HAVE YOU EVER ALMOST KILLED YOURSELF?

Avalon mentioned my “fix it” prowess the other day in a seperate thread. It is clear to me and many others that I will never make it as an electrician if this finance gig doesn’t pan out. As a multitude of TBPers have built their own houses, done their own plumbing, and fix their own cars, I most certainly do not fall into the category of handy.

But, the rumors that this is my pool, are unfounded. Even I couldn’t be that stupid. Or could I?

Episode #1 – The Mystery of the Ringing Doorbell

When my son Jimmy was 2 or 3 years old he was a royal terror. Every day seemed like a death match between him and the world. It was essential that he take his 2 or 3 hour nap in the afternoon so everyone could get a break. Kevin was 6 or 7 years old and his little friends would ring our doorbell all day long for him to come out and play. Every time the doorbell would ring, Jimmy would wake up from his nap and begin terrorizing the household. Avalon could have put up this sign:

Instead Avalon eventually asked her Dad to disconnect the doorbell until Jimmy grew up. A few years went by and there were no longer naps needed in the Quinn household. Avalon said we could reconnect the doorbell. Simple enough, I thought. I took  the cover off the doorbell unit on the wall and there were wires everywhere. I had no idea which wires went where, so I guessed and rehooked them. I got off the ladder and pushed the doorbell. It worked. Case closed. Another household job handled by the multi-dimensional Administrator.

At 1:00 am that night, I was awoken by the doorbell ringing. I thought WTF in my stupor. I stumbled down the stairs to see who would be at the door at 1:00 am. To my chagrin, no one was there. I went back up to bed. At 2:00 am the doorbell rang again. I started cursing and accusing kids in the neighborhood of pulling a prank. But, there were no kids in sight. The freaking doorbell was ringing itself whenever it felt like it. It went on all night periodically waking me up.

In the morning I went downstairs and it smelled like something was burning. It was the doorbell unit. I had evidently put the wrong wires in the wrong spots and short-circuited the whole thing. I disconnected it before it burst into flames and to this day, our doorbell does not work.

But this is just a warm-up for my all-time doozy. My Chevy Chase Moment.

Episode #2 – This Isn’t a Live Wire, Is It?

Shortly after moving into our house in 1995 I noticed that a bunch of other houses in the neighborhood had attic fans on their roof. It sounded like a good idea to cheaply cool off the house. We hired a guy to install it. He did all the work and it worked automatically when the temperature reached a certain level. After about a year, it stopped working. We never got it fixed. I just forgot about it.

It was February 2003 and I left for a week long trip to Oxford University in the UK while working for IKEA. While I was away a 24 inch blizzard hit Phila.

After a 12 hour ordeal getting home, I walk into the house to a bucket up in the hallway catching the dripping water from the ceiling. It seems that the wind was so intense that it blew the snow up through the attic fan and into the attic where it was melting. I was tired and pissed off. We have a tiny hole in the kids closet where you can shimy into the attic. I went up there with a bucket and a shovel to get rid of the snow. I was not a happy camper.

I vowed to block off the attic fan hole the next day. I got a big hunk of wood, wood screws and my drill and headed up into the attic. There is no light, so Avalon was on the ladder with a flashlight shining it where I needed to cover the fan. I started my project and realized there was a pesky wire leading to the attic fan. This wire was blocking me from covering the fan properly. Being a dumbass accountant, my mind told me that since the fan hadn’t worked since 1997, there was no electricity running through the wire. I told Avalon to get me my wire cutters. You might have an idea of what happened next.

As Avalon held the flashlight I cut into a live wire. A shocking development as the electricity in the whole house blew out. The only reason I’m here today is the wire cutters had rubber grips. I dropped the wire cutters and luckily didn’t step off the beam I was balanced on and fall through the ceiling ala Chevy Chase in Christmas Vacation.

Now you know how I almost killed myself and why I pay to have all my electrical work done.

Have any of you almost killed yourself due to carelessness, stupidity, or hubris?

IT WAS JUST A TRAINING ISSUE

Thank God the Conference of US Catholic Bishops was able to clear up the priest abuse issue. It was the fault of Woodstock and poor training. I guess the thousands of predator priests were out sick at the Seminary on the day they taught them to not stick their dicks into the mouths of 10 year old boys. Below is a link to the latest Catholic Heirarchy coverup. They can keep writing reports to rationalize and try to explain the indefensible. Until Bishops and Cardinals are taken away in handcuffs, I will not believe a word these corrupt evil men spew out to the public.

http://www.usccb.org/mr/causes-and-context.shtml

It takes a comedian to make this issue as clear as can be. The Catholic Church is in denial and is still in coverup mode. I hope they are losing billions in contributions. They deserve to pay dearly for their evil acts.

“Do: Give sermons, counsel your flock, preach the good word. Don’t: Molest anyone… ever!” –Stephen Colbert

 

Flawed analysis in priest report

The idea that individuals are responsible before God for their sins and before the law for their crimes is nearly universal.

But a report released last week that explores the context and causes of child sexual abuse by priests in this country at times seems to downplay personal responsibility and lays the blame on the permissive society of the 1960s and 1970s. That’s a shame, and it calls for a firm and quick response from the church itself.

The report, commissioned by the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, was undercut by one of its main conclusions: namely, that the hippies of the ’60s and the libertines of the ’70s were in some ways responsible for some priests’ reprehensible actions.

Any attempt to deflect responsibility away from those who actually perpetrated the abuse (and those in the church hierarchy who aided and abetted it) is absolutely antithetical to the principle of individual responsibility, enshrined in both American jurisprudence and Christian theology.

Elsewhere in the report, the authors use the word “vulnerability” in describing priests who committed the crimes.

The use of that word is bitterly ironic as applied to these priests. It was they who found and abused their young, truly vulnerable victims. And priests are called to rise above sin, not descend to its most disturbing fringe.

The report also makes a distinction between those priests who preyed on teenagers and those who abused prepubescent children. While that may matter to the psychiatrists who diagnosed and treated them, it is of no comfort to a 14-year-old abuse victim that his attacker was not, technically, a pedophile, but some other classification of deviant.

In explaining the downward trend of such incidents since the mid-1980s, the report points to the victims’ advocates groups calling for justice and tougher responses to abuse by bishops.

But for far too long, Catholic leaders looked the other way. Many people, male and female, gay and straight, came of age in the decades marked by changing mores. However, very few of them ever decided, even at their most promiscuous, to sexually abuse a minor. Too many priests did. And they got away with it for far too long.

The value of this study is in its painstaking and quantitive analysis of the scandal. Unfortunately, some of its conclusions are lacking the rigor of its statistical models.

What is called for now is a response from the Catholic Church that recognizes the role of personal responsibility — for priests and for members of the church hierarchy who allowed these acts to go on for decades.

Church Report Cites Social Tumult in Priest Scandals

By LAURIE GOODSTEIN
Published: May 17, 2011

A five-year study commissioned by the nation’s Roman Catholic bishops to provide a definitive answer to what caused the church’s sexual abuse crisis has concluded that neither the all-male celibate priesthood nor homosexuality were to blame.

Instead, the report says, the abuse occurred because priests who were poorly prepared and monitored, and were under stress, landed amid the social and sexual turmoil of the 1960s and ’70s.

Known occurrences of sexual abuse of minors by priests rose sharply during those decades, the report found, and the problem grew worse when the church’s hierarchy responded by showing more care for the perpetrators than the victims.

The “blame Woodstock” explanation has been floated by bishops since the church was engulfed by scandal in the United States in 2002 and by Pope Benedict XVI after it erupted in Europe in 2010.

But this study is likely to be regarded as the most authoritative analysis of the scandal in the Catholic Church in America. The study, initiated in 2006, was conducted by a team of researchers at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York City at a cost of $1.8 million. About half was provided by the bishops, with additional money contributed by Catholic organizations and foundations. The National Institute of Justice, the research agency of the United States Department of Justice, supplied about $280,000.

The report was released Wednesday by the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops in Washington, but the Religion News Service published an account of the report on its Web site on Tuesday. A copy of the report was also obtained by The New York Times. The bishops have said they hope the report will advance the understanding and prevention of child sexual abuse in society at large.

The researchers concluded that it was not possible for the church, or for anyone, to identify abusive priests in advance. Priests who abused minors have no particular “psychological characteristics,” “developmental histories” or mood disorders that distinguished them from priests who had not abused, the researchers found.

Since the scandal broke, conservatives in the church have blamed gay priests for perpetrating the abuse, while liberals have argued that the all-male, celibate culture of the priesthood was the cause. This report will satisfy neither flank.

The report notes that homosexual men began entering the seminaries “in noticeable numbers” from the late 1970s through the 1980s. By the time this cohort entered the priesthood, in the mid-1980s, the reports of sexual abuse of minors by priests began to drop and then to level off. If anything, the report says, the abuse decreased as more gay priests began serving the church.

Many more boys than girls were victimized, the report says, not because the perpetrators were gay, but simply because the priests had more access to boys than to girls, in parishes, schools and extracurricular activities.

In one of the most counterintuitive findings, the report says that fewer than 5 percent of the abusive priests exhibited behavior consistent with pedophilia, which it defines as a “psychiatric disorder that is characterized by recurrent fantasies, urges and behaviors about prepubescent children.

“Thus, it is inaccurate to refer to abusers as ‘pedophile priests,’ ” the report says.

That finding is likely to prove controversial, in part because the report employs a definition of “prepubescent” children as those age 10 and under. Using this cutoff, the report found that only 22 percent of the priests’ victims were prepubescent.

The American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders classifies a prepubescent child as generally age 13 or younger. If the John Jay researchers had used that cutoff, a vast majority of the abusers’ victims would have been considered prepubescent.

The report, “The Causes and Context of Sexual Abuse of Minors by Catholic Priests in the United States, 1950-2002,” is the second produced by researchers at John Jay College. The first, on the “nature and scope” of the problem, was released in 2004.

Even before seeing it, victims advocates attacked the report as suspect because it relies on data provided by the church’s dioceses and religious orders.

Anne Barrett Doyle, the co-director of BishopAccountability.org, a Web site that compiles reports on abuse cases, said, “There aren’t many dioceses where prosecutors have gotten involved, but in every single instance there’s a vast gap — a multiplier of two, three or four times — between the numbers of perpetrators that the prosecutors find and what the bishops released.”

