In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I pondered possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy. In Part 3 I will focus on the economic channel of distress which is likely to be the primary driving force in the next phase of this Crisis.
There are very few people left on this earth who lived through the last Fourth Turning (1929 – 1946). The passing of older generations is a key component in the recurring cycles which propel the world through the seemingly chaotic episodes that paint portraits on the canvas of history. The current alignment of generations is driving this Crisis and will continue to give impetus to the future direction of this Fourth Turning. The alignment during a Fourth Turning is always the same: Old Artists (Silent) die, Prophets (Boomers) enter elderhood, Nomads (Gen X) enter midlife, Heroes (Millennials) enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists (Gen Y) is born. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival.
For those who understand the theory, there is the potential for impatience and anticipating dire circumstances before the mood of the country turns in response to the 2nd or 3rd perilous incident after the initial catalyst. Neil Howe anticipates the climax of this Crisis arriving in the 2022 to 2025 time frame, with the final resolution happening between 2026 and 2029. Any acceleration in these time frames would likely be catastrophic, bloody, and possibly tragic for mankind. As presented by Strauss and Howe, this Crisis will continue to be driven by the core elements of debt, civic decay, and global disorder, with the volcanic eruption traveling along channels of distress and aggravating problems ignored, neglected, or denied for the last thirty years. Let’s examine the channels of distress which will surely sway the direction of this Crisis.
Channels of Distress
“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
Economic distress
Despite incessant corporate fascist propaganda, disguised as positive government economic data, the economic distress for the majority of Americans and majority of the world is soul crushing. The nine charts in the visual below demolish any happy talk about a recovering economy and return to normalcy. They portray a crisis level economic condition. The financial stress on average American families is at punishing levels, masked by the prodigious amount of debt doled out by the government and their Wall Street co-conspirators.
Millennials are buried under $1.3 trillion of student loan debt, with $500 billion of it doled out by the Federal government since 2009 as a ploy to reduce the reported unemployment rate and artificially stimulate spending, to provide the appearance of economic recovery. The falsity of the supposed recovery is borne out in a labor participation rate that is the lowest since 1977, with participation amongst 25 to 54 year olds the lowest in history. With real median household incomes stuck at 1989 levels and far below 2007 peak levels, the stress on middle class families to just pay their monthly bills is intense.
The 2008 Wall Street created fraudulent subprime mortgage debacle which led to millions of foreclosures, non-existent wage growth, young families enslaved in student loan debt, and the Wall Street hedge fund engineered 30% increase in home prices, has resulted in home ownership falling to historic lows and still falling. This is the result of ownership policies, programs and schemes pushed by Democrat and Republican politicians and executed by greedy Wall Street institutions, generating hundreds of billions in fees, interest and profits.
Clearly there is no distress among the .1%, as they summer at their Hamptons beach estates gorging on caviar and toasting their financial brilliance (free Fed money) with $1,000 bottles of Dom Perignone, and bid NYC penthouse real estate prices to astronomical levels. But, as the government apparatchiks at the BLS, BEA, and Census Bureau have reported positive economic data month after month since 2009, the number of people on food stamps has grown from 34 million to 46 million over this same time frame. As the middle class and poor have gotten poorer, the .1% and particularly the .01% have accelerated their capture of the national wealth.
The distress of the lower classes is self-evident and confirmed by a poverty rate of 14.8%, up from 12.5% in 2007, while the middle class has borne the brunt of an Obamacare plan written by paid lobbyists for the health insurance industry, Big Pharma, and hospital corporations. The promised $2,500 per family savings have not materialized, as health insurance premiums have increased by double digits for the last five years and small businesses have stopped covering employees. In reality, since 2008, average family premiums have climbed a total of $4,865. Even the few million Americans added to the health insurance roles are stuck with limited choices and deductibles of $5,000. More people were kicked out of existing employer healthcare plans than were newly added.
The two charts which reveal the true level of economic distress are the Federal Debt and Money Printing charts. We’ve accumulated more debt as a nation in the last seven years ($8 trillion) than we did in the first 219 years of this once proud Republic. We continue to add $1.6 billion per day to our $18.3 trillion national debt. This doesn’t even take into consideration the $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities being left to future generations.
The Fed has printed $3.5 trillion out of thin air in the last six years while keeping interest rates anchored at 0% for their Wall Street owners, with the net impact of punishing senior citizens and other risk averse savers while further enriching their gambling casino owners who dictate the monetary policy for the world. As widowed grandmothers across the land have seen their life sustaining interest income evaporate, even the downwardly manipulated CPI has risen 14% since 2008. Using a real inflation measure, most Americans have seen their daily living expenses rise by more than 30% since 2008, but Yellen and her cronies yammer about deflationary fears.
Economic distress intensifies by the day for average American household as their real income has been falling for 15 years, while the cost of food, energy, healthcare, education, rent, housing, and vehicles have soared. Government imposed property taxes, sales taxes, income taxes, fees, and tolls have risen exponentially over this time frame as the parasite sucks the host dry. Millions of households have been lured into debt by the Wall Street debt machine and their corporate media mouthpieces as consumer debt has grown from $1.5 trillion to $3.4 trillion since 2000, and mortgage debt has grown from $6.5 trillion to $13.5 trillion.
