Who Would Win A Conflict In The South China Sea: The Infographic

Tyler Durden's picture

As regular readers are no doubt aware, the US and China are racing towards a maritime conflict stemming from Beijing’s construction of what Washington has condescendingly called “sand castles” in the Spratly archipelago.

Atop these man-made islands are cement plants, air strips, and soon-to-be lighthouses, as China boldly asserts its territorial claims on what are heavily-contested waters though which trillions in seaborne freight pass each year.

Now, with Beijing set to enforce what is effectively a no-fly zone over its new sovereign ‘territory’ we bring you the following graphic from WSJ which shows that when it comes to sheer size, China’s air force and Navy are beyond compare.

More, from WSJ:

China’s promise to beef up its naval capabilities to prevent further “meddling” and “provocative actions” by rivals in the South China Sea is a daunting prospect for most of its neighbors, which already view Beijing’s fast-improving armed forces with trepidation…As a recent Pentagon review of China’s military modernization drive noted, “China is investing in capabilities designed to defeat adversary power projection and counter third-party—including U.S.—intervention during a crisis or conflict.” In practice, that means hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles positioned near the coast to deter Japanese or American warships from coming anywhere near Chinese territory. China has a substantial submarine fleet as well, piling on more risk for enemy ships.

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Llpoh
Llpoh

SSS – so what can the US do about it? Not a fucking thing. Go to war with China? Really? Not likely.

Llpoh
Llpoh

In the end, China is about making money. They are great capitalists, in their ruthless, lawless way. To affect them, you have to affect that. And if you affect that too greatly, they will start gobbling up surrounding nations.

Xorthfred
Xorthfred

Diego Garcia is a British possession.

Stucky

Harvard will soon be offering a new course: “How To Debate And Win”. The “textbook” will be this post, focusing on Admin’s deft tactics and strategy.

A separate course titled “How To Fuck Up Any Argument” will also use this post, but the focus will be on SSS.

I don’t know how Admin does it. I don’t know why SSS keeps trying.

TE
TE

I look at the infographic of the Chinese and American build up of death machines, and while I want to cry, it makes me sadly laugh at the folly our elite have created.

China’s navy was bought with the dollars, blood, illness and future of our citizens. So was ours.

Led down a freaking primrose path.

Our Founders WARNED of foreign entanglements, thanks to a solid century of propaganda and public schools, the majority thinks the Founders were wrong. Even as their children are maimed, murdered and ground to dust under the PTB grist mills of death and bounty.

China used American PTB greed, and the hubris of the demoncrats, repukelicans and semi-elite, to get our production, know-how, patents, equipment, sales, dollars and future, best part is they received it all on “our” corporations dimes while the Chinese kept 51% and up of all new ventures, you figure out what will happen at war with them.

What freaking tools we are. Yep, “free” trade that is one-sided and predatory to the planet and average man is working out so well even Rand Paul supports more of it.

With the continued escalation of events worldwide, it is no wonder that China and Russia are flexing and pushing back.

My belief is that China has planned today for a long time. We have continuously escalated our demands of dominion and excuses for death for decades. We proved whom owned our government – the 0.1% elite – in the ’90s. There could be no doubt, for them, that they could use our fiat (jobs, patents and resources), with the funding of the Elite and the consent of our government, to bring our way of life crashing down around our patriotic and ignorant asses.

Ah, poor Jerry, wandered in and made a stand, but scampered off to find his peeps to make it all better. What a shame…

Persnickety
Persnickety

Jim said: “Right has nothing to do with it.”

Do you really believe that? Because if rightness is irrelevant, then all of us US residents have nothing to be ashamed about, morally, in terms of the last 15 years of Neocon rule. We might regret the lack of victory (ahem) and lives lost, but morally, no biggie.

And, if “Right has nothing to do with it”, then there is no legal or moral reason why the US, still the vastly superior military power in the world, cannot simply obliterate these little islands and their unfortunate denizens. Also maybe wipe out Chinese port facilities, retake Hong Kong and Shanghai (the Bund at least), introduce heroin and ultraporn ™ to the Chinese mainland to recreate the 19th Century, etc. etc.

No, our biggest problem is that after 15 years of behaving like “Right has nothing to do with it”, we don’t have the strong moral standing to oppose the Chinese action here, which is not unlike some of the things we’ve done in the mideast, or many things that European imperial powers did a century ago, but is still clearly in violation of international law.

Oh, yeah, good job trying to ignore our resident retired spook and the only one who’s identified as a retired military officer (vs. enlisted). Obviously someone with a career as a military officer and intelligence agent has absolutely no idea of anything regarding politics, military matters or international law.

Stucky

” … but is still clearly in violation of international law.” ———– Persnickety

pffft All countries keep international law when it suits them, and ignores them when it does not.

