The ‘other’ deficit is near an all-time high

Guest Post by Simon Black

It’s only Wednesday, and yet it’s already been a terrible weak for America’s record-setting deficit.

And no, I’m not talking about the country’s record-high fiscal deficits, which include the eye-popping $50+ trillion Social Security shortfall, and the $28.5 trillion national debt.

I’m actually referring to an even bigger deficit– one of the biggest the country has ever faced.

It’s larger than the national debt, the Social Security shortfall, the COVID bailouts, and just about every financial deficit combined.

I’m talking about America’s trust deficit… the massive chasm of skepticism and doubt that stands between the citizens and their once-venerated institutions.

Continue reading “The ‘other’ deficit is near an all-time high”

SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES

I stopped trying to predict markets back in 2008 when the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Wall Street bankers, and their propaganda peddling media mouthpieces colluded to rig the markets to benefit the elite establishment players while screwing average Americans. I haven’t owned any stocks to speak of since 2006. I missed the the final blow-off, the 50% crash, and the subsequent engineered new bubble. But that doesn’t stop me from assessing our true economic situation, market valuations, and historical comparisons in order to prove the irrationality and idiocy of the current narrative.

The proof of this market being rigged and not based upon valuations, corporate earnings, discounted cash flows, or anything related to free market capitalism, was the reaction to Trump’s upset victory. The narrative was status quo Hillary was good for markets and Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric would unnerve the markets. When the Dow futures plummeted by 800 points on election night, left wingers like Krugman cackled and predicted imminent collapse. The collapse lasted about 30 minutes, as the Dow recovered all 800 points and has subsequently advanced another 1,500 points since election day. Krugman’s predictive abilities proven stellar once again.

Continue reading “SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES”

THE FANNIE & FREDDIE FARCE

Let’s just cut to the chase. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are worthless, government run, manipulated pieces of insolvent shit. Their books are a fraud. The billions in profits they have reported over the last three years are an accounting illusion. The money they have “paid back” to the U.S. Treasury isn’t cash. It’s an accounting entry. Obama and his minions have counted these fraudulent accounting entries as a reduction in the annual deficits. It’s all a farce.

The proof is in the charts. Fannie and Freddie stocks have plunged by 35% this morning due to some court ruling. None of it matters. These two companies are completely worthless. They have been manipulated by politicians and bankers for decades.

As you can plainly see from the two charts they both traded at $1.50 per share this morning. I’m guessing the idiots who bought the stocks at $6 in March are feeling a little down in the dumps today.

So let me get this straight. Fannie supposedly had revenue of $123 billion in 2013, with an $84 billion profit, and their stock trades at $1.75???? Freddie supposedly had revenue of $76 billion and profits of $49 billion in 2013, and their stock trades at $1.75????

Maybe, just maybe, those numbers are a fraud. Fannie Mae lost $160 Billion between 2008 and 2011. Freddie Mac lost $60 billion between 2008 and 2011. You the taxpayer picked up the tab for the $220 billion in losses. These losses are after the FASB knuckled under and waived the mark to market accounting rules. Using real accounting, these losses would have been $400 billion to $600 billion.

Through the magic of creative fraudulent accounting get a load of these figures:

  • Fannie Mae has supposedly generated $110 Billion of profits over the last two and a half years. If these profits were real would their stock price really by $1.75? Of course not. These are fake profits generated by journal entries.
  • The truth can be found on the balance sheet. Fannie Mae has $3.2 TRILLION of debt. It has NEGATIVE $128 Billion of equity. That is the definition of insolvent. The assets on their balance sheet are grossly overvalued. If they tried to sell them in the open market they’d be lucky to get 50% of the reported value.
  • Freddie Mac has supposedly generated $65 Billion of profits in the last two and a half years. Their stock price also languishes at $1.75. Their financial reports should be on the funny pages. They’re laughable.
  • The Freddie balance sheet is a laugh riot. They have total debt of $1.9 TRILLION and equity of NEGATIVE $82 Billion. They are also insolvent.

Now for the best part. These insolvent pieces of shit have reported fake accounting created profits of $175 Billion over the last two and half years and then supposedly “paid back” $213 billion to the U.S. Treasury, falsely reducing the reported annual deficits. When Obama and his minions tout the declining deficits, remember the declines are nothing but Fannie and Freddie smoke and mirrors declines.

The Wall Street/Federal Reserve created fake housing recovery peaked six months ago. Prices are headed south. Fannie and Freddie’s toxic balance sheets are filled with worthless mortgage loans that are going to become even more worthless. The farce will continue until morale improves.

 

LIES, LIES, & MORE LIES

The government lies and the captured MSM just regurgitates the lies as facts. First off, April is always a positive month because people pay their taxes. The monthly deficits will resume with a vengeance in May. Secondly, this year’s April surplus is 5% lower than last year’s surplus. Was this also due to the weather? If people are making more money, shouldn’t tax revenue be higher?

Now to the big lie. The drones at the US Treasury confidently report that the year to date deficit is ONLY $306 BILLION. Of course, only a few short years ago that would be considered a disastrous full year result. But that isn’t the best part. The very same Treasury department has a website where you can track the National Debt by day.

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/search?startMonth=04&startDay=30&startYear=2013&endMonth=04&endDay=30&endYear=2014

Here’s the straight poop. The government stopped counting the National Debt during the debt ceiling stand-off last year. They didn’t show the debt rising at all from mid-May until mid-October. Then it jumped $328 BILLION in one day. Of course, anyone with a smattering of math skills can figure out that the National Debt rose by $2.25 billion per day and could figure out that it was approximately $17.038 trillion at the start of the fiscal year. At the end of April the National Debt was $17.508 trillion. Using my handy dandy subtractions skills reveals the National Debt has risen by $470 billion after seven months. That is only 54% higher than the deficit being reported to the sheeple.

You see the government drones like to make accounting entries to the deficit for Fannie and Freddie making fake repayments using fake profits generated by fake accounting rules. They also ignore various aspects of Social Security, pretending the money really exists. The interest is paid on the debt, not the fake deficit number, so the debt is all that matters. The National Debt is on course to go UP by $800 billion this year. Those is the facts jack. There is no positive story here. There is no fiscal responsibility here. There is no government austerity and cutbacks here. You are being sold a storyline.

