ANOTHER BLS BULLSHIT REPORT

This shit just never grows old. The blaring headlines about amazing job growth are everywhere. Of course, the BLS issues two survey simultaneously. They interview some businesses and then they seasonally adjust the data and then add phantom jobs through their birth death excel spreadsheet “adjustment” and there you have it – 321,000 new jobs in one month. I guess that’s why so few people showed up on Black Friday to spend their new wages.

Well guess what? The unemployment rate didn’t drop. It seems their other survey paints a slightly different picture. They aren’t blaring this headline:

4,000 NEW JOBS ADDED, WHILE UNEMPLOYED SURGES BY 115,000

If you don’t believe me go to their website:

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea03.htm

Here are the facts jack:

  • The number of employed grew by 4,000, while the number of unemployed grew by 115,000.
  • Another 69,000 Americans supposedly left the labor force because things are so good.
  • The labor participation rate and employment to population ratio remains at 30 year lows.

  • The working age population grew by 2.3 million in the last year, while 1.2 million left the labor force, resulting in a miraculous decline in the unemployment rate from 7.0% to 5.8%.
  • Nothing says economic recovery like full-time jobs falling by 150,000 and part time jobs going up by 77,000

  • Nothing like a decline in employment of 169,000 for 16 to 24 year olds to improve the outlook of the nation.

If these government reported fantastic employment figures aren’t a lie, then why isn’t the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates. Wages supposedly surged by 0.4% in one month. That is an annualized rate of 5%. Sounds inflationary to me. I await Grandma Yellen’s announcement of an interest rate hike any moment now. Right?

Sound of crickets.

Government reported data is like the American dream. You’d have to be asleep to believe it.

 

321,000 jobs added to economy in November

By Jeffry Bartash

Published: Dec 5, 2014 8:52 a.m. ET

Biggest gain since 2012; unemployment rate unchanged at 5.8%
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. added 321,000 new jobs in November — the biggest gain since early 2012 — to extend the strongest streak of hiring in several decades. Virtually every industry was hiring and many of the new jobs were higher paying ones.

Hiring was also revised up by a combined 44,000 in the prior two months

The nation’s unemployment rate, meanwhile, held steady at 5.8% as more people entered the labor force in search of work, the Labor Department reported Friday.

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Jim
Jim
December 5, 2014 10:17 am

All one needs to do is go into Harlem or Detroit or Philly and see the coountless folks milling around with no jobs to know the 5.8% unemployment rate is a sham. In the big cities it is more like 50% as people have just dropped out of work force and/or just collect welfare. A surreal time we live in.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
December 5, 2014 10:32 am

Yield on the ten year Treasury is almost back down to where it was at the close of yesterday and oil is down a little today. It takes the markets a couple hours to see through the bullshit.

ragman
ragman
December 5, 2014 10:35 am

Excellent news! Time to raise rates, Janet?

TJF
TJF
December 5, 2014 11:02 am

USA Today had an article yesterday that said the economy is so good that lots of folks are quitting their jobs. How much longer can this go on before a little boy in the crowd laughs and points out that the emperor has no clothes?

TJF
TJF
December 5, 2014 11:08 am

NY Times headline says this is the best economic news in years. Every time I think I’ve moved past anger to just plain bemusement & bewilderment, something like this comes out and pisses me off.

How is it possible that so many americans allow themselves to be so easily fooled? It is a bit fascinating to witness.

Thinker
Thinker
December 5, 2014 11:42 am

The stories referenced by TJF — you really have to wonder what kind of idiots believe this tripe from the MSM any more.

USA Today: Watch wage growth, not job gains

NYT: More Jobs and Higher Wages: U.S. Recovery Starts to Hit Home

Steve Hogan
Steve Hogan
December 5, 2014 1:40 pm

If you’re perplexed by the conflict between what you feel about the economy and what the government statistics claim, do a simple thought experiment. Imagine our country where all of the SNAP cards, fraudulent disability payments, subsidized housing, student loan money being used for living expenses, and countless other transfer payments went to zero this afternoon.

