Donald J. Trump has taken credit for making America’s economy great again. He’s been crowing about all the jobs being created, the soaring consumer confidence and record highs in the stock market. It’s all because the Donald has inspired Americans about our glorious future.
But, a funny thing has been happening in the real world. The economy has gone into the shitter and GDP will be lucky to reach 1% in the first quarter of his presidency. The bullshit consumer confidence surveys mean absolutely nothing. Feelings don’t mean shit. What consumers do is what matters.
67% of the US economy is dependent upon Americans spending money they don’t have on shit they don’t need. And they’ve dramatically reduced that spending. If consumers are so confident, why are a record number of major retailers going bankrupt and closing 3,500 stores in 2017? Mom and pop retailers have been shuttering for years.
If the narrative about a dramatically improving housing market was true, why would furniture store sales and building material store sales be falling? They wouldn’t. It seems even the spendthrift millennials have run out of dough, as restaurant sales are in free fall. Restaurant chains have begun closing units now. It has only just begun.
The auto industry ponzi scheme has come to an end, as billions in subprime loans to deadbeats is finally coming home to roost. If you lend money to idiots with no means to repay you, the loans will go bad. Auto sales have begun to fall and will continue to fall for the next couple years, as this house of cards built on the Fed’s easy money collapses.
How in the world does anyone with two brain cells believe the average American has the ability to keep increasing their spending when their wages are stagnant, real household income is falling, and Obamacare continues to siphon what little cash they might have. There is no Obamacare replacement on the horizon, which means no tax cuts. But there is the promise of new wars across the globe. We got that going for us.
Trump is a self proclaimed PR genius. As this economy spirals downward, followed by the stock market, I wonder if the Donald will step up and accept responsibility for the debacle when it happens. He needs to reap what he sows and accept responsibility if he is going to boast about his success in reviving the economy. Right Trumpeteers?
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For the second month in a row, retail sales declined in March as ‘hard’ data fails to live up to ‘soft’ data’s hype. This is the biggest 2-month tumble in retail sales in over 2 years.
The full breakdown shows the biggest declines in building materials and motor vehicles.
This drop in sales should not be total surprise as real average weekly earnings has now failed to rise for 3 straight months.
Two more ‘hard’ data series to add to the list that dismiss the hope embedded in all the soft survey data… but we are sure stocks know better.
Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.5%, Lowest In Three Years
by Tyler Durden
Apr 14, 2017 11:36 AM
Just over two months ago, the Atlanta Fed “calculated” that Q1 GDP was going to be a pleasant 3.4%, confirming that the Fed had made the correct decision by hiking not only in December, but also last month. Since then, the Fed’s own GDP estimate has crashed in almost linear fashion, and as of this morning – after the latest disappointing retail sales report – it had plunged to just 0.5%, which if accurate would make Q1 the weakest quarter going back three years to Q1 2014.
From the regional Fed:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.5 percent on April 14, down from 0.6 percent on April 7. The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 0.6 percent to 0.3 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Putting the Atlanta Fed’s forecast in context, a 0.5% GDP would mark the weakest quarter in 37 years, or going back to 1980, in which the Fed hiked rates. Then again, considering today’s abysmal CPI and retail sales data, the narrative to focus on next is not so much hiking, or balance sheet normalization, but when the Fed will resume easing, cut rates (as per Donald Trump’s recent suggestion) and/or launch QE4.
Admin, you just don’t understand. While you are looking at the numbers straight on, Trump is using his 3D hologram glasses to see the numbers as signs of a huge growth spurt just around the corner. Our President has this all figured out. The bad numbers are just meant to soften you up so when the economy booms, the boom will be that much bigger. I’m sure Scott Adams will explain it all to us tomorrow.
Have faith in our President. He hasn’t lied to us yet, has he.
Good explanation, Trapped. Jim, pay attention.
And now a word from our Commerce Secretary . Free and Fair Trade for American Workers and Businesses | whitehouse.gov
https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2017/04/13/free-and-fair-trade-american-workers-and-businesses
Star- Don’t you disrespect Admin, that shit is not cool.
You can’t even decipher sarcasm when you read it. Pretty sad.
