Saker – The Burning Platform

Evidence Continues to Emerge #MH17 Is a False Flag Operation

Via The Vineyard of the Saker

Translated by Gleb Bazov
Part I of Dissecting the Evidence————————–

FINAL – Part I: Emerging Evidence Points to #MH17 Being a Ukrainian False Flag

Translated by Gleb Bazov
Combined Sources

July 17, 2014 – Examination of Available Evidence Manufactured by Ukraine

Video: BUSTED! Ukraine Caught Trying to ‘Frame Russia’ for Shooting Down Malaysia Flight MH17!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28MrASx-RiM

July 17, 2014 – Michael McFaul Speaks

Volunteer militia do not have the training to shoot sophisticated antiaircraft weapons

— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) July 17, 2014

July 17, 2014 – “Proof of Rebel Responsibility” Video Faked & Uploaded 1 Day Earlier

Video Originally Created and First Uploaded: July 16, 2014, 19:10:24

Vide Re-Uploaded to YouTube for Second Time: July 18, 2014 00:09:00

Original Source: Gmorder LiveJournal

The Shooting-Down of Boeing Was Planned By Ukies

Video: “Intercepts” Between Militia Commanders Manufactured by Ukrainians

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwtxBA1m9x8

On the video you can see a mix-up in timings, so people started digging, and voila – here is the first video (identical to the video now being offered as proof of the involvement of Militia): RGHost Download

At 1:09 the time of 17:32 froze

Looks like SBU [Ukrainian Security Service] operatives were in a hurry.

However, that is not all of it, by far.

Let’s look at the creation date of the video: 2014-07-16 19:10:24

The creation date cannot be changed in any manner, other than by re-creating and re-uploading the video at a future date.

Let’s look at the re-upload date: 2014-07-18 00:09:00

If this is not proof, then I have no idea what would count as proof.

NOTE: Adding or subtracting the suggested 14 hours, 10 hours or 4 hours difference (or any combination thereof) due to, respectively, California or UTC local time, from either of the timings does not fix the problem.

July 17, 2014 – CNN Claims Storm Diverted MH17’s Course, But Shown To Be False

@gbazov @GrayCardinal1 No storm. http://t.co/NpQbtGMEHF

— Rosa Luxembourgeoise (@RosaLuxembourge) July 17, 2014

July 17, 2014 – The Timing of News Indicates a False-Flag Operation by Ukraine

Original Source: Anatolii Sharii FaceBook – via Valentina Lisitsa (@ValLisitsa)

LATEST NEWS:

17:49 – A Source: A passanger aircraft was shot down in the Donetsk region

17:26 – Ukrainian SNBO [National Security Council] claims that the rebels have equipment that can shoot down planes at high elevations

17:23 – UEFA split Russian and Ukrainian soccer clubs in European Cups.

17:12 – Poroshenko is chairing a meeting of Ukrainian SNBO.

.@gbazov this snapshot speaks volumes. Look at a timing of the announcement! via @anatoliisharii pic.twitter.com/n8AN3kHBUQ — Valentina Lisitsa (@ValLisitsa) July 17, 2014
FINAL – Part II: Evidence Continues to Emerge #MH17 Is a False Flag Operation

Key Information in Reverse Chronological Order

#15 – Dissecting the Fake Intercept Disseminated by SBU (Ukrainian Security Service)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5E8kDo2n6g

Note: Half of the Post Translated; The Remaining Half is Speculative
Complete Original of the Post (in Russian) Can Be Found at Eugene-DF LiveJournal

In the disseminated intercept, the place from which the missile was allegedly launched is clearly indicated: the checkpoint at the settlement of Chernukhino.

Pay close attention at the Alleged Map of the MH17 Catastrophe.

As you can see, the distance from the point of launch to the point of the fall is 37 kilometres. At the same time, the elevation of the plane was 10-11 kilometres. For the Russian BUK M2 this distance is, in fact, achievable (although with a very important caveat discussed below).

However, Ukraine does not, and cannot, have modern digital high-tech Anti-Aircraft systems in its arsenal. What it does have, at best, is the older version BUK M1. The system itself is not too bad, and could even fit the stated distance. Except for the caveat that was mentioned.

The thing is that most short to medium range Anti-Aircraft systems work extremely poorly in a “pursuit” mode. There are a number of reasons for this, and I do not intend to belabor the point, but you can take it as an axiom that when the launch is made in “pursuit” of the target, the maximum distance of the launch that successfully hits the target is at least half of the advertised maximum distance (in reality, it even worse, but let’s leave aside the sad part). Accordingly, the real distance of a “pursuit” launch for BUK M1 is 16 kilometres. What’s more, the last 3 kilometres are purely “God willing” and “without guarantees.”

