CORRUPTION, CHAOS, CONFLICT – FOURTH TURNING ERUPTS IN 2024

“Americans today are increasingly polarized, as if they constitute two separate nations.” Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

broken American flag

“THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”Thomas Paine – The American Crisis

Thomas Paine wrote these words 247 years ago, in the most historic year in our history – 1776. That was during the first American Fourth Turning. It’s not a coincidence we are now in the midst of our fourth Crisis period in U.S. history, as they arrive like clockwork every 80 years or so, the length of a long human life. Paine’s American Crisis began in 1773, ignited by the Boston Tea Party and the British reaction to this revolutionary act of defiance. Our current Millennial Crisis was triggered by the Federal Reserve/Wall Street/Government created financial disaster in 2008 and subsequent outrageously desperate, totalitarian, un-Constitutional, extreme acts designed to keep the ruling class in power, while impoverishing and enslaving the masses in a surveillance state techno-gulag.

Continue reading “CORRUPTION, CHAOS, CONFLICT – FOURTH TURNING ERUPTS IN 2024”

THIS IS FINE?

Rogoff & Reinhart documented the numerous times in history when empires reached 90% debt to GDP ratios and provoked debt crises which initiated their collapse. We’re at 98% today, rapidly accelerating towards….  When does this shitshow of debt come crashing down? Who knows. But I’d guess within the next ten years of this Fourth Turning. Once the dominoes start to fall, the global contagion will be impossible to stop. Enjoy the show and buy more ammo.

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FALL OF AMERICAN EMPIRE AND DESCENT INTO A NEW DARK AGES

“The story of its ruin is simple and obvious; and, instead of inquiring why the Roman Empire was destroyed, we should rather be surprised that it had subsisted so long. The victorious legions, who, in distant wars, acquired the vices of strangers and mercenaries, first oppressed the freedom of the republic, and afterwards violated the majesty of the purple. The emperors, anxious for their personal safety and the public peace, were reduced to the base expedient of corrupting the discipline which rendered them alike formidable to their sovereign and to the enemy; the vigor of the military government was relaxed, and finally dissolved, by the partial institutions of Constantine; and the Roman world was overwhelmed by a deluge of Barbarians.” — Edward Gibbon. The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Chapter 38 “General Observations on the Fall of the Roman Empire in the West”

How the fall of the Roman empire paved the road to modernity | Aeon Essays

“After a diligent inquiry, I can discern four principal causes of the ruin of Rome, which continued to operate in a period of more than a thousand years. I. The injuries of time and nature. II. The hostile attacks of the Barbarians and Christians. III. The use and abuse of the materials. And, IV. The domestic quarrels of the Romans.” — Edward Gibbon. The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Chapter 71 “Four Causes of Decay and Destruction.”

The moniker of my website originated from a quote by David Walker, then Comptroller General of the U.S., in 2007. I wholeheartedly endorsed Walker’s viewpoint and become politically active in trying to get Ron Paul elected as president in 2008 and 2012. It was a fruitless effort, as the uni-party in Washington DC, controlled by the dark forces of the Deep State, do not allow men and women who truly want to reduce the size and scope of government to ever get elected. His warning sixteen years ago is a perfect example of being right but being early. When talking about the decline of empires, you are really deliberating about a process, not an event. The Roman Empire did not fall on a specific day due to a specific cause. It collapsed in stages over hundreds of years due to numerous reasons, each triggering events which compounded upon each other and ultimately led to the final collapse.