Yes, It was obvious that it was sarc. Condescending but sarc.
I think Admin was referring to Trapped’s 3D hologram glasses sarc.
He was talking to Starfuck who took it literally.
Starfuck really thinks Trump plays 3 level chess.
Russophiles Flynn and Bannon are kaput.
It’s really Pence and McMaster running the show.
El- From the looks of the downers, I am not the only one who cringed.
He’s got the 3D hologram glasses. That I guarantee. He used them to make building 7 fall down. But I’m still not going the chess route.
Niggahs is broke dez days, and white folks too. My question is will the Fed continue ZIRP or go to NIRP, inquiring minds gotsta knows.
First one, then the other. Candidate trump was 100% correct when he said we were ‘in a big, fat, ugly bubble’ or words to that effect. He was critical of the feds easy money policy as well. Sometimes he sounded like he read here or ZH. Now, as stupid and irrational as it seems, he apparently wants to take credit for the last gasp of irrational exuberance as the market nears (or has now surpassed) its peak. No doubt, once this house of cards inevitably comes crashing down, he will blame the past administration, despite claiming credit on the way up. In other words, he will act just like obama, taking credit for anything good, but blaming the last admin for anything bad.
The man does nothing without a sound plan. He will either negotiate the debt away and sacrifice the banks or write it off and start from scratch. It cannot be repaid from the coffers of a crippled nation. He may just nationalize the banks.
Buttholio- You need to puff-puff-give that doobie you are smoking, what a load of crap.
BL, is that short for Blind Leader? You have some interest in seeing the banks that rip out all our lungs keep standing? They should have failed back in ’97. Nothing in this universe can save those filthy vermin. What’s more, look for Trump to take back all they stole, like the $23T interest free loans they made to themselves.
America is awake, even if you aren’t. BTW, walk in any good looking dog shit lately? LMAO
Buttwipe- That’s not a doobie you are puffing, that is for sure a crackpipe. You are beyond help junior.
So I’m guessing all of those Goldman Sachs stooges will help El Chump suicide the Rothschild banks they work for….right.
Viewing the events of the past week dispassionately I’ve reluctantly come to the conclusion that Trump is “certifiable”. I’ve further come to believe that the man has no basic philosophical core beliefs, that he will continue to go sideways and that we’ll be lucky if we survive his term as POTUS.
I suspected that Trump was a lunatic, but I wasn’t really prepared for him to turn out to be a mongoloid as well. His latest moves make retarded people look wise by comparison.
Trump inherited a bad situation from Obama and is working hard to improve it.
What else can be expected?
FWIW, the economy took a downturn just after Regan took office but ended up booming like never before in history by the end of his term.
FWIW, National debt was $1 trillion when Reagan took office you nitwit. Interest rates were 18% and could go nowhere but down. He added $1.6 trillion to the national debt by spending gobs on the military.
The national debt is $20 trillion and interest rates are 2.3%, with $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities and annual deficits of $800 billion.
Different ball game you dumbass. Every time you make a comment I realize you are dumber than a sack of hammers.
I hope I don’t get “hammered” here, but the economy was on a death watch right up to Trump becoming president, so if anything, the impending crash may have been postponed a few months, as businesses saw a glimmer of hope in regulations being removed, but the crash will happen. The question is, how hard of a fall; will it be catastrophic, or a crash that we can recover from? I do not have much hope in a recovery, as the presidents decisions have become erratic and unpredictable to such an extent that he is acting more like a businessman without any core values, but ones that change with the wind. I don’t know how it will end, but believe it will be a rough ride. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
So you’re saying things are much worse now?
Of course they are, which is why it is so much harder a job for Trump than Regan who had it much easier but still saw an initial downturn.
As you pointed out.
Wrong again dimwit. Reagan took office in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression. Volker killed inflation and the dramatic decrease in interest rates during Reagan’s term, along with debt financed spending, boosted GDP.
Your pea brain barely functions, as you inferred in your comment that Trump could create a boom, just like Reagan did. I pointed out that Trump’s economic plans are DOA as he cannot boost debt and will have no benefit from falling rates. Plus, he’s too much of a pussy to touch entitlements – which will be our economic downfall.