And, so, we have the background. Let’s see how the picture unfolds:

The launch is alleged to have been made from Chernukhino. The maximum distance of the launch is 16 kilometres. The aircraft fell between Snezhnoye and Torez. That’s 37 kilometres, which is 20 kilometres more than the maximum possible point at which the plain could have been hit. You know, even a plane with turned-off engines can’t glide like that. But the trouble is that the aircraft was not whole.

According to the pattern of the spread of fuselage fragments and bodies, the plane was ruptured practically with the first shot. Here it must be mentioned that the high-explosive/fragmentation warhead of the rocket has a mass of approximately 50 kilograms (by the way, Ukrainians have an outdated modification, which is only 40 kilograms).

Overall, that’s not too little; however, it must be understood that it detonates not when it sticks into an airplane, but when it is still at a certain, and fairly significant distance. Moreover, the main strike factor is not the blast wave, but far more significantly – the stream of fragments. These fragments are previously prepared rods (and in the earlier versions – little cubes, if I recall correctly). And yes, for a jet fighter, that, in itself, is more than sufficient.

However, here we are dealing with a huge airliner. Yes, one rocket will rip the casing, cause depressurization, and will kill a lot of passengers. But it will not break up the airliner into pieces. Given certain conditions, the pilots may even be able to land it. And, in fact, there have been precedents (to be provided in future posts). For example – the very same An-28, which is alleged to have been the first victim of a BUK system; even though it was done for, but the crew was able to successfully catapult out. Which, in some way, symbolizes. An An-28, by the way, is far smaller than a Boeing.

Nevertheless, this has relation to the next part of our analysis. For now, let’s accept as a fact the break-up of the aircraft in the air, at a significant height (which is, in essence, what was observed. Allow me to remind you: “fragments spread over a radius of 15 kilometres.” The key here is that this means the following: the aircraft (or, more precisely, the core of the aircraft) fell literally at the point where the rocket impacted it. Clarifying: as soon as the aircraft turned into a host of fragments of different mass, the separation of these fragments began due to air resistance and the difference in inertia. The densest fragment flew a further 3-6 kilometres, falling more and more steeply. The lightest – spread out and, due to gliding and air currents, fell somewhere within a 10 kilometre radius. The medium ones (primarily pieces of casing with high sail-effect and the victims’ bodies) – fell almost vertically.

In other words, the rocket caught up to the plane no closer than 25 kilometres away from Chernukhino. Which is absolutely impossible for a BUK system.

By the way, we can’t overlook the fact that, at maximum distances, BUK can be used only provided there is support from an external radar installation for location and guiding purposes. In other words, even if a rockets flies far, BUK’s mobile radar does not cover its entire distance.

Accordingly, if SBU’s video above is not fake, then, to our surprise, we discover that it was literally impossible for the aircraft to be shot down by the rebel’s BUK. By the way, what exactly this BUK was doing in Chernukhino with the Cossacks is pretty much inexplicable. It is 60 kilometres whether you go to Donetsk or to Lugansk from there, and this BUK would be unable to protect the skies over either of the key cities. Nor are there any hostilities in the area. It’s also strange for the Militia to expect enemy planes there – it’s not like the pilots are their own enemies to make such detours over the enemy’s territory, is it? Well, all right. As I already stated, let’s accept, for the moment, that the intercept is not fake.

And that is what is so strange here: SBU literally offers evidence that proves that that the Militia had no part in the shooting down of the Boeing! The fact that they blame themselves in the recording is quite understandable. Unlike the fascists, they have a conscience, which takes its toll until you are sure it was not you who did it.

Ok. But somebody did, in fact, shoot down the plane?

Of course it was shot down. And here we have another question: what if this recording is a falsification through and through? Then it had to have been prepared somehow? And then disseminated?

That’s when smoke starts to clear, and mirrors – to break.

That’s the problem with tricks.

#14 – An Industry Outlet Confirms Carlos (@spainbuca) as ATC at Borispol Airport in Kiev

Original: EturboNews (ETN Global Travel Industry News) – July 17, 2014

ETN received information from an air traffic controller in Kiev on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.

This Kiev air traffic controller is a citizen of Spain and was working in the Ukraine. He was taken off duty as a civil air-traffic controller along with other foreigners immediately after a Malaysia Airlines passenger aircraft was shot down over the Eastern Ukraine killing 295 passengers and crew on board.

The air traffic controller suggested in a private evaluation and basing it on military sources in Kiev, that the Ukrainian military was behind this shoot down. Radar records were immediately confiscated after it became clear a passenger jet was shot down.

Military air traffic controllers in internal communication acknowledged the military was involved, and some military chatter said they did not know where the order to shoot down the plane originated from.

Obviously it happened after a series of errors, since the very same plane was escorted by two Ukrainian fighter jets until 3 minutes before it disappeared from radar.

Radar screen shots also show an unexplained change of course of the Malaysian Boeing. The change of course took the aircraft directly over the Eastern Ukraine conflict region.

