Our Cycle of War used as the seed the Wheeler Index. However, there were some major problems with key events that were overlooked. So we corrected the data and then extended it for the period following his death. We then created a parallel index correlated to economics. The next result was a series of cycles appeared and a correlation with the economy emerged very clearly interfaced with debt. The fundamental principle to emerge from that work was the fact that we could both distinguish between domestic civil unrest which begins and at times moves into revolution, and international events. There are interesting political responses which often determine the outcome.
On the international level, war emerges from two separate trends. First there is the more traditional trend where the economy turns down which results in government needing too find an external enemy or there will be civil unrest that overthrows the government. This version is intertwined with the Civil Unrest Model and is often the escape value for government to retain power. Here the domestic unrest model can be transformed into an international conflict if politics is desperate to save itself and sees that way out.