 

U.S. sees $107 billion April budget surplus

Surplus shrinks from same month a year ago; deficit falls 37% year to date

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. government recorded a budget surplus of $107 billion in April, the Treasury Department reported Monday, a smaller windfall than in the same month last year.

The surplus for April is $6 billion, or 5%, lower than in April 2013. April is usually a surplus month, as Treasury sees a spate of tax payments from individuals and corporations.

Though smaller than last year’s, the April surplus contributes to a steady decline in the deficit for fiscal 2014. For the first seven months of the fiscal year that began Oct. 1, the deficit is $306 billion. That is $181 billion, or 37%, lower than it was for the same period in fiscal 2013.

 

Date Total Public Debt Outstanding
04/30/2013 16,828,845,497,183.90
05/01/2013 16,805,036,884,755.01
05/02/2013 16,794,979,173,216.61
05/03/2013 16,780,900,194,134.10
05/06/2013 16,788,427,184,539.43
05/07/2013 16,795,552,390,198.40
05/08/2013 16,784,106,881,842.76
05/09/2013 16,754,734,781,812.88
05/10/2013 16,753,992,575,790.14
05/13/2013 16,755,788,437,042.45
05/14/2013 16,760,961,851,934.60
05/15/2013 16,765,040,725,133.72
05/16/2013 16,734,808,644,648.07
05/17/2013 16,737,328,238,148.13
05/20/2013 16,737,294,304,715.52
05/21/2013 16,737,282,992,090.73
05/22/2013 16,734,032,974,210.27
05/23/2013 16,736,576,618,573.30
05/24/2013 16,735,424,271,257.87
05/28/2013 16,737,219,726,401.22
05/29/2013 16,737,208,536,433.83
05/30/2013 16,737,246,099,998.86
05/31/2013 16,738,821,943,986.12
06/03/2013 16,738,788,832,145.30
06/04/2013 16,738,778,336,691.59
06/05/2013 16,738,767,256,596.67
06/06/2013 16,738,770,826,158.59
06/07/2013 16,738,759,828,986.42
06/10/2013 16,738,726,834,732.35
06/11/2013 16,738,715,835,680.58
06/12/2013 16,738,704,836,178.59
06/13/2013 16,738,708,293,971.53
06/14/2013 16,738,697,370,019.81
06/17/2013 16,738,664,595,327.64
06/18/2013 16,738,653,639,711.53
06/19/2013 16,738,642,755,073.31
06/20/2013 16,738,645,811,490.40
06/21/2013 16,738,634,995,209.72
06/24/2013 16,738,602,543,527.17
06/25/2013 16,738,591,725,217.11
06/26/2013 16,738,580,905,836.39
06/27/2013 16,738,629,048,819.09
06/28/2013 16,738,320,054,489.27
07/01/2013 16,738,309,305,648.26
07/02/2013 16,738,298,556,333.25
07/03/2013 16,738,287,806,544.20
07/05/2013 16,738,281,074,058.77
07/08/2013 16,738,249,094,798.80
07/09/2013 16,738,238,434,108.96
07/10/2013 16,738,227,772,946.05
07/11/2013 16,738,230,684,008.83
07/12/2013 16,738,220,086,104.57
07/15/2013 16,738,188,365,630.03
07/16/2013 16,738,177,765,933.41
07/17/2013 16,738,167,165,761.57
07/18/2013 16,738,168,990,385.79
07/19/2013 16,738,158,460,368.61
07/22/2013 16,738,126,867,888.58
07/23/2013 16,738,116,336,111.15
07/24/2013 16,738,105,803,858.21
07/25/2013 16,738,136,405,384.69
07/26/2013 16,738,125,957,131.00
07/29/2013 16,738,094,608,381.03
07/30/2013 16,738,084,158,233.57
07/31/2013 16,738,599,194,294.87
08/01/2013 16,738,600,261,139.01
08/02/2013 16,738,589,818,505.99
08/05/2013 16,738,558,487,748.51
08/06/2013 16,738,548,043,209.68
08/07/2013 16,738,537,598,194.21
08/08/2013 16,738,541,240,281.19
08/09/2013 16,738,530,794,717.43
08/12/2013 16,738,499,455,164.95
08/13/2013 16,738,489,007,693.40
08/14/2013 16,738,478,559,738.19
08/15/2013 16,738,484,642,516.80
08/16/2013 16,738,474,221,654.92
08/19/2013 16,738,442,956,309.14
08/20/2013 16,738,432,533,607.02
08/21/2013 16,738,422,110,434.94
08/22/2013 16,738,460,765,994.01
08/23/2013 16,738,450,395,371.13
08/26/2013 16,738,419,280,739.58
08/27/2013 16,738,408,908,240.13
08/28/2013 16,738,398,535,315.91
08/29/2013 16,738,401,335,152.16
08/30/2013 16,738,649,841,392.70
09/03/2013 16,738,618,787,875.32
09/04/2013 16,738,608,435,751.29
09/05/2013 16,738,608,362,951.88
09/06/2013 16,738,598,129,329.05
09/09/2013 16,738,567,425,782.46
09/10/2013 16,738,557,190,345.35
09/11/2013 16,738,546,954,446.61
09/12/2013 16,738,543,125,208.38
09/13/2013 16,738,533,025,135.63
09/16/2013 16,738,502,722,145.90
09/17/2013 16,738,492,645,235.04
09/18/2013 16,738,482,606,783.04
09/19/2013 16,738,503,812,337.79
09/20/2013 16,738,493,983,660.09
09/23/2013 16,738,464,494,846.89
09/24/2013 16,738,454,664,319.38
09/25/2013 16,738,444,833,205.56
09/26/2013 16,738,443,175,473.97
09/27/2013 16,738,433,470,635.61
09/30/2013 16,738,183,526,697.32
10/01/2013 16,747,478,675,335.18
10/02/2013 16,747,468,940,509.72
10/03/2013 16,747,468,275,799.27
10/04/2013 16,747,458,528,953.05
10/07/2013 16,747,429,285,635.12
10/08/2013 16,747,419,536,935.48
10/09/2013 16,747,409,787,772.33
