite tighter underwriting, lower early-stage delinquency and improved collections staffing and execution, delinquency unexpectedly deteriorated across all credit quality levels, customer groups, product categories, geographic regions and years of origination. Tighter underwriting and better collections execution did not offset deterioration in our customer’s ability to resolve delinquency.

“Delinquency rates improved through May and increased modestly in June, consistent with typical seasonal trends. However, over sixty-day delinquency rates unexpectedly deteriorated a combined 90 basis points in July and August. We now expect future 60-plus day delinquency to increase to levels above our historical highs in the third and fourth quarter of fiscal 2015. Early stage delinquency remains lower than historical averages through August.

“We have made additional minor changes to tighten underwriting in August. Over time, more of the total portfolio will have been originated under the tighter underwriting policies implemented in late fiscal 2014 and early fiscal 2015. Declining sales of electronics as a percentage of total sales, slower expected originations growth and an expected reduction in the percentage of originations to new customers should also benefit future portfolio performance. Longer term, we believe the changes necessary to optimize portfolio performance are in place, although we may not return to credit loss rates of prior years.

“In response to higher delinquency, we are reducing the level of no-interest programs and raising the interest rates in some markets to increase portfolio yield.

WALL STREET’S SUBPRIME REDUX

The Wall Street shysters have no morality, conscience or humanity. They are nothing but blood sucking parasites. Their sole purpose is to enrich themselves, while impoverishing their hosts (clients & customers). They destroyed the lives of millions with their fraudulent subprime housing scheme and were bailed out by the very people they screwed. Their hubris and arrogance knows no bounds. With encouragement from their captured central bank and the Obama administration, they are resorting to subprime fraud again in an effort to revive our dead economy. It worked so well the first time with houses, it will surely work a second time with automobiles. They prey upon the ignorant, stupid, and math challenged masses.

The entire engineered auto “recovery” is nothing but an easy money debt financed fraud. It will end in tears for millions and the government will insist you bail out the bankers again.

Via the NYT 

In a Subprime Bubble for Used Cars, Borrowers Pay Sky-High Rates

Rodney Durham stopped working in 1991, declared bankruptcy and lives on Social Security. Nonetheless, Wells Fargo lent him $15,197 to buy a used Mitsubishi sedan.

“I am not sure how I got the loan,” Mr. Durham, age 60, said.

Mr. Durham’s application said that he made $35,000 as a technician at Lourdes Hospital in Binghamton, N.Y., according to a copy of the loan document. But he says he told the dealer he hadn’t worked at the hospital for more than three decades. Now, after months of Wells Fargo pressing him over missed payments, the bank has repossessed his car.

This is the face of the new subprime boom. Mr. Durham is one of millions of Americans with shoddy credit who are easily obtaining auto loans from used-car dealers, including some who fabricate or ignore borrowers’ abilities to repay. The loans often come with terms that take advantage of the most desperate, least financially sophisticated customers. The surge in lending and the lack of caution resemble the frenzied subprime mortgage market before its implosion set off the 2008 financial crisis.

Auto loans to people with tarnished credit have risen more than 130 percent in the five years since the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, with roughly one in four new auto loans last year going to borrowers considered subprime — people with credit scores at or below 640.

The explosive growth is being driven by some of the same dynamics that were at work in subprime mortgages. A wave of money is pouring into subprime autos, as the high rates and steady profits of the loans attract investors. Just as Wall Street stoked the boom in mortgages, some of the nation’s biggest banks and private equity firms are feeding the growth in subprime auto loans by investing in lenders and making money available for loans.

And, like subprime mortgages before the financial crisis, many subprime auto loans are bundled into complex bonds and sold as securities by banks to insurance companies, mutual funds and public pension funds — a process that creates ever-greater demand for loans.

The New York Times examined more than 100 bankruptcy court cases, dozens of civil lawsuits against lenders and hundreds of loan documents and found that subprime auto loans can come with interest rates that can exceed 23 percent. The loans were typically at least twice the size of the value of the used cars purchased, including dozens of battered vehicles with mechanical defects hidden from borrowers. Such loans can thrust already vulnerable borrowers further into debt, even propelling some into bankruptcy, according to the court records, as well as interviews with borrowers and lawyers in 19 states.

In another echo of the mortgage boom, The Times investigation also found dozens of loans that included incorrect information about borrowers’ income and employment, leading people who had lost their jobs, were in bankruptcy or were living on Social Security to qualify for loans that they could never afford.