In other words, ponder the state of the good ol’ USA if the tens of millions of FSA cadets were informed that they were on their own from this point forward. Not pretty, eh?

TE
TE
December 5, 2014 8:52 pm

This whole “increased wages” thing PISSES ME OFF.

Am I the ONLY person in the country that has gone to the BLS (bls.gov) and looked to see what is included in that number?

Our HEALTH INSURANCE!

The reality is if you overlay the true increases in employer sponsored insurance over the past couple years, AND the reality that the Feds are now paying WAY above market, you might just notice that our (us non-union, non-government) actual wages have DROPPED.

Unless, of course, you can eat your increased mandatory expenses.

Wonder how they are going to transfer our upcoming carbon/utility nightmare increases in GDP to our hourly wages to make it look as if we are making more even as our lives shrink?

This eff’n world is completely insane. I would love to believe it is an anomaly and that there is “hope” of returning to “normal.”

Instead my continued real-world education leads me to surmise that we ain’t seen nothing yet.

Let the bad times roll.

whitewolf
whitewolf
December 5, 2014 11:06 pm

Badtaste bartash propaganda KING

whitewolf
whitewolf
December 5, 2014 11:09 pm

HOW ABOUT GOLDS ARTICLE ON US DEBT NO LONGER MATTERS……..STATIST PROPAGANDA FOR THE MASSES. MIGHTT AS WELL BE READING PRAVDA (Market Watch)

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 1:54 pm

Jim,

My favorite part of the post was: “Nothing says economic recovery like full-time jobs falling by 150,000 and part time jobs going up by 77,000”

You then show a graph of part-time/full-time hires dating back to June 2013.

Since June 2013:
Full-time jobs: +3,194K (+177K per month)
Part-time jobs: +42K (+2K per month)

98.7% of the jobs added since June 2013 are full-time. Nothing says economic recovery like adding nothing but full-time jobs.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 1:59 pm

“All one needs to do is go into Harlem or Detroit or Philly and see the coountless folks milling around with no jobs to know the 5.8% unemployment rate is a sham. In the big cities it is more like 50% as people have just dropped out of work force and/or just collect welfare. A surreal time we live in.”

Detroit, the U3 is 8.1%. When was the last time you were in Detroit in order to make your 50% estimate? Also, what do you base your welfare estimate on? Or are you pulling numbers out of your a**?

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 4:05 pm

“Nothing says economic recover like real median household income 7% below 2007 levels.”

And real median household income in 2007 was below 1999 levels… What’s your point?

Early 1980s recession: -2,525K private sector jobs lost. It took until Reagan’s 6th year to get median household income back above 1979 levels.

Early 2000s recession: -2,026K private sector jobs lost. In 8 years, Bush never got median household income back to 1999 levels.

Great Recession: -7,551K private sector jobs lost… Given the previous two examples, why on Earth would you expect median household income to get back to pre-recession levels within 5 years despite far more job losses… Please tell me that you can’t be serious.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 4:08 pm

“Nothing like a 30 year low in labor participation.
You dumbass shill actually believe the propaganda spewed by the government.”

So you believe in LFPR produced by the government? Somehow that is not propaganda? Interesting. Also, LFPR for the most part has declined due to a number of reasons – kids staying in school longer, the 50+ year trend of prime working age males LFPR drop; but most of all, it’s due to baby boomers entering retirement age.

A decade ago, 55+ made up 27% of the adult population. Today, they make up 34% – that alone is half of the drop. Also, this was forecasted back in the late 1990s and LFPR will continue to drop until the late 2020s. What exactly is the point you are trying to make?