10/10/2013 16,747,421,858,503.24
10/11/2013 16,747,411,584,091.53
10/15/2013 16,747,370,534,090.62
10/16/2013 16,747,360,549,057.23
10/17/2013 17,075,590,107,963.57
10/18/2013 17,074,260,390,144.95
10/21/2013 17,075,230,597,788.39
10/22/2013 17,078,769,687,926.64
10/23/2013 17,067,881,125,283.87
10/24/2013 17,077,729,309,281.56
10/25/2013 17,076,507,741,269.44
10/28/2013 17,081,509,219,288.50
10/29/2013 17,090,753,527,402.48
10/30/2013 17,088,263,258,631.09
10/31/2013 17,156,117,102,204.49
11/01/2013 17,108,598,955,343.87
11/04/2013 17,116,705,114,727.92
11/05/2013 17,121,761,484,979.44
11/06/2013 17,121,570,995,931.69
11/07/2013 17,149,154,023,335.85
11/08/2013 17,151,627,467,959.50
11/12/2013 17,154,624,205,951.04
11/13/2013 17,149,193,429,752.16
11/14/2013 17,183,316,943,225.52
11/15/2013 17,189,547,404,790.46
11/18/2013 17,192,878,839,268.39
11/19/2013 17,200,725,370,597.56
11/20/2013 17,190,225,699,170.90
11/21/2013 17,208,963,804,203.72
11/22/2013 17,209,511,322,941.99
11/25/2013 17,211,829,040,346.01
11/26/2013 17,219,110,204,136.29
11/27/2013 17,203,336,836,345.12
11/29/2013 17,217,151,645,105.86
12/02/2013 17,235,032,379,905.81
12/03/2013 17,223,254,862,815.39
12/04/2013 17,222,092,499,153.62
12/05/2013 17,228,699,889,181.63
12/06/2013 17,227,010,669,351.91
12/09/2013 17,230,345,583,111.52
12/10/2013 17,234,005,998,603.93
12/11/2013 17,222,454,811,203.79
12/12/2013 17,226,015,851,914.45
12/13/2013 17,224,129,200,180.84
12/16/2013 17,259,029,055,459.14
12/17/2013 17,268,587,651,056.23
12/18/2013 17,258,809,832,599.01
12/19/2013 17,251,528,475,994.19
12/20/2013 17,250,434,606,977.38
12/23/2013 17,250,656,426,380.22
12/24/2013 17,248,088,481,989.88
12/26/2013 17,226,097,907,646.29
12/27/2013 17,226,267,273,544.34
12/30/2013 17,226,768,075,403.16
12/31/2013 17,351,970,784,950.15
01/02/2014 17,315,970,933,899.63
01/03/2014 17,308,849,523,342.94
01/06/2014 17,310,216,315,568.94
01/07/2014 17,315,227,613,858.79
01/08/2014 17,306,977,954,400.15
01/09/2014 17,281,164,714,573.43
01/10/2014 17,280,842,092,016.14
01/13/2014 17,282,527,565,175.09
01/14/2014 17,287,251,611,151.62
01/15/2014 17,286,874,322,095.94
01/16/2014 17,270,240,354,364.86
01/17/2014 17,273,683,713,523.05
01/21/2014 17,276,126,988,070.62
01/22/2014 17,273,488,616,875.18
01/23/2014 17,261,485,887,733.09
01/24/2014 17,263,279,883,739.66
01/27/2014 17,266,723,744,017.01
01/28/2014 17,271,931,802,733.26
01/29/2014 17,272,506,995,913.71
01/30/2014 17,249,265,796,405.00
01/31/2014 17,293,019,654,983.61
02/03/2014 17,263,040,455,036.20
02/04/2014 17,280,020,592,178.94
02/05/2014 17,281,222,665,378.63
02/06/2014 17,258,482,479,004.37
02/07/2014 17,258,824,690,537.53
02/10/2014 17,258,793,918,103.22
02/11/2014 17,258,792,658,336.62
02/12/2014 17,258,782,272,265.19
02/13/2014 17,258,805,514,290.93
02/14/2014 17,258,795,000,703.07
02/18/2014 17,384,649,566,329.35
02/19/2014 17,385,409,685,452.00
02/20/2014 17,409,111,636,454.46
02/21/2014 17,411,178,036,656.28
02/24/2014 17,413,220,474,647.90
02/25/2014 17,419,220,117,766.69
02/26/2014 17,410,830,777,447.36
02/27/2014 17,426,891,428,702.45
02/28/2014 17,463,228,562,652.94
03/03/2014 17,444,385,246,890.50
03/04/2014 17,467,228,205,267.47
03/05/2014 17,467,541,352,870.06
03/06/2014 17,491,871,158,767.47
03/07/2014 17,491,079,219,453.82
03/10/2014 17,495,622,444,209.79
03/11/2014 17,501,576,037,738.02
03/12/2014 17,491,372,091,598.45
03/13/2014 17,511,461,705,211.85
03/14/2014 17,511,659,595,323.99
03/17/2014 17,546,814,482,078.90
03/18/2014 17,559,060,160,057.74
03/19/2014 17,549,497,313,923.60
03/20/2014 17,546,932,628,558.05
03/21/2014 17,548,206,894,037.06
03/24/2014 17,550,128,150,467.43
03/25/2014 17,555,984,029,917.02
03/26/2014 17,544,080,042,932.50
03/27/2014 17,533,579,816,074.13
03/28/2014 17,554,275,708,064.70
03/31/2014 17,601,227,291,213.89
04/01/2014 17,578,141,920,035.68
04/02/2014 17,585,625,829,197.83
04/03/2014 17,554,778,670,289.33
04/04/2014 17,555,437,713,940.26
04/07/2014 17,559,603,867,896.49
04/08/2014 17,567,074,702,635.03
04/09/2014 17,556,587,058,571.79
04/10/2014 17,539,023,466,494.92
04/11/2014 17,538,602,387,972.87
04/14/2014 17,541,896,989,433.73
04/15/2014 17,576,842,289,814.87
04/16/2014 17,571,837,454,552.98
04/17/2014 17,512,421,133,896.12
04/18/2014 17,516,581,643,567.18
04/21/2014 17,521,417,830,074.79
04/22/2014 17,528,980,978,730.90
04/23/2014 17,525,948,567,765.54
04/24/2014 17,437,874,260,412.18
04/25/2014 17,436,444,226,130.22
04/28/2014 17,440,764,612,875.85
04/29/2014 17,447,321,527,551.15
04/30/2014 17,508,437,127,661.62

OBAMA WAS RIGHT

Remember this famous declaration?

