Guest Post by Scott Adams
You might enjoy my Periscope playback from this morning in which I describe the several persuasion techniques President Trump is using on the topic of The Wall and DACA.
Here’s the quick summary.
Visual Persuasion: President Trump describes border security (a concept) with the word “wall” because you can visualize it. Our visual sense is our most persuasive path for influence. It would be weak persuasion to talk about border security as a concept without a visual.
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Simplicity: Border security is a big topic, and the method you use to secure it will depend on the terrain and other factors. If President Trump mentioned all of that complexity each time he talked about border security it would be a big yawn. Simple messages such as “build a wall” always beat complicated (but accurate) conceptual arguments.
Strategic Ambiguity: In hypnosis class we learned to omit any details the subject might find objectionable. Following good form, President Trump doesn’t get too specific about the type of wall he wants. He lets us see the wall that makes the most sense to us.
We see the same strategic ambiguity after his famous dinner “agreement” with Pelosi and Schumer. The Democratic leaders got to announce “no wall” while the President says “yes wall.” The reality is that both sides agree on spending for border improvements, some of which will undoubtedly be wall-ish sometime in the next few years. We citizens get to pick which version of reality we like best: wall or no wall. The ambiguity supports both views. And it is intentional.
Big First Demand: A good negotiator starts with an aggressive first demand so there is plenty of room to negotiate toward the middle. President Trump started his campaign promising to deport every undocumented immigrant. That first demand was so extreme that he has plenty of room to negotiate toward a reasonable center, such as allowing DACA folks to stay.
Likewise, the “Wall” idea is seen by many Trump critics and supporters alike to mean a solid wall for the entire border with Mexico. This was never a practical idea, and candidate Trump said so directly at least once, but he wisely didn’t emphasize the full range of solutions for the border. Now it will seem totally reasonable to build a solid wall wherever border security is most problematic, so long as it is not extended to the entire border.
Thinking Past the Sale: In this case, the “sale” is President Trump’s desire to tighten border security. Now both sides assume the border will be tightened and they are only debating the budget and the details. This is classic persuasion. The President never allowed the country to spend time debating whether or not we wanted better border control. Instead, he made us focus on how to do it. He made the sale before the country thought it had anything to buy.
Trading Imaginary Assets for Real Ones: If we believe initial reports from Pelosi, Schumer, and Trump, there will be some sort of deal for greater border security in exchange for allowing DACA folks to stay in the country. But realistically, the DACA folks couldn’t have been rounded up and deported without a civil war. So President Trump traded an imaginary asset (the idea of deporting the DACA folks) for something potentially real in terms of greater border security funding.
Pacing and Leading: Pacing refers to matching your subject in some way, either physically, verbally, or in terms of philosophy. Candidate Trump paced (matched) his base on immigration until he got elected. Now the base trusts that he is philosophically aligned with them. So if he finds he can’t do all the things they demand, they are likely to let him lead to whatever is practical and doable simply because they trust him on the topic. People don’t expect a politician to be magic, or to do the impossible. But they do want politicians to “get” them and to care about them and to fight for what they want. President Trump paced his supporters by understanding their needs and fighting for them. That group is likely to trust him when he says some form of “This is the best we can do for now.”
High Ground Maneuver: The high ground maneuver involves taking an argument out of the weeds and up to a level where everyone agrees. In this case, the weeds include a discussion of how best to handle DACA folks. President Trump tweeted that some are military veterans. The military is the high ground in the U.S., and any reference to them is likely to be a high ground play. In other words, President Trump is committing to keeping the DACA folks in this country. He just doesn’t want to say it until he gets his budget for border security.
Likewise, at some point soon President Trump will pivot from “the wall everywhere” to “effective border control.” Effective border control, and the job improvement for Americans that might come with it, are the high ground. The details of how to do it are the weeds.
I ain’t buying it. We’ve been getting “enhanced border security” for the last 3 decades, and at the rate we’re going, I’m going to have to marque el número ocho to get me someone on the phone who can talk American. When it comes to the border, anyone who uses the word “drones”, needs to be put to work at the nearest donkey show, taking the donkey pillar.
All that ever needed to be done in the first place is to take the yoke of the necks of our law enforcement by our BS PC politicians of the Progressives R and D`s, law enforcement only has to do their job! The wall in certain locations would be good, but building the wall in no mans land is plain stupid and a waste of money we do not have, put the law to work this story will change! No more sanctuary cities!! The Wall was nothing but a marketing campaign just like going after Hillary and stopping the never ending war in the middle east. When those Tomahawk missiles in Syria and the MOAB went Boom in Afghanistan and a phalanx of Goldman Sachs bankers in his cabinet the charade was over! Do you think your vote matters anymore? It`s not a government by the people for the people anymore, it`s a government by the government for the government and the Globalist .01%$$$$ that own them all!
