NO ONE GETS OUT OF HERE ALIVE (PART TWO)

In Part One of this article I exposed the numerous false narratives being peddled to the masses, as this Fourth Turning is entering the intense phase headed towards an unknown climax.

Image result for false narrative

I’ve been expecting the next shoe to fall in this Fourth Turning for years, but the financial elite have pulled the debt levers to keep the Ponzi scheme alive far longer than a reasonable person would expect. We are only six weeks into 2020 and it seems like a year’s worth of major events have already occurred. The year started with the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in Iraq.

For the next week the world was awash in rhetoric about World War III and possible revolution in Iran. Accusations of Trump using the Wag the Dog method to deflect the negative press from the impeachment hearings were rampant among the half of the country that despises Trump. Soleimani was lauded as a hero by the left and a terrorist by the right. Now, the entire episode seems like ancient history, as more interesting squirrels have arisen for the propaganda media to chase.

The entire month of January was occupied by the ongoing coup/impeachment against Donald Trump. Schiff, Nadler and Pelosi doing their best impression of the three stooges, conducted a laughable prosecution in the House, revealing this was nothing more than a desperate attempt to avoid losing to Trump in a November landslide. The predictable trial in the Senate resulted in an acquittal and Trump’s popularity soaring to all-time highs, as independents realized the Democrats misused the power of impeachment for purely political purposes. Trump’s SOTU address infuriated Pelosi to such an extent it provoked her into acting like a petulant child, tearing up the speech. Future campaign ads wrote themselves.

Continue reading “NO ONE GETS OUT OF HERE ALIVE (PART TWO)”

Congressional Motto Needed: I Propose “To Rob and Plunder”

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock

I did a search for a Congressional Motto for the US and came up empty.

In the wake of a Republican sellout to Comcast, ATT, and Verizon, a slogan is badly needed.

I propose “To Rob and Plunder“.

What happened?

Yesterday, the Republican House passed a bill that allows internet providers from selling nearly everything you do to the highest bidder.

The legislation goes far beyond Google displaying ads based searches you do.

Privacy Destroyed

Genn Greenwald (emphasis his) explains in To Serve AT&T and Comcast, Congressional GOP Votes to Destroy Online Privacy.

Continue reading “Congressional Motto Needed: I Propose “To Rob and Plunder””

Fed Vice-Chairman Admits Fed Sponsors Wealth Inequality

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer made a couple of controversial statements this week regarding negative interest rates.

Fisher stated negative rates “seem to work” while admitting they are bad for savers but they “typically they go along with quite decent equity prices.”

There are two problems in play. The first is an explicit admission that the Fed sponsors wealth inequality. The second problem is Fisher does not understand how markets even work.

Failed Transmission

John Hussman takes Fisher to task on how markets work Failed Transmission – Evidence on the Futility of Activist Fed Policy.

Continue reading “Fed Vice-Chairman Admits Fed Sponsors Wealth Inequality”

About Those Record Auto Sales… An Insider’s View

Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

On May 3, industry analysts are pumped as April 2016 is the best April in history for car sales. Some analysts expect record sales for the entire year.

I doubted that then and I doubt that even more now.

Please consider an email from “FW” a 15-year electrician at Ford who chimes in with some relevant anecdotes and a more recently, a communication bulletin from the plant where he works.

On April 27, “FW” pinged me with these comments…

Hi Mish

 

Like I stated in my last email, I work for Ford. I work in a high volume assembly plant. We build Ford Escape and Lincoln MKC. We build over 700 vehicles a shift and work two 10 hour shifts a day. We also work a lot of Super Sundays (weekend extra production)

 

About month ago we went through model change. After the model change it is normal for the volume to go down in order to work out all unexpected problems. Also for the first 3 weeks of the new model we don`t ship any new cars to the dealers in case there is some issues discovered.Just now we starting back our normal volume and normal shipping.

 

I expected that once things go back to normal we will be working a lot of Super Sundays to make up lost production. I knew of at least 13 Super Sundays that were schedule in next few months. However I just learned from production manager that all 13 had been cancelled.

 

Maybe it is just the normal slow down and it will pick right back but I am not very confident.

 

Sincerely

FW

Continue reading “About Those Record Auto Sales… An Insider’s View”

Shocking Statistic: Over 40% Of Student Borrowers Don’t Make Payments

It’s funny how the faux journalists at the WSJ do an article about this a month after I already ripped apart the Obama lies.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/03/19/the-great-student-loan-scam/

 

Submitted by Mike “Mish” Shedlock of MishTalk

Department of Education Wonders “Why 40% of Student Borrowers Don’t Make Payments”; Blame Bush (Seriously)!

Over 40 percent of those in student loan programs have stopped making payments. Many borrowers have never made any payments.

The department of education (a useless body that I would eliminate in one second if given the chance), cannot figure out why this is happening.

“We obviously have not cracked that nut but we want to keep working on it,” said Ted Mitchell, the Education Department’s under secretary.

The Wall Street Journal reports More Than 40% of Student Borrowers Aren’t Making Payments.

More than 40% of Americans who borrowed from the government’s main student-loan program aren’t making payments or are behind on more than $200 billion owed, raising worries that millions of them may never repay.

 

While most have since left school and joined the workforce, 43% of the roughly 22 million Americans with federal student loans weren’t making payments as of Jan. 1, according to a quarterly snapshot of the Education Department’s $1.2 trillion student-loan portfolio.

 

About 1 in 6 borrowers, or 3.6 million, were in default on $56 billion in student debt, meaning they had gone at least a year without making a payment. Three million more owing roughly $66 billion were at least a month behind.

 

Meantime, another three million owing almost $110 billion were in “forbearance” or “deferment,” meaning they had received permission to temporarily halt payments due to a financial emergency, such as unemployment. The figures exclude borrowers still in school and those with government-guaranteed private loans.

 

Navient Corp. , which services student loans and offers payment plans tied to income, says it attempts to reach each borrower on average 230 to 300 times—through letters, emails, calls and text messages—in the year leading up to his or her default. Ninety percent of those borrowers, which include federal borrowers as well as those who hold private loans, never respond and more than half never make a single payment before they default, the company says.

