Guest Post by Eric Peters
Out on the open ocean, a tsunami is almost impossible to see; but as the wave gets closer to shore, it builds and swells and all of a sudden, it becomes extremely obvious. By then, of course, it is too late.
Consider what’s happened to Mazda an early warning of what’s coming.
It is the first major car company to become a four cylinder-only car company. All of its 2018 model year cars – from the compact Mazda3 to the full-sized CX-9 (reviewed here) are powered by four cylinder engines no larger than 2.5 liters.
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No more sixes – even in the Mazda6. Which used to offer one.
This is the wave of the future – unless someone (Trump?) rescinds the fatwa issued by the federal government during the last few month’s of Obama’s presidency. This fatwa decrees a near-doubling of the current “corporate average” fuel economy mandatory minimum from 34.1 to 54.5 miles-per-gallon by the 2025 model year.
There isn’t a six cylinder-powered car on the market that can make that cut – which is why Mazda isn’t selling them anymore.
Others are following the example.
For instance, Honda. The just-redesigned 2018 Accord – which is a mid-sized sedan that weighs close to 3,400 lbs. – now comes standard with a 1.5 liter “earth dreams” four. A turbocharged 2.0 liter four – also “earth dreamy” – is the largest optional engine available.
You used to be able to buy a V6. No dreams necessary.
The Chevy Camaro and Ford Mustang have both dropped their formerly standard V6 engines, replacing them with . . . turbocharged fours.
More will follow suit – because there’s no other option. If they don’t meet the CAFE mandatory minimums, they get hit in the head with the equivalent of a sock full of quarters – those “gas guzzler” fines you’ve probably heard of. These are Uncle’s vengeful way of countermanding what the buying public wants.
Uncle claims – bizarrely – that CAFE and the “gas guzzler” fines are necessary because otherwise the mean old car industry would build nothing but “wasteful,” fuel slurping cars. But no one is forced to buy gas-slurping, “wasteful” cars; all the car industry can do is offer them for sale. And if no one buys them, why would the industry continue to offer them?
Isn’t it pretty obvious that if buyers demanded cars that average 54.5 miles per gallon, the car companies would respond to that demand?
Why wouldn’t they?
Uncle’s argument makes no sense.
It’s Uncle – the government – which is immune to demand. It decrees – and imposes. And it does so counter to the demands of the people, yet has the gal to claim it is acting on their behalf.
Force is Uncle’s stock in trade.
Uncle’s concern isn’t that people wouldn’t be able to buy “efficient” cars absent the CAFE edict. His concern is resentment that people are still free to choose – and that many people place a higher value on attributes other than fuel efficiency, such as performance.
His intention is to deny them that choice – or to punish them for making it.
An interesting aspect of this is its class regressiveness. CAFE most hurts the average buyer, the person who might be interested in a middle-priced car such as a Mazda or a Honda. Such a person’s buying decision is influenced to a greater degree by a price difference of say $1,000 than the buying decision of an affluent person shopping for a BMW or Lexus.
BMW, Lexus and other higher-end car brands – and their customers – can better absorb the price-jacking effect of CAFE. This is why V8 are still available in high-priced cars but have been eliminated – or nearly so – from the cars within the buying power of most middle and working class Americans. Before CAFE, working and middle class Americans routinely drove full-size cars with V8 engines.
Thanks to CAFE, such cars have become cars for the rich only.
And the really scary thing is there’s not four cylinder-powered car on the market right now that can make the pending 54.5 MPG CAFE cut. Even the hybrid Toyota Prius falls just short – the current model rates 54 in city driving, 50 in the highway, so not quite there – so it would actually incur “gas guzzler” fines under the 54.5 MPG standard.
If Trump does not rescind the fatwa, the vehicular landscape is going to be very different in a few years. What we’re seeing now is just the swell out at sea, before the tsunami approaches shore.
2025 is only seven years from now. In “product planning” terms, every car on sale right now will be replaced by a redesigned successor by then. The car companies are in the decision-making stage right now. What will these 2025 model year cars be like? That will be decided, to a great extent, by the regulatory fatwas they will have to comply with.
If Trump fails to rescind the 54.5 MPG fatwa, the industry will be faced with the task of figuring out how to nearly double the mileage of every car they currently sell – or try to sell people cars that have suddenly become much more expensive to buy, because of all those “gas guzzler” taxes aded to the MSRP.
Things are coming to a head – and it’ll be obvious, soon.
There’s a joke commercial on Rush that makes fun of such fuel efficient autos. The new owner of one speaking to his neighbor says “They only made 3 this year. To keep up with demand”.
