Guest Post by Pat Buchanan
With his declaration Friday that the Iran nuclear deal is not in the national interest, President Donald Trump may have put us on the road to war with Iran.
Indeed, it is easier to see the collisions that are coming than to see how we get off this road before the shooting starts.
After “de-certifying” the nuclear agreement, signed by all five permanent members of the Security Council, Trump gave Congress 60 days to reimpose the sanctions that it lifted when Teheran signed.
If Congress does not reimpose those sanctions and kill the deal, Trump threatens to kill it himself.
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Why? Did Iran violate the terms of the agreement? Almost no one argues that — not the UN nuclear inspectors, not our NATO allies, not even Trump’s national security team.
Iran shipped all its 20 percent enriched uranium out of the country, shut down most of its centrifuges, and allowed intrusive inspections of all nuclear facilities. Even before the deal, 17 U.S. intelligence agencies said they could find no evidence of an Iranian nuclear bomb program.
Indeed, if Iran wanted a bomb, Iran would have had a bomb.
She remains a non-nuclear-weapons state for a simple reason: Iran’s vital national interests dictate that she remain so.
As the largest Shiite nation with 80 million people, among the most advanced in the Mideast, Iran is predestined to become the preeminent power in the Persian Gulf. But on one condition: She avoid the great war with the United States that Saddam Hussein failed to avoid.
Iran shut down any bomb program it had because it does not want to share Iraq’s fate of being smashed and broken apart into Persians, Azeris, Arabs, Kurds and Baluch, as Iraq was broken apart by the Americans into Sunni, Shiite, Turkmen, Yazidis and Kurds.
Tehran does not want war with us. It is the War Party in Washington and its Middle East allies — Bibi Netanyahu and the Saudi royals — who hunger to have the United States come over and smash Iran.
Thus, the Congressional battle to kill, or not to kill, the Iran nuclear deal shapes up as decisive in the Trump presidency.
Yet, even earlier collisions with Iran may be at hand.
In Syria’s east, U.S.-backed and Kurd-led Syrian Democratic Forces are about to take Raqqa. But as we are annihilating ISIS in its capital, the Syrian army is driving to capture Deir Ezzor, capital of the province that sits astride the road from Baghdad to Damascus.
Its capture by Bashar Assad’s army would ensure that the road from Baghdad to Damascus to Hezbollah in Lebanon remains open.
If the U.S. intends to use the SDF to seize the border area, we could find ourselves in a battle with the Syrian army, Shiite militia, the Iranians, and perhaps even the Russians.
Are we up for that?
In Iraq, the national army is moving on oil-rich Kirkuk province and its capital city. The Kurds captured Kirkuk after the Iraqi army fled from the ISIS invasion. Why is a U.S.-trained Iraqi army moving against a U.S.-trained Kurdish army?
The Kurdistan Regional Government voted last month to secede. This raised alarms in Turkey and Iran, as well as Baghdad. An independent Kurdistan could serve as a magnet to Kurds in both those countries.
Baghdad’s army is moving on Kirkuk to prevent its amputation from Iraq in any civil war of secession by the Kurds.
Where does Iran stand in all of this?
In the war against ISIS, they were de facto allies. For ISIS, like al-Qaida, is Sunni and hates Shiites as much as it hates Christians. But if the U.S. intends to use the SDF to capture the Iraqi-Syrian border, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Russia could all be aligned against us.
Are we ready for such a clash?
We Americans are coming face to face with some new realities.
The people who are going to decide the future of the Middle East are the people who live there. And among these people, the future will be determined by those most willing to fight, bleed and die for years and in considerable numbers to realize that future.
We Americans, however, are not going to send another army to occupy another country, as we did Kuwait in 1991, Afghanistan in 2001, and Iraq in 2003.
Bashar Assad, his army and air force backed by Vladimir Putin’s air power, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, and Hezbollah won the Syrian civil war because they were more willing to fight and die to win it. And, truth be told, all had far larger stakes there than did we.
We do not live there. Few Americans are aware of what is going on there. Even fewer care.
Our erstwhile allies in the Middle East naturally want us to fight their 21st-century wars, as the Brits got us to help fight their 20th-century wars.
But Donald Trump was not elected to do that. Or so at least some of us thought.