David Clohessy, national director of the Chicago-based Survivors Network of those Abused by Priests, said that while the report contained no surprises, it had nonetheless been a disappointment because it did not include recommendations for far-reaching reforms, including limiting the power of bishops. Mr. Clohessy said this was critical because bishops had covered up many instances of sexual abuse by priests in the past.

“Predictably and conveniently, the bishops have funded a report that says what they’ve said all along, and what they wanted to hear back,” he said. “Fundamentally, they’ve found that they needn’t even consider any substantive changes.”

Robert M. Hoatson, a priest and a founder of Road to Recovery, which offers counseling and referrals to victims, said the idea that the sexual and social upheavals of past decades were to blame for the abuse of children was an attempt to shift responsibility from church leaders. Mr. Hoatson said he had been among those who had been abused.“It deflects responsibility from the bishops and puts it on to a sociological problem,” he said. “This is a people problem. It wasn’t because of the ’70s, and it wasn’t the ’60s, and it wasn’t because of the 1450s. This was something individuals did.”

Kristine Ward, the chairwoman of the National Survivor Advocates Coalition, said the cultural explanation did not appear to explain why abuse cases within the Catholic church have shaken places from Australia and Ireland to South America. “Does the culture of the U.S. in the 1960s explain that? It’s hard to believe,” she said.

William Donohue, president of the Catholic League, a conservative Catholic group, however said he believes permissiveness in the church in the 1960s and 1970s – particularly at seminaries – had been a significant reason for the rise in sexual abuse. Mr. Donohue said that while he generally supported the report’s findings, he believed that the study seemed to have purposefully avoided linking abuse cases with the increase in the number of gay men who became priests during the 1960s and 1970s. “The authors go through all sorts of contortions to deny the obvious – that obviously, homosexuality was at work,” Mr. Donohue said.

In Philadelphia, where a grand jury in February found that as many as 37 priests suspected of behavior ranging from sexual abuse to inappropriate actions were still serving in ministry. The archdiocese initially rejected the grand jury’s findings, but soon suspended 26 priests from ministry.

An essay in the Catholic magazine Commonweal last week by Ana Maria Catanzaro, who heads the Archdiocese of Philadelphia’s sexual-abuse review board, which is supposed to advise the archdiocese on how to handle abuse cases, said that the board was shocked to learn about the dozens of cases uncovered by the grand jury. Her essay raised questions about whether bishops provide accurate data even to their own, in-house review boards.

Still, the John Jay report says that when it comes to analyzing the incidence and causes of sexual abuse, “No organization has undertaken a study of itself in the manner of the Catholic Church.”

Because there are no comparable studies conducted by other institutions, religious or secular, the report says, “It is impossible to accurately compare the rate of sexual abuse within the Catholic Church to rates of abuse in other organizations.”

IT’S 1977 AGAIN

With the world ending this weekend, I thought it would be a good idea to look back in history. The year was 1977 and this is what was happening.

Sports

NBA: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Philadelphia 76ers Score: 4-2
NCAA Football: Notre Dame Record: 11-1-0
Heisman Trophy: Earl Campbell, Texas, RB points: 1,547
Stanley Cup: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins Series: 4-0
Super Bowl XI: Oakland Raiders vs.Minnesota Vikings Score: 32-14
US Open Golf: Hubert Green Score: 278 Course: Southern Hills CC Location: Tulsa, OK
World Series: New York Yankeesvs. LA Dodgers Series: 4-2

Popular Songs

1.”You Don’t Have to Be a Star” … Marilyn McCoo
and Billy Davis Jr.
2.”You Make Me Feel Like Dancing” … Leo Sayer
3.”I Wish” … Stevie Wonder
4.”Car Wash” … Rose Royce
5.”Torn Between Two Lovers” … Mary MacGregor
6.”Blinded By the Light” … Manfred Mann’s Earth Band
7.”New Kid in Town” … Eagles
8.”Love Theme from ‘A Star is Born'” … Barbra Streisand
9.”Rich Girl” … Daryl Hall and John Oates
10.”Dancing Queen” … ABBA

Popular Movies

1. Star Wars
2. Rocky
3. Smokey and the Bandit
4. A Star Is Born
5. King Kong
6. The Deep
7. Silver Streak
8. The Enforcer
9. Close Encounters of the Third Kind
10. In Search of Noah’s Ark

Academy Awards

Best Picture: “Annie Hall”
Best Director: Woody Allen … “Annie Hall””
Best Actor: Richard Dreyfuss … “The Goodbye Girl”
Best Actress:Diane Keaton … “Annie Hall”

Grammy Awards

Record of the Year: “Hotel California” … The Eagles
Best Song: “You Light Up My Life” … Joe Brooks
Best Album: “Rumours” … Fleetwood Mac
Male Vocalist: James Taylor … “Handy Man
Female Vocalist: Barbra Streisand … “Love theme from ‘A Star Is Born’ (Evergreen)”

  • Most Popular Books

    Fiction:
    1. “The Silmarillion” by J.R.R. Tolkien
    2. “The Thorn Birds” by Colleen McCullough
    3. “Illusions” by Richard Bach
    4. “The Honourable Schoolboy” by John Le Carre
    5. “Oliver’s Story” by Erich Segal

    Nonfiction
    1. “Roots” by Alex Haley
    2. “Looking Out for #1” by Robert Ringer
    3. “All Things Wise and Wonderful” by James Herriot
    4. “Your Erroneous Zones” by Dr. Wayne Dyer
    5. “The Book of Lists” by David Wallechinsky

    Most Popular Television Shows

    1. Laverne & Shirley (ABC)
    2. Happy Days (ABC)
    3. Three’s Company (ABC)
    4. 60 Minutes (CBS)
    5. Charlie’s Angels (ABC)
    6. All in the Family (CBS)
    7. Little House on the Prairie (NBC)
    8. Alice (CBS)
    9. M*A*S*H (CBS)
    10. One Day at a Time (CBS)

  •  

    What got me reminiscing about 1977 was the chart below. On an inflation adjusted basis, the median home price in the U.S. today is exactly the same as it was in 1977. OUCH!!!

    And that isn’t even the bad news. Home prices are falling rapidly and we should be back to 1972 in no time. Even a meathead could see it.

    The US real estate market continues to struggle. For some perspective, today’s top chart illustrates the US median price (adjusted for inflation) of a single-family home over the past 41 years while today’s bottom chart presents the annual percent change in home prices (also adjusted for inflation). Today’s chart illustrates that, prior to the financial crisis, the inflation-adjusted median home price rarely declined more than 5% in one year (gray shading). It is also very important to note that due to a large number of distressed properties, a high unemployment rate and stagnant wages, the inflation-adjusted median home price has declined 7.9% over the past year — an annual decline larger than any that occurred during the 35 years prior to the financial crisis.

    IT’S THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT (AND I FEEL FINE)

     
    Let’s get this party started. This is our last day on this earth, so what better song to start our day with. TBP should go out in a blaze of glory, shit throwing, and the return of Smokey.
     
    Here is some background about the song.

    The track is known for its quick flying lyrics beginning with four apocalyptic references:

    • Earthquake: An earthquake accompanies the opening of the sixth seal in the Book of Revelation, and earthquakes are noted as signs of the impending apocalypse in the Synoptic Gospels.
    • Birds: In the Alfred Hitchcock film, The Birds, a character associates the birds with the end of the world, referencing Old Testament scripture.
    • Snakes: In Ancient Egyptian religion, the god Apep, represented as a snake, made daily attempts to devour the sun. The Greek name for this god has been given to the Near-Earth asteroid 99942 Apophis.
    • Aeroplane: The modern prospect of Nuclear holocaust.

    It continues with what appears to be a stream of consciousness rant with a number of diverse references, including a quartet of individuals with the initials “L.B.” (Leonard Bernstein, Leonid Brezhnev, Lenny Bruce and Lester Bangs.) In a 1990s interview with Musician magazine, R.E.M. singer Michael Stipe claimed that the “L.B.” references came from a dream he had in which he found himself at a party surrounded by famous people who all shared these initials.

    That’s great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane –
    Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn. World serves its own needs, dummy serve your own needs. Feed it off an aux, speed, grunt no, strength, the Ladder structure clatter with fear, fight, down height. Wire in a fire, representing seven games and a government for hire and a combat site. left of west and coming in a hurry with the furies breathing down your neck. Team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered, crop. Look at that low playing! Fine then. Uh oh, overflow, population common food but it’ll do, Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves its own needs, listen to your heart bleed, dummy with the rapture and the revered and the right, right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright light, feeling pretty psyched.

    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine

    Six o’clock – TV hour. Don’t get caught in foreign towers.Slash and burn, return, listen to yourself churn. Lock it in uniform and book burning, blood letting. Every motive escalate. Automotive incinerate.Light a candle, light a motive. step down, step down. Watch your heel crush, crushed. Uh-oh, this means no fear- cavalier. Renegade steer clear! A tournament, a tournament, a tournament of lies.
    Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives and I decline.

    (chorus)
    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    (it’s time I had some time alone)
    It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine
    it’s time I had some time alone)
    I feel fine

    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    (it’s time I had some time alone)
    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    (it’s time I had some time alone)
    It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine
    (it’s time I had some time alone)

    The other night I dreamt of knives, continental drift divide.Mountains sit in a line. Leonard Bernstein, Leonid Brezhnev, Lenny Bruce and Lester Bangs.
    Birthday party, cheesecake, jelly bean, boom!
    You symbiotic, patriotic,
    slam, but neck, right? Right

    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    (it’s time I had some time alone)
    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    (it’s time I had some time alone)
    It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine
    (it’s time I had some time alone)

    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine
    (it’s time I had some time alone)

    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    (it’s time I had some time alone)
    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    (it’s time I had some time alone)
    It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine
    (it’s time I had some time alone)

    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    (it’s time I had some time alone)
    It’s the end of the world as we know it
    (it’s time I had some time alone)
    It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine
    (it’s time I had some time alone)
    (fade)

     

    TBP POLL #2012

    Obama 2012 Spoof Ad

    It seems that potential contenders for the Republican nomination are dropping like flies. Since it evidently takes $1 billion to get elected president in the U.S., anyone who doesn’t get in the race in the next few weeks will be shit out of luck. The MSM has already concluded that Obama will be re-elected. I’ve concluded that he will not be re-elected. The economy will fall to pieces between now and November 2012. Whoever runs against Obama will win. There is no inkling of a 3rd party candidacy. So we have a three part poll today.