I just happened to be at the dealer renting a car as they were celebrating the sale of their first all electric shitbox. As i was renting a shitty four cylinder shitbox, that drove like shit. You have to stop your foot to the floor to get the thing moving. Garbage.
“This is the wave of the future – unless someone (Trump?) rescinds the fatwa issued by the federal government during the last few month’s of Obama’s presidency. ”
Trump doesn’t have that authority, all he can do is submit a petition to the Court asking them to change it by approving his petition.
As has been demonstrated frequently since he took office.
In any event, I really don’t care how many cylinders an engine has as long as the performance it delivers meets my requirements. Let the engineers worry about that, I don’t design engines I just use them.
Nope! Trump can fire the libtard communist judges. Open up all our energy resources that the libtards have closed….which he has already starting to do. Trump is playing chess and the snowflake, evil, communist, muslim, NWO, libtards are playing checkers! It is so much fun to watch!!!
Trump can’t fire judges.
Judges don’t make these rules anyway, it’s an administrative agency that does that…And Trump can certainly fire them when their term is up, if not before, and influence their rulings greatly….
So how would he do that, fire the Judges? What in the Constitution gives him the power to fire Judges?
I’d really, really, really like to know that. As many times as I’ve read the Constitution I’ve never seen this power given to the President.
Hey tard…. it’s your dumb ass that probably voted
For another hope and change dumb ass
That paid no attention to the rule of law and got away
With it cause he was mixed race moron … so sad
Shits given: 0
My 43 year old 6,000+lb Oldsmobile is my preferred ride.
If we want to incent people to conserve gas, the simplest and most logical thing to do would be to just raise the gas tax by $1/gallon or so. For most vehicles, that’d be ~$500/year. If you want a V8, fine- you just pay for the cost to run it. The other advantage of a raised gas tax is that it would hit those who don’t pay any income taxes. Like illegals. But since people get unduly bent out of shape about the gas tax, we get the convoluted CAFE rules which – as Peters points out – raises the cost of a vehicle AND limit the choice of available vehicles.
Why is gas use or any choice the government’s concern ???
If you think they are comprised of (SMART) people
Raise taxes? Seriously… you must be a public employee
Wake up !!!
Absolutely. The government has no business with your private driving decisions..but liberals always want to tell you what to do….
The only positive aspect of CAFE regulations maybe getting those sizde large skin headed cops out of their big patrol cruisers and putting them in a Ford or GM econo compact and laugh at them as they struggle to catch some kid in a old Mustang GT!
Wrong. The CAFE regulations only affect the little people.
Nothing will ever be able to convince that America isn’t in the state of Roman Imperial Decline unless I see an ad for a NEW large, rear-wheel drive sedan built on a separate chassis frame and equipped with an inline six, straight eight, or a V8 also with a standard shift transmission. When I see that then there will be hope.
There was, until production stopped in October. The Chevy SS sedan (Commodore in Australia) hits on you entire wishlist, (except for the “Frame” thing) Big Sedan, V-8 and manual Transmission.
Guess what? Nobody bought them, sadly. There may even still be a few in stock at some Chevy Dealers.
One reason I like body on frame construction can be seen in this 1971 crash test video showing what happens when big cars hit subcompact cars. It’s pretty gruesome:
However there are always exceptions to the rule. AMC ( the old Nash company) invented unibody construction back in 1940 and they knew how to do it.
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When oh when are we going say enough is enough of this tyranny. What we need is a ten or twenty million person march on Washington DC by people well equipped with guns and ammunition to defend themselves. Who will organize such a march because the time for talking with the traitors and gangsters who have taken over our nations is over as far as I can see. Who will the National Guard and military support – the traitors or the people of America? Peters is correct in stating that things are coming to a head and it will not be pretty.
Not gonna happen.
It would have already happened if it were going to, but it didn’t.
Let’s do a TBP poll. Who would be willing to march on Washington DC? I would go with enough advanced warning and planning with speeches, posters and peaceful demonstrations. But it should only take place if there was massive turnout. The key is organization, leadership and buy-in by diverse groups.
Meh. Call when it’s torches and, uh, “pitchforks”.
What you morons don’t understand,but, the people who write CAFE standards do is that we have almost pumped all the oil out of the US.
The estimates for future recoverable oil is from 30 bill. barrels to 60 bill.
We pump 4 bill. barrels a year. Yes, 7 to 15 years left.
A new car sold in 2025 -when we may have pumped almost all the oil we have , will last 20 years. Till 2045. When for sure we will have pumped all the oil ( give or take 3 million barrels a day-1 bill. a year ).
Or, you can buy your oil from Iran-saudia-russia. What do you have that they want?
The good news is that by 2025 at least 1/3 of all cars sold will be electric, and by 2040 almost all cars sold will be electric.