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 4:15 pm

“DG regaling us with U3 bullshit as 100 million working age Americans aren’t working”

What is that number supposed to be? It’s 92.5M by the way, not 100M – get the basic facts right at least (Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex). We have 45M Americans over the age of 65 and another 40M Americans between 16-22. What’s your solution? Force all the elderly to get a job, force students to drop out and go to work? Interesting.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 4:19 pm

“DG the douchebag doesn’t think we will check his bullshit Detroit unemployment number.
Only off slightly you idiot – 15.1%”

My bad, I pulled from the entire metropolitan area surrounding Detroit. So wait, let me get this straight, the city of Detroit has 15.1% unemployment and somehow you think that is a sign that BLS U3 data can’t be trusted and there is no way U3 can be 5.8%? Amazing. By the way, you sound really angry in your posts – no wonder our country is divided; people like you are unable to have a civil conversation. Oh well, I just still think it’s hilarious that the blog points out that nearly 99% of the jobs added since June 2013 are full-time – good to know!

Source: BLS Unemployment Rates for Metropolitan Areas
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.1%

Bostonbob
Bostonbob
December 17, 2014 4:26 pm

Countdown to nuclear detonation 10, 9, 8, ………..
Bob.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 4:31 pm

I was just wondering, I know everyone on here is trying to rip apart the +314K private sector jobs that we added in November and the +2,571K private sector jobs that we added in 2014.

Just curious, has anyone tried analyzing the -462K private sector jobs lost over the 8 years of the Bush administration. Now that would take some real comprehensive analysis.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 5:12 pm

“This whole “increased wages” thing PISSES ME OFF.

Am I the ONLY person in the country that has gone to the BLS (bls.gov) and looked to see what is included in that number?

Our HEALTH INSURANCE!”

@TE: Come on man, go back to the BLS page “Overview of BLS Statistics on Pay and Benefits” and read it carefully. The wage information is used to calculate average hourly and average weekly WAGES. “Indexes are available for total labor costs, and separately for wages and salaries and for benefit costs.”

The benefits data is used to calculate the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Come on bud, stay focused when reading through the BLS methodology.

Bostonbob
Bostonbob
December 17, 2014 5:41 pm

DG,
One of the things that appears to be missing in your analysis is that a disproportionate number of the jobs “created”, as if the government creates jobs, are part time and many of these part time jobs come with little or no benefits. Also many people with part time jobs hold more than one, I know quite a few of them including my wife. See attached:

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.advisorperspectives.com%2Fdshort%2Fcommentaries%2FFull-Time-vs-Part-Time-Employment.php&ei=zP-RVPWKH8qoNrHhgcAI&usg=AFQjCNGHGAnS9VIspmhvehyh7yNew00Hxw&bvm=bv.82001339,d.eXY&cad=rja

I do get a chuckle out of someone comparing the failed policies of the current administration with the terribly destructive policies of the previous administration. If I am drowning in 10 feet of water or 20 feet of water I am still drowning. I do not need an overreaching crony capitalist government to keep handing me bricks (Obamacare) and tell me to just swim harder while they offer green cards and a multitude of free benefits to people whose productive capacity is far outstripped by the what they take from the system.

Bob.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 5:55 pm

“One of the things that appears to be missing in your analysis is that a disproportionate number of the jobs “created”, as if the government creates jobs”

Face it bud, 57 straight months (BLS record) of private sector job growth and 10 straight months (longest since 1994-1995) of +200K job growth show that our current government’s policies are working. Unless you think our country is capable of magically adding +500K jobs per month…

Even better, during those 57 months:
Full-time: +8,695K
Part-time: +142K
Multiple job holders: +387K

Even more amazing is that under Obama, we have actually lost government jobs:
Reagan: +1,414K
Bush I: +1,127K
Clinton: +1,934K
Bush II: +1,744K
Obama: -646K

Had the previous trend of government jobs continued under Obama, we’d have roughly a 2M job swing in the favorable direction; unemployment would be in the 4s, LFPR would be above 64%…

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 5:58 pm

“Also many people with part time jobs hold more than one, I know quite a few of them including my wife. See attached”

Understood, but as I clearly pointed out, over the last 57 months, 98.4% of the jobs added are full-time – thus the trend in your link is heading back down. Not sure how you can expect a better number than 98%… Heck even in Reagan’s second term, 83.3% of the jobs added were full-time. 98.4% is an excellent number.

