canary in a coal mine – The Burning Platform

HUGE DEAD CANARY IN THE COAL MINE

Do you need any more proof about the global recession we are currently experiencing, despite the propaganda spewed by the MSM, politicians, central bankers, and Wall Street hucksters?

Wal-Mart has annual sales of just under $500 BILLION.

There are only 26 countries in the world with a higher GDP than Wal-Mart’s sales.

They are worldwide. Their results are tanking. They cater to the middle and lower classes. Only the .1% are experiencing a boom. The willfully ignorant masses are experiencing an ongoing recession.

Walmart Stock Slides After EPS Miss, Profits Tumble, Full Year Guidance Slashed

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/18/2015 07:27 -0400

It may not rely on such tech bubble (ver 1.0 and 2.0) buzzwords as eyeballs, clicks, “story”, “sharing”, “hyperxxxx, “non-GAAP” and so on, in fact with 2.2 million worldwide employees Wal-Mart is as old-school as it gets, which is why the fact that what was once the world’s most valuable retailer (until Amazon dethroned it a month ago) just reported not only a miss, on tumbling operating earnings, but slashed its guidance by 7%, should be very troubling to anyone who still looks as such trivial things as “fundamentals” and how these reflect the even more trivial “economy.”

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This is what happened:

Despite reporting revenue of $120.2 billion, or virtually unchanged from a year ago, and above the $119.7 billion expected, WMT reported EPS of $1.08, below the exp. $1.12. WMT promptly blamed exchange rates as the culprit for the $0.04 miss. Needless to say, when the dollar is weak no company ever says “EPS beat by $X.XX because of a favorable exchange rate.”
The first problem emerged when looking at operating income, which dropped by -10.0% consolidated, and tumbled by a whopping -14.2% in the firm’s international stores.
What was even more problematic is that while Wal-Mart reported a 4.8% increase in Net Sales in the US, rising to $74 billion, domestic Operating Income also tumbled by 8.2% to $4.8 suggesting there is a significant margin compression going on. Expect mass layoffs next as the company realizes that boosting minimum wages always has a profit trade off.
Then there was the most important factor: free cash flow. “Free cash flow was $5.1 billion for the six months ended July 31, 2015, compared to $6.8 billion in the prior year. The decrease in free cash flow was due to lower income from continuing operations and the timing of payments.“
But the worst news for WMT shareholders, and the reason why the stock is down 3% pre-market is because the company slashed its guidance as follows: Walmart updated full year EPS guidance to a range of $4.40 to $4.70, from a previous range of $4.70 to $5.05. This range includes Q3 EPS guidance of $0.93 to $1.05.

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BIGGEST RETAILER IN THE WORLD REPORTS AWFUL RESULTS

This company has annual sales of $485 billion per year. If it was a country, that revenue would make them the 28th largest country in the world, bigger than Austria, Iran, Denmark, Egypt, Israel, and hundreds of other countries. They are the most recognized retailer on the planet. They are the canary in the world coal mine, and the canary is coughing and wheezing. Their operating income in the first quarter plunged by 8.3%, or $500 million. They operate on very thin margins (3.3%), so a $500 million decline is significant. They are a retailer dependent upon the middle and lower classes to sustain their profits.

The steady deterioration of their financial results is a reflection of our dying economy, dying middle class, and dependency on government handouts as the only thing keeping them from experiencing a complete collapse in revenue and profits. Their net income this year will be about the same as it was in 2012. It will be more than $1 billion lower than it was in 2013. If the country was truly experiencing an economic recovery and has added millions of jobs since 2012 why would Wal-Mart revenues and income be stagnant and falling? They wouldn’t be. The entire recovery storyline is a farce. The Wall Street crowd (.1%) has experienced a Federal Reserve created boom, while the Main Street crowd (the 99.9%) continues to face an ongoing and deepening recession.

Walmart Sales, Comps Miss; Operating Income Tumbles; Runs Out Of Scapegoats

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015 07:20 -0400

In what may be the most cryptic press release from Walmart yet, the company just issued an 8-K which consisted all of 5 bullet points, a few charts, and precious little else. Perhaps the reason for the pithy transmission is that WMT had nothing good to say: Revenue declined from $115 billion to $114.8 billion, missing expectations of a jump to $116.2 billion, EPS also missed at $1.03, vs $1.05 expected, operating income tumbled 8.3% from $6.2 billion to $5.7 billion, and finally comp store sales also missed at 1.0%, below the 1.5% expected. With these results, anyone would be short and to the point.

After previously providing extensive explanations for why the massive Apple Sachs Industrial Member member missed, this quarter the firm almost didn’t even bother to scapegoat. This is what it said:

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TWO CANARIES IN THE CONSUMER COAL MINE

First we have good old Darden Restaurants, purveyor of processed slop to the obese endless bread stick addicted middle class. They pre-announced that they will lose $20 million this quarter. It seems the problem was not just their recently shit canned Red Lobster division. If there really has been excellent job growth as we have been told by Obama and the MSM, why does traffic continue to plunge at the formerly popular Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse? All those great jobs must translate into wage increases and disposable income. Right? The results of this middle class dining chain, along with the continued decline in McDonalds sales are a canary in the coal mine. The middle class has run out of disposable income and is no longer disposing of something it doesn’t have.