Crisis Easy to Explain

Continue reading “Shocking Statistic: Over 40% Of Student Borrowers Don’t Make Payments”

Warmongering Jackass Proposes Forced Servitude by Millennial to Fight Isis

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock
National Journal writer and senior political columnist Ron Fournier is calling for “shared sacrifice” to fight ISIS.His odd definition of “shared sacrifice” is forced conscription for all 18- to 28-year-olds.

Please consider How to Defeat ISIS With Millennial Spirit and Service.

I know a better way to fight ISIS. It starts with an idea that should appeal the better angels of both hawks and doves: National service for all 18- to 28-year-olds,” says Fournier.

Fournier is not only a “warmongering jackass”, but a moron as well if he believes his idea can appeal to doves.

He says he has a better idea. Actually, I do. Send Fournier and all the other jackasses who believe in forced servitude to fight Isis.

The way to perpetual war is forced servitude and attitudes of those like Fournier. We rightfully got rid of servitude, so let’s not bring it back.

You can send a protest email to Fournier here: [email protected].

On most browsers, this link opens up your email server automatically: Email Ron Fournier

The gall of this moronic jackass is stunning. My friend Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with this comment just a bit ago: “Oh my god, what a creepy statist slave-driver this guy is.

When I asked Pater if I could post his comment, he replied “Please quote in capital letters!

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


Caught on Video: Police Smash Woman’s Phone as She Tapes Crime Scene; How to Stop “I am Above the Law” Mentality

Hat tip Westcoaster

In yet another cops are above the law incident Watch U.S. Marshal Crush Camera.

Nosy neighbors caught a video of a law enforcement officer in California snatching a bystander’s phone and smashing it after U.S. Marshals realized she was recording their bust of a biker gang meeting. The 53-second video, taken from across the street, shows a gun-toting marshal grabbing the woman’s phone out of her hand, throwing it to the ground, and finally kicking it. According to a spokesperson for the marshals, the video “is being reviewed.”

How to Stop “I am Above the Law” Mentality

The only way to stop this kind of “above the law” mentality is to immediately suspend, without pay, any police officer guilty of such behavior. A second offense is grounds for dismissal. As an added incentive, fired officers should lose 100% of all accrued benefits.

And in this case, repayment for the phone should come directly out of the suspended officer’s paycheck (at say a 500% of damages rate).

I am open to negotiation on the terms mentioned above. But the terms must be severe enough to cause an immediate attitude change.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot


Reality Check: How Fast is China Growing? Global Recession at Hand

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock

How Fast is China Growing?

Analyst estimates of Chinese growth keep getting lower and lower. Yet, those declining estimates have all been from a lofty level: From 10% to 9%, to 8% to 7.5%.

China’s growth target for 2015 is 7.0%.

Many question those growth estimates. I certainly do. Chinese growth is not consistent with energy demand, raw materials, or personal consumption. Worse yet, growth does not factor in pollution or malinvestments in vacant housing, vacant malls, vacant airports, etc.

Malinvestments, pollution, and State-Owned-Entreprise (SOE) boondoggles (fraud is actually a better word) should all subtract from current GDP. Instead, fraud, pollution, and malinvestments have been buried and will remain buried until it’s impossible to hide them.

I assumed China was growing slowly. After all, 7% is one hell of a lie. However, I now wonder if China is growing at all.

What caused my double take was a fascinating presentation by Anne Stevenson-Yang, Co-Founder of JCap and author of China Alone: The Emergence from, and Potential Return to Isolation.

Reality Check

Please consider the following video presentation by Anne Stevenson-Yang.

Comments between images are my notes, often not organized into complete sentences.

Link if video does not play: Is China Already in a Hard Landing?

The video is very lengthy, but there are a number of speakers. Yang was the first speaker. Her presentation was about 28 minutes, less if you skip the first four introductory minutes or so. The rest is time well spent.

Is China turning into Japan?
That’s the new topic.
Debt matters – $30 Trillion – up $9 trillion since 2008
Debt is 200-300% of GDP counting Shadow Banks.

Continue reading “Reality Check: How Fast is China Growing? Global Recession at Hand”

Illinois Passes Law Making it a Felony to Video Police; How to Stop Police Abuse; More on CIA Torture

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock

 

How to Stop Police Abuse

There’s one way and one way only to stop police abuse: Criminally prosecute it, then allow civil penalties.

In a podcast today with Chris Martenson, Chris suggested civil penalties should come straight out of the police retirement fund, not taxpayer pockets.

But as with CIA torture, government does not really want to stop abuse, they want to stop reporting the abuse.

Earlier this year, Illinois passed a law making videotaping of police illegal. However, the Illinois Supreme Curt struck down the law as a violation of free speech.

So what did the Illinois legislature do? They wrote an even worse law.

Illinois Passes Law Making it a Felony to Video Police

Via email from Jacob Huebert, senior attorney at the Liberty Justice Center, the Illinois Policy Institute’s free-market public-interest litigation center.

Earlier this year, the Illinois Supreme Court struck down a state eavesdropping law that made it a crime for citizens to record conversations with police or anyone else without the other person’s permission. The court held that the old law “criminalize[d] a wide range of innocent conduct” and violated free-speech rights. In particular, the court noted the state could not criminalize recording activities where there is no reasonable expectation of privacy, including citizens’ “public” encounters with police.

Now the old law is back, with just a few changes, in a new bill sent to the governor’s desk by the Illinois Senate on Dec. 4. The bill not only passed, but did so overwhelmingly with votes of 106-7 in the House on and 46-4-1 in the Senate.

The new version is nearly as bad as the old one.

Under the new bill, a citizen could rarely be sure whether recording any given conversation without permission is legal. The bill would make it a felony to surreptitiously record any “private conversation,” which it defines as any “oral communication between 2 or more persons,” where at least one person involved had a “reasonable expectation” of privacy.

When does the person you’re talking to have a reasonable expectation of privacy? The bill doesn’t say. And that’s not something an ordinary person can be expected to figure out.

A law must be clear enough for citizens to know in advance whether a particular action is a crime. This bill doesn’t meet that standard, which should be reason enough for a court to strike it down if it becomes law.

But lack of clarity isn’t the only problem with this bill.

Although it appears to be designed to accommodate the Illinois Supreme Court’s ruling striking down the old law, the bill actually is designed to continue to prevent people from recording interactions with police.