Well Obama was right. Obamacare isn’t adding a dime to the deficit.

It’s adding 12 trillion dimes to the national deficit.

The supposedly independent government drones at the CBO, who spin future deficits as positively as they can with a straight face, have concluded that Obamacare will add $1.2 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.

According to the Marketwatch:

Instead, the CBO projects that it will account for increasing chunks of deficit spending, starting at $20 billion this year and steadily increasing to $159 billion in 2024, for a collective deficit of just under $1.2 trillion. Not only does the report on the federal budget take an in-depth look at the ACA and its effects on the budget, but also on the work force in general. Most of these effects won’t hit until after the next few years, once Obamacare has had a chance to gain momentum and get going.

Of course, back in 2000 the CBO projected budget surpluses in 2010 and a National Debt of about $2 trillion. They only missed by a fraction. If they say Obamacare will add $1.2 trillion to the national debt, triple that number to get in the ballpark of reality.

And it only gets better. Obamacare will destroy jobs, as if we didn’t already know that.

One of the CBO’s most intriguing estimates is that by 2017 there will be 2 million fewer full-time jobs on the market than there would have been without Obamacare, and that figure could climb to 2.5 million by 2024. But the reason isn’t that employers will be reluctant to hire; it’s that workers won’t want to rise to income levels that would cut into their health subsidies, the CBO says. The higher a person’s income, the lower the subsidy under Obamacare.

Again, the CBO is off their rocker on the optimism scale. Small businesses aren’t hiring. Small and large businesses are cutting hours of employees. The unintended consequences have only just begun. Remember, Obama has delayed all the truly horrible aspects of Obamacare until after the mid-term elections, dictatorially deciding when and how to enforce a LAW passed by Congress.

But at least we’ve all saved $2,500 per year in health insurance premium costs.

I’m sure MSNBC will be doing an expose of Obama’s lies tonight on the Maddow Show. I can’t wait to see Obama blame Bush for this multi-trillion dollar gaffe.

This economy destroying, deficit busting, job destroying law was passed solely by the Democratic Party. Why the Republicans are not willing to fight it’s implementation tooth and nail is beyond my comprehension. It just confirms that we are run by one party. The ruling party.

FANNIE & FREDDIE “PROFITS” ARE A FRAUD

Chris Whalen is one of the best bank analysts on the planet. He sees right through the Wall Street/K Street lies and obfuscation. He has analyzed the numbers and concluded that Fannie and Freddie have not generated billions of profits in the last two years. They are losing billions. Accounting fraud does not create profits. These two bloated pigs are insolvent. That is why their stock prices are at $1.50 when they are supposedly generating the highest profits in their history.

Now that Chris has proven they are losing billions rather than making billions, you need to understand the other piece. The $100 billion they have supposedly “paid back” to the Treasury has supposedly “reduced” the Obama deficits. It is untrue. No money was paid. It was an accounting entry based on fraudulent assumptions. The current year deficit is really $100 billion higher than the lies provided by Obama and his minions.

Are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Really Profitable? Really?

rcwhalen's picture
Submitted by rcwhalen on 08/22/2013 06:06 -0400

“As force is always on the side of the governed, the governors have nothing to support them but opinion.  It is, therefore, on opinion that government is founded; and this maxim extends to the most despotic and the most military governments as well as to the most free and popular.”

— David Hume

Update 1 | So are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac really profitable?  For months now, the GSEs have reported rising current profits, an amazing rebound that has caused the hopes of many members of Congress to likewise elevate.  The financial press has been filled with hopeful stories to the effect that the zombie dance queens may actually dig their way out of a several hundred billion dollar hole they created during the subprime crisis.

But now a report released earlier this week by the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Inspector General raises new concerns.  Specifically, the IG asks why Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks have been dragging their feet implementing 2012 accounting changes that would accelerate the timing of tens of billions of dollars of unrealized losses on bad loans from the uber toxic 2004-2008 period. The IG report states:

“The advisory bulletin directed the enterprises and the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBanks) to classify any outstanding loan balance in excess of the fair value of the property, less cost to sell, as “Loss” when the loan is no more than 180 days delinquent. The issue was identified by FHF A examination staff during the course of a credit examination of Freddie Mac completed in January 2012.   The advisory bulletin’s background section provided the following rationale: The purpose of this guidance is to establish a standard and uniform methodology for classifying assets of the Enterprises and the FHLBanks based on the credit quality of the assets. The classification of assets is a critical element in evaluating the risk profile and the adequacy of capital, loan loss reserves, and earnings.”

Thus the question: Have the GSEs really set aside proper reserves given that they do not have to charge-off loans that are 180 days or more delinquent until January 2015? Well, sort of – at least based on the bad loans shown on the respective balance sheets.  I have asked various officials of that world class regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Administration, this precise question for years now. The answer has always been yes, we are adequately reserved. Here’s the official view from FNM:

“The guidance FHFA has issued would change our methodology for charging off loans, but would not materially change our results.”

Is this really true?  After years, no, really decades of obfuscation and outright mendacity, are the folks at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac really telling us the truth now about their financial condition?  Washington is a city of lies, let us remember, with a good part of the population paid to disseminate falsities as part of their job description.  But the biggest lie of all was allowing the GSEs to avoid marking their impaired assets down to fair value as commercial banks are required to do. Had this been done, the losses reported by the enterprises would have been far larger.

Let’s walk through the accounting first and then draw some conclusions.  We’ll focus on Fannie Mae (FNM) to make the narrative easier to follow.  Let’s refer to the form 10-Q filed by Fannie Mae for Q2 2013.  And, by the way, the “material” test is with what information investors need to know to make an informed investment decision, not what is material in terms of the company’s operations or investor relations objectives.

First we start with Page 96 in the notes to the consolidated financial statements.  As of June 30, 2013, FNM had about $140 billion in total delinquent loans on its balance sheet, including about $80 billion in the “seriously delinquent” category.  Good guess for loss given default on this subset of bad paper is well north of the high 20% rates that FNM is reporting on current disposals and the 40% loss severity rates we hear discussed in polite society.  One particular RMBS veteran thinks the severity on the 04-08 vintage is more like 60-70% because so much of the underlying collateral remains under water.  The remaining delinquent loans total about $60 billion.  FNM has about $50 billion in reserves set aside to cover losses on these bad loans and other assets.