Photo

Credit

Many subprime auto lenders are loosening credit standards and focusing on the riskiest borrowers, according to the examination of documents and interviews with current and former executives from five large subprime auto lenders. The lending practices in the subprime auto market, recounted in interviews with the executives and in court records, demonstrate that Wall Street is again taking on very risky investments just six years after the financial crisis.

The size of the subprime auto loan market is a tiny fraction of what the subprime mortgage market was at its peak, and its implosion would not have the same far-reaching consequences. Yet some banking analysts and even credit ratings agencies that have blessed subprime auto securities have sounded warnings about potential risks to investors and to the financial system if borrowers fall behind on their bills.

Pointing to higher auto loan balances and longer repayment periods, the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s recently issued a report cautioning investors to expect “higher losses.” And a high-ranking official at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates some of the nation’s largest banks, has also privately expressed concerns that the banks are amassing too many risky auto loans, according to two people briefed on the matter. In a June report, the agency noted that “these early signs of easing terms and increasing risk are noteworthy.”

Despite such warnings, the volume of total subprime auto loans increased roughly 15 percent, to $145.6 billion, in the first three months of this year from a year earlier, according to Experian, a credit rating firm.

“It appears that investors have not learned the lessons of Lehman Brothers and continue to chase risky subprime-backed bonds,” said Mark T. Williams, a former bank examiner with the Federal Reserve.

In their defense, financial firms say subprime lending meets an important need: allowing borrowers with tarnished credits to buy cars vital to their livelihood.

Lenders contend that the risks are not great, saying that they have indeed heeded the lessons from the mortgage crisis. Losses on securities made up of auto loans, they add, have historically been low, even during the crisis.

Autos, of course, are very different than houses. While a foreclosure of a home can wend its way through the courts for years, a car can be quickly repossessed. And a growing number of lenders are using new technologies that can remotely disable the ignition of a car within minutes of the borrower missing a payment. Such technologies allow lenders to seize collateral and minimize losses without the cost of chasing down delinquent borrowers.

That ability to contain risk while charging fees and high interest rates has generated rich profits for the lenders and those who buy the debt. But it often comes at the expense of low-income Americans who are still trying to dig out from the depths of the recession, according to the interviews with legal aid lawyers and officials from the Federal Trade Commission and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as well as state prosecutors.

While the pain from an imploding subprime auto loan market would be much less than what ensued from the housing crisis, the economy is still on relatively fragile footing, and losses could ultimately stall the broader recovery for millions of Americans.

Photo

Rodney Durham, 60, of Binghamton, N.Y., had his car repossessed.
Rodney Durham, 60, of Binghamton, N.Y., had his car repossessed.Credit Heather Ainsworth for The New York Times

The pain is far more immediate for borrowers like Mr. Durham, the unemployed car buyer from Binghamton, N.Y., who stopped making his loan payments in March, only five months after buying the 2010 Mitsubishi Galant. A spokeswoman for Wells Fargo, which declined to comment on Mr. Durham citing a confidentiality policy, emphasized that the bank’s underwriting is rigorous, adding that “we have controls in place to help identify potential fraud and take appropriate action.”

The Mitsubishi was repossessed last month, leaving Mr. Durham without a car. But his debt ordeal may not be over.

Some lenders go after borrowers like Mr. Durham for the debt that still remains after a repossessed car is sold, according to court filings. Few repossessed cars fetch enough when they are resold to cover the total loan, the court documents show. To get the remainder, some lenders pursue the borrowers, which can leave them shouldering debts for years after their cars are gone.

But for now, Mr. Durham, who is disabled, has a more immediate problem.

“I just can’t get around without my car,” he said.

The Brokers

Outside, the banner proclaimed: “No Credit. Bad Credit. All Credit. 100 percent approval.” Inside the used-car dealership in Queens, N.Y., Julio Estrada perfected his sales pitches for the borrowers, including some immigrants who spoke little English.

Sure, the double-digit interest rates might seem steep, Mr. Estrada told potential customers, but with regular payments, they would quickly fall. Mr. Estrada, who sometimes went by John, and sometimes by Jay, promised others cash rebates.

If the soft sell did not work, he played hardball, threatening to keep the down payments of buyers who backed out, according to court documents and interviews with customers.

The salesman was ultimately indicted by the Queens district attorney on grand larceny charges that he defrauded more than 23 car buyers with refinancing schemes.

Relatively few used-car dealers are charged with fraud. Yet the extreme example of Mr. Estrada comes as some used-car dealers — a business that has long had a reputation for aggressive pitches — are pushing sales tactics too far, according to state prosecutors and federal regulators.