     

    Who will be the Republican nominee in 2012?

     

    1. Mitt Romney
    2. Tim Pawlenty
    3. Newt Gingrich
    4. Michelle Bachman
    5. Ron Paul
    6. Mitch Daniels
    7. John Huntsman
    8. Sarah Palin
    9. Herman Cain
    10. Jeb Bush
    11. Smokey (the real reason he left TBP?)

     

    Who has the best chance to beat Obama in 2012?

     

    Does it matter who is elected President in 2012?

    QUOTES OF THE DAY

    In America the young are always ready to give to those who are older than themselves the full benefits of their inexperience.
    Oscar Wilde

    I was thinking about how people seem to read the Bible a whole lot more as they get older; then it dawned on me – they’re cramming for their final exam.
    George Carlin

    Getting older is no problem. You just have to live long enough.
    Groucho Marx

    As you get older it is harder to have heroes, but it is sort of necessary.
    Ernest Hemingway

    Getting old is a fascination thing. The older you get, the older you want to get.
    Ralph Waldo Emerson

    Like everyone else who makes the mistake of getting older, I begin each day with coffee and obituaries.
    Bill Cosby

    The older you get the stronger the wind gets – and it’s always in your face.
    Pablo Picasso

    The older I grow the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom.
    H. L. Mencken

    The older I get the more wisdom I find in the ancient rule of taking first things first. A process which often reduces the most complex human problem to a manageable proportion.
    Dwight D. Eisenhower

    As I grow older, I pay less attention to what men say. I just watch what they do.
    Andrew Carnegie

    You will find as you grow older that courage is the rarest of all qualities to be found in public life.
    Benjamin Disraeli

    Old age is fifteen years older than I am.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes

    Older men declare war. But it is the youth that must fight and die.
    Herbert Hoover

    TEACHERS UNIONS & POLITICIANS HAVE DESTROYED US EDUCATION SYSTEM

    There are many excellent teachers in the U.S. There also many average or below average teachers. The teachers unions throughout the country don’t care whether their members are good or bad teachers. As long as they pay their dues, the union will do anything they can to keep anyone from making schools better. Teachers unions only care about teachers, not about educating our children. On top of being responsible for the decline in American education, these teachers are bankrupting our states and localities with their ridiculous healthcare and pension benefits. I judge people by the results of their actions. The teachers unions across the country have failed our children miserably. The results speak for themselves.

    The Failure of American Schools

    Who better to lead an educational revolution than Joel Klein, the prosecutor who took on the software giant Microsoft? But in his eight years as chancellor of New York City’s school system, the nation’s largest, Klein learned a few painful lessons of his own—about feckless politicians, recalcitrant unions, mediocre teachers, and other enduring obstacles to school reform. 

    By Joel Klein

    Above: Joel Klein in Brooklyn on the first day of school, two months before he resigned as chancellor
    Image credit: Ramin Talaie/Corbis
     

    Three years ago, in a New York Times article detailing her bid to become head of the American Federation of Teachers union, Randi Weingarten boasted that despite my calls for “radical reform” to New York City’s school system, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and I had achieved only “incremental” change. It seemed like a strange thing to crow about, but she did have something of a point. New York over the past nine years has experienced what Robert Schwartz, the academic dean of Harvard’s education school, has described as “the most dramatic and thoughtful set of large-scale reforms going on anywhere in the country,” resulting in gains such as a nearly 20-point jump in graduation rates. But the city’s school system is still not remotely where it needs to be. 

    That story holds more than true for the country at large. Nearly three decades after A Nation at Risk, the groundbreaking report by the National Commission on Excellence in Education, warned of “a rising tide of mediocrity that threatens our very future as a Nation and a people,” the gains we have made in improving our schools are negligible—even though we have doubled our spending (in inflation-adjusted dollars) on K–12 public education. On America’s latest exams (the National Assessment of Educational Progress), one-third or fewer of eighth-grade students were proficient in math, science, or reading. Our high-school graduation rate continues to hover just shy of 70 percent, according to a 2010 report by the Editorial Projects in Education Research Center, and many of those students who do graduate aren’t prepared for college. ACT, the respected national organization that administers college-admissions tests, recently found that 76 percent of our high-school graduates “were not adequately prepared academically for first-year college courses.” 


    Video: Joel Klein explains the twisted politics of New York education in a conversation with Atlantic editor James Bennet 


     

    While America’s students are stuck in a ditch, the rest of the world is moving ahead. The World Economic Forum ranks us 48th in math and science education. On international math tests, the United States is near the bottom of industrialized countries (the 34 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), and we’re in the middle in science and reading. Similarly, although we used to have one of the top percentages of high-school and college graduates among the OECD countries, we’re now in the basement for high-school and the middle for college graduates. And these figures don’t take into account the leaps in educational attainment in China, Singapore, and many developing countries. 

    During the first three-quarters of the 20th century, America developed an enormously successful middle class, first by making high school universal, and then, after the Second World War, by making college much more available, through the GI Bill and other scholarship programs. As a result, our educational attainment kept pace with our strong technological advancement. But that’s changed markedly since 1980, and now our technological progress is advancing more rapidly than our educational attainment. From 1960 to 1980, our supply of college graduates increased at almost 4 percent a year; since then, the increase has been about half as fast. The net effect is that we’re rapidly moving toward two Americas—a wealthy elite, and an increasingly large underclass that lacks the skills to succeed. 

    This division tears at the very fabric of our society. Nevertheless, there’s little national urgency to fix its underlying causes. Unlike a bad economy, poor educational achievement creeps up on us. Right now, if you were running for office, would you be more concerned with unemployment or education? Also, unlike terrorism, an educational crisis has a different impact on the powerful than it does on most of society. Their children, who are in private schools or elite public schools, receive a decent education, so it’s hard to get them fully engaged in the broader national debate. Plus, unlike in health care, for example, where we perceive the quality of care to be good and worry instead about controlling costs and covering the uninsured, in education, despite massive increases in expenditure, we don’t see improved results. That leads too many people to suspect that poverty is destiny, that schools can make only a small difference, and that therefore we’re unable to fix this problem, regardless of its seriousness. So why try? 

    If the forces behind reform seem scattered and weak, those defending the status quo—the unions, the politicians, the bureaucrats, and the vendors—are well organized and well financed. Having spent eight years trying to ignite a revolution in New York City’s schools under Bloomberg’s leadership, I am convinced that without a major realignment of political forces, we won’t get the dramatic improvements our children need. 

    To comprehend the depth of the problem, consider one episode that still shocks me. Starting in 2006, under federal law, the State of New York was required to test students in grades three through eight annually in math and English. The results of those tests would enable us, for the first time, to analyze year-to-year student progress and tie it to individual teacher performance—a metric known in the field as “teacher value-added.” In essence, you hold constant other factors—where the students start from the prior year, demographics, class size, teacher length of service, and so on—and, based on test results, seek to isolate the individual teacher’s contribution to a student’s progress. Some teachers, for example, move their class forward on average a quarter-year more than expected; others, a quarter-year less. Value-added isn’t a perfect metric, but it’s surely worth considering as part of an overall teacher evaluation. 

    After we developed data from this metric, we decided to factor them into the granting of tenure, an award that is made after three years and that provides virtual lifetime job security. Under state law at the time, we were free to use these data. But after the New York City teachers union, the United Federation of Teachers, objected, I proposed that the City use value-added numbers only for the top and bottom 20 percent of teachers: the top 20 percent would get positive credit; the bottom would lose credit. And even then, principals would take value-added data into account only as part of a much larger, comprehensive tenure review. Even with these limitations, the UFT said “No way,” and headed to Albany to set up a legislative roadblock. 

    Seemingly overnight, a budget amendment barring the use of test data in tenure decisions materialized in the heavily Democratic State Assembly. Joe Bruno, then the Republican majority leader in the State Senate, assured me that this amendment would not pass: he controlled the majority and would make sure that it remained united in opposition. Fast-forward a few weeks: the next call I got from Senator Bruno was to say, apologetically, that several of his Republican colleagues had caved to the teachers union, which had threatened reprisals in the next election if they didn’t get on board. 

    As a result, even when making a lifetime tenure commitment, under New York law you could not consider a teacher’s impact on student learning. That Kafkaesque outcome demonstrates precisely the way the system is run: for the adults. The school system doesn’t want to change, because it serves the needs of the adult stakeholders quite well, both politically and financially. 

    Let’s start with the politicians. From their point of view, the school system can be enormously helpful, providing patronage hires, school-placement opportunities for connected constituents, the means to get favored community and business programs adopted and funded, and politically advantageous ties to schools and parents in their communities. 

    During my maiden testimony before the State Assembly, I said that we would end patronage hires, which were notorious under the old system of 32 school districts, run by 32 school boards and 32 superintendents (a 2002 state bill granting Bloomberg mayoral control of the city’s schools abolished the 32 boards). At my mention of patronage, the legislators, like Captain Renault in Casablanca, purported to be “shocked.” Nevertheless, after the hearing, when I went to thank committee members, one took me aside and said: “Listen, they’re trying to get rid of a principal in my district who runs a Democratic club for us. If you protect him, you’ll never have a problem with me.” This kind of encounter was not rare. 

    Similarly, I faced repeated requests for “constituent services,” meaning good school placements for wired constituents. After we reorganized the system and minimized the power of the 32 local superintendents—the go-to people for politicians under the past regime—a local official called me and asked, “Whom do I call for constituent services after your reorg?” I replied, “What’s that?” Impatiently, he asked, “How do I get a kid into a school when I need to?” I jokingly answered, “Oh, we must have left out that office in the reorg” (actually thinking, silly me, that the school system should use equitable rules for admission). He said, “Go fuck yourself,” and hung up. Despite our constant efforts, or because of them, this kind of political pressure—and payback if we weren’t responsive—happened at every level. Even more important, politicians can reap enormous political support from the unions representing school employees. The two national unions—the American Federation of Teachers and the National Education Association—together have some 4.7 million members, who pay hundreds of millions of dollars in national, state, and local dues, much of which is funneled to political causes. Teachers unions consistently rank among the top spenders on politics. 