The bill says it would only be a crime to record someone where there is a reasonable expectation of privacy, which should mean that recording public encounters with police would not be a crime, and the old law’s fatal constitutional flaw would no longer exist.

But the bill doesn’t really fix the problem. Again, citizens can’t be expected to know for sure precisely which situations give rise to an “expectation of privacy” and which don’t. The Illinois Supreme Court said that police don’t have an expectation of privacy in “public” encounters with citizens, but it did not explain what counts as a “public” encounter. So if this bill becomes law, people who want to be sure to avoid jail time will refrain from recording police at all, and the law will therefore still effectively prevent people from recording police.

The bill would also discourage people from recording conversations with police by making unlawfully recording a conversation with police – or an attorney general, assistant attorney general, state’s attorney, assistant state’s attorney or judge – a class 3 felony, which carries a sentence of two to four years in prison. Meanwhile, the bill makes illegal recording of a private citizen a class 4 felony, which carries a lower sentencing range of one to three years in prison.

There’s only one apparent reason for imposing a higher penalty on people who record police in particular: to make people especially afraid to record police. That is not a legitimate purpose. And recent history suggests it’s important that people not be afraid to record police wherever they perform their duties so that officers will be more likely to respect citizens’ rights, and officers who do respect citizens’ rights will be able to prove it.

The bill might also provide an excuse to scuttle body cameras for police. Police may argue that using body cameras to record encounters with citizens outside of “public” places would violate the law, as citizens have not consented to being recorded.

We should mention one more thing about this bill. It was introduced on Tuesday, Dec. 2, as an amendment to an existing bill on a completely different subject. The amendment removed all of the bill’s previous content and replaced it with the new ban on recording. The House passed it the following day, and the Senate passed it the day after that. So the people who would have cared most about this bill probably didn’t notice it in time to object. They might have had their attention focused on other issues that were in the news, such as the recorded police killing of Eric Garner.

Even if this bill were constitutional, it would still be unnecessary and a terrible idea. Most other states allow a person to record a conversation with only one party’s consent and don’t try to scare people out of recording police by threatening them with felony charges.

Despite its bipartisan support, Gov. Pat Quinn should do one more thing to bolster his legacy before he leaves office and veto this bill.

Jacob Huebert
Senior Attorney, Liberty Justice Center

How to Stop Torture

The way to stop CIA torture is the same as the way to stop police abuse: criminal prosecution.

Obama’s fluff statement “we won’t let this happen again” will only be believable if it comes with criminal prosecution from the top down, preferably at an international war crimes tribunal.

UN Calls for Prosecution

Yesterday, Ben Emmerson, United Nations Special Rapporteur on counter terrorism and human rights, called for prosecution of CIA officers and other US Government officials.

International law prohibits the granting of immunities to public officials who have engaged in acts of torture. This applies not only to the actual perpetrators but also to those senior officials within the US Government who devised, planned and authorised these crimes.

As a matter of international law, the US is legally obliged to bring those responsible to justice. The UN Convention Against Torture and the UN Convention on Enforced Disappearances require States to prosecute acts of torture and enforced disappearance where there is sufficient evidence to provide a reasonable prospect of conviction. States are not free to maintain or permit impunity for these grave crimes.

It is no defence for a public official to claim that they were acting on superior orders. CIA officers who physically committed acts of torture therefore bear individual criminal responsibility for their conduct, and cannot hide behind the authorisation they were given by their superiors.

However, the heaviest penalties should be reserved for those most seriously implicated in the planning and purported authorisation of these crimes. Former Bush Administration officials who have admitted their involvement in the programme should also face criminal prosecution for their acts.

Dick Cheney and CIA Director are War Criminals

So far, the Only Person Jailed for CIA Torture is Man Who Reported It!

Cheney’s defense of torture (see CIA Torture Reports: Frozen to Death; Rectal Rehydration, Broken Limbs; 54 Countries Assist US; Dick Cheney War Criminal) makes Cheney and various CIA directors my top choices for prosecution.

Torture Counterproductive

The sad thing about torture is the CIA often gets innocent victims, and torture does not work even when they get the right guy (See US Army Major Replies to My Torture Post).

Today, USAM responded …

“I am certain torture simply creates more enemies. For example, it’s well known that Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Al Qaeda #2, went into an Egyptian prison in the early 1980s a simple fundamentalist Muslim, and after years of unspeakable torture (including being tied up and raped by prison dogs), came out a blood-thristy butcher. How many more terrorists has this CIA program created? I shudder to think.”

What does the CIA and the state of Illinois want to do about abuse? Sad answer: Stop reporting abuses, and make it illegal to record them.

Addendum: A Conversation With Friends

I had the following email discussion regarding the Illinois law with two close friends. Seldom are we in complete agreement on things.

First friend: Two words. Rodney King

Second friend, a lawyer: That is one of the dumbest, anti-democratic laws I have ever heard of. In my view, it is unconstitutional. What a bunch of morons.

First Friend: God! All three of us are on the same sheet of music!

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Crony Capitalism Tribute: Mafia Dons vs. Politicians; Who Really Won the Election?

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock

Who Really Won the Election?

If you think Republicans won the recent mid-term election you are mistaken. PolicyMic has One Chart that Shows Who Won.

Most Expensive Senate Races

Money Won the Election!

The Center for Responsive Politics projects the 2014 mid-term election will cost roughly $3.67 billion.

When all is said and done, Team Red (all Republican candidates, parties, committees and conservative outside groups) will spend $1.75 billion on this election. Team Blue (all Democratic candidates, parties, committees and liberal outside groups) will spend a total of $1.64 billion. [Outside groups account for the rest.]

Election Cost Estimate

Just three-one-hundredths of one percent of Americans wrote a check larger than $2,600 — the maximum one individual can give to a candidate each election — during this cycle.

But those are numbers based on the system of so-called “hard money” donations — money given to candidates or committees, which is strictly limited. Outside groups rarely deal in sums so small. Most outside groups rely heavily on large donors. Very large donors

The number one donor of disclosed outside money is Steyer, followed by former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has given $20 million to super PACs, of which 98 percent went to liberal or Democratic recipients. But despite those top two donors, conservative donors dominate the top 20 — 15 of them are conservative. The three other liberal donors are: Fred Eychaner ($7.9 million), George Soros ($3.5 million) and hedge-funder James Simons (and his wife Marilyn), who have given $3 million.