From the minute the globalists, arms cartels, banksters, and oil cartels decided it was inevitable, it was. That is the way the failing Amerkan Empire works now (and has for many, many decades).
our allies in the middle east, mainly Israel, are NOT allies. we protect them, give them financial aid and praise them to the world. what do they do for us other than corrupt our government with political influence to benefit themselves? an alliance would be a two-way, not a one-way street.
A funny thing about that picture. That wall is a part of the US Embassy in Tehran, which is now a museum of US imperialism. Notice you don’t see any lines for brick and mortar on the painting. That’s because the propaganda murals that cover almost every inch of the walls around the four block square compound are not painted on the brick but rather on large boards that are bolted to it. Thus if the US and Iran ever mended fences, all those posters could be removed to some warehouse for storage in a day and you would never know that they were ever there in the first place.
“Donald Trump may have put us on the road to war with Iran”, Don’t blame Trump; blame the voters that elected him (if someone gives a chimp a pistol, and the chimp shoots someone, you don’t blame the chimp!)
A chimp? Oops you goofed he was the last president , not the current one
Yeah MarshRabbit – correct – the retards gave that big, orange, balding, two-faced gorilla the pistol. As George Carlin would say – “not too bright folks – not too fucking bright!”
As for Chuck soli – maybe someone should tell him there is more than one chimp in the world (apart from the sodomite mongrel) . I reckon he voted for the balding one.
If I have to hand someone a pistol, I’d rather give it to a chimp than to a proven psychopath.
Bullshit Waran – who the fuck forced you to give the balding twat a pistol?
Misfortune upon you! You are responsible if you arm criminals – no one else.
Marsh……………..
The previous chump, er chimp, financially screwed the poor, middle class, and the country as a whole; but, the rich and Mega-Corps loved him.
Also, Trump inherited Libya and Syria from the Chimp.
So, blame the voters that elected the Chimp – I assume you were part of that bad deal.
kokoda still doesn’t realise that ALL monkeys take their orders from the same bleedin’ organ-grinder. He hasn’t a fucking clue! So – is Trump making peace with Syria and Russia? Fuck off kokoda you ignorant deceived twat.
“President Donald Trump may have put us on the road to war with Iran”
The key word here is “may”.
He may have, and probably more likely did IMO, put us on the road that avoids war.
Appeasing an enemy that has declared intent to destroy you and letting him develop the means to do it is not the way to avoid war, as Chamberlain quite literally demonstrated in the 1930’s.
Anon a question….
What is it as a bottom line that you think would appease the NeoCons, Likudniks and Whahhabists in the Middle East.
Well, Trump doesn’t fall into those categories, he’s probably the only thing standing against them at this point, but I think all those categories (including the Democrat and Republican elitists) want war.
It would further consolidate their control and power over the people and make them far less vulnerable to an overthrow by them.
They don’t expect themselves to be affected by it, but I’m thinking they’re wrong about it.
Sanctions are already an ACT OF WAR.
Blockades would be but I don’t think sanctions by themselves are considered an act of war.
Article 41 of the UN charter authorizes their use as legal if they are UN approved.
Oh, the UN says that UN-approved measures are legal by definition??? How quaint.
You know that UN “peacekeepers” of many different nationalities are notorious rapists and thugs, don’t you? But I’m sure that’s OK, because they are UN after all, so by definition they do no wrong.
Yes.
The UN sets international law.
That’s the simple reality of it.
You know, it’s funny how we were on the same side in 2001. When 911 happened, Iranians expressed condolences and felt sorry for us. We were actually kind of cool until Bush decided they were our Axis of Evil in a speech that wasn’t even proofread. I don’t necessarily like Iran, they’ve been against us my entire life, but I assume it’s the weirdbeard mullahs who primarily believe that, not necessarily the Iranian people.
Please watch this video. This is an Israeli guy explaining at TED how he posted an anti-war pic saying he loves Iran and doesn’t want to fight them. They posted the same back. Soon, thousands of people were posting friendly messages between the two nations, undermining the official We-Hate-Them dynamic between the two nations. I’m not naive, but it’s heartwarming to see common people try to break out of the barriers imposed by their “leaders.” I wish we were more open to this same thing here, but I imagine the average American would say, “What is Iran?,” or “Well, of course those jerks love us. We’re America! USA! USA! USA! When do we eat?”
The question should be, does Iran pose a threat to the mainland U.S.? If the answer is no (my choice), then we should STFU and let them be. The very idea of the U.S. “sanctioning” other countries is ill-founded. No wonder we have gangs on the streets.