The extreme distress felt by households has been caused by their foolish choice to try and maintain their lifestyles by replacing declining income with debt. They are now enslaved by the chains of $1.3 trillion in student loan debt, $1.1 trillion of auto loan debt, $1 trillion of credit card debt, and $13.5 trillion of mortgage loan debt. Has keeping up with the Joneses been worth it? The stress of meeting the monthly obligations with declining income has become unbearable for many.
The continued decline in real household income reveals the falsity of the unemployment propaganda disguised as legitimate data. The decline in unemployment from 10% in 2009 to 5.1% today is a complete and utter lie. Since 2008 there are 4 million more Americans employed, while 15 million working age Americans have supposedly left the workforce, but the government expects us to believe the unemployment rate is lower today than it was in 2008. Using a consistent labor force participation rate of 66% (where it stayed from 2003 through 2008), the unemployment rate would be over 10%. Using the BLS methodology used prior to 1994, real unemployment exceeds 20%. Those figures support the declining household income story.
Everyone has heard the president boast about the 10 million jobs added since 2009. The politicians like to talk about quantity, but aren’t so keen on discussing quality. The chart below provides the facts regarding jobs added since the recession lows. The top four categories pay less than $10 per hour. This so called economic recovery is being driven by low paying, no benefits, services jobs. These facts also support the declining household income state of affairs.
With a true unemployment rate above 10% and most new jobs paying $10 an hour, it is understandable to an awake, non-delusional citizen why retail sales remain pathetic and national retailers have stopped expanding and begun closing outlets. This is just what the corporate fascist Deep State wants. They want the proletariat, reliant upon debt to sustain their materialistic driven lifestyles and the lower class peasants dependent upon the scraps handed to them by a government, reliant on central bankers to keep the house of cards from collapsing.
The American economy has been gutted. The financialization of our economy began around 1980 and accelerated after the passage of NAFTA in 1994 and the repeal of Glass Steagall in 1999. There has been a giant sucking sound of manufacturing jobs leaving the U.S., replaced by purveyors of paper, derivatives gamblers, and high frequency traders on Wall Street. Producing goods has been replaced by scamming muppets and peddling debt to the masses so they can consume.
We’ve been eating our seed corn for the last 35 years and there is nothing left to sow. We allowed American jobs and production to be replaced by cheap foreign labor and cheap foreign produced products, financed by consumer debt. We allowed mega-corporations and Wall Street banks to capture the economic system, financial markets, judicial, legislative, and executive branches, along with the mainstream media, thereby subjugating the best interests of the country to maximizing profits for the .1%.
The distress of the working middle class has been growing since the early 1970s after Nixon closed the gold window and allowed central bankers and politicians the freedom to print fiat and make unfunded promises to voters. From the end of World War II until 1971 the working class reaped the income gains as their standard of living steadily increased. Since 1971 the income growth of the working class has declined, while the income growth of the top 1% has soared. This was mainly driven by the .1% in the financial class who produced nothing but misery for the bottom 90%.
Unbridled greed and an unquenchable thirst for more and more are the hallmarks of the sociopathic oligarchs who are like blood sucking leeches on the dying carcass of a once great nation. Once the dollar was no longer backed by gold, the ultimate death of the American empire became a forgone conclusion. The weight of lies is wearing on the oligarchs. The Federal Reserve Chairwoman physically falters while spreading monetary falsehoods and the speaker of the house suddenly resigns as he knows the end is drawing near.
Every “solution” the ruling class has implemented since Wall Street blew up the global financial system in 2008 has been sold to the public as beneficial to the people on Main Street. It has slowly dawned on the inhabitants of Main Street that Bernanke, Yellen, Paulson, Geithner, Dodd, Frank, Obama and all D.C. politicians have screwed them. As Main Street’s distress has accelerated, the wealth of anyone associated with Wall Street has soared to obscene levels.
This distress is revealing itself in the poll numbers of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. The flaunting of their immense wealth, political influence, and smug superiority has angered a vast swath of the citizenry. The economic distress perpetrated upon the people by the moneyed interests will be the driving force behind the next phase of this Fourth Turning. The current state of affairs has been seen before, during the previous Fourth Turning about 80 years ago.
“It has always seemed strange to me…The things we admire in men, kindness and generosity, openness, honesty, understanding and feeling, are the concomitants of failure in our system. And those traits we detest, sharpness, greed, acquisitiveness, meanness, egotism and self-interest, are the traits of success. And while men admire the quality of the first they love the produce of the second.” – John Steinbeck – Cannery Row
The solution is not to let politicians redistribute the wealth from the rich to the poor. Crony capitalism must be replaced by true free market capitalism, practiced with integrity, fairness, principled conduct, intelligence, and high moral standards. Profits generated by corporations are not evil, but seeking profits at any cost to society is reckless, shortsighted and immoral. Capitalism without capital is destined for failure. When corporate CEOs, Wall Street bankers, and shady billionaires exercise undue influence over the financial, political and judicial systems, their short-term quarterly profit mindset and voracious appetite for riches override the best interests of the people and create a sick, warped, repressive society. Today our system is in the grasp of psychopaths whose hubris and myopic focus on enriching themselves will ultimately be their downfall.
