The CNBC bubble headed bimbos and brainless stock touting twits will be in ecstasy today as the ever predictable rebound is under way. The market will soar by over 500 points at the opening as the excuse of the day is China’s desperate interest rate cut to try and stem their downward spiraling economy and markets. The Wall Street captured boob tube brigade will tell their almost non-existent viewership that all is well. The terrifying plunge is in the past. The economy is great. Housing is strong. Stocks are now a bargain. It’s the best time to buy.
Now for some factoids. Six of the ten largest point gains in the history of the stock market occurred between September 2008 and March 2009. That’s right. During one of the greatest market collapses in history, the market soared by 5% to 11% in one day, six times. Here are the data points:
2008-10-13: +936.42
2008-10-28: +889.35
2008-11-13: +552.59
2009-03-23: +497.48
2008-11-21: +494.13
2008-09-30: +485.21
Do you think these factoids will be shared with the public today on the stock bubble networks? Not a chance.
The mindset of the arrogant clueless investor is that by the end of today they will have recovered over 50% of their losses incurred in the last week. Even if they think the economy is headed into recession, they will hold on hoping they can recover 100% of their losses before selling. If they are really dumb and trained like a monkey to BTFD, they will buy some Apple, Netflix, Amazon and Tesla today. Buying the dip has worked for the last six years. It will surely work this time.
If you are a critical thinking awake individual who can see the wheels are coming off this debt dependent bus to nowhere, you would take the opportunity to sell into today’s dead cat bounce.
If you choose to believe the shills, shysters and hucksters paraded on the corporate MSM over the last two days, you will end up like millions of other muppets.
Checking the Dow (mini) at 6:45am to now shows it is dropping, same for S&P (mini)
There is just not sufficient liquidity IMO, we shall see. Could be another negative close contrary to what the bubbleheads are saying this morning. China crashed again overnight.
It never gets old.
HNIC Oreo is blaming the GOP for the sell-off yesterday.
I just KNEW there was a simple underlying cause! Thank you, O’Monkey!!
Looks like the market will open today up 500.
Things ARE looking up! Why worry?
The current guestimate is that the market will soar upwards an additional 11% OVER where it was last week.
Wish I would have gone in on the oil, at 37.75$, selling at 40+ would have been a nice little return.
Oh well, I think I’m better off sitting the side lines and watching this shit show play out.
Reaction rally will last 3 days, then continue down.
Three Peaks and a Domed House may complete by Christmas
This week is all about banging out the margin calls and completing our descent to support (?) at 1820 SPX.
September FOMC will hike rates and initiate the next plunge to the 1530 area, by the October 9 Bradley turn date.
A final crash from the next Bradley turn in mid-November brings us down to 1074 SPX, just in time for the Fed to announce its next package of Quantitative Easing. We will then be running on faith and fumes the rest of the way.
The descending trendline here is so steep, that this cycle may finish entirely by Christmas.
Via Deflation Land
this chinese insanity allows some a second chance to bail
The price of copper has reached a 6 year low. Commodities overall have fallen to a 13 year low.
All these companies that are doing so FAAAAABULOUS today … don’t they need commodities to make their shit? Some magical shit going on here that I don’t quite understand.
@Stucky – Thats one thing that people don’t seem to understand.
Real wages are down. Household income is down. Inflation is up (this takes a bit more convincing, they always use gas as their defense). Pensions are unfounded and collapsing all over the US.
Commodities are down.
They think that because the reported GDP and stock market are up, everything is honkey dorey, and gladly pour their life savings into the “and its gone” machine.
I’m going to feel badly for them when the crash hits, they will have no idea what hit them.
Nothing -at least in the markets- ever goes straight up or straight down.
Don’t underestimate the amount of manipulation that can be done to fool people and control their investment behavior.
But in the end, eventually, reality always overcomes all manipulation.
by Karl Denninger
ROFL! (“Markets”)
“Markets in turmoil!” screamed the headlines yesterday.
But that’s only true when the market goes down strongly, right?
Here’s the amusing part of this — the cut in China’s reserve requirement that produced a 600 point DOW futures rally overnight (most of which happened before the cut) and the futures market over the last 48 hours has done nothing but******people on both sides of the trade — those who shorted yesterday — really any time yesterday — are now (deeply) underwater, and those who sold yesterday are shaking their heads at a crystallized and unnecessary loss.
But before you start singing Kumbaya please keep one thing in mind — these sorts of “excursions”, just as they did in early 2007 when the Asian market melted down and again in early 2008 when Bear Stearns went under, have a serious negative effect on liquidity in the market as those who find themselves with the raw deal this morning take their ball and bat and go home.
