THERE’S SOMETHING HAPPENING HERE…….

There’s something happening here
But what it is ain’t exactly clear
Buffalo Springfield

Something is not right, and the drastically divergent messages from Powell and his cronies at the Fed over the last month and a half con firm this suspicion. It does remind me of September 2019 when the repo market revealed the underlying mechanisms within the financial system were malfunctioning and were about to lead to another massive financial crisis. Powell restarted QE and “luckily” the covid scamdemic was rolled out, so Powell and and our corrupt political class could pump trillions into the system and keep it alive.

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Beware the Plot Behind Interest Rates

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain before you understand the real trend. It is true that Federal Reserve officials are committed to fighting inflation and expect higher interest rates to remain in place until more progress is made, according to minutes released from the central bank’s December meeting. Also what has been reported is that at that meeting, policymakers expressed the importance of keeping the restrictive policy in place while inflation holds unacceptably high.

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Why the Housing Market Is About to Get Much Worse

Via Birch Gold Group

Why The Housing Market Is About to Get Much Worse

From Peter Reagan

The “American Dream” of home ownership is already out of reach of most Americans, thanks to the 50% increase in home prices over the last couple years. Homeowners who’ve purchased since the beginning of the most recent housing bubble are already regretting their decision, based on the chaos in the housing market.

Why does this matter?

It’s hard to overstate the importance of housing in the U.S. economy. For nearly every American family, their home is their single biggest asset.

Now, we don’t generally think of our homes as an “asset” because we live in them. We usually think of them as a necessity that happens to have a market value.

However, most American families actually do treat their homes as financial assets. For example: Continue reading “Why the Housing Market Is About to Get Much Worse”

Top Analyst Predicts Where Gold Is Going, and It’s Almost Unbelievable

Via Birch Gold Group

Top Analyst Predicts Where Gold Is Going, and It Is Almost Unbelievable

From Peter Reagan

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Fed mismanagement creates huge opportunities for gold investors; gold did what it’s supposed to this year, and a Japanese perspective on gold as a safe haven.

Expert predicts $2,400 gold within 12 months

Gold investors shouldn’t look forward to a reversal in the Federal Reserve’s tightening policies because a flip-flopping Fed would create the kinds of economic instability that not even the biggest gold investors would appreciate.

Two really big and important questions have been making the rounds recently: Continue reading “Top Analyst Predicts Where Gold Is Going, and It’s Almost Unbelievable”

A Rare Paradigm Shift With Huge Implications… 5 Reasons Why It’s Imminent

Via International Man

by Nick Giambruno

Rare Paradigm Shift

Although many don’t realize it, interest rates are simply the price of money.

And they are the most important prices in all of capitalism.

They have an enormous impact on banks, the real estate market, and the auto industry. It’s hard to think of a business that interest rates don’t affect in some meaningful way.

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Let’s Twist Again: The Coming Curve Control and What It Means for the Gold Market

Via International Man

Gold Market

As has been widely reported, yields on longer-dated bonds have shot up in recent weeks, with the 10-year Treasury moving to 1.72% up from under 1% at the beginning of this year to its highest level in more than a year.

This rapid move comes as inflation expectations have suddenly increased, amid the vaccine roll-out, expectations of an improving economy, and new stimulus measures. Recent 10-year and 30-year auctions have both been mediocre, as the bond vigilantes are demanding more to lend money for the longer term.

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The Panic in Interest Rates is Just Getting Started

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

It’s not my revenge, it’s fiscal mismanagement. Look, this is the chaos we have coming and sorry, it is the beginning, not the end. It’s not even a fluke or a blip. So get used to it. Indeed, the Fed has lost control of short-term rates. Trump can jawbone all he wants for zero to negative rates. Sorry! The free markets are showing something else lies in wait.

The Repo Rate reached a high of 10% by about 9 am just before the stock market opened. The fed funds rate was testing the Fed’s upper limit. The Fed was forced to intervene I believe for the first time since the 2008 crisis.

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Uncertain Future for Monetary Policy as POTUS Publicly Calls for Rate Cut While Fed Holds Steady

From Birch Gold Group

trump and jerome powell

On Tuesday, POTUS took to Twitter and called for the Fed to cut rates by 1%, pointing to 3.2% GDP growth and “wonderfully low inflation.”

However, it’s hard to say if inflation is as “wonderfully low” as POTUS claims.

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Fed Rate Hike Forecast and Trade Tariff Talks Increasing Market Uncertainty

From Birch Gold Group

fed rate hike and trade war tariffs

Only two and a half months ago, the Fed signaled two rate hikes for 2019. But the Powell-led Fed appears confused because they’ve just adjusted that forecast to zero.

They also forecasted the end of its “QT” (quantitative tightening) balance-sheet runoff by September 2019. According to a CNBC article, the Fed is giving the market what it wanted, suggesting even more confusion.

This is explained in another CNBC piece:

The Fed forecast no rate hikes in 2019, and that is down from two hikes forecast earlier. The central bank also indicated it intends to end the reduction of its massive $4.2 trillion balance sheet by September. However, the Fed also trimmed its economic growth forecast for 2019.