No, by 2025 it will be likely that most of us will be dead due to the fucking morons in our government and the remaining survivors will have reverted to wiping their ass with one hand. There will be little thought of electric cars much less any kind of car.
Ding! Ding! Winner, winner! Coal Clinker gets the Chicken Dinner! Collapse is coming. Our “system” is so complex, such a house of cards, that almost any small tremor will cause it to collapse.
When even the high intelligent group of Nordics in MinnyMousesota will elect a pathetic wretch like Mark Dayton, “I own mucho stock in Target” as governor, there is no hope the general electorate will force the politicians to make the necessary changes in time to avoid the collapse.
Whichever of us emerge from the brief, horrific period of chaos, we will need to somehow manage the period of adjustment to re-establish a leaner, meaner country. The governments will survive, because they, most especially the central government, have hoarded resources to carry them through the chaos and succeeding lean years.
If we are at all likely, the DSSA will change from a central government system to the federation, with a federal system of governance. Switzerland comes to mind. I hear people babble about the founding fathers, Geo W., Jefferson, et al. They were the founders of the federation destroyed between 1860 and 1865. The founding fathers of our current central government system were Lincoln, Stanton, et al, and the shadowy figures who financed them. Shadowy, if you don’t work to understand the pivotal events that changed our past and led to our present woes.
The remote manufacturing plants of Scott Paper will also survive and be able to resume production of their rolls of bleached paper. However, the transportation network necessary to transporting those paper products will take considerable time. In preparation, I have taken to buying rolls of thin paper in bulk and burying them in water tight military surplus containers. I am also training myself to wipe my ass with one hand.
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Snowmobiles might be more useful that cars in a couple years anyway.
I’m sure glad I have horses. When the grid goes down (for which ever of the panic scenarios comes true) and there’s no gas, I can get from A to B. I can even eat the shitters if it comes to that. Maybe I’ll hook my ponies up to the chevy. REAL horsepower.
The cycle of impose future milage standards – only to have them reversed before the drop dead date – is standard practice. If you don’t believe me ask Ralph Nader. I have seen at least three incarnations of it. But slowly things do get better. I had a 1973 Jeep Commando with a 258 straight 6 with a two barrel and it did good to get 13mpg. Even when I put on a custom manifold and a Holley 4 barrel. The Turbo-Hydramatic 400 three speed would chirp ’em in second gear.
I have a 2003 HD 4 door diesel truck that gets twice as good milage doing 70.
Peak oil? Don’t believe so. Just masters of manipulation. Anything to decrease foreign dependence it a good idea in my book.
Peak oil does not mean that it’s not available, it means that it gets more and more expensive to acquire.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12182-017-0187-9
Excerpt:
This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around 350 Bcm/year (or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year (or 91.9 EJ/year) around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI (energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.
Thank you for that information. It seems reasonable and tells me China should help keep things stable in the ME. I have heard variations of it since the 60’s when children of diplomats, intelligence folks and other Third Culture Kids shared their deep thinking about the ME. It is why we are there, i guess, since Lawrence of Arabia crossed the Negev.
TCK
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_culture_kid
Don’t worry, in a few years you’re going to be riding around in a tuk-tuk with a repurposed La-Z-Boy for a seat and little tassles and fringe and hand-painted decorations on the front. The driver will sit in front with a rag around his face and you’ll inhale the smell of unwashed bodies, open pit latrines, and thousands of other tuk-tuks all jockeying for space on the crumbling roads as you make your way to your new “job” digging through the landfill for E-waste and other useful “resources”. Just another day in paradise.
OR
Don’t worry, in a few years you’re going to be riding around in a flying car with a cool microfiber seat with individual climate control for all occupants with a lovely synthetic leather lining. The driver will be an AI program with an adjustable accent and male/female voice option which will instantly respond to your requests. You’ll inhale the smell of new flying car and see the other flying cars taking leisurely routes above the legacy roads as you make your way to your new job overseeing internet regulations. Just another day in paradise.
Which one do you think is more likely?
In the 70’s it was always an adventure to take a Turkish Dolmus. Sort of a communal vehicle /taxi van. Uber for the masses. Our AF base hospital would routinely receive accidents where 20 folks were packed in a van had an accident. Broken arms required x rays and you better not cut off the gold bracelets from the arms of the female injured.
I would be happy if all engines were 1 cylinder… 1 cylinder of a super-efficient generator that charged a battery which powered 4 hub motors…
Being 4 Cyl isn’t new car’s only problem. Now they prob also have 8 speed auto trans. POS shifts 3 times before you cross the intersection. Would cost all three legs to to replace, too, I’m sure.
So, took my original post down? The truth hurts, doesn’t it?