    Moreover, millions of union members turn out when summoned, going door-to-door, staffing phone banks, attending rallies, and the like. Teachers are extremely effective messengers to parents, community groups, faith-based groups, and elected officials, and the unions know how to deploy them well. And just as happy unions can give a politician massive clout, unhappy unions—well, just ask Eva Moskowitz, a Democrat who headed the City Council Education Committee when I became chancellor in 2002. Brilliant, savvy, ambitious, often a pain in my neck, and atypically fearless for an elected official, she was widely expected to be elected Manhattan borough president in 2005. Until, that is, she held hearings on the New York City teachers-union contract—an extraordinary document, running on for hundreds of pages, governing who can teach what and when, who can be assigned to hall-monitor or lunchroom duty and who can’t, who has to be given time off to do union work during the school day, and so on. Truth is, the contract defied parody. So when Moskowitz exposed its ridiculousness, the UFT, then headed by Randi Weingarten, made sure that Moskowitz’s run for borough president came up short. After that, other elected officials would say to me, “I agree with you, but I ain’t gonna get Eva’d.” 

    In short, politicians—especially Democratic politicians—generally do what the unions want. And the unions, in turn, are very clear about what that is. They want, first, happy members, so that those who run the unions get reelected; and, second, more members, so their power, money, and influence grow. As Albert Shanker, the late, iconic head of the UFT, once pointedly put it, “When schoolchildren start paying union dues, that’s when I’ll start representing the interests of schoolchildren.” And what do the members want? Employees understandably want lifetime job security (tenure), better pay regardless of performance (seniority pay), less work (short days, long holidays, lots of sick days), and the opportunity to retire early (at, say, 55) with a good lifetime pension and full health benefits; for their part, the retirees want to make sure their benefits keep coming and grow through cost-of-living increases. The result: whether you work hard or don’t, get good results with kids or don’t, teach in a shortage area like math or special education or don’t, or in a hard-to-staff school in a poor community or not, you get paid the same, unless you’ve been around for another year, in which case you get more. Not bad for the adults. 

    But it’s just disastrous for the kids in our schools. While out-of-school environment certainly affects student achievement, President Obama was on to something in 2008 when he said: “The single most important factor in determining [student] achievement is not the color of [students’] skin or where they come from. It’s not who their parents are or how much money they have. It’s who their teacher is.” Yet, rather than create a system that attracts and rewards excellent teachers—and that imposes consequences for ineffective or lazy ones—we treat all teachers as if they were identical widgets and their performance didn’t matter. 

    In fact, notwithstanding union rhetoric that “tenure is merely due process,” firing a public-school teacher for non-performance is virtually impossible. In New York City, which has some 55,000 tenured teachers, we were able to fire only half a dozen or so for incompetence in a given year, even though we devoted significant resources to this effort. 

    The extent of this “no one gets fired” mentality is difficult to overstate—or even adequately describe. Steven Brill wrote an eye-opening piece in The New Yorker about the “rubber rooms” in New York City, where teachers were kept, while doing no work, pending resolution of the charges against them—mostly for malfeasance, like physical abuse or embezzlement, but also for incompetence. The teachers got paid regardless. (To add insult to injury, these cases ultimately were heard by an arbitrator whom the union had to first approve.) Before we stopped this charade—unfortunately by returning many of these teachers to the classroom, as the arbitrators likely would have required—it used to cost the City about $35 million a year. 

    In addition, more than 1,000 teachers get full pay while performing substitute-teacher and administrative duties because no principal wants to hire them full-time. This practice costs more than $100 million annually. 

    Perhaps the most shocking example of the City’s having to pay for teachers who don’t work involves several teachers accused of sexual misconduct—including at least one who was found guilty—whom the union-approved arbitrators refuse to terminate. Although the City is required to put them back in the classroom, it understandably refuses to do so. And the union has never sued the City to have these teachers reinstated, even though it knows it could readily win. It has also never helped figure out how to get these deadbeats off the payroll, where they may remain for decades at full pay, followed by a lifetime pension. No one—and the union means no one—gets fired. 

    Next, consider the consequences of the ubiquitous practice of paying the same for math and physical-education teachers. Given the other job opportunities for talented mathematicians—but not for phys-ed teachers—the same salary will attract many more of the latter than the former. It’s simple supply and demand. But when you’re short of qualified math teachers—as virtually every major urban school district is—poor kids with the greatest needs invariably get cheated, because most teachers prefer to teach highly motivated kids who live in safe communities, and whose parents will contribute private money to the school. The result: too few effective math and science teachers in high-poverty schools. 

    Finally, coming on top of these other senseless policies is the remarkable way that benefits and seniority drive overall teacher compensation. It’s possible for a teacher in New York City to retire at 55 and draw down an annual pension of more than $60,000, plus lifetime health benefits for herself and her family. The pension is not subject to New York State or local taxes and goes up with cost-of-living increases. The huge value of this lifetime stream of benefits is rarely mentioned when we talk about teachers’ compensation, but the teachers are well aware of it and act rationally in response to it. What we end up with is both a form of lock-in for employees and an enormous long-term financial exposure for the taxpayers. 

    The impact of the lock-in shapes the entire compensation system, because the “big” money comes only after a certain number of years—in New York City, for example, many teachers get their full pension after working 25 years, and a far smaller pension if they work for only 24 years. As a result of backloaded policies like this, after 10 years fewer than 1 percent of teachers leave the system, and after 15 years only about 0.1 percent leave. Many have candidly told me they are burned out, but they can’t afford to leave until their pension fully vests. So they go through the motions until they can retire with the total package. 

    Aggravating the perverse incentive of the benefit lock-in is the nature of almost all pay increases in public education, which are either automatic if you stay another year or so, or take 30 college credits; or across-the-board percentage raises—for example, 10 percent over three years, meaning that every veteran teacher making $80,000 gets an $8,000 increase, while every beginning teacher making $40,000 gets a $4,000 increase. 

    None of these pay increases makes sense. Why pay someone more for simply working another year or for taking a few courses? Starting last year, Mayor Bloomberg refused to give teachers in New York a raise, because he was facing budget cuts. But the overall pay for teachers still went up nearly 3.5 percent automatically, simply for longevity and college credits. (According to a Department of Education internal analysis, the average NYC teacher works fewer than seven hours a day for 185 days and costs the city $110,000—$71,000 in salary, $23,000 in pensions, and $16,000 in health and other benefits.) And why give all teachers making $80,000, or more, a 10 percent raise? They’re not going to leave, since they’re close to vesting their lifetime pensions. By contrast, increasing starting salaries by $8,000 (rather than $4,000) would help attract and retain better new teachers. But because of seniority, we can’t do it that way. 

    Now consider the financial burden that comes with providing lifetime benefits. Given the time between first putting aside the money to fund such a “long-tail exposure” and having to begin paying it, the amount “reserved” by the employer necessarily depends on a host of imprecise assumptions—about the rate of return that the money invested in the pension fund will earn, about how long employees will live, and even about how much overtime employees will work during their last few years, which is normally included in calculations of the amount of the pension. Each dollar set aside this year to cover the ultimate pension exposure must be taken from what would otherwise be current operating dollars. 

    Consequently, elected officials have had every incentive to make extraordinarily optimistic assumptions about the pension plan—or to simply underfund it—so they can put as little as possible into the reserve. Unfortunately, but predictably, that’s exactly what has happened: most states “assumed” they would get an average 8 percent return on their pension reserves, when in fact they were getting significantly less. Over the past 10 years, for example, New York City’s pension funds earned an average of just 2.5 percent. Now virtually every pension plan in America that covers teachers has huge unfunded liabilities. A recent study by the Manhattan Institute estimated the total current shortfall at close to $1 trillion. There’s only one way to pay for that: take the money from current and future operating budgets, robbing today’s children to pay tomorrow’s pensions. In NYC, for example, the portion of the overall budget set aside for education pensions went from $455 million in 2002 to $2.6 billion in 2011, most of it for teachers. Not surprisingly, retirees remain politically vigilant, and vote at much higher levels than active teachers in union elections (50 percent versus 24 percent in New York’s last UFT election). 

    During my tenure, I fought to break this institutional stranglehold of defenders of the status quo. I did so because I believed that our kids are not getting the education they deserve, that we have clear examples showing dramatically better results, and that we won’t achieve those results if we just keep tinkering. Since 2007, my colleague Michelle Rhee, in Washington, D.C., has been making the same noises. The response, often from friends as well as opponents, was that we were unrealistic: complex systems don’t change easily, impatience is immature, and directly challenging the educational establishment is not a winning strategy. “You need to be more collaborative and less controversial,” we were repeatedly admonished. 

    That’s bad advice. Collaboration is the elixir of the status-quo crowd. Consider one of the most cherished mantras in public education today—“We’ll never fix education until we fix poverty.” This lets the school system off the hook: “We can’t do too much with these poor kids, so don’t blame us (but give us more money).” Sure, money, a stable family, and strong values typically make educating a child easier. But we also now know that, keeping those things constant, we can get dramatically different outcomes with the same kid, based on his or her education. Texas and California, for example, have very similar demographics. Nevertheless, even though Texas spends slightly less per pupil than does California, it outperforms California on all four national tests, across demographic groups. The gap is around a year’s worth of learning. That’s big. And the gaps are even bigger when we compare similar demographic groups in large urban districts. Low-income black students in Boston or New York, for example, are several years ahead of those in Detroit or Los Angeles on the national exams. 

    At the individual school level, the differences can be breathtaking. One charter school in New York City, Harlem Success Academy 1, has students who are demographically almost identical to those attending nearby community and charter schools, yet it gets entirely different results. Harlem Success has 88 percent of its students proficient in reading and 95 percent in math; six other nearby schools have an average of 31 percent proficient in reading and 39 percent in math. And according to the most-recent scores on New York State fourth-grade science tests, Success had more than 90 percent of its students at the highest (advanced) level, while the city had only 43 percent at advanced, and Success’s black students outperformed white students at more than 700 schools across the state. In fact, Success now performs at the same level as the gifted-and-talented schools in New York City—all of which have demanding admissions requirements, while Success randomly selects its students, mostly poor and minority, by lottery. 