To put these numbers in context, FNM reported $10 billion in income in Q2 2013 before paying more than that amount to the US Treasury in a dividend, leaving the enterprise with a GAAP loss.  If you ignore the effect of tax assets, which pushed income up by $40 billion in 1Q 2013, $10 billion per quarter is a reasonable run rate for FNM income.  The fact that FNM has not needed to expend loss reserves, which are an off balance sheet item, to clean up its balance sheet is very significant and explains part of the GSE’s current profitability.

Unlike a commercial bank which must generally charge off a bad loan (either entirely or at least down to recovery or “fair value”) once it goes beyond 90 days past due, the GSEs actually book bad loans at “cost,” plus accrued interest.  So, for example, when a GSE repurchases a bad loan from an RMBS trust, at par plus accrued interest, the loan is then booked and carried at “cost” until the loan is liquidated.

Once you understand the bizarre accounting for loan and real estate owned (REO) losses used by the GSEs you can see why the effect of the advisory bulletin has some investors a bit concerned.  As with Jesse Jones in the 1930s, time is our friend.  But now just imagine you are one of those generous souls led by that Wall Street titan and philanthropist John Paulson who are suing the GSEs based on the assumption that they are truly profitable.  But I digress.

Footnote one on Page 96 the 10-Q illustrates the idiocy of GSE accounting, defining the “recorded investment” of some $95 billion in non-accrual loans as consisting “of unpaid principal balance, unamortized premiums, discounts and other cost basis adjustments, and accrued interest receivable.” Or put another way, of the $140 billion in total delinquent loans at June 30, 2013 — loans which are carried at 100% of their original value, plus accrued interest — FNM is essentially pretending that 60% of that amount represents an “investment.”  Hold that thought.

So if FNM was to immediately implement the new accounting rules put in place in 2012, the question is what losses would be applied to the $140 billion?  Looking at the loss severities for FNM loans bandied about by analysts, a haircut of about 40% would seem like a good point of departure.  But let’s instead go back to the figures as the top of this piece.  If we put a 60-70% loss severity on that $80 billion in seriously delinquent loans, we are talking ~ $50 billion right there.  Take half that rate – 30-35% loss given default — on the remaining delinquent loans and we get another ~ $20 billion or $70 billion or so in total charge offs against reserves.

Why the divergence from current FNM loss severities in the estimates?  Because, as is axiomatic, the better loans and REO assets with lower losses tend to get sold first.  To be conservative, in keeping with the FHFA guidance, a more severe haircut is appropriate.  If the loss severities turn out to be lower, then the enterprise can book a recovery to loss reserves, which will positively affect income.

So if we were to implement the guidance from FHFA today, it is pretty clear that the profits of the GSEs would have been largely offset by the allocations needed to replenish the reserves.  If we use the income figures from the FNM 10-Q, all of the “profits” from 2012 and the first half of 2013 would disappear, and then some.  Reserves of $54 billion would be consumed and another $10-20 billion would need to be immediately allocated from income to cover the balance.  Treasury would need to replace this deficit to avoid seeing FNM operating insolvent. Just for giggles, compare this adjustment to the $1.6 billion in charge-offs taken by FNM in Q2 2013 under the current rules.

FNM would then need to retain income to replenish reserves for future losses, but fortunately loss rates on new production are far lower than during the awful 2004-2008 period. Arguably a reserve buffer of $25-30 billion or half of current reserves would be a reasonable starting point for the “new,” post crisis FNM.  Some may differ with my view on loss severities, but for an investor in FNM, a $60-70 billion unrealized loan loss certainly seems material to me.

But this is not the end of the analysis.  In addition to loans, FNM and Freddie Mac have significant amounts of single family and multifamily real estate – 96,000 REO assets in the industry parlance – that was taken over from a debt previously contracted. Losses from foreclosed properties, for example, totaled over $300 million in Q2 2013 under existing rules.  FNM currently shows about $10 billion in REO on balance sheet under “acquired property” or an average of about $96,000 per property.  On Page 24 of the FNM 10-Q, the enterprise discusses recent experience disposing of REO:

“Sales prices on dispositions of our REO properties improved in the second quarter and first half of 2013 as a result of strong demand compared with the prior year. We received net proceeds from our REO sales equal to 68% of the loans’ unpaid principal balance in the second quarter of 2013 compared with 59% in the second quarter of 2012 and 66% in the first half of 2013 compared with 58% in the first half of 2012. The increase in sales prices contributed to a reduction in the single-family initial charge-off severity rate to 24.93% for the second quarter of 2013 from 30.59% for the second quarter of 2012, and to 26.09% for the first half of 2013 from 32.07% for the first half of 2012. The decrease in our charge-off severity rate indicates a lower amount of credit loss at foreclosure and, accordingly, a lower provision for credit losses.”

The sales discounts from the unpaid principal balance or “UPB” described above are pretty low compared to what has been going on in the real estate market generally.  In many parts of the US, the spread differential between REO and voluntary sales has disappeared, yet the fact remains that there are many home owners in the US that are still underwater. Remembering the high preponderance of 2004-2008 exposure in the FNM book, that 25% loss experience on REO liquidations in 2Q 2013 seems miraculous.

Going back to the loss severities seen in whole loans, the experience with REO sales certainly shows improvement but we must remember that the homes are carried at “cost” as with whole loans.  If we take 25-30% discounts to UPB as a point of departure, we probably ought to think of a 40-50% discount on the entire portfolio of REO properties in the FNM portfolio to comply with the FHFA guidance. Call it $4-5 billion on the REO book.   Again, this mark may be conservative, but FNM can take any future gains above the new “fair value” marks as recoveries to reduce future reserve contributions and enhance income.  The charge-off should be sufficient to ensure that any future adjustment is in favor of FNM and the US Treasury.

Not only does FNM seem to be unprofitable under the new FHFA guidance, but payments made to Treasury might need to be reversed.  Tens of billions in capital injections would be required in order to fund the write-down of FNM’s bad loans and replenish reserves for future loss, creating yet another twist for both markets and investors to consider.  Since under the second preferred stock agreement between Treasury and FNM the US government confiscates the net income of the enterprise, there is nothing left to buffer FNM against future loss.