Bostonbob
Bostonbob
December 17, 2014 6:19 pm

DG,
While your number may come from the BLS. I believe the generously utilize seasonal adjustments to skew those numbers. I do not see anywhere near 98.4 % of the jobs created as being full time from virtually all of the articles I have gleaned. Also the overall, the U.S. population has grown by 17.2 million since mid-2007 while the U.S. economy has 374,000 fewer jobs than in November 2007. While some boomers are retiring most continue to work as many have not saved enough to retire unless they happen to work for the government and are one of the few left to get a pension and this is one of the reasons there are less people working for the already bloated government. Even the government realizes it is on an unsustainable path, while it has been able to tax and borrow to keep its head above water, this to will come crashing down.
Bob

Bostonbob
Bostonbob
December 17, 2014 6:39 pm

Part time nation:

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=0CDkQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.com%2F2013%2F08%2F21%2Fpart-time-job-creation_n_3788365.html&ei=xAuSVLAS8sixBNTmgLAD&usg=AFQjCNHPV-BI97fP2r3u93Me6fJe8Hr2qg&bvm=bv.82001339,d.cWc&cad=rja

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=25&ved=0CDcQFjAEOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2014-07-03%2Fjune-full-time-jobs-plunge-over-half-million-part-time-jobs-surge-800k-most-1993&ei=wBGSVLTQAYijNrqvgogG&usg=AFQjCNFWdwXQwRx8iuKMfNO2sDz_nS7kVw&bvm=bv.82001339,d.cWc&cad=rja

What is interesting is how each article will skew its results using either percentages or absolute numbers, but anyway you cut it the percentage of part time workers hovers around 20%, historically high. I would think in absolute numbers the current administration would have to create a larger number of absolute jobs if only because the population is significantly larger. As a percentage there is still an historically high percentage of the working age population not working. Much of he youth unemployment is due to the lax immigration policies of the past several administration exacerbated by the intransigence of the current administration. Growing up as a teen in the 1970’s we all had jobs in kitchens, landscaping, or construction. We were the cheap labor. Now this work has been handed over to immigrants, many of whom are here illegally.
Bob.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 7:35 pm

“I do not see anywhere near 98.4 % of the jobs created as being full time from virtually all of the articles I have gleaned.”

Any of the articles that have been written over the years about part-time jobs all used BLS data as their basis. IE: the article that stated 75% jobs added in 2013 are part-time was based on January-July 2013 BLS data. Why do you only trust the snippets of BLS data that appear in articles but not the BLS data as a whole?

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 7:43 pm

“Also the overall, the U.S. population has grown by 17.2 million since mid-2007 while the U.S. economy has 374,000 fewer jobs than in November 2007”

Total non-farm jobs:
November 2007: 138,253,000
November 2014: 140,045,000

Also, why Obama is responsible for what happened in 2007/2008 is beyond me – he didn’t inherit the 2007 economy, he inherited one that was losing 750K private sector jobs per month.

January 2001:
Total non-farm jobs: 132,694,000
Population: 283.6M

January 2009:
Total non-farm jobs: 133,976,000
Population: 305.5M

Between Jan 01 and Jan 09:
Population Increase: 21.9M
Jobs increase: 1.3M

November 2014
Total non-farm jobs: 140,045,000
Population: 319.4M

Between Jan 09 and Nov 14
Population Increase: 13.9M
Jobs increase: 6.1M

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 7:48 pm

“75 Percent Of Jobs Created This Year Were Part-Time Due To Weak Economy, Obamacare Concerns”
–Shows BLS data from January 2013 to July 2013

“June Full-Time Jobs Plunge By Over Half A Million, Part-Time Jobs Surge By 800K, Most Since 1993”
–Shows BLS data from June 2014

So let me get this straight… You believe the June 2014 and January 2013-July 2013 BLS data – shown in these articles. But you don’t believe the January 2009-November 2014 BLS data? Seriously?

