David Stockman on Why Markets Always Beat Central Bankers and Presidents

Via International Man

Beat Central Bankers

Goodness me, even the Wall Street Journal is catching on. In a piece about the inflationary rebound theory of a former UK central banker named Charles Goodhart, it actually tees-up the possibility of high inflation for a decade or longer due to an adverse, epochal shift in the global labor supply.

He argued that the low inflation since the 1990s wasn’t so much the result of astute central-bank policies, but rather the addition of hundreds of millions of inexpensive Chinese and Eastern European workers to the globalized economy, a demographic dividend that pushed down wages and the prices of products they exported to rich countries. Together with new female workers and the large baby-boomer generation, the labor force supplying advanced economies more than doubled between 1991 and 2018.

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As Illegal Immigration Declines, Employers Forced to Raise Wages

Guest Post by Joe Guzzardi

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A new Center for Migration Studies (CMS) report showed that between 2010 and 2016, illegal immigration declined 8 percent, down from 11.7 million to 10.8 million, its lowest level in 15 years. The illegal immigrant population is always in flux, and some refer to think tanks’ totals as guesstimates. But after analyzing United States and Mexican government statistics, Pew Research came to the same conclusion as CMS. During the period studied, CMS researched six of the top ten states in which illegal immigrants reside – Illinois, North Carolina, California, New York, Arizona and Georgia – and noted that they had at least 10 percent declines.

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THINGS COULDN’T BE BETTER – RIGHT?

Image result for gotta wear shadesDonald Trump tells me our best days are ahead. Once his tax cut plan is passed, the future will be so bright I’ll have to wear shades.

Sometimes a single chart reveals the truth being obscured by the Deep State propaganda machine, working overtime selling their economic recovery narrative. The economy most certainly is booming for Wall Streeters and D.C. parasites sucking on the teet of Federal government largess. But for the average working deplorable, this supposed recovery has passed them by.

The cognitive dissonance is strong, as average Americans want to believe what their “leaders” are telling them to believe, but their personal financial situation contradicts the narrative. Even using the highly manipulated data peddled by the BLS, any critical thinking individual can see through the lies, misinformation and bullshit.

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Millennials Are Delaying Marriage Because Men Aren’t Earning Enough

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Economists and social scientists have gathered multitudes of data about Millennials’ tendency to delay the traditional milestones of maturity (starting a career, getting married, buying a home, having kids) in favor of a prolonged adolescence.

But in a new study examining household formation patterns in the US, Pew Research Center has isolated the biggest factor behind the rise in those households without a partner or spouse: “The declining ability of men to earn a salary large enough to sustain a family.”

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LIES, LIES & OMG MORE LIES

“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli

Every month the government apparatchiks at the Bureau of Lies and Scams (BLS) dutifully announces inflation is still running below 2%. Janet Yellen then gives a speech where she notes her concern inflation is too low and she needs to keep interest rates near zero to save humanity from the scourge of too low inflation. I don’t know how I could survive without 2% inflation reducing my purchasing power.

This week they reported year over year inflation of 1.9%. Just right to keep Janet from raising rates and keeping the stock market on track for new record highs. According to our beloved bureaucrats, after they have sliced, diced, massaged and manipulated the data, you’ve experienced annual inflation of 2.1% since 2000. If you believe that, I’ve got a great real estate deal for you in North Korea on the border with South Korea.

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The Fed And The Second (Housing) Bull Run: Home Price Growth 2X Hourly Wage Growth

Via The Snake Hole Lounge

Housing is on its second leg of a bull run after the first bull run crashed and burned in 2007/2008. The growth in home prices has outstripped average hourly income since 1999.

Here is a chart comparing home price growth YoY and average hourly wage growth YoY.  Notice that is has stabilized to 2x (home prices growing twice as fast as average wage growth).

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Explaining The Consumption-Disfunction

Guest Post by Lance Roberts

Stop Blaming Consumers, They Can’t Help It

 

Since 2009, mainstream economists, the media, and the Fed have continued to prognosticate a resurgence of economic growth. Yet each year, as shown in the chart of Fed forecasts below, such predictions have repeatedly overstated reality.