Some tweets received suggest this may have been a secret military uprising against the current Ukrainian president under the direction of formerly-jailed Prime Minister Timoshenko.

According to other rumors, the black box for this crashed Malaysian Airlines flight was taken by Donetsk separatists. A spokesperson for the rebel group said this black box would be sent to the Interstate Aviation Committee headquartered in Moscow.

The First Deputy Prime Minister of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk, Andrew Purgin, stated that the flight recorders of the crashed aircraft will be transferred to Moscow for examination.

Sources say the Rebel group leadership hopes this would confirm the Ukrainian military actually shot down this aircraft. This was reported by the news agency Interfax-Ukraine.

ETN statement: The information in this article is independently confirmed and based on the statement of one airline controller and other tweets received.

#13 – A Brief Well-Made Presentation Regarding Ukraine’s Manufactured Evidence

Video: Paul J. Watson – “Evidence to Frame Russia For MH17 Shoot Down Fabricated?”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMgIpC-bCfQ

#12 – Analysis from an Aerodynamics/Physics Standpoint – Ukrainian Army Responsible

RESUME OF ANALYSIS: What all this means is that if a BUK rocket was launched from the territory controlled by the Militia, the Boeing would have fallen much further to the south-east – i.e. will into the Russian territory. Otherwise, there would have been not time to detect the aircraft, perform electronic capture and launch the rocket. If this was a BUK, and not a jet fighter, then it is most likely that the launch was made from the territory controlled by the Ukrainian army, and the rocket was sent “chasing after” the airplane.

Original: 4yma3iy LiveJournal

I am not an aerodynamics specialist. I am a radioelectronics expert. Nevertheless, I specialize in aviation. If there are aerodynamics specialists here, please critique away.

Initial Data: the plane’s elevation is 10,000 metres, speed is 900 km/h (or 250 m/s).

Judging from the photos from the site of the crash, where all the pieces lie together in one place, it appears that the plane fell as a whole (i.e. some fragments may have broken off, but the fuselage remained intact). So, the aircraft well “as one piece” – i.e. it did not break apart in the air.

Accordingly, it must be considered as one body, the speed of which has a very large dependence on air resistance, particularly given the design features and its intended use.

The time of a body’s free fall:

T = sqrt(2h/g)

Thus, from a height of 10,000 metres, a body will fall:

T = sqrt(2*10000/9.8) = 45 second – HOWEVER! – this applies only in vacuum.

At the same time, the downward velocity when falling from this height is:

V = sqrt(2gh)

This speed will equal 442 m/s – HOWEVER! – this, once again, applies only in vacuum.

In real-life conditions a fall happens with a certain maximum speed, at which the force of air resistance becomes equal to the force of gravity. For a person’s body, for instance, this speed is equal to 40 m/s. For a bullet, this speed is approximately 50 m/s (depending on form and mass). Given the plane’s mass and its enormous size, let’s take this speed to be 40 m/s.

Accordingly, the plane would have been falling approximately 250 second – let’s round it off to 4 minutes, which is quite close to what happened.

Let’s accept that the reduction of horizontal speed also occurs pursuant to a linear equation with certain acceleration.

The vector of the force of front air resistance is directed against the speed of movement, and its magnitude is proportional to characteristic area S, density of the environment ρ, and speed V squared:

V=C((P*V^2)/2)*S

For the aerodynamically well-designed body of an aircraft, Cx < 0.3

Let’s calculate the force of air resistance at the speed of 250 m/s

0.3*1.26*250*250/2*50=590кН

The mass of Boeing 777 = 300 ton (in equipped state)

It means that horizontal deceleration due to air resistance would be 590/300 = 2 m/s^2 – just as I suspected (however, this is at the maximum speed).

Now, let’s take our favourite highschool equation:

X=(V1^2-V0^2)/2a

Given the nonlinear nature of deceleration, divide it in half – and we get 31 kilometres.

Let’s consider the strike distance of the rocket. Maximum strike distance of AGM-86 ALSM rocket:
At the height of 30 m – 20 km
At the height of 6,000 m – 26 km
The chance of a successful strike: 0.6 – 0.8

This distance should not be mistaken for the distance of detection.

Map: Yellow Pin to the West = Estimated Rocket Launch Location; Yellow Pin To the East = Crash Site

What all this means is that if a BUK rocket was launched from the territory controlled by the Militia, the Boeing would have fallen much further to the south-east – i.e. will into the Russian territory. Otherwise, there would have been not time to detect the aircraft, perform electronic capture and launch the rocket.

If this was a BUK, and not a jet fighter, then it is most likely that the launch was made from the territory controlled by the Ukrainian army, and the rocket was sent “chasing after” the airplane.