And these are among the thousands of used-car dealers who are working hand-in-hand with Wall Street to sell cars. Court records show that Capital One and Santander Consumer USA all bought loans arranged by Mr. Estrada, who pleaded guilty last year. Since then, Mr. Estrada was indicted on separate fraud charges in March by Richard A. Brown, the Queens district attorney. That case is still pending.

To guard against fraud, the banks say, they vet their dealer partners and routinely investigate complaints. Capital One has “rigorous controls in place to identify any potential issues,” said Tatiana Stead, a bank spokeswoman, adding that last year “we terminated our relationship with the dealership” where Mr. Estrada worked. Dawn Martin Harp, head of Wells Fargo Dealer Services, said that “it’s important to note that not all claims of dealer fraud turn out to be fraud.”

James Kousouros, Mr. Estrada’s lawyer, said that “for those individuals for whom Mr. Estrada bore responsibility, he accepted this and is committed to the restitution agreed to.” Some civil lawsuits filed by borrowers were found to be without merit, he said.

For their part, car dealers note that like any industry they sometimes have rogue employees, but add that customers are overwhelmingly treated fairly.

“There is no place for fraud or any other nefarious activities in the industry, especially tactics that seek to take advantage of vulnerable consumers,” said Steve Jordan, executive vice president of the National Independent Automobile Dealers Association.

In their role as matchmaker between borrowers and lenders, used-car dealers wield tremendous power. They make the pitch to customers, including many troubled borrowers who often believe that their options are limited. And the dealers outline the terms and rates of the loans.

In interviews, more than 40 low-income borrowers described how they were worn down by used car dealers who kept them in suspense for hours before disclosing whether they even qualified for a loan. The seemingly interminable wait, the borrowers said, left them with the impression that the loan — no matter how onerous the terms — was their only chance.

The loans also came with other costs, according to interviews and an examination of the loan documents, including add-on products like unusual insurance policies. In many cases, the examination by The Times found, borrowers ended up shouldering loans that far exceeded the resale value of the car. A reason for that disparity is that some borrowers still owe money on cars that they are trading in when they purchase a new one. That debt is then rolled over into the new loan.

“By the end, they are paying $600 a month for a piece of junk,” said Charles Juntikka, a bankruptcy lawyer in Manhattan.

The dealers have an incentive to increase both the size and the interest rate of the loans.

The arithmetic is simple. The bigger size and rate of the loan, the bigger the dealers’ profit, or so-called markup — the difference between the rate charged by the lenders and the one ultimately offered to the borrowers. Under federal law, dealers do not have to disclose the size of the markup.

Photo

Dolores Blaylock, 51, of Austin, Tex., and her father, Fidencio Muñiz, 84. Like many buyers, she found she had unwittingly purchased an add-on — in her case, a life insurance policy.
Dolores Blaylock, 51, of Austin, Tex., and her father, Fidencio Muñiz, 84. Like many buyers, she found she had unwittingly purchased an add-on — in her case, a life insurance policy.Credit Erich Schlegel for The New York Times

To buy her 2004 Mazda van, Dolores Blaylock, 51, a home health care aide in Austin, Tex., said she unwittingly paid for a life insurance policy that would cover her loan payments if she died.

Her loan totaled $13,778 — nearly three times the value of the van that she uses to shuttle her father, who uses a wheelchair, to his doctor’s appointments.

Now, Ms. Blaylock says she regrets ever buying the van, which frequently breaks down. “I am afraid to drive it out of town,” she said.

In some cases, though, the tactics veer toward outright fraud. The Times’s scrutiny of loan documents, including some produced in litigation, found that some used-car dealers submitted loan applications to lenders that contained incorrect income and employment information. As was the case in the subprime mortgage boom, it is unclear whether borrowers provided incorrect information to qualify for loans or whether the dealers falsified loan applications. Whatever the cause, the result is the same: Borrowers with scant income qualified for loans.

Mary Bridges, a retired grocery store employee in Syracuse, N.Y., said she repeatedly explained to a car salesman that her only monthly income was about $1,200 in Social Security. Still, Ms. Bridges said that the salesman falsely listed her monthly income as $2,500 on the application for a car loan submitted by a local dealer to Wells Fargo and reviewed by The Times.

As a result, she got a loan of $12,473 to buy a 2004 used Buick LeSabre, currently valued by Kelley Blue Book at around half that much. She tried to keep up with the payments — even going on food stamps for the first time in her life — but ultimately the car was repossessed in 2012, just two years after she bought it.