    These school-level differences ultimately reflect the effectiveness of a child’s particular teachers. Eric Hanushek, an economist at Stanford, has shown that, while some teachers get a year and a half’s worth of learning into a year, others get in only half a year’s worth of learning with essentially the same students. Imagine the cumulative impact of the best teachers over 13 years of elementary and secondary education. Indeed, even if California raised its performance to Texas’s level, Detroit to Boston’s, the neighborhood schools in Harlem to Harlem Success’s—that is to say, if our least effective teachers performed at the level of our most effective—the impact would be seismic. 

    Critics are strangely eager to discredit these differences. Writing last year in The New York Review of Books, the educational historian Diane Ravitch argued that schools like Harlem Success aren’t the answer, because, as a group, charter schools in the U.S. don’t outperform public schools. To make her case, Ravitch relied on a study by Margaret Raymond at Stanford; but curiously, Ravitch failed to mention that Raymond applied precisely the same analysis to New York City (where the school district was atypically supportive of charters), and found that charter schools there were getting significantly better reading and math results with their students than were comparable traditional public schools. And even Ravitch had to acknowledge that some charter schools are getting “amazing results.” If that’s the case, then instead of relying on the kind of group-think that pits charter schools against non-charter schools, shouldn’t we be asking why some schools get much better results, and focus on how we can replicate them? 

    Several recent developments offer some hope. In the past year, 42 states, as well as the District of Columbia and the U.S. Virgin Islands, have agreed to adopt a new set of highly demanding core standards in English and math to replace the current state-by-state standards. The Obama administration has also granted two consortia of states $330 million to design tests aligned with these new standards. As a result, we’ll have a more realistic sense of how our kids are performing, we’ll be able to compare kids in one jurisdiction with those in another, and, most important, we’ll know that kids who graduate from high school will actually be prepared for college. 

    But we still won’t get to where we need to go unless we’re prepared to do three difficult, but essential, things: rebuild our entire K–12 system on a platform of accountability; attract more top-flight recruits into teaching; and use technology very differently to improve instruction. 

    Surprisingly enough, the best case for greater accountability was made by Albert Shanker, four years before he died, in his capacity as the leader of the American Federation of Teachers. In a truly remarkable speech to the 1993 Pew Forum on Education Reform, which I’ve never seen quoted by any teachers-union official since, Shanker said: 

    The key is that unless there is accountability, we will never get the right system. As long as there are no consequences if kids or adults don’t perform, as long as the discussion is not about education and student outcomes, then we’re playing a game as to who has the power.

     

    Two points are critical here. First, Shanker makes clear that accountability needs to be measured by “student outcomes,” which he goes on to explain must be based on progress on standardized tests. And second, he calls out the fundamental truth about the system: because it’s not anchored to outcomes, it ends up being about “who has the power,” which can then be used to serve other agendas—such as better pay, political support, or vendor contracts. 

    Accountability, in most industries or professions, usually takes two forms. First and foremost, markets impose accountability: if people don’t choose the goods or services you’re offering, you go out of business. Second, high-performing companies develop internal accountability requirements keyed to market-based demands. 

    Public education lacks both kinds of accountability. It is essentially a government-run monopoly. Whether a school does well or poorly, it will get the students it needs to stay in business, because most kids have no other choice. And that, in turn, creates no incentive for better performance, greater efficiency, or more innovation—all things as necessary in public education as they are in any other field. 

    A full-scale transition from a government-run monopoly to a competitive marketplace won’t happen quickly. But that is no reason not to begin introducing more competition. Many middle-class families have plenty of choice (even beyond private schools): they can move to another neighborhood, or are well-connected enough to navigate the system. Those families who are least powerful, however, usually get one choice: their neighborhood school. That has to change. 

    In the lower grades, we should make sure that every student has at least one alternative—and preferably several—to her neighborhood school. We implemented this strategy by opening more than 100 charter schools in high-poverty communities. Tellingly, almost 40,000 families chose these new schools, and another 40,000 are on waiting lists. The traditional schools, as well as their employees and the unions, are screaming bloody murder, something vividly depicted in The Lottery, a recent documentary that shows community agitators brought in by the union to oppose giving public-school space to the Harlem Success network. But this kind of push-back is actually a good sign: it means that the monopolists are beginning to feel the effects of competition. 

    At the middle- and high-school levels, where students are more mobile, we can also create community-based choice systems, or even citywide choice systems. In New York City, for example, high-school students now have citywide choice (with some geographic priority), and schools know they have to recruit—and compete for—students. 

    To support effective choice, moreover, we need to provide real funding equity: the money must be for the child, not the school. So if Juan goes to PS 11, which gets $20,000 as a result, then that same $20,000 must go to a KIPP charter school if Juan decides to go there. Similarly, capital funds, or space within a school building, must also follow the child—either to PS 11 or to KIPP—on equitable terms. 

    Unfortunately, the likelihood of rapidly expanding choices remains small. Witness, for example, those 40,000 families wait-listed for charter schools in New York City. By the time the City opens another 100 schools to meet that demand, at least another 40,000 families will likely be waiting. And now that the union and its allies have seen the smashing impact of the first 100 charter schools, they won’t make it any easier to open the next 100. 

    That’s why internal accountability along the lines that Shanker discussed is critical. School districts need a system to fairly evaluate the effect of schools and teachers on kids, which is the best proxy we have for assessing “consumer preference” in a largely monopolistic system. Shanker also had the right idea about how to measure outcomes: by looking at student progress on apples-to-apples metrics, rather than at whether students do well or poorly against an absolute, static index. On a four-point scale, for example, a teacher deserves credit for moving a kid from a 1 to a 2 and should lose credit for letting another kid fall from a 4 to a 3, even though a 3 is better than a 2 in an absolute sense. Some kids come to school way ahead of others, and giving the school or teacher credit for that makes no sense. But if schools or teachers have essentially the same kids, with the same challenges, and the same starting performance levels, it’s pretty easy to measure which are helping the kids make progress and which aren’t. 

    Finally, as Shanker emphasized, meaningful teacher accountability means major consequences for student outcomes. Those teachers and principals whose students do well should get substantial merit pay; those who don’t should be fired. Similarly, schools that do poorly should be replaced. Without real consequences tied to performance, the results won’t significantly change. Again, resistance to this kind of accountability is always fierce. In New York, we closed many large, overwhelmingly minority high schools that were posting abysmal graduation rates—some even below 40 percent—and replaced them with new, small high schools. Although research showed that the new schools were getting significantly better results, I wasn’t surprised when the teachers union sued us to block future closures—they want to protect their members. But I was shocked when the NAACP joined the suit. How could it defend schools that were consistently graduating fewer than half their African American children? 

    Despite the setbacks, we are seeing progress. In response to President Obama’s $4.3 billion Race to the Top Fund, which requires states to compete for big federal grants, and rewards accountability systems that measure whether teachers add value, several states—including Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Ohio—have enacted legislation moving in this direction. Under Michelle Rhee’s leadership, Washington, D.C., adopted the best of these systems with the agreement of its local and national teachers unions, including the union headed by Randi Weingarten. The District was authorized to award substantial merit pay (resulting in salaries of up to $130,000) and to fire teachers who were not performing well. Rhee fired more than 200 of them. 

    But although Weingarten’s union had agreed to the contract, it reportedly spent $1 million and mobilized huge numbers of volunteers to defeat Washington’s mayor, Adrian Fenty, when he was up for reelection two months later. That intervention surely sent a message to other reformers throughout the country: we unions talk reform, but firing incompetent teachers will never be a real part of that. 

    The second big thing we need to change is the people we attract into teaching. When McKinsey and Company compared educational performance around the world, it came to the seemingly obvious, yet often disputed, conclusion that “the quality of an education system cannot exceed the quality of its teachers”: 

    The top-performing school systems [internationally] attract more able people into the teaching profession, leading to better student outcomes … The top-performing systems we studied recruit their teachers from the top third of each cohort [that graduates] from their school system … Conversely, lower-performing school systems rarely attract the right people into teaching. The New Commission on the Skills of the American Workforce observes that, “We are now recruiting our teachers from the bottom third of high-school students going to college.”

     

    By recruiting teachers mostly from the middle and bottom of their college classes, as America has done for decades now, not only did we not get the talent we needed, but we also fostered a culture where excellence and merit don’t matter. 

    A rational compensation scheme is critical to fixing this core human-capital weakness: rather than just pay for longevity and lifetime benefits, we must reward excellence and enable the system to meet its needs. If, going forward, we eliminated all the automatic raises and promises of huge lifetime benefits, we’d have an enormous amount of money to devote to merit pay, hardship-assignment incentives, and recruiting in subjects where we have shortages. If we could front-load compensation, new teachers could get as much as $80,000 by year three or four. This would make a huge difference. If you have any doubt, just ask the talented, ambitious young teachers who come through Teach for America or comparable programs. Many leave well before they peak, even though they like the work, because their pay remains quite low in the early years—up to about $55,000—and they are unwilling to commit to staying around for 25 years to cash in on the back-loaded pay structure. 

    I once proposed a portion of this—simply eliminating the lifetime, defined-benefit pension, monetizing the savings, and then paying it to teachers in their early years—in a conversation with union officials. I was prepared to give each new teacher a choice between the current pay scale (with the existing pension) and this new pay proposal. Although no teacher would have been compelled to switch, the UFT rejected the idea as “anti-union.” But we have evidence to show that these monetary incentives can work. In Washington, D.C., Michelle Rhee negotiated a merit-based compensation system—where teachers could get paid much more in the early years. As a result, it appears, significant numbers of teachers from D.C.’s charter schools apply to teach in its traditional public schools. Only money can explain that. 

    Of course, another way to attract and retain very effective teachers would be to create more schools that work. In my experience, many of the best public-school teachers apply to high-functioning charter schools, even though they usually give up job security, and lifetime health care and pensions, while generally getting a similar or slightly higher salary (although often augmented by modest merit pay). They go because they want to be part of a successful school, where teachers are treated like professionals and not subjected to endless administrative and union micromanagement. 

    Last, to shake up the system, we must change how we use technology to deliver instruction. (This is what I’m now seeking to do at News Corporation.) The present resistance to innovation is breathtaking. Consider this story: When we replaced many large, failing high schools with more, much smaller schools, many of the new schools had only a handful of kids who wanted to take rigorous Advanced Placement courses, which can earn students college credit. Several good online programs teach the necessary course content. But in New York state, you cannot get high-school credit unless you’re taught by a live teacher (a requirement referred to as “seat time”), and these small schools didn’t have enough students to bring in an AP teacher. I approached our State Education Department in Albany, which had the authority to waive the seat-time requirement: if a kid could get college credit for passing an online AP course, surely she should be able to get high-school credit as well. 