The top conservative donor to outside groups is Paul Singer, of hedge fund Elliott Management, who has given $9.3 million. Last cycle’s top donor — both to outside groups and overall — was Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Venetian casino in Las Vegas, who with his physician wife Miriam gave $92 million.

Topping the list of organizations contributing money to outside groups is the National Education Association, which has given a whopping $22.4 million to outside groups. Following the NEA are a slew of other labor unions — the Carpenters & Joiners Union ($11.2 million), the AFL-CIO ($7.6 million) and AFSCME ($6 million). These unions gave almost exclusively to liberal outside groups.

There are, however, a handful of conservative organizations on the list of big organizational donors, including the No. 3 group, the National Association of Realtors, which gave to its own super PAC; it has spent the money in support of Republicans by a two-to-one margin.

An important caveat: These lists of top donors (individuals or organizations) do not include donations made to dark money groups, which in some instances pass money on to super PACs.

Finger-Pointing

Each side can (and does) point the finger at the other. Regardless, the end results show incumbents get reelected year after year. Even in the 2014 mid-term rout, Republicans only picked up 12 House seats.

Want to get elected?

First you need to pass a litmus test for your party.

Want to reform Social Security or Medicare? If you do, you better not say so. Next, you better not offend both unions and the NRA. Depending on where you live, one of those alone may do you in. Both and you are toast.

Live in a state that gets military contracts? If so, you cannot get elected if you are “weak on defense”.

Bottom line: If you want to get elected, you better listen to what big money wants, or you don’t get any of it. And you need money to win!

Mafia Dons vs. Politicians

Gordon Long has an interesting post this week called The Crony Tribute System.

Instead of clipping text here are some self-explanatory graphics.

Crony Tribute

Mafia Tribute System

US Political System

Evolution of Crony Capitalism

“Impenetrable” Firewall Between Public Service and Private Profit

Why Does It Takes a Crowbar to Review Regulations?

Investigating Fraud and Corruption

Corporations are People, Money is Speech

Checks and Balances

Does It Matter Which Party Controls the Senate?

I believe those graphics from Gordon Long sum things up quite nicely.

If you believe differently, Charles Hugh Smith may change your mind with an excellent set of questions in his post If You Really Think It Matters Which Party Controls the Senate, Answer These Questions.

Eight Questions

  1. Will U.S. foreign policy in the Mideast change from being an incoherent pastiche of endless war and Imperial meddling?
  2. Will basic civil liberties be returned to the citizenry?
  3. Will the predatory, parasitic policies of the Federal Reserve that virtually everyone from the Wall Street Journal to what little remains of the authentic Left understands has greatly increased income and wealth inequality be reined in?
  4. Will the steaming pile of profiteering, corruption, waste, fraud and ineptitude that is Sickcare in the U.S. be truly reformed so its costs drop by 50% to match what every other developed democracy spends per person on universal healthcare?
  5. Will the influence of Big Money be well and truly banned from politics?
  6. Will the incentives in the Status Quo be reset to punish rapacious financialization and gaming the system and reward productive investment and labor?
  7. Will anything be done to dismantle the Neofeudal Debt-Serfdom known as student loans?
  8. Will any prudent assessment be made of unaffordable weapons systems like the F-35 Lightning–$1.5 trillion and counting for aircraft that will soon be matched by drones that cost a fraction of the F-35’s $200 million a piece price tag?

Financial Repression

I define financial repression as “a set of fiscal and monetary policies for the expressed benefit of the ruling class: politicians, banks, and the already wealthy, at the expense of everyone else.

Any doubt that financial repression by central banks and lobbyist-sponsored government legislation explains income inequality?

For further discussion, please see Gordon Long Video Interview of Mish: Topic – Financial Repression (and How to Defend Yourself From It).

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

How Can There Not Be a Currency Crisis?

How Can There Not Be a Currency Crisis?

By Casey Research

The Fed claims that signs of economic stress are very low, but savvy investors feel otherwise. With geopolitical unrest expanding and central banks doing the opposite of the right things, is a currency crisis barreling toward us? See what Mish Shedlock had to say about the state of world finance at the 2014 Casey Research Summit:

Even though the Summit is long over, you can still benefit from every presenter… every panel discussion… every investment recommendation. Order the 2014 Summit Audio Collection and you’ll receive all of that, plus all slides used in the presentations and a bonus highlight reel. Choose between instantly available MP3 files or CDs… or get both for maximum convenience. Order now so that you’re well positioned to thrive in the coming crisis economy.

The article How Can There Not Be a Currency Crisis? was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Obama’s Lame Response to Ebola; No Protocols but Lots of Fearmongering; Where’s the Common Sense?

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock

 

Ebola Fearmongering

I seldom watch TV. But today I am on the road and watched CNN from a restaurant. I did not have sound, but I did see captions.

CNN’s headline story was ridiculous. CNN placed the blame for the intraday DOW plunge of 460 point on ebola.

There was no mention of the 21-Point Plunge in Empire State manufacturing Index. Nor was there any mention of weak consumer spending.

What about PEs in the stratosphere? No mention of course. (For discussion, please see Stock Buybacks Peaked With Stock Market in 2007: History About to Repeat?)

Instead, CNN assumed the DOW plunge was based on ebola.

Obama’s Lame Response

Fear is in the air, and it’s easy to assign blame. A few simple questions will help explain.

  1. Is there a chance of spreading the disease by coughing or sneezing? Yes.
  2. Would I want to sit on a plane next to someone who was in contact with an ebola patient? No, and neither would anyone else.
  3. Would I want to sit on a plane next to someone from a country where ebola is viral? No, and neither would anyone else.

To stop the spread of the disease and the accompanying panic, I have a fourth question:

Why isn’t there a flight ban on those from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone (and every other country where there is a major outbreak)?

Instead, we take temperatures even though the incubation period is as long as three weeks.

To top it off, today we learn 2nd Texas Worker with Ebola Took Flight With Elevated Temperature, and the Center for Disease Control OK’d the flight.