Keep cheering for your savior Trump, without thinking. That’s what you do best.
And his fucking name was REAGAN – not Regan, you dumbass.
5 Months Of Wasted Time
by Tyler Durden
Apr 14, 2017 1:49 PM
‘Hope’ may create asset bubbles but it doesn’t buy cars, put shoes on kids feet, or food on the family table…
5 months of hope… any day now the ‘real’ economy will catch up to the fantasy? Today alone we had disappointment in Retail Sales, Real Earnigs, and CPI!!
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But it seems while ‘hope’ doesn’t pay the bills (stagnating incomes), it certainly fuels the stock market…
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Tick Tock Mr. Trump.
The chart isn’t readily date specific, but it seems to be showing a sharp upturn since Trump took office.
Wrong bonehead.
You can’t even read a fucking chart. How fucking stupid are you?
Real earnings are NEGATIVE since your Trumpster took over. I thought he was keeping jobs in America and creating new high paying ones.
Do you even understand the concept of REAL earnings you idiot?
The stupid, it burns.
Have to agree here. I can’t help but think that the spike in the S&P was professional money using their HFT to entice the “home gamer” and pension dolts in to the market so the pros (read bankster and hedgefund scum) could sell their shares just before the asteroid hits. Anyone with a tiny fraction of sense could see that the real economy was getting weaker. Also, when Trump said that the markets were up because of him, well that was the financial equivalent of Bush and his “mission accomplished” statement. Sometimes they do ring a bell at the top.
I doubt that any QE or money printing regime at this point, outside of literally dropping money in backyards by the fed is going to stop this “downturn” from hitting. The economy is over saturated with debt. Period.
So at the end of that weekly earnings chart, what is the direction it is going and when does it look like it started?
I’d appreciate an actual answer, and one relying on the chart and not something else not in the article.
Your answer is that real weekly earnings have been between NEGATIVE 0.5% and 0.0% since Trump became president. Can you comprehend NEGATIVE? It has soared to almost 0% growth. WOW!!!! Let’s give Trump the nobel prize in economics.
Anyone who thinks that chart is a positive reflection on Trump is truly a dumfuck. You fit the bill.
Who was president in 2015 and 2016 when real earning were growing between 1% and 3% genius?
Keep making a fool of yourself by commenting on shit you don’t have a clue about.
For the record, Obama never reached 3% growth. The only president to ever fail to do so. It was intentional.
For the record, I’m not talking about GDP. We were talking about the chart above showing real weekly earnings. Please don’t comment if you don’t know what the fuck is being discussed.
You people tire me out.
He’ll take credit for another wave of refinances as mortgage rates fall in response to a slowing economy.
Rates are going up, Uncle Donald is talking down the dollar. We should expect inflation and rising rates. People who think he will soak the banks are delusional. He will inflate away the debt, robbing the people. The banks will survive. We shall try to get by on the American Bolivar.
He’ll blame Jared Kuchner and Gary Cohn.
Ivanka will probably cry, so it might be prudent for everyone to hide from cruise missiles for a while, if this happens.
The trumpster is a very accomplished liar, a jew loving zionist fraud. He has been in bed with the creep jews for many years. And btw did kushner the satanist jew, a citizen of Israel get elected while I was asleep? This POS advises trump??
Hopefully the relationship between his advisers and his fucking-over of the USA will be so painfully obvious that ‘Muricans will learn their lesson and start recognizing this issue.
It’s not as if Killary would have been any better. The USA was so totally fucked either way.
WOW, when Jack Lovett starts getting major thumbs up for the same shit he used to get major thumbs down THEN you know a sea change has occured!!
Jack- hang in there.
Trump was a Black Swan initially, but his every step since then has shown that he is a Republocrat like any other.
We are so screwn. We’ve been screwn for so many years in so many ways that most people are just beginning to wake up to the fact of how screwn we are.
Yeah, I know screwn isn’t really a word, but it describes where we are so well.
It isn’t going to be pretty, folks. The Trump euphoria is wearing off and that’s about all we had going for us.