“This financial system is sick, and is unfortunately and at an increasing pace approaching terminal. I think the problem is due to a simple failure or ‘lack of character.’ It is an old story, and a perennial favorite of the madness of the dark powers of this world. Character provides stability and confidence. When character fails, there is uncertainty and fear. This passive-aggressive posture towards equities in general and risk in particular is because of the lack of reform to create a sustainable, stable recovery fueled by organic demand for growth based across a broader participation amongst the consumers. You cannot have it both ways. You cannot subject the great part of a people to fear, repression, and enforced deprivation on one hand, and expect them to flourish and consume freely on the other.” – Jesse
In Part 4 I will assess the other channels of distress (social, cultural, technological, ecological, political, military) that are likely to burst forth with the molten ingredients of this Fourth Turning, and potential climaxes to this Winter of our discontent.
Tell that to China when you impose a 30% tariff on all imported goods and they have to deal with 1.3 billion angry, unemployed, hungry citizens.
War is the fastest way to reignite an economy and divert attention from the true problems. China won’t start a shooting war with the US outright. They’ll push outward geographically within their sphere of physical power projection. This isn’t something Japan is any fiscal condition to counter, nor any other country in the region.
It’s how small wars have a way of proliferating into larger ones that matters. This doesn’t mean you don’t find ways to counter China’s manipulation of trade, but you certainly don’t do it by announcing a 30% tariff tomorrow. The financial fallout would be huge, and if anyone doesn’t understand this then they don’t understand FX, Japan’s predicament, and the “carry trade,” and from there the derivatives markets.
Backtable…So what did China do before we created the cheap labor market ? Cancer has been known to be cured?
“So what did they do before we created the cheap labor market?”
They planted rice, rode bicycles, and chain-smoked extremely crappy cigarettes.
But that’s not where they are today. A significant and sudden regression of their economy would create deep political turmoil and in all likelihood, civil unrest.
Chinese leadership would have absolutely no problem convincing it’s populace that the blame for all their economic woes lay at the feet of, “The evil American devils.” You see this every time there’s the slightest flare up in international tensions between the two countries.
China could and might very well project force into the Pacific to counter US sanctions, threatening Taiwan and even possibly Japan. And it’s a different playing field on the seas today:
See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21
and here: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/should-america-fear-chinas-carrier-killer-missile-11321
No one knows but the point is that threatening China today is not nearly as simple as leveling tariffs.
Flash- I’m sorry what??? Global crash with global currencies crashing triggering reset causes no pain?
I give up……..
Backtable, China and Russia are going to project force in MENA , Eastern Europe , the Pacific and wherever the fuck else they want…wanna’ know why…GLOBALISM, FREE MARKET , CORPORATISM has left the US nothing but a hollowed out shell of a once industrial giant..Cheap labor has turned America into a nation of slothful , obese idiots who think the rest of the worlds nations where created just to serve them.
If we don’t possess the industrial and military might to back the bullshit and we don’t , power built around paper currency is worthless
Nationalism hasn’t become passe’ just because a bunch of former liberals , turned libertarians now champion open border globalism because “the children ” but truth be known it’s because they know it’s surrender or fight…and fight in such a weakened state brought about by incompetence, debauched PC bullshit and rampant corruption in Federal government is a no winner. Our national leaders are incompetent fools owned completely by international corporate interests…and don’t think China and Russia, who still imprison and put to death corporate criminals don’t know this…they do.
And Russia and China are not the US. They are Nationalist first and global partners second..see BRIC..WTF? cuz’ they love trading in the USFRN so much? This game is not Old Maid, Backtable and Russians are no longer asking permission..especially after the latest attempt by the West to destroy their economy and starve their people out via international trading restrictions.
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-strikes-again-expose-us-disarray-201634156.html
“As US Secretary of State John Kerry was in New York trying to coordinate with his Kremlin opposite number Sergei Lavrov, a Russian officer contacted the US embassy in Baghdad.
His message was simple: Russian jets are about to launch air strikes in Syria, please stay out of their way.
Kerry quickly protested to Lavrov that this was not in the spirit of Moscow’s promise to agree a “de-confliction” mechanism to ensure Russian flights do not interfere with US-led operations.
But the strikes were already underway, potentially altering the balance of power in Syria back in favor of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and Washington was looking at a fait accompli.”
The US government has allowed hook-nosed International bankers to lure our nation into CHECK by convincing our avarice driven political class that all the US has to do to survive in the modern world create currency and the hoi polloi nations will be forced to trade oil, raw resources and consumers goods in exchange for the great privilege of owning our O’ so valuable paper.