New shortcomings emerged Wednesday in the nation’s response to the Ebola virus after it was revealed that a second nurse was infected with Ebola at a hospital here and that she had traveled on a commercial flight the day before she showed symptoms of the disease.

The nurse, Amber Joy Vinson, 29, was on the medical team that cared for the Ebola victim Thomas Eric Duncan after he was admitted to the hospital on Sept. 28 and put in isolation. Vinson should not have traveled on a commercial flight, federal health officials said, when she boarded Frontier Airlines Flight 1143 on Monday, en route from Cleveland to Dallas-Fort Worth.

One official said Vinson had called federal health officials before boarding the plane to report having a slightly elevated temperature but was allowed to fly.

Second Texas Nurse with Ebola Transferred to Special Facility

The Guardian reports Second Texas Nurse with Ebola Transferred to Special Facility.

Concerns over US response intensify after reports say the nurse told the CDC that she had a fever but was still allowed to fly.The second nurse diagnosed with Ebola in Texas is to be transferred from Dallas to a special bio-containment unit in Atlanta, officials announced on Wednesday, as they acknowledged failings in the response to the arrival of the virus in the US.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also said that the 29-year-old nurse, Amber Vinson, flew on a commercial flight from Cleveland, Ohio to Dallas with a low-grade temperature a day before she was diagnosed. While in Ohio, she also reportedly travelled from Cleveland to Akron.

Concerns about the US response to the crisis intensified on Wednesday night when it was reported that Vinson told the CDC that she had a slight fever before she boarded the flight but was not told to stay put.

Vinson is the second healthcare worker to have contracted Ebola at Texas Health Presbyterian hospital in Dallas, which treated Thomas Eric Duncan, a Liberian who was the first patient in the US to be diagnosed with Ebola. Another nurse, 26-year-old Nina Pham, was diagnosed at the weekend. Both had cared for Duncan, who died in an isolation ward on 8 October.

The second infection called into question the Dallas hospital’s ability to protect staff treating Ebola patients, and raised concerns about the quality of the initial response to Duncan’s diagnosis by state and federal agencies.

Dr Tom Frieden, the CDC director, conceded on Wednesday that Vinson should not have been allowed to take the flights to Ohio. “We will, from this moment forward, ensure that no other individual who is being monitored for exposure undergoes travel in any way other than controlled movement,” Frieden said.

According to Frieden, the two nurses who contracted Ebola in Dallas had “extensive” contact with Duncan in the days before he was diagnosed, when he was extremely ill, excreting large quantities of highly contagious body fluids.

Protocols? What Protocols?

“Were protocols breached? The nurses say there were no protocols,” said National Nurses United Co-President Deborah Burger in a call with reporters Wednesday.

Is the US attempting to contain the disease or not?

In typical US fashion, no one can come up with proper protocols until after panic sets in.

Texas governor Rick Perry cut short a trip to Europe to deal with the ebola crisis in Texas, and President Obama cancelled a campaign trip to deal with the outbreak.

Where’s the Common Sense?

In response to McCain Calls for Ground Troops in Syria and an Ebola Czar; Secret Friends a couple of people claimed I was overly downplaying the risk of ebola.

I plead not guilty. Before these latest incidents, I emailed there should be flight bans and procedures to stop the risk of spreading (and that was always my expectation).

What I did not see (but easily could have) was the totally inept response from this administration.

However, even Obama now realizes the situation is serious. He must, because he cancelled a campaign fundraiser. What can possibly be more serious than that?

So, rest assured, unless ebola quickly mutates, the odds of a massive outbreak in the US is extremely unlikely (provided of course common-sense protocols are finally adopted).

Will Common Sense Finally Prevail?

Well, not quite. I actually expect the underwhelming response so far will go overboard in the other direction by orders of magnitude.

Here’s an easy prediction: This will culminate with a claim from Obama that he saved us all from ebola.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

AT LEAST $40 BILLION PER YEAR TO FIGHT “TERRORISTS” WE CREATED TO FIGHT OUR OTHER ENEMIES

It was about a year ago when the neo-cons and supporters of the military industrial complex (every Congressman with a defense contractor in their district and contributor to their re-election campaign) warned of the dire cuts to the Defense budget. It didn’t matter that they weren’t actually cuts. It was a slowing in the rate of increase. But who needs the truth when a good storyline will do.

Just as our beloved arms industry was going to see a slight drop in their obscene blood profits, a new enemy arose from nowhere. No one had ever heard of ISIS one year ago. Shitstain McCain was over in Syria taking pictures with a bunch of rag headed “freedom fighters” and Obama was trumping up false gassing charges against Assad.

We funneled arms and money to these “freedom fighters”. They have now somehow morphed into the dreaded ISIS army of beheaders. We now have Assad and ISIS as our sworn enemies, even though they are fighting each other. Turkey is our ally. The Kurds are our ally. ISIS and Turkey are fighting the Kurds. And Iran will always be our enemy. Russia is now an imminent threat to our freedom in the Ukraine.

This all makes sense. Right?

Now Obama and his new neo-con allies are committing to fight ISIS, Assad, the Taliban, Al Qaeda, Russian rebels, and the dastardly Iranians forever. That sounds cheap. The opening quote is $40 billion per year. Remember when Larry Lindsey was fired from the Bush White House when he estimated the total cost of the Iraq War would be $50 billion? The final tally will be in the $6 TRILLION range. Missed it by that much.

Do you think the initial estimate for fighting American made “terrorists” of $40 billion per year will be too high or too low? When one of our cruise missiles blows up one of the tanks we gave to Iraq, does that count as a double expense?

I always come back to who benefits from this shit. The military industrial complex is more powerful than you know. They are enriched by endless war. Peace leads to declining profits. Eisenhower was right. We didn’t listen.

“This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence — economic, political, even spiritual — is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the militaryindustrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.

The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.”

 

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock

 

Defense Dept. to Request $30-40 Billion a Year to Fight ISIS; History Lessons

Anyone recall how the war in Iraq would pay for itself? That was the US Defense Department estimate in 2003.

Now some $3 trillion later (add in veterans’ benefits, depreciation of equipment, humanitarian aid, covert action, and paying for the military efforts of our coalition ‘partners’ and the Total Cost of Iraq, Afghan Wars is $4-6 Trillion.