#11 – Changing MH17 Route From July 14, 2014 to July 17, 2014

Screenshots of Flight Paths of MH17 for July 14-17, 2014

#10 – Eyewitness Recounts a Fighter Jet and 3 Explosions When MH17 Was Shot Down

Audio Recording Link: Cassad Net

Transcript of the Eyewitness Phone CallI

have a single sheet of paper that fell from the plane, with fresh blood – you can see it. Baggage also fell, further, in the area of the Petropavlovka settlement – there are fragments there. There is a group in VKontakte that already posted photos with pieces from the Boeing. Also, beyond Rassypnoye, near Terrikon, there are corpses. There were people there, and they saw it all.

I saw, personally, that there were 3 explosions. The first, the second and the third. So, after the first explosions I went up on the roof and saw that a plane was falling – it was already almost at the ground. There was an explosion, a black cloud, and two parachutists were descending – one was descending on his parachute on the wing. The second was flying down very fast – like a stone. And that is what I saw.

However, at that very same moment, a jet fighter was departing in the direction of Debaltsevo. It was over Rassypnoye and was flying toward Debaltsevo. How I understood it.

#9 – 11:53-12:40 – July 18, 2014 – Information Regarding the Boeing from Igor Strelkov

– regarding Boeing 777, Flight MH17:

Igor Strelkov: According to the information received from the people who collected the corpses, a large number of the corpses are “not fresh” – these are people who died a few days ago. I cannot vouch for complete accuracy of this information – of course, we will have to wait for conclusions from forensic specialists.

– “Somebody of course must have been piloting this plane, which, to boot, would be impossible to leave. The theory that the plane was full of dead people is, of course, breathtaking; however, it does not seem to make sense.”

Igor Strelkov: First of all, not all the people in the plane were dead prior to the fall.

Second, a large quantity of medication, including blood serum and so forth, was found in the airplane, which is not characteristic of a regular airliner. It looks like there was some kind of special medical cargo on board.

Third, I do not insist on anything (for now). It’s just that only moments ago I spoke with two individuals who personally gathered the corpses after the crash (both of them are from Shakhtersk and arrived at the scene less than half an hour after the catastrophe). I am writing exactly what they told me. They emphasized that a large number of the corpses were “completely bloodless” – it’s as if their blood clotted long before the catastrophe. They also remarked that there was an overwhelming putrid corpse stench, which was also noted by many locals – a smell like that could not have formed in half an hour in any weather, let alone in the cloudy, temperate weather we had yesterday.

Fourth, while I am usually very suspicious of any “conspiracy theories” myself, but the 18 of our fighters that were poisoned with chemical weapons at their positions in Semyonovka, the executions of the militiamen’s family members and all other “small joys of Ukie patriots” have convinced me that the Ukrainian government is capable of any villainy.

The pilots were, of course, perfectly alive – the entire cabin (and the front part is well preserved) was literally bathed in their blood.

#8 – Ukrainian Military Reports to Poroshenko That Rebels Have Not Captured any BUKs

According to Vitaliy Yarema, in an interview to Ukrainskaya Pravda, military officials reported to President Poroshenko immediately after the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777, Flight MH17, that the rebels have not captured any BUK systems from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is further confirmed in a statement by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, published on June 30, 2014.

Further Information: “Militias do not have Ukrainian Buk missile system – Ukraine general prosecutor”

KIEV, July 18. /ITAR-TASS/. Militias in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics do not have Ukrainian air defense missile systems Buk and S-300 at their disposal, Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Vitaly Yarema told Ukrainian Pravda newspaper on Friday.

“After the passenger airliner was downed, the military reported to the president that terrorists do not have our air defense missile systems Buk and S-300,” the general prosecutor said. “These weapons were not seized,” he added.

Ukrainian Interior Minister Anton Gerashchenko said on July 17 that the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 airliner had been downed by an air defense missile system Buk.

The Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 airliner on the way from the Dutch city of Amsterdam to the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur crashed in Ukraine on Thursday. All 298 people abroad the airliner died in the crash.

#7 – Eyewitness States Two Planes Following MH17, One Of the Craft Shot Down Boeing

Video: Father of Eyewitness Tells of the Crash of Boeing MH17 Over Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPcbFJSGk7E

Transcript of the Video

Narrator: Who shot it down? Today it was shot down, on [July] 17th.

Narrator: Continuing. The village of Grabovo. How was it? What did you son tell you?

Father of Eyewitness: Well, they were sitting there, on a hill. And, from behind the clouds … two airplanes were flying … one of the came out from behind the clouds.

Narrator: Military planes emerged?

Father of Eyewitness: Well, he does not understand. Then, with one shot, they shot down the second. And that’s it. The second plane, he says – with one shot. There was one shot and that’s it.

Narrator: And the one that was shot down was the civilian one? …

Father of Eyewitness: And two … one fell down, he says, and the second too … I did not bring my phone here, so I can’t call him.