FOMC-Economic-Forecasts-031616

Since the economy is almost 2/3rds driven by consumption, it was only a function of time before these same individuals, consistently wrong, lash out at those directly responsible for their shortcomings – the consumer. As noted by Robert Samuelson via The Washington Post:

“American consumers aren’t what they used to be — and that helps explain the plodding economic recovery. It gets no respect despite creating 14 million jobs and lasting almost seven years. The great gripe is that economic growth has been held to about 2 percent a year, well below historical standards. This sluggishness reflects a profound psychological transformation of American shoppers, who have dampened their consumption spending, affecting about two-thirds of the economy. To be blunt: We have sobered up.”

While Robert is correct about consumers not being what they used to be, he is wrong about the reasoning why.

Yes, the economy has created 14 million jobs since the last recession but it has not been the economic nirvana that such a number would seemingly reflect. This is because the majority of the jobs created have been in lower wage-paying industries which has suppressed overall wage growth which is lower today than it was in 2000. Furthermore, while 14 million jobs have been created, the working-age population has grown by 17 million. 

Employment-PopGrowth-Jobs-051216

Of course, the problem becomes more apparent when you realize that 1-in-5 families have ZERO members employed. In other words, it is not a lack of a desire to consume but an inability to do so.

Continue reading “Explaining The Consumption-Disfunction”

This Is What You Spent Your Entire Pay Raise On

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There has been some muted cheering at the Fed (and the Obama administration) when as a result of numerous statewide minimum wage hikes, average hourly earnings finally started to rise in early 2016, recently hitting a 2% annual increase, even if on a weekly basis they dropped to post-recession lows as the number of hours worked actually dropped confirming the decline in US output continues.

The news is worse if one steps away from government “data” and looks at third party research. According to a recent report by Sentier Research, median income wages rose only 1.4%. As MarketWatch calculates, on the 2015 median income of $56,746, a 1.4% gain would translate to about $66 more a month, before taxes, or about $48 after tax.

Here’s the problem. As we have repeatedly shown in the past, as a result of the death of the US housing dream, which has pushed the homeownership rate to record lows

… and as Americans are either unable to afford a house, or the bank just won’t give them the necessary mortgage, median asking rents have soared to record highs.

 

Furthermore, as we showed yesterday following the latest monthly CPI report, the cost of rent rose 3.7% compared to a year ago in March. That was the fourth straight month with such a strong gain, the highest since before the financial crisis.

 

So here’s the math: across the nation, the median rent for a two-bedroom apartment is $1,300, according to Apartment List. So a 3.7% rent rise, or about $48, which means that just the official rise in asking rent prices… swallowed the entire salary “gain”of $48 in after tax dollars.

Oh and that excludes Obamacare: as the government also reported, medial bills soared, in fact in February, medical care grew at the fastest rate in more than three years.

So the next time someone wonders why US households are spending far less than expected, tell them it’s because they need to live, preferably with a roof above their heads..


CUTTING THROUGH BLS BULLSHIT

The BLS just reported their monthly seasonally adjusted, birth death adjusted, bullshit guess of employment, designed to keep the sheeple in the dark. Amazingly, it wasn’t too bad or too good. The MSM says it was just right. The ongoing mantra is the job market has been strong and growing for years. Meanwhile, consumers don’t have money to spend. Maybe it’s the 2.3% annual wage increases when their living expenses go up by 5% or more.

Here are a few data points you won’t see on CNBC:

  • The establishment survey says 215,000 jobs were added in March. The good old birth death adjustment threw 65,000 new phantom jobs into that calculation for all the new small businesses opening up. Anyone with half a brain knows there have been more small businesses closing than opening for the last 4 years. The plus 65,000 is more likely minus 65,000. That would change the headline. Wouldn’t it?
  • The household survey shows 246,000 more people employed. What you won’t hear on CNBC is that it also shows 151,000 more people unemployed. It seems 206,000 people who were supposedly not in the labor force in February are suddenly back in. I thought the MSM said it was Boomers retiring creating the surge in people not in the labor force. I guess that was another false storyline.
  • Now for the good stuff. Table A-9 reveals the true health of this booming employment market. Of the 246,000 newly employed Americans, very few of the jobs were good paying secure positions, with benefits.
  • The number of self-employed people jumped by 194,000. So, selling shit on Ebay and Amway sales are propelling the job surge. Sounds promising.
  • The number of multiple job holders surged by 127,000 in March. So, Americans need to work two $7.50 an hour Obama jobs to make ends meet. This is truly a sign of a booming jobs market.
  • The number of employed men between the ages of 35 and 54 (prime earning years for men) dropped by 76,000 in March. It is lower than it was in January. When there are less bread winners working, the jobs recovery mantra is a fraud.
  • In a sure sign of a strong growing productive economy, 29,000 more manufacturing jobs disappeared for good. I’m sure China and Vietnam  appreciate the new manufacturing jobs sent their way.