Well for any that pay attention to these things know that game is gettign a very old with world powers and soon enough will be tested. What then , Backbabble ? What else can
China and Russia need from US that they can’t live without? Do tell? Technology you say? …phhhhttt.
Sure the two nations that make our chips and rocket engines and regularly hack our “secure” US government/corporate computers will crash and burn without access to our cutting edge…whatevah..
Tariffs have never been the cause of war.It’s the denial of access to resources that are the true cause.See Japan in WWII..
So along those lines, what is it that China and Russia are controlling or gaining control of that the US might desperately need in the near future? Yes we are in weak position…and it ain’t fucking because of Nationalism and America first , regardless what Tiffin, Keynes , Mises, Rothbard or that babbling atheist shit Voltaire sez’…now is it Backbabble?
Bea Lever , English is not your first language is it?
BTW,Backtable you must be new here , because the importance of water based weapon systems vs shore based has been done to death. With the advent of modern missile tech, navies are nothign more than floating death traps. I think we can say with confidence that no ship can survive a salvo surface to ship of missiles traveling at Mach Ten, but this applies not only the USN, but the Chinese as well…globalism without the power to project it will wane.
China’s testing those waters now. But I’m sure their little power displays have nothing to do with Nationalism , they just want everyone to share the earths resources equally …and get along.
China navy calls for United States to reduce risk of misunderstandings
Yahoo News – 3 hours ago
From Yahoo News: China hopes the United States can scale back activities … on
Thursday cited a senior Chinese naval commander as saying.
Chinese warship on its way to Syria
The Hindu – 23 hours ago
China’s First Domestic Aircraft Carrier Almost Certainly Under Construction
USNI News – 13 hours ago
Chinese navy ships entered U.S. waters off Alaska … – CNN.com
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/04/politics/china-ships-alaska-us-waters/
Sep 4, 2015 … (CNN) Chinese navy ships entered U.S. territorial waters off of Alaska last week, coming within 12 miles of the coastline, multiple defense …
Backtable Chamberlain….Nothing to see here but some Globalism in play..Events will foment ideology more than ideology fomenting events…bet on it.
Putin Lectures Obama on Arab Spring: “Do You Realize What You Have Done?”
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more “globalist” fun and games…those Russians must be splitting their sides with uncontrollable laughter about now.
McCain: Arm Syrian Rebels to Shoot Down Russian Planes
Senator accuses Moscow of targeting US-backed groups
Senator John McCain reacted to Russia’s announcement that it had begun launching air strikes targeting ISIS militants in Syria by calling on the White House to arm Syrian rebels with weapons to shoot down Russian planes.
http://www.infowars.com/mccain-arm-syrian-rebels-to-shoot-down-russian-planes/
Remember how well the arming and training of Al Quaeda worked in Afghanistan worked out for US? Yep, we ‘ve those Ruskies right where we wan them..again..they must be real suckers?
https://youtu.be/t8hP_7iCqqQ
Admin- Could you explain to Flash, Star and Backtable that reset comes AFTER collapse and that there is generally a great deal of PAIN involved with said process. Also that this time will be a global collapse resulting in major changes in economic and political systems. I am posting in English, they are reading in some other Trumped up language. Thanks.
BL, in the famous words of Ronald Reagan, there you go again..I’ve never poo pooed the “collapse” scenario , in fact I think it more likely than not.I really don’t know what you’re rambling on about , the adopted TBP theme is Embrace the Doom …didn’t you get the memo?
But ,please tells us again how China and Russia projecting military might around the globe isn’t ***gasp*** nationalism writ large….or is this just more globalist “controlled opposition?
Here’s a clue, BL, currencies come and currencies go, but national /tribal interests remain as long as the people do, which may be why the international shitstain banking interest who control the EU and US are desperately trying to replace the European race with anti-Western third worlders who refuse to assimilate…no proof …just a hunch.
Flash
Chamberlin? Really?
What are you smoking, son? Janet Yellen might like some…
It’s PRECISELY because the world is interconnected that the US will implode and no, it has nothing to do with some effing One World Mantra or Global Village (Idiot) viewpoint you seem to think I convey or believe we ought to bow down to.
It has everything to do with finance and the ability/inability to project power therewith, but more importantly, it has to do with the willingness to do so. China flexing a few ships into our territorial waters or Russia deploying some troops and aircraft to Syria means zip. The Russians have always had an “in” with the Assad family and heavy energy interests there (pipeline issues), and the Chinese have access to a deep-water submarine base in Iran (Straits of Hormuz patrol). MENA will involve the world. It already does. These have been well-known facts for awhile now. So?
Neither Russia nor China have anywhere near the “heavy lift” capability the US does nor do they have the ability to sustain massive supply trains (routes) over long distances. They can regionally project power against smaller foes but they cannot sustain a large scale conflagration without going to permanent war footing (a redirection of their entire economic efforts).