In other words, Scott, Trump didn’t mean any of what he said in the campaign.
The evidence seems to strongly support that assertion.
Thats correct. I didn’t vote for him to get political speak and ambiguity. I voted for him to do what he said he was going to do, and in simple terms.
He is going to do EXACTLY what Reagan did. Amnesty, or something that closely resembles amnesty but without using that word, with promises for more border security and stricter laws (or, just actual enforcement of existing laws) later. The amnesty will happen, the rest of it will never materialize. Same with every dumbass republican that falls for the ‘tax hikes now, spending cuts later’ line of bullshit. Personally, I believe their objections to this is just poltical theater to con their voters into continuing to support them. I don’t believe these people are actually stupid enough to keep falling for this trick, which means they do it on purpose. Which means, fuck them. It will be interesting to see what replaces trump for the 30-40 million REALLY pissed off people who make up his base. That anger sure as shit isn’t going anywhere, and if he doesn’t get the job done, the left isn’t going to like what comes next. They ain’t seen nothin yet.
Yes, Trump is a shrewd negotiator, but I think he’s screwing up with this. Trump followed the law and did away with DACA, within six months, which was a presidential overreach by Obama. He then tossed it over to Congress, giving them six months to come up with a solution. He should have left it with Congress instead of getting into negotiations. Now when the Dreamers are allowed to stay, and we know they will be allowed to stay because Congressmen have no spine, Trump will be blamed instead of Congress.
I would have given them 6 days. Then start the cattle cars South. I’m very not happy about this bullshit.
Scott Adams is a brilliant guy. He definitely understands persuasion. I’ve mentioned all along that Trump was going to find a way to use DACA to accomplish other things — it’s his literal trump card — and I think it’s working out well for him. If he keeps this up, he may yet win everyone over and become the gray champion for our 4T.
It’s working out so well that he is turning into Bush41, and the base will be massively pissed off if this amnesty goes through….This is amnesty, and there will be no Wall if there is amnesty.
He’s persuading me, all right. I’m persuaded to think he’s a total fuckhead who sold out his biggest promises.
I was just reading Breitbart, and Trump’s supporters are pissed off. Thousands of comments.
Adam’s always has some interesting comments. But he also includes some utter bullshit as well nearly every article. Isn’t he on of the Trump is playing “3d chess”. As if Trump is so fucking brillaint that no one can manage to understand his genuise. I think it’s much more likely that Trump has few core beliefs, he rode a pony on some of them and pretended away on others that he could care less about.
For example his hyperbole about DACA “would have caused a civil war”. Such utter bullshit! Trump is winging it half the time, he isn’t an idiot, but he certainly isn’t brilliant either. I do believe he is a nationalist for the most part though, and seems pretty consistent with his economic nationalism thoughts over time. He has waffled all over the place on most of the rest. He has almost no one left around him that are really conservatives, or libertarians, mostly Democrats basically. He was buddies with Schumer and the rest not that long ago. Trump is like a shit sandwich that has some really nice toppings on it. Supreme pick and some other things seem really nice, but once you bite in deep, your realize you are still mostly eating shit. I’m feeling poetic today.
The article is clearcut nonsense….This was the signature issue of Trump’s campaign, and if he betrays the base on this, he is done….
Pyrrhus, perfect 24 words. He might be able to shoot someone in the middle of 5th avenue, but he starts handing out amnesty, he no longer has a base.
Trump could jerkoff live on CuNNt, and Adams would find some hidden persuasion meaning.
Adams’s articles were OK during the primaries and even up to the first couple months of Trump’s regime. But his schtick is getting old, tiring, and predictable.
The way that I would negotiate this would be to start at “kill ’em all”, and then compromise to “deport ’em all”.
This is Bullshit : that 800,000 DACA will turned into 4 or 5 Million after bringing in their families from every Third world Banana republic. Trump promised to build a wall with no amnesty. If he doesn’t he is just another liar and betrayer.In other words another God Damn traitor. I’m so sick of these son of a bitches.
Yeah, it was a fuck you from day 1- everyone knew eventually their whole fucking villages would be here.
But, but, but it’s 1488D chess, goy!
You can’t round up shadow people, and you can’t simply arrest and deport at traffic stops, banks, schools, hospitals, places of employment, gubmint buildings, or anywhere else because magic dirt!
Anything less than doing what the swamp critters tell you must be done is anti-semantic!
Think of the (36 year old) children!
But there’s a bright side!
Honestly, the ‘Art of the Deal’ is graceful, and deals are getting done!
Congress is no longer gridlocked, deals are getting done, that’s the bright side, just like with Reagan’s amnesty!
And Bush’s, Clinton’s, and Hart-Celler, all deals that help you goyim become more tolerant dirt-people!
