Time Passages & Fears Emergent

By Doug “Uncola” Lynn via TheBurningPlatform.com

A few months ago I had this dream.  I’m driving alone at highway speed on a causeway over a large body of water. The road was just a few feet higher than the rippling waves.  Suddenly, I noticed a black mini-van about fifty yards to my left, bobbing on the water’s surface.  The hood and front wheels were submerged and its tail-end began to rise as the vehicle sank in a manner similar to the scene from Titanic – it was going down bow first.

Continue reading “Time Passages & Fears Emergent”

Iran Threatens To Close Strait Of Hormuz If US Blocks Its Oil Exports

Via ZeroHedge

With oil surging to a six month high after a now confirmed report that Trump will not reissue Iranian oil export waivers after they expire on May 2, removing up to 1 million barrels from the market…

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/iran%20oil%20exports%202.jpg?itok=NApvN52H

… Tehran has gone on the offensive and on Monday a senior Iranian military official said the Islamic Republic will close the Strait of Hormuz if it’s prevented from using it, the state-run Fars news agency reported.

Continue reading “Iran Threatens To Close Strait Of Hormuz If US Blocks Its Oil Exports”

HOW ABOUT $6 A GALLON GAS?

There is no effort by any party to reduce the tensions that have been building between the U.S., Israel, the EU and Iran. Both China and Russia are supporting Iran. This crisis has the potential to spark the next act in this Fourth Turning. The next act will be a tragedy, not a comedy.

Expect $200 Oil Prices & $6 At The Pump as Iran Is Now A Full-Blown Crisis

Kent Moors: Just when it looked like we could take a breather from the Strait of Hormuz, all attention is back on Iran.

There are three reasons for this –  all happening within the last week:

  1. First was Tehran’s successful launch of a satellite, viewed by all in the region as being for military intelligence.
  2. Second, in his toughest talk to date, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei voiced defiance to Western sanctions and pledged open retaliationif they are instituted.
  3. Finally, last Thursday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta expressed concern that, if matters continue, Israel could attempt an air-strike takeout of Iranian nuclear facilities within a month. Iran has been frantically moving essential components of its nuclear program underground to withstand such an attack.

All of this is, once again, leading to a rise in crude oil prices (NYSEArca:USO).

 

What’s more, the EU decision to stop importing Iranian crude starting July 1 will cripple any chance Tehran has to combat escalating economic and political turmoil at home.

Yet Khamenei’s defiant tone during his Friday prayer meeting speech indicates that Iran’s religious leadership will not wait for the system to unravel.

And that is what makes this both a full-blown and an intensifying crisis.

Brinksmanship in the Straits of Hormuz

So what’s being done?

Washington has little – leverage,  save its ability to temper an immediate escalation by Israel (leverage the U.S. can still apply, at least for the moment). It also has some indirect influence  on what the E.U. does.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia also is a  wild card. It will not tolerate a nuclear Iran.

And yes, there are ample indications that American and Israeli intelligence have concluded Iran will achieve the ability to develop nuclear weapons in the next 18 to 24 months.

Some elements of that process will be available earlier, but remember: A weapon is of little value unless it can be controlled and delivered. The logistical and infrastructure considerations need  to be in place first.

Yet with such an inevitable conclusion staring them in the face, the West has decided to embark on a risky  path…

The target here is not the nuclear project at all (over which there is less and less outside control). Instead, it has become about creating massive domestic instability to bring down a  regime.

Now, this is not about ending the theocracy. With or without Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president or Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, Iran will remain a Shiite-dominated country. Religion decisively controls politics, and the clergy oversees the society.

The West is seeking a more moderate application of what will remain the Iranian cultural reality.

However, as the brinksmanship intensifies, so will the price of crude oil (NYSEArca:USO). Tehran, in this dangerous game of  international chicken, really only has one card to play – the Strait of Hormuz. [Related: ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE:DVN)]

There has been much misinformation circulated about the strait. Here are the facts.

On any given day, 18% to 20% of the world’s crude oil passes through it.

According to the Energy Information Administration, the Strait’s narrowest point is 21 miles wide; however, the  width of the shipping lane in either direction is just two miles, cushioned by  another two-mile buffer zone.

Of greater significance, though, is  the fact that most of the world’s current excess capacity is Saudi. (This is the oil that can be brought to market quickly to offset unusual demand spikes  or cuts in supply elsewhere.) And, unfortunately, Saudi volume must find its  way through the same little strait.

If we’re unable to access the Saudi  excess, that loss guarantees the global market will be out of balance.  That will intensify the price upsurge – an upsurge that is already happening.

