FOURTH TURNING WINTER OF DEATH

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.

Worst Storms of All Time - The Ground Blizzard of 1977 - WorldAtlas

“Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning

It was less than a year ago on December 16, 2021 when our dementia patient in chief was instructed by his handlers to lie, obfuscate and demonize critical thinking Americans who refused to become victims of the Big Pharma, Fauci promoted, untested, unsafe, ineffective gene therapy by declaring “we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death for the unvaccinated — for themselves, their families and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm”. Biden’s vaccine mandates were overturned in the courts. The unvaccinated did not die from Covid. Very few people died from Covid. Some really old and infirm people on death’s doorstep died with Covid. Some very unhealthy obese people died with Covid. But even 95% of the old and unhealthy survived Covid.

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Will This Housing Downturn Be Worse Than 2008?

Submitted by EPB Macro Research’s Eric Basmajian,

This is a map of home price growth at the housing bubble’s peak in 2005.

And this is a map of home price growth at the peak of the housing bubble in 2021.

See the difference?

When we look at home price growth at the peak of the last bubble in 2005, what we see is that home price growth was very concentrated in certain states and cities. Arizona, Nevada, California and Florida saw annual home price growth above 20%.

National home price growth averaged about 11% at the peak in 2005.

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ALARMING STATISTICS

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HOUSING CRASH 2.0

Have you seen or heard these facts from the MSM talking heads? They are building more houses and apartments today than any time in history. We have entered a recession and the Fed is raising interest rates. The feckless politicians and Wall Street whores aren’t warning anyone that this would be the worst time in history to buy a house. I’m warning you. Don’t be a fool, like those who bought at the top in 2005/2006.

“Combined, there are a record 1.680 million units under construction. This is above the previous record of 1.628 million units that were under construction in 1973.” – Via Calculated Risk

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Housing Crash Imminent: As Mortgage Rates Explode Price Cuts Soar And Buyer Demand Collapses

Via ZeroHedge

A little over a month ago, when mortgage rates were still “only” 5% we shared several devastating anecdotes from real estate agents and industry execs who validated our worst fears: US housing was imploding… fast, with subsequent observations only confirming this dire conclusion about the state of the most popular asset class among the US middle class.

Fast forward to this week when things have gone from worse to catastrophic, because with 30Y mortgage rates soaring at the fastest pace on record to above 6%, or levels last seen just before the housing bubble burst…

…. sending the average mortgage payment on a median mortgage up by almost $800 in just the past 6 months…

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WILL THERE BE A 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

“All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed, they must rely exclusively on force.” George Orwell

Vanessa E. Thompson on Twitter: "Just a reminder..." / TwitterEvil Assad, Evil Gaddafi, Now Evil Putin: How the West Sells War (and Makes a Killing) | Groupe Gaulliste Sceaux

“Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac.” George Orwell

The smell of tyranny is in the air. The level of propaganda, disinformation, and mistruth has reached astounding heights, as the ruling oligarchy/Deep State/globalist cabal are thrashing about violently because their frauds are being exposed on a daily basis. This shift to the tyranny of force has massive implications for everyone on the planet. When every quote from Orwell’s 1984 applies every day to everything swirling around us, you begin to realize we are in the midst of a dystopian nightmare which gets more ghoulish by the day.

The last two years have been a fraud of epic proportions, conducted by a cadre of evil money titans, their financial, media, and medical apparatchiks, with the objective of tearing down our existing social and economic structure and “resetting” the world where they own everything and you own nothing, eat bugs, and provide the slave labor needed to keep society functioning. Of course, this will be after they dispose of tens of millions of useless eaters through their Covid/Vaxx scheme, global war, and mass starvation.

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Too Big To Sell

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock

Wealthy baby boomers are trapped in homes that are too big to sell. They want to downsize but can’t get what they paid.

This was guaranteed to happen, and did. Baby boomers and retirees built large, elaborate dream homes only to find that few people want to buy them.

Please consider a Growing Problem in Real Estate: Too Many Too Big Houses.

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LOOK OUT BELOW!!!

30 year mortgage rates are at seven year highs. I refinanced at 3.25% years ago. Now rates are at 4.75% and rising.

Remember the housing bubble that burst from 2006 through 2012? Well, home prices nationally are now about 10% higher than the 2005 bubble peak.

Image result for national home prices chart

Meanwhile, real wages have stagnated and rising energy and food prices are sapping discretionary spending.

