FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART TWO

In Part One of this article I laid the groundwork of the Fourth Turning generational theory. I refuted President Obama’s claim that the shadow of crisis has passed. The shadow grows ever larger and will engulf the world in darkness in the coming years. The Crisis will be fueled by the worsening debt, civic decay and global disorder. I will address these issues in this article.

Debt, Civic Decay & Global Disorder

The core elements propelling this Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder – were obvious over a decade before the financial meltdown catalyst sparked this ongoing two decade long Crisis. With the following issues unresolved, the shadow of this crisis has only grown larger and more ominous:

Debt

  • The national debt has risen by $7 trillion (64%) to $18.1 trillion since 2009 and continues to accelerate by $2.3 billion per day, on track to surpass $20 trillion before Obama leaves office and $25 trillion by 2019.

  • The national debt as a percentage of GDP is currently 103% (it would be 106% if the BEA hadn’t decided to positively “adjust” GDP up by $500 billion last year). It is on course to reach 120% by 2019. Rogoff and Reinhart have documented the fact countries that surpass 90% experience economic turmoil, decline, and ultimately currency collapse and debt default.
  • Despite the housing collapse and hundreds of billions in mortgage, credit card, auto, and corporate debt being written off, dumped on the backs of taxpayers and hidden on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, total credit market debt has reached a new high of $58 trillion.

  • Harvard professor Laurence Kotlikoff has been a lone voice telling the truth about the true level of unfunded promises hidden in the CBO numbers. The unfunded social welfare liabilities in excess of $200 trillion for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Obamacare are nothing but a massive future tax increase on younger and unborn generations. Kotlikoff explains what would be required to pay these obligations:

To honor these obligations we could (a) raise all federal taxes, immediately and permanently, by 57%, (b) cut all federal spending, apart from interest on the debt, by 37%, immediately and permanently, or (c) do some combination of (a) and (b).”

The level of taxation and/or Federal Reserve created inflation necessary to honor these politician promises is too large to be considered feasible. Therefore, these promises, made to get corrupt political hacks elected to public office, will be defaulted upon.

Continue reading “FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART TWO”

Want to Know Who Really Runs the United States?

 

A Visit to Zombie Town

Dow down 99 points on Monday. Gold fell $28 an ounce – its fourth straight day of losses. Stock markets have been slipping all over the world, especially in Europe. But outside of Russia, and maybe Greece, so far there is no sign of real panic. That will come later.

We’re spending this week in Washington, zombie watching. Yesterday, we spent the evening in the lobby of The Willard hotel. A choir sang carols.

 

“Hark the herald angels sing,

“Glory to the newborn King!”

 

In one corner a group of cronies sat negotiating a deal; whose ox they were goring we don’t know. Pairs of women sipped their champagne and nibbled their cookies. A few tourists gawked at the splendor of it: a Christmas tree worthy of Yosemite… ceilings rivaling those of the Louvre.

 

dre-blog2 Photo credit: Andrew Bossi

 

Your editor – his laptop in one hand and a glass of Cabernet in the other – sat in another corner, enjoying the singing and inconspicuously recording events.

 

As Timeless as Prostitution

Politics is the leading industry in this town. When JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon was on line on Thursday, the other end of the line was here. Dimon was adding his backing to the so-called “cromnibus” bill – which, among other things, again allows Wall Street banks to take risky derivative bets with consumer deposits.

Here’s one of our dear readers with the story:

 

“The US House passed a bill repealing the Dodd-Frank requirement that risky derivatives be pushed into big-bank subsidiaries, leaving our deposits and pensions exposed to massive derivatives losses. The bill was vigorously challenged by Senator Elizabeth Warren; but the tide turned when Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, stepped into the ring.

Perhaps what prompted his intervention was the unanticipated $40 drop in the price of oil. As financial blogger Michael Snyder points out, that drop could trigger a derivatives payout that could bankrupt the biggest banks.”

 

Compared to New York, D.C. is remarkably quiet. Not too much traffic yesterday. Few people on the streets in the downtown area. It was quiet, calm, peaceful – like the beginning of a horror movie.

Our hotel has a completely different clientele and atmosphere than the boutique New York hotel we stayed in last week. In Lower Manhattan we saw “hipsters” and artists… publishers and filmmakers. Everyone seemed young and fashionable. The shops were busy. The old buildings – with their industrial windows and loading docks – recalled yesterday’s.

Washington, on the other hand, is as timeless as prostitution. Here, men still wear business suits and ties. Women are not quite as chic as New Yorkers. All look as though they take themselves too seriously… as though the future of the planet depends on what they did today. They must be trying to compensate for the fact that their work – and their lives – are parasitic and pointless.

They come and go in the hotel lobby. One is off to try to pull a little pork out of a Nebraska senator. Another is looking for help with a Pentagon contract. They are all zombies, we reckon, all getting without giving anything of any real value.

 

Zombie InvasionDon’t believe that Washington is zombie infested? Think again.

Photo via gothic.net

 

Jamie Dimon – Hero

Dimon must be a hero to this crowd…

He is not in politics … and not even a full-fledged master of zombie arts. After all, he must spend some of his time at JPMorgan Chase offering real services – or at least the appearance of them – to get clients to part with their money.

On Thursday, he did the rest of the nation a grave disservice. But in helping to push Republicans and Democrats to the scammy bipartisan “cromnibus” bill, he helped keep the lights on in Washington.

The federal government was getting ready to shut down. Then Dimon got on the phone. It was probably a tit-for-tat payback. The feds helped keep his lights on in 2008. Now, he has repaid the favor.

Colleague Dan Denning, newly returned from 10 years in Australia, is appalled. He was a congressional page 25 years ago. All of the twisted roots he saw sink into the D.C. earth in the 1980s have now grown into full-sized trash trees. They now cast their long shadows over Washington… and the nation.

It was in the beginning of the 1980s that President Reagan’s budget director David Stockman lost his famous battle for the soul of the Republican Party.

Stockman believed the GOP should remain true to its best traditions and should demand balanced federal budgets. But the progressive wing of the party was more interested in winning elections and distributing pork than in fiscal rectitude.

The Reagan administration went on to run some of the biggest deficits in history. And that was just the beginning. Among the bits of grease in the $1.1 trillion spending bill passed Saturday night was a provision allowing Dimon’s Wall Street cronies to “donate” up to $230,000 each to the Republicans and Democrats. This will help cement their control of the political process.

It was a win-win deal: Dimon got something. And the feds got something. That must be why the Wall Street Journal labeled it a “rare bipartisan success.” We understand the bipartisan success part: Both Washington and Wall Street benefited.

It’s the “rare” part we don’t understand.

 

dimonbillfoldBehold this here billfold, which shall henceforth be wide open to zombies on both sides of the aisle, so that they may continue to preserve our hard-won privileges in bi-partisan unity, amen.

Photo credit: AFP

 

The above article is taken from the Diary of a Rogue Economist originally written for Bonner & Partners. Bill Bonner founded Agora, Inc in 1978. It has since grown into one of the largest independent newsletter publishing companies in the world. He has also written three New York Times bestselling books, Financial Reckoning Day, Empire of Debt and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets.