Riptide

If President Trump is to put America first, he must end its offensive wars.

Guest Post by Robert Gore at Straight Line Logic

For most of human history, the costs of waging offensive war have been roughly equivalent to the costs of defending against it. Since World War II, costs have shifted dramatically in favor of defense. Ironically, during this time the US has waged more offensive wars than any other nation. Although members of the military recognize the shift, it is seldom acknowledged by the civilian command structure. Even those who understand generally assume that greater US resources and wealth make up for the cost disparity.

In football or basketball, if your team has the ball, you are the offense. In warfare, if you are in another country, you are the offense. An invasion, difficult as it may be, is invariably the easy part. Anyone who knew military history winced when President George W. Bush gave his 2003 Iraq victory speech, Mission Accomplished banner stretched behind him on an upper deck of an aircraft carrier. If, to give the neoconservatives their stated case, the mission was to convert Iraq to a thriving, peaceful, multicultural democracy, fourteen years later that mission remains unaccomplished, the prospect just as remote as it was before the US invaded Iraq and deposed Saddam Hussein.

THE FOLLY OF WAR

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The US “victory” in Iraq created winners and losers. Previously marginalized Shiites who formed the new government were the winners. Ousted Sunni Ba’athists who had stocked Hussein’s government and military were the losers, and set about upending the new order. In their war against the US and its newly installed Iraqi government, they had every advantage defenders have playing on their home territory. They knew the territory and the language, drew on local Sunni support, blended in with the “civilian” population, and used women and children operationally, pages straight from the Viet Cong playbook.

Which brings up “asymmetric warfare,” modern code for the perpetual invader lament that the other side doesn’t play by the rules. (Dating back to at least the American revolution, when British formations were decimated by “terrorist” revolutionaries hiding behind trees.) In the Middle East there are no enemy tank brigades, regular combat units, air forces, or navies in which the US can engage decisive battles a la World War II. It’s guerrilla warfare: the enemy plants IEDs or land mines; shoots down expensive tanks and helicopters with shoulder-fired missiles; inflicts random terror and mayhem; petrifies opponents with beheadings and torture; amasses for battles in which they fiercely fight and often inflict costly losses, and if they ultimately lose, a month or two later return to contest the same territory with the same ferocity.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the home field defenders have staying power; it’s their country and they aren’t going anywhere. As Vietnam and the Middle East demonstrate, invaders get tired of wasting blood and treasure. Their populations reject the government’s tired assurances of just-around-the-corner victory and political support evaporates. A substantial portion of the population the invaders are supposedly liberating doesn’t support them. The governments that host the invaders are invariably corrupt puppets. The guerrillas may never win a straight-up battle (the US has batted a thousand in straight-up battles in Vietnam and the Middle East), but if they inflict enough pain, the invaders eventually leave.

It is a mistake to assume the outcomes of US interventions are different from the real, as opposed to the stated, intentions of their proponents. The military and intelligence sector has become the biggest annex of the welfare state, enjoying the advantage that most people don’t even realize it feeds from that trough. US military and intelligence budgets are huge in comparison to other nations’, far in excess of what would be necessary if the “defense” function was limited to defense of our country, and President Trump has vowed to increase them. Long-lasting offensive wars are the ultimate crony socialist boondoggle and jobs program.

Then there are the lucrative opportunities interventions present for corruption, extortion, theft, and other criminal enterprises (US drug dealing was rife during the Vietnam war). That the military-industrial-intelligence complex is willing to sacrifice the lives of US soldiers and innocent civilian populations to line their own pockets tells you all you need to know about its morality. That’s an ethic compatible with residence on Death Row, not a free, peaceful, and just society.

In his first few days in office, President Trump has perhaps avoided one interventionist pitfall, but not another.

First, as I wrote about in my last column, the initial draft of the executive order entitled “Protecting the Nation From Attacks From Foreign Nationals” contained a section raising the possibility of creating “safe zones” in Syria. The final version omits this dangerous plan. This is significant: what it means is that the Trump administration is going to resist calls by the interventionist media to “do something” about the Syrian civil war and is opting instead to keep its footprint in the region lighter than the War Party would prefer. “Safe zones” are off the table, at least for now.

Justin Raimondo, “Spare Us the Theatrics,” (1/30/17, antiwar.com

This is encouraging, but if Trump does disengage from the Middle East, it’s likely to be two steps forward, one step back. The administration has still not entirely renounced the Syrian safe zone idea. And the first US soldier killed on Trump’s watch was with a special forces commando team in Yemen, on an operation Trump authorized. What are special forces doing in Yemen? It’s a country of no strategic importance to the US embroiled in essentially a Shiite-Sunni sectarian war, the local factions serving as proxies for Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia (to which the US has supplied billions worth of armaments). The US is grabbing the same tar baby on which it’s stuck in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Libya, and Somalia

Those last five countries (and Yemen and Iran), are on Trump’s executive order banning travel by their citizens to the US. In the weird world of John McCain and his neoconservative cohorts, the ban will stoke terrorism against the US, but commando raids, bombs, and drone strikes are met with no-blowback equanimity by the raided, bombed, and droned. The thousands protesting the ban have shown a similar unconcern for all the non-immigrating victims, alive or dead, of US offensive wars. These wars were perhaps questioned by some of the protestors when they were Bush’s, but endorsed or silently acquiesced to when they were Obama’s. They have left the US caught in the riptide of a historic shift in the relative costs of offensive and defensive warfare.

The only way to avoid being carried further out to sea is to quit waging offensive wars. The marker of his foreign policy success will be the extent to which President Trump frees the US from its many tar babies and avoids getting stuck on new ones. If he fails and adds to the blood and treasure the US has already lost, he will have failed to put America first.

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Hollywood Rob

Yepper. You hit that nail perfectly. Thanks for a great article.

Robert E. Moran

Terrific piece. Absolutely correct.

Anonymous
Anonymous

So far, the only offensive war I’ve seen Trump willing to engage in is the one against the leftist powers that have claimed our nation as theirs alone.

Other than that, I see NATO and our participation in it as being the most likely cause in any new involvements, various world powers (private as well as governments) using the ME against us being the next most likely.

It’s going to be hard to avoid this, I don’t think Trump wants involvement in foreign wars but it may end up very hard to avoid them.

Barney
Barney

Iran

MadMax1861
MadMax1861

OT, time to cancel your Netflix accounts:
Reed Hastings, Netflix CEO, on Saturday, January 28, 2017 :

“Trump’s actions are hurting Netflix employees around the world, and are so un-American it pains us all. Worse, these actions will make America less safe (through hatred and loss of allies) rather than more safe. A very sad week, and more to come with the lives of over 600,000 Dreamers here in a America under imminent threat. It is time to link arms together to protect American values of freedom and opportunity.”

Fuck him. I cancelled my Netflix account.

Anonymous
Anonymous

Do the same with Amazon.

They’ve jumped on the anti-Trump pro Muslim bandwagon too.

unit472
unit472

The only reason we have a Islamo-refugee problem ( and before that a Central American, Vietnamese and Korean refugee ‘problem) is because of our involvement in those areas civil wars. Now wherever our military shows up asylum seekers and sexual predators from the State Department, eager to accomodate them, are right behind.

That alone is reason enough to stay out of the middle-east and Africa. It creates an avenue of escape for the dregs of humanity from their benighted region to the US. If Great Britain could engage in endless wars during its Imperial heydey it was only because millions of natives did not and could not follow British soldiers back to England. The steamship and air travel has changed all that such that a foul smelling savage right out of the stone age can be flown 6,000 miles and 6,000 years into the future in a day!

Ace
Ace

An astute observation. There was a similarly prescient argument made by a gent around the time we “liberated” the Philippines. Alas, I’m away from my desktop now and cannot supply the link.

b
b

Disengage from the Middle East. It is cheaper just to buy the oil and gas. We have done nothing in 15 years to help the region or the people in it. We are “Toxic Nation”.

Anonymous
Anonymous

We have more than the ability to supply our petro needs from currently developed producing fields.

And the money stays here in our economy instead of there in theirs if we do.

Ag
Ag

We may have local oil and gasin US, but these external engagements are for the EU and Japan, our largest trading partners, and also to keep the petro dollar as the primary currency of trade.

without trade, there is no western lifestyle, it is back to agrarian lifestyles.
without the petrodollar there is no global trade at the current levels.

and without a permanent state of chaos in the ME, there is no MIC.

it is a self fulfilling arrangements of actions and re-actions, all designed to create a reason to dip into the wallets of the little people (to benefit them)

See, our masters really care for each and every one of us. They think about us all the time, and wonder when we are gonna start figuring out their grand master plans.

PatrioTEA
PatrioTEA

Based on Trump’s campaign, it would seem that he would generally agree. Let’s wait and see what he does and support him accordingly. He’s going to need our support. I suggest a massive, march on DC to support President Trump, or else we’ll have Barry or Hillary back. Would you rather have that?

Iska Waran
Iska Waran

I don’t think marches accomplish anything these days. It was one thing for Gandhi to march for independence. By the mid ’40’s the British were disinclined to try to retain their empire. When Nigeria & India and the rest of the British empire wanted independence, the Brits essentially said “fine, it’s no sweat off of my balls”. Thus there was no “Battle of Lagos” or “Battle of Delhi”.
MLK marched and the civil rights laws ensued, but only because Americans – especially those in overwhelmingly white areas – didn’t care to put up any struggle against the civil rights laws.

Who would a “march for Trump” try to convince? They’re inconvincible. In 2017, marching mostly represents a failure of imagination. Did the pussy hat parade convince you of anything? Me neither.

Ace
Ace

The pussyhat parade. Now that was a grand affair. It did persuade me of something: that there is simply no bottom limit to female stupidity. I mean, can you believe I just typed the word “pussyhat”?!!

I only wish I’d thought of the pussyhat. Financial success would finally have been mine. I was surprised that that “Stay cunty” sign didn’t sell like hotcakes. I thought it would fly off the shelves.

The parades could only have been more excellent if there had been a sea of signs declaring that “Trump demeans women!!”

Iska Waran
Iska Waran

Our military action in Afghanistan today is aimed at “defeating the Taliban”. I don’t think it can be accomplished, but at least we arguably have a grievance against the Taliban for harboring Al Qaeda while they plotted 9/11. In Iraq, we’re fighting ISIS, and we’ll hate ISIS, right. Seems to me the first conflict to disengage from is Yemen.

uncle fester
uncle fester

i believe there is a taliban saying in Afganistan: Americans have wristwatches, but we have time. good essay Robert.

Suzanna
Suzanna

Iska,
The Taliban are the good(er) guys. We are there to harvest the
poppy crop and process it there too. Then a good share gets
“sold” in the US from tiny towns to big cities. There is no “war”…
there is only drug money. There might be rare earth minerals also.
For all we know, Afghanistan may be a hub for
the lucrative organ harvesting industry.

Robert, excellent writing as usual! Thanks.
Suzanna

Angus
Angus

Wow another arm chair strategist from Romper Room. Tell us all about your time at Staff College where you went for advanced studies. I always love hearing from Rambo wanna bes.

Tony
Tony

Good article, I agree with getting us the flock out of these places. It doesn’t take a war college graduate to figure this stuff out. Bathhouse barry got us deep into too many tar baby places while screwing up the whole mess. Let’s get all the MB out of our government while we are at it.

Miles Long
Miles Long

Tar babies? Very racist Robert. Keep up the good work.

Boat Guy
Boat Guy

All the excuses to become involved militarily that I have witnessed in my life time of 62 years has ultimately proven to be full of shit ! Korea , Vietnam , Iraq and so on and so on and what have we got ? Debt out the ass a series of countries all fucked up and dead and seriously injured or mamed physically and mentally for life and taxpayers add that to the debt .
You want a war send your kid and you pay the freight and the damage if your kid is lucky enough to return home

nkit
nkit

Robert, a very good article that I believe most here agree with.. The Middle East is a mess, but we helped to make that mess and we have a petrobuck or two invested, unfortunately, or not – depending upon your point of view.

Yemen is a fustercluck and hodgepodge of really bad actors where we have had boots on the ground (on and off) since 2009. To claim that it is a country of no strategical importance however is to deny that the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait (The Gate of Tears) is insignificant in terms of strategical geographical importance, in my opinion. Twice, last October, the Iranian-backed Houthis have fired on the American Navy in the Strait. Something like 40 million barrels of oil move through the strait daily in or out of the Red Sea either towards the Mediterranean or the Indian Ocean and beyond.

The Houthis, whose slogan is: “God is Great, death to the U.S., death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam” don’t seem like the kind of people that we need trying to control ingress and egress to or from the Red Sea (and Suez Canal) or control of the Gulf of Aden. If the Iranian-backed Houthis, that fired Iran-made Noor anti-ship cruise missiles at the U.S Navy from northern Yemen, can control the roughly 16 mile wide Dact-el-Mayun channel west of Perim they can put a serious hurt on the world.

I don’t like our participation in Yemen either, but to believe that we can just up and walk away and wash our hands and our feet of that section of the globe after all this time, and all the droning, bombing and murdering is being a bit overly optimistic, especially if one believes that decision will be respected by all of those (Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Houthis) that we have been fighting with for many years and those we have backed. We are in too deep at this point, and we ain’t fishing for bluegills.

MuckAbout

It took 500,000 American deaths to convince the South that they should give up their slaves and whatever else the Civil War was fought over.

I have a personal opinion that the extra-necessary wars that we get into are used by the military/industrial complexes to test equipment, train combat experienced soldiers and feather their own nests.

Hence the Special Ops mission in Yemen. Hell, it’s there and we know of a bad that needs killing! Climb on that helicopter or their stupid rotary wing aircraft and go get the bastard! Makes for great training opportunities against live targets.

acetinker
acetinker

Muck,
Interesting that you should bring the War of Northern Aggression into this convo.
Slavery was already obsolete by 1861 due to mechanization, just as robotics displaces human labor today.
The issue at hand was taxation without representation. Sound familiar?
A fellow named Acton said, and I paraphrase, that the issue which has cascaded down the centuries, and which must be eventually resolved- is the people -v- the banks.
Forget all that other shit and focus your energies on that one, simple premise. Jesus was crucified for much the same. It’s kinda important.

Suzanna
Suzanna

Muck,
You are correct.

uncle fester
uncle fester

i have a friend who served in Viet Nam. he has maintained all these years that the whole thing was a weapons testing excercise.

starfcker
starfcker

Nice article Robert. Offensive wars have gutted the treasury and corrupted everything noble we thought we were. I do think the exit strategy is in play, safe zones created by us, and paid for by the Saudi’s and the Emirates. I think it’s already hashed out.

Ace
Ace

Once al-Qaida and ISIS hear about the safe zones we might create they’ll know to keep out. Americans know how to solve problems!

Pete
Pete

The USA is still fighting WW2 : Wikipedia says there are still about 100k troops in Europe,
40k in Japan, 60k in the Pacific, 24k in South Korea. Perhaps its time to think about actually ending WW2 ?
Send half of ’em to El Paso & San Antonio.

Suzanna
Suzanna

excellent Pete, excellent idea.

Star,
you are a star thinker/a smartie.

Ace, you are a smartie as well. Dig one step further,
and check out ESF. Secret slush fund administered by the
Treasury.

Exchange Stabilization Fund – ESF Definition | Investopedia

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/exchangestabilizationfun... Proxy Highlight

Money available to the U.S. Treasury Department primarily used for participating in the foreign-exchange market in an attempt to maintain currency stability.

Francis Marion

Robert,

It occurred to me many years ago that during elections we are often presented with two alternatives:

The first alternative involves voting for hardcore socialists who crack down at home and abroad and the second on voting for softer socialist neocons or variations thereof who more or less leave me alone but who still want to wage war elsewhere.

It’s a poor choice. I think it is one many American’s (at least subconsciously) hoped they dodged when they voted for Trump. Personally, my feeling is if it’s political you can’t trust it any further than you can throw it and in that sense, you’re correct in what you’ve written. On the other hand, Rome wasn’t built in a day so I guess it’s one day at a time for now… and whatever other cliches I’ve forgotten…

Addition: If Trump has accomplished anything it is to expose the far left for what it truly is. Ugly. And I’m enjoying every minute of it.

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