Continue reading “FALL OF AMERICAN EMPIRE AND DESCENT INTO A NEW DARK AGES”

IS THE U.S. BANKING SYSTEM SAFE? – 15 YEARS LATER

“We’ve got strong financial institutions…Our markets are the envy of the world. They’re resilient, they’re…innovative, they’re flexible. I think we move very quickly to address situations in this country, and, as I said, our financial institutions are strong.” Henry Paulson – 3/16/08

The next financial crisis: Why it looks like history may repeat itself Silicon Valley Bank is shut down by regulators in biggest bank failure since global financial crisis

“I have full confidence in banking regulators to take appropriate actions in response and noted that the banking system remains resilient and regulators have effective tools to address this type of event. Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out . . . and the reforms that have been put in place means we are not going to do that again.” – Janet Yellen – 3/12/23

With the recent implosion of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the largest bank failures since 2008, I had an overwhelming feeling of deja vu. I wrote the article Is the U.S. Banking System Safe on August 3, 2008 for the Seeking Alpha website, one month before the collapse of the global financial system. It was this article, among others, that caught the attention of documentary filmmaker Steve Bannon and convinced him he needed my perspective on the financial crisis for his film Generation Zero. Of course he was pretty unknown in 2009 (not so much anymore) , and I continue to be unknown in 2023.

Continue reading “IS THE U.S. BANKING SYSTEM SAFE? – 15 YEARS LATER”

SEE YOU ON THE DARK SIDE OF THE MOON

Written in December 2019. Reposted in honor of the 50th anniversary of the album

And if the cloud bursts thunder in your ear
You shout and no one seems to hear
And if the band you’re in starts playing different tunes
I’ll see you on the dark side of the moon

 Brain Damage, Pink Floyd


Image result for see you on the dark side of the moon"

And if the dam breaks open many years too soon
And if there is no room upon the hill
And if your head explodes with dark forebodings too
I’ll see you on the dark side of the moon

Brain Damage, Pink Floyd

Pink Floyd’s 1973 Dark Side of the Moon album is considered one of the greatest albums of all-time. It stayed on the Billboard 200 charts for 937 weeks. Roger Waters concept was for an album that dealt with things that “make people mad”. The Dark Side of the Moon’s themes include war, conflict, greed, the passage of time, death, and insanity, the latter inspired in part by former band member Syd Barrett’s worsening mental state.

The five tracks on each side reflect various stages of human life, beginning and ending with a heartbeat, exploring the nature of the human experience, and empathy. The themes of this album are timeless and are as germane today as they were forty-six years ago, if not more relevant. The country and world are awash in conflict, driven by the greed of evil men. Decent, law abiding, hard-working, critical thinking Americans see the world going insane as the passage of time leads towards the death of an American empire.

Continue reading “SEE YOU ON THE DARK SIDE OF THE MOON”

IT’S NOT A LIE IF YOU BELIEVE IT

“The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.”George Orwell, 1984

It's not a lie if you believe it – Seinfeld Memes

“Great is truth, but still greater, from a practical point of view, is silence about truth.” ― Aldous Huxley, Brave New World

I wish I could go through a day without having to reference Orwell and Huxley when observing how the ruling class is able to manipulate, subjugate, and propagandize the willfully ignorant masses through lies, deceptions, disinformation, and fear. But here we are, living through a dystopian nightmare blending the worst aspects of Orwell’s 1984 and Huxley’s Brave New World.

It’s as if O’Brien and Mustapha Mond are running the show, using behavioral conditioning, restricting freedom of speech, adhering to a strict caste system, surveilling everything we say or do, using our fears to control us, utilizing propaganda to produce false narratives, and ultimately threatening to stomp a boot on our faces forever if we do not obey and conform. Virtually everything we are told by politicians, government bureaucrats, military brass, “esteemed” journalists, medical “experts”, bankers, and corporate executives is lies. They do not believe their lies, but they know it benefits themselves financially to lie, and as long as they work together, they know the ignorant masses will believe them.

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FADING SMILE OF A DYING EMPIRE

“All that is human must retrograde if it does not advance.” – Edward Gibbon

“Woe, destruction, ruin, and decay; the worst is death and death will have his day.” – William Shakespeare, Richard II

We moved to our corner of Montgomery County, Pennsylvania twenty-seven years ago. We raised our three boys here. We spent hundreds of hours on local baseball fields, in hockey rinks, in school gyms for basketball games, concerts, plays and donuts-with-dads. It’s still a nice place to live, with virtually no crime, decent roads, and reasonable property tax rates. But I would have to say there has been a degradation in the overall quality of life in my community, which is consistent with the downward spiral of our society in general. When we planted our roots in this community it was still more farm-like than suburban. Family farms and open space were more prevalent than housing tracts, strip malls, fast food joints and cookie cutter commercial buildings. A beautiful farmhouse a few miles from our home, freshly painted white, proudly displayed the iconic yellow smiley face. It symbolized good times.