It happened last time and it will this time. And no, what started last week is not over.
#MuppetLivesMatter
I confess I don’t know what is going on in China but does anyone else? I do know that China’s debt to GDP ratio has reached at least 280% of GDP according to best estimates and, given the lack of verifiable data in China, could be considerably higher. If so how much more room does China really have for another round of credit expansion so why the cheering that the PBOC, probably on orders from Xi Jinping, has reduced the RRR requirement and lowered interest rates… again?
Seems to me China is just following Japan’s path into a protracted debt induced zombie state but with a much greater risk of a political blow up as China under Xi Jinping is becoming more authoritarian not less. Thus events like the explosion in Tianjin or corruption have to be resolved with executions of high officials and businessmen but executing high officials and businessmen spurs capital flight necessitating more executions until China is no longer even a partially open society. If that happens just how many iPhones does the homosexual CEO of Apple think he can sell in China or even import into the US when public opinion in the US starts to notice?
Its obvious to me that if we have initiated trade sanctions on Putin’s Russia we can’t be far away from having to do the same with China. Doesn’t anybody at CNBC see the growing political and economic risks in China? How about Brazil? The largest nation in Latin America has as its president a woman with an 8% approval rating who is up to her ears in the corruption scandal surrounding Petrobras. Canada and Australia have unexploded housing bubbles and currency problems. The EU is falling apart and Turkey and the rest of the middle east is one big war zone.
Where in the hell is anything going right to justify all this optimism about the global economy?
Dow Plunges Back Below 16,000 – Dead Cat Bounce Dying
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/25/2015 15:26 -0400
“Off The Highs” – hope is fading fast as The Dow is now down over 350 points from its pre-open highs after the China rate cut and has broken back below the crucial 16,000 level…
Dow is down 27 points at this time, old Bea called this early this morning (first comment).
HFT could bring it out of negative territory.
Dow is down 204.91 for the day, big chance to BTFD again.
That didn’t end well.
I’ll watch the overnights, bet tomorrow is in the red also and no it did not end well.
But hey, we can always BTFD tomorrow, that’s what CNBS told me.
Yo- I cannot speak for all derivatives, but I know many frakin’ derivatives will be going off the rest of this year 2015, and pretty much all the rest in 2016. Its a shit ton of regional and national banksters holdin’ them at 100$ a barrel.
Some frakin’ bitchez made good calls buyin these dirivities, what is oil going to be next year? 30$? The banksters on the other side….not so much.
Next year will be the last of the frakin,’ all those that chose right will still produce and collect their 100 per barrel and wrap it up.
The damage of the derivatives will live on…..
Good points, Jim, as always. Its also interesting to note what ‘trick’ was happening each of those days. I’ll bet most of them were days when the Wall Street colluding financial terrorist brigade secured more monetary heroin pillaged from the treasury.
I can start with 11/21/08 as I remember well that was the day O’ announced he was entrusting the treasury to Geithner … from 100+ down (from a 7500ish base) to up 450+, whammo.
We could have seen what the next 4 years at least would bring when that shallow tool stood at the podium with his ‘Office of the President Elect’ placard, fresh from Kinkos.
It would be fun to see what exact sell-outs occurred on the other days.
Cheers.
Jesse Livermore, who made fortunes shorting the market crashes of 1907 and 1929, lost everything and put a bullet in his head, because in later life he kept BTFD.
Greetings,
These issues are a bit bigger than myself but as a person that enjoys watching the Madness of Crowds, I can not but state that I am amused by it all. Of course, it could all end with a World War or some other event that leaves us all to starve to death in the streets but I see no scenario where the system we have goes away anytime soon. Until then, enjoy the show.
Even people who get it “right” for a while eventually succumb to the urge to “get it all.”
The most successful trader I have met (traded for a living for five decades) succeeded by only attempting to capture a part of the move, never trying to buy the initial part of the rally or sell at the top of it.
Once the index futures came along he generally didn’t hold a position overnight, with the exception of a multi-month bear market where, once technical signals began flashing an impending low, he’d buy call options and hold them (he called them high probability lottery tickets.)
It’s an approach that’s not for everyone. I tried to follow it for months and failed utterly. People think trading is like riding a bicycle–everyone can learn how. Instead, I think it’s like training to do an Iron Cross in gymnastics. Some people are born with the ability to train to do one, others could train for decades and never achieve the ability.
Also, no trading approach works at all degrees of trend. If it did, someone would have long ago implemented it and, after a couple months of compound returns, ended up owning everything in existence.
Anyone who promises “10% compounded,” or “double your money every month” is a lying, conniving, malice-filled criminal.