Now for the question I’m being asked several times a day in media interviews…

Just how bad can it get?

$200 Oil and $6 at the Pump

If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices will pop by between $30 and $40 a barrel… within hours.

Despite the excess storage capacity in both the U.S. and European markets and the contracts already at sea, oil traders set prices on a futures curve.

In a normal market the price is set at the expected cost of the next available barrel. During times of crisis, on the other hand, that price is determined by the cost of the most expensive next available barrel. [Related: United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca:USO), SPDR Select Sector Fund (NYSEArca:XLE)]

Should the strait remain closed for 72 hours, oil trading will push up the barrel price to $180 in New York, and closer to $200 in Europe.

Now let me put this in perspective  for you…

A $1 rise in the price of crude  translates into a 3.6-cent rise in the cost at the pump. Within the first week of the strait closure, therefore, pressures in the retail gasoline market will push the price to an average of $6 a gallon.

After one week!

There’s no doubt that this will paralyze economic recovery on both sides of the Atlantic. (Delivery costs on everything will go up, and diesel prices will rise quicker than gasoline.) This is apparently what Khamenei has threatened.

All energy options will be on the table, from alternative energy to tapping Canadian oil sands (and approving pipelines to transport it south), moving from gasoline to compressed natural gas for vehicle fuel, and a range of other possibilities.

Of course, none of these options can move quickly enough to stave off collapse.

Now, there is no guarantee any of this is going to happen. But the uncertainty is moving oil up today. And the uncertainty will remain in the market as we come closer to July 1.

That gives us some space to develop the investor’s reaction to events.

What the Iranian Crisis Means for Investors

Nothing happens until the beginning  of July on the European oil embargo, but the markets are hardly going to wait  that long.

I am off to London for meetings on  the crisis at the end of this month, followed by the annual session of the royal chartered Windsor Energy Group at the castle of the same name, and then  on to Scotland for a presentation at the U.K. Energy Policy Center. This crisis  will be the center of attention at all these get-togethers, and I will be  taking readers of Oil and Energy Investor along with me.

So how, as investors, do we respond  to this?

I think it requires a rebalancing your portfolio, as well as revising your exposure to both corporate dividends and the commodity value of oil and gas.

Written By Kent Moors, Ph.D. From Money Morning

Dr. Kent F. Moors is an internationally recognized expert in global risk management, oil/natural gas policy and finance, cross-border capital flows, emerging market economic and fiscal development, political, financial and market risk assessment. He is the executive managing partner of Risk Management Associates International LLP (RMAI), a full-service, global-management-consulting and executive training firm. Moors has been an advisor to the highest levels of the U.S., Russian, Kazakh, Bahamian, Iraqi and Kurdish governments, to the governors of several U.S. states, and to the premiers of two Canadian provinces. He’s served as a consultant to private companies, financial institutions and law firms in 25 countries and has appeared more than 1,400 times as a featured radio-and-television commentator in North America, Europe and Russia, appearing on ABC, BBC, Bloomberg TV, CBS, CNN, NBC, Russian RTV and regularly on Fox Business Network.

Moors is a contributing editor to the two current leading post-Soviet oil and natural gas publications (Russian Petroleum Investorand Caspian Investor), monthly digests in Middle Eastern and Eurasian market developments, as well as six previous analytical series targeting post-Soviet and emerging markets. He also directs WorldTrade Executive’s Russian and Caspian Basin Special Projects Division. The effort brings together specialists from North America, Europe, the former Soviet Union and Central Asia in an integrated electronic network allowing rapid response to global energy and financial developments.

Related posts:

  1. 20 Signs That Europe Is Plunging Into A Full-Blown Economic Depression (VGK, IEV, EPV, EWP, EWI, EUO, EWG)
  2. Investors: All You Need To Know About Iran, $200 Oil, and $6.00 Gas Prices (USO, SU, XLE, UCO, DIG, DUG)
  3. Oil Prices: Should Investors Be Worried About The Iran Situation? (USO, OIH, ERY, ERX, XLE)
  4. Outlook For Oil In 2012: Why Investors Should Expect $150 Oil Prices and How To Profit (USO, PBR, XOP, CHK, SU)
  5. Expect Much Higher Silver and Gold Prices By Year’s End (SLV, SLW, GLD, NEM)

IRAN IS BIG

Another good article from http://www.theoildrum.com/. Some interesting charts and maps. The first chart shows that Iran produced 6 million barrels of oil per day in the 1970s. The Islamic revolution and the brutal war with Iraq resulted in a collapse of their oil production. It has barely reached 4 million barrels per day since the early 1990s. They are unable to ramp up production due to sanctions and the lack of technological expertise. More than 60% of their exports go to the far east. China, Japan and India will not be happy if Israel and the U.S. decide to teach Iran a lesson.