Come Hell or High Water

That $4 to $6 trillion Iraq, Afghan cost projection was made in 2013. That estimate assumed the costs would be winding down now. They won’t.

On September 30, 2014 Vice President Joe Biden’s pledge to get out of Afghanistan “come hell or high water by 2014” came to an abrupt halt when President Obama agreed to a deal to leave US troops in the country until 2024 “at least“.

For details and an assessment of that announcement, please see “Come Hell or High Water” Promise Morphs Into “Infinity and Beyond”.

How Much Will Fighting ISIS Cost?

Boston Globe writer Linda J. Bilmes asks Fighting the Islamic State — how much will it cost?.

President Obama and his military top brass have pronounced that the effort to defeat the Islamic State will be “long” — translation: expensive. The Pentagon has admitted to spending over $1 billion so far, with the current pace running at some $10 million per day. Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments believes the annual bill for military operations will range from $4 billion to $22 billion, depending on duration, scope, and the extent to which ground forces get involved — which is becoming increasingly likely. Obama has ruled out sending troops, but it is clear the Pentagon has not given up on boots on the ground — they just may not be worn entirely by Americans.

Twelve months ago, the wartime culture of “endless money,” as former Defense Secretary Robert Gates dubbed it, with its endless “emergency” funding from Congress (nearly $2 trillion in more than 30 special funding bills) — was finally coming to an end. The Beltway was filled with talk of belt-tightening at the Department of Defense, including a 10-year $497-billion cut imposed by the so-called sequester. The Pentagon was proposing to shrink the size of the armed forces, trim military compensation and benefits, and mothball expensive weapons and military installations left over from the Cold War.

But now that’s all so-last-fiscal-year. The new trend is ramping up Pentagon spending. At their press conference last week, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared that they don’t have enough funding to conduct the operation against the Islamic State.

In addition, Congress is refusing to let the Pentagon make even modest changes to its current base benefit plan. This will surely encourage the department to ask for another blank check to pay for new operations. Requests are already mounting.

The combined cost of abandoning planned cutbacks at the Defense Department, new spending to combat the Islamic State, and extra foreign military assistance means that America will wind up spending up to $100 billion more on military activities than we had expected this year alone.

Washington assumes that we will simply borrow whatever is needed — and continue to pass the cost of today’s wars onto future generations. This feckless approach has already led to much higher national debt, as well as rampant waste and corruption in our military appropriations.

Financing the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts with debt has hidden the true costs from public view. President Obama has just asked Americans to embark on another decade-long military engagement. He needs to propose a strategy for how it should be paid for, and what sacrifices will be required.

$100 Billion More Than Expected Already This Year Alone

Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments believes the bill will “range from $4 billion to $22 billion” annually, even though we are going to spend $100 billion more this year on defense than expected.

How’s that work? I’ll tell you how: Money is pooled into an “Overseas Contingency Operation” slush fund and spent as the department wants. Moreover, veterans’ benefits, medical treatment and numerous other war costs don’t show up in any war-related buckets.

New U.S. Price Tag for the War Against ISIS: $40 Billion a Year

In a 100% guaranteed to be underestimated cost analysis, the Fiscal Times reports New U.S. Price Tag for the War Against ISIS: $40 Billion a Year.

With the war against ISIS off to a rocky start, there are signs that the Obama administration is getting ready to up the ante substantially on weaponry, manpower and aid to allies – at a cost of an additional $3o billion to $40 billion a year.

Earlier, Gordon Adams, a military analyst at American University, told The Fiscal Times that the mission to stop ISIS will cost $15 billion to $20 billion annually, based on his “back of the envelope” calculations. Other analysts have made similar forecasts. But based on soundings of the defense establishment, Adams said Thursday that the Defense Department would almost certainly request funding of twice that level later this year.

“I have consummate faith that they can get to $30 billion to $40 billion a year without breaking a sweat,” he added.

The estimated $30 billion to $40 billion of new spending would come on top of the Pentagon’s $496 billion fiscal 2015 operating budget for personnel and contractors and the roughly $58.6 billion in an “Overseas Contingency Operation” fund that is used to finance U.S. war operations in the Middle East.

The OCO, as it is known, has paid for the protracted U.S. military engagement in the Middle East with borrowing that adds to the long-term U.S. debt. If Adams’ projections are correct, then the OCO would total as much as $80 billion to $90 billion in the coming year.

However, House Speaker John Boehner and other congressional Republican leaders are skeptical that Obama’s strategy can work without substantially more resources – including more ground troops.

Iraq War: Predictions Made, and Results

Let’s take a look at previous predictions, when they were made, and how accurate they were, starting with a Christian Science Monitor report Iraq War: Predictions Made, and Results.

Ahead of and shortly after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, a number of officials, including former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz suggested the war could be done on the cheap and that it would largely pay for itself. In October 2003, Rumsfeld told a press conference about President Bush’s request for $21 billion for Iraq and Afghan reconstruction that “the $20 billion the president requested is not intended to cover all of Iraq’s needs. The bulk of the funds for Iraq’s reconstruction will come from Iraqis — from oil revenues, recovered assets, international trade, direct foreign investment, as well as some contributions we’ve already received and hope to receive from the international community.”

In March 2003, Mr. Wolfowitz told Congress that “we’re really dealing with a country that could finance its own reconstruction.” In April 2003, the Pentagon said the war would cost about $2 billion a month, and in July of that year Rumsfeld increased that estimate to $4 billion.

I believe we all know how that turned out.

Lost Cause

On July 24, 2010 I wrote Afghanistan is a “Lost Cause”; Leaked Documents Show Futility of Afghanistan War

The questions on my mind are: How many trillions of dollars do we have to spend, how many lives need to be wasted, and how much longer are we going to be involved in the boondoggle known as Afghanistan?

The total amount of the waste and lives lost is unknown, but we now have an answer to my 2010 question: “how much longer are we going to be involved in the boondoggle known as Afghanistan?“.

The unfortunate answer is “until 2024 at least“.

How much will fighting ISIS it really cost? No one can answer that now, but a safe starting point for discussion is somewhere between 10 and 100 times initial projections.