The wonderful state of Connecticut, Admin., having learned absolutely nothing from the taxing of sugary drinks debacle where you live, will be voting soon on adding a sugary beverage tax of its own, basically about a penny an ounce. What really made me laugh is the lawmakers who were pushing it through were talking up what a success it was in Philly. You can’t make this shit up.
A train wreck is in progress: durables will stack up; production, transportation, finance, services, employment will actually tank; GDP will be negative; imports and housing will…oops, ha ha, that pesky reality tried to sneak in again: The DOW will continue to soar to new heights and gold to new lows. Chemtrails really don’t exist almost every day that you really don’t see them again and again in the sky; get vaccinated and eat hardy because GMOs and pesticides are good for you as are wars; LGBTQs, illegal muslim immigrants and the FSA will save us. Just watch TV and mumble MAGA: Trump and the NeoCons are your friends; TPTB have everything under control; nothing can go wrong again.
Despite the attacks, here goes…..
For at least ten years, economists have stated that the American economy is beyond salvation. Deny that and I have a bridge for you to buy.
Trump followed a psychopath that was intent from day one to destroy the American economy using the Cloward-Piven destabilization strategy born in the Frankfurt School. Communism is the enemy, in case you guys didn’t know.
Trump has made positive moves almost daily. He is trying to rid us of the deep state idiots who’ve put us in this trick-bag.
You instant gratification hunters will certainly be disappointed. Trump is doing all he can to save this country, but his enemies (which some of you believe to be Gods) are a constant din in the news feeds.
Trump cut the military free from political intervention, and then you got Tomahawks and a MOAB. His directive to the military was simply to wipe ISIS out.
Have you heard the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid?”
If you must blame someone, blame the fucking banks & Wall Street. Those JEWS deserve your wrath.
Butthurt, the word for today is LEMMING…..go look it up.
Your word for today is sheelpe…. look that up.
Butthole Slayer can’t even spell sheepel
I have fingers like pickles, what can I say, you got me.
That would be SHEEPLE EC.
The misspelling was a misdirect. The real joke was that I called him Butthole Slayer. In time I would shorten it to Butthole. You have to have a plan. We now return you to our regularly scheduled trolling.
Why don’t you plan an education, that 4th grade shit ain’t cutting it these days.
Butthole Slurper- If EC and I wanted to rip you a new butthole the rath would come down on you. You have been treated with kid gloves so far. That’s all the education you need.
The rath is real.
Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.
Rath? Jesus Christ BL get a dictionary.
Jabberwocky notwithstanding.
Another dumfuck steps to the plate. Trump is doing everything the Deep State wants him to do. He’s reversed himself on at least 10 campaign platforms in the last week. How the fuck do you wipe ISIS out by fucking bombing the guy who is fighting ISIS? The stupid burns bright with you non-think neo-con cheerleaders who don’t have two functioning brain cells.
Answer my fucking question about bombing Assad. Has he or hasn’t he been fighting ISIS for the last five years? Who has provided the weapons being used by ISIS and Alqueda against Assad?
You sound like fucking George Bush – “we had to abandon free market principles to save the free market.”
And as usual, when you morons have no argument – just blame the fucking joos.
You and Anon should get together and jerk each other off while watching Bill Kristol argue for bombing ten more countries.
Idiots abound on TBP.
He didn’t bomb Assad, the deep state did. Trump took the shit slings & arrows without a peep.
Assad: America’s ‘Deep State’ – Not Trump – Blew Up Airbase in Syria
Why all the hostility? Civil people can differ and still come to consensus on the truth, eventually.
Hostility is what keeps TBP running.
Trump gave the fucking order you idiot.
So when something good happens, Trump did it, but when he gives the order to blow up people who are fighting ISIS, the Deep State did it on their own. Idiot.
The only order Trump gave was to the military: Destroy ISIS.
Yes, he bears responsibility, but at some point you have to choose a side.
I wonder if I can answer you in kind without being banned?
Wrong again. Those fucking missiles were launched when fucking Trump ordered them to be launched. Are you really as dense as you seem?
He chose to attack the side fighting ISIS early in the week and then supposedly spent $414,000 per dead ISIS fighter later in the week.
Which fucking side did he choose?
Do you people ever think?