I’ve always been geographically challenged. I never realized the size of Iran. Take a really good look at that map. Iran dominates the Middle East. Take a long hard look at the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 15 oil tankers per day, carrying 34% of the world’s oil supply, must traverse a 6 mile wide traffic lane. Imagine what would happen to worldwide oil prices if this Strait was shutdown. The Iranians aren’t stupid. This is their trump card.

Imagine how many soldiers it would take to subdue a country this large. Cruise missiles and B1 bombers aren’t going to defeat Iran. We’d just be killing thousands of innocent Iranians. The neo-cons like Gingrich and Romney act like taking out Iran will be a piece of cake. When have the neo-cons ever been wrong? The sanctions and embargoes are designed to force Iran to do something stupid. They will be attacked no matter what they do. The unintended consequences will likely lead to the next phase of this Fourth Turning.

Iran – Possible Implications of an Oil Embargo

Posted by Euan Mearns on December 6, 2011 – 6:30am
Does Thursday’s announcement that the EU is considering to ban oil imports from Iran epitomise the draining of power from west to east? The big winners here will be China and India, who do not fear rising Iranian influence and who will gladly soak up any additional oil exports they may have to offer. However, ending this small dependency upon Iranian oil imports in Europe (Figure 2) does clear the way for military action without the need to ponder the immediate consequences on oil imports.

 


 

Figure 1 Iran displays export land traits where growing domestic consumption is eating into the oil available for export that has been declining slowly since 2003. Data from BP. Y-axis is barrels per day (1000s). Balance = production less consumption which is a proxy for net exports. Production = crude+condensate+NGL whilst consumption may include refinery “gains” and bio-fuel. In many countries there is also an active two-way trade in crude and refined products. 

In a week where the UK embassy in Iran was overrun and the two countries are breaking off diplomatic ties, on the back of heightened concern about Iran’s nuclear weapons program and an unexplained explosion at an Iranian missile launching site, the EU has decided to flex its muscles and to ban Iranian oil imports. The big winners here are the other countries importing oil from Iran – Japan, China, India and South Korea. Does the EU really believe that in today’s extremely tight oil market that oil sanctions against Iran will worry them in the least? 


 

Figure 2 Table from a worthy article on Iranian oil and demographics posted on Crude Oil Peak details the countries importing oil from Iran in 2008. The four EU countries to be affected by any embargo will be Italy, Spain, Greece and France. Given that Greece and Spain are already in recession and that Italy and France are heading in that direction, it seems likely that their oil consumption will already be on the wane and that losing these relatively small amounts of Iranian imports will have little consequence. 


 

Figure 3 OPEC net exports (production consumption balance from BP) showing the importance of The Gulf states. 

With the risks of armed conflict against Iran increasing with every week that passes it is important to grasp what this may mean for global oil markets. Two end points seem to exist. The first is where “the West”, i.e. NATO or some other looser alliance ± Israel launches a cruise missile attack (conventional) against Iran’s nuclear facilities. destroying them. In that eventuality Iran, with current leadership, would be unlikely to ever again export oil to “the West”, but since at that point The West will not be importing any oil from Iran this would not matter. 


 

Figure 4 Iranian oil infrastructure, setting in the Arabian or Persian Gulf and the linch pin location of The Straights of Hormuz. Map from Wikipedia. 

The second more extreme scenario is that armed conflict spreads, compromising oil exports through the Straights of Hormuz. Oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Iraq and Iran all pass through Hormuz. Data is not available for Iraq, but exports from Saudi, Kuwait, UAE and Qatar stood at around 12,805,000 bpd in 2010. The global net export market stood at around 35,173,000 and so these 4 countries alone account for around 36.4% of the global export market (excluding Iraq and Iran). Should these exports cease, albeit temporarily, the oil price will go through the roof, causing severe trauma to the global economy, including China. 

In addition, there are significant liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar that pass through Hormuz on a daily basis. According to BP, Qatar exported around 96 BCM of gas in 2010 (Figure 5) to the countries shown in Figure 6. In Europe, the UK, Spain, and Belgium would be most affected by disruption to LNG supplies from the Gulf whilst in Asia, India, S Korea, and Japan would be most affected. This highlights the increasingly exposed nature of OECD energy supplies where electricity supplies may be threatened by armed conflicts on the other side of the world. 


 

Figure 5 Production / consumption balance for natural gas in Qatar. 


 

Figure 6 Destinations of LNG exports from Qatar in 2010.