Ultimately neither the Obama Treasury nor members of Congress want to get into this mess before the 2014 election, but suffice to say that it is incorrect to claim that either FNM or Freddie Mac are profitable. The final twist comes from the big question, IMHO, namely how much further loss will be uncovered if Congress ever summons the courage to wind down the zombie dance queens.

Given the above analysis, a strong case can still be made that FNM and Freddie Mac ought to be moved to receivership and liquidated.  This process would extinguish the supposed claims by “investors” like John Paulson and move the assets of the GSEs into private hands as quickly as possible.  But that would be the good news.  A prompt resolution of both enterprises would generate growth, income and jobs – something nobody in Washington understands.  But we ought to ask, perhaps in a future rant, just why the FHFA IG office decided to make a fuss now, no doubt at the instigation of the US Treasury and Obama White House.

AND THE BAND PLAYED ON

A confluence of events last week has me reminiscing about the days gone by and apprehensive about the future. I’ve spent a substantial portion of my adulthood rushing to baseball fields, hockey rinks, gymnasiums, and school auditoriums after a long day at work. I’d be lying if I said I enjoyed every moment. Watching eight year olds trying to throw a strike for two hours can become excruciatingly mind-numbing. But, the years of baseball, hockey, basketball, and band taught my boys life lessons about teamwork, sportsmanship, winning, losing, hard work, and having fun. There were championship teams, awful teams and of course trophies for finishing in 7th place. As my boys have gotten older and no longer participate in organized sports, the time commitment has dropped considerably. Last week was one of those few occasions where I had to rush home from work, wolf down a slice of pizza and head out to a school function. It was the annual 8th grade Spring concert.

My youngest son was one of a hundred kids in the 8th grade choir. I think it was mandatory, since none of my kids like to sing. As my wife and I found a seat in the back of the auditorium where we could make a quick escape at the conclusion of the show, neither of us were enthused with the prospect of spending the next ninety minutes listening to off-key music and lame songs. I’ve been jaded by sitting through these ordeals since pre-school. But a funny thing happened during my 30th band concert. I began to feel sentimental about the past and sorrowful about the future for these Millennials.

The Millennial generation was born between 1982 and 2004. Therefore, they range in age from 9 years old to 31 years old. There are approximately 87 million of them, or 27.5% of the U.S. population. In comparison, the much ballyhooed Boomer generation only has 65 million cohorts remaining on this earth. The Millennials will have a much greater influence on the direction of this country over the next fifteen years than the currently in control Boomers. There has been abundant scorn heaped upon this young generation by their elders. In a fit of irrationality befit the arrogant, hubristic, delusional elder generations, they somehow blame a cohort in which 54 million of them are still younger than 21 years old for many of the ills afflicting our society. This disgusting display of hubris is par for the course among these delusional elders.

Are Millennials addicted to their iGadgets, cell phones and Facebook pages? Probably. Do they spend too much time on the internet and playing PS3 & Xbox? Certainly. Have they been indoctrinated in social engineering gibberish like diversity and planet worship by government run public school bureaucrats? Absolutely. Are they young, foolish, immature, irrational and not respectful towards their elders? You betcha. Teenagers have acted like this forever. You acted like that. The ongoing crisis in this country and our unsustainable economic system are in no way the result of anything perpetrated by the Millennial generation.

Can the Millennial generation be blamed for the $17 trillion national debt, $222 trillion of unfunded un-payable social obligations promised by corrupt politicians, $1 trillion of annual deficits, undeclared wars being waged across the globe on behalf of the military industrial complex arms dealer mega-corporations, economic policies that have resulted in 48 million people dependent on food stamps, tax policies that enrich those who write the code, trade policies that benefit corporations who gutted the industrial base and shipped jobs overseas to slave labor factories, or monetary policies that have destroyed 96% of the dollar’s purchasing power? They had no say in the creation of our untenable welfare/warfare state.

There are no Millennials among the 535 corrupt bought off politicians slithering down the halls of Congress. There are no Millennials running the Too Big To Control Wall Street banks. There are no Millennials in charge of the mega-corporations that buy and sell our politicians. There are no Millennials at the upper echelon of the Military Industrial Complex or in the upper ranks of the U.S. Military. But, and this is a big but, they have done most of the dying in the Middle East over the last ten years in our multiple undeclared preemptive wars of aggression. They have died under the false pretenses of a War on Terror, when they are truly dying on behalf of the crony capitalists who profit from never ending war. They have been fighting and dying to protect “our oil” that happens to be under “their sand”. If the energy independence storyline was true, why is our military perpetually at war in the Middle East?

The Millennials will also be required to do the heavy lifting over the next fifteen years of this Fourth Turning Crisis. The Silent Generation is dying off rapidly. The Boomer generation has done some hard living and some hefty eating and with the oldest of their cohort hitting 70 years old, their supremacy will begin to diminish over the coming fifteen years. At 87 million strong, and millions yet to reach voting age, the Millennials will become more influential by the day regarding the future course of this nation. The question is what will be left of this country by the time they assume control. They are saddled with $1 trillion of student loan debt, peddled to them by the government and Wall Street with the false promise of good paying jobs and the opportunity for a better life than their parents lived. They have obediently followed the path laid out by their elders, but they have been badly misled. This American dream has been shattered upon an iceberg of debt, delusion, deception and denial. The unsinkable American empire’s hubris and arrogance are leading to its demise. The Millennials are coming of age during a Crisis that will reach momentous magnitudes over the next fifteen years, and they had nothing to do with creating the circumstances which will propel the chaos and anarchy that ensues. But, they will bear the brunt of the dreadful consequences.