[in the background] Ah, he saw a jet fighter … Of course …

Narrator: The village of Grabovo, in the Shakhtersk district. One the approaches to Grabovo, it fell. Keep looking for remains. Everything is burning. Aluminum has melted. All the casing.

#6 – Analysis from Anatolii Sharii

Video: The Tragedy of Boeing 777

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzcKcyHG_CY

Transcript of the Video

If we try to forget the shock that I, along with my beloved Netherlands, are currently experiencing over this tragedy, and try to make sense of this situation unemotionally, as much as it can be possible, then the very first steps of the analysis of the fate of this flight inspire very terrifying, saddening thoughts.

A Ukrainian journalist, Olga Bondarenko, identified this information and the two of us, as we are together at the moment, came to certain conclusions. The following is provided to you without commentary.

[the following is screen text]

The flight path for July 15, 2014

The flight path for July 16, 2014

How it flew on July 17, 2014

Here is where it was shot down

Let us overlay the flight path onto the map of Ukraine

This is the regular flight path

The flight path on July 17, 2014

The deviation from the regular flight path

An unidentified flying object enters the area where they should be no aircraft

Who shot down the Boeing?

condolences …

#5 – Video Material From the Site of MH17 Crash via LifeNews

Video: Exclusive Footage from the Site of Boeing’s Crash

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfsV7ZcF2oI

#4 – Possible Alternative Video of MH17, Right Wing on Fire (via Vaughan Fomularo)

UPDATE: Dann Peroni (@roamer43) The video “#4 – Possible Alternative Video of MH17, Right Wing on Fire (via Vaughan Fomularo)” shows a clear blue sky, while in all other videos showing the crash site the sky is overcast!

Video: Malaysian Airlines plane being shot down LIVE! (July 17 2014)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKIlueJg4cA

#3 – Examining the Tickets and the Passports of Passengers of Flight MH17

Passports are hole-punched – this is what is done to passports when they are cancelled.

@McFaul @gbazov The date on the ticket? Holes on the passport? What is it? pic.twitter.com/RxJBeob9dy

— Татьяна Кузьмина (@nika4888) July 18, 2014

#2 – Comparing the Form of the Wing in the Video with the Wings of Boeing

@gbazov clearly the wings of the plane in the video are not the ones of a Malaysian Boeing 777 pic.twitter.com/oH9L4WjFqF — Crimea&East (@IndependentKrym) July 18, 2014

#1 – Video Purporting to be that of MH17 is Actually the Video of An-26 Shot Down Earlier

#FLASH #IMPORTANT – THIS —> https://t.co/e0FiVFdAM2 IS NOT #MH17, it’s most likely the An-26 (sound, elevation, form of the wing). PLZ RT. — Gleb Bazov (@gbazov) July 18, 2014

KIEV NAZIS ARE LOSING – NEEDED A FALSE FLAG TO GET NATO SUPPORT

Via The Vineyard of the Saker

Ukraine SITREP July 17th, 15:55 UTC/Zulu: the complete failure of Poroshenko’s “surprise” (UPDATED)

I will begin this SITREP by re-posting the video of the interview made by Ukrainian TV by phone with a solider of the Ukie forces in the so-called “southern cauldron”. Please make sure to press on the ‘cc’ button to get the English subtitles:

Speaking of videos, the I wanted to point out that the video I posted yesterday of what appeared to be Grad systems firing a Ukie forces from inside Russia included the voice of the person filming it who was saying “this is how much fun it is in the city of Gukovo – the Grads are firing” so unless this is all a fancy setup, it appears that it was shot from inside Russia.

This morning Russian TV has shown footage of wounded Ukie soldiers who sought refuge in Russia and who were dispatched to various regional hospitals. So even though the western corporate media and politicians and, of course, the junta in Kiev are remaining completely silent about all this, there is overwhelming evidence that the Ukie forces in the southern cauldron were completely routed resulting in a collapse of the Ukie battle plan.

Poroshenko’s surprise

Do you remember how Poroshenko promised that if the Resistance did not surrender at the end of his truce he would go to ‘plan B’ which would be a big “surprise” for the Resistance? Well, what exactly his surprise plan was supposed to be is now obvious: the Ukies used the week of the so-called ‘truce’ to concentrate practically the entire Ukrainian military along the perimeter of the Resistance frontlines. Then, the Ukies attacked with an overwhelming superiority in numbers in Luganks and Donetsk. The plan was clearly to draw as many Resistance forces away from the southern part of the combat area and to then swiftly move Ukie forces towards the east and northeast along the Russian border to basically surround the Resistance forces and cut them off from their resupply lines from Russia. How in the world the Ukies seriously believed that the Russian GRU would ever fall for that is, frankly, beyond me. I have no facts to back the following assertion up, but having a pretty good idea of how the GRU works, I am absolutely certain that a) the GRU has agents on all levels of the Ukie hierarchy b) that the GRU has recon units everywhere in the combat zone c) that the 6th GRU directorate intercepts every single electronic communication in the eastern Ukraine d) that Russia is using its airborne and space assets to monitor every inch of Banderastan and finally e) that Strelkov and Borodai are working 24/7 with GRU liaison groups. What I saying is that it was pure folly to expect that the planned envelopment movement right along the Russian border would ever take the Resistance forces by surprise. And, of course, it didn’t.

