The article reporting that 29% of Americans believe armed rebellion is in our future has me wondering which path this Fourth Turning is likely to follow over the next 15 years. The American Revolution Fourth Turning was a conflict against an external foreign power. The Civil War Fourth Turning was a domestic conflict between factions within the country. The Great Depression/WWII Fourth Turning was again a conflict against foreign powers. All of the Fourth Turnings had financial issues as a catalyst for the future conflict. Today is no different. This Fourth Turning began in September 2008 with the Wall Street created financial collapse. The perpetrators have not been brought to justice.
Do Fourth Turnings alternate between external conflict and internal conflict? Or, will this Fourth Turning be something completely different? Based on what I’m observing, I’m coming to the conclusion that there will be violent clashes within this country. They would likely not begin until the financial system implodes again. I believe the system will not hold together through the rest of the Obama presidency. We are five years into this Fourth Turning. The regeneracy that binds people together has not yet occurred. It doesn’t mean all people will be united. The Battle of Bull Run united the Union and the Confederacy against each other in a match to the death.
I’d like to know what you think.
What type of event will mark the major conflict of this Fourth Turning?
A. A civil insurrection against the Federal government by individuals, groups or states.
B. A major world war involving Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
C. Domestic chaos, riots, and looting followed by regional wars in the Middle East.
D. Nuclear annihilation of the planet by the U.S., China and Russia
E. Bernanke’s master plan will work and economies across the world will return to normal. We’ll all sing Kumbaya.
F. The Fourth Turning is nothing but a bunch of mystical crapola and American exceptionalism will win the day.
That is how we spelled Mary, M A E Y, in the old days. =)
I’m not sure it will involve any of those choices.I look for a new twist.
I do think the prologue will continue to involve lots of limited wars and hot spots…maybe we’ll nuke the shit out of North Korea or Iran, but it will be limited.
I think the prologue will involve collapsing currencies, deflationary depression, a breakdown in supply chains, and lots of desperation. It will include more and more violence on US soil, and continuing police state control and loss of civil liberties.
It well could involve pandemic plagues or mutant viruses that kill people wholesale.
I’ll bet A and/or C. Probably A followed (shortly) by C. B is a distinct possibility, following A. D is possible, but I think less likely (could be cognitive dissonance on my part). E & F? Bwahahaha, it is to laugh. But thanks for the humor-we can use what we can get these days.
Aside-You know what’s fucked up? Looking out your window on a May morning and thinking “at least it’s not snowing very hard today”. Snow in the forecast every day into next week. Global warming? Bring it on.
J. Japan implodes first due to Abenomics. The G19 rally to ringfence that (or ‘confinement’, it worked so well in Iraq back in the day) but some fallout impacts the U.S. primarily.
“Things fall apart, the center cannot hold” … the rest of the world breathes a sigh of relief, thanks their gods, and continues to follow their own agndae with Exceptionalism not invening with no real clue. China dumps $2+ triilion FRNs on the market, Bretton Woods is history.
With no international trade, the U.S. is on its own. Lack of oil impacts every aspect of the USAns life. The first fracture is probably the Pacific NW which petitions Canada to adopt it. And northern part of California goes with it. Texas declared independence. Meanwhile, all the progressive cities are in complete chaos, as JIT has failed. Seven million dead in the first few days. Border protection is imposed in various states, although certain regions maintain a regional affiliation.
Japan reverts to the medieval bushido culture it always preferred.
North Korea’s Kim threatens to take over the rest of the world and is assassinated by a wall of starving countrymen. China breathes a sigh of relief and offers foreign aid of whatever survivors of the Eurozone collapse remain — offering their ghost cities as shelter.
The Middle East remains much as it has for several centuries, the Shia/Sunni schism never resolves and the remnants are absorbed into the Sufi doctrine.
Several hundred years later, Native Americans unity what is left of America.
And then the sun goes nova.
@Novista, there’s a critical error in your comment. When you wrote “Seven million dead in the first few days,” you forgot the TBP-required style, which is “SEVEN MILLION WILL DIE!!!!!”
doom!
DOOM!!!
