California – A Deluge Followed by Mega Drought?

Guest Post by Bruce Krasting

 

Both NOAA and the Australian Meteorologists issued El Nino updates in the past 24 hours. The weekly numbers that were released confirm that an historic event is taking place. It now is (nearly) certain that the most significant El Nino in recorded history will be with us over the next five months. From the Aussie weather geeks:

The 2015 El Niño is now the strongest El Niño since 1997–98.

The last time we were close to the current El Nino conditions was the fall/winter of 1997/1998. National Geographic has this to say of the 1997 El Nino:

It rose out of the tropical Pacific in late 1997, bearing more energy than a million Hiroshima bombs. By the time it had run its course eight months later, the giant El Niño of 1997-98 had deranged weather patterns around the world, killed an estimated 2,100 people, and caused at least 33 billion [U.S.] dollars in property damage.

At its peak, the 1997 El Nino index reached a record high of 2.3. This extreme level was nearly reached over the past week, there is every indication that it will move higher in the coming months.

The 1997-98 results:

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.35.29 AM

We just hit 2.2 on the weekly numbers. This number will climb over the coming months:

 

weeklysst

 

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.39.51 AM

What does a super El Nino mean for California? Record rains are coming soon! The historical results from the 1997 Nino event:

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.51.57 AM

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.52.13 AM

National Geographic sums up the consequences of a weather system that has the power of 1m nukes:

In the U.S. mudslides and flash floods flattened communities from California to Mississippi, storms pounded the Gulf Coast, and tornadoes ripped Florida.

The effects of the 1997 Nino were felt globally:

Forest fires burned furiously in Sumatra, Borneo, and Malaysia, forcing drivers to use their headlights at noon. The haze traveled thousands of miles to the west into the ordinarily sparkling air of the Maldive Islands, limiting visibility to half a mile [0.8 kilometer] at times.

Temperatures reached 108°F [42°C] in Mongolia; Kenya’s rainfall was 40 inches [100 centimeters] above normal; central Europe suffered record flooding that killed 55 in Poland and 60 in the Czech Republic; and Madagascar was battered with monsoons and cyclones.

Okay – It’s going to rain in the Pacific West the next four months. If history is any guide, the rainfall will reach record levels. Extreme flooding is a probable outcome. As the rain/snow falls the epic drought that is now going on will abate. The rivers and reservoirs will refill by the end of February 2016. BUT THEN WHAT?

If history is any guide the extreme El Nino will be followed by a crash in ocean temperatures. By next summer it is increasing likely that the world will be facing La Nina conditions. The 1997 El Nino was followed by one of the longest periods of La Nina conditions in history.

noaaLT

Put this together and what do you get? It now very likely that extreme weather conditions will be with us through this winter. The West and the South will be inundated with rain. But a year from now we will be facing much different conditions. The La Nina that will be with us in 12 months will bring with it very dry conditions for California. This drought is likely to last for years.

 

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Gayle
Gayle

Last winter/spring when Michael Kreiger and others were assuring us that California was returning to a desert, I was saying to myself (I almost posted about it on TBP) “No, there will be massive flooding next year.” I know these things because I’ve seen it over and over. Who knows after that.

yahsure
yahsure

Last time these conditions were here,We had a lot of snow that winter.

Copperhead
Copperhead

I was working in South Lake Tahoe the winter of 97/98. I remember massive snow storms, I am talking 5 to 6 feet overnight a few times. Great winter for skiing/snowboarding.

Welshman
Welshman

If the humidity in N. California is a indicator of a wet winter, it is going to be raining in a few weeks.

Tommy
Tommy

Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t that fuck Soros own NOAA? Credibility gone.

unit472
unit472

What El Nino giveth El Nino is taking away!

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/01/financial-times-us-clean-energy-suffers-from-lack-of-wind.html

Wind power is facing a drought… of wind. Wind power has fallen 6% this year despite a 9% increase in generating capacity. In California two wind farms are down by 16% and 18% respectively. IF, as is forecast, California has a rainy winter, then solar power production will decline too as they sunny skies
of the drought give way to cloudy days!

Stanley
Stanley

@admin –

Gross Suppression Of Science …Former NOAA Meteorologist Says Employees “Were Cautioned Not To Talk About Natural Cycles”

Gross Suppression Of Science …Former NOAA Meteorologist Says Employees “Were Cautioned Not To Talk About Natural Cycles”

todd
todd

i wonder if they actually have any plans to capture and hold that water…you know save up for a non-rainy day.

Kill Bill
Kill Bill

Souther Cal is and was a desert just returning to its geophraical norms.

Souther Cal
Souther Cal

Kill Bill says:

Souther Cal is and was a desert just returning to its geophraical norms.

Who you calling racial KB? Don’t you have some fajitas to tend to?

Maddie's Mom
Maddie's Mom

Drama. Drama. Drama.
El Ninos have been known to fizzle.
Mother Nature will have the last word.

Drama. Drama. Drama.
World News Tonight with David Muir talking about the “crippling” heatwave gripping parts of the country. Forecasted highs today ranging from 89-93 in many states. Waaaaa! Hey David, IT’S STILL SUMMER!!!
Wake me up when they’re talking triple digits…for a week or two.

And then there was the 65mph wind gusts “clawing off” rooftops. I especially liked that one.

Did I mention Drama. Drama. Drama?

Clowns.

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