Generational Bridge

“The Boomers’ old age will loom, exposing the thinness in private savings and the unsustainability of public promises. The 13ers will reach their make or break peak earning years, realizing at last that they can’t all be lucky exceptions to their stagnating average income. Millennials will come of age facing debts, tax burdens, and two tier wage structures that older generations will now declare intolerable.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The kids on the stage at the 8th grade Spring concert were all around 14 years old. They are unaware they are in the midst of a twenty year period of Crisis. The boys are at that gawky looking stage with pimply faces and gawky limbs. The girls mature quicker than the boys at that age. These youngsters have barely begun their lives. I was amazed at their proficiency with a wide variety of musical instruments. They displayed poise and talent. The soloists exhibited composure well beyond their years. The performers were all musically endowed and proved that hard work and practice pays off. They were clearly enjoying themselves. They were all dressed in their Sunday best. I found myself enjoying the show despite my jaded attitude upon entering the auditorium. Even my son, wearing one of my ties, actually appeared to be singing during the choir performance. What I saw were hundreds of bright eyed Millennials with their hopes and dreams for a bright future intact. They have no idea what trials and tribulations await them.

I reached a milestone on the age chart last week that had me ruminating about yesteryear and contemplating the future. I reached the half century mark. Birthdays generally do not faze me, but the intersection of the 8th grade concert and my landmark birthday had me pondering my purpose for inhabiting this world. I’ve likely realized two-thirds of my life. The final third of my life will be spent trying to maneuver through the minefields of this Fourth Turning. I’m a father to three Millennial boys. I consider it my duty to defend and support them during this Crisis. Strauss & Howe wrote their book in 1997 and predicted a Great Devaluation in the financial markets around the time Millennials were entering their twenties. This Crisis began in September 2008 with the worldwide financial collapse created by Wall Street “Greed is Good” Boomers, as the oldest Millennials entered their twenties. It continues to worsen as more Millennials approach their twenties. We’ve reached a point in history when the elder generations need to sacrifice in order to insure younger generations have a chance at some form of the American dream.

I believe each generation has an obligation to future generations. We are bridge between preceding generations and future generations. We have a civic obligation to manage the resources of the country in a prudent manner. It’s our duty to leave the country in a financially viable condition so younger generations have an opportunity to live a better life than their parents. Every generation that preceded the Millennials has achieved the goal of having a better standard of living than their parents. I don’t believe my boys will enjoy a better life than I’ve lived. We’ve lived well beyond our means for decades. Government, Wall Street banks, corporations and individuals have run up a $56 trillion tab and are sticking the Millennials with the bill.

The $17 trillion national debt accumulated by elder generations to benefit themselves and $222 trillion of unfunded entitlements promised to themselves is nothing but generational theft. It’s immoral and possibly the most selfish act in human history. I’m ashamed that my generation and older generations have committed this criminal act of theft. Deficit spending today with no intention of repaying that debt is a tax on future generations. This egotistical abuse of power by the current and past regimes must be reversed voluntarily or it will be done by force. I’m 50 years old and will dedicating my remaining time on this earth fighting to create a sustainable future for my kids and their kids. The lucky among us get eighty years on this planet to make a difference. When did the definition of success become dying with the most toys and spending your life screwing your fellow man by accumulating obscene levels of wealth at their expense? If Boomers and Generation X have any sense of guilt about what they have done, they would be willingly offering to sacrifice their ill-gotten entitlements.

Not only are those currently in power not proposing to scale back their spending, debt accumulation, or entitlement transfers, but they have accelerated the pace of each in the last five years. An already unsustainable corrupted economic structure is being driven towards collapse by psychopathic central bankers and cowardly captured politicians. These are acts of treason against the youth of this country and larceny on a grand scale. It will lead to generational warfare and these crooks will pay for their transgressions. Strauss & Howe suspected in 1997 the elders might cling to their illicit profits acquired at the expense of the Millennials:

“When young adults encounter leaders who cling to the old regime (and who keep propping up senior benefit programs that will by then be busting the budget), they will not tune out, 13er – style. Instead, they will get busy working to defeat or overcome their adversaries. Their success will lead some older critics to perceive real danger in a rising generation perceived as capable but naïve.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The elders who represent the status quo do perceive real danger in the rising Millennial generation. The initial skirmishes occurred in the midst of the Occupy protests. The young protestors initially focused on the true culprits in the crashing of the financial system and vaporizing of the net worth of millions – Wall Street bankers and their sugar daddy at the Federal Reserve. In a display of status quo bipartisanship you had liberal Democrat mayors in cities across the country call out their armed thugs to beat the millennial protestors into submission while being cheered on by Fox News and the neo-cons.

The existing status quo regime provides the illusion of choice, but both political parties are interchangeable in their desire to control our lives, flex our military might around the globe, indebt future generations and write laws to favor their corporate and banking masters. The establishment is showing contempt for the futures of our youth. Their solutions to the criminally created financial crisis have been to reward reckless debtors and bankers at the expense of future generations. Their doling out of hundreds of billions in student loan debt and artificial propping up of home prices has effectively made it impossible for millions of young people to get their lives started. Boomers have done such a poor job saving for their retirements they are unable to leave the workforce. Since January 2009, despite adding $400 billion of student loan debt, Millennials have a net loss in jobs, while the Boomers have taken 4 million jobs.

Strauss & Howe anticipated that older people would be anguished to see good kids suffer for the mistakes they had made. They thought the elders couldn’t possibly be shallow enough, selfish enough, or immoral enough to deny the Millennial generation a chance at the American Dream. They were wrong. The old regime has no plans to step aside or sacrifice on behalf of younger generations. The implications of this resistance will be dire.   

“The youthful hunger for social discipline and centralized authority could lead Millennial youth brigades to lend mass to dangerous demagogues. The risk of class warfare will be especially grave if the 20% of Millennials who were poor as children (50% in inner cities) come of age seeing their peer-bonded paths to generational progress blocked by elder inertia.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The social mood in this country continues to deteriorate as the sociopathic financial elite accelerate their pillaging of the working middle class, steal money from senior citizens through zero interest rate inflationary policies, and enslave our youth in the chains of crushing debt and promise of dead end jobs. When the next leg down in this ongoing depression strikes like an F5 tornado, the simmering anger in this country will explode in a chaotic frenzy of violence and retribution. The chances of class and generational warfare have increased exponentially due to the actions of the elderly regime over the last five years.