  • At least the 26,000 newly unemployed, formerly well paid Americans, were able to get a waiter job at TGI Fridays, as the number of waiters and bartenders jumped by another 25,000. Our transition from a savings based producing society into a debt based consumption society is nearly complete. Thank you Obama.

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LIES, DAMN LIES, & BLS STATISTICS

“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” ― Benjamin Disraeli

It’s my favorite day of the month. The Bureau of Lies & Scams issues their double seasonally adjusted, massaged to provide a happy ending, birth death adjusted unemployment propaganda, designed to keep the masses in the dark about their own dire financial circumstances. Even though the equally manipulated GDP is at 1% or below, retail sales are plunging, corporate profits plummeted by 15% in the 4th quarter and Challenger & Grey corporate layoff announcements were up 42% in January versus last year, our fraudulent friends at the BLS announced glorious employment figures this morning.

The Establishment data that gets all the headlines blared that 242,000 net new jobs were created in February. Of course, 129,000 fake birth/death jobs were factored into that number. Anyone with a functioning brain (excludes Wall Street economists, CNBC shills, and any government apparatchik) knows that more businesses have been closing than opening for the last four years as Obamacare and government solutions destroy the economy. Rather than adding 129,000 jobs, small businesses likely subtracted 50,000 jobs in February. That would put the true number at about 60,000.

In a shocking coincidence, Trim Tabs, a privately run independent company that monitors actual real time payroll withholding tax info issued a report two days ago which said the number of new jobs created in February was between 55,000 and 85,000, based on actual withholding tax data. If you are employed, payroll taxes are automatically extracted. This data cannot be manipulated by the government propagandists. It reveals the truth. No seasonal adjustments, tweaks or phantom jobs added. It’s pure tax data.

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Super Bowl 50 – What Has Changed in the US Since 1967

Please note that men’s REAL median income has gone up by only 9% over the last 50 years, and that is using the blatantly fake CPI calculation. Using a true measure of inflation would reveal that men make less money today than they did in 1967. And the MSM & corrupt politicians wonder why so many people are so pissed off.

Infographic: Super Bowl 50 - What Has Changed in the US Since 1967 | Statista
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Paul Ryan’s Express: US Public Debt Has Over Doubled Since Dec 2007, Average Wage Growth Down 28%

Guest Post by Anthony B. Sanders

House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell delivered a $1.1 TRILLION omnibus spending package to President Obama who signed it gleefully.

Yes, there was ample quantities of pork barrel spending, too long to list here. Here is the 2009 page omnibus (Or cronybus) spending bill. omnibus-spending-bill-text

budgetvre

Has Federal government spending (and debt) done any good? Other than those receiving boodle from the Federal government?

Since December 2007, US public debt has over doubled. Despite the prodigious debt issuance, M2 Money Velocity keeps crashing.

Continue reading “Paul Ryan’s Express: US Public Debt Has Over Doubled Since Dec 2007, Average Wage Growth Down 28%”

CONSUMERS NOT FOLLOWING ORDERS

Last week the government reported personal income and spending for April. After months of blaming non-existent consumer spending on cold weather, shockingly occurring during the Winter, the captured mainstream media pundits, Ivy League educated Wall Street economist lackeys, and Keynesian loving money printers at the Fed have run out of propaganda to explain why Americans are not spending money they don’t have. The corporate mainstream media is now visibly angry with the American people for not doing what the Ivy League propagated Keynesian academic models say they should be doing.

The ultimate mouthpiece for the banking cabal, Jon Hilsenrath, who does the bidding of the Federal Reserve at the Rupert Murdoch owned Wall Street Journal, wrote an arrogant, condescending, putrid diatribe, directed at the middle class victims of Wall Street banker criminality and Federal Reserve acquiescence to the vested corporate interests that run this country. Here are the more disgusting portions of his denunciation of the formerly middle class working people of America.