By the way, neither could the US, but we have the systems and infrastructure in place that would enable our production to out-pace theirs and for more sustained period of time. What we DON’T have is a lot of financial leeway. (Yes, here we go again, “WE can PRINT!”). On the other hand, there’s NOTHING Central Bankers love more than a good old fashioned war!
Our present lack of world leadership stems from a panty-waist Man-child that lives an alternate universe of chain-smoking, “feel-good,” id-driven politics. He’s a product of his times, a caricature. His entire administration is the laughing stock of the world. Women in the Army’s Rangers? Dual-gender combat arms units? An openly gay Secretary of the Air Force, [Legal disclaimer: “Not that there’s anything wrong with this…”] and we’re just waiting, any moment now, I can feel it, for the first transgendered USMC commandant! “Oh joy! I can be the first on my block to raise AND salute the USMC colors AND the rainbow coalition’s flags together!” Wow. Truly… just… wow. It would give, “You’ve come a long way, baby!” an entirely new meaning, huh? The history of the sacrifices made by the Corps and those made by the LGBT Coalition, flying side-by-side, together…that’ll be the day. (R. Lee Ermey: “Here’s my .45. Shoot me now.”)
Military power projection is one thing, but what many don’t seem to grasp is that financially our economy is completely linked to the world economy. It’s called “Derivatives.” Case-in-point, if anyone believes Italy or Spain can have a complete economic crisis and it won’t ripple immediately throughout Europe, the US, and China, then they’re seeing the world through a prism of the 1960s. They simply don’t understand the nature of world finance and trade today. And what they REALLY don’t understand is credit.
Nearly seventy percent (70%) of US corporate profits are made outside of the US, more importantly they’re made on the basis of FX manipulation (e.g., the Euro-US exchange rates) and tax laws.
Yeah, that sucks and I NEVER said I liked it or thought it was a good idea. But it’s reality none-the-less, (my entire adult life has been spent despising the assholes that enabled this system) and anyone who thinks we simply “flex a little American know-how and muscle, and show’em” without severe economic fallout is either, a.) knowingly lying or, b.) Just. Doesn’t. Get. It.
For starters there’s a little thing called the P/E multiple and it’s a major component of stock prices. We can’t even bump the Federal funds rate .25% without the markets hyperventilating like Milburn Drysdale every time Jed mentions the word, “withdrawal.”
Let’s step over the interest rate issues for moment, and instead look at US foreign business practices. Claw US corporations back to the states next week and watch what happens to the stock markets, and like dominoes, everything else from there.
Again, I’m not simpering about it, saying we need to be “cautious” and let the world dictate how we conduct our business. I’m simply pointing out that anyone who believes we can make “wave-of-hand” structural changes overnight without precipitating a major crash, (again), doesn’t “get” the world economy today and the impact it will have on ours.
And this fact is what’s omitted when the idea gets bantered around like so much hot air. (Never mind the “Bring’em back to ‘Merica!” mantra. Yeah, doable, but again not with the speed people believe, nor with the outcomes they expect, either. “Jobs for everyone!” (If you believe this you need to study automation and the CENTRAL role it plays in corporate profits.)
Tariffs on China? Naw, this wouldn’t directly impact US corporate earnings on those companies doing business there. No way. “Yay! That’ll show those bastards!” Sure it will. And the next time you peruse Wal-Mart or Target , or any number of other US stores that stock cheap (operative word “cheap”) Chinese crap, watch how fast it’ll impact your wallet, too. Yeah, America’s ready for that. “Didn’t see that coming.”
And, of course, the stained t-shirt-and-pot-belly crowd retort will be, “They’ll do what we damned well tell’em to do and like it, by Gawd! They need us more than we need’em! Slap some tor-riff’s on’em! “
Yup, those pesky Chiner-men had better take lower wages to keep US import prices down or else…
Or else what? Chinese workers don’t get to strike? They don’t get to riot? You think the Chinese government is going to look at the US, look at rioting workers outside their politburo windows , and decide it’s time to start busting heads on “the local slopes,” instead of re-directing that anger elsewhere, and right quick…like maybe a little further out from home…island nations, and what not?
Oh, and while we’re at it let’s stop shipping high-tech anywhere, too, huh? Boeing? Who needs’em. Let Airbus capture the world markets. And all those peripheral vendors, as you so eloquently put it, pfffft. They can get jobs at McDonalds. What’s that? China will “still” demand our technology. Oh yeah, I forgot, because they have no other options anywhere…right. Oh, and they don’t hold $2 trillion+ in US debt obligations, either. You don’t have to like it, flash, I KNOW I sure as hell don’t, but that’s the reality.
I never said I was for a global economy or that I think it’s a good thing. I’m saying that like a Jenga structure, it is now so intertwined that believing you can disengage overnight isn’t going to happen, I don’t care who tells it otherwise. It can be done, but it won’t be done without some sacrifices at the cash register, and in the job markets. And maybe on a battlefield or two. The transition will not be “smooth sailing,” but the message being conveyed doesn’t say this. It never does.