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For consumers with credit card debt, Fed rate hike will sting

Via Marketwatch

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A mere quarter percentage point rate increase by the Federal Reserve might seem small and gradual, but for millions of consumers with credit card debt it will be stinging.

In a report this week, WalletHub analyzed data and found that U.S. consumers have been piling on credit card debt at an alarming pace, adding $92 billion in new debt last year alone—twice the postrecession average.

Lenders so far seem only too happy to extend credit, thanks to low levels of defaults and charge-offs, but the day of reckoning is coming, warns WalletHub.

“Only four times in the past 30 years have we spent so much in a year. And in each of those prior cases, the charge-off rate—currently hovering near historic lows—rose the following year,” said WalletHub.

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BULL IN A CHINA SHOP

“So the modern world may be increasing in technological knowledge, but, paradoxically, it is making things a lot more unpredictable.”Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder

“Success brings an asymmetry: you now have a lot more to lose than to gain. You are hence fragile.”Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder

I had read Nassim Taleb’s other best-selling tomes about risk, randomness and black swans – Fooled by Randomness & The Black Swan. They were not easy reads, but they were must reads. He is clearly a brilliant thinker, but I like him more because he is a prickly skeptic who scorns and ridicules academics, politicians, and Wall Street scumbags with gusto. There were many passages which baffled me, but so many nuggets of wisdom throughout each book, you couldn’t put them down.

When his Antifragile book was published in 2012, the name intimidated me. I figured it was too intellectual for my tastes. When I saw it on the shelf in my favorite used book store at the beach, I figured it was worth a read for $9. I’m plowing through it and I haven’t been disappointed.

His main themes are more pertinent today than they were in 2012. He published The Black Swan in 2007, just prior to one of the biggest black swans in world history – the 2008 Federal Reserve/Wall Street created financial collapse. His disdain for “experts” like Bernanke, Paulson, and Wall Street CEOs, and their inability to comprehend the consequences of their actions and in-actions as the financial system was blown sky high, was a bulls-eye.

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LIES, LIES & OMG MORE LIES

“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli

Every month the government apparatchiks at the Bureau of Lies and Scams (BLS) dutifully announces inflation is still running below 2%. Janet Yellen then gives a speech where she notes her concern inflation is too low and she needs to keep interest rates near zero to save humanity from the scourge of too low inflation. I don’t know how I could survive without 2% inflation reducing my purchasing power.

This week they reported year over year inflation of 1.9%. Just right to keep Janet from raising rates and keeping the stock market on track for new record highs. According to our beloved bureaucrats, after they have sliced, diced, massaged and manipulated the data, you’ve experienced annual inflation of 2.1% since 2000. If you believe that, I’ve got a great real estate deal for you in North Korea on the border with South Korea.

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Fed’s “Backdoor” Rate Hike Just Became Official

From Birch Gold Group

Markets are reacting sharply to an unexpected decision revealed in the Fed’s newly disclosed meeting minutes. The decision could drastically change the economy’s direction over the coming months, and cause rates to rise far faster than anticipated.

Last month, we discussed how the Fed could implement a “stealth” or “backdoor” rate hike by trimming its balance sheet. At the time, nobody thought the Fed would take such action in the near term, but the meeting minutes reveal it’s coming soon.

Here’s what this news means for Americans and their money.

Continue reading “Fed’s “Backdoor” Rate Hike Just Became Official”

Beware of Bond Funds

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

We are entering a phase of rising interest rates, so bond funds will do poorly. We are not yet at a stage where U.S. government bonds would default or be swapped. Therefore, my recommendation has only to do with rising rates. What you should do is stay short-term, like 90-day paper or less, be it corporate or government. This is just an interest rate play moving into 2018.

As we move into 2018, we will look at corporate vs government shift. That will become the play, but that will most likely unfold after we begin to see serious problems with government debt outside the United States. In Japan, the ownership of public debt by the private sector is in freefall. Debt to GDP held by the private sector before Abe came to power was 177%, which had collapsed to 100% in 2012, and has continued to decline to about 75%. The Bank of Japan through its quantitative easing now owns more government debt than the private sector. Japan is in VERY SERIOUS trouble and there is no possible way to reverse this nightmare.

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3 Vital Things to Know Before Next Week’s Anticipated Fed Rate Hike

From Birch Gold Group

In response to the last major U.S. financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve slashed rates to below 1%, which is where they’ve stayed ever since. Only once since then has the Fed raised rates, a small 0.25% increase in 2015. Analysts speculated throughout 2016 that the Fed would raise rates again. But ultimately, concerns about pressuring the fragile U.S. economy with another hike kept the Fed from acting.

The Fed knows it can’t keep artificially suppressing rates forever. Continuing to coddle the American economy won’t make its problems go away. Quite the opposite, it will only make them more damaging when judgement day finally comes.

That’s why – as time runs out and the market is currently rallying – the Fed is widely expected to finally raise rates again next week at its last meeting of 2016, which runs from December 13 to 14.

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