“I have always been told to do the responsible thing, but I said, ‘This is too much,’ ” the 76-year-old widow said.

The dealer agreed to pay Ms. Bridges $1,000 after Syracuse University law students threatened to file a lawsuit accusing the company of violating state and federal consumer protection laws.

But Wells Fargo, which resold the car for $4,500 last July, is still pursuing Ms. Bridges for $2,900 — a total that includes her remaining loan balance and an $835 fee for “cost of repossession and sale,” according to a copy of a letter that Wells Fargo sent to Ms. Bridges last August. (Wells Fargo declined to comment on Ms. Bridges.)

Photo

Shahadat Tuhin, 42, with his daughter Sadia Oishika, 10. He says his auto dealer used deceptive practices.
Shahadat Tuhin, 42, with his daughter Sadia Oishika, 10. He says his auto dealer used deceptive practices.Credit Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times

Even when authorities have cracked down on dealers, borrowers are still vulnerable to fraud. Last June, Shahadat Tuhin, a New York City taxi driver, bought a car from Mr. Estrada, the salesman in Queens who less than a year earlier had been indicted.

The charge by the Queens district attorney didn’t keep him out of the business. While his criminal case was pending, the salesman persuaded Mr. Tuhin to buy a used car for 90 percent more than the price he agreed upon. Needing the car to take his daughter, who has a heart condition, to the doctor, Mr. Tuhin said he unwittingly signed for a $26,209 loan with completely different terms than the ones he had reviewed.

Immediately after discovering the discrepancies, Mr. Tuhin, 42, said he tried to return the car to the dealership and called the lender, M&T Bank, to notify them of the fraud.

The bank told him to take up the issue with the dealer, Mr. Tuhin said.

M&T declined to comment on Mr. Tuhin, but said it no longer does business with that dealership.

The Money

Investors, seeking a higher return when interest rates are low, recently flocked to buy a bond issue from Prestige Financial Services of Utah. Orders to invest in the $390 million debt deal were four times greater than the amount of available securities.

What is backing many of these securities? Auto loans made to people who have been in bankruptcy.

An affiliate of the Larry H. Miller Group of Companies, Prestige specializes in making the loans to people in bankruptcy, packaging them into securities and then selling them to investors.

“It’s been a hot space,” Richard L. Hyde, the firm’s chief operating officer, said during an interview in March. Investors are betting on risky borrowers. The average interest rate on loans bundled into Prestige’s latest offering, for example, is 18.6 percent, up slightly from a similar offering rolled out a year earlier. Since 2009, total auto loan securitizations have surged 150 percent, to $17.6 billion last year, though some estimates have put the total volume even higher. To meet that rising demand, Wall Street snatches up more and more loans to package into the complex investments.

Much like mortgages, subprime auto loans go through Wall Street’s securitization machine: Once lenders make the loans, they pool thousands of them into bonds that are sold in slices to investors like mutual funds, pensions and hedge funds. The slices that include loans to the riskiest borrowers offer the highest returns.

Rating agencies, which assess the quality of the bonds, are helping fuel the boom. They are giving many of these securities top ratings, which clears the way for major investors, from pension funds to employee retirement accounts, to buy the bonds. In March, for example, Standard & Poor’s blessed most of Prestige’s bond with a triple-A rating. Slices of a similar bond that Prestige sold last year also fetched the highest rating from S.&P. A large slice of that bond is held in mutual funds managed by BlackRock, one of the world’s largest money managers.

Private equity firms have also seen the opportunity in auto subprime lending. A $1 billion investment by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., Centerbridge Partners and Warburg Pincus in a large subprime lender roughly doubled in about two years. Typically, it takes private equity firms three to five years to reap significant profit on their investments.

It is not just the private equity firms and large banks that are fanning the lending boom. Major insurance companies and mutual funds, which manage money on behalf of mom-and-pop investors, are also snapping up securities backed by subprime auto loans.

While there are no exact measures of how many of these loans end up on banks’ balance sheets, interviews with consumer lawyers and analysts suggest the problem is spreading, propelled by the very structure of the subprime auto market.

The vast majority of banks largely rely on dealers to screen potential borrowers. The arrangement, which means the banks rarely meet customers face to face, mirrors how banks relied on brokers to make mortgages.

In some cases, consumer lawyers say, the banks actually ignore complaints by borrowers who accuse dealers of fabricating their income or even forging their signatures.

“Even when they are presented with clear evidence of fraud, the banks ignore it,” said Peter T. Lane, a consumer lawyer in New York. “The typical refrain is, ‘It’s not our problem, take it up with the dealer.’ ”

It could quickly become the banks’ problem, analysts say, if questionable loans sour, causing losses to multiply.