We’ve been driving on this road for twenty-seven years on the way to baseball games, hockey practices, the car dealer for service, and lately to our gym, as we try to fend off father time.  Driving by that barn in the early days would always brighten your day. A bright yellow smiley face against a white background represented a positive, happy view of the world.

Continue reading “FADING SMILE OF A DYING EMPIRE”

A BIASED 2017 FORECAST (PART TWO)

In Part One of this article I discussed the failure of our brains to think rationally due to our biases and the relentless propaganda flogged by our Deep State ruling class. Viewing the future through the looking glass of the Fourth Turning keeps you focused on the three catalysts which will drive all events in 2017 and beyond. I’ve addressed my 2017 Debt forecast in Part One. Now I will make some guesses about what might happen in 2017 related to Civic Decay and Global Disorder.

Civic Decay Forecast

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow

The presidential election and its aftermath tell you everything you need to know about the level of civic decay overtaking this country. The country is as divided as it was after the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860. There is virtually no common ground between liberals and conservatives. The pure hatred and contempt between the winners and losers in the recent election does not bode well for the country over the next four to eight years.

The social fabric of the country has been torn asunder. The Clinton supporters believe anyone not on their side is deplorable, racist, misogynist, and fans of Hitler. Trump supporters believe anyone not on their side is low IQ, Muslim loving, deceitful, math challenged, and fans of a criminal. The gulf between the two sides is unbridgeable.

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THE ANTI-CINDERELLA MAN (PART TWO)

In Part One of this article I made a fact based case that most Americans are experiencing an economic depression on par with the Great Depression of the 1930’s. In Part Two I will compare and contrast two very different men who raised the spirits of the common man during difficult economic times. As we approach the perilous portion of this Fourth Turning, it will take more than hope to get us through to the other side.

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Cinderella Man

Likening Braddock to Trump might seem far-fetched, until you think about parallels between the economic conditions during the 1930’s and today, along with the deepening mood of crisis, despair and anger at the establishment. Braddock’s career coincided with the last Fourth Turning. James J. Braddock was born in 1905, to Irish immigrant parents Joseph Braddock and Elizabeth O’Toole Braddock in a tiny apartment on West 48th Street in New York City. His life personified that of a GI Generation hero. One of seven children, Jimmy enjoyed playing marbles, baseball and hanging around the old swimming hole on the edge of the Hudson River as a youngster. He discovered his passion for boxing as a teenager.

Braddock refined his skills as an amateur fighter and in 1926 entered the professional boxing circuit in the light heavyweight division. Braddock overwhelmed the competition, knocking out multiple opponents in the early rounds of most fights. As a top light heavyweight, he stood over six feet two inches, but seldom weighed over 180 pounds. But his powerful right hand was no match for opponents that weighed close to 220 pounds. His star was ascending. He earned a shot at the title in 1929. On the evening of July 18th 1929, Braddock entered the ring at Yankee Stadium to face Tommy Loughran for the coveted light heavyweight championship. Loghran avoided Braddock’s deadly right hand for 15 rounds and won by decision. Less than two months later the stock market crashed and the country plunged into the Great Depression.