The author makes some interesting points and I wish I could feel as confident as he does. None of us will ever get everything we want, at least not at the first go; sometimes we have to stop the bleeding now and work towards our long term goals. Trump has everyone working against him and I don’t know who working with him? Under these conditions, a direct frontal assault would fail. In my humble opinion the left be nuts, many value the illegals more than the citizens either because of foolish compassion or the lure of more votes; either way, our brethren on the left are not above burning this sucker down just for spite and should this occur it is pretty much game over. Our problems have been a long time in the making and other than armed conflict, which I pray we can avoid, it will be a long time fixing all that ails this country. The problem is not DJT at this point, the problem is the American citizenry many of whom have been brain-washed to think more socialism is the answer and the Constitution is an obstacle to be overcome. Please don’t get me wrong, I am not a Trump cheerleader but considering the circumstances it is too early for me to judge and to be honest, what a God awful position the man placed himself in, he is like Daniel in the lion’s den. I guess we got the government we deserved.
Bullshit. I want the wall. I want all of it. I want triple strand concertina and razor wire and landmines and Obama’s moat with gators and tanks and troops and railguns and flamethrowers and I want catapults and giant mutant spiders with freakin’ lasers.
I want it all and I want it now.
I don’t want Klinton’s “Friendly” wall with holes cut in it or empty spaces or bollards you can walk around or corrugated sheet metal barriers or dry dusty streambeds.
I want troops manning a perimeter with seismic and thermal and IR sensors and lasers and motion detectors and drones and anything else you can imagine throwing at the problem. Shoot to kill, cuz’ they’re sneaking across a sovereign boundary.
I want East Berlin and the DMZ and the USSR and any other potential border you can think of on my border. And I want real punishment for any and everyone who doesn’t have a visa or passport or proper ID. No more bullshit talk. Let’s put millions of unemployed people to work hunting down the illegals among us and deport all these asshats back to shitcanistan where they belong. Or push them back across the border into Mexico, since they facilitate crossings, anyway. Or give them all military training, rifles, and boots and beans and rice and ship them all back to their nations of origin to “participate” in their nations’ political processes. (I think if we sent them all back armed, their home nations would think twice about border security.)
And the way to do it is to announce all illegals, since they break the law every single day they stay, are now responsible for operating a continuing criminal enterprise and their bank accounts, homes, businesses, cash, jewelry, cars, etc is liable for seizure by law enforcement at all levels. Watch em’ all “Run for the Border.”
Because that’s how you keep undesirable assholes out and that’s how you make citizenship mean something again. Fuck the so-called “dreamers” and send them back to hell where they belong. Breaking the law for a long time doesn’t make it OK.
And while I agree with Scott Adams, I’m tired of having him explain how everything Trump tells us is actually camoflage for something else. I might be a simpleton, but I wanted the simple things he promised, not a bait-and-switch operation that give me more illegals, no wall, no BarryCare repeal, and more Terd Werld War.
Actually, I want no physical wall at all – not a good symbol for a “free” country. But I would be alright with –
A five-mile empty zone (buy out the border landholders within the five mile limit).
Landmines.
Infrared doppler interferometry – with IR camera backup.
Mobile forces watching the instruments that react to those who get past the landmines somehow.
Repatriation to their home countries with new tattoos on the foreheads of the perpetrators.
Repatriation of bodies of those found with the tattoos.
It would only take a few months before the word got out, and then we could send the DACAs home too along with their lawbreaking parents – parents get tattoos also. Kids don’t – this time.
I’ve crossed a lot of borders in my life and it’s funny how the more podunk a country is, the more seriously they appear to take their borders. I remember years ago, crossing an Oblast border in Russia, I was confronted with triple rows of dragon teeth (anti-armor obstacles), BRDM-2 light scout armor, and AK47-toting guards. This was the Russian version of crossing from NY to NJ and they had that kind of control. I was impressed. Compare that to America, where we essentially put the rest of the world on the Honor Code and expect them to line up at the manned crossings to be inspected. Build the Wall and Stack it Tall!
Boo Hoo!! What a bunch of babies! So roughly 40% of the people consistently vote Democrats into office who want open borders. At least 40% of Republicans are “moderate”, which means they agree with Democrats half the time, especially on immigration (illegal and otherwise). Maybe 1/3 of the of the Republicans are libertarian conservatives who might actually consider some form of mass roundup and deportation. Trump knows all of this. Before Trump the options were de facto amnesty and de facto open borders as we all waited for legal amnesty for all. It was only a matter of time. The options now include actual reduced legal immigration, actual reduced illegal immigration, actual border security while allowing for the possibility of some form of amnesty for a limited number of illegal aliens in order to get something real done. In the context of the political realities created by a majority of the voters of this country, that seems like quite an accomplishment.
good reasoning–
There will be no wall. There will be at least defacto amnesty. There will be no tax cut. There will be no prosecutions of corrupt Democrats, FBI or IRS. Jeff Sessions is the most principled AG in history. That Trump is the greatest president since Obama.