For now, the banks are not pulling back. Many are barreling further into the auto loan market to help recoup the billions in revenue wiped out by regulations passed after the 2008 financial crisis.

Wells Fargo, for example, made $7.8 billion in auto loans in the second quarter, up 9 percent from a year earlier. At a presentation to investors in May, Wells Fargo said it had $52.6 billion in outstanding car loans. The majority of those loans are made through dealerships. The bank also said that as of the end of last year, 17 percent of the total auto loans went to borrowers with credit scores of 600 or less. The bank currently ranks as the nation’s second-largest subprime auto lender, behind Capital One, according to J. D. Power & Associates.

Wells Fargo executives say that despite the surge, the credit quality of its loans has not slipped. At the May presentation, Thomas A. Wolfe, the head of Wells Fargo Consumer Credit Solutions, emphasized that the overall quality of its auto loans was improving. And Tatiana Stead, the Capital One spokeswoman, said that Capital One worked “to ensure we do not follow the market to pursue growth for growth’s sake.”

Prestige says its loans experience relatively low losses because borrowers have discharged many of their other debts in bankruptcy, freeing up more cash for their car payments. Another advantage for the lender: No matter how tough things get for troubled borrowers, federal law prevents them from escaping their bills through bankruptcy for at least another seven years.

“The vast majority of our customers have been successful with their loans and leave us with a much higher credit score,” said Mr. Hyde, Prestige’s chief operating officer.

The Risks

All it took was three months.

Dolores Jackson, a teacher’s aide in Jersey City, says she thought she could handle the $540 a month on the 2012 Chevy Malibu she bought in January 2013.

But the payments on the $27,140 loan from Exeter Finance, which is owned by Blackstone, quickly overwhelmed her, and she prepared to declare bankruptcy in April.

“I was drowning,” she said.

Other borrowers have also found themselves quickly overwhelmed by car loan payments.

Even after getting a second job at Staples, Alicia Saffold, 24, a supply technician at the Fort Benning military base in Georgia, could not afford the monthly payments on her $14,288.75 loan from Exeter. The loan, according to a copy of her loan document reviewed by The Times, came with an interest rate of nearly 24 percent. Less than a year after she bought the gray Pontiac G6, it was repossessed.

Photo

 Marcelina and Jonathan Mojica, and their dog, Lilly. “The car gets more money than what we put in our fridge,” Mr. Mojica said.
 Marcelina and Jonathan Mojica, and their dog, Lilly. “The car gets more money than what we put in our fridge,” Mr. Mojica said.Credit Damon Winter/The New York Times

In the case of Marcelina Mojica and her husband, Jonathan, they are keeping up with their payments on their $19,313.45 Wells Fargo auto loan — but just barely. They are currently living in a homeless shelter in the Bronx.

“The car gets more money than what we put in our fridge,” said Mr. Mojica, 28. Such examples of distress underscore the broader strains within the subprime auto loan market.

Exeter Finance declined to comment on Ms. Saffold or Ms. Jackson, but Blackstone, its parent company, emphasized that the credit quality of its lender’s loans was improving and that it worked hard to ensure its customers received the best rates. To ensure the accuracy of loan documents, Blackstone said, employees vet both dealers and borrowers.

“Exeter Finance believes it’s important to provide people with the option to finance transportation essential to their livelihood,” said Mark Floyd, the company’s chief executive.

Still, financial firms are beginning to see signs of strain. In the first three months of this year, banks had to write off as entirely uncollectable an average of $8,541 of each delinquent auto loan, up about 15 percent from a year earlier, according to Experian.

Some investors think the time is right to start selling their holdings. Earlier this year, for example, private equity firms, including K.K.R., sold most of their stake in the subprime auto lender, Santander Consumer USA, when the lender went public. Since the company’s initial public offering, the stock has fallen more than 16 percent.

While losses from soured car loans would be far less than those on subprime mortgages, the red ink could still deal a blow to the banks not long after they recovered from the housing bust. Losses from auto loans might also cause the banks to further retrench from making other loans vital to the economic recovery, like those to small business and would-be homeowners.

In another sign of trouble ahead, repossessions, while still relatively low, increased nearly 78 percent to an estimated 388,000 cars in the first three months of the year from the same period a year earlier, according to the latest data provided by Experian. The number of borrowers who are more than 60 days late on their car payments also jumped in 22 states during that period.