Actually, some of us think more objectively and in an unbiased way, to find truth instead of emotional hogwash.
Ever notice how he who knows least knows it the loudest?
If he’s trying to actually drain the swamp, then what are all those Goldman Sachs vampire squids doing in his inner circle?
Here’s one consumer’s situation:
I need new rear brakes on my nine year old car, but I can’t afford to get them.
I need a new garbage disposal. I could probably cough up the change to buy one, but then I have to pay a plumber $85 to walk across the threshold and then some more. I have learned to live without it anyway.
The same plumber needs to replace the drain and plug in my 63 year old bathtub.
A slat has fallen out of the back fence but I can’t afford the handyman to fix it. I may tackle that one myself.
The dining room ceiling is showing evidence that my swamp cooler is leaking, so the air conditioning guy needs to come (AGAIN) to patch up whatever is wrong. Actually I need a new swamp cooler bit can’t afford it.
The garage door opener is dying and needs to be replaced.
At this point, God himself is keeping the 17 year old washer and dryer going.
That is quite a list of goods and services I would love to purchase but will not go into debt to do so. Maybe I’m the type of person who keeps the economy from growing. There was a time these items would not have been a financial problem, even after I retired.
Gayle – What a load of shit. No one needs a garbage disposal. No one needs a plumber to put one in.
A handyman to fix “a slat”? Are you fucking kidding me?
Take the fucking garage door opener off, and, you know, open that fucker by hand. Worked for me for years and years.
Maybe you are the type of person causing the shit the world is in. Does not sound like you know the difference between want and need. Does not sound like you have the skills to do a damn thing for yourself.
And therein lies an enormous problem. Wealth is being squander on wants not needs. And few have the skills to do much of anything anymore.
I would be ashamed to be so helpless.
Dear Llpoh
You seem grumpy these days.
I said I do fine without the garbage disposal.
I do open the garage door by hand.
I have the slat in place with a big rock, but I feel that is hardly a long term solution.
I researched my books called 100 Things You Don’t Need a Man For (Home Repair and Improvement) and Better Homes and Gardens Complete Guide to Home Repair and watched You Tube videos to try to figure out how to fix the tub but they were no help. Then I went to Home Depot and a consultant spent close to an hour to help me find the needed stuff to fix it myself, but they do not carry parts to replace the old style apparatus like mine. I need a professional’s help. You have, however, reassured me that I could possibly install my own garbage disposal.
I did not mean to whine. The point I was trying to make is to confirm consumer spending is down, agreeing with Admin’s thesis that people don’t have as much money to spend, using myself as an example. Who knew I was the type of person causing the shit in the world? TBP is always enlightening.
Gayle – you know better than to bare your soul around here. And I am grumpy. I do not see a single solitary thing going in the right direction.
Everything I see indicates the world is heading down the sewer. War drums are beating. Economies are tanking. Debt is exploding. Idiot lefties think that letting people unvetted into the country is a good thing. Illegal aliens are protected by state and local governments. Business is crippled. Welfare is seen as a universal and perpetual right, and is believed affordable if the “rich” are simply taxed to death. People withgenerally good sense lay the fault for all this at the feet of the Jews, who are as guilty as anyone else, no more nor less, ignoring the fault of the general community. Education systems are rotten. Infrastructure is decayed. Population is out of control. Demographics are going to ensure the young are screwed to death. Work ethic is gone. Family is no longer important to so many. Crime is rampant, and the criminals are protected. Cops are the enemy. People have no skills to fall back on. The sheeple have far too numerous and believe that free shit and open borders and gay marriage and transgender rights are important.
Yes, I am grumpy as all frigging hell.
I’m a little depressed myself. Fourth Turnings suck.
Gayle, if you can’t use screws in the old nail holes, you might try Gorilla glue. Or try Gorilla glue and a couple of screws for pressure until the glue sets.
Find a couple of 2″ Phillips head screws.
Apply gorilla glue to cross board
Wet the slat (but not the boards) with garden hose
Secure top and bottom of slat onto cross boards with a screw in old nail holes
Home Depot has videos on how to install a disposal. Lowes has common disposals. If you can find a suitable replacement, the problem is disconnecting the old disposal.