We know you experienced a terrible shock when Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 and your employer responded by firing you. 

We also know you shouldn’t have taken out that large second mortgage during the housing boom to fix up your kitchen with granite counter-tops. 

You should feel lucky you’re not a Greek consumer.

Fed officials want to start raising the cost of your borrowing because they worry they’ve been giving you a free ride for too long with zero interest rates.

We listen to Fed officials all of the time here at The Wall Street Journal, and they just can’t figure you out.

Please let us know the problem.

The Wall Street Journal was swamped with thousands of angry responses from irate real people living in the real world, not the elite, QE enriched, oligarchs living in Manhattan penthouses, mansions on the Hamptons, or luxury condos in Washington, D.C. Hilsenrath presumes to know how the average American has been impacted by the criminal actions of sycophantic Ivy League educated central bankers and their avaricious Wall Street owners.

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THINGS ARE SO GREAT YOU GOTTA WEAR SHADES

The BLS reported the fabulous news this morning that the job market is fucking booming. Everyone has a job and we’re making gobs of dough. It does make you ponder why the Federal Reserve needs to keep interest rates at 0% if everything is so fucking fantastic. It does make you ponder why corporation after corporation is reporting shitty earnings and warning that 2015 will be worse. It does make you ponder why retailers keep going bankrupt if consumers are employed and flush with cash. After perusing the data, here are a couple observations:

  • The birth death spreadsheet adjustment which is supposed to capture new businesses hiring, was by far the most beneficial January adjustment in the last decade. How many new businesses starting up in your area?
  • There are 2.8 million more working age Americans than one year ago, while the number of employed is up 3 million. You would think the unemployment rate would only be slightly lower. Nope. It plunged from 6.6% to 5.7%. Because 1.1 million people leave the labor force during an economic recovery. Right?
  • Wages went up by 2.2% in the last year. So, when you factor in a true inflation rate of things you need to live your everyday life of at least 5%, real wages fell. Maybe that explains why Christmas spending was atrocious.
  • The labor participation rate of 62.9% is lower than last January and hovers near 30 year lows.
  • The employment to population ratio also hovers near 30 year lows. Who needs to work when you have foodstamps and Obamacare?

  • Of the supposedly 257,000 new jobs added, only 58,000 (22.5%) were goods producing jobs. The rest were low paying retail, social services, food services, healthcare, and education service jobs. Last January 54% of the new jobs were in goods producing industries. The layoffs in the high paying energy sector have just begun. There will be hundreds of thousands who lose their jobs due to the plunge in oil prices.

I await Janet Yellen having a surprise news conference to announce an interest rate increase because the jobs market is booming and wages are soaring. Wait for it. Bueller? Bueller?

January Payrolls Smash Expectations Rising By 257,000 As Hourly Earnings Surge Most Since November 2008

Tyler Durden's picture

So much for expectations that January, missing on 9 out of 10 previous occasions, will miss again, as the BLS just reported that in January a whopping 257K jobs were added, far above the 228K expected, and up from December’s 252K which was revised as part of the annual BLS data revision to 329K, a whopping 147K revision! More impressive: the household survey reported that a whopping 759K jobs were created in January.

The unemployment rate rose from 5.6% to 5.7%, above the 5.6% expected.

Continue reading “THINGS ARE SO GREAT YOU GOTTA WEAR SHADES”

WHAT THE FED HAS WROUGHT

The chart below might be the most powerful indictment of the Federal Reserve and our corporate fascist empire of debt ever created. Some people don’t get charts. Charts tell a story. This chart tells the story of elitist bankers supporting the agenda of a corporate fascist state, resulting in the gutting of the middle class. Anyone who views this chart in a positive manner is either a Federal Reserve banker or their paycheck is dependent upon the continuation of the pillaging of the working class. Corporate profits are at all-time highs. Profit margins have always reverted to the mean throughout modern history. If they remain at all-time highs then something is terribly wrong.

“Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with the system and it is not functioning properly.” Jeremy Grantham, Barron’s

Here is the story I see in that chart. Corporate profits as a percentage of GNP have averaged 6.5% over the last 67 years. As you can see, it is a volatile figure. Corporate profits rise during expansions and fall during recessions. That has been a given over time. The reason corporate profits have always reverted to the mean was due to the basic tenets of free market capitalism. When a company is generating outsized profits, that industry will then attract new competitors, resulting in price competition and lower profits. From 1950 through 1971, corporate profits as a percentage of GNP fluctuated in a narrow range between 5% and 7%. This was a reflection of a market driven by competition, a non-interventionist Federal Reserve, and a government not captured by corporate interests.