As a result, some rating agencies, even those that had blessed auto loan securitizations with high ratings, are starting to question the quality of the loans backing those securities, and warn of losses that investors could suffer if the bonds start to sour. Describing the potential trouble ahead, Kevin Cole, an analyst with Standard & Poor’s, said, “We believe these trends could lead to higher losses and weakened profitability in a few years.”

If those losses materialize, they could pummel a wide range of investors, from pension funds to insurance companies to mutual funds held by Americans preparing for retirement. For the huge baby-boomer generation, including many whose savings were sapped by the 2008 crisis and the ensuing recession, any losses from the auto loan securities could deal them another setback.

“Borrowers are haunted by this debt, and it can crater their credit scores, prevent them from getting other loans and thrust them even further onto the financial margins,” said Ahmad Keshavarz, a consumer lawyer in New York.

Some borrowers are stuck making payments on loans that were fraudulently made by dealers, according to an examination of dozens of lawsuits against dealers. There are no exact measures of just how many people whose cars have been repossessed end up in this predicament, but lawyers for borrowers say that it is a growing problem, and one that points to another element of subprime auto lending.

Thanks to an amendment to the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, the vast majority of dealers are not overseen by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Since its start in 2010, the agency has earned a reputation for aggressively penalizing lenders, but it has limited authority over dealers.

The Federal Trade Commission, the agency that does oversee the dealers, has cracked down on certain questionable practices. And although the agency has won a number of cases against dealers for failing to accurately disclose car costs and other abuses, it has not taken aim at them for falsifying borrowers’ incomes, for example.

Photo

Alicia Saffold, 24, received a loan with an interest rate of nearly 24 percent. Her car was soon repossessed.
Alicia Saffold, 24, received a loan with an interest rate of nearly 24 percent. Her car was soon repossessed.Credit Tami Chappell for The New York Times

And the help is not coming fast enough for borrowers like Mr. Durham, the retiree in Binghamton; Mr. Tuhin, the taxi driver in Queens; or Ms. Saffold, the technician in Georgia.

“Buying the car was the worst decision I have ever made,” Ms. Saffold said.

POP GOES THE SUBPRIME AUTO LOAN BUBBLE

Who could have predicted this? Oh Yeah – Me.

I wrote Subprime Auto Nation in September of 2012. GM and the rest of the slimeball auto industry utilized the free money being pumped out by the Federal Reserve to hawk their vehicles to every LeBron, Lakeisha, and Jamal in West Philly and the rest of Obama Welfare Nation with subprime auto loans out the yazoo. What could possibly go wrong providing seven year financing on $40,000 Cadillacs to people without jobs, without prospects, with sub 100 IQs, and long histories of defaulting on loans?

Considering Ally Financial, the number one dispenser of this subprime slime, was owned by Obama and the Feds until a few months ago, you have your answer. They used your tax money to get their voters in the latest models from that QUALITY IS OPTIONAL Government Motors union loving car company that has recalled more cars in the last few months than it sold in the previous two years.

Do you find it interesting that Obama and his minions, along with their co-conspirators on Wall Street decided to IPO Ally Financial back to the public just as the bad debt was beginning to roll in on this subprime slime? The underwriters for this joke of a company were Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Capital.

Wall Street has packaged these worthless pieces of paper into derivative sacks of shit and sold them to their clients, little old ladies, and pension funds. Does this ring a bell? They’ve done exactly what they did with subprime mortgages. EXACTLY. It worked so well the first time.

Now the shit is being fed into the fan. Guess who will be sprayed with the shit.

 

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog,

Sub-Prime Car Loans See a ‘Sudden Jump in Late Payments’

We have commented a few times on the slightly diffuse character of the echo bubble, which has infected a great many nooks and crannies of the economy. One of the areas which has experienced an enormous boom was the sub-prime auto loan sector. It seems however that the party in this sub-sector of the bubble economy is in the process of ending.

According to Bloomberg:

“A three-year lending boom to car buyers with spotty credit that helped push auto sales to a six-year high is starting to show signs of overheating.

 

The percentage of loans packaged into securities that are more than 30 days late rose 1.43 percentage points to 7.59 percent in the 12 months ended September 30, according to Standard & Poor’s. That’s the highest in at least three years, the data released last week by the New York-based ratings company show.

 

“We’re at this inflection point,” Amy Martin, an analyst at S&P, said by telephone. “Now that they are opening the lending spigot, it’s only natural that losses are starting to rise.”