Time for Self Assessment

In Iraq Splinters Into Pieces, Al Qaeda in Control of Several Cities, Kurds Take Oil City Kirkuk; Thank George Bush and the Neocons; Iraq Before and After I held the Bush Administration largely responsible for this mess.

Sure, president Obama made many mistakes but the initial, most damning mistake was the Iraq invasion and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

In a follow-up post, Assessing the Blame for Iraq: Bush, Obama, McCain, Others; Iraq Sunken Costs I asked for self-assessment.

Time for Self Assessment

I can and do blame Obama for countless things. But Republicans would be very wise to self-assess on Iraq, on nation building, and on warmongering in general.

Instead of self-assessment, warmongers want more war.

Deficit-Hawk Hypocrites

As is always the case, John McCain leads the war rally cry in the Senate.  In the House, Speaker John Boehner Says U.S. may have ‘no choice’ on combat troops.

Not once have these Republican deficit-hawk hypocrites said how they propose to pay for this. Not once has McCain ever placed the blame for ISIS where it belongs.

ISIS a U.S. Creation

ISIS is 100% a US creation. ISIS arose following inane US nation-building policies starting with the absurd belief the “Iraq war would pay for itself.

This self-made mess produced Strange Bedfellows: To Fight ISIS, US Now Supports Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Other Terror Groups.

I concluded “Strange Bedfellows” with a warning “Just remember … To make matters worse, you have to begin somewhere.”

History Lesson

I conclude this post with another history lesson: “No mess is ever so big that it cannot be made worse by throwing more money at it.”

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/10/defense-dept-to-request-30-40-billion.html#LysFD3iEcecQxF6f.99

BEHEADINGS HAPPEN

 

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock

Air Strikes on Isis Not Working; What’s Next?

Isis fighters are closing in on the city of Kobani near the Turkish border. ISIS evades air strikes simply by scattering when planes approach.

The Guardian reports Air Strikes Against Isis are not Working, say Syrian Kurds.

US-led air strikes in northern Syria have failed to interrupt the advance of Islamic State (Isis) fighters closing in on a key city on the Turkish border, raising questions about the western strategy for defeating the jihadi movement.

Almost two weeks after the Pentagon extended its aerial campaign from Iraq to neighbouring Syria in an attempt to take on Isis militants in their desert strongholds, Kurdish fighters said the bombing campaign was having little impact in driving them back.

Isis units have edged to within two kilometres of the centre of Kobani, according to Kurds fighting a rearguard action inside the city. The jihadis, who this weekend generated further outrage with the murder of the British hostage Alan Henning, are simply too numerous to be cowed by the air assault by US fighter jets, the Kurds say.

“Air strikes alone are really not enough to defeat Isis in Kobani,” said Idris Nassan, a senior spokesman for the Kurdish fighters desperately trying to defend the important strategic redoubt from the advancing militants. “They are besieging the city on three sides, and fighter jets simply cannot hit each and every Isis fighter on the ground.”

He said Isis had adapted its tactics to military strikes from the air. “Each time a jet approaches, they leave their open positions, they scatter and hide. What we really need is ground support. We need heavy weapons and ammunition in order to fend them off and defeat them.”

What’s Next?

Most likely the US will drop more and more bombs, with 20% of the bombs finding the right targets, 40% the wrong targets, and the remaining 40% doing nothing. This will be labeled as a “success”.

However, many so-called moderates will get fed up with US action and join ISIS.

Then, after another beheading or two, Obama will send in more ground troops and weapons, but purportedly only for training and aiding moderates who will take the weapons and training in directions contrary to the stated intentions.

My Take

The US and UK  should issue a  travel advisory labeled “beheadings happen”. The advisory should tell everyone, including journalists to get the hell out of the region and if they don’t, they are on their own.

Tax dollars should not go to protect those who voluntarily put themselves in harm’s way. This is not a disparaging comment on journalists, who choose to do what they do. I commend them for wanting to get the story out.

Rather, my comments are a simple practical matter: The US has no obligation to protect anyone who voluntarily puts themselves in harm’s way outside the US.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

 

Bidding Wars Stop; Millennials Leave Their Parents’ Basements, But Not For Homes; Pent Up Demand?

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock

Bidding Wars Stop

With cash-paying investors on full retreat, existing home sales dropped 1.8% in August, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist says that’s a good thing because “first-time buyers have a better chance of purchasing a home now that bidding wars are receding and supply constraints have significantly eased in many parts of the country.”

While I agree it’s a good thing that bidding wars stopped, the fact of the matter is home prices are once again in la-la land, especially for cash-strapped millennials loaded up with student debt, in low-paying jobs.

Pent Up Demand?

Yun states, “As long as solid job growth continues, wages should eventually pick up to steadily improve purchasing power and help fully release the pent-up demand for buying.”

There is arguably a pent-up demand for homes by millennials if wages do catch up, but that assumes millennials have the same value-set and attitudes towards debt as their parents.

In reality, median wages have not gone up much but home prices have. More importantly, attitudes of millennials are not the same as that of their boomer parents.

Millennials Leave Their Parents’ Basements, But Not For Homes

Fortune reports Millennials Finally Leave Their Parents’ Basements.

Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia, put together this graph, which shows that Millennials are finally moving out of their parents’ houses, after years of living at home:

But that’s where the good news ends. Over the past two years, Millennials have been moving away from home, but they don’t actually have enough money, or desire, to form their own households. The homeownership rate among Millennials continues to fall:

The falling homeownership rate and falling “headship rate”—which is the share of Millennials who are the head of a household regardless of whether they own real estate—suggest that this generation is still doubling up with friends or other relatives even if they aren’t living with Mom and Dad.

The one bright spot in the Census data for the youngest workers: between 2012 and 2013, median income for those aged 15 to 24 shot up by 10% from $31,000 per year to roughly $34,000 per year. But this is the first time since 2006 that this age group has seen any increase in income at all, meanwhile the cost of shelter has risen 16% since that time. Income for the older half of the Millennial generation rose just 1.1% between 2012 and 2013.

This poor performance could mean that the housing industry is building too many homes, according to Kolka. This is quite the surprise given that single-family housing construction is still well below pre-crisis and even pre-bubble norms.

Census Data

I commend Fortune for linking to the actual data. Few mainstream media articles do.