It is no coincidence since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and unleashed greedy bankers, feckless politicians, and self serving corporate executives to utilize easy money and prodigious amounts of debt to financialize our economic system and deform capitalism, corporate profits have boomed and busted. The Fed created booms and busts are clearly evident on the chart. Nixon toady Arthur Burns created an inflationary boom in corporate profits to 8% of GNP in the late 70’s followed by the collapse to 3% caused by Volcker having to raise rates to extreme levels to crush the Burns created runaway inflation.

You can see exactly when the Maestro assumed command at the Fed and proceeded to introduce the Greenspan Put, encouraging speculation, borrowing and mal-investment. His easy money boom led to the dot com bubble that doubled corporate profits from their 1987 low. Of course the profits vaporized in an instant and plunged to 4% of GNP in 2001. Greenspan and then Bernanke  proceeded to drive interest rates to record lows creating a prodigious housing bubble resulting in the greatest level of mal-investment and financial fraud in world history. Corporate profits as a percentage of GNP skyrocketed from 4% to 10% in the space of six years. The banking cabal had captured the system.

The Fed orchestra kept the music playing and Wall Street kept dancing the rumba with their corporate CEO dates. The Keynesian acolytes were ecstatic. The Austrians warned of the impending bust. No one listened. The collapse of the worldwide financial system was portrayed by the corporate mainstream media, bankers like Dimon, corporate CEOs like Immelt, billionaires like Buffet, captured government bureaucrats like Paulson, and politicians like McCain and Obama, as a systematic risk that required a taxpayer rescue of criminals.

The $800 billion gift to bankers and mega-corporations by the Washington DC Party of captured politicians was chicken feed compared to the $3.5 trillion of newly printed fiat handed to Wall Street and corporate America by Bernanke and Yellen. Five years of 0% interest rates have impoverished senior citizens and savers, but they have done wonders for Wall Street and mega-corporation profits, along with executive bonuses. Corporate profits soared from 4.5% of GNP to an all-time high of 10.5% in the space of three years and have remained at this elevated level.

Who Needs Wage Earners Anyway?

Is it a coincidence that corporate profits as a percentage of GNP are at record highs while employee compensation as a percentage of GNP is at record lows? Is it a coincidence that employee compensation as a percentage of GNP peaked at 51% in 1971? That year certainly seems to be a turning point in U.S. economic history. Gold’s purpose as a check on statists, Keynesians, politicians, bankers, and the military industrial complex couldn’t be any clearer. The decline has multiple causes, but the storyline about technology being the major cause is patently false. My observations are as follows:

  • From the end of World War II until the mid-1970s employee compensation as a percentage of GNP was consistently between 49% and 51%. The middle class saw their standard of living rise as wages outpaced inflation, savings rates were high and led to capital investment, debt was used for long term purchases like a home or automobile, and bankers accepted deposits and made safe loans. Technological progress over the thirty years was constant, but did not result in declining wages.
  • From the moment Nixon closed the gold window, employee compensation as percentage of GNP relentlessly declined for the next quarter of a century from 51% to 44%. Over this time frame our economy deformed from a goods producing system driven by savings and capital investment into a service/financial economy built upon consumer debt, conspicuous consumption and market gambling. Our iconic mega-corporations fired Americans and hired Chinese slave laborers, lobbied for tax breaks, invested in their own stock, kept wage increases below the level of true inflation, and paid extravagant compensation packages to their Harvard MBA executives.
  • The brief upturn created by Greenspan’s irrational exuberance 90’s boom was short lived. The relentless decline resumed after the dot com collapse, even as Greenspan and Bernanke blew their epic bubble. Their financial engineering machinations on behalf of Wall Street did nothing for the average worker on Main Street. Employee compensation as a percentage of GNP declined from 47% to 44% BEFORE the financial collapse.
  • Unequivocal proof that Bernanke’s sole purpose of QE and ZIRP was to benefit his Wall Street owners can be seen in the continued decline from 44% to 42% since 2008. There has been no recovery for the average American. Wall Street is rolling in dough. Corporate America is rolling in dough. Politicians are rolling in dough. The average American worker is rolling in dog shit.

