The Syrian Air Base Attack

Guest Post by Scott Adams

As I blogged yesterday, the claim that Assad ordered a chemical attack on his own people in the past week doesn’t pass my sniff test. For Assad to order a gas attack now – while his side is finally winning – he would have to be willing to risk his life and his regime for no real military advantage. I’m not buying that.

But let’s say the world believes Assad or a rogue general under his command gassed his own people. What’s an American President to do? If Trump does nothing, he appears weak, and it invites mischief from other countries. But if he launches 59 Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian military air base base within a few days, which he did, the U.S. gets several benefits at low cost:

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1. President Trump just solved for the allegation that he is Putin’s puppet. He doesn’t look like Putin’s puppet today. And that was Trump’s biggest problem, which made it America’s problem too. No one wants a president who is under a cloud of suspicion about Russian influence.

2. President Trump solved (partly) for the allegation that he is incompetent. You can hate this military action, but even Trump’s critics will call it measured and rational. Like it or not, President Trump’s credibility is likely to rise because of this, if not his popularity. Successful military action does that for presidents.

3. President Trump just set the table for his conversations with China about North Korea. Does China doubt Trump will take care of the problem in China’s own backyard if they don’t take care of it themselves? That negotiation just got easier.

4. Iran might be feeling a bit more flexible when it’s time to talk about their nuclear program.

5. Trump’s plan of a Syrian Safe Zone requires dominating the Syrian Air Force for security. That just got easier.

6. After ISIS is sufficiently beaten-back, the Syrian government will need to negotiate with the remaining entities in Syria to form a lasting peace of some sort that keeps would-be refugees in place. Syria’s government just got more flexible. It probably wants to keep the rest of its military.

7. Israel is safer whenever an adversary’s air power is degraded.

On the risk side of the equation, we have the possibility of getting into war with Russia. I’d put those odds at roughly zero in this case because obviously the U.S. warned Russia about the attack. That means we knew their reaction before we attacked. And it was a measured response of the type Putin probably respects. I expect Russia to complain a lot but continue to partner with the U.S. against ISIS.

If it turns out that the sarin gas attack that sparked this military action didn’t come from Assad, it doesn’t much matter. President Trump will bank all of the benefits above even if the attack turns out to be a hoax. We know Assad had some chemical weapons at one point, and probably used them. No one will be crying for Assad if the attack was unnecessary. And realistically, the public will never be 100% sure who was behind the attack.

I doubt this is the first step in a larger plan for war to depose Assad. But if Assad thinks it might be, we have a stronger position over there.

I’m not pro-war, so this military action alarms me the same way it alarms most people. But objectively speaking, the risk-reward ratio for this attack on Syria’s air field was exceptionally good. You rarely see so many benefits arise from one limited military action.

I thought President Trump would hold off on military action in the service of regime change. That still seems to be the case. But once our intelligence services traced the plane that allegedly dropped the gas back to a specific air base, it opened the option that Trump took. I didn’t realize that our military knows what every aircraft in Syria is doing at all times. That’s impressive, bordering on hard-to-believe.

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CCRider
CCRider

So if it ends here SA is a prophet. If it ends like it did 100 years earlier to the day then he’s just another warmonger extolling the virtues of slaughter. We’ll see.

Fergus, ex SGR
Fergus, ex SGR

Odds on another exciting military adventure. I’m giving 100-1 that this winds up with expanded US role in the Mid East with the same results we saw at the end of WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, Balkans, Iraq. There is no upside to a military strike that doesn’t take out an enemy completely. It does create an enemy waiting to strike back.

catfish
catfish

“But once our intelligence services traced the plane that allegedly dropped the gas back to a specific air base, it opened the option that Trump took. ”

Clutching at straws – you’ve been neo-conned sucker

kokoda - the most deplorable
kokoda - the most deplorable

“But once our intelligence services traced the plane that allegedly dropped the gas back to a specific air base..”

Scott, did you leave very simple critical thinking on the kitchen table? Just because the US tracked the specific plane from a specific airbase to the actual bombing site, which was also the site of the gas release, doesn’t prove that the bombs contained any toxic gas.

Anonymous
Anonymous

Or that it didn’t drop a conventional bomb that hit an ISIS or other Muslim WMD production facility.

Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog

Or that there was no fucking gas.

Wardawg
Wardawg

Well, must admit, that’s the only upbeat analysis I’ve run across today ?

Credit
Credit

tomahawk missile made by Raytheon, which spends $5 million/year on mostly ex gov. employee lobbyists. 59 fired tomahawks = $250 million expenditure in an $11 billion total program cost.
“if you build it, they will come”

Robert E. Moran

Excellent take. I also like Credit’s cost analysis and how it relates to the Deep State and MIC.

P2
P2

But where did the 30-odd missiles, that missed their targets, land? On more civilians?

Fergus, ex SGR
Fergus, ex SGR

Hopefully on Tehran or Saudi. And on their civilians. We can blame it on bad drivers and trucks.

Miles Long
Miles Long

Do we get a refund for the failed weaponry? I’m sure the receipt is around here somewhere… a credit at least?

Sancho
Sancho

Yes, it’s a real pitty that half dozen people, that did nothing to any American, will be buried today because of the needs of Trump’s public image.
Apart from that pesky moral issue, you are right. Trump is a genius.

Fleabaggs
Fleabaggs

Both sad and revolting.
I was giving him a little bit of a pass till now. I’m on record as saying I don’t trust him due to his friends and who his kids married. Its not fun being right about it.

Southern Sage
Southern Sage

A total hoax. Assad did nothing but bomb jihadis. To hell with Trump.

wdg
wdg

Let’s call a spade a spade. The US just bombed a sovereign nation that neither threatened nor attack her, in clear violation of the Geneva Convention on War, the Christian Just War Theory and the US Constitution. The justification is laughable since: 1) this alleged gas attack was not yet investigated as to cause and probably represents a False Flag event, and 2) the numbers killed pale in comparison to the over hundred thousand killed in Iraq alone not to mention Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and Yemen. The Iraq invasion was justified by Weapons of Mass Destruction that never existed and were known to not exist. Americans need to face up to the fact that the US has evolved from a Constitutional Republic into an Evil Empire that stalks the world like a great satanic hegemon invading innocent countries, destroying nations, overthrowing governments, assassinating leaders, fomenting conflict, orchestrating terrorist false-flag attacks, rigging elections and plundering nations. The US government in embodiment of unspeakable EVIL. BTW, close to 66% of respondents in a Drudge Report poll support Trump’s decision to bomb Syria. Keep in mind that the Drudge Report is viewed as a “conservative” site. One can only conclude that brainwashed Americans are getting what they deserve but God help the rest of humanity.

NtroP
NtroP

I too was very surprised by the Drudge poll.
I voted no and expected the opposite of what the support/not support results showed.
Suppose a CNN/Huffpost poll is 100%

kokoda - the most deplorable
kokoda - the most deplorable

Is it hard to believe someone has hacked the poll algo?

kokoda - the most deplorable
kokoda - the most deplorable

Wonder how Tulsi Gabbard feels about Trump attacking Syria, based on LIES.
The US via Obama has supported ISIS all along, now Bastard Trump is doing the same thing, for Israel.

rhs jr
rhs jr

Scott Adams, you took a big bite of the same apple as President Dump, you are a good NeoCon and your analysis sucks but I think you’d get along well with Kushner. It will matter a lot to the rest of the world when Dump is proven to be a stupid trigger happy warmonger. Wish you were providing a front line report.

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