Continue reading “THE ANTI-CINDERELLA MAN (PART TWO)”

THE ANTI-CINDERELLA MAN (PART ONE)

There are several movies I will watch every time they are aired on one of my generally useless 600 cable channels. They all have the same thing in common – a compelling character portrayal which keeps you riveted and mesmerized by how the protagonist deals with adversity and circumstances beyond their control. The movies I can’t resist include: The Godfather I & II, The Green Mile, Shawshank Redemption, Apocalypse Now, and Patton. Another captivating movie, which didn’t do well at the box office, is Cinderella Man. The portrayal of Depression era heavyweight boxing champion James J. Braddock by Russell Crowe is inspirational, with a rousing and improbable victory by the champion of the common man. While watching this great movie a few weeks ago I found myself equating the themes to the current presidential campaign.

http://www.freemovieposters.net/posters/cinderella_man_2005_1974_medium.jpg

The Greater Depression

Braddock was an inspiration to all downtrodden demoralized Americans during the Great Depression. The parallels between the 1930’s Great Depression and today’s Greater Depression are uncanny, despite the propaganda emitted by the establishment politicians, media and banking cabal that all is well. The corporate mainstream media faux journalists scorn and ridicule anyone who makes the case we are currently in the midst of another Great Depression. They are paid to peddle a recovery narrative to keep the masses ignorant, sedated, and distracted by latest adventures of Caitlyn Jenner and the Kardashians. An impartial assessment of the facts reveals today’s Depression to be every bit as dreadful for the average American as it was in the 1930’s.

Continue reading “THE ANTI-CINDERELLA MAN (PART ONE)”

This Is How America Has Changed Since The Last Fed Rate Hike

The Fed is caught in a trap and they can’t get out.

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On June 29, 2006, the Fed did something it would not do again for (at least) nine and a half years: it hiked rates by 25 basis points, its 17th consecutive rate hike. Everyone knows what happened after.

On December 16, 2015, the Fed is expected to do something it hasn’t done for 3,457 days: hike rates by 25 bps, ending the longest period in US history (84 months) of zero interest rates.

How has the world changed in the interim? Some quick observations from BofA:

  • Back then US housing starts were booming (2¼ million per annum), a stock market bubble was taking place in Saudi Arabia, another one was forming in China, no one had heard of “Quantitative Easing” and there was no such thing as the iPhone.
  • Today, US housing starts are moribund (around 1 million per annum), the Saudi’s have just been downgraded (a devaluation of the Saudi riyal is one of BofAML’s noted “black swan” events in 2016), Chinese debt deflation has reduced China’s “growth” opportunity set to babies, tourists & capital outflows, central banks have purchased a remarkable $12,400,000,000,000 of financial assets since Bear Stearns, and the iPhone now powers retail sales.

And here is the biggest difference: back then total debt/GDP was 61%, with total debt just over $8 trillion. Now, it is 104%, with the total US debt just shy of $19 trillion.

Good luck Fed.


FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART TWO

In Part One of this article I laid the groundwork of the Fourth Turning generational theory. I refuted President Obama’s claim that the shadow of crisis has passed. The shadow grows ever larger and will engulf the world in darkness in the coming years. The Crisis will be fueled by the worsening debt, civic decay and global disorder. I will address these issues in this article.

Debt, Civic Decay & Global Disorder

The core elements propelling this Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder – were obvious over a decade before the financial meltdown catalyst sparked this ongoing two decade long Crisis. With the following issues unresolved, the shadow of this crisis has only grown larger and more ominous:

Debt

  • The national debt has risen by $7 trillion (64%) to $18.1 trillion since 2009 and continues to accelerate by $2.3 billion per day, on track to surpass $20 trillion before Obama leaves office and $25 trillion by 2019.

  • The national debt as a percentage of GDP is currently 103% (it would be 106% if the BEA hadn’t decided to positively “adjust” GDP up by $500 billion last year). It is on course to reach 120% by 2019. Rogoff and Reinhart have documented the fact countries that surpass 90% experience economic turmoil, decline, and ultimately currency collapse and debt default.
  • Despite the housing collapse and hundreds of billions in mortgage, credit card, auto, and corporate debt being written off, dumped on the backs of taxpayers and hidden on the Federal Reserve balance sheet, total credit market debt has reached a new high of $58 trillion.