Putin’s “surge”

During the past two weeks or so there were more and more signs that the Resistance forces were suddenly ‘finding’ more and more military equipment, more and more volunteers were coming across the border and that even some very heavy equipment began to literally pop-up ‘here and there’. Of course, the Resistance declared that all these were trophies taken from the Ukies, but never gave any specifics. One more thing also “surged” from Russia: money. In fact, so much money appeared “out of nowhere” that Strelkov and Borodai could announce that they were pay pretty good salaries to those who would join the Resistance forces. The effect was apparently sufficient to delay, and possibly even cancel, the idea of declaring a full mobilization and conscription. It is likely that while the junta and its western allies did have a general sense that these accursed Russkies were up to no good, they probably did not realize the magnitude of this change the main consequence of which was the Strelkov apparently had enough men and resources to repel and attack in both Lugansk and Donetsk while at the same time trapping and destroying the “surprise” force the Ukies sent to envelop the Resistance.

Strelkov’s own surge

But this is not the full story yet. Something else of immense importance happened during the past couple of weeks. There is more and more evidence that a certain number of key people in the Donetsk-Lugansk area were conducting very discrete negotiations with the junta in Kiev to strike some kind of deal. The two figures most cited in this context are the oligarch Rinat Akhmetov (who more or less owned all of Donetsk) and the Mayor of Donetsk Alexander Lukianenko. A third figure possibly implicated to some degree in these behind the scenes negotiations was the chief of Novorussian Security Service and commander of the famous Vostok Battalion Alexander Khodakovsky, though his role, assuming there was one, was either minor or non-committal, as we soon shall see. Finally, there is some pretty good evidence that a toxic mix of Russian oligarchs and Kremlin insiders (those I call the “Atlantic integrationists”) were also in the loop. What their final plan really was we will probably never know (after all, they were busy negotiating it), but some kind of semi-surrender of the Donbass was clearly its key feature. So we could roughly identify two camps on the Russian side:

a) Russian oligarchs, some Kremlin “Atlantic Integrationists”, the Mayor of Donetsk, Khodakovsky and a few Russian intellectuals such as Kurginian.
b) Russian security services, the Kremlin “Eurasian Sovereignists”, Borodai and Strelkov plus a few Russian intellectuals such as Glaziev.

All the plans of the first group completely collapsed when Strelkov, in a surprise move for everybody, suddenly withdrew from Slaviansk and appeared in Donetsk with a large contingent of heavily armed fighters. The Mayor Lukianenko feld to Kiev, Kurginian was given a most hostile “reception” and was almost arrested, as for Khodakovsky, he lost his position of Chief of Security but retained his position as commander of the Vostok battalion. As for the oligarchs in Moscow, they could only watch in abject disgust how Strelkov, Borodai and Antiufeev (respectively in charge of military, political and state security affairs) – all men with strong connection to the Russian secret services – were giving a joint press conference in Donetsk. Clearly, the Russian secret services and Putin’s “Eurasian Sovereignists” have won again: the plans for a surrender were scrapped and those in favor of such plans either replaced or demoted. All the Novorussian forces were brought under a single command (Strelkov) which restored the sacro-saint principle of Russian warfare “единоначалие” or “unity of command”. By the time Poroshenko sprung his “surprise” Strelkov and Putin were fine ready.

The Ukie collapseI am still unsure about many details, but at this point in time, the tally seems to be as follows: the forces sent to the southern cauldron have been practically wiped out, possibly with some artillery support from across the Russian border. A column of Ukie forces made it to the Lugansk airport, but with huge losses and with no further plan other than to resist as long as possible. For all practical purpose, this force is “out” in an operational sense (even though its mere presence remains a threat to the Resistance which will have to allocate enough forces to contain it). I am most unclear about what exactly happened to the Ukie force which attacked Donetsk. My understanding is that it fought itself into a stalemate against the Resistance and withdrew to regroup and reorganize. So with the exception of the forces sent to the “southern cauldron” the Ukies did okay tactically, but on an operational level the Poroshenko surprise resulted in a complete failure.