Anyway, if the Chinks build those islands like they built my microwave, those fuckers will sink in about two years.

Persnickety
Persnickety

I annoint Jim our resident NeoCon Jesus, for bravely teaching the world the truth.

https://imgflip.com/i/m4eu4

Olga
Olga

Perhaps showing the world that in the end the US can’t or won’t do anything about these islands and water-grab is the real goal – taking us down a peg or two, deflating our empire, showing the world our Potemkin existence as the financial crisis gets ready to detonate.

I imagine the rest of the world is a bit tired of all the spewing rhetoric we seem to engage in and China is in the midst of making this all too clear to anyone with eyes and ears.

Persnickety
Persnickety

https://imgflip.com/i/m4eu4

IndenturedServant

I missed my chance to smack Jerry around? Oh well. I just spent two magnificent days driving N-S through the state of Idaho, border to border. Every mile was magnificent. The Chinook and Steelhead fishing is still going strong with blackbears snagging dead salmon on some stretches of river. The rains and an enormous amount of late season snow are hammering the state. That brought the elusive sheep and goats down to lower elevation. Took a side trip up into the Seven Devils Range but got stopped by snow. The hills there are almost 8000 feet above the Snake river below! The river below looked like a thin silver ribbon. Everything is green and the wildflowers are out in force. Dropped off four 1/6th barrel kegs at different breweries along the way and will pick them up filled with liquid life on the way home. Goin’ to pick morel and coral mushrooms today!

Persnickety
Persnickety

“SHOULD WE GO TO WAR TO STOP THESE ISLANDS FROM BEING BUILT?”

No. But we should act like they don’t exist, and sail or fly around and over them as much as we damn well please, and if we get hassled by Chinese forces we should treat it as an unprovoked attack, or piracy, and respond with overwhelming force.

Persnickety
Persnickety

We can’t defeat “ragheaded camel jockeys” because they aren’t dependent on technology and we aren’t willing to defeat them the one way that always works (total extermination). If the modern US had the morals of Stalin we would have used bioweapons on whoever we wanted rid of and that would be that. Of course the entire world, including US citizens, should be very thankful we don’t have the morals of Stalin.

China is technologically dependent now and has tons of stuff we can easily blow up with conventional weapons. They also have never fought a modern war, ever, and are likely to make freshman mistakes if they try. In addition, they have terrible demographics and a social situation that will not tolerate any significant military casualties, because nearly all casualties would be of a family’s only son, meaning the end of the family name, line, and retirement prospects. It won’t take many of those before there is extreme backlash at home.

I imagine China would dump whatever US Treasuries they still hold. There’s plenty of reason to think they already did dump much of their holdings, and those are probably indirectly held by the Fed or its friends/agents anyway. Not sure if you know this Jim but there seems to be a disconnect between financial market prices and fundamentals? 8)

I don’t give a shit about Chinese made trinkets. All the stuff I actually enjoy owning is made in other Asian countries, including nearly all electronics that I use. People assume it’s all from China but a ton of consumer electronics are now made in S. Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines, along with some higher end stuff still coming from Japan. Malwart and Dollar-Bling will have to change sources to Ghana or Bangladesh or whatever – big deal. China has had a spectacular rise but is now in the uncomfortable position where it’s too expensive to be cheapest, and not good enough to compete purely on quality.

I think you and I and 99% of TBP readers can agree that the US has lost any moral authority it once had, and that’s a bad thing. You seem to view that as a reason to retreat from world affairs even when an issue is black and white and we have real national interests at stake. I don’t.

IndenturedServant

Persnickety said:
“I think you and I and 99% of TBP readers can agree that the US has lost any moral authority”

Yep! We traded it for immoral authority!

starfcker
starfcker

Jim, china’s demographics are itching for a war. The under 30 population is heavily male, due to one child, and all those extra young men, pissed off and getting no action from the ladies, are a threat to any government. They could sacrifice a number the size of the US population, and still have a billion people. Hate to live in that neighborhood

Persnickety
Persnickety

Jim, in a late-week fit of rage, said:

“You think the US can invade China? You think they can be defeated with airpower and the navy?”

-> I’m not proposing to invade, just to deter them from blocking international travel lanes. Huge, HUGE difference. Invading a country the size of China, especially one without natural resources, is a fool’s errand. Deter, isolate, ignore.

“How about a nuke detonated above our various fleets? Do you think that might impact our “modern” war machines?”

-> The US created and discovered EMP and our ships are hardened against it. Big deal. If you mean a direct nuclear strike, yes that will sink one carrier group – a bad day for us. It also gives us MAD-justified nuclear retaliation, and that’s a bad day/year/century/millennium for China. They wouldn’t go that route, realizing their country would be permanently destroyed.