  • Harvard professor Laurence Kotlikoff has been a lone voice telling the truth about the true level of unfunded promises hidden in the CBO numbers. The unfunded social welfare liabilities in excess of $200 trillion for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Obamacare are nothing but a massive future tax increase on younger and unborn generations. Kotlikoff explains what would be required to pay these obligations:

To honor these obligations we could (a) raise all federal taxes, immediately and permanently, by 57%, (b) cut all federal spending, apart from interest on the debt, by 37%, immediately and permanently, or (c) do some combination of (a) and (b).”

The level of taxation and/or Federal Reserve created inflation necessary to honor these politician promises is too large to be considered feasible. Therefore, these promises, made to get corrupt political hacks elected to public office, will be defaulted upon.

Continue reading “FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART TWO”

SAYONARA GLOBAL ECONOMY

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”Ludwig von Mises

The surreal nature of this world as we enter 2015 feels like being trapped in a Fellini movie. The .1% party like it’s 1999, central bankers not only don’t take away the punch bowl – they spike it with 200 proof grain alcohol, the purveyors of propaganda in the mainstream media encourage the party to reach Caligula orgy levels, the captured political class and their government apparatchiks propagate manipulated and massaged economic data to convince the masses their standard of living isn’t really deteriorating, and the entire façade is supposedly validated by all-time highs in the stock market. It’s nothing but mass delusion perpetuated by the issuance of prodigious amounts of debt by central bankers around the globe. And nowhere has the obliteration of a currency through money printing been more flagrant than in the land of the setting sun – Japan. The leaders of this former economic juggernaut have chosen to commit hara-kiri on behalf of the Japanese people, while enriching the elite, insiders, bankers, and their global banking co-conspirators.

Japan is just the point of the global debt spear in a world gone mad. Total world debt, excluding financial firms, now exceeds $100 trillion. The worldwide banking syndicate has an additional $130 trillion of debt on their insolvent books. As if this wasn’t enough, there are over $700 trillion of derivatives of mass destruction layered on top in this pyramid of debt. Just five Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks control 95% of the $302 trillion U.S. derivatives market. The reason Jamie Dimon and the rest of the leaders of the Wall Street criminal syndicate commanded their politician puppets in Congress to reverse the Dodd Frank rule on separating derivatives trading from normal bank lending is because these high stakes gamblers want to shift their future losses onto the backs of middle class taxpayers – again. The bankers, with the full support of their captured Washington politicians, will abscond with the deposits of the people to pay for their system destroying risk taking, just as they did in 2008 by holding taxpayers hostage for a $700 billion bailout.

Only the ignorant, intellectually dishonest, employees of the Deep State, CNBC cheerleaders for the oligarchy, or Ivy League educated Keynesian loving economists choose to be willfully ignorant regarding the true cause of the 2008 implosion of the worldwide financial system. The immense expansion of credit in the U.S. from 2000 through 2008 was created, encouraged, supported and sustained by Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and their cohorts at the Federal Reserve through their reckless lowering of interest rates and abdication of regulatory oversight, as their owner banks committed the greatest financial control fraud in world history. Total credit market debt in the U.S. grew from $25 trillion in 2000 (already up 100% from $12.5 trillion in 1990) to $53 trillion by 2008.

The bankers, politicians, mainstream media corporations, and mega-corporations that run the show lured Americans into increasing their credit card, auto loan, and student loan debt from $1.6 trillion in 2000 to $2.7 trillion in 2008, while extracting over $600 billion of phantom home equity from their McMansions. And it was all spent on things they didn’t need, produced in Chinese slave labor factories. The mal-investment boom was epic and the collapse in 2008 would have purged the bad debt, punished the risk takers, bankrupted the criminal banks, reset the financial system, and taught generations a lesson they needed to learn – excess debt kills. Instead of voluntarily abandoning the madness of never ending credit expansion and accepting the consequences of their folly, the world’s central bankers and captured politician hacks chose to save bankers, billionaires, and the ruling elite at the expense of the common people.