The predictable reaction in Kiev and Washington

Though neither Kiev or Washington have admitted their latest defeat, in fact they did not even mention it by a single word, both capitals reacted by doing what they do best: the junta lashed out at the civilian population and engaged in a vicious and systematic artillery strikes campaign against civilian neighborhoods while the USA announced yet a new round of sanctions against Russia. As for the European “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies” (to use the words of Boris Johnson, Mayor of London), after spending a week saying that they were opposed to sanctions, they showed their usual prostitution, obeyed Uncle Sam’s command and also adopted a package of sanctions. When asked about these latest sanctions Putin could not dismiss his contempt for the US Administration:

As for sanctions, they usually have a boomerang effect, and without a doubt will force US-Russian relations into a corner. This is a serious blow to our relationship. And it undermines the long term security interests of the US State and its people. It is regrettable that our partners have chosen to impose new sanctions, but Russia will not close doors to negotiations. We’re open to finding ways out of this situation. I really hope that common sense and the willingness to resolve all issues through peaceful diplomatic means will prevail.
The measures taken by the US administration towards Russia, in my view, contradict the national interests of the United States. This means that, for example, large companies wanting to work in Russia after facing certain restrictions will lose their competitiveness compared with other global energy companies. We gave an opportunity for the largest US company to work in the Arctic shelf. So what, the States does not want it to work there? They are hurting their biggest energy companies. And for what? In order to, after making one mistake, insist on making another? This is, at very least, an unprofessional approach. Sooner or later, such methods of solving international problems will have to change, but the damages will have to be written-off as losses for those doing it. I would like to say that unfortunately, those who plan foreign policy actions in the United States (this is not a recent observation but one pertaining to the last 10-15 years) are conducting an aggressive foreign policy and, in my view, a rather unprofessional one, because whatever they do, there are problems everywhere. Just look: there are problems in Afghanistan; Iraq is falling apart; Libya is falling apart. If General el-Sisi had not taken control in Egypt, Egypt would probably be in turmoil now as well. In Africa, there are problems in many countries. They touched Ukraine, and there are problems there as well.

So while Putin did not overtly call the Obama Administration stupid, he did call it incompetent and unprofessional. The Russian Foreign Ministry also chimed in and added that the USA had imposed new sanctions because:

The events in Ukraine have not developed the way Washington scripted them. The outrageous and groundless desire to blame Russia for the civil war in a neighboring country, which was caused by a deep internal crisis and already resulted in the loss of many lives, proves that the US and its clients in Kiev have failed to pacify the wide public dissent. We’ve said on many occasions that speaking the language of sanctions to Russia is pointless, regardless of their scale. This path won’t lead to any positive outcome. Those who believe in their own exceptionalism and claim the right to dictate their will to the world will be deeply disappointed. If Washington intends to ruin the Russian-American relations, it’s on their conscience, we won’t tolerate blackmail and reserve the right to retaliate.

I personally have no hope at all that all these appeals to common sense and even basic self-interest will have any impact on the US elites which have basically forgotten the subtle art of negotiations and who apparently sincerely believe that they can bully anybody into submission. The problem is that Russia is not in the least afraid of the US or, even less so, of the EU.

Right now, the sanctions are “kinda” working. Some Russian companies have had their stock go down and there are some signs of capital flight – but this is mostly speculative capital. Capital invested in Russia has not – and, really, cannot – move out. Sure, the Hrivna is kept artificially high by western banks, but for how long can they sustain this worthless currency? Even more ridiculously, Standard & Poors managed to, I kid you not, upgrade Ukraine’s credit rating from “negative” to “stable” because of the $17 billion bailout loan from the IMF. Yes, that’s right. There are some folks out there making a terrific salary saying that when a bankrupt country engaged in a civil war get a loan its credit rating becomes better, not worse, if even the borrowed money is used exclusively to fund that civil war and pay the Ukie oligarchs for their “contribution” to the war effort. Amazing…

The Russian response

During his tour of Latin America Putin spoke with the leaders of countries which represent more than half of the population of the planet. He signed a nuclear deal with Argentina, military contracts with Brazil, agreed to forgive 90% of the Cuban debt to Russia and re-open the Lourdes intelligence center on Cuba. So much for “isolating” Russia. But even more importantly is that the BRICS countries, following the example of Chavez’ ALBA bank, agreed to created a common development bank with the equivalent 100 billion dollars in capital. To put things simply, the BRICS are gradually off-loading the dollar reserves while creating their own version of the IMF, but this time with real development, not imperialism, as a goal. The beautiful photo of the 5 BRICS leaders all joining hands and grinning together was a clear message to Obama: you cannot isolate Russia or, for that matter, any of us.