Generational Sacrifice

You got your whole life ahead of you, but for me, I finish things.” – Walt Kowalski – Gran Torino   

  

A couple days after the Spring concert I was flipping through the 650 channels on my TV with nothing worth watching when I stumbled across the 2008 Clint Eastwood movie Gran Torino. This was the third episode within the week that had me thinking about the future of my kids. It was his highest grossing film in history. Eastwood played a bigoted tough guy Korean War veteran whose Detroit suburban neighborhood had deteriorated into a dangerous gang infested Asian war zone. The movie did not follow the standard Eastwood plot where he kills dozens of bad guys. He grudgingly befriends two young Millennial teenage Laos refugees who live next door. He had lost his wife of 50 years. He was in his 70s and dying from some undiagnosed illness. I viewed the movie as an allegory for the generational sacrifice that should be taking place now.

Eastwood’s character, Walt Kowlaski, decided to finish things his way. He realized the two Millennials would never find peace or have a chance at a better life until the criminal gang running the show in the neighborhood were confronted and defeated. He knew he was too old to kill six gang members singlehandedly, so he made a choice to sacrifice himself and be gunned down in cold blood in front of multiple witnesses so the perpetrators would go to jail and allow his Millennial companions to have a chance at a better life. He sacrificed his life for the good of young people who weren’t even related to him.  This message has not connected with the elder generations who control the purse strings and political system in this country. The media propaganda machine supporting the existing regime continues to peddle a storyline that debt doesn’t matter, consumption is good, saving is for suckers, and passing the bill for unfunded entitlements to future generations is not immoral and cowardly. Walt Kowalski displayed courage, bravery, and valor that is sorely lacking in the elderly generations today.

At the age of 50 I have a choice with my remaining 20 or 30 years. I can choose to keep accumulating material goods with debt, voting for politicians who promise never to cut my entitlements, believing deficits growing to infinity are beneficial to the economic health of the nation, supporting the military industrial complex as they wage undeclared wars across the world, applauding the Orwellian fascist surveillance measures instituted to give the illusion of safety while sacrificing freedoms and liberties and selfishly looking out for my best interests. Or I can stand up to the corporate fascist old boy regime and lure them into a violent response that will ultimately lead to their downfall. I’m willing to sacrifice what is supposedly “owed” to me on behalf of my kids and all Millennials. They don’t deserve to start life in a $200 trillion hole created by their parents and grandparents. It is disconcerting to me that more Boomer and Generation X parents are unprepared, unwilling or too willfully ignorant to forfeit entitlements awarded them under false pretenses in order to preserve a decent standard of living for their children and grandchildren. The Bernaysian propaganda programmed into their brains over decades by the sociopathic central planning status quo has created this inertia.

The inertia will be replaced by frenzied activity when this unsustainable system ultimately fails. Time seems to be standing still. People have been lulled into a false sense of security even though history is about to fling us into a chaotic transformational period in history. How do I know this is going to happen? Because it happens every eighty years like clockwork. The best laid plans of the men running the show will be swept away in a whirl of pandemonium, violence, war and reckoning for sins committed against humanity. There will be no escape.

“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance. The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Our country has entered a period of Crisis. We may or may not successfully navigate our way through the visible icebergs and more dangerous icebergs just below the surface. The similarities between the course of our country and the maiden voyage of the Titanic are eerily allegorical.

The owners of the ship (Wall Street, Washington politicians, crony capitalists) are arrogant and reckless. They declare the ship unsinkable, while only providing half the lifeboats needed to save all the passengers in case of disaster in order to maximize their profits. The captain (Ben Bernanke) has been tendered the greatest cruise liner (United States) in history. The initial voyage across the Atlantic Ocean has drawn the financial elite ruling class (financers & bankers) onboard, occupying the luxurious state rooms on the upper decks. But, the lower decks are filled with young poor peasants (Millennials) who are sneered at and ridiculed by those in the upper decks. A maiden voyage should always be approached cautiously. A prudent captain would not take undue risks.

Our captain (Ben Bernanke) wants to make his mark on history. He considers himself an expert in navigating dangerous waters (Great Depression) because he studied dangerous waters at his Ivy League school. It doesn’t matter that he never actually captained a ship in the real world.  He declares full steam ahead (reducing interest rates to 0% and throwing vast amounts of fiat currency into the engine room boilers). Midway through the voyage, the captain is handed a telegram warning of icebergs (potential financial catastrophe) ahead. If he slows down the vessel, he will not set the speed record and receive the accolades of an adoring public. He ignores the warning and steams on to his rendezvous (eternal disgrace) with destiny.

In the middle of the night, the lookouts (Ron Paul, John Hussman, Zero Hedge) cry iceberg!! But, it is too late. The great ship (United States) has struck an enormous iceberg (debt & currency crisis). At first, it seems like everything will be OK. The captain and crew assure the passengers that everything is under control and their evasive action has saved the ship. But below the waterline, the great ship (United States) is taking on water (toxic levels of debt, un-payable entitlement promises, trillion dollar deficits, political & financial corruption). The engine room (Federal Reserve) works frantically to alleviate the damage (QE to infinity). The captain is sure the compartmentalization of the ship will save it. One of the designers of the ship (David Stockman) sadly declares that the ship will surely sink. The captain orders the band (CNBC, Fox, MSNBC, CNN) on deck to distract the passengers from their impending fate with soothing music. The owners of the ship (Wall Street, Washington politicians, crony capitalists) aren’t worried. They collected their fees upfront and over-insured the vessel. They anticipate a windfall when the ship sinks. It worked last time.

To avoid mass panic, the crew (government apparatchiks) has locked the youthful poor peasants (Millennials) below deck. The captain and his crew are content to let them go down with the ship. They’ve decided the women, children, and senior citizens (Middle Class) can also be sacrificed. The financial elite ruling class (financers and bankers) are piling into the boats with the ship’s jewels, escaping the fate of the peasants. The captain (Ben Bernanke) has no intention of going down with the ship. In a cowardly act, he leaps onto the 1st lifeboat to be launched. We are on a voyage of the damned. The great cruise liner (United States) has a fatal wound and is headed for a watery grave. Are we going to let the owners, captain and crew dictate who will be saved in the few lifeboats or will we rise up and throw these guilty parties overboard?

 

It comes down to the abuse of power by a few evil men and their henchmen as they have centralized their control over our financial, political, economic and social institutions. The existing social order is an ancient, rotting, fetid swamp of parasites that will be drained during this Fourth Turning. The Millennials are rising and will be the spearhead of the coming revolution. As each day passes they will become a more powerful force and the power of the existing regime will wane. Meanwhile, the band will play on as the ship of state descends into the abyss.