 

Underwriting standards began to decline amid five years of Federal Reserve stimulus that set off a race for higher-yielding assets, spurring a surge in issuance of bonds tied to subprime auto loans. That breathed life into a car-finance business that had contracted in the wake of the credit crisis, attracting new lenders and private-equity firms such as Blackstone Group LP with cheap funding and high margins.

 

Delinquencies on subprime auto loans are likely to have increased more during the fourth quarter, the holiday period when consumers typically stretch their budgets, according to S&P. That’s poised to increase losses that bondholders will take from defaults on the debt, which stood at 6.92 percent at the end of September after falling to as low as 4.15 percent in 2011, S&P data show.

 

“Many lenders have told us that their performance in recent years exceeded their expectations,” Martin wrote in a report last month. “We are now hearing that they expect losses to trend upward to more normal levels this year and next.”

 

[…]

 

Subprime lenders have found cheap funding in the bond market, with $17.6 billion of asset-backed securities tied to subprime auto loans issued last year, more than double the $8 billion sold in 2010, according to Barclays Plc. About $3.6 billion of the securities have been offered this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

(emphasis added)

We wonder of there is any pie Blackstone doesn’t have a finger in these days… Anyway, it seems investors in these loans – after enjoying above average returns for a good while – must now brace for growing losses. That ‘underwriting standards have declined’ is really no surprise – that is what happens when the Federal Reserve prints wagon-loads of money and pressures short term interest rates to zero. In fact, this decline in lending standards was arguably one of the main goals of the policy.

 

It Always Starts Somewhere …

However, what interests us about this development is mainly this: it shows that the credit bubble is beginning to fray at the edges. Every downturn starts with a seemingly innocuous report about things ‘suddenly’ and ‘unexpectedly’ going wrong in a relatively obscure corner of the market. We find ourselves reminded of how sub-prime real estate credit troubles began to show up for the first time in February of 2007, leading to the often repeated mantra that this particular disturbance in the force was ‘well contained’.

That is however never how it works – in the end, it is all one big interconnected market. When troubles begin to show up at one end of it, they soon tend to  begin to spread.

 

repo order

A car repo notice – at least the repo sector can expect a boom now.

 

repo-2

Good-bye overpriced SUV piece of junk – it was nice to know ye while it lasted …

 

Conclusion:

One should certainly keep both eyes open henceforth; more anecdotal evidence of this type is likely to emerge in coming months, especially if the Fed continues with its ‘QE tapering’ course. Once problems become visible in one obscure corner of the low grade credit markets, it is often a warning sign for the entire market and economy.

PONDERING THOSE “GREAT” AUTO SALES

You gotta love these stories. The lady in this article sums it up perfectly:

“Even I wouldn’t make a loan to me at this point.”

But that isn’t stopping Ally Financial and the rest of the Wall Street slimeball banks from dishing out car loans and credit cards to anyone with a pulse. There is no doubt in my mind that these banks are doing this because Bernanke and Obama have told them to do so. The Fed has let them know they have their back. When these loans go bad the Federal Reserve will step in and buy up the bad debt and hide it on their balance sheet. This is the plan stan. It will not work. The brand new cars all over West Philly will be repossesed in the next 24 months and the bad debt will skyrocket. And you will be picking up the tab. Again.

 Lenders Again Dealing Credit to Risky Clients

By JESSICA SILVER-GREENBERG and
Published: April 10, 2012

Annette Alejandro just emerged from bankruptcy and doesn’t have a job, and her car was repossessed last year. Still, after spending her days job hunting, she returns to her apartment in Brooklyn where, in disbelief, she sorts through the piles of credit card and auto loan offers that have come in the mail.

“Even I wouldn’t make a loan to me at this point,” Ms. Alejandro said.

In the depths of the financial crisis, borrowers with tarnished credit like Ms. Alejandro were almost entirely shut out by traditional lenders. It was hard enough for people with stellar credit to get loans.

But as financial institutions recover from the losses on loans made to troubled borrowers, some of the largest lenders to the less than creditworthy, including Capital One and GM Financial, are trying to woo them back, while HSBC and JPMorgan Chase are among those tiptoeing again into subprime lending.

Credit card lenders gave out 1.1 million new cards to borrowers with damaged credit in December, up 12.3 percent from the same month a year earlier, according to Equifax’s credit trends report released in March. These borrowers accounted for 23 percent of new auto loans in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from 17 percent in the same period of 2009, Experian, a credit scoring firm, said.

Consumer advocates and lawyers worry that the financial institutions are again preying on the most vulnerable and least financially sophisticated borrowers, who are often willing to take out credit at any cost.