The false storyline of government austerity continues to be peddled to the public, but is nothing but pablum served to the mentally infantile masses, while the criminals continue to manufacture debt out of thin air, pillage the wealth of the working class, gamble recklessly knowing it’s with taxpayer funds, debase their currencies in an effort to make their debts easier to service, and enrich themselves and their cohorts, while impoverishing the little people. Consumer credit card debt peaked at $1.02 trillion in mid-2008. After hundreds of billions in bad debt write-offs by the Wall Street banks and shifted to the taxpayer, the American consumer has purposefully avoided running up credit card debt on Chinese produced crap, despite the urging of bankers, the mainstream media and politicians to revive our warped, debt laden, consumption dependent economy. Credit card debt is currently $140 billion BELOW levels in 2008, despite the never ending propaganda about an economic and jobs recovery. The fake Wall Street created housing recovery is confirmed by the fact mortgage debt outstanding is $1.4 trillion LOWER than 2008 heights and mortgage applications are hovering at 1999 levels.

Where Americans were in control and understood the consequences of their actions, they willingly reduced their debt based consumption. This was unacceptable to the powers that be at the Federal Reserve, in the banking sector, consumption dependent mega-corporations, and their government puppets on a string. The government took complete control of the student loan market and used their ownership of the largest auto lender – Ally Financial (aka GMAC, aka Ditech, aka Rescap) to dole out subprime auto loans and subprime student loans at a prodigious rate. The Wall Street banks joined the party, with assurance from Yellen and the Obama administration their future losses would be covered.

The Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen Put lives on. So, while credit card debt is 14% below 2008 levels, student loan and auto loan debt has soared by 47%, up $769 billion from its early 2010 lows. The Fed and their government minions have desperately accelerated their credit expansion in a futile effort to revive our moribund, debt saturated, welfare/warfare empire of delusion. After temporarily plateauing at $52 trillion in 2010, the acceleration of consumer credit, issuance of corporate debt to fund stock buybacks, and of course the $5 trillion added to the National Debt by Obama, have driven total credit market debt to an all-time high of $58 trillion. In addition, the Fed expanded their balance sheet by $3.6 trillion through their various QE schemes, funneling the interest free funds to their Wall Street owners to create the illusion of economic recovery through a stock market surge. The .1% never had it so good.

Of course, the U.S. has not been alone in attempting to cure a disease caused by excessive debt by issuing trillions in new debt. It is clear to anyone not in the employ of the Deep State that central bankers in the U.S. are working in concert with central bankers in Europe and Japan to keep this farcical Keynesian nightmare from imploding under an avalanche of deflation, wealth destruction, chaos and retribution for the guilty. The Federal Reserve used every means at their disposal to hide the fact they bought over $400 billion of mortgage backed securities from European banks and in excess of $1.5 trillion of their QE benefited foreign banks. It was no coincidence that one day after the Fed ended QE3, the Bank of Japan announced a massive “surprise” increase in purchases of bonds and stocks. It wasn’t a surprise to Janet Yellen, as this was the plan to keep stock markets rising, record Wall Street bonuses being paid, and further enrichment of the .1% global elite. The Japanese stock market has surged 18% since the October 31 announcement, with the U.S. market up 10%. Now it is time for Draghi to pick up the baton and create another trillion or two to support the lifestyles of the rich and famous. Central bankers know who they really work for, and it’s not you.

With global worldwide debt now exceeding $230 trillion we have far surpassed the point of no return. There is no mathematical possibility this debt will ever be repaid. And this doesn’t even include the hundreds of trillions of unfunded liability promises made by corrupt politicians around the world. The level of total global debt to global GDP, at nosebleed levels of 210% in 2008, has escalated past 240% as central bankers push the world towards a final and total catastrophe. With U.S. credit market debt of $58 trillion and GDP of $17.6 trillion, the U.S. is a basket case at 330%. The UK, Sweden and Canada are on par with the U.S.

But Japan takes the cake with total debt to GDP exceeding 500% and headed higher by the second. Their 25 year Keynesian experiment by mad central bankers and politicians enters its final phase of currency failure. Negative real interest rates, trillions wasted on worthless stimulus programs, and currency debasement have failed miserably, so Abe’s solution has been to double down and accelerate failed solutions. Only an Austrian economist can appreciate the foolishness of such a reckless act.