Installing the new disposal requires a second person. Since it weighs over 10 lbs, the location will make it seem like it weighs a ton. Readily available accordion adapter pipes – white plastic – make fitting the old plastic pipes easier (assuming they are plastic).
https://youtu.be/E6PZVEz_o-g
As for the washer and dryer, call a parts store, they usually know what the problem is and can suggest a part. Again, review the DIY videos.
I don’t know if you have ‘llanteras’ nearby. They are tire shops that sell used tires. What you want to ask is, can they replace your brakes if you have the parts. They should charge no more than $25 for labor. The guy at Riveras tires up here in Palmdale showed me a leaking cylinder. I got the part and he replaced it along with the brakes.
El Coyote
Thank you for the care and concern and helpful suggestions. As I said, TPB is always enlightening.
My son and sons-in-law will be around this weekend, so I will get them on task I think.
Gayle gonna put the menfolk to work. Dats sexist.
Dats normal.
I like sheep. Why use sheep as an insult? Blindly follow? Not all will. It’s a breedable characteristic. Pick on chickens, they’re idiots. Der ya go den “chidiots.” How about ducks? Pick on ducks, they’re foolish, you could call them “foolish ducks.”
No matter how many Stormers come here, they will not win. Admin is ready to kick their ass.
Granted it’s difficult to see past all the lies, but the real economy has been shrinking since about the year 2000.
It was obscured by the housing bubble, and then by the current stock and bond bubble.
I don’t see things getting better anytime in the near future, but plenty of chances for things to get much worse.
I keep coming back. Fool me once. Hostility fuels TBP says Admin. Confusion reigns, hostility follows closes behind. Christians here dis Jews. Because they make too much money? They Live, smugly, in Hollywood? They killed Jesus? Wasn’t it King Herod that killed Jesus? I was fifteen. Minister of church claimed he was saved and I wasn’t. He was an asshole. I didn’t want to belong to the same club as him and I became fearful that he may be kicked out of club or dead jebus would welcome me in. Dropped out, never looked back. Now drawn to the irreverent side. No active disrespect, just no respect. Well, maybe some disrespect. Lots of sarcasm, mockery. Sorta cheeky, slightly impertinent. Maybe the minister wasn’t an asshole. Maybe it was me… Nah.
Shit is about to get real. Sage is moving to the Maldive Islands.
For reals Sage, got room for a stowaway?
When everything you pick up says Made in China, you’re fucked. We make heroin addicts and smiling android mongoloids to entertain you on TV. Spend a few trillion 5 thousand miles away while the rot and corruption disintegrate you from the inside. Why fight over there when there’s nothin worth fightin for here. All the small family business’s are gone, its all corporate shit, and gold stores, cash checking places, used car dealers, pawn shops and fucking mosques. My town is uglier than shit. Did’nt use to be. There were farms, horses, cows, sheep, chickens, Now there’s too many people in big ugly shitboxes with palatial lawns and dinky trees. I voted for that stupid son of a bitch, but learned a good lesson, don’t bother. Puppets on a string. Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
https://youtu.be/GY2f9tI9xzA
Dennis – if people look at where stuff is made, and see China, all the got to do is not buy it. Trump and his protectionist rhetoric is bullshit. Just another politician promising to save people from themselves. It never works.
People need to save themselves. Don’t want manufacturing going to China? Do not buy from China. See how easy that is?
Life is simple enough to understand on the short bus, eh?
Butthurt – some advice. Double up on the KY when taking a big black python up the ass, and maybe the soreness will reduce.
When I scroll up and down to read comments, I accidently hit those little up/down thumbs all the time. Otherwise, I completely ignore them.
I was wondering when you were going to show up and be my wingman. I’ve been clobbering these dimwits for two days by myself while you and Stuck are off having fun.
Brokeback Mountain is a true story?
Admin – where is Stuck?
Calibre of the opposition sucks at the moment. Was glad to see you loosen the cap on a bottle of whoop ass. These noobs would drop dead if the cap ever comes clean off.
He’s been moving from his house to a rental house. He hasn’t had internet connection for a couple weeks.