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Past Russian wars: a quick look at history
The number of well-informed commentators, politicians, blogger and observers who are predicting a war – or at least of a serious risk of war – between Russia and the USA is sharply rising. Though I myself am rather inclined to believe that the US will use the Ukrainian junta to attack Russia rather then risk a direct confrontation, I would not go as far as saying that I find a direct US-Russian war impossible. If only because many wars are not deliberately started, but rather stumbled into. For all these reasons, it is, I think, high time to look at the historical record of Russia in wars.
It turns out that a military historian in Russia already did all the work for us. Nikolai Shefov is the author of 10 books about Russian history including one entitled “The Battles of Russia” in which he not only looks at each war, but actually at all the major battles fought in all the wars of Russia between 1700 and 1940 (he stops at the Soviet-Finnish war and does not include WWII). Here are his findings:
Between 1700 and 1940 Russia/USSR fought in 34 wars and won 31 and in 392 battle and won 279. We could say that Russia won 91% of her wars and 71% of her battles. Russia’s opponents included: Swedes, French, Germans, Turks, Poles, Tatars, Finns, Caucasians, Japanese, Chinese, Austrians, Hungarians, British, Italians and Central Asians.
In the author’s opinion Russia lost only three wars: the Crimean one, the Russo-Japanese one and the one against Poland in 1920. He considers that Russia won the first world war because no enemy ever stepped on any part of the Russian land (If you are interested, here is a link to an the original book in Russian, to an article summarizing the book, and to a machine-translation of this article into English).
I would just add that Crimea was fought against what I call a “great ecumenical coalition” (including Anglican British, the Latin French and the Muslim Turks) which outnumbered the Russians by over 200’000 people (there was almost a MILLION “ecumenical attackers” for just over 700’00 Russian defenders. But yes, Russia did lose this one.
Did Russia lose the war against Japan? I would argue that the Russian Fleet sure was defeated by the Japanese Navy, but Japanese historians have a very different view of what happened and consider that Japan’s military was spent by the time the peace treaty was drafted (by the Russian side, by the way) and that Japan had been forced to accept very bad terms. At the very least, I would call this one a draw.
As for the Russian-Polish war, yes, the Soviet’s lost this one badly. But look at the kind of Soviet Union we had in 1920: a country in the midst of a civil war, with many uprising taking place, with a “worker-farmer” “army” with no real officers and let by clueless commissars. So while the outcome was a defeat, the circumstances of that defeat are, I think, so unique as to be irrelevant.
But whatever the fine print and different views of the significance of individual outcomes, I think that these figures strongly suggest that attacking Russia is an exceedingly bad idea, even when only conventional wars are considered. Attacking Russia while she has the powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet is utter lunacy.
Let’s hope that this short reminder will reach at least one of the crazies who think that playing a game of chicken with Russia is a sound policy and that the Russians will “blink first” impressed by the US/NATO military prowess.
Russia Threatens US with Nuclear War
Russia has continually sent signals to these Western leaders that it can wage nuclear war. Russia keeps sending bombers into strategic places that can take out key cities in the USA and Europe. Even during the last NATO summit/Golf resort trip, two aircraft took off from an air base in western Russia, just east of the Russian city of Saratov. The aircraft, Tu-95 strategic bombers code-named Bear by NATO, flew northwest, skirting Iceland, Greenland, and Canada. They then turned on a heading straight toward the United States. This was what was called a “launch box” maneuver where just off the coast of the USA they would fire nuclear-tipped cruise missiles towards American cities and military bases.
These provocative flights were timed to a NATO summit that was attended by President Obama in Wales. I have warned from the outset that Ukraine should have been divided and the Russian ethic regions should be surrendered to Russia. I restated this position just last August. I recommended that position since the start of the year because this was the ONLY way to defuse the crisis that would get worse and has. Let the people return as part of Russia. In Ukraine, they have always looked down on the East as sort of the uneducated hicks anyway. Why endanger the entire world over such a stupid issue?
Had the agreement been reached to simply split the nation, then there would not have been the killings and death toll we see now. Instead of paying for bailouts, simply afford the means to relocate people from the East who wanted to remain outside of Russia. This conflict is stupid. The is like waging nuclear war because Key West, Florida calls itself the Conch Republic that wants to secede from the USA.
What difference does it make is the rural backward region of Ukraine prefers Russia since they speak Russian. Let the people decide their own fate. Haven’t political leaders caused more wars, pain, and bloodshed trying to carve up the world into territorial fiefdoms?
TIMES THEY ARE A CHANGIN
Mood and perceptions are what drive Fourth Turnings. Can you tell this Fourth Turning began in 2008?
The mood of the world is darkening. Storm clouds are just over the horizon. It’s going to be a bitterly cold stormy Winter.
Are you ready?
China and not the United States is viewed as the world’s foremost economic power by Europeans, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center. Back in 2008, before the financial crisis, a European median of 44 percent considered the United States the leading economic powerhouse worldwide. In that year, 29 percent considered China the world’s leader.
China raced into the lead for the first time in 2010, and today, it’s viewed as the foremost economic power by 49 percent of Europeans compared to 34 percent for the United States. Interestingly, the shift in peception concerns America’s premier European allies – France Germany, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom.
You will find more statistics at Statista
WHERE DO ISRAEL’S BOMBS COME FROM?
I’ll give you one guess. Always ask – Who Benefits? – whenever a new war is launched. Smedley Butler and Ron Paul know the answer.
“War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small “inside” group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes.” – Smedley Butler
“It is no coincidence that the century of total war coincided with the century of central banking.” – Ron Paul
IS THE U.S. TURNING INTO A POLICE STATE?
AMERICAN DIPLOMACY
Photo says it all about US-Russia relations. Amb. Samantha Power vs Amb. Vitaly Churkin at UN.
The Sweet Google/Lenovo Deal
Check this out. I read an article last week, I think, that described a deal in the works with the Chinese Co. Lenovo and Google. The deal would have Google selling off its Motorola handset division for a cool $2.91 billion(here) only 2 years after Google purchased Motorola Mobility for $13 billion (here). Now, Reuters is reporting that Google purchased an almost 6% stake in Lenovo a month ago for $750 million (here). WTF is up with that? Some suggest insider trading? I say we ask Jim, since he is an accountant! This smells like some kind of gimmick like Enron might run! Picaboo Accounting tricks as Max Keiser calls it! Shell games! I call Bullshit!