2013: That 75% turned into -13.9% in a hurry
+1,543 Full-time jobs added
-188K Part-time jobs lost

2014: Even with June showing +799K PT/-523K FT – FT hiring is dominating
+2,204K Full-time jobs added
+398K Part-time jobs added

Last two years:
+3,747K full-time jobs added
+210K part-time jobs added
94.7% of all jobs added are full-time

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 7:54 pm

“Much of he youth unemployment is due to the lax immigration policies of the past several administration exacerbated by the intransigence of the current administration. Growing up as a teen in the 1970’s we all had jobs in kitchens, landscaping, or construction.”

Unemployment rate for 16-19 (not seasonally adjusted):
1970s average: 16.8%
Reagan average: 19.2%
November 2014: 16.6%

Unemployment rate for 20-24 (not seasonally adjusted):
1970s average: 10.0%
Reagan average: 11.6%
November 2014: 10.9%

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 8:12 pm

“Dumbfuck DG thinks his 92.5 million number is correct because he is so fucking dumb he can’t add the Not in labor force of 92,447 with the number of unemployed of 9,110 and get a number of 101,557.”

LOL… You do realize that:
Labor force = Employed + Unemployed

Here’s the BLS definition:
Labor force (Current Population Survey)
The labor force includes all persons classified as employed or unemployed in accordance with the definitions contained in this glossary.

Keep commenting Administrator, it’s quite hilarious to see you get all worked up and then completely fall on your face.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 8:14 pm

“Dumbfuck DG blames the labor participation rate at a 30 year low due to baby boomers retiring. That tired storyline is obliterated by facts.”

Once again, please post the population of 55+ versus the population of 16-54. You do realize that 55+ have 7% more of the adult population today than they did a decade ago? Obviously with more 55+ population, total workers for 55+ is going to increase. This isn’t rocket science.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 8:22 pm

Your workers 55+ is a really nice chart – notice how the uptick starts in the late 1990s as baby boomers began to approach 55 and continued throughout the 2000s and 2010s. What exactly is your point with that except to show that baby boomers in fact have had a major impact?

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 8:24 pm

“I stated that 100 million working age Americans were not working”

And your point being? What do you think that figure should be? Like I said, should we force the elderly to get jobs, force young Americans to drop out of school and get jobs and force stay at home parents to get jobs?

I don’t think you understand the changing demographics of the adult population from the 1990s to the 2000s to today…

Stucky
Stucky
December 17, 2014 8:39 pm

1. Fucking bullshit thread! Took 5 fuckin’ minutes just to vote down all Dumb Goon’s posts.

2. Dumb Goon …….. DEFINITELY a gooberment drone of one sort or another. Or, a college perfessor.

3. Admin should delete all Dumb Goon’s posts … just for shits and grins.

4. DGES

5. Admin wins!!

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 8:41 pm

“Dumbfuck DG’s storyline of boomers all of a sudden retiring enmasse since 2007 is obliterated.”

Where did I say people were retiring in mass? I said the population is getting older…

55+: 40% LFPR
16-54: 75% LFPR

A decade ago, 55+ made up 27% of the adult population; today they make up 34% – I guess basic demographics is too hard for you to comprehend.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 8:44 pm

LOL – You guys must be a blast at parties… It’s all good, I’m just glad that the blog proves that since June 2013, over 95% of the jobs added are full-time – that’s great news. I just have to laugh that you can’t connect that 55+ population growth correlates to 55+ employment growth – LFPR for 55+ has increased from 35% to 40% over the last decade.

DG
DG
December 17, 2014 8:45 pm

“It appears I was right again on the 100 million number. Do you agree? or do you want to LOL at my mad addition skills.”