And by the way, that Navy crap you throw up there? Bravo Foxtrot Delta, flash. I’m not saying the US isn’t superior…I’m saying that if no one is telling us lives won’t be lost confronting Russia or China, they’re lying. Unless that what’s you want? It’s a lot easier to be lied to than have to dwell on the gritty realities. What Americans get fed politically, and the reality that comes of it, are two very different things.
Yeah, militarily we’re swinging the biggest stick on the dance floor. None one doubts that for a second. What gets lost in translation is just one question: Are we willing to use it?
If so, why isn’t the public told this could be a very real possibility? Unless, of course, you’re implying we won’t have to (again for reasons that defy logic) because Russia or China will back down. They need us more than we need them? The Russians? Really? Since when? What, they’ll be so scared of having to shutdown all the KFCs and GM dealerships over there? “Pesky damned Rooskies. That’ll learn’em.”
We’re not going to “retract” from world trade without pain. (We’re not going to retract from world trade, period, but that’s a different discussion.) The bottom line is that some of America seems to believe you can have it both ways, like “Lower everyday prices at Walmart with everything made in ‘Murica.” If so, what it doesn’t get told is that the transition comes with a high price tag, both in money and probably lives. I’ve ALWAYS believed there’s absolutely nothing wrong with this – provided you level with people at the outset. Make people understand there’s a price for EVERYTHING. The only question then is simple: Are you willing to pay the price? If so, knock yourself out.
But the political system never delivers this message. It never has. It probably never will. It doesn’t fly so well with the soccer moms and Neocons.
Backbabble, you are welcome here. We like to spank children. You are no dummy, but let me give you a couple of tips. Learn to speak in shorter clips. A paragraph or two. Make your point. What’s killing you is your great stuff is buried in your garbage. Separate it, and let’s hash it out. That’s what makes this place unique. You’ll get smarter. We all will.
Strfcker (great handle, by the way, really conjures up the imagery), I’d say let’s get into a battle of wits but you’re unarmed.
Flash, in answer to your question, yes Russia and China are just more “controlled opposition”. Both countries are members of the G20 and BIS, and India and Brazil will be added to the UN Security Council. Doesn’t mean there won’t be a war, just that whichever side wins militarily, the banksters will still be in control. Putin is not coming to save our asses.
I understand you argument .-borne out of frustration- but like Bea Lever you misunderstand my position.Russia and China have recognized the weakness of our homosexual , community organizer ,SJW activist govenrment and are now directly challenging it’s authority.Debt doesn’t matter when assets can be absorbed. As Martin Armstrong so succinctly pointed out ” I have been warning that this turning point is not in markets, it is centered in government. ”
Do you really think China or Russia give a rats ass about Boeing’s market share or technology ?
I feel push is coming to shove and 2 trillion dollars of digital currency is not as important to China as the the resources a strong military can acquire. I’m not geopolitical astute enough to calculate the game required for the US to come out on top China and Russia ‘s current play on MENA , but I know enough that this ball once by dropped US will have dire consequences for the quality of life in these United States.
AnarchoPagan Flash, in answer to your question, yes Russia and China are just more “controlled opposition”.
So the entire world are slaves to hook-nosed bankers and no men in the know ever plan to rise above?
flash,
Rise above what? Putin seems to be doing quite well for himself; how many dachas do you suppose he’s got? Ask yourself, why has Russia never called BS on the US government’s many lies? Putin has publicly claimed to have names, dates and stories of the Ukraine putschists; what’s he waiting for to release the info? Why did the Western bloc give Russia technology and military aid all through the Cold War? Could it be they’re all on the same team? To be honest, I think Putin is a nationalist who’s just trying to secure the best place he can for Russia within the new world order, knowing that he can be replaced.
Flash, I think you misunderstand my position, as well.
starfcker: I already KNOW you do, so don’t bother reading…(“That boy, I say that boy sez the fewest things with the most damn words of anybody I ever met!”)
I don’t have any frustration. I am saying, have been saying all along, precisely what Martin Armstrong is saying – the final, (possibly the next, but definitely the final) crisis will be in sovereign debt.
The derivatives markets implode as sovereign debt does. They are intertwined and interconnected to the tune of hundreds of trillions of dollars. The next “subprime” crisis a IS sovereign debt crisis, across all advanced economies up to and including the US. The US will in all likelihood be the last economy standing but regardless, default is the final outcome.
Since 2008, China has injected the equivalent of $29 trillion into their “ghost town” economy. The largest issuance of debt in the history of the world in just eight years. And what natural resources does China have that you speak of? Do they not import steel? Oil? Pot ash? How about copper? Aluminum? Borax? They don’t have these resources in sufficient numbers to run their own economy at the levels they’ve grown accustomed to, much less conquer the world. With such a massive debt load, they’re SOL in this regard. It’s going to take along time to wash the domestic debt out of their system.
Russia is no economic powerhouse. Its a basket case internally. Ever been to Moscow, flash? Do you know what the average Russian lives on per month? Have you seen how the average family of four gets by? I have. It sucks, pure and simple. Americans have no idea what deprivations in daily living are by comparison to Russian standards.