“These people are addicted to credit, and banks are pushing it,” said Charles Juntikka, a bankruptcy lawyer in Manhattan.

The banks, for their part, are looking to make up the billions in fee income wiped out by regulations enacted after the financial crisis by focusing on two parts of their business — the high and the low ends — industry consultants say. Subprime borrowers typically pay high interest rates, up to 29 percent, and often rack up fees for late payments.

Some former banking regulators said they worried that this kind of lending, even in its early stages, signaled a potentially dangerous return to the same risky lending that helped fuel the credit crisis.

“It’s clear that we are returning to business as usual,” said Mark T. Williams, a former Federal Reserve bank examiner.

The lenders argue that they have learned their lesson and are distinguishing between chronic deadbeats and what some in the industry call “fallen angels,” those who had good payment histories before falling behind as the economy foundered.

A spokesman for Chase, Steve O’Halloran, said the bank “seeks to be a careful, responsible lender,” adding that it “is constantly evaluating the risks and costs of funding loans.”

Regulators with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which oversees the nation’s largest banks, said that as long as lenders adhered to strict underwriting standards and monitored risk, there was nothing inherently dangerous about extending credit to a wider swath of people.

In fact, an increase in lending is a sign that the economy is improving, economists say. While unemployment remains high, consumers have been reducing their debts. Delinquencies on credit card accounts and auto loans are down sharply from their heights in the crisis. “This is a natural loosening of credit standards because the banks feel they can expand again,” said Michael Binz, a managing director at Standard & Poor’s.

And lenders miss many potential customers if they focus just on people with perfect credit.

 “You can’t simply ignore this segment anymore,” said Deron Weston, a principal in Deloitte’s banking practice.

The definition of subprime borrowers varies, but is generally considered those with credit scores of 660 and below.

The push for subprime borrowers has not extended to the mortgage market, which remains closed to all but the most creditworthy.

Capital One is one lender that has been courting borrowers with damaged credit, even those who have just emerged from bankruptcy, with pitches like, “We want to win you back as a customer.”

Pam Girardo, a spokeswoman for Capital One, said, “Our strategy is to provide reasonable access to credit with appropriate guardrails in place to ensure consumers stay on track as they rebuild their credit.”

Ms. Alejandro, 46, was one of the borrowers fresh out of bankruptcy courted by Capital One. So far, she has turned it down.

David W. Nelms, chief executive of Discover Financial Services, the sixth-largest credit card lender in the United States, told investors this month that the company planned to extend credit to a broader group of borrowers. But, he added, Discover is not “suddenly going to go into the subprime business.”

Credit card lenders extended $12.5 billion in loans to subprime borrowers last year, up 54.7 percent from 2010, according to Equifax and Moody’s, but still below the $41.6 billion in 2007.

Lenders are ramping up their advertising, according to Synovate, a market research firm. Others are developing credit cards specifically aimed at borrowers with damaged credit. Capital One, for instance, introduced a credit card last year that allows these borrowers to lower their interest rate after making timely payments for a year.

Auto loans are particularly attractive for lenders since they were largely untouched by many of the new regulations. The new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it had not yet decided whether it would oversee the largest nonbank auto lenders.

At the same time, the market for securities made up of bundles of auto loans is heating up. Last year, investors scooped up $11.7 billion in auto loan securities, up from $2.17 billion in 2008. The pace of securitization in credit cards is slower, with lenders selling roughly 30 percent of their card portfolios to investors, down from 60 percent before the financial crisis, according to S&P.

Steve Bowman, the chief credit and risk officer for GM Financial, an auto lender, said he expected subprime auto loans to continue to grow. Unlike mortgage lenders, Mr. Bowman argued, auto lenders understand how to manage risk while still making loans to borrowers with poor credit.

But Moody’s was already sounding the alarm last year that some very risky borrowers were getting auto loans. The market, Moody’s wrote in a report in March 2011, could be growing “too much too fast.”

Ms. Alejandro is not the only borrower with bad credit to question why anyone would offer a loan. The offer, of course, does not necessarily translate into the issuing of a card.

Shauna Ames, 41, an office manager from St. Paul, said she got a credit card offer from Capital One even though the company had won a lawsuit against her for $5,485 in overdue credit card debt last September. Ms. Ames, who had filed for bankruptcy, said she was surprised at the offer. “I still can’t believe it,” she said. 

Ms. Girardo, the Capital One spokeswoman, said the bank doesn’t solicit customers that it has previously sued. “We believe we can establish long-term relationships with products that are predicated on consumer success,” she said.