    As soon as the UFT heard that we had requested a waiver from the state, it faxed us a letter saying, “The elimination of seat-time requirements needs to be negotiated,” making clear that if we tried to proceed, this would be war. You see, if we opened the door to online AP courses, maybe we’d end up needing fewer teachers, and that wouldn’t be good for union membership, dues, or power. I got nowhere. 

    But one of the best things we could do is hire fewer teachers and pay more to the ones we hire. And, as in any other field, technology can help get us there. If you have 5,000 math teachers, many of whom are underperforming, significantly improving overall quality is nearly impossible. But if you get the best math professors in the world—who are great teachers and who deeply understand math—and match them with great software developers, they can create sophisticated interactive programs that engage kids and empower teachers. Why not start with such a program and then let teachers supplement it differently, depending on the progress of each student? 

    That’s a whole lot easier than trying to teach the same math lesson to 30 kids, some of whom are getting it quickly and some of whom aren’t getting it at all. We now have multiple ways to teach the same lessons. As a result, we can tailor both the means and the pacing to each student. We can use digital games where kids progress based on solving increasingly difficult math problems, virtual classes that kids can take online, and tutors whom kids can work with online, as well as, of course, teachers working with large or small groups in person. The possibilities are enormous. We should be trying them all and constantly improving how we do the work. That’s exactly what New York City is doing in a pilot program called the School of One, which was designed to move from the classroom as the locus of instruction to the individual student as the focus of instruction. 

    More broadly, we need to foster a fundamental shift from a top-down, one-size-fits-all culture—mandated class-size reduction, after-school programs, and the like—to a culture that supports innovation. In New York City, we set out to change these preexisting dynamics by allowing educators and community groups—rather than the central bureaucracy—to design and run new schools to replace the failing ones. The result was a lot of innovation. For example, New York City is now piloting something called the Generation School, which uses staff time very differently and thus extends the school day and year significantly. Last year, the City also opened something called the New American Academy, where four teachers are collectively responsible for educating 60 kids, and they stay with those children from kindergarten through the fifth grade. The teachers are categorized as Master, Partner, Associate, and Apprentice, and they are paid very differently and get promoted from one level to the next based on performance as well as peer and supervisory review. 

    Change is possible. In New York City, it took a mayor willing to assume control over the system and risk significant political capital. It required time—Mayor Bloomberg and I had more than eight years together, while most urban superintendents serve for about three and a half years. It required taking risks, knowing that not every change will work out and that your critics will focus mercilessly on those that don’t. But most of all, it required building community and political support. Toward the end of my tenure, we were engaged in an enormous fight to lift the state-imposed cap on our number of charter schools—an initiative the teachers unions strongly opposed precisely because our expansion of charter schools had been so successful. In fact, six months earlier, a similar effort had gone down to defeat at the unions’ hands. But this time, the families with kids in charter schools and our allies in the community were prepared to help us fight. Philanthropic and business interests raised millions to support the mobilization effort, run ads, and hire lobbyists. We prevailed, and the cap was raised substantially. 

    Sadly, that kind of success is still exceptional. In the three decades since A Nation at Risk came out, many have echoed its cries of alarm, but few have heeded its calls for bold change. Indeed, in his 1993 Pew Forum speech, Al Shanker spoke in shockingly candid terms: 

    We are at the point that the auto industry was at a few years ago. They could see they were losing market share every year and still not believe that it really had anything to do with the quality of the product I think we will get—and deserve—the end of public education through some sort of privatization scheme if we don’t behave differently. Unfortunately, very few people really believe that yet. They talk about it, and they don’t like it, but they’re not ready to change and stop doing the things that brought us to this point.

     

    Time is running out. Without political leadership willing to take risks and build support for “radical reform,” and without a citizenry willing to insist on those reforms, our schools will continue to decline. And just as it was with Detroit, the global marketplace will be very unforgiving to a populace that doesn’t have the skills it demands. McKinsey estimates that the benefits of bringing our educational levels up to those of the highest-performing countries would have raised our gross domestic product by about $2 trillion in 2008. By the same token, every year we fail to close that gap is like living with the equivalent of a permanent national recession. Shocking as that may sound, the costs in human terms, to our nation and to the kind of people we aspire to become, will be even greater. 

    FOURTH TURNING GAINING ATTENTION

    A gentleman from another Ivy League University that I have had email correspondence with sent me an interesting email this morning. He had been asked by a world renowned hedge fund manager to review and summarize Strauss & Howe’s Fourth Turning. The hedge fund manager was intrigued by the book and wanted another opinion from someone he could trust. Below is the review. It seems that the Fourth Turning concept is gaining traction among smart open minded people.

    Sorry for the highly delayed opinion of Strauss and Howe’s “The Fourth Turning”. I spend enough time keeping up with daily noise that mowing through books is difficult. A quick clarification. I write up and post reviews of books I read, so this letter will assume a little flavor of that. I should add that my motivation to read the book was initiated by the drumbeat in the bear community, enhanced by Jim Quinn’s “Burning Platform” blogs based extensively on the premise of an impending Fourth Turning, and accelerated to the point of action by your interest in the book. (I am particularly intrigued that a guy managing tens of billions and benefiting enormously during what the authors call the “unraveling” would be so interested in such a book.) I especially enjoy reading books about the present (and future) that are not written contemporaneously (1996 in this case); it makes the resonances so compelling when they arise.


    To refresh your memory from your distant read, the book describes a scenario in which the saeculum (80 year generational cycle) is comprised of four societal cycles (a high or rebirth, awakening, unraveling, and crisis), each lasting about 20 years. A parallel analysis describes generational types that spend essentially a human lifetime proceeding through the societal four cycles in a sequence that depends very much on which cycle one is born into. There appears to be a perfect symmetry–every person experiences four cycles and every cycle has four different generations experiencing it, each at different stages of their lives. In practice, I found the societal cycles–the temperaments and actions of society at large–far more understandable than the generational archetypes. I think this asymmetry is caused by the authors’ looser definition of generations (more of them since WWII, for example). The premise that each turning has a personality that is a direct consequence of the personalities of preceding generational cycles–Turning 1 (rebirth) naturally leads to Turning 2 (awakening) which naturally leads to turning 3 (unraveling) culminating in Turning 4 (crisis)–is certainly provocative. The critical component of the thesis is not that bad things happen in cycles but rather society’s RESPONSE to the incessant wave of events (Black Swans) follows cycles. Another critical component is that these generational changes will arrive regardless of the minutiae of events, and they will do so rather abruptly. (Clearly, parallels with secular market changes are inescapable.)


    First, the weaknesses. The book seems to suffer a little from trying to place inherently sloppy patterns into neat categories. This is not a major problem, but potentially a source of allergic reaction to some. The historical treatise describing previous studies of cycle theories published over literally two millennia (Kondratiev being the most familiar) was necessary but offered a slow start to the book. (It would have been a killer if I hadn’t read a lot of history over the last decade.) This historical treatise was especially tough in that, although I could buy into their assertion that the War of the Roses was a Fourth Turning, I could not begin to imagine the societal moods necessary to place it in the right context. By contrast, generational changes in the 20th century US fit like an old shoe. None of these issues are fatal, just the weakest links.


    With that said, I found that “The Fourth Turning” seemed to dovetail nicely into a Worldview that I have been developing for over a decade. I had many times noted to friends and on blogs that kids growing up in the 80’s and 90’s couldn’t possibly understand that the World can be a cruel place; the world rotated on its axis without precessing. Also, EVERY generation concludes that the subsequent generation is all screwed up so surely there are generational rollovers. The description of the crisis era not just involving conflicts but conflicts leading to catharsis also seems to fit the facts. I thought they did a great job of describing the eras and personalities in the 20th century–an insightful stroll down memory lane. I am a huge fan of pithy quotes, so the enormous number of quotes used to describe temperament of the various eras hit the hot bone on me.


    The money shot came in the last 100 pages of the book in which they predict (again, in 1996) the Fourth Turning (the crisis) would arrive in the 2005-2010 window. Of course, every period has events that could be construed as proximate triggers (not causes but triggers) for a turning as well as crises, but the authors’ description was hauntingly accurate. I don’t know if you remember this, but they mentioned the trigger as possibly a financial crisis (check), broken promises by government (check), suffocating student loans (check), boomers beginning to overtax the system (check), and then the most surreal statement of all “something so trivial as a tea party.” I read that last one about five times. These guys clearly understood the unsustainability of the factors that have shoved us into gold-based investments. The stated influence of Pete Peterson on their thinking was readily apparent. (My son just so happens to work for him.)


    As I read the book, I found myself pondering the Fourth Turning and concluded that, if their generational model is correct, it has indeed arrived. I asked a colleague what the historians would label as the proximate trigger, and he said 9/11. I don’t think so. Could it be the financial crisis? Closer, but still not quite right in my opinion. I would say that the proximate trigger was the disastrously inadequate response to the financial crisis. Of course, I am not referring to a Krugmanesque monetary policy but rather to the complete absence of new safeguards and retribution. I suspect that authorities might go after many of your friends in the hedge fund world, but that totally misses the mark; you guys are expected to game the system. By example, prosecuting Rajaratnam (who I am sure is worthy of a few convictions) but not Gupta decidedly misses the mark. Gupta was the one who breached public trust in the system. The authorities had to clean up the system itself, and they have clearly failed miserably. There’s only one conviction resulting from the mortgage crisis and it was a guy who lied on a liar loan. Well duh! Of particular, importance, they didn’t just try and fail to clean up the system, they never even tried. I think society watched patiently and, only within the last few months, has started to get angry. (I just read an article by Jeff Sachs this AM expressing enormous anger over the crime wave that has gone unchecked.) This period in which we began to realize nothing has changed may be identified as the brief period in which, ironically, society’s temperament changed quite drastically. It will be marked as the onset of the Fourth Turning.