Rising mortgage rates, highest home prices in history, and a tapped out consumer. I wonder what happens next?

Image result for funny housing market crash

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ARROGANT MONETARY POLITBURO

That didn’t take long. Mortgage purchase applications are at 14 year lows, but home prices had miraculously risen by double digits last year. The Wall Street Muppet Fleecing Machine has been in full fuck America mode for the last two years, taking free Bennie Bucks and becoming landlords to the ignorant masses. This priced first time buyers and real Americans out of the home market. But that’s all right. Wall Street shysters were able to pay themselves $26.7 billion in bonuses for fucking over the people once again. At least prices in the Hamptons will stay elevated.

What we do know id that Wall Street is filled with lemmings. Their little MBA created financial models are all blinking red right now. That means sell. They have stopped buying and are now seeking the greater fools and clueless dupes. One problem. The average American is dead broke. Ask Radio Shack, Sbarro, JC Penney and Sears.

There are no buyers for what Wall Street wants to sell. Look out below folks. Housing crash 2.0 has arrived. Those paper gains over the last two years are going to vaporize. POOF!!!! Like they never even happened. Thank Bennie, Janet, Jamie, Lloyd, Fink and the rest of the psychopathic assholes on Wall Street. They make Gordon Gekko look like an upstanding citizen.

Guest Post by David Stockman

The Wall Street Home Buying Binge Is Over….Already!

It seems like only yesterday I was lamenting the arrival of housing bubble 2.0 and the Fed’s nefarious policy of distributing ZERO-COGS (i.e. nearly zero short-term  borrowing costs) to Wall Street speculators— which had then swooped into busted housing markets from Phoenix to Florida looking for the next big carry trade. This stampede of $5,000 suits riding John Deere lawnmowers into the likes of Scottsdale AZ had commenced less than 24 months ago, but already it had levitated prices by 25-50 percent in some of these markets.

It had also given rise to rivers of ink in the financial press about a “new asset class” called  “buy-to-rent” single family homes. Right on time, it had already resuscitated Wall Street’s meth labs of financial innovation, which were busy “slicing and dicing” single-family rental streams into this year’s favorite flavor of toxic waste.

I also ventured the guess that these new Harvard Business School ”landlords” would turn tail and run the minute prices stopped bounding upward because it was all a speculative frenzy, not an investment program, in the first place. They self-evidently had no core competence in managing 200,000 single family homes scattered all over America’s sand belt suburbia. In a post called “Housing Bubble 2.0 ” I further suggested:

“The idea that Colony Capital of Los Angeles or Blackstone of Park Avenue posses magical economies of scale in the nationwide single family rental market is just plain bonkers…..(this time) instead of millions of Main Street speculators who believed up to the very end that housing prices would rise to the sky, we now have a few thousand institutional speculators who will head out of town on their John Deere’s as fast as they came….”

Actually, that was all said, well, yesterday! Today a Bloomberg headline updated the story:

 ”Home Buying Binge Ends as Prices Surge”

Bloomberg reported that:

Blackstone Group LP (BX) is slowing its purchases of houses to rent amid soaring prices after a buying binge made it the biggest U.S. single-family home landlord. Blackstone’s acquisition pace has declined 70 percent from its peak last year, when the private equity firm was spending more than $100 million a week on properties”’(and) investing $8 billion since April 2012 to buy 43,000 homes in 14 cities…..”

As for the new “asset class” that only a few months ago was being touted as a sure bet for $1 trillion status, the #1 real estate honcho in all of Wall Street and long time head of Blackstone’s hit-and-run real estate campaigns, Jonathan Gray, told Bloomberg quite succinctly:

“The institutional wave has passed…..It’s at a much lower level than it was 12 or 24 months ago.”

Well, that’s bubble finance at work. Home prices in hundreds of Sunbelt cities had been painfully brought down to earth during 2008-20011. Affordability based on sound mortgage underwriting and honest household income was being slowly restored. Yet right then and there the lunatic QE policies of the Bernanke-Yellen claque catalyzed Wall Street’s short-lived housing stampede. In the process, honest wage-earners got squeezed out of the market and the get-rich-quick contagion was once again unleashed in America’s suburban expanse.

So the questions recurs: Does our arrogant monetary politburo have the slightest idea what it is doing?  Sadly, the Bloomberg headline makes the answer abundantly clear. The Eccles Building is clueless!

Photographer: Jacob Kepler/Bloomberg 
Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg 

Blackstone Group LP Global head of real estate Jonathan Gray