The mouthpieces for the Deep State insist corporate profits have reached a permanently high plateau. It’s another new paradigm. Just like 1929, 1999, and 2007. Jeremy Grantham is right. The system is broken. The inmates are running the asylum. But financial engineering will not work permanently.  Baijnath Ramraika and Prashant Trivedi in their outstanding article Why Jeremy Grantham is Right about Corporate Profit Margins prove that corporate gross margins have not grown, technological advancement has not been a major factor, innovation and capital investment are non-existent, and corporate CEOs have utilized one time schemes to boost profits.

There are a few major reasons for record corporate profits. The Fed’s gift to banks and mega-corporations of zero interest rates have allowed S&P 500 corporations to refinance their existing debt and take on new debt at below market interest rates. The average interest rate paid by S&P 500 companies is now at all-time lows. Any normalization of interest rates would crush corporate profits.

Even though you hear constant propaganda from the corporate MSM, corporate CEOs, and captured politicians about the dreadful level of corporate taxes, the truth is that mega-corporations are paying record low levels of actual taxes. When profits are at record highs and tax payments at record lows you know they have captured the system. “Creative” tax avoidance and the FASB allowing banks to mark their assets to fantasy have played an enormous role in record profits.

The short term oriented casino mentality of corporate CEOs can be plainly seen in the fact depreciation expense as a percentage of revenue is at 25 year lows, resulting in short term profits but long-term decline. Instead of investing in capital to increase efficiency or expand their business, greedy myopic CEOs have chosen to buy back their own stock at all-time high prices. They did the same thing in 2005 – 2007. Driving up quarterly earnings per share to boost their own stock option compensation is how it rolls in corporate America today. Investing in their workers through higher wages isn’t even a consideration. They don’t teach that in Ivy League MBA programs. SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue have been driven to all time lows, as outsourcing, downsizing, and working people to death have done wonders for corporate profits.

Ramraika and Trivedi reach damning conclusions of corporate America, based on their detailed unbiased research:

As the world moved increasingly towards the idea of shareholder-value maximization, time horizons for management and the shareholders have shortened. As Montier shows, the average lifespan of a company in the S&P 500 in the 1970s was about 27 years and is down to about 15 years now. In tandem, the average tenure of CEOs is down from about 10 years in the 1970s to about 6 years now. Combine this with the incentive systems prevalent today (think stock options), and it is only logical that a CEO who is going to be around for as few as six years and is going to get a large chunk of her rewards in stock options will want to see higher stock prices.

Cutting SGA expenses and postponing capital investments — actions that carry positive short-term earnings impact at the expense of a business’ competitiveness in the long-term — look promising to managers whose payoffs depend on stock prices in the short-term. Not surprisingly, the renters (there are hardly any owners any more) clamor for just such actions. The problem with this thinking is that the long-term eventually shows up. And when it does, profit margins will have no choice but to remember their long forgotten tendency to revert to mean.

Are interest rates going to be driven lower for corporations? Are taxes going to be driven lower? How many more people can corporations fire? Have economic downturns been eliminated by the Federal Reserve? Will record profits not result in increased competition and price wars? Can wages be driven even lower?

The financial, economic and political system has been captured by corporate fascist psychopaths. The Federal Reserve has aided and abetted this takeover. Their monetary manipulations have resulted in this deformity. Psychopaths always go too far. The American middle class has been murdered. Decades of declining real wages have left them virtually penniless, in debt up to their eyeballs, angry, frustrated, and unable to jump start our moribund economy by buying more Chinese produced crap. Yellen, her Wall Street puppeteers, and the corporate titans should enjoy those record profits and record stock market highs. It won’t last. Short-term profits will be wiped out, as long-term consequences always arrive when you least expect it. The artificial boom will lead to a real depression. Luckily for the oligarchs, most middle class Americans are already experiencing a depression and won’t notice the difference.

“True, governments can reduce the rate of interest in the short run. They can issue additional paper money. They can open the way to credit expansion by the banks. They can thus create an artificial boom and the appearance of prosperity. But such a boom is bound to collapse soon or late and to bring about a depression.” – Ludwig von Mises