“You really are talking gibberish. This isn’t a fucking game of Risk. If you withdraw the various carrier groups from the Middle East to confront the Chinese, do you think Iran and Russia might take advantage?”

I had to look it up but we have 10 carrier strike groups available. We can send three to deal with China and have seven for other regions. I also don’t think carrier groups would end up being the preferred way to deal with China since they are vulnerable to Chinese weapons, and China is vulnerable to other weapon systems we have.

“The Chinese don’t have a demographic problem fighting a war today. They have 1.3 billion people and their leaders don’t give a shit about human life.”

Whatever, that’s not how I read China. I see them as calculating and in it for long-term gain and survival. Fighting a big war with the US would be very risky for their survival. China is huge, but none, NONE of their neighbors like them. If this turns into a major war, then 50 years from now it will be called “the war of Chinese aggression” and multinational peacekeepers / occupiers will still be in China and controlling it.

DRUD
DRUD

Persnickety,

Ok, let’s say I take everything you say at face value, which I certainly do not, but let’s just say I did.
First you seem to believe that “Deter, isolate, ignore” is really an option with China. You seem to ignore the economic side of things. China holds several trillion dollars of US Bonds and ~$1 trillion of cash…they could collpase our entire bullshit economy in about a day…they haven’t done so because it would hurt them too…in a war situation that changes immediately. Second,. you seem to want to pretend you understand EMP and EMP “hardening”…you don’t, I don’t, no one really does, the main test which showed effects of EMP was done in 1962 and the level of EMP was a surprise to everyone, but the point it there were ZERO silcon microchips outside of research labs at that time. Hardening is done, but its effectiveness in this situation is a big questionmark?

But, even that is small potatoes, if even a single nuke is used in any way, there is a high probability of escalating nuclear war, ending in catastrophe, and not just somehow isolated to China, but for the entire globe.

So…I must ask three things:

1)Are the risks worth stopping China from (supposedly, allegedly, ridiculously) “blocking international trade lines?

2) What does a win look like? What is the best possible?

3) Given your answer to (2), what is the likelihood of the US military (the very same institution that has completely fucked up the Middle East for the past 3 decades, and that is just the latest of its clusterfucks) could accomplish it?

You should not even get to (3), but if you do and answer anything other than slim and none, you haven’t been paying attention.

DRUD
DRUD

It terrifies me that people like Persnickety keep falling for the same bullshit, even after witnessing NOTHING but failure after 15 years of continuous war…war begun under false pretenses…but now, suddenly, not only are we sure the USA!USA! will win (without ANY concept of what a “win” even looks like), but that our warmongering dipshits in charge are incapable of misleading us….

Maybe a little nuclear holocaust will teach you a little people a little healthy skepticism.

starfcker
starfcker

DRUD, like your post, one small quibble. You have the economic arrangement between china and the US backward. We own them. The magic of janets printing press means we could pay them off painlessly in seconds. Cut their access to our consumer markets, and they go stone age real quick.

DRUD
DRUD

It is a reasonable quibble, but how much magic does the printing press have if the proles can no longer get cheap Chinese crap on the Walmart shelves. We live in an Empire of Bullshit, the tiniest bit of real truth will cause it to crumble…agreed that it is probably the same way with China…economic MAD?

Persnickety
Persnickety

@DRUD, our economy is a fairy tale, but so is China’s. I could see an economic MAD issue there. But we can turn to a lot of other suppliers, and they need our markets. That is changing over time but it’s not over yet. If you project trend lines – always a dangerous game – it’s iffy whether China gains enough power before their demographic, malinvestment, and pollution issues all explode in their face. Remember how 1980’s Japan was going to conquer the world and own the US as a slave? How did that work out?

In the long game my money is on Russia and India. Both have their risks, but their futures look more promising than those of China, or absent a miracle, the US.

DRUD
DRUD

“In the long game my money is on Russia and India.” – To do what…win the future???? Like Admin said, this is not a game of Risk. I suppose you could easily say that the US “won” the twentieth century…and what was our portion (We The People) of the prize? To get to live in the Bullshit Empire, be owned by corporations and be on the verge of monumental, historic collapse? We should let China “win.”

The whole concept of “winning” must be eliminated from the culture of geo-politics (yeah, right) or sooner or later we are going to have zero winners and seven billion losers.

DRUD
DRUD

Also, Persnickety, you answered zero of my questions.

Ottomatik
Ottomatik

How about one thing we can all agree on. Chaos and instability are spreading like cancer to benefit a very few.

Jerry
Jerry

I’m done with this site. You’re all dumb. I’m the new bitch in town.

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Iska Waran
Iska Waran

Welcome back, Jerry!

HarveyKl

articles like this only serve to show who is either unable or unwilling to discern idiotic propaganda from reality. i don’t always agree with jack burton but we’re on the same page with this one.

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