Yes, sure, 92.5M not in labor force + 9.1M unemployed – once again, why are you dancing around my question – what do you think this number should be? Are you mad that unemployed has dropped significantly over the last 5 years?

Llpoh
Llpoh
December 17, 2014 8:49 pm

Admin kicks dumbfuck in the nuts. Ooooo, that must have hurt.

If I weren’t on vacation, again :), I would help crunch some numbers.

But Admin has this pretty well covered.

Here is a small tidbit, tho. If the working age population is going up 2+ million per year, more ore less, and jobs are being added at under 2 million per year, and the unemployment rate is plummeting, at least as recorded, what does that tell you, dumbfuck?

Hint – it means things ain’t getting better. It means that people are giving up the search for work and are going on welfare ( most notably SSDI). It means that if there were any honest reporting, unemployment would surely be over 20%, not the absurd 5.8 percent or whatever is being reported. Which is also helped by part timers being classed as workers. Hell, the real unemployment figure is likely 30% when you clear all the bullshit away.

And given that most of the jobs are low paying service jobs, it means that wages will keep coming down in real terms.

Yep, sure am glad things are getting better. From where I sit in Roswell NM it sure looks like things are great.

My dear missus is saying how depressed the entire SW if the country looks. And she is right. There sure as hell is no recovery out here.

But, hey, the wetbacks are sure happy with Obongo. That is something, I guess.

Llpoh
Llpoh
December 17, 2014 8:52 pm

DG – seriously, you think the actual number of unemployed has dropped? You are a fucking imbecile.

Repeat after me – leaving the workforce = unemployed.

Llpoh
Llpoh
December 17, 2014 8:57 pm

In June 2014 full time jobs dropped 500k while part time jobs went up 800k.

Dumbfuck is entirely full of shit.

Llpoh
Llpoh
December 17, 2014 9:00 pm

Admin – now if they will only stop collecting taxes!

Next step – doom palace completion. Then I will work only a couple days a week. That is about 6 months away.

BTW – at least I did not call in sick!

Llpoh
Llpoh
December 17, 2014 9:10 pm

Nope – I was on vacation when I got sick, so did not miss any days work because of it. But I sure as hell would have.

Nice job you got there.

Didius Julianus
Didius Julianus
December 17, 2014 9:18 pm

Hi admin, that sounds similar to my UofL days. As an “administrator” level employee, also received 22 or 23 days of vacation per year. Sounds similar to your gig.

Didius Julianus
Didius Julianus
December 17, 2014 9:35 pm

I hear you. While I was at UofL my wife managed to use that tuition benefit they had for spouses (now eliminated) to get her B.A. (Psych) and MS degree (MS Social Work) – which she thinks is full of social justice and politically correct BS but had to get in order to do the joint program with MFT (marriage and family therapy) – actually a great and very rigorous worked their assess off program when done that way but they only admit about 30 per year into the joint program and have 10 times plus that amount apply).

Afterwards I used the tuition benefit they still had for employees to get my Masters in Public Health (Management and policy focus – you should have seen the debates with me and a couple others against most of the brain washed students and oh so liberal professors, most of whom were MDs back when Obama care was being discussed before it became law).

Our daughter was using it to work on her undergrad before she succumbed to her baser instincts and is now living the consequences. We hope she will learn one of these days. She resisted all the traditional values we tried to instill in her.

Sensetti
Sensetti
December 17, 2014 9:37 pm

I will carry over 200+ hours of vacation into next year. I get so much I can’t use it all.

bostonbob
bostonbob
December 18, 2014 9:29 am

Admin.
Thanks for jumping in, I like trolls like DG they make shitfests a little more lively. I hope he comes back. 5 weeks vacation here after 15 years. I still need to use up 5 days before the end of the year, since we can only carry over 2 weeks. The only sick days I have used in the 15 years were for back surgery otherwise I could probably work for Llpoh sweeping the shop floors.
Bob.