By US standards their lives are one long (well, vodka-shortened) fight with an ugly stick. Life in Russia is a lot harder than most people know and as result Russians are a lot more resilient, too. Putin himself is one shrewd Pakhan: You don’t get to be worth an estimated $90 billion on a government salary, the US equivalent of $150,000/yr., without knowing your way around the geopolitical cell block, so to speak.
Russia and China are “taking advantage” of their situations, as you put it, for two very different reasons. Russia because of US meddling in the Ukraine, and also in an attempt to protect pipeline interests (The Friendship pipeline) that will cross northern Syria. This is big money and they’re doing it now because, as you accurately note, our “gomoseksualist” in office is on his way out, and they know there’s a window of time in which they can throw their weight around. Within any luck (for them) some of it will stick, and they’ll come out of it all the better off for having done so, both economically and strategically.
The Chinese are pushing hard because their leadership knows their ass is in a sling economically. They’re also mad as hell about perceived US manipulation in their financial markets, as well as with our ire over their manipulation of their Yuan. They resent the US telling them how to run their economy when the US economy itself is a bloated debt-disaster. What a joke – we ship them scrap metal for a pittance, they melt it down into trinkets and “gua-gua,” and then ship it back to us via Wal-Mart and Target where we “buy” it back from them on credit that THEY. FLOAT. US! (“Hah-hah! You var-wee funny Cha-wee”…yeah, that’s hysterical even.)
So yes, sovereign debt is exactly the issue. Problems in markets require central bank backing, which can ONLY come from sovereign-debt issuance. Money may come out of thin but the accounting requires it be “exchanged” for sovereign debt, itself printed out of thin air. Tidy little “thin-air” system, that.
The problem is that there’s too much of it. And the amount of it is accelerating, all under artificially controlled interest rates. This cannot go on a whole lot longer, e.g., in the US, compressed rates are crushing the largest pension funds into the ground (anyone with experience in bond laddering in the pension/insurance industries knows what I’m talking about ). And who bails out pension funds? Yup, the PBIA, with the Fed hovering in the background…ready to assist with funds generated, once again, via sovereign debt issuance.
Tariffs won’t ‘fix” anything, because tariffs would only accelerate sovereign debt defaults in foreign countries all the faster. You’re arguing that slaping tariffs on China and/or Russia won’t create any problems for “them.” So what? Tariffs on them would automatically trip problems in peripheral governments.
Look at who China buys from…Australia, maybe? Chile? Brazil? The list is long and diverse. And as those government’s sovereign debt defaults, so goes the derivatives market, and as the derivatives markets go, so goes the credit markets, and if anyone thinks you can halt the credit markets in the US and there won’t be any fallout, well, they’re in for one HUGE effing awakening. It goes a lot farther, and hits your world a lot faster than the Fed going “Full Oz” and pushing a few buttons and slinging extra zeros around.
I suspect in many ways, flash, we are arguing two sides of the same coin. Once default hits, I don’t see the US regaining its global dominance anytime soon, but neither do I see any other country waiting in the wings do so either. No other country has the ability to do so and sustain it, especially if it doesn’t control the world’s reserve currency. Even after global sovereign default, the US is still in the best position to retain its dominant role. What that will look like by then I don’t think anyone knows. But I suspect its going to look very different form today.
Personally, I think Backtable is making sense. The economy is global. The US simply cannot exit stage right by implementing tariffs galore. It would decimate the high tech industry, and replace it with what – the equivalent of cheap Chinese crap?
Flash,
Allow me to demonstrate your myopic view that whites are generally more intelligent than blacks in this country: It was extremely obvious to black people that Bush was lying when he said Hussein was an national security threat to our country. Meanwhile-white people (particularly those that believe they are vastly more intelligent than blacks) lapped that B.S. up like white on rice(pun intended).
An honest discussion about the state of this might start when whites stop believing superiority in numbers equals superior intelligence. You just think differently. You’re not the only ones in this country with ideas on how to make this a better country. But you think you are.
So let’s have that honest discussion Flash. Let’s start with you seeing the forest for the trees. The elite never gave a damn about you. They’re just more obvious about it now.
West – black folk wanting month free shit us not a fucking discussion I want to have. Thanks anyway, you moron.
AnarchoPagan -Putin is a nationalist who’s just trying to secure the best place he can for Russia.
Thanks, that’s all I’ve been saying all along..Nationalism is rising and Putin and Xi Jinping are definitely in the game. And you may well be right that money will be the ultimate authority in this geopolitical game ,which you and BL refer to as “controlled opposition meaning , one master , one set of rules, yet that remains to be seen. I don’t disagree, just skeptical.
AP , anon was I
Flash.
Tariffs led to the ugliest war this country ever endured, The Civil War.
Read Martin Armstrong, here; http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/tag/tariff-law
Damn spell checker on my phone.
Meant to say “black folk wanting more free shit is not a conversation I want to have”
I have to say thats some fine piece of analysis .You certainly have a gift of making all the pieces fit with the very lest verbosity.That said , your rundown of the brewing geopolitical shitstorm follows logic to the letter and as loopy noted paints a damn gloomy pic.