“Credit expansion is the governments’ foremost tool in their struggle against the market economy. In their hands it is the magic wand designed to conjure away the scarcity of capital goods, to lower the rate of interest or to abolish it altogether, to finance lavish government spending, to expropriate the capitalists, to contrive everlasting booms, and to make everybody prosperous. – Ludwig von Mises

Continue reading “SAYONARA GLOBAL ECONOMY”

Outspooking The Lehman Apocalypse: Could A Russian Default Be In The Cards?

The American MSM is cackling at the collapse of the Russian ruble and the Russian stock market. They seem to think Russia’s loss is an American win. They are too myopic to realize a Russian collapse will just be a first domino in a worldwide conflagration. The collapse in oil prices is mainly due to a collapse in worldwide demand because we have entered a global recession. No one wins in a global recession. Central banks have shot their load. The debt binge has failed to cure a disease caused by too much debt. Deflation has taken hold and will ravage the debt laden countries. The pain is just beginning.

As a reminder – Russian debt to GDP is 20% and they still have hundreds of billions of barrels of crude oil under their land. The US has debt to GDP of 103% of GDP and shale that is worthless unless oil prices are above $80 per barrel. Oil is currently $56 per barrel. Are we really winning?

The wildcard in this is Putin. The faux journalists and toady politicians think he will back down, leave the Ukraine, and bow down to Obama. Really? Not a chance. He is more likely to launch tanks into the Ukraine and see if Obama and NATO have any balls. Obama is an amateur with 40% approval who will not be able to accomplish anything in the last two years of his failed presidency. If he pushed Putin too hard, the unintended consequences may end up being a major chapter in a future history book.

The sheep are busy preparing for Christmas while tweeting, texting and facebooking to their heart’s content. They have no idea they are being led closer to the slaughterhouse.

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Mint – Blain’s Extra Porridge,

“Nazhmite Lyubuyu Stavku…“

Extra Comment – this might be getting serious.

 

Russia’s markets have been spanked hard despite last night’s hike. 19% currency crash and 13% down stocks in a session. Ouch! Cumulatively, over the past few weeks stocks, oil and the Ruble are off 50% plus, and bonds off 40%. This morning felt like free-fall. Expect more action from the Russians to stave off economic catastrophe… imminent capital controls are rumoured, but markets are demonstrating a massive loss of confidence.

Lots of old market hands are talking about how its similar to the Russia default and crash of ‘98 all over again.. Actually.. its worse.

Much worse.

The scale and speed of the current collapse is a magnitude greater, and the effects are accelerated and magnified by the utter absence of liquidity, and by the political stakes at play. Lots of comments about how a Russian crisis might play out and what cornered Putin may do – or be forced into. Let’s not speculate, but it seems pretty clear that any Western support to calm the crisis and stabilise markets would come at a very high personal cost to Putin. That would be a good point to get selectively involved.

It’s too early. We’ve seen a few cautious buyers get wallpapered with Russian and Ukraine paper – and done decent amount of business, but generally none of the main distressed players feel it’s yet time to get involved. “Don’t expect a V-Shaped recovery – its different and aint going to happen..” said one manager. Hope is not a strategy when it comes to Russia at present.

The big risk is whether the Russian meltdown can be contained within the borders of the Rodina. All kinds of no-see-ems suggest themselves.

What are potential knock-ons into other markets? Perhaps Russians having to unwind London Property, (we understand Russians have been very big buyers in recent weeks prefiguring potential exchange controls), or further ructions in Europe? We’re already concerned European sovereign debt is poised on a knife-edge between brutal reality and over-inflated hopes for QE. A strong nudge from a conflagurating Russia and bang goes Italy?

Or will it come from safe-haven flight triggering sell-offs across every asset class in a replay of 2008? Could a Russia default that will outspook the Lehman apocalypse be on the cards?

So much for dull Christmas markets…