Took me awhile to weigh in, since I needed to really think about this (imagine that).
I think it’s a combination of your options, Jim. I think there is going to be internal strife, because society always fractures around 4Ts. It’s necessary to break down the old social order to build a new one. And, as the author pointed out in that Ron Paul / Jim Rodgers post, the past is already gone. We can’t go back to the “good old days” where people took responsibility for themselves, where the government didn’t infringe on lifestyles, where family, marriage, community actually meant something. Not exactly as it happened in the past, the past that we all know and wish we could go back to.
It’s anathema to many of us (myself included), but we can’t just hit “reset” and make all that happen again. Too many years have gone by, too many changes have happened to society to make a return to that possible. Instead, what will happen — as we know from studying history and previous 4Ts — is a new kind of social order will be created out of the ashes of the old one.
And you don’t have the opportunity to do that until everyone fights over what they want, what they believe should be. Look at us… we’re all ready to fight, to some extent, for our ideals, but what if — WHAT IF — our ideals are wrong, skewed, or could be different? We have to be prepared to think about that, prepared to change some of them if it means creating something better. It’s a difficult thing to do, but the fact remains, throughout history, that there were those who wanted to preserve the past and those who wanted to change it. Many, if not a majority, of colonists wanted to stay under British rule. Many wanted to keep slavery. Many wanted a government that didn’t help out people truly in need. Each time, those that wanted to preserve the past lost. We need to give some serious thought to that.
4Ts are about solving problems that were created by previous 4Ts’ solutions. Clearly, the entitlement state and unsustainable programs is one that needs to be solved this time around. But also government’s role in our lives, our place in the world (empire, intervention). And the overall issue of sustainability of the global economy, of the very relationships wrought by “globalization” that have us depending on other countries’ resources and markets.
4Ts are never completed without some kind of Total War, where everyone needs to choose sides. AWD does a great job of outlining how the world’s financial system, now inextricably interconnected, cannot be sustained and must collapse. All wars are economic in nature; it’s entirely plausible that the collapse of global markets will result in some kind of warfare, where national boundaries are redefined, millions die or are displaced and the world is left looking very different than it did at the beginning.
Whatever happens, 4Ts are never predictable and, while they “rhyme” with previous ones, nothing ever replicates. Those that survive are those that can best adapt to the new paradigm, including new ways of thinking.
Something we should all keep in mind as we progress through this one, even though it’s one of the most difficult things to do.
Stucky says:
“But I do know this;
Blacks —————— 96% voted for President Oreo
Hispanics ————– 72%”
that is an MSM story that does not make sense to me, hispanics did not figure in the ’08 election but suddenly come out in droves to vote for the deporter in chief? my take is that the acorn story was not going away so they had to change the storyline, hispanics tipped the scales, yeah, right. next they’ll wash their hands claiming we voted for nixon in ’72.
juan not john
Facts are facts.
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(CNN) — The sleeping giant has awoken: Latinos not only helped Obama win in key battleground states, but they made up 10% of the electorate for the first time ever.
Latinos, the fastest growing minority, making up 16% of the nation’s population, made their mark on election night as they voted for President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney 71% to 27%, a lower percentage than Republican candidates have received in in the last three elections.
At 27% this year, Romney’s Latino support is dramatically lower than former President George W. Bush’s support in 2004, which was 44%, and Arizona Sen. John McCain’s 31% in 2008, according to exit polls. The lowest percentage of Latino voters won by a Republican was in 1996, when Bob Dole garnered only 21% of Latinos compared with then-President Bill Clinton’s record 72%.
In 2008, Obama received 67% of the Latino vote. Latinos made up 9% of the electorate in 2008 with 19.5 million people eligible to vote. Today, there are nearly 24 million Hispanics eligible to vote. The number of registered Latinos has increased by 26% in the last four years to 12.2 million, according a report by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials.
“It’s something we saw coming and have seen happen for a numbers of years now. Hispanics are increasing their share of their electorate,” said Mark Hugo Lopez, associate director of the Pew Hispanic Center. “That number has been growing for a number of election cycles, and it’s going to continue to grow moving forward.”
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