And you’re correct. We are arguing the same shit meets fan scenario,but the difference is I was fishing for solutions and you seem to be for kicking to can until the edge of the abyss is all left. Protectionist measure may be too little too late for US ,but allowing the middle class to be destroyed thus turning the nation into another two class shitholes reminiscent of a third world nations where the uber rich control everything and the poor live like rats is just as unacceptable.
Since you seem to have a good grip on the geopolitical scene, you should consider asking admin for posting privileges and contribute an article on the subject of Sovereign debt and maybe… we do we go from here.
This subject seems to have even the great mind of Martin Armstrong perplexed.
“This is why I have stated that this was never my theory of how the world works; it was my discovery. With this turning point focused in government and our political economy rather than a specific market in the private sector, we really need to invest a lot more time to research this phenomenon.”
Martin Armstrong
Westie…Africans have destroyed not only physically , but economically, every neighborhood, nation and culture they’ve been imported into or invaded. The evidence is in. There’s nothing left to argue.
Backtable, I was wondering when you where going to toss North’s tariff against the South out. as the cause of the War of the States. I agree , but many will argue otherwise.
Great argument on tariffs as the cause here:
http://www.ncwbts150.com/TariffOriginsoftheWar.php
Flash.
You have me. It is unfortunately verbose because it’s (SHTF) a wickedly complex, ephemeral subject with no clearly defined edges. And I am NOT saying my perspective is right – no one can do that precisely because there are simply too many facets to the problem.
Your arguments of power projection, especially with Russia, could be dead-on; if we get one more milquetoast-twinkie Fearless Leader, sipping lattes with whipped cream, we are honestly and for truly fucked. To paraphrase James Kunstler;
“A leader who thinks they can deal with Vladimir Putin by treating him as though he’s the president of the Cement Workers’ Union ought to give thoughtful people the vapors.” (Better still, “I’d sooner watch a gerbil in a terrarium with a King Cobra.”)
Point being we need someone smart AND tough to deal with both the Chinese and the Russians. It doesn’t matter what the unicorn-riding, lisping PC crowd “wants to believe.”
The hard, cold fact is that world leaders get “strength.” It’s a universal language, spoken everywhere. And “strength” they respect.
On the world stage today maybe we need a little more. As the saying goes,
“I don’t want to be respected. I want to be feared.”
In the end, you are right, Flash. Its not the arguments that matter, certainly not mine. It’s what we do as a nation going forward, both during and after the SHTF. This part is completely unclear, so we’d better have the right leadership to see the process through.
Personally, I want a future that by default requires people to “own” their lives instead of one that enables them to wallow around like mindless sheep on some bum-fuck, run-down farm.
We shall see.
Backtable -You have me. It is unfortunately verbose because it’s (SHTF) a wickedly complex,.
There was no sarcasm. I’m sincere. You comment said more in 5000 word than some commenters say 10000 word post I’ve read here…harrummpp…RE..
I was just saying, I’d be interested in reading more. Thats all.
Thanks, Admin, for another fine post. The reader comments are worth the effort to review, all 134 of them, as they are as good of a debate as we’ll get, given the media circuses that pass for political conversation today.
I hate to say it, but sometimes I wish, that Putin was an American, warts and all. he gets it and puts his country first, ahead of ideology, etc. Caesarism is often an answer to crisis, and Trump fits that mold beter than anyone else today. He’s really about as close to a Putin as our politics can offer, and the craving for order, for someone to ‘do something,’ to believe in something, to have the confidence to believe in their own success, is intoxicating after years of failure, hubris, doubt, inaction, betrayal and contempt from the ruling elites. Like war, sometimes it’s best not to start things in politics that have a way of ending that no one predicted when they planned their beginning.
@ssgconway I understand what you are saying but wonder if anything we see in political theater can be believed. Don’t forget that Putin is old school KGB. And Trump is reality TV.
stretching a little , but funny still..
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Putin knows the world’s central banks will default.
When the European Central Bank does, he’ll play like Europe like a pair of 88s, deftly and with finesse, because he can. He’ll be able to project power into MENA at will because of its proximity to Russia, and Europe will be completely powerless to lift a single finger (in many ways they already are).
He gets “The Friendship Pipeline” completed and secured across northern Syria and when it comes to selling energy to Europe, like Al Swearengen in Deadwood, it’ll be, “You don’t tell me how to talk in my own fuckin’ place. Now, here’s my counter offer to your counter offer – go fuck yourself.” Maybe not quite in those words. Then again…
He also knows default will come to the US and that will mean even more opportunity for power projection in his neighborhood, i.e., The Ukraine, for starters.
He’s got the savvy, the balls, and time on his side. And he proves that global politics isn’t for amateurs: You pull up to the playing field with a busload of pulpwood hammer throwers, or you get your clocked cleaned, right hard.
And we’re fielding what? “Mr. Soft-serve…”?