    If Strauss and Howe have it right then it is clearly time to duck and cover. What I see going forward are (1) resource constraints (as discussed previously), (2) conflict with China (possibly in the cathartic final stages); (3) seemingly endless shock waves resulting from collapsing credit markets (seems like an easy call); and (4) the demographic problems and defaulted promises (clearly articulated by the authors.) As Stephen Roach once said, however, “the ultimate insult would be to call it right and play it wrong.” I don’t see any riskless moves at this point. Admittedly, the riskless moves are often the ones in which there is so much perceived risk that it is priced in and, thus, removed…but I still can’t see them yet. A guy named Chris Martenson told me that people often say buying gold in 2001 was so easy because it was obviously so cheap. We shared a laugh over that one. Being a contrarian is painful as hell (as you know).


    After finishing a book, I scamper over to Amazon’s comments section to read what others thought. I especially like to read the negative reviews (one and two stars). It is clear that most of the negatives come from those who didn’t understand the most fundamental tenets of the authors’ thesis. Others took offense at the description of their own generation (especially the youngsters lacking some wisdom imparted by time). Some saw a political agenda. (I did not.) A slug of reviews posted right after 9/11 emanated  from people looking for some sort of explanation. Given that 9/11 was a bad event in the third rather than fourth turning, they were not going to find any. Still others simply could not grasp that the era at the time of posting could possibly give way to a new one, which represents precisely the authors’ premise that the turnings keep marching on and arrive without much warning. Of course, the five star reviews were people like me who found that the book got in their heads and rattled around a lot.


    Hope this review offered some insight.

    WHAT KIND OF COUNTRY HAVE WE BECOME?

     

    I live about 5 miles from Souderton. It is a small middle class town surrounded by farms. I’m sure it has a very low crime rate. People who live in Souderton and my town feel safe. It is 30 long miles from the squalor and crime of West Philly. Then in an instant, a beautiful 9 year old girl is playing outside her apartment in the middle of the afternoon and is abducted, raped, bludgeoned, and strangled to death by her 24 year old demented neighbor. My faith in humanity just took another body blow. How can this happen? What is it in our society that makes men do such a thing? This act is so incompehensible to me that I’m just left depressed and wondering whether our society is so far gone that there is no hope.

    This fiend had never had any trouble with the law. He had a fiancee. How many more of these ghouls are sitting in their apartments fantasizing about murdering little girls? Is it TV? Is it his parents? Is it a genetic defect? Is it the devil? I don’t know. I don’t know anything. I don’t know about a lot of things anymore. The older I get, the more I don’t understand.

    But, even with my complete disillusionment with our society, I still had a few questions after reading this horrifying tale. His fiancee told police she heard  a little girl screaming in pain and terror. Why the fuck didn’t she do something? Why didn’t she run toward the screams and save this little girl. She didn’t even call the police. She called the killer.

    Secondly, the police in this country will taser you during a traffic stop and treat you like a Muslim terrorist at our airports, but three weeks ago this demented killer had this girl and her friend in his apartment with the door locked and asked them if they wanted to see his dick. The girls reported it to police and they DID NOTHING!!!!

    In what kind of society does a 24 year old man ask two 9 year old girls if they want to see his dick and the police don’t think that is a problem?

    We live in a sick sick world that is spiraling downward. I’m completely disgusted with everything.

    Souderton girl murdered

    When 9-year-old Skyler Kauffman didn’t come in for dinner after playing with friends Monday evening outside her Souderton Garden Apartments home, her family went looking, then notified police who continued the search and put out an Amber alert.

    “It’s one of those situations where everyone did what they were supposed to do,” Montgomery County District Attorney Risa Vetri Ferman said, but, unfortunately, it wasn’t enough this time.

    James Lee Troutman, 24, who lived in another apartment in the same complex at Second and Chestnut streets, was arraigned Tuesday evening on charges including murder, kidnapping and rape of a child.

    Minutes before midnight, Detective George Moyer had found Kauffman’s body wrapped in a comforter under bags of trash in a trash container behind the apartments.

    Troutman had no significant police record, Ferman said.

    “This is one of those terribly disturbing situations where they happen seemingly out of nowhere,” she said.

    During the arraignment, Troutman sat for much of the time with his head cupped by one or both of his hands.

    He answered “yes” to Magisterial District Judge Kenneth Deatelhauser’s question of whether he understood the charges, then was returned to prison. Because of the charges, Troutman is not eligible to be freed on bail, Deatelhauser said. A preliminary hearing was scheduled for 1 p.m. May 19. Troutman did not have an attorney at the arraignment.

    “Dirtbag” was the first of the epithets shouted at Troutman as he was taken, wearing a bullet-proof vest, from a police car into the arraignment.

    After the arraignment, the shouts became such a din that individual ones could not be made out.

    “You’re gonna burn,” one said.

    “Die, Troutman, die,” another said.

    Police were called by Kauffman’s mother and grandmother about 7:11 p.m. Monday, May 9, according to the affidavit of probable cause. Kauffman had last been seen by the family about 5 p.m.

    Another resident told the responding officer he had seen blood in a basement area of one of the apartment buildings. When the officer went to the basement, he found both blood and a clog that was similar to the one Kauffman had been described as wearing, the court papers say.

    Montgomery County Detective Edward Schikel, of the Forensic Services Unit, who met and talked to Troutman while investigating at the scene, saw what appeared to be blood on one of Troutman’s sneakers, police said.

    That attention to detail helped speed up the investigation and lead to the arrest, Ferman said.

    “Without that observation, I don’t know if we’d be here today,” she said.

    After going to Troutman’s apartment and being given permission by Troutman’s fiancé to search for the missing girl, Schikel found bloody clothes, police said.

    Troutman’s fiancé, Heather Clemens, said that Troutman left the apartment about 5 p.m. Monday and said he was going outside to play games on his cell phone, investigators said.

    Clemens later heard a female voice screaming loudly, “wailing” and saying no in a way that was “long and drawn out when she said no, like nooooooo! while she was still crying,” investigators said.

    When Clemens called Troutman, investigators said, she did not get an answer, but he called back about five minutes later and said he was exercising at Indian Crest Middle School. After she told him about the screams, Clemens told investigators, Troutman said he hoped “everything’s OK.”

    He later came home, changed, took a shower and they ate dinner, police said.

    Troutman initially admitted to talking to Kauffman around 5 p.m. Monday night, but denied killing her, police said.

    He later admitted choking her, police said.

    Troutman described the killing as having happened when he “snapped” and “It was like a white out,” police said.

    Asked by officers why he killed Kauffman, he said he had to because once he took her down the basement he knew she could get him in trouble,” police said.

    An autopsy showed Kauffman died of asphyxia and blunt force trauma, police said.

    There was no previous connection between Kauffman and Troutman, other than being neighbors, Ferman said. He was not a relative or friend of the family.

    There was, however, a previous incident, police said, in which on April 18, Kauffman and another girl were near Troutman’s apartment when they needed to use the bathroom and he invited them to use his.

    Taking them to the bathroom, he told the girls to ignore the photos of naked women on the walls, police said.

    The girls became nervous and tried to leave, but found the apartment door was locked, then unlocked it and escaped, police said. In that incident, Troutman also allegedly asked the two girls if they wanted to see his “bird,” police said.

    No charges were filed in that case.

    WOULD YOU LIKE A LITTLE OIL WITH THAT VINEGAR?

    Another great article on Peak Oil from Gail the Actuary on  http://www.theoildrum.com/. If her assessment of oil production between now and 2021 is even close to accurate, we’re in a world of hurt. Impartial articles like this one should convince the most delusional peak oil denier that their drill,drill, drill mantra is nothing but hot air. I hadn’t seen the figure she stated as being the current cost for a barrel of oil to be produced in the Middle East as $95. That would appear to put a floor on the price of oil at a level above $95.

    The good news is that our oil consumption will decline as soon as the price gets high enough to push our country back into recession. We are just about there. So, oil prices will decline again, but the low price this time will be much higher than the last low. This is the bumpy plateau. Supply and demand sure is a bitch. Expect some more humanitarian invasions of Middle East countries sitting on top of our oil.

    My little peak oil widget just passed the 10 billion barrels consumed level for the year so far. I wonder if we discovered 10 billion new barrels during this same time frame.

    Peak Oil – April 2011 Update

    Posted by Gail the Actuary on May 2, 2011 – 1:27pm
    The US Energy Information Administration’s January oil production figures are out, and they show record oil production. Where are we headed from here?

     


    Figure 1. World “Liquids” Production through January 2011, based on Energy Information Administration data. 

    While production for January is up a bit (219,000 barrels compared to December), the monthly numbers bounce around a fair amount because of planned maintenance. They are also subject to revision. Figure 2 seems to indicate that the production amounts are trending upward a bit, probably in response to the recent higher prices. 


    Figure 2. Monthly average Brent Oil price and total “liquids” produced, both from US Energy Information Administration. 

    The amounts in Figures 1 and 2 are not entirely up to date, since they are only through January 31, 2011. All of the disruption in the Middle East started at the very end of January, and the disruption in Libya’s supplies did not start until February.  The earthquake in Japan took place March 11. OPEC estimates that OPEC and world oil supply fell in both February and March, with Libya’s production falling by 1.2 million barrels a day between January and March, with only small supply increases elsewhere offsetting this. World oil prices continue to be high. At this writing, West Texas Intermediate is about $111.50 a barrel; Brent is about $122. 

    So what do we expect going forward? 

    Eventual Decline, but not Following a Hubbert Curve 

    It seems to me that the story about what happens in the future with oil supply is much more complex than what depletion and new supply alone would suggest. As I explained in a previous post (Our Finite World version and Oil Drum version), the actual downslope is likely to be steeper than what a Hubbert Curve would suggest, because economies of many importing countries are likely to be adversely affected by rising oil prices, and because demand (and tax collections) are likely to be low in countries that lose jobs to countries that use oil more sparingly. 

    Hubbert assumed that nuclear or some other cheap alternative form of energy would allow business to go on pretty much as usual without oil. We know now that we are close to the downslope, but no inexpensive alternative has been developed in quantity. Because of this, actual production is likely to be less than the amount that is theoretically possible. This happens because of indirect impacts of inadequate oil supply, such as recession when prices oil prices rise; riots when food is in short supply; and inadequate demand for oil because of jobs move overseas to countries using less oil, leaving many unemployed. 