Internally, Russia needs to actively pursue the program of “sovereignization” which Putin mentioned many time while keeping up the struggle with the “Russian 5th column” (also Putin’s choice of words). Sovereignization requires a major systemic restructuring of the Russian economy and industry: more money must be made available at much lower interest rates than now, companies should be, how shall I put it, “convincingly encouraged” to repatriate their money from foreign and off-shore accounts (this can be done by, for example, only allowing companies incorporated in Russia to bid for government contracts), foreign non-western investment must be further encouraged (especially from China) and the Russian industry needs to be actively developed and diversified and the military industry must be made self-sufficient. The goal is not some kind of Russia version of juche, but the gradual disentanglement of the Russian economy from the western (primarily European) one. Asia, Latin America, India, Africa – these are the partners and friends Russia is seeking to develop.

As for the Russian 5th column, it is not so much the overt pseudo-dissidents a la Nemtsov or Kasparov, but some oligarchs and their agents inside the Kremlin whom I call the “Atlantic Integrationists” (Medvedev, of course, but also a good chunk of the current Russian government and Kremlin advisers). The good news on this front is that the US policies towards Russia and the war in the Ukraine are giving Putin and the Russian secret services a perfect opportunity to turn the public opinion against these circles which, in turns, allows Putin to reduce their numbers and influence. Still, while these circles do not currently have the means to take action against him, they still hate Putin who would be well advised to always keep at least an eye over his shoulder as there are still a lot of traitors (what else should they be called?) in the Russian elites. These are, for example, the forces behind the current anti-Strelkov campaign lead by Kurginian and the anti-Putin campaign lead by pseudo-patriots who accuse him of having “sold out Novorussia”. Now that the military tide has been turned, at least provisionally, these pseudo-patriots are taking a time off to recover from the shock and define a new Putin-bashing strategy, but they will be back at it very soon, of that we can be certain. Several well-informed observers have indicated that the next bashing campaign will probably be directed at Strelkov who, in the eyes of these pseudo-patriots, is what the French call an “empêcheur de tourner en rond” which can be very loosely translated as “party pooper“, “spoilsport“, or “killjoy“: he is the man who crashed their behind-the-scenes attempts to make a deal with Akhmetov and the Kiev junta, he is the man with all the power in Novorussia, and he is the man who closely works with their worst enemy: the Russian secret services. His current popularity makes him untouchable at the moment, Kurginian completely failed in his attempts to smear him, but a war is the ideal setting to find a reason to smear a figure like Strelkov and they will definitely come up with something to get to him and, through him, to Putin.

A provisional conclusion of sorts

Where do we go from here?

First, we should not let the recent victories overwhelm us with a premature sense of optimism: this war is very far from over. For one thing it is pretty clear that the Resistance does not currently have the means to go on the counter-offensive and free the rest of Novorussia from Nazi occupation. Second, we can be darn sure that the US/NATO will dramatically increase their military, political and economic support for the junta in Kiev. I would not be in the least surprised if the US decided to send a group of retired US generals to replace the stupid Ukie generals who designed and implemented Poroshenko’s “surprise” plan. Also, the Ukies might regroup and launch another attack, this time (correctly) concentrated on either Donetsk or Lugansk (probably the former). So again, this is very far from being over, in particular because history shows that civil wars are not ended by a peace treaty, but by the victory of one side over another.

Just as I was writing this last sentence I saw a report that a civilian aircraft was shot down by somebody in the vicinity of Donetsk. So who done it? Here are some very preliminary thoughts:

First, the Ukies already did that once when they shot down Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 not deliberately, but out of their typical and total incompetence. Second, the Ukies had just announced that the Russians had shot down a Ukie SU-25 (which Russia denies, but which is quite possible), and I could see some Ukie smart-ass deciding to “retaliate” against a “Russian” aircraft. I don’t see how the Resistance could be involved as it probably does not have the kind of missiles needed to reach a typical civilian airliner flying at a typical cruising speed and altitude. The Russian most definitely do, but they also have a well-integrated air multi-layered defense system which should have immediately identified the aircraft origin and ID even if, say, the transponder was malfunctioning. By the way, this also means that the Russians have the radar track of both the plane and the missile which hit it. My guess is that junta controlled forces did it, probably by mistake, but that this will be hard to prove as all the western “experts” will “cover” for Kiev and blame Moscow, and Moscow will blame Kiev, possibly with the recorded radar tracks, but that the “international expert community” will dismiss that as a “Kremlin orchestrated propaganda ploy” (don’t you love the canned sentences used by the western media?). I sure hope that this was not some kind of screw up by the Russians (this is always possible, as the sad stories of TWA 800 or Aerolinee Itavia Flight 870 have shown.

Stay tuned, I will try to continue to keep you posted, and don’t forget the “donation”: button on the left 🙂

Cheers,

The Saker

UPDATE: come to think of it, the Resistance did get its hand on a Ukie base with some Buk missile systems so, alas, we cannot conclude that it *could not* have been them who down the MH17. My first guess is that the Ukies did it, but unfortunately it could have been any actor involved in the war.

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Ukraine SITREP July 17th, 15:55 UTC/Zulu: the complete failure of Poroshenko’s “surprise” (UPDATED)

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