For those who wish to take a closer look: Income and Poverty in the United States: 2013, Issued September 2014. Here are a couple of charts and stats that caught my eye.

Real Median Income

Full-Time Employment

Real Medium Income Notes

  • Real median household income for those 15-24 shot up by 10.5% but only from $31,049 to $34,311. That’s not enough to support buying a nice house in most areas. Moreover, the 15-24 demographic has 6.3 million households and typically that age group does not buy houses anyway.
  • Real median household income for those 25-34 (about 20 million households) was only up 1.1% to $52,702. Home prices rose more, making homes less affordable.
  • Real median household income for those 35-44 (about 21 million households) was only op 0.7%, but to a better looking to $64,973.
  • Those aged 45-54 and 55-64 actually saw incomes declines of 0.3% and 3.3% respectively on household populations over 23 million each.

Attitudes, Wages, Home Prices

That data is from 2013, but it’s very safe to conclude nothing much changed in 2014. None of the income data is supportive of more household formation. Wages have not kept up with home prices in the key demographic groups. Things are far worse if you factor in attitudes.

Attitudes – Fed’s Biggest, Most Futile Fight

I have been talking about attitudes for years. For example, please consider Please consider Teenagers Scared Over Plight of their Parents; Attitudes – Bernanke’s Biggest, Most Futile Fight

That 2010 post contains an email from “Nancy Drew” about her daughters, aged 15 and 17 with their friends scared half-to-death about their parents’ financial woes.

Such memories last a long time.

I wrote then and I repeat now … “Those fretting over base money supply and foolishly screaming hyperinflation (or even inflation), simply do not understand the dynamics of debt deflation, nor do they understand how small the increase in base money is compared to debt that will be written off, nor do they understand the role of changing social attitudes towards spending.”

Clash of Generations

On May 30, 2014 I wrote Clash of Generations – Boomers vs. Millennials: Attitude Change Will Disrupt Wall Street and Corporate America

If you haven’t read that, please do. And if you have, I suggest it’s well worth another look.

Pent Up Demand to Sell 

Yun thinks another housing boom is just around the corner. He talks of a pent-up demand to buy.

I suggest there’s a pent-up demand to sell for three reasons:

  1. Aging boomers seeking to downsize
  2. All-cash equity buyers looking to take profits
  3. Some of those who were underwater and hoping to get out will do so if and when they get a chance

Will millennials be able to plug all of that pent-up selling pressure? I think not.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/09/bidding-wars-stop-millennials-leave.html#mZEyqB3h4dGgFCyT.99

Rebels Inflict Heavy Damage on Ukrainian Military Vehicles; Anti-Putin Sanction Alliance Crumbles

Guest Post by Mike Shedlock

Contrary to the unsubstantiated rumor (most likely a complete fabrication) that Ukraine Destroyed a Russian Convoy, the rebels have inflicted serious damage on the Ukrainian military machine. And unlike the zero-proof offered by Ukraine, I have a few videos to show.

Descriptions from Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and reads Ukrainian.

Video 1: Stepanovka

Translated Text from Video URL:

“The defeat of Ukrainian troops in Stepanovka part 1. In Stepanovka Ukrainian army left dozens of pieces of equipment, a large quantity of ammunition, classified material. Locals said that the Ukrainian officers fatten when their soldiers were starving. In the Ukrainian army thrives drunkenness and panic.”

Dreizin Synopsis 1:

Destroyed or abandoned Ukrainian equipment in/near Stepanovka in the south, the first of two Stepanovka videos. The first couple of minutes are very interesting, with lots of destroyed or abandoned equipment and milia carting off captured munitions and rummaging through stuff. Then a funky local man who tells the cameraman about how the Ukrainian officers didn’t take care of their men and darted off leaving their men stranded, how the Ukrainians all drink heavily, how their morale is low and they panic during any kind of battle, and how they don’t want to engage the militia up-close. Also you can see a stack of grad rockets on the ground around 5:50 and then again around 7:20.

But the most memorable quote is from around 7:18 to 7:52, as follows …

“In the Stepanovka area, guys are jumping to go into battle, to kill the enemy even with bare hands.  In particular, in the assault units that captured Stepanovka, there are very many volunteers from Semyonovka [a town near Slaviansk that was largely destroyed by Ukrainian shelling], who are just burning with a thirst for vengeance for the acts of genocide that the fascists waged there.  I think that for Ukrainian soldiers, it’s really best not to run into these guys. This is the mindset the Ukrainian army is fighting.”

Video 2: Stepanovka

Translated text from the video URL “In Stepanovka Ukrainian army left dozens of pieces of equipment, a large quantity of ammunition, classified material. Showing the shocking footage of the deceased in the fire department of a Ukrainian paratroopers.”

Dreizin Synopsis 2:

Destroyed or abandoned Ukrainian equipment near Stepanovka in the south, the second of two Stepanovka videos. This video is more interesting, much more equipment here, best part starts around 2:50.

Overall, for both (1) and (2), the narrator is describing the abandoned weapons, the tactical situation, and the human situation. In part (2) from 3:09-3:21, the narrator says that a militia burial party has already been to that particular spot, and along with a priest has taken the remains of 40 Ukrainians killed there and buried them nearby.

Video 3: Lugansk

Dreizin says “Warning! This may kill your appetite” Video URO description says “Consumed column Lviv airmobile brigade APU by the people’s militia”.

Dreizin Synopsis 3:

Dreizin describes this as the remains of a convoy of Ukraine’s 95th Airmobile Brigade. I question the recentness of the video based on rotting flesh.

Video 4: Marinovka

Video URL Customs post with Russia “Marinovka” August 14, 2014

Dreizin Synopsis 4:

These militiamen are touring the captured border post of Marinovka, one of the points that plugs the western flank of the new cauldron in the south.  They are obviously really happy, and the tall guy with the beard and mustache even finds the occasion to shout out his own paraphrase of an excerpt from Pushkin’s “Ruslan i Liudmila” at around 0:22-0:25 (roughly translated as “It now smells like Russia here”.)

Anti-Putin Sanction Alliance Crumbles

As the war rages on, and sanctions mount, support for those sanctions is now being reconsidered. Zero Hedge provides a nice synopsis in “Anti-Putin” Alliance Fraying: Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Czech Republic Urge End To Russian Sanctions

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com