    In some sense, if oil prices could rise indefinitely, we would never have a peak oil problem. The high prices would either stimulate production of alternative types of energy or would enable oil production in areas where oil is very costly to extract. The indirect impacts mentioned above prevent oil prices from rising indefinitely.  These indirect impacts seem to be related to inadequate net energy for society as a whole. Theoretically, if oil prices could rise indefinitely, we could even end up using more energy to extract a barrel of oil than really is in the barrel of oil in the first place–something that is hardly possible. The fact that rising oil prices lead to impacts that tend to cut back demand seems to be a way of keeping prices in line with the energy the oil actually provides. 

    Which countries are able to buy the oil that is produced? 

    If we look at oil consumption by area, we find the following: 


    Figure 3. Oil consumption by area, based on EIA data. 

    It is clear from Figure 3 that consumption of my grouping called “Europe, US, Japan, and Australia) is much flatter (and recently declining) than that of the “Remainder.” The Remainder includes oil exporting nations, plus China and India and other “lesser developed” countries, many of which are growing more rapidly than countries like Europe, US, Japan, and Australia. 

    I have plotted the same data shown in Figure 3 as a line graph in Figure 4. The latter figure shows even more clearly how different the oil use growth rates have been. 


    Figure 4. Data from Figure 3, graphed as a line graph, instead of a stacked area chart. 

    If world oil supply is close to flat (shown in Figures 1, 2, and 3), Figure 4 shows that we have a potential for a real conflict going forward. The “Remainder” countries in Figure 4 will want to continue to increase their oil usage in future years, even if oil supply remains flat. This is likely to lead to considerable competition for available oil and high prices, such as we are seeing now. About the only way the “Remainder” countries can increase their oil usage is if oil usage by the “Europe, US, Japan, and Australia” group declines. 

    Many people believe that the only alternative to adequate oil supply is for the amount of oil produced by oil companies to fall and because of this, for shortages to result. While this scenario is possible, especially in the presence of price controls, in this post we show another way that oil consumption can be limited. 

    A very common way that oil usage (consumption) can be expected to decline is if high oil prices induce a recession. The countries that seem to be most susceptible to recession are countries that are (1) oil importers and (2) are heavy users of oil, since an increase in oil price has the most adverse impact on the financial health of these countries. When recession is induced, there are layoffs. These layoffs reduce oil usage in two ways: (1) less oil is used for making and transporting products that these workers would have made, and (2) the laid off workers are less able to afford products using oil, so reduce their purchase of oil products. 

    Because of this relationship, competition for oil is likely to be very closely related to competition for jobs in the future. The countries that get the jobs can be expected to get a disproportionate share of oil that is available. 


    Figure 5. Per Capita Energy Consumption, based on EIA data. 

    If we look at per capita oil consumption (Figure 5) on a world basis, it has been close to flat since 1985, because oil production until very recently rose enough that oil growth more or less corresponded to population growth. China and India’s per capita oil consumption rose, meaning that the oil consumption of someone somewhere, such as the Former Soviet Union, needed to decline. 

    Future Oil Supply 

    If we look at historical oil production (Figure 6), it has been fairly “bumpy”: 


    Figure 6. World oil production for crude, condensate and natural gas liquids. 1965-2009 from BP; 2010 from EIA. 

    By fitting trend lines, we can see where oil production seems to be headed: 


    Figure 7. World oil production from Figure 6, with fitted exponential growth trend lines. 

    What we can see from Figure 7 is that the growth rate of world oil supply has gradually been slowing. The growth rate was highest in the 1965 to 1973 period, at 7.9% per year. Then we hit the “oops” period of 1973 to 1975, when we ran into conflict with OPEC regarding oil supplies. The trend rate dropped to 3.9% in the 1975 to 1979 period. Between 1979 and 1983, oil consumption dropped to a -3.9% per year, when we picked some of the low hanging fruit regarding oil usage (mostly by eliminating petroleum from electricity generation and downsizing automobiles). The trend between 1983 and 2004 shifted to +1.5% per year, and since 2004, seems to be about +0.2%. 

    There are so many countries involved, that it is not easy to identify one country or area that is rising, but one country of note is Iraq. Its production in January, 2011, seems to be up by 300,000 barrels per day, relative to mid-2010, based on the latest data. Thus Iraq seems, for now, to be helping to keep world oil production flat, or even growing by a bit, despite increasing depletion elsewhere. 

    Looking at Figure 7,  it looks like the “trend” in trend rates over time is down. In the absence of other information, we would expect production to remain at its recent trend rate of 0.2%, or alternatively, the trend rate could take another step downward, probably to an absolute decline in oil production. A recent announcement from Saudi Arabia suggests that its ability to offset declines elsewhere in the future is likely to be virtually nil, so a continued decline in production from the North Sea and elsewhere will need to be made up with new production elsewhere, or will lead to a worldwide decline in oil production. 

    World population has been growing. If oil production remains flat or declines, and world population grows,  this means that someone has to be a loser, in terms of per capita consumption. I am not certain how this will turn out, but I see at least three forces that may come into play: 

    1. Countries may figure out that permitting jobs to move to less developed countries is not in their best interests, and start increasing protectionism. This will tend to keep demand more level (higher for importers, and lower for growing economies). The overall impact on oil demand is less clear–less oil will be needed for long-distance transport, but more oil will be needed to maintain current lifestyles of workers. 

    2. Countries that are in financial difficulty may find themselves increasingly shunned, as they seek to “restructure” their debt, and may find themselves increasingly cut off from buying oil products and the goods that that are made using oil products. This will tend to reduce aggregate world demand for oil, by reducing consumption in specific countries that have financial difficulty. 

    3. There may be recession affecting a number of countries, reducing their demand for oil. We don’t know how exactly that this will change the shape of the world oil production curve, but Figure 8 shows my very rough guess as to how supply might be affected. (Your view may differ.) 


    Figure 8. Historical crude, condensate, and NGL production based on BP and EIA data, plus a Guesstimate of Future Oil Supply. 

    It seems to me that as we go forward, we are likely to see a jagged pattern in oil production decline, reflecting a combination of less demand for high-priced oil as oil supplies continue to be very tight, except at high prices. In addition, some countries can be expected to increasingly drop out of competition for oil, as their financial situations deteriorate. Thus, the pattern for decline in oil consumption can be expected to vary significantly from country to country, depending on their policies and their financial conditions. 

    Clues as to Which Countries May Drop Out First 

    If we look at the per-capita consumption of the PIIGS countries, we see that for the most part, these were countries that increased their consumption of oil, and then were not able to maintain the increase. 


    Figure 9. Per capita oil consumption of PIIGS countries, based on EIA data. 

    The difference is quite striking when we compare per-capita oil consumption to a few of the non-PIIGS European countries. 


    Figure 10. Per capita oil consumption of selected European “non-PIIGS,” based on EIA data. 

    Why is there such a different pattern between the PIIGS and the non-PIIGS? I haven’t researched the situation extensively, but it would seem as though the PIIGS countries tended to be agricultural countries that tried to develop more diversified (oil intensive) economies. They expanded and incurred a lot of debt, and now this debt is becoming difficult to pay back. As far as I can see, this economic growth was not based on the growth of stable, fairly cheap supply of electricity, such as hydro-electric or coal. Instead, growth depended fairly heavily on oil use, and the cost of oil rose. It may be that part of this growth in oil use occurred because of an improvement in standard of living–more cars, more vacations, bigger homes. 

    My working hypothesis is that when oil prices went up, the economies of the PIIGS countries had too much debt for the new industries to provide enough revenue to service both the higher costs of oil and the debt costs. Countries which didn’t try to grow in this way didn’t have as much difficulty, although high oil prices are still a burden for them. They may eventually run into debt problems, just a little later. 

    What are China and India and some of the other countries that are growing rapidly doing differently, that their economies haven’t collapsed? One thing they have going for them is the fact that their oil usage is at a vastly lower level, even after rapid growth. Another thing that they often have going for them is growing electricity production, using an energy source that is relatively cheap. In the case of China and India, this is mostly coal; in the case of some of the other lesser developed countries, it is hydro-electric. 

    It seems as though at some price, each country will hit recessionary pressures and drop back in its demand for oil. This price will vary by country, depending on the country’s current debt situation, the extent to which the country can continue to “grow” its economy based on a growing source of cheap electricity, and how well international trade holds up with increased protectionism and higher oil prices. Countries depending on growing hydroelectric and coal-fired electricity are likely to hit limits, too, as these supplies reach natural limits. 

    One situation which may affect how long oil prices can stay high for the United States is the existence of QE2, or “Quantitative Easing 2.” This seems to keep the dollar low relative to other currencies, thus allowing commodities prices to remain high. QE2 is scheduled to end June 30, or earlier. If it is allowed to expire, it would seem as though interest rates could rise materially (because QE2 also keeps interest rates low), and could lead to a rapid deterioration in the financial condition of the United States. If this should happen, it would seem as though the United States could be one of the countries that enters recession and significantly decreases its demand for oil. Of course, high oil price by itself may lead to this outcome quite soon, also. 

    We cannot know how all of these forces will play out. Generally, I would expect that there will continue to be an upward push on the price for oil because of rising extraction costs, and because unrest in the Middle East is causing countries to provide additional benefits for their citizens, further raising their costs (estimated to be $95 barrel by the Wall Street Journal). As long as the world economy is expanding, rising demand will also tend to pull oil prices upward, because many countries are trying to compete for a supply of oil that is barely growing. 

    The various countries around the world can be expected to be in differing positions with respect to their ability to pay high oil prices. Gradually (or not so gradually), the weakest ones will be pushed away from buying oil, either because of debt defaults and shunning by exporters (unless they have goods to trade in return), or because of recession, or both. World oil production seems likely to decline as the number of countries that can afford to continue to purchase high-priced oil declines. Ultimately, oil consumption can be expected to drop to close to 0, because no country will be able to afford to buy very much oil at a high price, and because oil companies will not be able to maintain necessary infrastructure for a very limited supply of oil. 

    I don’t think that we can expect an analysis of the theoretical capacity of future world oil production to tell very much of the peak oil story. We really don’t know how much of the oil which seems to be available will actually be produced. A lot of the story will depend on the ability of individual countries to keep their economies in good enough shape that they can afford to buy high-priced oil. Many residents of countries that are shut out from oil supply are likely to find that oil products are not available at any price. 

    Originally published on Our Finite World.