Look at the numbers in those charts. Look at how much lower the traffic is than total sales, particularly for Longhorn. Do you know what that means? Longhorn is a steakhouse. Beef prices are at all-time highs. These restaurants are jacking up prices big time. So not only has the middle class run out of disposable income, but real inflation in the real world is raging.

I had never heard of Conn’s until this morning. They are evidently a Texas based retailer with 86 stores selling appliances, furniture and electronics. They have been growing rapidly and opening stores at a healthy clip. They grew their sales by an amazing 29% over last year, with an 11% increase in same store sales. Wow!!! They must be a real sales juggernaut. Well not quite. Their stock dropped 29% this morning.

You see they are another canary in the coal mine of how hard goods retailers and car companies have generated fantastic sales in the last couple years. Subprime and 0% interest debt peddled at prodigious rates to anyone that can breath and scratch an X on a loan document can really juice the top line for awhile. But guess what? The ignorant masses with no jobs actually have to make the payments for it to work out in the end.

It seems Conn’s has generated all of their fabulous sales with 0% deferred plans made to questionable credit worthy customers. Their portfolio of credit receivables grew by 40% while sales grew by 29%. It seems when you make loans to people incapable of paying you back, they eventually default. The delinquency rate is soaring on their $1.2 billion portfolio. Bye Bye profits.

This is the same sale strategy used by the big automakers over the last two years. Those fantastic sales have been a fraud. The bad debt avalanche has just begun. You need income to eat out and you need income to make the debt payments on those 52 inch HDTVs. The middle class is tapped out and more debt will not cure what ails them. The canary is dead.

Darden Announces Expected Fiscal First Quarter Results

ORLANDO, Fla., Sept. 2, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI, +1.61% today reported that it expects diluted net loss per share from continuing operations for its fiscal first quarter ended August 24, 2014 to be approximately 13 to 15 cents.

Darden also reported that preliminary U.S. same-restaurant sales for the fiscal first quarter by month for Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse were as follows:

Olive Garden	June	July	August
Same-Restaurant Sales	-1.0%	-4.2%	0.8%
Same-Restaurant Traffic	-0.9%	-4.3%	-2.3%

LongHorn Steakhouse	June	July	August
Same-Restaurant Sales	3.3%	1.5%	3.2%
Same-Restaurant Traffic	-1.1%	-1.6%	0.2%

Conn’s, Inc. Reports Second-Quarter Fiscal 2015 Financial Results

THE WOODLANDS, Texas, Sep 02, 2014 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Conn’s, Inc. CONN, -28.62% a specialty retailer of furniture, mattresses, home appliances, consumer electronics and provider of consumer credit, today announced its financial results for the second quarter ended July 31, 2014.

Credit segment operating income declined $7.7 million to an operating loss of $0.2 million;
• The percentage of the customer portfolio balance 60+ days delinquent increased 70 basis points sequentially to 8.7% as of July 31, 2014;
• Credit segment provision for bad debts on an annualized basis was 13.9% of the average outstanding portfolio balance in the current quarter and 11.1% on an annualized basis for the first six months of fiscal 2015;
• Diluted earnings was $0.48 per share, compared to $0.52 per share in the prior year;
• Adjusted diluted earnings was $0.50 per share, compared to $0.52 per share a year ago; and
• Full-year fiscal 2015 guidance was updated to a range of $2.80 to $3.00 adjusted earnings per diluted share. The new full-year guidance reflects primarily the impact of higher expected provision for bad debts and the issuance of $250 million in 7.25% senior unsecured notes in July 2014.

“Overall results were not satisfactory. Our credit operations ran into unexpected headwinds, resulting in portfolio performance deterioration. Despite tighter underwriting, lower early-stage delinquency and improved collections staffing and execution, delinquency unexpectedly deteriorated across all credit quality levels, customer groups, product categories, geographic regions and years of origination. Tighter underwriting and better collections execution did not offset deterioration in our customer’s ability to resolve delinquency.

“Delinquency rates improved through May and increased modestly in June, consistent with typical seasonal trends. However, over sixty-day delinquency rates unexpectedly deteriorated a combined 90 basis points in July and August. We now expect future 60-plus day delinquency to increase to levels above our historical highs in the third and fourth quarter of fiscal 2015. Early stage delinquency remains lower than historical averages through August.

“We have made additional minor changes to tighten underwriting in August. Over time, more of the total portfolio will have been originated under the tighter underwriting policies implemented in late fiscal 2014 and early fiscal 2015. Declining sales of electronics as a percentage of total sales, slower expected originations growth and an expected reduction in the percentage of originations to new customers should also benefit future portfolio performance. Longer term, we believe the changes necessary to optimize portfolio performance are in place, although we may not return to credit loss rates of prior years.

“In response to higher delinquency, we are reducing the level of no-interest programs and raising the interest rates in some markets to increase portfolio yield.