Tag: September

WTF OBSERVATION OF THE WEEK

It was bad enough when my local Wal-Mart had aisle upon aisle of Halloween candy available in early August. How many bags of Halloween candy purchased in August or September will really make it to Halloween night? With the land whales roaming the countryside today, I’d reckon NONE. The desperation of American retailers to siphon every ounce of possible profit from the ignorant masses is palpable as you observe retail outlets today. Kohl’s sends out 30% coupons on a weekly basis and when you go to the store, it is virtually empty with dozens and dozens of overstock racks with clothes 60%, 70% and 80% off, before even using the 30% coupon. You can smell the decay.

On Sunday morning while doing my weekly 7:00 am (before the People of Wal-Mart awake and remove their sleep apnea machines) trek to Wal-Mart for paper goods, prepping supplies, and a few other miscellaneous items, I turned my head toward the outdoor department and to my utter amazement saw Christmas trees, decorations, and other assorted Christmas crap already overflowing from that department. I thought to myself WTF!!! It is still 80 degrees outside. I was wearing shorts and flip flops. Halloween is still over a month away. Sure signs of desperation from the biggest retailer in the world. 

The retail pain has only just begun. As this recession gathers strength, job losses build, and the stock market crashes, the number of retail outlets that will close will be beyond comprehension. Retail CEOs have been living in a delusional world where they think the consumer will be coming back. That delusion is going to be shattered into a million pieces. Wal-Mart might as well sell their Chinese made Christmas crap all year long. It won’t do a bit of good.  


The Dow

Guest Post by

DJFOR-W 8-22-2015

The failure of the Dow to close above 17007 confirms that we are not yet ready to take off to the upside. We needed a closing ABOVE 17007 to firm up the market to state definitively that the August low will hold and new highs are ahead. We needed a minimum closing ABOVE 16632 to firm up short-term support. The closing BELOW 16632 does not provide a Monthly Sell Signal; it is a warning that the Dow remains vulnerable going into September. Only a monthly closing BELOW 15550 would have been a MAJOR SELL SIGNAL that key support has held. Consequently, the close of August was not strong enough to avoid a retest of the lows. Therefore, the Dow did not finish in a position that would imply NEW LOWS ahead just yet and there was no confirmation of a bullish development.

Continue reading “The Dow”

RETAIL SALES COLLAPSE IN SEPTEMBER

A critical thinking person might ask themselves how can retail sales be falling if the unemployment rate has been plunging and Obama tells me this is the best economic recovery in decades? The results would have been even worse if the iMorons hadn’t financed millions of new iPhone 6s in September.

I find it fascinating that this absolutely dreadful economic news was buried in small text half way down the page on Marketwatch this morning. I guess it isn’t helpful to their buy the fucking dip mantra as the stock market continues its plunge.

There is no way to spin this report. It sucked and is another warning signal that we’ve entered a world of pain. The Greater Depression has resumed its downward course. It seems QE was the only thing propping up financial markets after all. What a shocker. It did nothing to help the average American. It actually left him far worse off, as consumer debt now sits at a new all-time high, while real household income sits at 25 year lows.

A deep dive into the Census Bureau report reveals some pertinent facts that should concern any rational thinking person. That would exclude the clowns on CNBC and the rest of the captured mainstream corporate media.

  • The “adjusted” retail sales fell by .3% over last month. That is bad enough. Guess how much the non-adjusted retail sales fell? How about 6.8%. I know that sales are supposed to fall in September, but that gap is pretty huge. Consumers spent $30 billion less in September than they did in August.
  • The monthly numbers aren’t as important as the year over year numbers. After nine months, retail sales are only up 3.9% and excluding the subprime pumped auto sales, only up 2.9%. If you believe the BLS CPI figure of 2% inflation, then real retail sales are up a whopping 0.9% over last year. Using a true inflation figure of 5% reveals negative real retail sales. This jives with the plunging retailer profits.
  • Retail sales were up $18 billion over last year. A full 44% of that increase, or $8 billion is attributable to the 7 year 0% loans and billions in subprime auto loans being doled out by automakers to move their recall inventory to the masses.
  • The other significant increase was in restaurants and bars, with a $3 billion increase. This is attributable to the 10% increase in food prices and Americans drinking themselves silly because things are so fucking great.
  • The month over month data is scary. Restaurant sales were flat. Internet sales actually FELL. Auto sales FELL even though they are practically giving them away to anyone who can scratch an X on a lease or loan document. Furniture sales FELL as the fake housing recovery is revealed as a fraud. Clothing sales FELL. Virtually every category was either flat or down.

These results reveal that the employment “recovery” and the housing “recovery” storylines are a fraud. The stock market has been pumped by QE heroine. The patient is beginning to experience withdrawal symptoms. There never was a real recovery. The consumer is still up to their eyeballs in debt, but they are now using the credit card to pay their utilities and taxes. The retail death rattle grows louder by the minute.